 Week 13 an NFL DFS brings us games. We actually want a stack. It brings us Limited bad weather it brings us some questionable but kind of fun value plays I think it's I know I said this last week too But I think it's my favorite slate of the year so far We're gonna break down those game stacks talk about where we can find value to make all these fun players work No, if we get you set for Sunday, which should be a fun slate over on fan dual calm This is the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number fire that's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as always By Brandon Gadoula. He is the senior managing editor of number fire calm and Brandon I'm a little too geeked about this slate worried about what that may mean given the way things tend to go get excited about a slate It sucks, etc. Etc. But I'm feeling good. How are you doing today? Yeah, I feel I think I feel best whenever you're like lukewarm on a slate And then we talk about it and then we then you feel better whenever you come into it Excited super excited, especially when I don't really see it then I feel like I'm missing something or I'm worried that you're Look, I love your process. I've learned a lot from you over the years, but sometimes You can bump up guys a bit more than I see and then I'm worried that I'm too low But then I'm also thinking maybe it's just a gym getting a little too excited So are you saying you don't think DJ Chark's hour should be sixty seven hundred dollars this week as opposed to fifty three Are you implying that that's not process here your enthusiasm of playing DJ Chark has me questioning everything I know about football about life About philosophy about love, you know Yeah, DJ Chark can make you question a lot of things. I agree that it's like if I think like Chark is fine at fifty three And you think that he should be 73 One of us can't one of us slowly it's gonna slowly increases the show goes along. What is what his salary should be? Yeah, yeah, it's 74 right now by the way in case you're curious Yeah, it's the only so we need like one of those like fundraising thermometers where it like slowly increases of the show Goes along DJ Charks up to ten thousand five hundred dollars. Yeah, it's thinking like a ticker But it's just DJ Chark salary and it just non-stop behind us Or maybe at the bottom with like yeah, they're little arrows, but yeah I know it'd be better if it's DJ Chark, but his salary is going up But everyone else just rotates they're in the same. So it's just a DJ Chark watch I'm actually making this because I can Okay this Okay Wait, it's not scrolling. Okay. I'm gonna you know, I'm gonna edit this here. We go scroll across bottom save There we go We've made it. This is why you watch on YouTube. You get the DJ Chark salary scroll with fifty three hundred dollars for a limited time only Buy one get one free. Can we double those points too? I might need that Yeah, if you play DJ Chark you get the MVP multiplier of one point five Oh, baby six points instead of four. Let's ride. Let's ride now We will talk about that lion's jacks game, which is of course the best game that's ever existed We'll talk about some game stacks talk about some injuries and hopefully get you set for week 13 in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed Wherever you get your podcast. We of course are never podcast Spotify Stitcher Google podcasts. You name it You can find us there and while you're there you like what you hear leave us a rating and review, of course with the Daily ISO being a daily show. It's important to get that right as posted So important to subscribe to give yourself more time before that MBA slight locks to get your research done and get your Lotups in so subscribing this time of year with NBA going very much important Also the 2022 NFL regular season has been jam-packed with excitement and this Sunday night will be no different Thanks to Fandall and direct TVs plan to give you more ways to win this NFL season introducing the direct TV Sunday night showdown a daily fantasy football contest on Fandall awarding $10,000 in cash prizes based around the most exciting part of the week Sunday night football Here's how it works Just build your best five-player roster while staying under the salary cap and follow along as the game unfolds using Fandall's live scoring feature Earn points for each stat your players accumulate and watch as your line of climbs the leaderboard the higher up the leaderboard your line of finishes The larger share of $10,000 you'll win. It's that simple the contest set to go live Thursday night So head to fandall.com slash league's league slash direct TV dash SNF and make sure to submit your picks before Sunday night That's fandall.com slash league slash direct TV dash SNF that contest again will be up on Thursday night Enter it then before things lock on Sunday Let's dig in now to the slate overview and Brandon when I look at this slate The key thing that stands out to me is we finally have high totals tight spreads which means I can go back to my baseline process of Game stacking those games those potential shootouts and feeling good about them for the first time in a while So that's my key thought this week is game stacks are back, baby. What stands out to you looking at the slate? Yeah, so I think it's like a lack of value like a lack of obvious values at least by Thursday morning And so we're gonna talk we're gonna talk DJ shark. We're gonna talk like is a Jones I think that I think that really what it's gonna come down to is I Did you charge like that? $3,000 every time we mentioned DJ truck salary but bumps up on it. Exactly. We're not gonna keep track of that, but They're gonna be Like they're gonna be value plays that I play more out of Necessity than preference And I might as well play them in the games that could have a lot of points because as we talked about over You know this season whenever we do some you know, the early season trends are a little bit more, you know, theory-based the value receivers Tend to hit their ceilings more Obviously whenever they play, you know weak past defenses and they're in games with high totals or games that score a lot of points Which is hey the most obvious thing But it can also be really easy to overlook that and try to you know play a one-off such as like a Like a Drake London and in a team that just doesn't want an offense it doesn't want to throw So I think that I'm gonna have to be okay Allocating a little bit more salary or embracing a little bit more uncertainty in some match-ups that at least should have points Yeah, I think that that's that's important is we will need to make constellations this week I know we're there to get to those game stacks and that's okay because Consolations, I think typically if they come at the expense of floor, that's okay If they come at the expense of ceiling, that's where we start to get a little bit uncomfortable some stuff So we'll talk about those value plays talk about our view of them and hopefully talk ourselves into that So we can feel good about these plays for this week. We'll dive into that all later on Let's start things off with injuries first one is not an injury to Sean Watson will return following an 11 game Suspension for the Browns he missed the first 11 games this year following more than two dozen accusations of sexual assault or sexual harassment For the Browns David and Joku missed practice Wednesday with the knee injury though apparently It's a different knee injury than what limited him last week. That's concerning there We'll talk about the Browns in the trend section Aaron Rogers confirmed He'll play this week despite his oblique injury Romeo Dobbs also returned to practice that you're missing the past few games This ankle injury we have not seen Dobbs Since Christian Watson kind of established himself Would re adding Dobbs which mean we have Dobbs Cobb Dobb Cobb Dobbs Cobb Lizard Lizard King Watson all at the same time would that make this passing offense a cross-off for you? I don't know if I really change it because I don't think they want to play Dobbs if they don't have to it Seems like she was getting targets begrudgingly Um Maybe that's just how I'm reading into it because I have Dobbs on a dynasty team where I could really use him But I don't think that he's gonna step in and overtake things I am not super into this passing offense to begin with I like Aaron Jones this week I could see the case For Watson, although the fact that I don't know his salary yet means I can't like him that much 65 It's okay. It doesn't leave you a lot of wiggle room though So that's one of those like Christian Watson or Zay Jones at 64 and like a Like role-wise you'd prefer Watson show though Zays like role has been really good. Yeah, so like I'm probably not gonna find myself getting to Christian Watson this week and that's the only game on the site that actually has weather concerns wind speeds They're 14 miles per hour and no other game has wind speeds higher than seven, which is just beautiful and I love it Um So that's the one there I don't think I want to get here just because they don't want to throw they might not have to throw here They spread things out. So I'll be lower on the Packers passing game Justin Fields limited with his shoulder injury in Wednesday's practice He said that he still saw which keeps things very much up in the air Darno Mooney done for the year So Fields would be returning to a worse situation than he had previously So we're probably not getting to Fields regardless But how would Fields availability impact are you a guy like David Montgomery against a very very very very bad rush defense? Yeah, Green Bay's 30th in rushing yards over expectation per carry allowed to running backs I think it's a I mean obviously it's a good spot for Montgomery. I think that just the temptation of Fields on the field Would be good for Montgomery my my main concern and I know that like you like Montgomery I like Montgomery a little bit less. My concern is That they just don't really have the ball a lot. Yeah Green Bay again There are two tap fast forward team on DVR because they don't snap the ball Till they have to lead by law with one second left on the play clock But I just I fear that there's not a lot of plays here and when there are plays There's not gonna be a lot of passing efficiency Because Justin Fields strength has not been passing efficiency to begin with I can't imagine that gets better Now that he's not able to run with that threat and also the injury so I Like Montgomery, but I think he's games that's only I'm a little bit higher in him because I so we were often last week or I was at least you were too I don't know why I said we were just me. Um, I Was often because I was worried about offensive ineptitude. I was worried about His salary was weirdly high matchup was tough and salaries come down matchup is a lot better this week. They're at home I Didn't think Sunion played well, but that's not like a shock But seeing get a hundred yards when so many things were stacked against him did change my view of him So I'm okay with him. I'm potentially gonna have to be okay with him outside of game stacks like So he's similar to Damian Pierce where they're both on hideous offenses They're both in plus matchups from a rushing perspective and I feel better about Montgomery getting there than I do about Pierce The difference is $500 which goes a long way this week. That's a significant difference But I do feel a bit better about him than Pierce I probably will wind up using both, but I feel a bit better about Montgomery personally Yeah, I feel like the like a good to be to is Etn and Pierce Versus like Dalvin cook and Montgomery and I feel like I'd rather get to Etn Of course, this is not a you can only play one of David Montgomery or Damian Pierce, but right? I'm Give me an exposure level for Montgomery So I think I'll be as of now a bit more spread out this week than usual kind of peppering five four to five guys that are relative Things I would guess 50 ish 40 to 50 is where I'd want to be I don't really want to go above 50 if I do that of obligation maybe But like my goal would be below 50 Hopefully, okay, so we're pretty close on Montgomery. He's one of the better running back plays at salary this week Okay, then I can get behind that for sure Let's talk now about the Ravens Marjax and let practice early on Wednesday to get treatment on a quad injury I didn't have a lot of interest in this team to begin with Because they're facing the Broncos, which that game will not shoot out Where are you on Lamar and Mark Andrews now that we know Lamar may not be at 100% Is someone who is always willing to pivot in spots that don't necessarily make a lot of sense. I Don't even think I'm gonna get there. I do that's reassuring to me honestly because I It does seem like a oh pivot Andrews week, but I agree. It's it feels weird The the Broncos literally cannot score points They don't and so I don't see how this game like you said is a true shootout game And I kind of need like it's not like their salaries are so low that it's Like reflective of this matchup entirely Denver's also seventh in rushing yards over expectation allowed to quarterbacks fourth and rushing success rate allowed I don't know if like I just don't think it's a week to Have to get there. I agree. I'm not gonna force it in a bad game Jamar Chase not a bad game seems very likely to return this week from his hip injury He spoke to the media after Wednesday's practice, which is typically an indication. He'll get the green light Joe Mixon limited in practice and sounds like he should be cleared from concussion protocol by Sunday On the opposing side could areas Tony missed practice with his hamstring injury The chiefs also signed Melvin Gordon after he was released by the Broncos Jerick McKinnon didn't practice on Wednesday with a hamstring injury Juju Smith Schuster missed with an illness Not sure what that means. We'll talk about this game in the bookmaker section I'm sure you're shocked to hear that Christian McCaffrey didn't practice Wednesday due to his knee soreness Elijah Mitchell is done for the regular season due to his knee injury We should be able to assume the McCaffrey plays. I think that's fair to assume if he does though Would you be able to trust him to get a big enough workload to pay off his salary at 82? I don't know if if McCaffrey game like a true classic McCaffrey game is gonna come through workload I think it's just gonna come through efficiency and having some big plays. So I Don't think that he's gonna get what do you have like an 81% snap rate in that game without His second game with the team when Mitchell didn't play Yeah, the first games the final game before Mitchell came back. That was with no Debo, I believe as well I think that sounds right Yeah So I don't know if it's gonna get to 80% I think they'll probably keep him around 65 if I had to guess. I was gonna say I think it looks like it's Pro football back was saying looked like Patellar to the tendonitis, which is a lot of big words I don't really understand but he said that like you want to limit the workload when that's the case So I feel like they're gonna keep it at 65 if they can I think I have that so We're not I mean, I'm basically Christian McCaffrey is what I'm hearing But I mean I see no difference So I think that there's there's a potential for McCaffrey's though to go for like 125 scrimmage yards and a touchdown or maybe two touchdowns because he's gonna have a pretty solid usage rate whenever he's out there But I don't think that this is a must-play situation. So look, we're gonna talk about games to stack This is not one of them, but I think that you could easily differentiate by playing like McCaffrey and some dolphins or Other 49ers potentially sure if you're working on a calf re. Yes So like I think for for me the question of the cafe is can he torpedo me for not using him He can make me regret not using I know that but can he torpedo me? I What what a sign of point value to those two terms like I'd regret it if he got 25 and I didn't use him Okay, I Get torpedoed if he got 30 or 35. I could see that I like I do think that the 25 point game is still within this range of outcomes for sure But I think the odds he like he like stabs me in the heart for not using him or lower than they usually are Especially after McCaffrey 82 or ETN ETN Well depends on practice sports throughout the week for injury for ETN, but Yeah Yeah, we'll see. We're he most regarding the limited practice Wednesday after missing week 12 due to a knee injury The team could also be without his two starting tackles for this game You'll talk about the dolphins in the trend section Mike Williams missed practice Wednesday with his ankle injury He didn't play last week and seems likely to sit this week to we'll talk about the chargers in the bookmaker section Travis ETN took part in the Jags walk through Wednesday. He was listed as limited He missed most of week 12 with a foot injury though. He was reportedly cleared to return We'll talk about them in the bookmaker section Najee Harris missed practice Wednesday due to his oblique issue Jalen Warren Was cleared to return got a shafty tweet. He practiced in full So for me the Jalen Warren situation has been okay, Najee's banged up my missus week It's the Vince McMahon gift. There is a progression of excitement. Oh, Najee's banged up Oh Jalen Warren cleared to return and got a shifter tweet. Oh Jalen Warren was full in practice. Oh Jalen Warren's been sneakly kind of good this year. I've fallen out of my chair So push me prop me back up. Where would you be on Jalen Warren if Najee can't play? Pretty high. Yeah I was hoping you'd talk me out of this one like that's your role here. You're supposed to talk me how to do in dumb stuff And you're not doing it and I'm upset about that Yeah, well, I don't know my role and I'm not gonna shut my mouth if we're gonna keep up with the WWE content here, but I don't know what that means. I don't know if that's a reference or if that's just to have words Okay, Jim we're gonna we're gonna say I am but I am now a full WWE bro because they were in Providence this past week and I saw their semi trucks I did not go in because tickets were $28 and it's a little bit higher than I want to spend for things, but you know I'm here value. Yeah So I Kind of just simplify this one. It's like Assuming no Najee like would you play Najee Harris at 5,000 and I would with no Warren. Yes, I was yes like My one fear here is that on Monday night They were clearly aiming to limit Najee Harris early on. I think yeah early on. Yeah Yeah, he got hurt early on but yeah It seemed like they were okay to sort of mix in Benny Snell McFarland as well I Could see this one blowing up in our faces a little bit And we find out Jalen Warren finished with the 52% snap rate and was has 7.9 fandal points but I Think for the salary and what he opens up this week in particular I don't have any value plays. I like right like there's no value receivers. There are really good tight ends on the board Yes DC chart and DC church salary is going up and up and up. So we have even one one fewer Value play I think I would have to embrace some imperfection for such a low salary and I think the fear you mentioned is legitimate, which is why I initially had like tepid enthusiasm around Warren because like, okay, like Snell played well McFarland played well They could ease him back in the and my thought process was okay If if if I have five different single entry teams in five different contests, you know I'd probably put Warren on two of those roster assuming he gets in a full practice by Friday The fact that he got in a full practice on Wednesday I thought was very encouraging that actually shifted things quite a bit for me And then the other way you could look at what happened Monday night is that oh The Steelers rushing offense has been better recently, which they are based on my data They've been a lot better recently than they were previously That could mean that Warren is more efficient in the touch as he gets so it could work both ways I think it's more likely to work against us For the reasons you mentioned. That's why I wanted to keep enthusiasm low But if I want to get to my home's Kelsey stacks if I want to get to you know, Christian Kirk Amon Ross St. Brown game stacks stuff like that. I do need to find guys who can save salary Warren has played legitimately good football this year. He has nine fewer receiving yards and Najee Harris on 100 fewer routes on 18 fewer targets. He's been more efficient as a rusher He hasn't been like great as a rusher, but I think part of that's because he missed one of their better games Or they've been blocking pretty well, so I Feel like I'm getting closer like if he is taking off the injury report on Friday I'm getting close to 80% and do I feel good about that? No, like that's higher than I want to be But like realistically on this slate. I think I'd have to sit around 80% for a guy in the situation at that salary Yeah, and we're always cautious with value plays specifically value running backs Whenever we don't know now. I liked Antonio Gibson last week. Whoops. I do but there's a there's a bit of a difference between Assuming what's gonna happen and assuming that Gibson's role from the week prior was gonna stick and just saying hey Najee Harris is out. We know that they they like Jalen Warren and there are anything tangibly changed here. Yeah And there's a big difference between a salary of even low six thousand and five thousand correct It is really hard for Warren On even roughly 50% of the snaps to bust so hard that you can't overcome it because He's actually opening up enough salary for you to have the guys who can have the torpedo games to use the term That you're talking about so This is different than just punting or running back at five thousand to get access to my home's Kelsey stacks This specifically would be a spot that I'm willing to go even though it's not necessarily Guaranteed and I think that if he weren't earning snaps pre Before his injury if he weren't playing pretty well like getting a lot of buzz I'd be lower But that stuff matters. He's been getting buzz since training camp honestly like I had him on like best ball dynasty rosters Be like preseason when their waivers are still running because of that stuff. He's been getting buzz for a while So I think that does help me too. I'll say this like let's say let's go back to the 49ers. So there's no McCaffrey No Mitchell this is different than saying like I'll take a chance on like Ty Davis price or something because we don't know Correct what's gonna happen. We have a better idea about Jalen Warren. Yeah, Tevin Coleman 163 yards incoming in that one. Yeah Rex Burkhead in this practice Wednesday with a concussion Damien Pierce's production has really fallen off the past two weeks But Burkhead being out would probably matter here. Would Burkhead sitting impact review of Pierce at all? I Think Pierce's borderline One of the better plays at running back despite the fact that the production hasn't been there Just doesn't score a lot because his team doesn't score a lot. Dexon's were really past heavy last week with with Kyle Allen but As much as we just look at data and we like joke about Birthday and like home state narratives and all this like weird stuff. I do mean joke Who's joking? I'm assuming that Houston is gonna come out and play tough here and The one thing you can do specifically on the Browns is run So I think they would try to establish it get Pierce as much work as they can and Even if they're trailing they might just try to you know run the clock out so that they don't lose by 21 or something. So I think Pierce is in a decent spot. The biggest question is how much Popularity he catches how much the optimizers love them. That's the fear but I think Subjectively it's a really good spot and objectively. It's still a pretty good spot. So he is catching steam right now in terms of optimizer stuff and Based like early week Rostri projections are largely based on optimizers, which they should be that's smart process So he's popping there I'm curious how much that gets bumped down with people being annoyed by how bad he's been because he was popular a couple of those times Right where he flopped because that matters My confidence in him as a Chalk play would increase if Burkhead can't go like I think he'd be worse He'd be worse shock if Burkhead plays and if Burkhead doesn't play. Yes, I think that So usually I am overweight on running backs I like almost always because I'm willing to be very aggressive with him I think I'd be if he were popular I'd be okay being more even with the field than above weights I don't think I'd really want to be above unless Burkhead sits in which case. I'm more okay with it. I Feel like again, I think I feel better about Montgomery than I do about Pierce That could be wrong like that could just be a bad read by me, but that's not right now I do as well but it's You know 500 can go a long way again I'm assuming ETN is good to go if he was cleared to return last week It seems like they were just being a little bit cautious with it But yeah, I think Pierce Don't just look at the the game logs and say like he's completely toast, right? So the game logs like three games ago. He had a hundred yards in scrimmage Like he's not it's not that long ago that we saw competence I think Kyle Allen, there's a good chance. He's an upgrade from Davis Mills Like you didn't really show it in the first half last week But like he said they were past heavier that could be positive. So they changed quarterbacks for a reason He's also had some tougher matchups and this isn't as tough on the ground. I mean, so for sure Yeah Michael Carter missed practice Wednesday with an ankle injury James Robinson was an active last week sounds pretty peoed about that role He would likely be active if Carter were to sit but they clearly like a zone of a night more than they like Robinson So any interest in night if Carter sits? Yeah Sort of I don't know if he has he has it to Completely Make me regret not using him at 58. I'd rather use Warren at 5,000 and have the extra savings by a mile That being said Like I'm not gonna be able to play Justin Jefferson at all just because it doesn't make sense to prioritize him If I'm building 10 line-ups I might throw in like I might build a core that I love and then just tweak it so that I get like a Jefferson and Sure night stack, but I don't think I'm like prioritizing around night because this is another one of spots where we can Projects that will keep the role built on the role that we saw last week But maybe not necessarily run away with a 75% snap rate Yeah, it's not a breeze all the jets haven't committed to any running back this year. They've been rotating guys in and like, you know, I Know sorry to bring up Reese my bad It hurts me to don't Can't wait to lay his back. He's so good. I think that I'd be okay avoiding this one unless Warren if unless we don't get Warren a lot of other stuff happens, you know stuff like that Mike boom return to practice for the Broncos on Wednesday They also released a divina zigbo, which tells me that they plan on boon returning this week Can we cross off Latavius Murray if he wasn't already crossed off because of this? It wasn't his salary like 68 or something. I think it's 64 64 Um Right, I'm not there this team There's one team that I fear less than any other team to score points and it's it's this team. Yeah, they're the worst James as a tweet that Russ was the QB 33 in season long scoring last week. I Didn't double-check it but What backup like Like maybe it was like a tason thing. Oh, yeah, yeah, I don't think taste was from any points last week Whoops Yeah, good what a what a fall from but hey half the team went to his birthday party. So it's all cured now, right? Richie James missed practice on Wednesday with his tweet factor in the Russ birthday narrative. No, okay Anyway, um, Richie James this practice Wednesday with his knee injury played through it last week on a short week So I think he'll be good to go Daniel Bellinger logged limited session with his eye issue May be able to return this week tough match up here for the Giants any interest in their passing offense against Washington I'd like it more if I like the game. Yeah So probably now. Yeah, I think I agree the Rams will be without Matthew Stafford Alan Robinson Aaron Donald in addition to Cooper Cup this week You'll talk about the Seahawks offense and trends as they're the only thing worth discussing in this game But I do think that the Rams being dusty does negatively impact my incentive to go at the Seahawks here Let's go into the bookmaker section and talk about these very very fun games for this week highest total on the slate is also The highest profile game of the week that is a cheese at the Bengals total is 52 and a half up from an open of 51 Even on a good slate this one is an outlier in terms of projected offensive efficiency by my numbers So how you stacking this puppy? Yes Yes, just firmly agree could not push back on anything there So I talked like my slate overview was being okay Allocating a little bit more salary in games that I like. I think Isaiah Pacheco Checks that box. Okay at seven thousand where I don't lower on him on Monday if I recall correct Yes, because I think that it's imperfect and I think that seven thousand is too high for what his role is So it's the context of this game and the slate that pushes you higher on him. So like I would rather play Let's say I'd rather play Pacheco over Montgomery But I probably should given the game environment. Okay So like it's a spot where I I wouldn't play Pacheco if this was like a neutral game It's seven thousand but because it's this game. Sure. I'm I'm open to it Yeah, I'm open to him as well. Just to get exposure to this game kind of as you were saying He's had 80 plus yards and scrimmage in three straight games the three where he's had an elevated snap rates he Got like a creative target last week where he was set out wide put in motion ran a slant caught the ball and you know They pretty well with it now the Melvin Gordon thing. I think we'll worry people about Pacheco I've seen some tweets on the tweeters about how that negatively impacts Pacheco I think it's actually more likely to negatively impact McKinnon because Like they're kind of empty snaps and he's out there Gordon, I think at this point is for a better in the passing game than he is as a runner Pacheco's Like rushing stats are pretty decent both from a success rate perspective and a rushing yards over expectation perspective So I feel like it's more likely to impact McKinnon now McKinnon's back on the injury poor once again at the hamstring injury I feel like that all kind of adds up to make Pacheco an okay play I don't think I'll get there other than game stacks because it's a lot of flimsiness to that role But like I'll get there in game stacks because if it makes it easier to get to a Joe burrow T Higgins lineup, I'm okay with that making that consolation Yeah, I mean like Pacheco doesn't really have the receiving production necessarily, but he does run routes I am very invested in him for season-long purposes. So anytime that I'm watching watching him on the field I'm looking to do what he's doing. He does a lot of motion. He's out wide enough So like yeah, they're bringing in Melvin and they might not have Jarek, but I still think that like Pacheco could take some of that role Yeah, and get an extra target or two. So I Still think he's a bit over salary just because he's a chief running back and they will do Literally anything they can just read the ball around at the goal line, right? But men would rather run a QB sneak with a tight end they go to therapy their backup tight end I should clarify who is a great idea. No, great, but you know, yeah it I Don't know this for sure, but they have to have like the most dispersed red zone roll from X expectation From there like between the 20s target share versus yeah inside the ten or five. Yeah, I agree What do you do? Yes, I was gonna ask you about that This practice Wednesday due to illness Probably means he'll be good to go. The problem is that it adds in one more like layer of uncertainty around him part of the reason they said that his snats were limited last week was because He wasn't a full practice. Although he was listed as full at all week Which was kind of odd to read that I was So this is like conspiracy theory tinfoil hat Jim was like were they limiting him because they knew they had this game coming up And didn't need him to beat the Rams Kind of thought about that a little bit, but then I thought that's a little bit too complex every game in the NFL matters Etc. Etc. So I feel like I'll wind up using juju quite a bit in game stacks despite my concerns. What about you? I will I'm not gonna say I'm gonna use him as a one-off necessarily, but I am gonna I know I'm gonna be in this range because I'm basically taking a mid-range approach throughout the lineup Maybe unless we get Warren, but even then just one one value play doesn't necessarily mean you can play all the superstars or anything like that So I'm looking at him in his salary of 6,900 compared to some other names Like I'll take juju in this game with his limitations over Coralton Sutton at 72 against the Ravens I'll take juju over Terry McClurrin at the same salary against the Giants The only guy I wouldn't take him over is Devontae Smith as a one-off As a one-off I would take Devontae Smith over him by a mile Yes, so next on the list is Devontae Smith I would rather play Devontae Smith at 68 than juju in a one-off lineup For sure, but because they'll be stacking this game I might have a closer lineup distribution between juju and Devontae than I I would have thought initially but Devontae by far is the better play Devo Samuel has been banged up George Pickens at 67 like I'm gonna take juju over those guys Yeah, aside from Devontae, so I don't know if you have any thoughts now maybe on Devontae Smith specifically, but Yeah fair enough Yeah, I think that outside of game stacks, I might not be in this range a lot honestly because I want to I guess no, you're right. I should be balanced. You're right. You're right I'm just I'm staring at him at home's Kelsey lineup and it's like I need to be Stars and scrubs to make this happen, which is even with war and it's like it's tough Yeah, it is difficult and While those lineups can definitely exist and probably should exist if you're building, you know multiple multiple lineups this week I just don't think it's gonna be my primary way to get exposure to the week. Yeah, so I'm gonna be in this range a good bit. Okay. What do you do with Jamar Chase and Joe mixing off their injuries? I'm good to go at Jamar Chase I think he'll probably be under rostered due to the fact that people don't Seem to love playing guys coming off of injuries and his seemed pretty serious. It almost seemed like Senator the IR maybe end the season kind of serious I don't think he's the best Process play. I think he's more of a game theory play of we know who Jamar Chase is and this game could score 70 points. I Think the better process play would just be T. Higgins Because Chase will draw some attention there. I'm actually lower on Nixon Because some odd GP run played so well and Like I don't I don't really know how often I'm gonna be able to play someone in an $8,500 salary at running back Like I'm gonna try to prioritize ETN, but again 500 goes a long way. Sure. So I Prefer Chase kind of what you were saying there Yeah, I Think the fact that he practiced as much as he did last week is pretty helpful the fact They talked to reporters Wednesday. I know these are very small things, but they do matter in terms of increasing confidence in them So I think that helps me with Chase quite a bit I prefer tea still at salary But and it doesn't honestly getting Chase back doesn't hurt me with tea because we saw tea erupt in a lot of games with Chase last year Target sharing games he played with Chase was 24% this year I believe with 32% of the deep targets and this offense is playing better now that it was before Chase got hurt So I prefer tea at salary Both these guys really tough to get to outside of game stacks or stinks but Hopefully I have enough in game stacks to cover my bases on them. Yeah, it's another one of those spots where I'm willing to Overpay to roster guys in great games These guys specifically really hard to prioritize though because the salary is just so high But the same logic applies to them where I want to try to get some more chase Even though the salaries way up there. So let's talk about the side pieces not like a weird way But like the other pieces other than the true studs in this game Tyler Boyd 15% target sharing games with Chase and Higgins at full this year 20% deep share Which is higher than I thought it'd be but still not ideal for 63 into dollars Hayden Hurst 13% target share Which is fine for a tight end but not great on the Cheese side of things They're getting juju back which means the guys running routes will probably be juju Justin Watson and Mark was Valda scantling Those guys don't earn targets. So I can't really get enthusiastic about sky more. I don't really want to use Tyler Boyd that much Can't go to Hayden Hurst. Do you feel good about any of those non-stud guys on this in this game good? No, but Would I rather play some of them? Then one offs in terrible games Maybe and it depends on like what the rest of the lineup looks like so if I if I'm building lineups stacking like Jacksonville Detroit and I Know we're like never again ever ever again with like MVS, but I'm never again. Yeah. Yeah I'd rather I guess I'd rather play Justin Watson at that rate, but MVS finally got targets last week and I was like cool. I'm not you're not on any of my rosters I benched you in like dynasty and stuff like that like you do nothing for me I just got mad every time we got a target last week. It was super You know, it's only got five even though Juju was limited and like Kaderis Tony was out stuff like that Just he's annoying. I'd probably be most inclined to play Hayden Hurst Because he feels tight end. Yeah, it's a Paul sit tight end What's his salary 53 53? Yeah, I mean like he I could see him having a good enough game where that's justifiable So that's fine. Will you use sky more cuz like he's the one Secondary option that we have here who has shown the ability to earn targets when he runs routes Which is like not true of MVS Justin Watson, etc The like even a 5300 the odds that sky gets again like we can literally think through what his best game is and it's probably like Aside from he just houses like a 99 year old play like 75 yards and a touchdown which I'll take sure but it's not gonna change. I don't want that doing my ceiling Yeah, so if that's your ceiling that you're factoring in You better hope you get everything else, right? Arma homes and burrow the top two quarterbacks this week In a vacuum yes at salary still very close to it. Yeah, I agree We could potentially save the salary though by talking about the Jags and the Lions Second highest total 51 and a half Lions now favorite by one at Fandall They're one point dogs elsewhere. It's been flipping back and forth overnight Totals 51 and a half Lions here by one at Fandall this game ranks second for me in terms of projected offensive efficiency So in line with what the sports books are saying there. We've got some fun pieces here potentially some value plays So what's your view of Jags Lions? I like it This is the kind of game where I wish the salaries were a bit better But even though they're not I'm just gonna suck it up and in go there. So like I'm on Ross ain't brown. So I'm gonna talk about all the time love him It's not like it's a huge secret, but he's a he's very very very good. Yeah at 8,000. I love the potential here I don't necessarily know if I can build around him I think Christian Kirk a little bit over salaried at 75 But in the matchup I'm willing to go there Yeah, I think the the main name that I'm like I think this is too high But I I'm gonna get there as a Jones at 64 I've had the same the exact same thought process on it where it's like it feels it feels high But also like not high enough to make me like say no. Yeah, cuz again you you put this in a game Against the Lions, you know, no weather concerns It's I know that it's it's too high right but for the potential he's coming up a hundred and forty five-yard game his Single-game target shares the past two have been like I have this in my he's one of my loves But like 28% like 38% yeah, he's really kind of separated over Marvin Jones Revenge so when they're in the nine full games they played together Zay said a 23% target share Marv is at 16% Marv does have a 36% deep target share versus 19% for Zay But that's not enough for me to rank Marv above him. It is a Marv revenge game. So there's that but I Think that Zay is well worth 64 and I would say probably beyond game stacks for me as well And in that range like the low 6,000 range, which is probably where I'll have to be enough for it to be worth discussing I would say Zay and Traylon Berks are my top two guys in that that range Berks at 61. What's the cutoff? 6,000 to 65 around there Then yeah Maybe maybe Donovan people's Jones Yeah, I'm a little bit lower. We'll talk about him later, but I'm more wishy-washy on him I prefer the the target shares of Berks and Zay over him Lesson Joku sits in which case DPJ is a really good place That's true. Yeah, so that could change things. I guess I didn't think about that aspect of it, but Yeah, like we have options here and then at receiver It just plummets and you're like well, maybe this guy can get four targets And that's not where you where you want to be Let's talk about the running backs here I'm not going to Jamal Williams the yardage upside is not good enough to justify a salary of $7,500 like yes touchdowns are good Touchdowns get you points in daily fantasy, but he has not had 25 points yet this year on Fanduil despite having I think the most touchdowns in football which kind of indicates that like we're talking about Torpedoing me for not using him. I don't think he can do that. So I'm okay I'd rather very Jones straight up than him. He's $100 lower salaried despite wanting to stack that game ETN's different ETN $8,000 he has had 25 points this year 25.6 and it was only once but don't at me He has a lot of yards upside a very good red zone rule in the full games He's had as the lead back for the Jaguars ETN's red zone rule 49% across four games 120 yards of scrimmage per game Jamal is at 69 yards per game in the five games of Swift being back So I'll go to ETN happily. I will not use Jamal not gonna use Swift not gonna use Justin Jackson the ball carrier What's your read on the running backs? Yeah, no Jamal for me I could honestly envision a game where he scores three times and has like 60 yards and it's like 24 points. Yeah That's probably a stat line. He's had this year for probably Yeah So the three touchdown game he had he had 64 yards and 24.4 Fanduil points I didn't know that beforehand but Like and I'm not I'm not saying that 24.6 Fanduil points is correct bad But he doesn't really have he doesn't have like a hundred and fifty yard upside at all So any I mean, I'm sure if anyone does he has like four or five touchdown upside sure that's that's getting a bit a Bit crazy. I think that for me No, no lines backs But I think I'm gonna be high on ETN and I'd rather kind of be in before like I don't want to take a wait-and-see approach It could burn me and like they could just try to mix in some other guys to keep him a little bit fresher But he was cleared to go to go back in last week. They didn't really need to have it happen which was a little frustrating but inject What he can do against this team in this game environment like He could be the RB one on the slate and it wouldn't surprise me at all I will lower him from a baseline perspective if he's questionable Like if he doesn't get in a full practice by Wednesday, that would hurt his outlook for me I'd still use him because it would lower his roster A2, but it would lower him for me if that were to happen Yes, yes, okay, so you mentioned him on Ross ain't brown. Obviously we are okay with him at eight thousand eight thousand dollars Tell me what your actual thoughts are on BJ shark like Independent of the fact that I think he's a fun value play. What are your thoughts of him? independent of that like I Could probably pick out and Maybe I can't But I think I could pick out some other options with like an eight yet. So last week he had an 80% route rate five targets Four of them at least ten yards downfield One in the red zone one of the end zone. I think that he is again because he's in this game. Oh No, I saw he's at 87 I think that in this game, I like it I Think that if he were in a neutral matchup, I wouldn't be there So I'm a little bit nervous that I'm just getting over excited now again The whole theme for me this week is to embracing some uncertainty or some You know like the salary's too high or the role may be a little bit misleading. So I like shark this week I'm just not nearly as high on him as you are because again, he's coming off of a five target game I Don't want to get like out over my skis and play like a hundred percent you do chart. Yeah, a hundred percent would be bad I need that's a lot even for me So the reason that I am high on him is We talked about you were talking before about we want our value receivers to be attached to good game environments Super high total the tightest spread you can have minus one away in the money line both sides in this one It is played indoors. It is against a non threatening past defense not a hideous past defense But the non-threatening one he has an efficient quarterback the best quarterback in football In the games that shark has had played full snaps 16% target share not what you want But a 41% deep target share and he has multiple deep targets in all four of those games He's had three in three of those four games Had a touchdown last week That's why I'm there. I will be there outside of game stacks as well I will need to consciously lower my exposure to DJ shark But you know He'll probably be 40% for me realistically, which is a lot higher than it should be for a volatile receiver At $53 hundred dollars, but that's probably we're gonna wind up. So we're talking, you know embracing some Uncertainty and really good games I would much rather play DJ shark than sky more because DJ shark to play run 85% of the routes You have an 18 19 percent target share Sky more I think still gonna be capped. He's gonna get some looks when he's on the field But I would rather take DJ shark In a fun game than sky more in a fun game I will admit that some of the check marks applied to DJ shark do apply to Marvin Jones as well $5600 gets deep work has and not great, but acceptable target share playing in the exact same game He has a better quarterback as much as I you know better quarterback than DJ shark does so I'll have some sprinkles of Marv, but I want it to be more so on shark because I think that there are better odds that he He's the number two pass catcher on his team whereas Marv likely third I was actually in a pop punk band in high school called sprinkles of Marv I'm moving on. Oh wait any quarterbacks are you in this game? I can see myself getting to Lawrence Touchdown Trevor. I can nickname last week. Touchdown Trevor. It's him. He is him Yeah, these two teams basically have I have the charges the best game environment For receivers, but these teams are next up. So yeah, I'll use I'll use Trevor The Jaguars are second in projected offensive efficiency by my numbers. So I'm gonna use him Gonna do off No, probably not you I could maybe I don't think it's a bad idea. I just don't think I'll do it So we like we talked Monday about a lot of a lot of upside quarterbacks potentially You can get pick most of them. Yeah other than like my home's in burrow So I think I'm a little bit lower on the quarterbacks and I think like if I'm if I'm playing Like a hundred and fifty entry something like that. I would have some Jerry golf lineups Probably I don't think I will but like I think I don't think it's a bad Recommendation by any means. I just don't know if I'll get there, but that's not bad Okay final 50 point total oscillate is the chargers at the Raiders total is 50 and a half the chargers favored by one and a half points here Obviously Josh Jacobs and Austin Eckler gonna great out well here Are they priorities for you given their salaries and what do you do with the passing offenses here? Um, I can't prioritize them realistically Let me see what this does if I play and we like we will stack running backs together in the same game because it's a Happily a good play. Give me like a punt defense. Who's a good punt defense chargers, unfortunately All right, so with Jacobs Eckler and the chargers defense I got 63 33 left. It's tough For three receivers a tight end of flex and a quarterback So even if I probably can't stack them would you use them? We use one of them without the other Like would you go Eckler with a Mack Holland stack? I could see that. Um, this might be the spot where you go like a jerry golf stack Okay, yeah, I think I think this game you can get to those guys if you have like Lawrence And like if you're stacking jags lions instead of chiefs bangles So one thing we talk about all the time And credit to you for this is like being different without being dumb Like while it's not the the smartest like standalone process play to load up on jared golf He's in a game that could have a lot of points jared golf can throw, you know numerous touchdowns and put up, you know 25 in this spot and if you're doing that to get exposure to like Jacobs and Eckler who Jacobs could have 300 yards again I wouldn't bank on that but like I might I Against the charges. Yeah, what's the what's the alt rushing yards? 300 But like Eckler, we know what his red zone work is. Yeah, if they combine for 50 between them um That's a way to differentiate without doing something like really silly and you know, this is different than Playing like Kyle Allen or something, right? So Yeah What are your thoughts on uh, well, I guess unless you had more to say I think we're pretty much covered there What are your thoughts on the charters past catchers? I think that's the big question mark here I was so annoyed with them last week I'm gonna use them again because I love using players against the raiders because they're trash Defensively, offensively, they're fine. Uh, but like defense like so last week They threw a bunch because the chargers just decided to charger 15 targets for Austin Eckler 10 for deandre carter 7 for keenon allen 7 for josh palmer now That's annoying, but it doesn't downgrade me on keenon at 7700 dollars I also do think palmer is someone play at 66 with the assumption that michael ends up because we've seen palmer have yardage upside 66 is not bad I think like we got We got zay jones. We got berks um In the 6000 range if we're gonna extend it a little bit and get up to palmer at 66. I'd prefer davontae smith. Um I think palmer's fine. He will be a part of game stacks for me As a standalone play, I definitely like I think I like some other guys more But I wouldn't be shocked if I wound up with some there Like if I've got too much zay jones already and at 66 left for my final slot I could see palmer being that guy being fun at it So last week would have been the only game with keenon, but without mike williams. That's probably Sorry, what was that? Last week would have been the only game with with jerald ever. It's Without mike williams with keenon. Yes. Yeah, um I mean palmer 100 route rate carter 80 percent Like I think keenon's obviously a great play. Yeah, it's just a matter of can I Really get there in a single entry or like my main lineup I don't know. I'd love to from a salary perspective. Probably not. Yeah. So I'm just gonna be such a um Mid-tier guy this week for yeah my my core construction, but that does let me, you know punt with a You know if dg charke isn't in my main lineup and I can just go like full balance Sub him out or sub out someone for charke and then use that salary to go up elsewhere Yeah, like a sub out a running back to go down a deal and warren like so I can live with that But yeah, I think palmer, uh, it is firmly in play At that salary for stacks I love keenon, but I just Again, and this is not a like I'm okay over over paying to roster guys in these games I think palmer fits that keenon echelor maybe Little like over salary each But I'm fine with it. It's just a matter of practicality and how often I get to do that What are your thoughts of mac collins, uh coming in at $5,900. I thought I was off of him like I thought I was done And even when we talked on monday, I was like, okay, I used him on the 4 p.m Only so I didn't feel great about it. It worked out but like If you look at his efficiency numbers this year like mac collins has played kind of well um Which I guess isn't a huge surprise because like he has talent It just hasn't gotten a lot of opportunity like but he's played well this year and the games they've played Since waller and renfro were put on ir Hollins is an 18 target share 26 deep targets Those numbers are not great, but not bad for this gaming environment. So where are you on mac collins at $5,900? Yeah, um, he's run every route for three straight games If you can get that kind of involvement Uh in a game like this, I'll take that. We know he's got downfield work. We know that he uh can get red zone and like end zone targets like I should just prefer him to Again, I'm like not high on sky more, but yeah But he's a good point of comparison hollands over sky more hollands over marv Because like hollands is basically the zay jones like second like quiro second option. So um I prefer zay straight up, but at the salary discount He's in the same tier as zay jones after considering salary, right? Yes. Okay. I agree that my question to you is mac hollands at $59 or treon berks at $61 Uh, it's a good question. Um Let me check out the raw target totals because I have berks's raw target totals on my sheet. I don't I have the shares for um mac so raw targets in those Three games 6 9 and 5 which is an average of 6.7. So that actually the exact same number as berks and his most relevant sample, which is his past three games Uh deep targets for mac 2 2 and 2. So that's a little bit higher. I think that uh berks is at 1.3 per game In his most relevant sample hollands no red zone targets, but berks has one touched on on the thumb of recovery this year So in a better game environment, I do like that that equals titans game too. Um Probably mac although that surprised me. I thought it'd be berks. Yeah, but I think it might be mac Yeah, again, you want to just Generally my talent perspective should I use like the freak is always built like a great god? Um Or should I use mac hollands, but you know Yeah, so I guess I'm in on hollands a good amount weird didn't expect to be here Okay, let's dive into the trends for week number 13 starting off with that dolphin's 49ers game You're talking about the dolphins what they've done against good defense. They haven't faced a time But what are they done in those matchups? Yes, it's weird. Um, again, you know Look for ways to be to differentiate without playing like a kyle allen and just like playing guys who don't uh Play a lot of snaps which I sometimes when I see lineups posted Um, so I forget who was here. Yeah, someone was posting like post your like can you did anyone have a worse lineup than this and I'm like Look, I placed him I looked in the thread there were some there was like it was justin for you to post it and justin's lineup was fine It was some of the replies like how did we get here? Like justin that was like, okay I can talk myself through everything that you did. This makes sense the other ones are like, ah yeah, um but If I see like 49ers and dolphins in lineups this week fit that don't do well I bet makes sense like This is not one of the big three games, but the total is 46 and a half We generally know where the ball is going especially for the dolphins, but You know san francisco has a tough defense Um, and there are seventh and adjusted past defense according to number fires metrics Tua himself has not really been tested that much Uh, the the dolphins have played four top 10 adjusted past the events this season But two of us injured during one of them missed the following game So we have to go back to weeks two and three When Tua played at least 90% of snaps in games against comparable defenses. Whoa Rosa is upset She's like you better not talk bad about Tua. Is the wingman not top 10 in past defense? Uh At the time Wait, that was week one Maybe I went my weeks wrong Because I have new English being like very good defensively But I could be wrong in that so Um, anyway, go ahead. Sorry. I didn't mean to bust up your flow. Go ahead. All right. Well, okay, then all right, so he He went off against the ravens And then against the bills. He had a really good efficiency as well 0.57 passing that expected points per drop back despite just 186 yards in a touchdown Passing success rate of 63% So he's been able to to do things in these tough matchups despite the fact that he hasn't had a lot of A lot of them. Um in these matchups g in the model specifically 36% target share With tirey kill at 24% but in eight games with two are playing a majority of the snaps Hill's at 29% of the targets 39% of the air yards Waddle 24% 34% respectively Each average at least five downfield targets per game, which for me is 10 plus yards downfield and at least 3.24 yards per outrun, which sounds wrong, but Checked out whenever I looked at stuff. Maybe I don't know how to do research anymore So take this all with a grain of salt and I'll I'll double check everything but Jeff Wilson and Reem Moser is expected to return this week But Jeff Wilson and Moser get revenge games Wilson 77% first half snap rate last week against the Texans Despite a down game overall from production But I think he's very playable at 68 even with Moser back I do want a cap exposure Because I don't know How much Moser will play and this is not the best matchup for him specifically, but You know Tua is a strange source of savings at 78 Hill's not a source of savings at all at 9000 Waddle 7900 like they're harder to justify but again This could be a really chalky week overall Um, and I think this is a way to differentiate. So do you have interest in the dolphins this week? If so, how are you prioritizing them? I do have interest I think that waddle would be the primary guy for me because the salary is super forgiving at 79 Um, and then Jeff Wilson I kind of want to get a read based on practice reports for this week Because if both he and Moser are full in practice, I'd expect to go back to their week Whatever it was roll where they were both healthy Wilson's second week. We'll also have like a 60% Snap rate very tough matchup Especially if you take out two offensive linemen, but I'd feel decent about him not great But decent I feel decent but not great about waddle. I think this would be a good game To get different without being dumb. I don't think I could do so with Tua personally. You it's okay I wouldn't push back too much if you disagreed of that, but um I think with waddle. I like it with Wilson. I like it. I love to get Tyreek But realistically I would need to use both shark and warren to get there Which is tougher that rather use those savings on like T et cetera et cetera, but like Tyree could go for 40 in this matchup because like he's amazing so I I should probably try to consciously make sure I get some Tyreek but not a priority for me like in terms of like Oh 40 roster rate Yeah, makes sense to me. I was trying to go up the two of stuff. I don't know what happened. Um, but He's still been good against yeah, he was actually getting that that Patriots game Yeah Like the team didn't light it up But they didn't have to because the Patriots did nothing in that game in that one They were 0.18 above expectation on early downs passing. They were 0.10 against uh, Baltimore and 0.26 against Buffalo So really good in all three of those games relative to expectation 0.36 passing I expect the points per drop back over expected in those games. It's pretty sick. So I'm on board of them Where are you with waddle specifically? I think because he's the one who's most interesting to me Like him don't know if I like him more than Keenan I'm sure I'm more likely to play Keenan I think waddle is better yardage upside sure does So I might go waddle, but I do like Keenan a lot. So it's not, you know, it's just more so liking waddle Okay, let's go to my first trend here and talk about the browns offense with Deshaun Watson again making his first start off an 11 game suspension For all the accusations of sexual harassment or assault. It's a very gross situation The surrounding context is a lot more important than football Uh, we also don't know how Watson will play here because it's his first game Since 2020 he said all last year too First game with a new team too. The browns offense was efficient under jacobi verset They're ninth in my offensive power rankings before I make the quarterback switch They're facing the 25th ranked overall defense So that should make us want to go there, but we're not catching any discounts here Nick chubb salary is $9600 highest in the slate We've seen cream hunts roll scale back, but that has not led to a big bump for chub He's averaging 109.2 yards in scrimmage per game That ranks sixth On the slate in each guy's most relevant sample His red zone share of 30.6% also lower than you like So chubb, he could skewer me for not using him very much. Good. I think his odds skewering me are higher than mccafrey's But i'm still having a hard time prioritizing him over josh jacob's awesome necler guys like that The passing game is lower salary, which is nice It's hard to know what the target distribution will look like With watson versus persets whether they'll go run heavy dies and back in a marie cooper's salary is 7800 dollars 28 percent target share in full games with david and joku 44 percent of the deep work 27 percent inside the red zone I can live with that salary with better quarterback play, but i'd prefer waddle over him prefer keenan over him Maybe i should prefer him i don't over keenan i don't know um, but that's tough In joku, if he were healthy would be in play 19 percent target share in his full games 29 in the red zone he I need to get him a full practice on wins on friday to feel good about it But like if we get that at 58 i'd feel good about him if in joku does not play I'd go to dpj donovan people's jones because 18 target share with in joku 25 deep, but he's had More than 75 receiving yards in both the games that in joku missed He's 6100 dollars. So if in joku does not play dpj suddenly becomes above berks for me He'd be above ze jones for me. He'd be above mac collins for me If in joku does play he's in that consideration set, but not a priority in that tier So as of now despite the matchup Like I think in joku be my favorite if he plays if not I would like dpj a lot, but i'm having a hard time Prioritizing guys on this team. What are your thoughts in the browns offense this week? Uh, yeah They're fine I think that this is one of those spots where the salaries are Too high but not because it's in a game that I completely want to stack up like nick chubb at 96 can burn us I still I always have a A weird thing with nick chubb like he's gotten over 30 points In one game this year. I know that there should be a huge upgrade from a quarterback efficiency standpoint, but His lack of receiving work, which I guess is getting a little bit better. There's some yardage with it with that, but He's got one path to destruction and I never like to play him whenever his salary is this high Yeah Amari is interesting Again, I think he's a little over salaried for a game where I I'm not going to be comfortable stacking it up and think that there's a ton of Production this is one of those weird ones where like if cleveland is ahead they might keep throwing it um harder to say But I also kind of view this one as uh, you know Sometimes I talk about the other team being able to run the ball and ruin the game I think that's what's what houston's game plan is going to be at home Yeah, um, so I think that it also could be cleveland's plan to just get survive this game Yeah, giving everything going on and then could be get out of there. So I'm just like low on this game I could see it weirdly both Being kind of a shootout somehow. Yeah, but also being like Again, just the clock never stops and it's the first game done of the one o'clock slate. So yeah, I think the salaries are just too high I have the most appeal and uh in joku if he plays or dpj if there's no in joku Yeah, the total here was I think 44 or 45 and a half went up to 47 and a half It is now back down to 46 and a half. So That's kind of in line with us or like, I don't know what to do this game. So Let's move on to your second trend. Talk about seattle. They're facing the rams. What do you see in there? Yeah, seattle a fun team um They're playing the rams, but I think there's like a cool trend here and uh, you know At a certain point in the season I worry less about game script because teams need to make sure that they win And I think that lessens the chance that uh teams just like lighten up too soon Um, but their pass rate has been up since week eight and I think it's really appealing Um in week eight against the giants. We saw the seahawks Yeah, the first week with the pass rate increase pass rate over expectation a positive 14.1 um The first time since week one that it was above 2.8 percent since then their full game totals have been a minus one Uh plus 14 again against the buccaneers. So sure that was game plan related and then a plus 9.1 percent So in total since week eight their pass rate over expectation is a positive 8.5 percent, which is the second highest in nfl and that split behind only gansas city um, they're also seventh and adjusted pace according to my numbers in that span so you know We already like the seahawks. I think this makes them a little bit more fun at least for their passing offense and For as many issues as the rams have decent rush defense. Um, I know erin donald Injured but uh, there's sixth and adjusted rush defense 21st and just the past defense So I think that the pass rate should continue To to be elevated here and since the pass rate spike In and in three games against like comparable defenses geno's average 30 point 34.5 pass attempts 273 yards per game two touchdowns per game We're not going to want to stack this game And I don't like to play Quarterbacks in games where I can't really bring anyone else back But I do think you could do worse than geno smith this week. It's 7600 Since week eight dk met calf at 7600 has a 30 target share He's averaging 10 per game in this elevated passing offense 45 percent errored share 47 percent of the red zone targets I think dk is like Really good process play if we exclude the game environment Kyle Lockett 7400 he's got a 19 target share He's just not as as good of a situation is met with mech calf. It's got less downfield work 2.8 targets per game mech calves at 4.3 Um Again, I think they're both playable and I think that that's playing playing locket and mech calf is not being silly Even in a game that's not perfect What I will say though is that this has led to some poor rushing stats for Kenneth Walker at 8100 I he's got 51 109 17 and 26 rushing yards on 18 26 10 and 14 carries over those pass games The targets are there sometimes two four eight and one I still like him because we want ceiling But I think that the the chance he hits the ceiling is a little bit less because they're not leaning on him so much To be a really efficient rusher Um, so I like I still love mech calf. I think he's a great one-off play Um, I'm there with locket. It is a differentiation piece I know that we're not going to bring it back with any rams But where are you with this offense because outside of the the main games? We don't have a ton to look at so you don't want to write off offenses Just because they're in a weird game. I will. Um, I think that the one I'm not going to need to de-care locket just because I like keenon. I like zay jet or christian kirk in that range I like waddle. Um, there's enough guys there. We're all gloss over them. That could be a mistake But that's fine. I'm okay making that mistake. What I wanted to ask though was could this be a situation where you use Kenneth Walker to be different without being dumb because like you said Even if his odds of reaching his ceiling may be lower. He still has a very good ceiling He's getting passing game work. He can bust off big runs. He lives off of big runs Which is bad for median expectation, but not bad for for ceiling So could this be a spot to Deviate to Kenneth Walker in a spot where the rams are suddenly down the best defensive player of the past decade Could that be a spot to pivot? Yeah, I think that's appealing. It's still going to be weird to go like christian kirk over dk metcalf um But I do think that there's appeal in this offense even though we're not going to bring it back And I think that I would look there in some one-offs Uh With walker with metcalf. I'm going to go etn over walker But sure walker walker or macafrey for you I think i'm there too based on current info unless we get really good news on macafrey's knee walker for me walker or joe nixon Uh nixon because of the game I think I might go walker there. Okay. I have a fear that nixon's coming back from my concussion is not gonna be joe nixon Would you have thought that without juju? Having limited snaps last week or no I'm not quite that reactionary I just hope that teams maybe don't run. I'm trying not to be that reactionary But I had that same inclination which is why I was asking you because that was kind of my knee jerk reaction on nixon Was like uh worried because of what happened to juju but Yeah, I mean I like walker. I like metcalf. I think that they're They're guys you can put up big game because again if if a team wins by a lot Somebody has to put up those points and with this team specifically We know which three guys can do that I think walker is a fun pivot, but he's not more than a pivot to me. Uh, that's why that's fair Okay, let's talk about the eagles and their passing offense. I alluded to Devonte Smith being an awesome play. Let's talk about why I talked about the eagles here without dallas goddard Um pretty high profile match up here for real football is the titans eagles Titans should be able to move the ball in the ground at therek henry. I do like trail on berks of value again Eagles are interesting too. The titans defense is solid But they're just middling against the past both by my numbers and by number fires numbers which use number fires numbers We don't need to talk about that So we can use guys facing this team as a takeaway But this passing offense has struggled without dallas goddard There are three worse performances of the season in terms of really down passing efficiency relative to expectation Have been their pass three two without goddard and the one the game that he got hurt They've still been very good on late downs. So it's not like the world is crashing here But they're struggling Jalen hurts has still crushed her fantasy, but it's been based on his legs almost entirely 157 yards last week rushing. He had a rushing touchdown into the previous two games Even with that rushing output. He has not topped 30 fan to a point since week two I'd need him to be pretty low in terms of projected roster rates to prioritize him over mahomes burrow Even trevor lorenz. I think which might be weird, but I can't go at the past catchers though in those two games divante smith 38 target share with 2d targets per game 1.5 red zone targets per game His salary of 68 He is a cash game Consideration borderline priority for me aj brown Would be a fun tournament pivot of people gloss over him, but it is a revenge game So people will probably be there 27 target share in the two games despite dealing with an illness last week He still has a typical ceiling You know, I'm high on smith I'm good at brown But you know worried about kim getting steamed due to the revenge game lower on hurts than I thought I'd be for this week How are you doing the eagles and will you consider stacking this game? uh Not really because not not really to the stack um Unless i'm just gonna like berks and receiver Yeah, like berks and you're not actively seeking out a stack You're like, oh, I've got berks. I've got 68 left. Let's stack it up with divante or vice versa. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah my question to you though is like The eagles like aj brown divante Or like locket and metcalf. Oh, this is one of those where like this game eagles by a mile That's surprising why Because I know I understand the case is better for game script here, but I use seattle every week I love seattle. I love dk. I never feel bad feeling at a roster dk metcalf in it I just hate that game environment. I hate it. I despise it And I think this game has more much much much much more shootout potential I don't know Why The opposing quarterback for one team is brice perkins the opposing quarterback for the other team is ryan tana hill Who has been very efficient this year sure huh I'd rather get punched in the throat. I'd rather get punched in the throat and stack the rams see not stack Okay, I'd rather get punched in the throat than depend on a back and forth affair by using dk metcalf You don't need a back and forth affair dk metcalf. It's like 40 percent of the targets Against the team that's going to get torched We've talked about teams as big with big spreads Receivers still get yardage upside top receivers get yardage upside dk metcalf by far their top receiver I'm not saying he's like the guy the first guy i'm looking at but I don't want to gloss over dk metcalf. I would consider a straight up betto divante smith versus dk metcalf this week but the problem is i'm doing divante smith because of Ceiling not because of floor. So I wouldn't do it, but like i'm definitely not ceiling there for dk In that matchup his ceiling is reduced because there's gonna be no back and forth no push pull I can get push pull in this game because the spread's been tightening and like That's that could legitimately happen Yeah I understand How things work. I also understand that dk metcalf in a blowout could have a huge game With all of his peripherals. That's all i'm saying Bet me straight up I I would do How about this no, no, how about this? Some of the total I take the two eagles receivers you take the two c aux receivers No, because then you get it's this isn't an a g of brown versus Tire lock it the net salary is basically the same I'm saying saying I like dk metcalf Do you like it more than keenan? It's close I'd bet that one I prefer keenan, but it's close. Okay. And what i'm saying is No, people probably aren't gonna play dk metcalf because of all of this and I think that's a little silly Yeah, it's not gonna You know, oh dj try to sell it's going to $9,300. No, oh well, okay Maybe the algorithm thought we were saying dj when we're when we were saying dk So it just went up. I agree. Okay weather for this week Luckily, not much only game with noteworthy weather isn't chicago for the bears and packers wins at 14 miles per hour Oh darn, I guess I Can't use chase clay pool on his three targets. Let's move on to the positional plays for week number 13 Brandon who stands out to you a quarterback on fan duel this week Uh, jeburro 8300 burrows in a really good game environment high total tight spread chiefs 13th and adjusted past defense But that's not really enough to worry about you kind of only care about the outliers Against four defenses in the mid tier. So just Because of this is what fit for him 12 through 18th for him Uh, 248 yards one and a half touchdowns, but 0.16 passing that expected points per drop back over expectation 53 success rate If i'm trying to get a little bit different, uh, if I can't get to my homes I still like justin herbert at 81 facing the 30 30 second ranked adjusted past defense in football They faced one another already, but that was early in the year. Um, I have him as the best game environment Overall for any quarterback in my game environment scores Herbert versus past defense is 26 or worse, which is five games 291 yards per game 1.8 touchdowns at 48 success rate with good efficiency as well I love herbert in my player pool. I can say that for sure because I just love that matchup for him Um, love the game environment and like a herbert with keenan with josh jacob stack is really or matt collins is Or divante, it's really fun. So I'll have him in there for sure. My first love is patrick mahomes shocker Um, I am willing to get creative with the rest of my lineup to jam in patrick mahomes at $9,000 If easily the highest projected single team efficiency on the slate for me It's the highest game wide efficiency, which is good for stacking Mahomes has at least 20 rushing yards native the past nine games, but just one rushing touchdown at that time So could be due for some rushing touchdown positive regression. I'll take that for sure at the homes My second love is trevor lorenz. I love burrow. I love herbert But lorenz is facing the lions who have allowed the highest a dot in all football by a pretty wide margin so far this year The jags ranked second in projected efficiency by my model We've seen lorenz run a little bit more recently. They had a they had a design run for him a couple weeks ago Which was pretty fun. He's $7,500. I will use touchdown trevor this week now that he officially has taken the nickname away from trevor simian Uh trevor simian is back to being long balls simian by the way Just in case you're keeping track of nicknames at homes long ball simian no longer tutty trev Tutty trev is trevor lorenz running back. What you doing there? I'm assuming that trevor's etn will be for in practice by friday based on The fact that he could have returned last week and didn't um, I know he's limited But seems like they're just okay to be cautious and at this point. Why does he need a full practice on wednesday? That's why you know, that's that's just how i'm thinking about it But facing alliance team that's 32nd and adjusted rush defense 27th They're worse in rushing unexpected points per carry rushing success rate and adjusted fandal points per carry allowed to running backs Kind of thankful the salaries not higher um, if he was like 85 i'd Don't know if I could quite get there, but I think things really drop off before etn. I had dalvin cook here, but I know salary matters. Um And I'd rather I I will find 400 to get up to etn over dalvin cook second love erin jones 7400 sounds like erin rogers will play uh jones because the bears were 20th and adjusted rush defense 27th and rushing yards over expectation per carry allowed to running backs um 94 scrimmage yards per game on the year. I'm gonna need salary I'm gonna be in the mid range. I think jones Is going to be the guy until the packers are mathematically eliminated, which will be fairly soon, but They should win this week My third love would be jamon warren If we knew nodgie was out But for now It's damien pierce I think it could come back to burn me I know that the upside could be capped But if there's no wrecks and in this match up against the the browns who are 26th and rushing yards over expectation per carry allowed to backs 30 second and adjusted fandal points per carry allowed to backs as well. I think that The workload should be there for him This team I know pierce Not really involved in this but they should have motivation and this offense should flow through gaming pierce In a matchup that he should be able to take advantage of Burke had being out would really Move the needle for me on pierce. I'd feel a lot better about him if that were to happen My first love is erin jones because the bears stink, um, you know, I all respect to the bears But you know, they're not very good Jones has had a really good soon in this year. He's had 150 or more yards and scrimmage in three separate games Only josh jacobs has done so more often this year, which is wildly considered with jones's workload. He's just very good He's a good football player 71 snap rate last week for jones. He's had 26 or more adjust opportunities in four of the past six games $74 against terrible defense Sign me up, baby in that same game though. My second love is david montgomery I'd feel better about him if fields were to play. I don't think he will but last week montgomery 113 yards and scrimmage Against a very tough defense the packers not tough at all salary comes down to $7,000 the bears Slimmer underdogs this week than they were last week I closed at least I think closed seven and a half six and a half Depending on the the spot or depending on when you were at in the trevor simian drama that timeline there I wouldn't expect montgomery to get a lot of attention So I want to go there for this week. My third love. I'll just go jail and warren if you if you know If we don't get that situation who cares, you know figured out from there. I do. I'm okay with deanian peers Um, but jail and warren has played well this year was earning snaps before nagi garrick harris got hurt. He Was full in practice on wednesday. He got a shaft or tweet You can't check many more boxes than that He catches passes should get goal line work bad defense playing in a dome I think it's everything everything lines up well for not for uh, jail and warren So if we get him without nagi, I'm higher on him than I expected that be around 80 ish percent at that point uh for jail and warren Can't check many more boxes than that here seven more boxes that he checks Let's go to hydra save what you got there. Uh, davante smith 6800 single game target shares over the past few weeks 32 percent 39.1 percent 36 percent In that span, he's got a better weighted target share in downfield work than aji brown better red zone involvement as well Which is basically what weighted target share of line does but runs more routes. Um, I know that jim and i were bickering but we both loved a bunch of smith and Again, I like him over juju smith shuster in that tier Let me be the first to say second love I think i'm gonna stick with garret wilson At 6600 he's salaried up 600 from last week after scoring twice, but You know, I've talked in the past about how we shouldn't chase guys You score because their salaries go up production almost always comes down But I think he was just under salaried probably before then he's maybe a little bit over salaried this week, but The vikings last in catch rate over expectation allowed to receivers allow 1.87 yards per route run to the position Which is basically like a christian kirk marquise brown type um, minnesota is a bit of a pass funnel as well Um wilson's got a 23 target share on the year and my third love is a jones I'm just living in this 6000 range for receiver Again, I think he's over salaried, but it's just an elite game environment lions 29th and adjusted past defense 29th Also in catch rate over expectation allowed To receivers and last in yards per route run a lot of receivers as well Single game target shares the past two games 26 percent 38 percent I think i'm gonna have a lot of say I think that's fair. My first love is jalen waddle thinking about it more. I just kind of want that yard is upside kenan Kenan's good. I love kenan full respect to kenan allen I don't think he has 170 yards in his range of outcomes jalen waddle does maybe on 20 targets Which he might get I don't know but yeah, yeah eight out of five because the chargers are the worst, uh, but Waddle's had 85 plus yards seven times this year. He's had a hundred plus four separate times He has a 36 deep target share and two as healthy games, which is a lot higher than it was earlier on this year He's Low salaried exposure to a great passing offense. I will take that for sure My second love is also divante smith. He has a 38 target share in two games without goddard Gotta love that two deep targets per game good red zone roll, but no touchdowns in that sample It's a fun game. I think decently fun Uh, eagles titans probably because I'm higher on the titans offense than a lot of people are But I do like divante smith my third love gotta be our guy DJ char coming in at 12,000 three. Oh, sorry 5,300 dollars for dj char The jags defense ranks 21st against the pass noy downs They allow an eight yard eight out, which is slightly above the average char has a 40.7 deep target share It is four full games. He's had multiple deep targets and all of them. He said three and three out of the four games Re ven g e find out what it means to me dj shark 53 a dollar Sign me up tight end. What'd you got there? Assuming that I cannot build around travis kelsey. Uh, i'm gonna go with pat fryer mooth 5900 uh good game environment all things considered. Um, he trails just kelsey and andrews and weighted targets per game Uh patty f said 9.3 Weighted targets per game kelsey 12.6 andrews 11.4 facing the 30th ranked adjusted pass defense Um, that has allowed two of nine end zone targets to be touchdowns at 22 percent Down from an nth. I'll average for the position at 39 percent. So i'm not saying he's gonna score but he's gonna score Um, I was gonna go with tyler conklin is my second play and just kind of punt completely but I'm pivoting to hayden hurst don't have a whole lot of uh analysis on hurst But you know, no disrespect to mike white, but i would rather play the tight end tied to joe burrow and the game Uh and kansas city 25th and adjusted fandal points per target a lot of tight ends Hurst's role is not great, but no tight ends roles are great aside from A handful and we already know that those guys are Yeah, my first love is also pat fryer mooth through the reasons you mentioned I think that he's In a good situation in a good match of 25 target share and the games he has played without chase claypool Raw targets, which is really uh enticing uh at 9.3 The 29 red zone $100 facing off against atlanta Checks a lot of boxes and I will say despite the fact that the stealers don't have a super high offense to expectation If we get jail and warren I would be okay having both him and fire muth in the same lineup I think that's okay. It's not something I want to do it like super super often But it's also not like An absolute nightmare. My second love is brown's tight end Take that for what it is. It could be david and joku if his knee winds up being healthy It could be harrison bryant bryant's first game without in joku was not good from a usage perspective Second game did score a touchdown. He had uh seven targets in that buffalo game when in joku was I believe limited In coming back. So I think there's leads to path to bryant having a decent game here salary is $4,700 that's low enough for me to be intrigued evin ingram Is $4,800. I know we've been off of him for a while now in the games He's played with marvin zay jones 14 target share in that game that that's sour that might be enough I don't feel great about it, but you know, whatever I mean, you're you're banking against the huge game from kelsey, but also You're almost not because kelsey at 8400 is like correct You're banking on getting all the value right at other positions, even if he does Yeah, so like if he were like 74, right, it'd be different. But yeah, I agree. Okay defense your favorite. What you got? I have the commanders at 4100 uh really good rush defense top eight and adjusted path defense Um daniel jones nine and a half point five or nine point five percent sack sack rate So that's all I got but I'll play him. I will use the chargers. They are the worst defense. I hate them I hate that team. Um, but they're 33 into dollars. They're slight favorites. I shouldn't use them But like, you know, it's a shootout could be a lot of back and forth Which is good for defenses in terms of like getting shots for sacks interceptions picks the same thing as interceptions So I don't know I don't want to use them I wouldn't be shocked if I wind up there If there's no lamar I'd use denver's defense 37 as well because they're a very good defense despite not being Elite in other departments. I don't mind the jets at 4 000 a christian derisaw can't play I did bet the jets money line earlier on this week I think they have a shot to win that game derisaw didn't practice wednesday. They said they'll be Cautious with him and bringing it back. I don't mind the giants defense don't mind the commanders defense So hopefully sticking at 4100 dollars or lower with between those options and rotating through them and hopefully not getting Too much on the chargers Brandon we've gone position by position any final thoughts for you On this week 13 main slate now that we have talked through everything A quick question Because you're the revenge game guy. Is this a revenge game for the dolphins? Because everyone on their team played for the 49ers at one point or coach for them Yeah, like the mcdaniel just like is it an entire team a level revenge game? Well, I think we have an entire team level revenge game for the texans. Um, that's true Dolphins, maybe I'm gonna give that a half revenge game. Yeah, I'll go for that Yeah, uh, just my thoughts are be open to the news. Um, if we get jaylon warren if we get You know, I'm a stop doggy I mean, is there a chance joe mixon misses? No She hefty tweeted about him monday. So if she hefty tweets we listen um, then Just stay tuned to the news and uh, there are a lot of ways to stack without being Silly. Yeah, think about ways you can be different without being dumb This lake gives you a lot of options. So think through them think through ways you can do that Make sure you're not getting overexposed to value plays like dj shark Like me, um, just think through stuff think through pivots and try to be different without being dumb That is all that we have here for today on the heat check fantasy podcast We are back with you once again monday to recap all the action and break down all the key takeaways for nfl Dfs once again, make sure you're subscribed both to the fandal youtube page We're live every monday and thursday at 10 a.m. Eastern and on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed to get these podcasts Right as they are posted branded if people have questions for you on twitter Where can they find you there? I'm on twitter at the door 13 gdu la 13 and i'm on twitter at gymsonus You can also follow the fandal podcast network at fandal podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in. Good luck to you with your nfl dfs linus week number 13 We'll talk to you once again monday to wrap it all up. This has been the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire