 What's up navigation traders welcome to this week's video update today is Friday March 1st February's in the books, and I just posted a Recap of the closed trades on the blog so you can go check that out But for you our pro members we like to dive a little bit deeper go through not only our closed trades But also our open positions, so we are going to do that after we cap after we Recap this week's trade alerts But before we jump into that we got to let everybody know who got caught being hot this week in the community and This week, I mean there's a ton of activity So and it continues to grow and get better and better and more and more people are getting engaged And so it's getting tougher and tougher to pick a winner each week But this week congrats to our friend north of the border our Canadian friend who goes by the name penny Lofer congrats penny. You got caught being hot and we will hook you up with some navigation tradehacker swag So congrats on that All right, let's jump into the alerts for the week starting with Monday Which was the see here scrolling down Had a decent number of alerts this week The 25th so opening adjusting trade in wheat So we added an iron condor and meet in wheat out in the May cycle with 60 days to expiration Let's take a look at where we're at on wheat wheat bottom kind of fell out of wheat here I Mean look at this move here. So we actually got wheat has been just a crazy one. We've been in for so long We actually were about to get out for a profit at that point and the bottom fell off So we're just gonna continue to keep battling which is fine I don't mind it at all if we weren't in this same position that we'd been in we would be jumping into a new one and either Weed or soybeans or one of the grains But here's where we are with our here's the the new iron condor. We just put on Obviously the markets are closed. So you don't want to necessarily pay attention to that When they're closed, but still well within range here Even if even after that down move and then as you'll see in a later alert We went ahead and closed out our short put vertical price had moved way down beyond the expected move So we went ahead and just closed that piece out Next trade was a closing trade in Adobe So we had a pre earnings long call in Adobe booked almost 30% of profit in just a few days Price moved higher IV expanded a bit gave us a chance to book that quick winner Next trade was a rolling adjusting trade in XLK So we've got this long put vertical on an XLK that we originally put on for that short Delta exposure And we so we rolled this out to April with 52 days Adjusted our strikes up to compensate for the price move and just continuing to hold this for that short Delta exposure If you take a look at XLK, you can see we've got a little bit of profit since the roll But just kind of holding on to that for that downside protection Which speaking of short Delta, so we are at we took off a couple of long earnings trades this morning And so we're we're getting close to that five to one ratio I know some folks in the community are even higher than that We like to stay within that one to one to five to one on our short Delta versus our theta ratio Now not so our our theta numbers are low because implied volatility is low We haven't been putting on as many new positions So that's part of it and then the other part is with the market moving up like it has We naturally start to acquire more and more short Delta So those two factors combined now we're at we're bumping up against that kind of five to one range So next week, you know, we're gonna be looking to add some additional long Exposure and potentially cutting loose some short Delta because we want to stay balanced. We don't want to get too short I mean even though the market has had just this crazy run to the upside, you know, and you can say well Let's do for a downturn. Yeah, yeah, you know, you're probably right in saying that But there's nothing that says the thing can't continue to rip higher as well So we want to stay balanced keep our portfolio in line with our criteria And our criteria is between one to one and five to one if you want to get more short than that That's completely fine. That's up to you But that's kind of the range that we like to stay in To help protect ourselves for you know, if there is some downside and then obviously, you know Don't get too short. So we get you know, keep getting losses if the market rips higher But anyway, that's kind of where we're at on that whole deal Next trade was a rolling adjusting trade in DIA. So we rolled our short call verticals in from March to April adjusted our strikes accordingly there and So we've got a few different pieces. Excuse me. No, we've just got that one short call vertical now in DIA We cut the other one loose a couple a couple weeks ago So you can see we've got a little bit of profit after that roll, but just again hanging on to this for that short Delta exposure Next trade was a rolling adjusting trade in CL oil And so we went ahead and rolled this we had about 17 days to expiration Rolled out to May with 49 kept the same strikes still inverted at 53 58 And then we're also holding that 56 straddle as well And I'll go over this when we go over kind of monthly recap of our trades But we're we're now down about 1900 bucks on oil So we've come all the way back from a you know, a huge drastic move in oil Towards the end of last year We see right here just a huge one directional move down We were able to manage out of that and get back to a point We're you know getting back to close to profits down about 1900 bucks In oil. So let's take a look at these two positions. We rolled this 56 straddle Uh out in May and and the price has come down And so we're dead centered here made back almost a thousand dollars since the roll on that piece And then we've got our other piece here, which is the 53 call 58 put You can see price is fairly centered there as well Just waiting for some more time to pass In oil to collect some more of that theta decay Next trade was a rolling adjusting trade in XRT So we rolled our short strangling XRT from March to April Adjusted our puts up just one strike from 43 to 44 And so we're just kind of holding on to that. We've got some short exposure here meaning we do want price to move down But uh, no no new adjustments at this point. I mean, they're you know, there's still a lot of Dollars left in that put side. So just holding on to this You know, I'd love to add another piece centered around current price in XRT The problem is and we've had a decent contraction just today and implied volatility, but IV percentile at 22 IV rank at nine not really looking to add Cell premium at that point. So we're just holding steady for now Uh, hoping for a little bit of a down move in XRT along with a lot of other things Uh, next trade was a rolling adjusting trade in Nat gas So we rolled one of our short strangles in Nat gas from April to May And then we're still holding our other one in April So let's take a look first at the one that we rolled Uh, it's right here. You can see price is right here. So we could use a little bit of up movement some more time to pass on that piece And then we've got our other piece which is still in uh in april Which if we take a look still 25 days to expiration So we're gonna wait until this one gets closer to that 21 days before we roll this one But you can see this one's pretty dead centered And uh, you know, we've made back a lot of profit there. So we're down still down a few thousand dollars in Natty gas But working our way back nicely in that one. So around the same time for those of you who've been with us For a few months, you know Nat gas and oil Both had just crazy moves around the same time had a huge move up and then a huge move down It's really been chopping around since then but working our way back nicely in Nat gas So look for this one to be rolled out and collect some more credit Next week and we'll continue to play the game Next trade closing adjusting trade in IYR. So we had an iron condor Close that out booked around 40 of max profit on that piece of the trade And then we're still holding Uh, I'll go to the I'll go to the charts here. I'll go to the platform because we had another trade in IYR here Later on so I'll go to that here in a minute Next trade opening adjusting trade in IWM. So we went ahead and added an I uh an iron condor and IWM In the april cycle with 50 days to expiration And then we're still holding our two sets of short call verticals in IWM as well So if we take a look here Here's one of our short call verticals looking for some downside to get back into range there And then with this one here same thing now This is the one we'll probably cut loose next week unless we get a decent move down Because you can see the gray area Represents the expected move the one standard deviation move. So once we get to a point where we're kind of out of that range Uh, then we'll either close or roll it. So depending on where we're at with everything We'll either close or roll that next week The iron condor that we just added was in april and you can see it's still very centered We just put that on so nothing to do but wait on that one Next trade closing adjusting trade in smh. So we had a couple different sets of short strangles close this one out We were waiting for a little bit of a down move to get out of this and we got it on uh the 27th And and so we went ahead and closed that out booked a booked a decent profit And so we and then we've still got another piece in smh Which is this adjusted strangle here where price is hanging out in the upper end of the range And so just looking for a little bit of downside to benefit that piece Next trade avgo. So we had a pre earnings long call and avgo got a nice move up today this morning on friday To uh to get out of that for 30% Uh, oh excuse me. I'm sorry. Yeah, we opened that trade and then we got out today Which let's see let's just go to that here. Yeah booked. Yeah. Oh, yeah that one we booked over 50% of profit Let's take a look at the chart. I was getting avgo and cosco mixed up, but Avgo was the one that worked well came down We got in here on the 27th and then popped a little higher the next day and then today Popped up and we got out for that Over 50% of max profit on that one And then the next trade was an opening trade in forge slash zn And this is the notes And so we actually we typically traditionally had used tlt as a reference for implied volatility However, one of our members allen kind of reminded me of ief. So I've been kind of looking at this for a while And if we take a look at ief It it is uh the uh bar 7 to 10 year which tracks closer to the notes And you can see implied volatility has popped up in that and so we went ahead and sold some premium in Zn, which has been making a move lower the last few days We just put this on so this is still fairly centered and just waiting for some time to pass in zn Next trade was an opening trade in ea. This is credit to big willy in our community So if this goes wrong everyone can blame him But now a great job big willy pointing this out They announced earnings Earlier this month so you don't have to worry about earnings in this cycle implied volatility ivy percentile still over that 50 level When we put this on So still very centered got some profit there not quite enough not enough to take off yet But just playing the waiting game in ea And and this is keep in mind this is I've talked about this quite a bit but We look at etfs and futures first. Okay, that's where we want to go first to sell premium That's our kind of our core strategy And then after that, you know, you know, there's a lot of low implied volatility across the board and in a lot of symbols now So then you've got to start looking elsewhere. That's why we start doing more directional plays We'll start doing more earnings plays and we'll start looking at selling premium in stocks That don't have earnings announcements coming up. And so that's what we're doing here in ea So good job big willy. Thanks for the suggestion there And that's just the power of the community if you if you have not gotten in the community Make sure you jump in there just a ton of good info kind of ton of good Traders helping other traders. So make sure you jump in there and and get engaged. It's it's been a great resource for everybody Next trade closing trade avgo. I just mentioned that one next trade closing adjusting trade in wheat So we closed out that short put vertical in wheat in the april cycle. I already mentioned that Opening adjusting trade in IYR. So this is where we today. We added another iron condor in IYR. So let's take a look at that And so here is here's our march Short call vertical looking for that for some downside in that and again This is kind of the same situation that I mentioned before is, you know, it would take a pretty significant move to get back into range here So we may look to cut this loose Next week or potentially roll it depending on where we are with everything And then here is the iron condor that we just added And with lower price symbols like this. I mean, this is under $100. It's about $84 symbol at this point You know, we like to we like to bring these Strikes in closer to the money. So if we go to the trade tab, for example And take a look, you know, typically our iron condors we sell around the 20 delta But if we tried to sell around the 20 delta here, we're barely going to get enough credit To even make the trade worth it. So we really tighten these up. You can see this Short strike on the call sides at 38. This one's at 33 on the put side So we really tighten in those short strikes And widen out those wings and it's almost like the uh, it's kind of a cross between a butterfly and an iron condor It's a very tight iron condor to collect enough credit to make the trade worthwhile And so that's what we did in IYR Lastly closing trade in Costco. So we had a pre earnings long call in Costco We were able to book almost 25% profit We're trying to get we're trying to get over 30 But it just kind of fiddled around went sideways for a few days some of that theta decayed Out of those long options And so instead of holding this over the weekend, we went ahead and booked our profits Now it was it was up here and then Very shortly after we got out it dropped So I know some members were having a problem getting filled at similar prices But now later in the day, it's ripped all the way back up Pretty close to where we got out. So Hopefully everybody's good there. Now look at the implied volatility too. So that did not happen We got out before that happened so that could potentially be helping other people's positions as well So if you're still in Costco, hopefully it stays up here and you can get out Monday if you have not already So those are all the alerts. Let's take a look at some of the other positions That I didn't mention one is a four slash six B, which is the British pound See we got a short strangle on here prices hanging out in the upper end of the range pretty pretty break even at this point I mentioned oil Uh, and then let's see e s we've got this uh long put vertical and e s looking for some downside to benefit that We're just keeping this on for a hedge for some of that short delta exposure I mentioned natty gas Uh z n z w di a I mentioned that one Uh e a e em we've got this short call vertical on here just looking for some more downside to benefit that Uh e w w uh pretty dead center. We we actually could have taken this off today You know, we've been in this trade for 15 days. We've got a little over 40 percent of max profit So we'll look to exit that early next week I w m We've got an iron condor here and then the two short call verticals. I mentioned that Nvidia we've got an iron condor here got some profit in that one Not quite enough to take off yet. So holding on there QQQ we've got two sets of short call verticals And again kind of the same situation. We'll be looking to either roll or cut cut one or two of these loose Early next week And this one's pretty close to getting back into range. So a little bit of a down move could get us back on that one smh sp y Oh, yeah, sp y so we've got an iron condor here You can see prices barely breached the break even here So if price continues higher, we will close out that untested side early next week And then we've also got this other short Uh short call vertical looking for some downside to get back in so as you as you can see kind of the theme is We would love a little bit of a down move that would help tremendously XL K That one need needs some downside to get some more profit there XL V same kind of story here We uh, we put this on we've we're holding this for that short delta exposure And then xrt I mentioned price kind of hanging out in the upper end of the range. So Those are all the positions what I want to do now is I want to take a look at kind of where we're at Year to date So I always I always put out the closed trades, but that doesn't tell the real story. However For our pro members, I want to make sure that you see kind of where we're at with our open positions Where we're at where we're at year to date because I can't I don't want to do this to the public because they're not pro members I don't want to show them our open positions because that's designed exclusively for you our pro members And so here's where we're at. So if we go to the monitor tab and we look at profits and losses Going back a year to date. You can see we've got the british pound. We've made a little bit of money in You know, we've made back almost 16 000 dollars in oil Uh, 78 about 18 000 actually Now one thing I'll show you here and I'll skip ahead because I was I was in contact with toss with thinkorswim And so I'm showing total profit on the year of a little over 8700 That's actually not correct. Uh, we are actually a little over 5700 dollars in profit So there's there's a three thousand dollar Difference here and that'll I'll just I've just noted that to keep track of going forward I talked to toss for about an hour on the phone. I still never got the best answer that I was looking for But basically what they're saying is and I want to point this out because some of you all may have the same situation Where your overall p&l is different than what you started with with the year And what your net lick is showing today? So we're up about 5700 But this is showing 8700 and it has to do with future current open futures positions That were rolled that were continued over from 2018 through 2019 Okay, so that's the best explanation. I can give you it's the way that they they manage it I don't I didn't think it was the best explanation But if you had but if you were trading futures in 2018 and ended 2019 and you carried over some open positions You may have a little discrepancy in what this number is showing versus what you know, your ending balance for 2018 was versus what your net lick is today, so fyi so Oil and that gas are kind of the two main culprits here So, uh, you know, whether that's we've made back 16 17 15 000 somewhere in that neighborhood We've made back a lot of money in oil Just year to date in 2019 over the last couple months Uh, yes, we're down about 1700 bucks on that one. That's our we're holding that as a hedge for that short delta exposure You can see on in gold. We had one trade made a little bit of money there nat gas We've made back some money here. You can see about 2380 right there Uh, still down a few thousand on that one Zb had a one trade there that was profitable for a few hundred dollars I'm just going to go over some of these that are over a thousand one way or another wheat down about 1700 bucks On that and then we had the other piece that we made about 375. So down about 1400 on that one Uh, you can see dia another big one that we're down Obviously with the market moving higher us having short call vertical spreads on We're taking some heat on that Let's see 604 eww up on that one Iwm so if you can see a kind of a consistent theme here dia spy iwm These are ones that we're all down on due to that Having that short delta exposure on and those are going against us with the market going higher Let's see this one is lululemon took a loss on that one 981 that was a pre earnings trade I believe And then we've got qqq smh. We're down on spy. We're down about $2,500 on that trade So here's here's the bottom line. We are like I said, we are at about $5,700 of profit Start of the year with about 86,000 And so that equals we're up about six and a half percent on the year So don't quote me on that. That's not an exact figure. But just you know, just trying to give you guys a ballpark of where we're at And so, you know, okay here. I mean and think about this. We are we've been short Short delta Market's been ripping higher and we're still making money. So is it as much as we'd hope for? No, but if we get a down move, you know a decent sized down move We will be doing extremely well on the year And uh, and so yeah, I mean that's that's trading. So you gotta you gotta play the card your dealt And that is what we're doing. So Hope all that is helpful everyone. Have a great weekend and we'll talk to you next week