 It got down there for October, and now we're going to get down there for tomorrow. And it's a very, very big deal, in my opinion, if you believe in the long-term aspects. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process and own your future. Hey guys, give me your body. Welcome to another edition of the access a trader dot com nightly wrap up show. Hope everybody is doing well. Again, this short work week, my catch on tomorrow is already the middle of the week, which is absolutely great. The year has not started off great for the bulls. The first two weeks of the year, you've seen selling again, usually, usually the first quarter of the January, right? Remember about the January effect? People always talk about how much speculation money is going to come hit the market. Remember, nothing happens, needs to happen. That's the most important part that we have to echo every single day in our daily thinking, because again, the market is the greatest reality show that's not on television. It doesn't need to go higher when it wants to. It doesn't need to go higher when it wants to. It doesn't need to go lower when it wants to. It's all about individual inspections that are hitting the landscape at any given year. Remember, there's certain years that are super bullish. The bulls can't do anything wrong by the dip. You could walk on water. Everything is great in your life. And there's certain years that start off that, hey, just nothing makes sense. The market can't get out of its own way, no matter what happens. Earnings are good. Earnings are bad. Stock prices are still going lower. And that's exactly what we are seeing at the start of the year. And if you guys remember the weekend update that I published yesterday, majority of the stocks were right in the middle of the ranges. We talked about how there was no definitive area of the market that you wanted to be strong. I mean, sure, there's some names that looked pretty good in the semiconductor space. And we talked about them yesterday, the amats of the world, the microns of the world. But if everything gets pulled, just keep this in mind. If everything gets pulled and everything's in the middle of the ranges, just kind of what we've been seeing now for the first part of the week, nothing gets spared. I don't care what stock you're looking at, what stock you think is strong, no matter how strong that stock is, it's not going to survive a tremendous tidal wave. And that's exactly what we got hit today with. And not only today, again, you could start compounding the whole start of the year. But the index that's definitely leading us lower is the Russell, right? Is the IWM. And this was supposed to be the one that is going to outperform the January effect, right? The January effect. This is where every pumper and small cap, low float, everything is going higher by this. But look, if there's money coming out of speculation capital, well, what do you think is going to happen with the average stock? What do you think is going to? Who's going to support bids if the market that is supposed to be the hottest market at this given time of the year can survive? And when you look at a 3% decline in the Russell, right? In the IWM, it's not a good thing. And it took out the December 20 lows in the process. And now, when you look at, you know, if you look at the monthly chart, right? You got yet this whole area of this 202 area that's potentially measured potential for the next move lower. If you look at the cues, right? Same thing, right? You got the same thing. This is a monthly chart. And on the monthly chart, everything looks good. Again, if I showed you this chart here, and this is a daily chart of the stock, you could easily make an argument. Hey, what's the big deal? The stock has just had a really, really big monster run. And now it's coming into rising support. And if we hold this rising support, it's going to turn around. And this is why tomorrow is such a big day, because you're right. This is the monthly chart of the cues. And every single time, right, it got down to the bottom of this rising wedge on January, February, March, right? March of 2021, it got down there for October. And now we're going to get down there for tomorrow. And it's a very, very big deal. In my opinion, if you believe in the long-term aspects of the bull market, and I'm not saying long-term as in five, 10 years, again, I do believe that we will be higher in five, 10 years than you are today. But it's all about tomorrow, right? Especially if you are an active, intraday trader, it's all about how you're seeing the market on a short-term basis. Again, if you're a long-term investor, it's probably not going to affect you. But maybe it will if you're short-term and long-term investors are kind of playing at almost the same time from you. You have to be very, very careful there. But this area here is going to be very important. And if you look at the daily chart of the market, it kind of correlates exactly the same way. And if you look at the lows from January the 10th, only a week ago, and the lows today, the NASDAQ 100 held exactly the same level twice. Now, back-to-back days. So that's the line in the sand. This whole 369 level is going to be a very, very, you know, make-it-or-break-it battleground area tomorrow for the markets. So the last thing you want to see tomorrow if you are a permanent bull is if we do have a little bit of a gap up, a little bit of a relief rally at the open, the last thing you want to see is today's prices or the January the 10th prices confirm, and then you start making moves lower. Again, remember, we had a 2.5% decline today on the NASDAQ 103% decline on the Russell. That's speculation money. These are the stocks that people want to own. These are stocks that fund managers want to be long for three to five years. And if there is a buyer strike in technology and there's a buyer strike in quote-unquote speculation money, the low flows, you know, this after the third, where's the action, right? Where's the confidence from the investor's side of the market that we want to go higher? And the most important part of what we saw from today's session we'll get to individual pivots in a second. The most important part we saw is what we needed to see. A lot of these stocks that we're sitting in the middle of the ranges are starting to get to the bottom of the ranges. And that's the point, right? Look at Apple starting to get to the bottom of the range. Not there yet, but starting to. Look at NVIDIA, right? Very, very close of breaking down. Look at the home builders. And this is a group that I usually don't regularly look at, but they really stood out today like sore thumbs when I started doing my chart work. Like look at a stock, for example, like a Lenard, right? Like, look where the Lenard is. It's coming on this bottom range here. This thing loses this whole bottom range here. Look how much room you have. Nothing, you have literally no support until you go all the way down to October 2021 lows. Very, very good. Look at DHI, right? Look at DHI, exactly the same thing. So we're starting to get to other levels, other groups that have nothing to do with technology, right? That maybe you've been a safe haven for a very long time because again, if you're like me and you live in a lot of parts of the United States, real estate market has been hot. We had very, very, we still have very, very low rates despite what the Fed is saying. We're going to raise rates 28 times in the next 30 minutes. So until we see that, we don't believe it. But again, if the housing stocks, right? The housing market participants can't catch a bid, that's going to be a problem, right? That's obviously going to be a problem and rising rates is obviously not a good thing for brand new home buyers or just buyers in general. And this is why you're seeing, we're starting to see weakness in home builders as well. So it's one group definitely to look at. But I think the names that are starting to go clear, I really like NVIDIA, okay? I really, really like this NVIDIA. Again, it's one of the cleanest channels you can see here. Very, very clean channel. We started seeing last week 240 puts this week's 250 weeklies started trading. I'm telling you, if NVIDIA gets below this channel and starts building down, you got at least 11 to 15 points until the next support looks really, really good. We talked about Rivian for the last couple of weeks. Rivian broke down every macro channel today. It took out that 77 level that held three times. It held two weeks ago lows of 75. This is the lowest close in this whole formation. This thing has room all the way to 63 if the market starts building lower. Look at a name like Spotify, right? Spotify as well. This is the lowest close in this whole formation. Now, granted, it's not the thickest stock in the world to trade. It only traded like a million and a half shares today. But the whole point is you're going to start seeing a lot of stocks go from their middle of the channels all the way back to the bottom of the channels. And remember, it's pretty basic technical analysis. When stocks take out the top of the range, they go higher. If stocks take out the bottom of the range, well, they go lower. So going into tomorrow, again, you're not going to see tons of charts at the bottom of the range, but you're going to see plenty. We talked about Spotify. We talked about NVIDIA. We talked about the home builders. Look at a name like Airbnb. Again, it's all real estate developed. It's all real estate related. Look at this whole bottom of the channel here. It's setting up as well. So that looks good as well. But again, the key is going to be for the Qs back to back days. It stopped around that 369 level. That's the number in the line of the sand. Again, guys, technical analysis, it's not opinionated. It's not subjective. It's either going to confirm a channel. This time it's a daily channel. It's either going to confirm a daily channel or they're going to hold it. There is nothing in between. You can't be a little bit pregnant. We're either going to see a pretty good aggressive pull tomorrow off this 369 level, or if we test this 369 level, again, the markets hold. We're probably going to go red to green for a pretty good dead cat rally. That's it is. That's kind of our reality. So you have to kind of be set for both sides of the market tomorrow. But again, gunked on my head, I do think this 369 folds. And if it does fold, we're going to start seeing a lot more aggressive opportunities tomorrow to the short side. So let's talk about taste channels. As you can imagine, we weren't going to see tons and tons of value to the downside because, again, there was a lot of downside channels that were still stuck in the middle. But we got enough. And that's the most important. You don't need 30 trades. You don't need 60 trades. You just need one. You need two. You need the ones that are going to give you value when they break that value. That's where you're going to see your initial cash flow setting up into a macro move. So let's talk about this. Rivian, this is a really, really good move. I still think it goes lower. 77 and 75 macro areas if it builds below can see 65. I still think we could see 65 to 62. If today's price channel confirms tomorrow, nice move down all the way down to the 73 area today. BA. BA was actually pretty good until the market completely reversed. Dow got hit as well. As you can see, 227 needs to build. Nice initial pop on Boeing. 227 got to the 230 level. Nice move before it obviously came in with everything else. AMAC, keep an eye on this thing, read the green. Obviously, never got to read the green. Navidia's second entry, 262, if it builds, can see that 256. That's the spot, guys. That is going to be the magic number. Here was Navidia. Took out the 262. Closed at the lows, not at the lows. Closed about a dollar away from the lows. Got down all the way down to 57s. Again, this whole channel is the line of the sand for tomorrow. This thing breaks, lights out from Navidia. And again, we want to see more continuation from the options market. Microsoft, stubborn little bastard, but they finally got it below the channel. 303.75, it builds below, can flush. Microsoft, again, there's a lot of buyers. They were defending that 404 level. This is the lowest close in this whole formation here on this rise in support here. This thing starts confirming that 301 level. I think we go 299s tomorrow on Microsoft. Boeing, again, take on the way up. Take on the way up. Rivian, right? Rivian, 77.75 macro. Any close on the 75 is bearish. Obviously, that's the case. The one stock is actually two stocks that are holding up fairly well. One is this DWAC. For all you guys who follow the stock, this is kind of like the alternative to Twitter, right? It's like Trump got banned from Twitter and this is now like the anti-Trump. I know nothing about this thing. I literally know nothing about this thing, but it's been going nuts. And there was a buyer who came in today, right? It was kind of wild. But a buyer came in today for the Jennifer, for the March 175 calls. Quarter of a million dollar bet. Not for the 75s, the hundreds. The dude came in for 175 calls. Read into that or read as whatever you'd like. But the facts of facts, it's on the tape. So this thing looks like it's speeding up. And if this thing starts taking out yet today's channels tomorrow, who the hell knows? Oddly, this kind of feels like what GameStop did in its little heyday after they would just started running up these ridiculous options bed. And the next thing you know, it kind of ignited. Who knows, right? Who knows? Anything is possible in this world. But the most important part here on Planet Earth is watching these channels just kind of deplete every single day. And as they start getting lower and lower every single day, you're going to have more and more aggressive channels setting up, especially in technology. But again, the biggest worry should be what the Russell is doing. What the Russell actually is not doing is having its traditional hot rally, the January effect. So far January has been a complete dud for the speculation money and the overall bulls. We'll see. Again, value tomorrow obviously is to the downside, but that $369 area on the Qs is going to be a very, very important area for both bull and bear. Guys, have a great night. God bless. And I will see you all tomorrow.