 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Morning Markets Kickoff. With your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good morning everybody, I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN just after 9 a.m. eastern time Friday morning. Hope everyone's had a good morning to kick things off and markets right now pretty calm territory. We kick things off with an S&P that's trading right at 4,300. 4,301 we'll call it on the charts right now. Up 2 points on the session. That's a 5 minute chart, you see the action. Even last night, 3 in the morning. Down about 42, 86, all things considered. We'll jump over to the VIX, right? Very little volatility in this market. Not sure today's going to be any different. NASDAQ 100, up by 42 right now. You have the Dow, negative by 62 points in the Russell. Off by 2 points right now. Crude, trading near $71. There was some volatility for you yesterday, man. Crude drives down to 69. We finished the session at about 71.50. That's where we were just a few minutes ago. 71.50, right now we're off that price a bit at 71.02. Gold contracts had some volatility recently, especially with the dollar index moving. We got gold this morning. You see the volatility again. Up to 1988, just like that. We give it up again at 1977 right now. We jumped in O10 bonds. You got a little bit of lower price, higher yields. Down to 112.30 early yesterday. And again, right near the open, right now we're at 113.16. That's basically negative by seven ticks on the session right now on the 10-year. And you got to jump over to the VIX, volatility index. 13.66, made it to 13.53 yesterday. Do we see a 12-handle on the VIX today? It's possible, man. It seems like it's on a one-way trip. You take a look at this thing, even put it on an hourly. Talk about an acceleration, man. Just over two weeks ago, 2081. And remember, folks, that was the day that NVIDIA really started blowing out of the water. Okay, in terms of when this market really started taking off, right? You back things up. It was Wednesday, May 24th. Let's go back to the VIX. Yeah, there it is, Wednesday, May 24th. So we spiked into those NVIDIA earnings. NVIDIA came out, forecasted they're going for 11 billion in the upcoming quarter versus 7 billion. And that has been a catalyst with some other things thrown in there in terms of the Fed indicating that they're probably going to be pausing slash skipping. I really think that's a high probability that's going to happen, folks, on Wednesday coming up. We get CPI data on Tuesday coming up as well. So some interesting data points, at least one interesting data point right before the Fed. That's right as they start their meeting. And they'd probably get an indication of that, at least the chairman the night before in terms of what they'll be dealing with for a CPI number like that. But nonetheless, VIX trading at 1365, and we've got to jump over to the dollar index. That's the probability yesterday, dollar index right now, up 10 basis, up 10 ticks at 103.44. You can see right near the little boundary line of where we've been recently. You were up to almost 104.70, back things up about a week ago. You put this back on a daily and you can see that, yeah, we've bounced a bit, but the lower range in the dollar, you're talking about 101.20, if you make it back there, it could be for a week dollar right now in terms of the optimism of a Fed cutting. And we'll go from there. It speaks for itself. So with that, let's go to the Fed. We'll kick things off with the Fed story. Why not? Because it's going to be in focus next week, man. The Fed is seen ending its 15 month hiking campaign in Economist Survey. Folks, I would just go to the vice chairman, nominees, Jefferson, his comments, and I'll pull them up maybe throughout the show. Again, you couldn't have been more clear. He left himself no room. He's going to be the vice chairman. You wouldn't come out and be that strong about pausing, skipping, letting the data play out, and then potentially coming back with another hike if they needed to, if things were up in the air. It's very easy to say that things are up in the air. If you really thought things were up in the air, you would leave yourself the room to be up in the air. Hear those words, man. When they're prepared remarks and they're coming from the vice chair nominee, boy, they matter. I see it as a surety, man, that it's happening. I think the market already sees it as a surety as well. The FOMC is to upgrade the view of growth this year with less joblessness is how Bloomberg puts it here, shrinking the balance sheet even after the eventual rate cuts. Economist see a pause in June and cuts starting in 2024. That's the much more interesting conversation, in my opinion. Yeah, I don't know for it. The crazy part about this is, I mean, that's where you're looking. They pause. They stay where we are. And then maybe you get into the beginning of next year and we start cutting potentially. But boy, that seems like a rosy situation, man. It's only 46 people telling you what they think. And guess what? Nobody really knows right now what's going on. It's all opinions. I was listening to Bloomberg early in the morning just before I came on the air and they had Muhammad al-Aryan and he was saying, nobody really knows what happens in the next six, 12 months, man. Everybody's got an opinion, but this isn't uncharted territory. We are dealing with generational inflation. I'm adding some thoughts, but the next six, 12 months, man, nobody knows what's going to happen. Okay? Everybody's got an opinion. But we've seen how opinions have been radically wrong. And I think it's interesting how many people are lined up on where we're going to be in terms of rates, cuts, and the peak rate. And meanwhile, the hard part hasn't even come, folks. The hard part is probably when you get to, like, 3.5% inflation. When you get to 3.2% inflation. Now, the Fed's going to ease up if they think they're on the way. But boy, are we going to be stuck at 3.2% or are we going to be stuck at 3.4% or are we going to be stuck at 3.6% inflation? Folks, over three years, the 3.6% inflation rate is 10% over three years. Three years is nothing. Right? So you see that that's supposed to be the hard part. We're not at the hard part. We're at the part between 3.2% inflation where things should be with a 15-month hiking cycle pairing a bit. So I find it hard to believe that we've been hiking for 15 months. I mean, think how well the housing market has held up, right? Think about that. If you had said the Fed is going to hike for 15 straight months, 10 straight meetings, mortgage rates are going to be at 7%, what a housing price is going to do? You wouldn't say they're where they are. You say, where are home builder stocks going to be? You wouldn't say they're where they're going to be. The resilience in this economy has carried over to inflation. So very difficult for me to imagine that there's all this lag that's going to catch up and magically squash inflation from almost an uptick now between 4 and 5 to 2. Remember, they got to get to 2. I mean, it kind of gets lost in the shuffle that we've somehow began talking about a pause and a skip when we're between 4 and 5. But nonetheless, that's where we are. We know how it goes, man. And we get to find out on Wednesday, no matter what happens, he's going to have some explaining to do. As I think I was talking to our man, Teddy Kekstapp, maybe I was saying that on Wednesday. And boy, no matter what he does, right? If you pause, boy, I'd better hear why you're pausing. And are you coming back with hikes? He's definitely going to give himself room to come back with hikes. You have to when inflation's pushing almost 5% core PCE. But if he doesn't hike, what's he going to say? And I imagine he is not going to hike. And he's going to say pretty much what Jefferson said, which is they are going to be in lockstep. There's no harm in pausing for a meeting and seeing where we are six weeks, a meeting or two down the line. There should be a risk assessed into the market, though, that a pause or a skip, let's put it this way, a skip is much more risky, is much less risky. I'll sum it up again. If they just skip one meeting, that's not as risky because they can keep hiking. But if they're thinking about pausing, the substantial risk that inflation picks up again. So we'll see what they say in that statement on Wednesday. Stay tuned, folks. We'll come right back. We have exciting news, Tigers. This June, Tim Ord of the Ord Oracle will be hosting two webinars providing insight into his renowned market timing methodologies. 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You're going to open up $15 and that is going to be because they're signing people up man because they clamped down on the passwords as we all expected. We talked about it. Boy if you got that warning man we should about Netflix on that now. You back this thing up okay. That was the Acceleration Friday. Yeah we came back Tuesday and this thing opened at $400 traded to $390 you're at $426 right now after trading from $356 when this started happening or the news at least was that it was coming out. Let me back it up even a little bit further. Yeah that was the Friday I'm talking about there where you accelerated from $360 let alone the $330 Acceleration okay. That was news driven in some accord I'm sure but that Friday news on May 26 folks was the news that they were clamping down on passwords. They did it over the long weekend. We came back on Tuesday and this thing was up at $400 yeah from trading at $360 on Friday and just like that there you're going to open at $426 and the news is yeah they're signing people up man they amassed more new subscriptions in the US between May 25 and 28 and more than 100 countries than any other four day period since they began compiling such data in 2019 and that's a streaming analytics company antenna. Now I would make the case that to use the word of the moment there's considerable lag in how it's going to take these users man I'm actually surprised that it happened on that very day right that was Memorial weekend is that right May 28th Memorial Day weekend I think it was. Yeah May 29th was Memorial Day weekend so they're saying they signed people more people up leading up until yeah the 29th so they're saying from Thursday to Sunday 25th to 28th well I'll tell you folks I think it was on that Sunday that I was over at my dad's house watching some Netflix maybe and it pulled up or maybe I pulled it up the next day or I pulled it up sometime over that time I pulled it up that weekend and saw it maybe it was that Saturday night but most of the time which is remarkable is the person who's paying for it okay to really digest this because there is some lag here for sure because the person who's paying for the plan they don't have to do anything all you have to do is you have to tell them this is my home streaming network identify this location is my home streaming network that way you don't have to constantly hit me up probably to confirm my identity everybody else that's not paying has that happened so I guess you make the case that yeah the people that were freeloading there the moment that they weren't allowed in they went they signed up by themselves now where there's considerable lag though is that if you're letting somebody else use your subscription you can add those people and that's where there's probably going to be considerable lag versus the people that say okay I've been freeloading off of my relatives or friends for long enough I guess it's time to whip out the credit card and pay for it myself but yeah interestingly that goes that day look at that look at the pandemic spike right of course daily US signups seven-day rolling average pretty remarkable you get it done over the pandemic spikes when that was happening well it's pretty remarkable how many they're at it constantly right 30, 40, 50, 60,000 people on a daily average just like that I'm sure they have some churn in there which is why those numbers are high as well though yeah nonetheless so they're going to pop $15 at the open man to 426 and I imagine that's not done because there's going to be a considerable period outside of that four-day period so we're going to open at 426 you see the round from 701 down to 162 and boy it don't stop right with the S&Ps up by six points let's jump over to another poster boy for the decline of quite the decline you got meta now meta is all the way back to the 618 of its demise you go from 384 to 88 bucks interesting right cause you take a look at Netflix Netflix not even with this pop are they're going to be 50% of the run they had had so met a really claw in the back we jump over to Tesla Tesla breaking out potentially of its channel and you're going to get a bid today as well they're trading higher on some news I got a story pulled up for them as they got a pact with GM I believe it is let's see may find no potentially come on alright I'll have to find that article as well nope I just had it clicked away here it is Tesla there's their news of the day climbs on a GM pact and yeah Netflix as well you talk about it Tesla though they announced GM announced it's joining the company's charging network so GM is going to be making a deal with Tesla when you figure it out that they're going to be joining their charging network now one of the big things that Tesla jumping around in all these companies consistently talks about is that you know the infrastructure they build out the battery power that they have etc my dad sent me an article a couple weeks back I remember I was reading just talking about the raw number of tax credits that Tesla gets dwarfs anything else compared to these companies because of basically the build out that they've had for whether it's the battery production that they do in America versus they have China as well for the credits though you're talking about what they've done in America to build out the infrastructure that they have as EV takes off and you're seeing a play out with GM joining their network you jump over to GM shares they're higher on that pact as well trading up to 3733 we jump over to the VIX this morning again 1364 we got to keep track of how the dollar index is doing chopping around 103 42 jump over to the 10 year 10 year 113 15 let's see how NVIDIA is trading this morning NVIDIA up about 5 bucks you got growth stocks trading higher with NASDAQ up about 56 we jump over to some of the other fang stocks Google shares it was quite a sell off on Wednesday man across the board Google shares going to be up marginally on the open you have Amazon shares going to be down marginally on the open I don't imagine any huge moves today interesting with some news on a few equities you're going to have Netflix higher you're going to have Tesla higher those are the two magnificent seven man seems like it's always happening we haven't jumped to Microsoft yet Microsoft traded basically flat down about 30 pennies right now for Microsoft shares all right what else we got going on let's talk a little bit of crypto you got Bitcoin this morning sitting at about 27000 this one should not surprise your folks Binance said its banking partners would pause and I don't imagine that's going to be a skip that's going to be a pause man it's going to be an indefinite pause their relationship with the exchange as soon as next week yeah immediate scrutiny as you'd expect man when the SEC is filing their charges against Binance my dad was talking about it yesterday right they're going to have some trouble serving him it's pretty amazing in terms of tech billionaires these days especially in the crypto realm that you don't need to have a headquarters you don't need to have headquarters at all one of the things that Binance actually does is they don't have a headquarters and he is somewhere in the world and everything they do is electronic and what's the point of being anywhere man why not be nowhere never be found use your money so it would be interesting to see how that plays out because they're not going to be able to serve him I imagine and I'm sure the court will get around that in some capacity but yeah you're going to see relationships seven man Binance in particular Coinbase is going to be a different deal okay still wouldn't touch it amazing that this thing is back to I mean imagine folks this thing is back to where it was on Monday before the world knew that the SEC was coming after Coinbase now you could make the educated guess that they were coming after him for sure okay but nonetheless a pretty remarkable recovery of 55 bucks that's where you were trading at two weeks ago $56 and change meanwhile they got an SEC lawsuit on their hands right now we're coming back for the open folks don't go away we'll be back in three minutes building wealth trading in the stock market seems impossible to most people they think it's too volatile and risky most people aren't going to take the time to educate themselves on how to do it right but you're not most people are you at TFNN you'll get the guidance you need to refine your strategies 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Think or Swim for more information just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com welcome back folks we got markets open you got an S&P climbing above the highs of the week right now you catch a bid up 11 points at 4308 Nasdaq 100 you're up by 78 points let's jump over and see man Netflix sells off a bid on the open up by 3.3% you jump over to GM on the Tesla news up by 5.4% you jump over to Tesla Tesla 5.5% we jump around to some of the other fang stocks Apple shares up 7 tenths percent look at this man Apple making a run we were just at 178 yesterday we touched 182 right now $60 billion added in market cap from yesterday these tech companies man Microsoft barely in the green Microsoft flat right now Alphabet shares basically flat as well yeah let's jump around some of those banks man JP Morgan down about 3 tenths percent right now Bank of America down about 2 tenths percent jump some airlines JetBlue so check this one out right you want to talk about building a base I mean maybe that's where it is right I was looking at this thing you talk about a weekly now where is that line that I'm looking at here where that line is folks at the COVID lows right remarkable man just learning so much being in the markets in the last 3 or 4 years did you ever think folks when this thing got back up to 21 96 you got above where we were pre-COVID that in less than 2 years you would be back at COVID lows when travel wasn't existing so many remarkables but guess what man maybe that's a little bit of acceleration you got JetBlue up by 9 tenths percent right now you put things back on even a daily excuse me an hourly and you can see the acceleration we had this week from 7 bucks up to 750 right now but be careful man you still got a floor in this equity about 80 10 percent below where it's trading at right now yeah we jump over to GameStop with their news that Cohen is becoming the chairman 29 bucks was the spike we're trading at 21 89 and I imagine that's a slow crawl too much slower prices you got to back it up amazing you got to back it up that far now yeah beginning of 2021 look at this you got 94 pennies on this chart in 2020 folks okay you still trading at $21 on GameStop remarkable all right let's see what else yeah we talked about Netflix we talked about the Fed I mean it's a little bit light on news today as we jump around we got a lot of hot takes of course with the Fed coming up next week you have CPI data coming up on Tuesday and boy take a look at this market I mean you talk about strength man you got 43 27 hanging out there my dad's been talking about on the spy believe it was on the spy 431 are we looking are we looking at this one yeah he's probably talking about that that high 431 we're trading right now at 433 on the spy that seems like you should peg that number right for considering how far we've come you're going to hear a lot of bull talk this weekend as well and I imagine that's not going to go anywhere man very little impetus for this market to trade lower as we come into the first Fed pause hi pause skip in 15 months now I give you the flip side of that okay because it's important to look at both sides folks the flip side of that is that we just had the Nasdaq 100 what do people say folks they say the market's forward looking by three to six months right something like that while we just have the Nasdaq 100 trade up 3500 points which is over 30% is that right yeah we're pushing over 30% I think now on 11,000 yeah you're talking about an over 30% acceleration okay and that doesn't even sum up the stocks that are carrying this thing though because I've talked about before you got Apple adding almost a trillion dollars in market category of Microsoft adding 800 billion in market cap you have NVIDIA taking over the world when it comes to AI you have Tesla resurging higher I mean Tesla kicked off the year at 120 you're trading to 246 meta kicked off the year at 120 you're trading to 262 right mammoth numbers a lot of optimism is built in folks okay and especially we've had a nice combination of recent events in terms of the AI craze taking over right as the Fed begins to pause but be careful because and you don't have to go back that far man okay I'm going to pull up the S&P and really that's a three year let's go back for a three-year weekly you know when the Fed began hiking okay you had the market trade from 4800 down to 4200 in about the three months preceding that two-and-a-half months to be exact and then you had the market actually pop almost 10% following their first hike many times you come into that number we've now traded from a price point of 3833 and in about the last two-and-a-half months the market has climbed almost 500 points from where we were trading at it's about a 15 point 15 percentage point acceleration and this is the S&P it's not even the NASDAQ 100 okay and that's not cherry picking some low that's just picking the low that we accelerated from in the middle of March about two-and-a-half months similar timeframe to the Fed right very difficult to imagine this market goes up forever we do have a couple highs that can go after though right you're at 4327 in the S&P 4600 seems like the next logical spot and then boy you're going for all-time highs at 4808 would be remarkable but boy we got a lot of remarkable stuff going on this market across the board let's take a look at the dollar index take a look at the dollar index a little bit longer term dollar index up to 115 almost you're back to under 102 we're sitting at 10340 on the dollar index 50% pullback on the dollar index take a look at the 10-year little bit of a different story as we're just chopping around near basically the lower price higher yield portion of this curve which is remarkable when you look at the dollar index right and that's the thing that doesn't quite match up in terms of you could make the case that the dollar index right to 115 when we were the only game in town we were hiking the Fed is now nearing the end of their hiking cycle so things are going to change we're not going to be the only game in town our interest rates are going to decline therefore there's going to be necessarily less need or want or demand for dollars resulting in the pullback to 102 and you could make that case because the market was probably anticipating maybe inflation would come down a little bit quicker than it did maybe we'd get a pause or a skip before the June meeting but what's remarkable is you get that entire pullback in the dollar and you're back at levels that we were at almost when they began hiking we're back to where we were in April of last year in terms of where the dollar is meanwhile yield is not even close man yields you got the 10-year you got pretty quick I guess but the 10-year is still about 7 points lower than where we were at and as you can see let's put this maybe after a similar timeframe but as you can see man we're chopping around you got lows at 108 but meanwhile we're back at prices you were at in September and we're not even close to where you were in April which was a price of about 120 in the 10-year so something needs to catch up there with yields and the dollar but I don't imagine it's going to happen today man because markets are euphoric and we are coming into a meeting that can't stress enough man and you're going to hear some strong wording I imagine from the chairman because there's nothing else he can really do in light of you inflation between 4-5% and they are not going to hike this meeting so you better believe he's going to try and tell the world that if things don't go the way they think they're going to go that yes they'll come back and hike I can't wait to see how the market reacts when he does that not really sure stay tuned folks we'll be coming back one more segment we'll talk about some of the other equities coming up next week as well and we'll see you next time the opening call newsletter is 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you by Vista Gold traded on the NYSE American NTSX under the symbol VGZ folks you got markets pushing higher S&P right now up 16 points trading at 43 14 NASDAQ 100 right now up by 160 and trading 14,620 men we're within the stone's throw of the entire move that we got on Wednesday man you talk about some volatility you're talking about 400 points down 400 points up that's about a 2.5% move from where this index the NASDAQ 100 was 14,675 you make it to a low Wednesday evening Thursday morning of 14,276 yeah 400 points is where you moved and you almost got it all back just like that man remarkable let's jump over yeah Tesla up 5.5% Netflix shares up 2.3% they give back a huge chunk of that move I think people already knew that was happening man meta shares down about four tenths percent Microsoft shares up 8 tenths percent there you go we haven't looked at Amazon yet Amazon up a 4% jumping around some other growth stocks Uber shares up by half a percent and yeah you want to talk about some big returns man anybody that plowed into tech they're doing well and Tiger another Tiger Tiger global among the hedge funds riding the AI mania to may gains there are five 15.5 in the first five months doesn't seem remarkable but boy you look where they are and it was quite a month Microsoft and meta were Tiger global's top two holdings at the end of the first quarter along with Tesla now excuse it those stocks along with of course the other ones are the ones that eked out some gains but nonetheless main numbers yeah some pretty stark numbers depending on where you were as we know it's all about those bank stocks man we'll talk a little bit of Manhattan now okay now first we'll talk about not first we got to talk about the cost man because this is crazy we're I'm biased living in Florida of course but I come from the not northeast come from Massachusetts come from Texas and folks it's a bummer it gets so political because there are tremendous benefits to some of the taxes that do get paid in Massachusetts there's wasteful stuff everywhere and blanket statements are not appropriate okay and they don't compass everything but my perception is well and looking around in Florida and this is not representative of just taxes okay but the school system unfortunately in Florida folks is nowhere near where it is in Massachusetts and so there are things that matter but boy you talk about some numbers as well man I like paying those state income taxes don't get me wrong and boy you look at some of the numbers okay now this talks about you could and you gotta love the tantalizing headline right 200 grand well if you make that isn't obscene amount of money still 200 grand if you're making 650 grand and that is the difference they do they put you at when you combine the taxes and the cost of living and the taxes are about 10% is what the difference is man and they go down the line even somebody making okay and I would argue that it's a much bigger deal for the person making 150 that they say 48,000 then it is the person making 650 saves 200 right now 650 in Manhattan is basically gonna be like 850 in Miami is what they're saying which is a pretty large yearly income okay but the person making 150 and Manhattan is probably barely surviving at 150,000 man they look at the costs that go into that okay cost you're 138% higher in Manhattan than the US average in Miami they're still higher but only 23% higher in Miami average and when you combine that with the no-state taxes okay and when you talk about the higher echelon 650,000 a year you're talking about effective rate of 45% in New York that drops to 35 in Miami by the lack of state income taxes now they go over various different ones okay Chicago not really a big difference man you see how things really differentiate from big cities and this is gonna matter when everybody can move so if you didn't get a chance to read this article on Bloomberg check it out because it's pretty stark how things combine and the difference is and you even look at San Francisco right New York's the starkest because of Manhattan and where it is now we jump from there okay good luck getting an apartment in Manhattan because it's so expensive and everybody wants to live there rents reach a third straight monthly record with more pain to come as the market enters its most competitive season I mean it's just so cool how things are gonna play out here in terms of over 5, 10, 20 years and time goes quickly man and real differences are shaping our lifestyles which are shaping where people can live and when you have a stark difference like this in terms of the cost and folks one of the first reasons and I'm going back to about 2005 I moved down here in Florida talking about 18 years my goodness can't believe it and when I first came down here you could get an apartment at a decent complex that had a pool in it okay in Largo Florida so you're not talking about downtown Tampa by the water you're not talking about Clearwater Beach next to the sand pool resort okay you're talking about Largo Florida but I'm a stone's throw from the beach there from TFNM headquarters in Clearwater Florida at the time and you could get an apartment a nice one bedroom apartment not a studio a one bedroom one bath apartment in a complex that had a pool yet again for $500 for $500 you could rent an apartment at that time those days are long gone as we know but it was one of the big things that got me to Florida even then because folks in the year 2005 you could probably find an apartment for $500 to rent somewhere around the Boston area but I'm not sure it would have been akin to living in Largo Florida with a complex with a pool 10 minutes from one of the most beautiful beaches in the whole world and so those things matter and what I'm saying is those matter here we are 18 years later and they're still mattering and you're seeing now the workplace shift take place that nobody needs to be in their physical location now that's changing too right bosses are trying to bring people back but there's a lot more mobility in people and their jobs etc even if you're moving and you can work from home you know two days a week something like that so maybe you want a better quality of life you want a bigger house because you're home with your kids you know two days during the week and two days on the weekend you're just working a Monday through Friday nine to five and you hang out with them on the weekend and yeah so you're seeing a play out in Manhattan and how about the rents man May's median up $154 from April I mean that's a huge rise and you're up almost 10% from a year ago Manhattan is in its own class to put it lightly as in this is not happening everywhere but it's remarkable what's going on across the board with prices etc in May apartments flow off the market at the fastest pace since last July and August that's when the most competitive months units were listed for just 26 days not bad when you think about that's the average right pretty remarkable man Brooklyn you're paying up as well man 3550 is what you're paying there for the median up 92.2% Northwest Queens 3400 stay tuned folks we'll be back to finish up the show don't go away we'll be back you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening of the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com the opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman wave the Chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day first time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up tfnn.com educating investors everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence this mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market to stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at tfnn.com when you subscribe you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pesavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis after all he's got 45 years experience as a day trader Larry will also provide daily charts, videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time first time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today tfnn.com educating investors this segment is brought to you by Think or Swim for more information just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com welcome back folks we got the S&Ps right now up by 19 we'll call it 20 points straight in 43.18 and how about the Nasdaq 100 man up 160 points check out the chart that we were looking at earlier man let's back it up you talk about parabolic a little cup and handle as our man Basil Chapman may say he's coming up next 14,666 I mean we get it all back within two days man we're at a critical area now as in you get it all back we're up 2.5% from the lows that we were at just about 36 hours ago and the market's pushing higher we got it across the board right now man it's up 5.7% right you jump over to Amazon is up 2.3% Apple catches a bid up 8.10% Microsoft shares up 1.3% Google shares up more than a percent right now NVIDIA up 2.5% right now Meta flat what's going on Meta shares but yeah as you see man green across the board we jump over to the dollar index just been chopping around 103.43 right now on the dollar index we got the 10-year going lower we got the 10-year off almost 17 ticks right now so what do we got we got a little bit of lower price higher yield and the market loves the idea that I guess AI is going to take over the world man I don't know what it likes it likes the fact that the Fed is going to pause folks and it's anticipating that pause coming up on Wednesday and all I'll say is there's a lot of optimism built into this market we're now up 18 points at 43.16 and as I mentioned right you got to go back to the high of about 43.27 almost a year ago 10 months almost 43.27 and so far we got a high this morning of 43.19 in the S&P Russell actually in the red right now look at the Russell man even the Russell if you think about everything that's been going on with the regional banks is only about 110 points away from where you were last August which is not that much when you think about how they got hammered so much on those regional banks versus the S&P versus the Nasdaq 100 Nasdaq 100 you put this on the chart well above that last August high now as you were 13.7 almost a thousand points above we'll move up alright folks thanks so much for starting your Friday off with me stay tuned we got our man Basil Chapman coming up next have a great weekend have a safe weekend folks no drunk driving look forward to seeing you back here early Monday morning for Fed week but stay tuned our man Basil Chapman he's coming up live