 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Sunday is going to be a spectacular day for football from start to finish. We have got chiefs and dolphins in the morning We have got ravens and seahawks in the opening window We have got eagles and cowboys in the late window And of course we top things off with the bangles and the bills that is a banger of a day from start to finish We're gonna break down those key games for today here on the show by talking to Dr. Ed Feng and getting his read on what his numbers say about those key games his favorite bets at Fandall sportsbook This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here as I have every Thursday by Dr. Ed Feng check out his work at the power bank comm and check about on Twitter at the power and can add week number nine is an Absolute dandy. How you doing today? I'm doing great I'm sporting the lion's hat because it's not every week that you beat a team and they fire the coach They fire the general manager and they benched the quarterback So it was quite a week for the Detroit Lions not to say that it was unexpected at all the way that the game Happened could have been even worse Jared got through a pick six, but I'm doing pretty well You we tease through key numbers for reasons because it's a you know We get they were seven after one points you get across seven get across three and stuff like that We tease and I tease them at the Chargers But like didn't need to for either game because both the Chargers and the Lions Cover those games the traditional markets pretty easily and add honestly like they won by 12 or so they could have won by 20 so many in that game so many. Yeah, I mean, I mean the raiders have one good drive and That was about it It was annoying that I had I had over 44 and a half which was good for 30 seconds before they had a penalty call back And they correct Reynolds touchdown late. So that was a bummer But overall your Lions playing if I'm gonna call me your Lions now on just you know Your Lions playing good football except having back for next week But as they fill in for the best team in football being on by we do have some pretty fun games for this week We'll break down those games break down with ed numbers ed's numbers say about those games and much more You're in just one second but first looking for our college football breakdown week number 10 That is already posted on the the covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcast We talked about the key games Mizzou Georgia and others for this week That is up on the covering the spread podcast feed the Fandall YouTube page and Fandall TV plus in the same place You can find our Breeders Cup preview We talked to Dubbs Anderson the Fandall TV and TV G to get his read on this weekend's biggest races at Santa Anita Park find all those in the same place covering the spread podcast feed Fandall YouTube page and Fandall TV plus Score early this NFL season with Fandall America's number one sportsbook right now new customers get hundred dollar hundred fifty dollars in bonus bets With any winning a five dollar money line bet That is a hundred and fifty bucks if your team wins if you've been thinking about joining Fandall There is no better time to get in on the action. 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Hope is here because gamblinghelplinema.org or call 1-800-327-5050 or 24-7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8 open Y or text open Y in New York Now Ed we're in week 9 and I joked about the Lions being the top team in the NFL That was a joke But there is some question as to who that top team in the NFL is right now There's no one dominant team at least based on my perspective So when you take each team's entire body of work thus far, who do your numbers have as being the top team at the moment? Yeah, I think that's a really interesting question in terms of let's look at it in terms of Adjusted for who you played which is what I do on my site and Let's just take that right so I'll look at things like margin victory I'll look at passing success rate yards for past attempt so on and so forth But only based on the current season These are not the metrics that we're gonna make point spreads by there There's still gonna be some other components that go in there, but right now I mean I have Baltimore as the top team based on the current season that shouldn't really be much of a surprise they've played pretty well and You know, it was only three short weeks ago where they were I don't know five and two four and two something and they had lost Two flukey games that they probably shouldn't have lost got a lot of value in them in the game against Tennessee in London That hasn't happened again. The markets have really caught up there and then the NFC You know San Francisco still the best team by the numbers by the metrics from the current season their second And that's not much of a surprise. I think you have to look at the performance for the whole season You have to balance just their just their blazing hot start with you know, not really getting the results over the last two games Whatever's going on with Brock perry in his concussion not playing as well but look the Niners are a really good football team and They should be the favorites. I actually have Detroit as the second best team in the NFC and I also don't think that that's a surprise I think they're fifth and Yeah, you know look this team is gonna be able to sling the ball. It's just about anybody in the NFL Pass offense is the most sticky predictive statistic that we can get and The defense isn't terrible. They're they're kind of getting close to NFL average, which is I mean it's not as You know getting the NFL average for Detroit is not quite the miracle that it would be for like the Raiders But it isn't it is an act of faith and and they may they may be legitimately Good, I'm not good, but I mean they just need to be average. Yeah, I think give themselves a chance so yeah, definitely a team to keep an eye on and Yeah, so that's that's kind of by the metrics from the current season. Yeah, we're very similar again looking the same way You did at just this year. I've got San Francisco one. I have Buffalo two It's a lot of faith. I think in their offense. The defense is pretty rough And it's not gonna get better given the injuries to Mappolano, Tredavious white stuff like that Like it's not gonna get better But the offense just so good that they kind of like naturally rise there Baltimore is three for me because that defense is so good the offense has been fantastic Then Miami Kansas City and then Detroit is number two in the NFC, but number six overall So sounds like we're pretty similar on Those being the top six teams Dallas, Philadelphia right there as well behind Detroit So it sounds like we're pretty similar I think that the noteworthy thing for me yet is that we both have Baltimore very high because when you look at Superbowl odds and stuff like that. They're not gonna grayed out as well in that regard as other teams. We've been discussing now right, I Think that with Baltimore like there's still an element of prior in like good good numbers and stuff like that But like a prior should be pretty good on Baltimore as well So should we be taking them more seriously with it when it comes to Super Bowl markets as well? I Certainly think so. I mean, I think the prior on Baltimore was strong But it couldn't be too strong given what we saw at the end of the season Lamar Jackson more than playing You kind of flame out. Honestly, I mean if you remember they really should have beat Cincinnati in that playoff game Cincinnati right they were knocking on the doorstep with With Hunley, right? Yeah as the quarterback and then and then since then it takes that phone will return the distance You know, we're looking at Super Bowl odds. I kind of don't know at all. What to think of that Philly team I don't think they should be co-fair. It's certainly believe in Kansas City. Although they they kind of have their problems I would have Baltimore higher. Yeah I need to run my stuff through the unabated simulator and see what they're telling me on Super Bowl odds because Right now Baltimore looks really good, you know, and I think their defense performance is going to rest a little bit But sure, I think they've been solid enough on offense That's you really have to like their prospects like they're a team if their defense Faulters the offense can make up for it. Like we know they're multiple paths to a win like they could Stifle you on both sides like they did against Detroit They could play really good defense like they did against against Arizona. They have multiple paths to victory. I think that's pretty enticing so Baltimore team we both I think Understandably high on as of right now Let's talk now about that fun game on Sunday morning in Frankfurt, Germany with the Dolphins taking on the chiefs right now Chiefs are one and a half point favorites total in this game is 50 and a half and Ed The dolphins have been awesome so far this year overall But have come a short when they faced really top level teams like the Eagles and the Bills Can they buck that trend here in Germany against the chiefs? Yeah, I'm not really so sure. So the goods for miami is that they're kind of slowly creeping up In my past defense numbers. They were really at the bottom of the NFL They're 25th now when I look at passing success rate adjusted for opponent So that's progress. Maybe they get jailing ramsey back zaving Howard hasn't played the cornerback hasn't played since week six So that that's obviously not a good thing. You'd like to see them get a veteran like that back Kansas City, you know Kind of didn't play that well against Denver last week. So that was certainly unideal from from their part Patrick Mahomes had the flu You know, again, I think we've talked about this team in terms of look the offensive numbers will get better They're they're top 10, but look they're they're they're going to figure it out They're going to figure it out on that side of the ball It's interesting to see that the second most targeted receiver is rashi rice who's a rookie Out of uh smu actually getting almost 2.5 yards per out run Which is almost a yard more than the average for a wide receiver So it's been disappointing with cadarius tony and marquez velas scanning, but Uh sky more but You know, if you can have a rookie really break out We'll see. I mean, you're probably going to get some regression in those numbers But he is the second most targeted guy behind kelsey. So I find that interesting. My numbers have uh, kansas city by four I would definitely lean that way. I haven't bet it yet. I think I probably will Uh, because I'm certainly going to be watching this game on sunday morning. Yeah, with rashi rice, his role keeps on expanding Um, it is based on the yards for outrun is currently based on the small sample and that will regress as it grows larger But he's playing more now, which means I know that some people wanted the chiefs to trade for Whether it be like yonder hopkins or whatever it was at the trade deadline Like I think they're kind of viewing rashi rice and his progression as a rookie as being like their mid-year acquisition at wide receiver because Tony has had a long time to get healthy and learn this playbook still is not there sky more keeps on approving He's kind of not that guy but rashi rice does give him a legit second option We've seen them at homes if he has kelsey plus anything else can be Among the best quarterbacks of football and they've been efficient passing the ball Even without having a legitimate second pass catcher. So I think being behind the chief still Is the right way to go even though that offense looked I kind of out of sync so far I think there is room for growth, especially as rashi rice's role continues to grow I think so too. I mean It's it's kind of an active faith that we say Andy reed and patrimon homes will get it done But that that's been a pretty good assumption over the last however many seasons And I know they love 24 points to denver but that was based on weird fill position. The defense is still playing very well and they tend to get better as the year goes along there and That's not to say like they'll get better again this year. It's more to say I trust steve spagnolo as a defense coordinator to Keep them afloat defensively and I think that is a key strength for them for this year if the offense does sputter I think they could potentially Make up for that Let's talk now about the cowboys and the eagles in philadelphia We're right now the eagles are three point favorites total in this game Is 46 and a half and the cowboys have been a volatile team so far this year Ed they had a good volatile game last week, but they've had a lot of bad ones too So what's your overall read on dallas thus far? Yeah, I don't I don't know. I was really hot In the season. I still they're so up and down You know overall numbers wise they actually look pretty decent. They're ninth in my pass offense by justice success rate six on defense I think the ingredients are there for them to Kind of make it at the end of the season. Uh, am I optimistic about that? Yeah, not really but Um Yeah, we'll see I I'm I think I can make more of a case that you know, philadelphia is probably flying a little bit over They're certainly what their record suggests. They're seven and one They're a four and one in one score games and honestly that one loss was that jets game where they probably should have never even been in a one score game And jaylen hurts had a really bad game Philadelphia seven and one they come off the Super Bowl season. There's a lot of high expectations In reality, they've regressed just like I expected them to this pre-season when you look at the data based on this year Like we talked about at the end of the show. They're ninth That that's exactly the kind of regression that I expected coming into the season But with that said, you know, I mean I have eagles by three in this game by my number So certainly not seeing any value here. I do think the eagles are regressing um I'm kind of in that mood where I hope they play well for a couple games so we can fade them a little bit later But uh, this this is not the spot Yeah, I do show a bit of value in the cowboys. Um, the model I trust more with philadelphia because the other one like Puts a bigger emphasis on passing efficiency and they're so weird with how they operate I I think that trusting the one that views things more holistically is better with them this is the the eagles here by 1.5 points here So a bit of value on the dallas side, but I don't get enough to to take them right now. So to me, it's a stay away Um, I do think that the eagles are like you said coming back to earth a bit, which is kind of expected Just get just given how good they were last year I think most teams that are that good you expect to regress ninth the ninth best team is still a very good football team and They had the potential to be better as they get healthier in the secondary and stuff like that So maybe it's a spot where we do bet against them at some point I don't think this is the week though. Kind of like you said So I think for both of us this one's a being a stay away Broadly we're okay betting against philadelphia, but I think this might not be the spot Especially because it's you're buying in the cowboys coming off of a huge game. Um, they're very Very public team people tend to like the cowboys I think we'll see a spot to bet against the eagles eventually, but I agree with you edward This is probably not the week to do so Yep, absolutely Alrighty, let's talk about the sunday night game right now That is the bills at the Bengals were right now This total is 49 and a half and the Bengals are one of that point favorites And this one swung a ton over the weekend because after the bills played thursday They were two and a half point favorites over the Bengals Then the Bengals beat the 49ers and this one goes all the way to the Bengals here by two and a half It's now back down to one and a half but ed Is this an overreaction to what the Bengals did last week or is that type of move appropriate because they did beat a very good team there Yeah, it's it's a it's an overreaction I mean, I'm kind of kicking myself for not sending this out to members when it was buffalo plus two and a half points um, look it it's uh Look, you know buffalo, you know, hasn't had the best little stretch lately, but like they're still a pretty good football team they're they're a little bit down from my preseason prior but not a ton and um, I actually think they're going to get better they traded for resuel douglas look at the cornerback from green bay this year who's been solid if unspectacular for green bay over the last couple years Ken another above average nfl cornerback Cornerback help that defense. I potentially think it can So I think they can be better on that side of the ball overall by the data this year They're they're pretty good And then, you know, let's let's talk about since you right like when you look at the data from this year. They're they're exactly nfl average And of course, it's fair to say that look that's not really indicative of where they're at Joe burrow has his leg injury that he's played through that's not, you know That doesn't represent what this team is and and I get that But you're also when you make Cincinnati minus one and a half minus two You're essentially saying these teams are the same Which essentially means like you are really willing to throw out every bit of data from Cincinnati this year and put them back on those pre-season prior And if that's true, then, you know, you can have Cincinnati minus one and a half I think that's a little bit faulty just because they're since these defense was really good last year And that kind of came in with the expectations this year. They haven't been as good I think they're they're roughly Um nfl average and my adjusted passing success rate. They're actually 29th in pff coverage grade I think that's closer to the truth than the top five unit that they were last season I think that was the outlier. So I don't think they're as good on that side of the ball I trust my model here. It has a Cincinnati by by half a point. I think there's value still Buffalo plus one and a half. There was actually a plus two Out there this morning that I also missed but Say la vie, uh, I don't think this I don't think it's going back towards sincey But I still like Buffalo here. Maybe a little bit on the money line as well And the money line right now is plus 108. I took this tuesday at plus 136 Because I agree with you where I So you said you kind of throw out the entire what we've seen thus far to Justify Cincinnati. I did that. Um, I have them almost entirely back to their pre-season prior Because joe borough's healthy and I think that that makes a big difference. So if I put Cincinnati back to their pre-season prior I still showed value in the bills with where they were at and so I'm kind of having a hard time finding out what the What the pitch is for making Cincinnati Where they're at right now because even if I toss out all that Um, you know, the defense I will allow the data to come in for them Allowing the defense for Buffalo to come in there But the defense does not play well for them So like the model knows the defense does not play well for Buffalo The model knows to toss out the stuff from the bill the Bengals earlier on this year And it still says there's value on the bills even a plus one away in the money line right now I still show value there personally. So Even if I am as generous as possible Cincinnati, I can't get to this number. So to me That says I should agree with you and say even at plus 108 with the number having moved quite a bit The Buffalo bills still have value in this game right now Yeah, no, I and and like we we should not I don't know a lot of things happen in the NFL season teams play well teams play not as well Uh, I think Buffalo is just in a in a part where they're not playing well Before the start of the season, I remember talking to dr. Eric eager and he thinks Buffalo is the most talented roster in the NFL obviously Probably can't make that cake You have to adjust that because trade is quite is hurt and They do have some other injuries, but uh, I still think they're they're near the top Yeah, having josh Allen can cover up for a lot of things. Um, I've had my Ups and downs with him, but I think he's played well this year through that shoulder injury too So, uh, we're both in the bills right now against the Bengals plus one away at the money line right now at vandal sportsbook Any other bets stand out to you across week number nine ed Yeah, let's talk real quick about the thursday night game. I know this is not going to have a ton of shelf life, but uh I don't know. I I think it's an interesting exercise to pretend that will levis didn't play last week and See what this number would be and I guarantee you it would be north of three I really like this for minus two and a half here You kind of have to guess on how you make this number based on will levis Will levis was widely considered, uh, you know a player that wasn't ready to play in the nfl Of course, he goes out and throws four touchdown passes and a lot of long touchdown passes as well Uh, those passes look really good and I don't want to take that away from him But I'll also note that he had a 29 percent passing success rate that sack wilson type territory And I just I just don't think he's going to be able to do that again, especially against a well-prepared pittsburgh team Uh, a pittsburgh team that will will I I don't think they needed an entire week to put in a plan To deal with will levis. So Look, this is the same type of knowledge. Uh, sorry This is the same type of reasoning that I used the bet against broc protee last year and that didn't really turn out well um I'm still going to go with that type of reasoning here. Uh, definitely like, uh Piss off minus two and a half here on the thursday night game Well, I think it also goes back to like your core philosophy that big plays are hard to predict and The big plays will levis hit last week But that's not always going to be the expectation going forward And like you look at those plays like If that cornerback doesn't slip on the first long deandre hopkins touchdown It might be a pick because he kind of just lost it up there Like there's a lot of randomness in that and well will levis like we'll take his chances So like he'll have more big plays this year if he keeps starting but like Should that now be the baseline expectation that the will levis we saw on sunday will be what we see going forward and I agree to you probably not Like he's still a downgrade from ryan taniel because taniel has been pretty efficient Uh as an nfl starter even even recently he's been pretty efficient. So right like big plays are hard to predict He got a lot of them. Um people just saw the stealers flop last week. So like it's kind of a spot where Like it just kind of aligns where a lot of the core principles for you are all in play in one game Yes, for sure. Um, I I I don't actually think ryan taniel is that good That was part of my reason for fading tennessee before and and I feel like there's a significant downgrade hitman was talking on He's a pro better. He was talking on forward progress podcast last week He thinks tennessee's offense is the worst in the nfl with will levis Uh, you know that that didn't happen last week And I don't know if they're the worst because there's some competition down there Yeah, but I I think you don't really get off what what we thought will levis was And yeah, we'll see how this plays out. I mean, this is what makes sports interesting. I think it's good I don't know. I think it's great that he has such a great game last week Because I think it's I think it's providing a lot of value this week. I really like Pittsburgh I also think it's great. He played well last week because I had the titans money line Because I think that I thought the quarterback on the other side is also pretty bad so Showed value in the tennessee side of things wound up taking it there So hats off to you will levis, but we're not expecting the exact thing to happen this week I don't know. I'm kind of surprised that ridder Uh Got benched though. I thought he was doing better than he was at kind of the midpoint of the season And uh, yeah, I don't know. I'm kind of surprised. I mean, what what there was like a concussion and then Maybe it was concussion shash, but he got cleared. Yeah And now he's cleared and now he's benched which I don't know. I mean, I'm not a fan of desmond ridder and I'm not sure what his upside is but We kind of know more That you know taylor heinecky's doesn't have that upside we've we've kind of had enough data to see no ceiling at all I think that what they're doing is the floor play like the floor on heinecky is higher because he doesn't do as much like He hasn't ever has as many mistakes He's definitely higher because he's athletic. He has a bigger arm. Heinecky's arm is a noodle like it's awful um But so like they're going for the floor which I typically disagree with uh, but like If you look at last year when marcus mariotta was starting and I know that I have a blind spot for marcus mariotta I know I know I know believe me But like they they were efficient when they threw the ball in early downs last year They have not been that this year adjusting for opponent They're a negative 0.03 passing net expected points per drop back on early downs And that's the league average is 0.08. So they've been like terrible in that regard And that accounts for sacks accounts for fumbles. He had a lot of those so I don't know I think with that personnel They should be better on early downs when they throw But like they're not so I don't know I I guess I like I liked ruder coming out of college I just have not seen anything in the nfl yet to convince me. He's good I mean, I didn't like ruder coming out of college But I think you have to look at it in terms of you're playing these two guys Which one has the higher chance of becoming a solid nfl starter? It's not heinecky. That's for sure that that is very true Like what are you doing? I think they're thinking about who can win me a game on sunday and If you're thinking short term, which is a flawed mentality a lot of times in the nfl If you think in short term heinecky probably does lift your win probability for one game If you're thinking about you know long term who can like be has higher odds because heinecky's odds of becoming a superstar to Vi will start or a zero And winners are not zero So but it's bad and with ruder. I think it's like 10 Right. Yeah 10 versus zero favors winner for sure. Yeah, if you're Arthur Smith I guess I can see this if you're two and six, but you're four and four I think that's actually the reason they're they're making the shift is because they're in contention in a bad nsc south With it where they're going with the floor option And taking advantage of the fact they've got a good running game They've got some decent pieces and I think they want their quarterback to kind of stop Losing them games of key fumbles towards a goal line. Like it's kind of like a I don't know Those fumbles are so random. They are they very much. I'm not saying that it's a good decision. I'm saying why Try to fumble on the goal on like that again, right? Like yeah It's I don't know. I I think that like If you're thinking long term, which we would think people should The ridder's a better option But like if you're telling me I need to win one game I would probably pick heinecky too I just don't know if that's the way you should think about things running an nfl team where it's not all about next week I think I would make an argument that you're not necessary Maybe you're giving yourself a little bit of an edge with heinecky in the short term I just don't think it's a lot I don't think it is either. I think they're both bad honestly, but I think arthur smith is just it's just trying to give Annie agar more content for next week Just trying to give her just you know, I don't think she needs it Think no The crazier The the crazier people are in the nfl the funnier it is Like you see do you see the stuff about partially why mcdaniel's got fired? Oh, that was I think they talked about the fortune cookie No, the fact that he dressed up as mark davis for halloween. That was a joke. I think was it a joke I think that was an athletic Was it really athletic? I thought they clipped it. I thought they clipped something out of the athletic, but oh, I thought that it was a spoof Um, I might be wrong in that though. I did not I did not thoroughly research it. So we should probably cut this section of the pod Well, we're not people talked about that earlier too. Um, but honestly, I wish it were true Uh, the the joke version was that he dressed up as mark davis and the mark davis Gave him a fortune cookie that said you're fired champ or something like that. Um, I wish that were true I don't think it is but I wish it was that has to be true, man That has too good to not be true What's will it into existence if it didn't happen will it next raiders coach? Remember that may be Make it happen, buddy. Make it happen. Yeah hot shot. It was your fired hot shot. That's what it was Make it happen hot shot. All right. That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread But as you mentioned, you've got your member numbers over at the power rank people If you want to find that your newsletter your podcast, where can they find all of that? Yeah, check it out at thepowerrank.com If you like what you heard on the show, I would suggest signing up for the free email newsletter You get more of my bets during the week you get five nugget saturday Which is my curated list of sports betting tips and and analytics Uh, and then Yeah, see what you think there and if you want if you do want all my best stuff That is a paid service, but uh, check out the free stuff first Alrighty find at thepowerrank.com find ed's podcast the football analytics show wherever you get your podcast You can find me on twitter at jim sonnis You can also find me on threads at jim dot sonnis and follow fando research on twitter at fando research Follow the podcast covering the spread wherever you get your podcast Check us out on fando youtube page and fandal tv plus if you want some thoughts on tonight's game the thursday night game Check out prime time tom with tom vecchio on this podcast feed and on fandal tv plus Good luck to all of you with your bets for tonight. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow for some player props across week nine This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network