 What's going on and welcome to the solo shot? My name is Tom Vecchio. We have a five-game MLB slate. Tonight lock is set for 707. As always, this is one of the many shows on the Fandall Podcast Network. You can find that anywhere, whether it's Spotify, whether it's Apple Podcasts, you name it. Make sure to give it a like, follow or subscribe. Leave a review that'd be greatly appreciated. And you can follow me on Twitter at Tom underscore Vecchio1. Before we hop into things, the NFL Sunday Million is live on Fandall. Put your NFL knowledge to the test and create your best nine-player roster while staying under the salary cap and then using Fandall's live scoring feature. You can follow along and compete for your share of the 1.6 million in prizes with first place taking home $300,000 all for just $5. With your choice of stars like Josh Allen, Tyrick Hill and Christian McCaffrey all set to take the field on October 1st. There are plenty of big names to use in your lineups. Sunday is coming quickly, so head over to Fandall and get your lineups in today. Eligibility restrictions apply. Go to Fandall.com or download the Fandall app for details. All right, let's get into today's five-game MLB slate. We are down to the final two days for the podcast. If you have been here throughout the season, listening to Jim, obviously, for the majority of the season or listening to me over the past month, I appreciate you being here to close things out. Let's hop in starting off with weather notes for today. The Mets are at home hosting the Marlins. It's cooler. It's going to be in the low 60s. Wind blowing in at City Field. Already a great pitchers' park. Cooler temperatures. Wind blowing in all positives for pitching. There's also a little bit of rain in the forecast, probably as the game goes on. Let's kind of keep that in mind. Atlanta's on the slate. They're at home again. Colorado, Rockies, they're at home. So Atlanta and Coors Field on the slate. The Dodgers are at Coors Field. And it's actually pretty nice in both of those parks in terms of temperature. No wind issues there. So Mets the only rain note for today. I will say if you're playing the early Slade or some type of all-day slate, there is some rain issues in Philly. So kind of keep that in mind. Let's jump into pitching for today where starting off at the top, Jordan Montgomery at $10,200 is the most expensive pitcher. Followed by Jesus Lozardo at $9.7. Chris Bassett at $9.5. Logan Gilbert at $8.9. David Peterson at $8.6. This is really the top tier of pitching. And frankly, Jordan Montgomery is a little bit too expensive for my liking, especially given his salary and especially given his matchup. And while the Mariners haven't been super consistent as of late, there's still a good offense. And Montgomery is $10.2. And he's coming in with a 21.4% strike area, which is lower than the league average. And when it comes to a pitcher like Jordan Montgomery, the best way to describe him, which people have been saying for years about, not just him, but just this type of pitcher, is that he's a better real-life pitcher than he is a fantasy pitcher. A 21.4% strikeout rate is low. Sure, does he have a 6.1% walk rate? Is he only allowing 0.84 homeruns per nine? He has a 4.22 skill interactive ERA. Is he mainly a medium contact ground ball pitcher? Yes, all that is true. But fantasy upside comes from the strikeouts and Jordan Montgomery doesn't necessarily bring that. And I don't want to be rostering a pitcher that's the most expensive pitcher on the slate at 10.2. And he's not a dominant strikeout pitcher when there are pitchers that are less expensive than him that have higher strikeout upside. And sure, is the matchup against Seattle, like I said, a pretty good one yet, because Seattle right now, with their current active roster versus lefties, they come in with a 26.4% strikeout rate versus lefties, which is the second worst in the league. So they are very undisciplined at the plate. They are free-swinging. Yeah, Montgomery doesn't have a high strikeout rate in his own right, but he certainly has the matchup. And Seattle, yeah, they come in with a 115 WRC plus versus lefties with their current active roster, which is certainly good, right? That puts them as the seventh best in the league. So they strike out a lot, but they also put the ball in play. And they're also, you know, putting up some runs, which is not necessarily a matchup that I love. And again, considering Montgomery's salary, 10.2%, not really my favorite spot to be going when we have course field on tonight's late with the Dodgers, when we have the Braves on tonight's late. It's a five-game slate. Those teams are going to be pretty chalky and certainly want some exposure to them. We then turn to Jesus Lazardo for the Miami Marlins. Certainly a picture that I have much more interest in compared to Montgomery, although I'm not sure if Lazardo is my favorite pitcher on tonight's late. He's $9,700, a little bit less expensive compared to Montgomery. And Lazardo comes in with a 27.7% strikeout rate, which is significantly better than Montgomery. So just on a one-on-one basis between these two pitchers, I'm going to be siding with Lazardo basically nine times out of 10, maybe 10 times out of 10, given his strikeout upside. Now, as I mentioned, it's a little bit cooler at city field. There's some wind blowing in, solid factors in what is already a great pitchers part, but there's a little bit of rain, you know, as the game goes on. He's allowing 1.16 homeruns per nine. He has a 7.6%. Walk rate is a 3.75 skill interactive ERA. He has a 45.6%. Medium contact rate and his ground balls, fly balls are nearly identical. 40.4% for ground balls, 40.8% for fly balls. So he allows more homeruns compared to Montgomery. He has a better Sierra compared to Montgomery. He has a better strikeout rate compared to Montgomery. We should be going to Lazardo in this circumstance at 9,700, simply for the strikeout upside in his own right. Now, he's going up against the Mets. They come in with a 22.2% strikeout rate versus lefties with their current active roster. That's 15th in the league. So it's a league average matchup for Lazardo, which obviously isn't as good compared to Montgomery, who's going up against Seattle, and they have the second highest strikeout rate. But the Mets with their offense come in with a 98 WRC+, which is obviously worse than Seattle, who's up at 115th. So we're dealing with some positives and negatives for both of these pictures, but really Lazardo would be the picture that brings that strikeout upside that we so desperately want for the fantasy points. So one-to-one basis, I'm taking Jesus Lazardo over Montgomery. 500 salary difference isn't that much, but still a player I'll be going to. On the other side of that matchup for the Mets and the Marlins, for the Mets, that would be David Peterson. He's also a lefty, and he comes in with a 25.8% strikeout rate. He comes in with a 9.9% walk rate, which obviously isn't great. 1.38 home runs per night and is a 3.94 Sierra. So his Sierra is better than Montgomery. He has a higher strikeout rate. He does allow more home runs. I'm expecting those home runs to regress, considering he has a 24.8% fly ball rate, which is actually very, very low. It's super solid. So he's not allowing a whole lot of fly balls. He's mainly a ground ball pitcher at 54.8%, but he's giving up too many home runs relative to the amount of fly balls that he's giving up. So I'm actually interested in Peterson's night, and I'm mostly, mostly interested in because he's 8,600, and that is a really, really favorable salary considering, again, we have coarse field on tonight's slate with the Dodgers, and we have the Braves. So it doesn't really make sense to pay up, at least in my mind, to pay up for Montgomery. When he's this pitcher that's good in real life, and what you'd be hoping for is, you know, six or seven strikeouts because of the matchup, you want the QS, you want the wind points from Texas, you know, for him to get that, just to validate a salary, which I don't know if it's going to be happening tonight. It's not like Seattle's an easy offense to go against. Sure, they may not be consistent, but they're still a decent offense. So Peterson and Lazardo really are taking a step ahead of Jordan Montgomery. Then we get to Logan Gilbert on the other side of Jordan Montgomery. Logan Gilbert tonight is $8,900. We look to Logan Gilbert and he has a 24.6% strikeout rate. 4.8% walk rate is so low. That's great to see 1.32 homeruns per nine. He has a 3.79 Sierra, which is absolutely awesome. He comes with a 54.6% medium contact rate, and he's barely a ground ball pitcher this year at 41% compared to fly balls which are at 40.6%. Now, again, the matchup for Logan Gilbert isn't easy going up against Texas, but I'd still prefer Logan Gilbert at 8,900 ahead of Montgomery. I will take every bit of salary if I possibly can. Not to mention that Gilbert has a better Sierra and a better strikeout rate compared to Montgomery. So that's really where I'm looking up at the top. We have Chris Bassett here at 9,500, and he's kind of in the same situation where he's not a big strikeout pitcher, 21.8%. I think his salary is a bit too much. He's allowing 1.31 homeruns per nine. His matchup against the Yankees doesn't seem to be a good one. The Yankees are all of a sudden scoring a bunch of runs. You know, these past couple of games against the Blue Jays when they were in offense, we'd be looking, or we've been looking to attack over the past however many months. They just haven't been good this year. Now, against Wrighties, the Yankees are still struggling with a 24.7% strikeout rate, which is the sixth worst in the league. They also come in with a 94 WRC plus, plus which is 23rd in the league. So right now, the Yankees, I guess a two-game sample size or whatever it is, however many games, they're putting up some runs against Dimebacks recently and now against the Blue Jays. And it doesn't really set up to be the best match up for Chris Bassett considering he's not a high strikeout pitcher. So why not just find the extra 200th salary to get to Lazardo who's a better strikeout pitcher and is probably the best strikeout pitcher on the entire slate, if we're being honest. So that's really where I'm looking at pitching. It's kind of a mixed bag tonight. I think Lazardo and Peterson are probably the two best options. If you want to drop down and go with one of these less expensive pitchers, I mean, there's really no one I have interest in lower than David Peterson. That's really what it comes down to at $8,600. So Lazardo, Peterson, Gilbert, Montgomery is probably the order I would rank them. Montgomery, I think, is just too expensive tonight for his potential ceiling of fantasy points. Let's move on to stacks for tonight. Again, we have the Braves. We have Corse Field. It's a small five-game slate. So as I've said before, I don't like to talk about the Corse Field games too much. It's pretty much given. I think the Dodgers are going to be incredibly chalky tonight, just given the fact that it's a small five-game slate. The Mets and the Marlins, as I said, that game has some rain issues. It's also at City Field, which isn't a great hitters' park at all. It's also cooler. There's also wind blowing in. All the factors are lining up for great pitching options at City Field. So we're kind of eliminating one game between Miami and New York for great hitting options. Then we have Atlanta. And Atlanta is always a great option. And then we have Corse Field. So these are all pretty clear of what we want to do. Now, like I said, Montgomery is a super solid real-life pitcher. He's not allowing a whole lot of home runs. He's keeping the ball down. He's not allowing a lot of hard contact. That's all ground balls. Medium contact from Montgomery, which does allow him to cruise to six or seven innings, whatever it might be. So when it comes to hitting on tonight's slate, it narrows things down pretty quickly, where we want to go to the Braves. We want to go to the Dodgers just because these two teams are incredibly clear. And again, I think specifically the Dodgers are going to be super, super chalky, going up against Chris Flexin. And I hate to belabor the point about the Dodgers and their offense, but it's just so incredibly clear that with Chris Flexin allowing 2.15 home runs per nine, the 16.1% strike area, it's just all bad news for him with a 5.08 skill interactive ERA. So again, the priority sign is probably going to be paying up for the Dodgers who are incredibly expensive. As always, normally now they have an extra boost, obviously, because they're at Corse Field with Mookie Betts at 4900, Freddie Freeman at 4600, JD Martinez at 45, Max Muncie at 41. Four hitters that are all above 4k is difficult to get into your lineups, which is why I think David Peterson is one of those options we should be looking to tonight. Now, I still have a lot of interest in the Blue Jays tonight, and they're going up against Luke Weaver. And despite some of his recent outings for the Yankees recently acquired by the Yankees, I still don't think Luke Weaver is a good pitcher. And there's just too much that backs that up to kind of negate that. He's had a couple of good games at the point that I'm making, and we can't just take a few good games and negate this sample size that we've seen from him over the past however many years, including all of this season, when he's allowing 2.03 home runs per nine this season. And this is the largest sample size we've had from him. He has 119.2 in his pitch. This is the largest sample size we've had from him since 2018. Every other season, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, he's been at 65 innings or fewer. So this is the largest sample size we've had from him in literally five years, and he's allowing more home runs than ever. So this is legitimately the most accurate sample size we'll have from him. 2.03 home runs per nine, an 18.9% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate, he's a 4.72 skill interactive ERA, he has a 39% fly ball rate and a 37.9% hard contact rate. He's not a good pitcher. I know these recent games have been good for him, one against Pittsburgh, take that with a grain of salt, but it's still not a pitcher we should be super worried about. So when we turn to the Blue Jays tonight, and like I said, the Blue Jays, a couple losses in a row for them, they are in must win scenario, absolute must win scenario with them coming down to the wild card, which they are a half game ahead of the Astros. So this is like must win territory for them as we get to the final four games of the season. So I don't know if we want to like factor in that desperation, but it is still a legitimately good match of them against Luke Weaver. And Vladdy absolutely is going to be one of my favorite options tonight at 3600. When we look to him in this split, he comes from the 201 ISO, which is something that we absolutely love. We want him getting him into the lineups. Now outside of Vladdy, this is where things get interesting because there's actually a lot of value when it comes to the Blue Jays lineup. It's varying in how good that value is, how much we should be prioritizing that value. And ultimately that value does help us open up the rest of our lineup when it comes to roster construction. So this is really where we have to be prioritizing some of the hitters. Dalton Varshow 2700, Matt Chapman 2700 as well. Chapman has kind of fallen off a cliff since the beginning portion of the season. Kevon Bezio 2500, Kevin Kiermeyer at 2400, and Alejandro Kirk at 2300. So there are multiple hitters that we can be going to, sub 3K, that allow us to pay up for the Braves or the Dodgers who are very expensive. Dalton Varshow 181 ISO, Kevin Kiermeyer has a 174 ISO, which is pretty solid. Matt Chapman is at 168. Boba Shed is at 157. Kevon Bezio is at 157 as well, and George Springer is here at 149. Now I'd prefer if we're dealing with essentially similar power upsides for some of these hitters. Frankly, I'd like to skip over Boba Shed and George Springer and I know these players are great and multi bag upside, stolen base upside, multi hit, multi RBI upside for both of those players. But what do we need when it comes to line of construction? We need that salary relief. And if we're getting similar ISOs and that power upside from Kevin Kiermeyer and Alejandro Kirk, 24 and 2300 is pretty good. Now in terms of the stacking and where they are in terms of the lineup, you know, Vladdy's obviously going to be at the top of the lineup, Kiermeyer, Kirk are generally at the bottom portion of the lineup. So you got to mix and match things in terms of how you want to stack the hitters. If you want to just go with the top and go 1234 or 2345, whatever it might be, go with that. But again, we have to be factoring in the salaries for these players. So the Blue Jays actually have a great match against Luke Weaver. I'm still going to be going with the fact that he's not a good pitcher regardless of these last two games. They are in must win games, which is desperation factor for the Blue Jays. They actually have really good power upside considering the salaries of some of these hitters that are sub 3k, which we desperately need tonight if we want to pay up for the Dodgers. So the Blue Jays are a very, very clear team for me on multiple levels tonight. The Braves obviously, we saw what they, I mean, we're seeing what they can do last night, the night before. Marcus Roman is going to be on the mound for the Cubs. He recently came off the IL. He's not pitching a whole lot of innings yet. They're working him up. I mean, if you've been following baseball to this point, you're seeing like, oh, the Cubs are blowing all these leads in September after the eighth inning or whatever it is. So Strowman, like, is having a good year overall. He's been struggling as of late before he went on the IL. He came back. He's not pitching super deep in the game. The point of making is that if they've been blowing all these leads, we shouldn't be worried about the Cubs bullpen. And of course, we want to be stacking the Braves any chance that we can get. And they're also extremely expensive with Ronald Cooney leading the way at $5,000. Metals in the $4,500. Austin Reilly at $4,000. Ozzy Albee's at $3,900. Marcel Azuna at $3,300. So between the Braves and the Dodgers, these players are so, so expensive that that is where the salary relief really, really comes into play from the Blue Jays. So that's where I'm looking very clearly for tonight's slate. Peterson makes a lot of sense, and he's making more and more sense at $8,600 just because he fits so well into Rosh construction. And Jordan Montgomery at $10.2. When you drop him in your lineup, you're left with $3,100 per player remaining, which is pretty tight when there are several hitters that are above $4,000 that we want to get into our lineups. So Montgomery is kind of a stay away just because I think he's too expensive, given relative to his fantasy production and fantasy ceiling. All right. So that does it for the stacks. Let's move on to the Dinger calls to close things out. I'm going to be rolling with Vladdy tonight as one of them just clear power upside over $200 ISO versus Luke Weaver. I think that is simply too good. And then for the Dodgers, a ton of great hitters for them top to bottom, but really liking Will Smith in this matchup, player can often go overlooked just because there's Mookie and there's Freddie Freeman. We have Max Muncie. We have JD Martinez has been super hot since he came off the aisle, all these sorts of things. But Will Smith is super, super consistent for the Dodgers. And he's under $4,000. He's $3,800, which I will take any time a player is under $4,000 at Coors Field. All right. So that does it for today's podcast. We'll be back tomorrow for the final solo shot of the season. Thank you all for being here. As always, this is one of the many shows on the Fandu podcast network. You can find that anywhere where there's Apple podcast, whether it's Spotify, you name it. The video version will be found on the Fandu YouTube page and we found on Fandu TV Plus. You can find on Fandu.com slash watch. You'd follow me on Twitter at Tom underscore Becky one. Until next time, good luck in your contest.