 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to another edition of theaccesotrader.com. A weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody had a great trading week. Phenomenal action. If you've been following kind of this broadcast for the last four or five days, you kind of know every single level, especially to the downside. It was violated on the cues, on major stocks that we all trade, and the videos, and Tesla's of the world. A lot of stuff going on this week. We'll get to that in a second. But first, for all you guys who are brand new to the channel, please subscribe, like, share, tell a friend, all that good stuff. Again, we try to put a level headed take on the financial markets with an unbiased opinion, and that's kind of the most important part going into this week. You're going to see a lot of people this week sensationalize what they think is about to happen. Not saying they're right, not saying they're wrong, but there's a lot of people out there that have an incredible mongering effect on life. The perspective of life is always half glass, half empty, which is fine. Not a great way to live, which is fine. You're going to have a lot of people this weekend because of all the information that we got over the past week. Start fear mongering, starting to put the panic into the air, into the universe. I'm going to say this much. I traded through the financial crisis from 2007 to 2009. Before we even get to that, before we even put that out there, I want everybody, especially the new traders, take a breath. You're going to see here a lot of information, a lot of speculation, a lot of people just out there for click baits and for likes and clicks. It's a shock factor. I want everybody to relax and take a deep breath. For all you guys who started trading prior to 2009, you kind of know where I'm about to go with this. Number one, let's kind of start off with the week and then we'll get to the current event. The week action packed full of news headlines all over the place. Again, you had the two-day meeting with Chairman Powell. A lot of hawker statements came out of there and basically didn't really give us any clarity of what was going to happen or what their current plans of action. Again, you had speculation coming out of his mouth that no decision has been made on the next Fed meeting. Could it be 50 basis points, 25, 75? He left everything up in the air. Obviously, the markets didn't like that. It's obvious. If you look at towards the end of the week, every single index was down at least 4.5%, obviously a big deal. Kind of a big deal here. You had your jobs day to come out. It was another hot read for the month. The market again did not like that news continued to sell. We closed pretty much at the bottom of the range here on the Q's. We'll get to the specific numbers going into next week. On the S&P 500, we broke everything. We broke the 200-day moving average and a lot of moves down. Imagine the S&P is dominated by banks. All the news is bearish and bearish and bearish. The markets was selling first, asked questions later, and then came the big story of the week. That was SBB Bank. SBB Bank, for what you guys don't know, is a regional bank out of California. I didn't dive into this deep because, again, there's a lot of layers. This is the first layer to be peeled, but SIVB is a regional bank. They have an incredible amount of business with startups. With startup companies, they obviously have the California-based company. They actually have a lot of venture capitalist money, all that stuff. They came out with a PR that they were accessing the debt market, which is usually, again, a normal thing. I'm reading this, of course, by the way. They raised nearly $2.3 billion to cover unforeseen asset impairments most related to long-term treasuries. The stock really got hit on Thursday. 60% moved down on Thursday because you're not just talking about using capital to expand business or pay down debt. Now you're talking about capital to raise in capital to keep solvency. Just try to stay solvent, and that was a big deal. As you can imagine, it's a shoot first, ask questions later society. Every bank from regional banks to the biggest banks in the world, the JPMorgan's of the world, got absolutely slammed. Absolutely slammed because, again, the first thing people think of, oh my God, this is 2007 all over again. We don't know that yet. We don't know that. A lot of people are turning around and go, you watch, and again, going back to the fear mongering. Let's just relax, take a deep breath. 2007, 2008, all the way to 2009 was apples to hand grenades. What's happening here yet so far? We don't know what's going to happen, but we'll get to that in a second. 2007, 2008, and 2009, everybody was over leveraged. They were giving out no money down homes. People who were making $40,000 a year had three properties with no money down. The problem is with all these toxic loans that were handed out, there was big maturity payments, big balloon maturity payments coming to do. When you have a $40,000 income, when you have $40,000, $50,000 income, $60,000 income, and you have three rental properties, no money down, no money down, and your balloon payment goes from, let's say, $1,200 a month that your tenant is paying to all of a sudden $3,200 a month, and you have three, four separate properties, there's no way you can make payments. No way you can make payments, and you start to default, and everybody started to default. Anybody who had those no money down loans, they started to default. What the problem was, all these banks that had all these loans, they were taking the hits for the remainder. They were taking the hits, and that started a really aggressive domino effect, and that led to insurance company mortgage brokers, anything that had to do with all these loans, and a lot of them were tied up very creatively. When all these loans got tied up and people started defaulting on these loans, it was an Armageddon type of scenario that almost collapsed the financial system, as we know. Again, I'm not an expert on stuff. Even to this day, could I really give you a fine-line documentary series of what happened? No. That wasn't my job. I'm not a smart guy. We kind of just rolled the flow, but I know the basics of it. This is completely different. The majority of the world is deleveraged, and that's a fact. It's an absolute fact. Nobody is giving out, well, I can't say nobody, and who knows what's going on these days, but the standard proxy for getting a home loan. My recent home that I purchased in 2016, it was at least 20, 25% down. I wanted to make sure at some point you had at least two years' worth of payments in your account. It was basically yellow pages worth of documents versus... Yeah, I make a lot of money, blah, blah, blah. Wink, wink, 2007, that everybody's getting all these properties. I think the world has changed tremendously. I think I would venture to say probably 80% of all the leverage that was on, the toxic leverage that was on the books from 2007, 2008, 2009, they're off. They're off whether it was forced off being marked down by the banks, or forced into liquidation and bankruptcy by the individual borrower, but the point is we're in a different world. Now we're in a different stage. Now the fear is, well, SVB had this phenomenal collapse down 60%. Down 60% on Thursday's session, FDIC came in very, very quickly. They seized control of the bank. They closed their doors within 24 hours. I believe they're starting as money. I could be wrong. Again, this is such a fluid situation. The FDIC is going to start to make everybody hold under $250,000 in protection. Obviously, if you have more than $250,000 protection in this bank, you have a whole different other narrative that you have to work around. But the point is this is the second biggest collapse by a bank. Not a broker by a bank since 2008. The first one was Washington Mutual. This is the second biggest collapse since the financial crisis. Now the question is what happens over this weekend. I'm sure the Treasury is going to have a lot of options on their hands. I'm sure there's a lot of banks lining up because they did still have $200 billion in assets from what I understand, or at least cash, or one of the two. Again, it's a very fluid situation. From what I understand, over the weekend, they have several options. Either completely let them go to zero, which is probably not going to be the case. Find a buyer, which probably will be the case just because Merrill got saved by Bank of America, yet of a whole bunch of dominoes that were being saved by larger institutions. I think some sort of concrete, or at least a concrete plan that's going to start to play out, you'll see over the weekend into Monday into Tuesday what actually happens to the institution, which is absolutely insane how quickly things have turned. Now the question is what happens next. A lot of people still have long memories from 2007 and 2008, and people remember what happened. I traded to 2007. It was a really tough year because we really didn't know how the market was going to react. By 2008, we finally had a little bit of indication how to navigate what was going on. Again, you saw a lot of bankruptcy. You saw a lot of foreclosures. You saw a lot of everything. It was probably an incredibly, incredibly aggressive hard market to trade. At one point, everything became ... you couldn't shorten anything. They made shorting illegal. The only way you could have done it was via puts. I remember $20 stocks like a stock called I think it was Inpex Mortgage. It was like a $25 stock. The only thing you could have done is bought like $5 puts on this thing. That's how aggressive it was. That lesson what taught us and we always say time is the ultimate teacher. I was a better trader a year 10 than I was a year 5. I was a better trader a year 20 than I was a year 10. I'm a much better trader now going on my 24th year than it was 24 years ago. Experience, I already went through. We already knew what was going to happen. Now we already know and we're prepared what's going to happen next. You can hear a lot of people again talking about everything's going to zero or blah, blah, blah. The first thing you want to do is get rid of all that's toxicity. It's number one. You don't want to rely on somebody who is younger than the events of 2008. Tiktokers again, go away. You're going to see a lot of people scramble for answers. You're going to see a lot of panic over the weekend. You're going to see a lot of people just completely in layman's turn lose their shit. This is a time to relax. This is a time that if you have an ear of a professional experienced trader, I would strongly suggest to really try to get on their good graces and try to soak up as much information as possible because yes, in the next two weeks you're probably going to have a lot of aggressive trading sessions. Market going up 500, market going down 500 because volatility in a new cycle brings in expansion of volatility, expansion of aggression and a lot of people unfortunately are not going to survive this because if they can't think about it, the whole adage is during a bull market, 90% of the people don't make money in a bull market. What do you think is going to happen here? This is not even a conversation that we had in 2022 when the bear market, and that's exactly what we were. The bear market of 2022 when we saw 33% move down in the Nasdaq 100 was very, very orderly. When you have a spin cycle, when you have an aggressive news event that could potentially be, and again, we don't know. This is the first layer. There's a first layer. You can have a lot of companies come out. I think a lot of companies already started coming out over the weekend and start to get in front of this thing and start talking about their exposure to SIVB. You had Roku come out and they said they have about 26% of their capital tied up in SIVB. They also announced that business was not going to be interrupted, which is a good thing. You had the same thing basically with Roblox. They said they had about $150 million tied up there as well. Again, same thing. They came out and said business will not be interrupted. You see all the names, Lending Club, Payoneer. I'm not really familiar with Payoneer. Ginkgo Bio, good amount of money in these places. I feel you're probably going to get a lot more 8Ks being released over the next week of companies reassuring their investors and just reassuring the market as a whole that everything was going to be okay. We had some exposure. There's going to be some write downs. There might be some short-term down draft, but everything is okay. Now again, somebody's going to turn around and say, well, yeah, Bear Stearns and Lehman said the same thing. They absolutely did. 100%. They absolutely did. And guess what? They both went to zero. So that's my point. We don't know yet. At some point, you have to trust something fair value, phase value. So when you're going into this week and you're already saying to yourself, let's say everything's going to zero, sell everything. Maybe it will, but maybe it won't. And that's the whole point. Take a deep breath. Take it from somebody who was trading for a long time, way too f-ing long for one lifetime. We've been through 2007. We went through 2008. We went through 2009. We went through the pandemic, right? Do you guys remember this is more, the fact that this is a regional bank, this is more in a weird way, at least at the beginning of this conversation. This is at least more to the savings and loan crisis in the 1980s than it is to 2007, 2008. Again, do your homework before you start screaming, this is the financial crisis. The market's going to crash. The world's going to end. Do your homework. Again, I'm not an expert in any of this stuff, but I've lived through a lot of this stuff, right? I've traded through a lot of this stuff. And the most important part is the people who are calm and rational and are experienced, okay, are going to survive. The people that are all over the place spreading false narratives that the sky is falling, and maybe it does, maybe it doesn't, but at least let the events play out. Again, this is the first inning, the first batter of the first inning. Maybe it's something, maybe it's nothing. But again, as we say on every single video, don't we have to be prepared, right? Don't we have to be prepared? They could come out over the weekend and have some sort of rational plan in hand that this is an isolated incident. I personally think it's not, okay, if I'm a betting man, it's not, there's no such thing as an isolated incident, but there's a degree of severity in everything, right? Maybe if you're a kid on a bike, you're riding a bike for the first time, you're learning how to ride and you fall, you might skin your knee, okay? Years later, God forbid you're in a serious car accident. You don't know. You don't know what life is going to bring. So for us to sit there and speculate what this is going to turn into, excuse me, what this is going to turn into, two, three, four, five months from now is ridiculous. All you're doing is putting tremendous amount of stress on yourself subconsciously, okay? And you're going to be constantly worrying and that constantly worry is going to lead to health issues, right? Especially as you get older, you know, you start putting all this stress, all this pressure, and you start dealing with things that are not even in front of you yet and it causes a lot of health issues. So the last thing you want to do is put all that pressure, okay? From the trading side, okay? You know, we know what's what, okay? We know what's what. You know, nobody's going to pull the wall over my eyes, okay? We deal with the levels. And unfortunately in 2007, 2008, and again, somebody's going to turn around and go, you could throw your charts out the way if things start defaulting. Absolutely. We're not there yet. That's the whole point. We're not there yet, okay? When we start defaulting, then yes, the strategy becomes different. You're going to start getting, for experienced traders, you're going to start putting on a lot more deep out of the money, put positions with a little bit of time, trading intraday for subsidized cash flow. We have a whole game plan at stake here, okay? This is not a, you know, this is not a fly by night. Let's see what happens tomorrow's scenario. I'm prepared. I know I'm completely prepared to whatever the market's going to throw at me on Monday. Let's start with Monday, okay? We don't know what's going to happen. Six months from now, a month from now, three days from now. Let's take a look at Monday, and that's the most important part, right? So we have all this news. We have all these data points coming in from the Fed. I heard an argument this morning that there might be, and again, it totally makes sense. If this is a problem, think about this, if SIVB had their issues with long-term treasuries, there is a scenario I can see, and I agree. There was a guest on CNBC. I forgot who the gentleman was, and he said there's an idea out there. There's a potential out of nowhere actually interest rate cut, okay? To kind of put the whole inflation thing to the side and start looking at the bigger picture for financial institutions just strictly for solvency issues. So that's always on the table as well. So you're going to see a lot of moving parts, guys, right? You're going to see a lot of moving parts. This is where you really have to understand and appreciate technical analysis. Again, I get it. There's going to be certain days that charts are not going to matter, because news is going to trump all those days we understand. They're going to be violent. They're going to be aggressive, and it's not going to be for the faint of heart or for the brand-new trader. But as an experienced trader, somebody's been in that foxhole for nearly 24 years, we're prepared, right? One day at a time, one trade at a time, no panic, no stress, no rush. And for all you guys who've been in the webinar with me for nearly almost 14 years, and especially over this past week, you know what it is, right? This past week was one of the best action weeks I can remember. Every level of every stock got taken down. Whether, you know, again, if you look at Wednesday's video, we talked about 298.5 to the upside, 294.87. Remember, held twice to the downside? Both of those channels broke, right? The 98.5 went to 301. Then later in the day, it was so violent that they took down that 294.87 level and went all the way down to 291.80s. 291.80s closed right on the 50-day moving average, right? These are things you can't control. You can control your levels. So going into this week, guys, here's the key levels, right? Assuming no incredible outrageous news comes out, and obviously everything else that we talked about now completely gets thrown off the table. But here's what we're looking at, okay? If the queues need to hold 287, excuse me. If the queues don't hold 287, that means it confirms the 50-day moving average. Again, if you watch the videos throughout our time together, you kind of know how important the 50-day moving average. Last year, 2022, we were 85% below the 50-day moving average, which triggers a bear market. Obviously, these news headlines are not going to help. So 287, keep an eye on the queues. If they start losing 287, we go down to 284. We lose 284, and there's more of a new spin cycle, things that are going to get very, very aggressive. If you look at the spies, again, we talked about the spies on Wednesday's video as well. We talked about the spies on Wednesday's video. It lost this 392 level, traded all the way down to 384. Spies start losing this whole channel here, this 384, 383 level. We're going to go all the way down to 376. Again, be prepared, right? Be prepared. And if you're a brand new trader, again, the last thing you want to do is go on social media and project your frustrations on a trader who's been doing this for a long time. I've been short-lived for two and a half weeks, and finally broke down at a 15% move. This is the slowest damn breakdown of all time, but obviously, as you can imagine, everything started to expand. And every time I talked about lift, somebody says, Haha, you're crazy bullish. What's bullish about this? Let's just really look at this. What's really bullish about this? So I get it. New traders, you're stuck in this trade. Long-term investors, you're stuck in this trade. You're stuck in everything. You're stuck in Tesla. You're stuck in the video. Everything is terrible. The walls are closing in. Guys, remember, I didn't force you to get a random stock at a random time. You're underwater. Don't project your frustrations on me. Don't project your frustrations on any experienced trader that you have access to because eventually they'll stop talking. They don't care. They don't care that you're sitting in a position that is not unfortunately to your liking. They're doing their own thing. Everybody is a different time horizon. I'm a trader. I trade channels, intraday channels. If I get a runner, I'll keep it overnight. It doesn't make a difference to me where something was three months ago, where something's going to be three months from now. It doesn't make a difference. It's all about the interval. The idea that if you're a brand new trader, you're projecting your frustrations because you're upset of what you did to yourself, eventually experienced traders, and there's not a lot of them, experienced traders are going to eventually just stop talking to you. They're going to stop posting, and then you're going to be sitting there by yourself, screaming at yourself. You need people with experience of this type of your investment career to put you on the right track, to show you how to start hedging your overall portfolio, to not to sit there like a deer in headlights that potentially could really destroy your trading career or a spying trade career. So use this time to learn. Use this time as an area that is going to your mental data bank that hopefully five, ten years from now, if you're still trading, if you're absolutely still trading, that this could be an incredible learning tool for you. So going into this week, guys, we're fully prepared for everything. We know our important levels. You can see Tesla sitting on the 50-day moving average. This thing loses the 50-day. We talked about the 86 breakdown, the 80 breakdown. This thing is all the way down to 166. Any close below 66 on Tesla starts an incredible cycle, just like with everything else. So we're prepared. We're calm. We're not listening to the fear mongers or the people who are bait-clicking you. They want to drive emotions. We're calm. We're experienced. And most important is we're professional. And guys, have a great day. Stay safe. Have a course of action. And with God's help, I'll see you all on Monday. Take care.