 We're back, we're live, we're here with Midnight in Brussels, actually a special edition of Midnight in Brussels. Gauri Kondekar, our correspondent in Brussels, joins us. It's what is at 11 o'clock at night on a given Monday. She is with Global Relations Forum, that's her think tank in Brussels. Welcome again back to the show, Gauri. Thanks so much, G. It's always a pleasure. It's great to have you on the show. Keep us current. Teach us about Europe. We need to know more about Europe. Hawaii is so far away and it's out of sight, out of mind, but we need to know about it. So there are, what are we calling this show, the news in Europe, one headline after another. Been pretty active lately, eh? Yes, for all the wrong reasons actually, but yes, I have to say events on the 15th and 16th and then again, they've just not stopped. It's been chaos a bit. Well, let's unpack that. So the thing that comes to mind is Bastille Day in Nice. What happened? And you know, what do you make of it? Almost everybody knows it was Bastille Day celebrations in Nice on the sea front and there's an area, it's the walk called the Promenade des Anglais. So we'll come to that about his character later, but he drove a pickup truck, one of the biggest pickup trucks there are, rammed it into people and moored around 200 people or more, killing 84 for now because there are some people who are still critical and injuring more than 200 and it was really the most shocking incidents because it unveiled quite a few new tactics, but also the people that have been killed on such a happy day. Yeah, something like a competition. Each one of these guys wants to kill more than the previous guy, make himself famous. Yes, I thought Mohammed Bouley, who was the terrorist, he was known by the police for petty crimes, but he wasn't a known terrorist and it is now believed that he got radicalized very quickly. He was a divorced single person who had said that he was not very religious. He used to never go to the mosque, he was a salsa dancer, bodybuilder, he used to drink. So his religious intonations are really not clear, but he was self-radicalized, it seems. And I think one of the main characteristics we notice is that it's a loss of purpose and a will to do, to go from zero to hero in a way and so they pick up this ideology, they assign themselves to it and they create carnage by which they feel they will be remembered in some way. Yeah, well the truck is a new strategy, isn't it? And it strikes me that we're going to see more trucks, don't you think? I mean ISIS had sent out this warning a few or a call, let's say, a couple of weeks ago, saying that fill petrol in your vehicles and go and mow down people. And it's really scary, I mean I've seen videos of the NIS attack, the aftermath, people lying on the ground and it's so scary, I mean we live in Europe but you know when attacks happen thousands of kilometers away, or miles away, you don't really feel the impact but when you see the videos you know it's real, you know. And it just drives home that fact, you never know who's going to pick up which vehicle. And any means are possible of mass killing actually. Yeah, well you know what really I wanted to ask you, so you're quite a distance from NIS and yet it's still Europe. Yes. And it's very interesting, you're connected with the south of France, so how do people feel about this one? Is this getting to be business as usual or are people more excited than they were before? Actually I was in NIS last year for a friend's wedding. I have a friend who lives in Monaco and NIS, I mean they're really close by. And she was in NIS at that time. And it's really a shocker because NIS is, well, quite a velocity, it caters to the rich and famous mainly and of course those seeking vacationing spots in Europe. Lying on the French Riviera it has a laid back attitude. And so this has been really something that's more than a shocker for Europe. It's been more than a wake up call in a way. And people I think they don't know how to deal with it because they've had such a laid back attitude to life itself. I'm one country, it's all countries. Your country could be next, you know, it could happen in your city. We just got through it. You just had yours. Maybe you'll have a moment of respite before you have another one. But it certainly seems this is an ongoing thing. On the other hand, this was special, this was iconic. It was Bastille Day. Bastille Day is really important to the French. And of course the fireworks and all that make it a very sacred holiday for them. And Avenue des Anglais is the sacred place in Nice. It's the center of Nice, it's beautiful, isn't it? Yes. So this was iconically, this was very symbolic, this attack. Of course. And it's the day of French identity and we have liberty of independence, fraternity, equality. But you know, I mean all these values aside, the national day. This was expected in a way but not in Nice, you know. The political capital of course is Paris. But Nice is all the more shocking because it was not on the radar, I think. Yeah, well that's the scary part. Any place, any time, anyhow. So, you know, looking at it now, you really wonder what's going to happen. The French got pretty angry politically and they said, Alain said they were going to send 10,000 troops into the Middle East, try to deal with ISIS there. They beefed up security around the country. Does this mean a degradation of civil rights? Does it mean a move to a conservative and oppressive government? Well, the government itself is in trouble. It's not been very effective at preventing terrorism. And this is what Nicolas Sarkozy, the former president and also leader of the opposition has accused the government of doing. Francois Hollande, the French president, enjoys a really limited popularity amongst the population. It's at the lowest of any president, any French president. So that is quite something. Then you have the growth of the far-right movement under Marine Le Pen. She's a very controversial figure. She's been booked under also racism, intolerance, antisemitism. So, politically, things are not stable in France. Although the government might want to show that they are tackling terrorism to a certain extent at home but also abroad, won't help much until they consolidate what is to be done at home itself first because the first response needs to be domestic. Because the person, the terrorist was domestic, he never even went to Syria. He's not been using the traditional radicalization platforms. So domestic is really a bit of more soul-searching that needs to be done by the French. Yeah, they've got to do something. I think in the absence of some action, they'll just continue to have these attacks all of Europe will. And it seems to define at least a part of Europe's future now to have to deal with this. But let's move to another topic, okay? I guess we should talk about the coup in Turkey. That was remarkable. What happened there? Well, suddenly everybody was dealing with the aftermath of news and then news about Turkey emerged. I think it was the shortest coup possible. But we literally saw on Twitter the news erupting of coup being declared by the armed personnel in Turkey. The military had issued a message on TV declaring that it had taken over the country and then we saw tanks in both Ankara and Istanbul, jets flying over, shutting off the TV stations. And then immediately, a few hours later, we saw Erdogan, the Turkish president, on FaceTime speaking with an independent news channel, which is ironic because there have been quite a few jokes on that because he's been suppressing them for so long and he used their medium. He used an independent news channel. I think it was CNN Turkey and he was speaking with them on FaceTime and he called out to the public to come on the streets via that call. Surprisingly, people came, people mobilized very quickly, which is something I doubt. How did they come out so quickly in a way and how did they have access all to the televisions and all the social media were closed so the word spread out rapidly. And the people came out, they defeated the army. Mind you, it was the second largest army in NATO. So a handful of people defeated them and then Erdogan came there the next morning and said, well, it's over. The coup has been suppressed. But for me, I think that this coup was really staged. Staged by Erdogan himself and I'll give you a few reasons. The coup lasted just six hours in a way, six to seven hours maximum. There were really few, just a few deaths rather than a lot of bloodshed, which is not normally East of Europe. A coup is really bloody East of Europe. And here I would count Turkey East of Europe. The other thing is... Well, they lost 250 people were killed, yeah? Yes, no. But early reports were 100. And then afterwards there was an execution as well. But it's still quite limited. I mean, if you see the coup in Thailand or also in Pakistan, there are thousands dead. Yes, yes, yes. But then Erdogan's plane... So he was coming to Ankara and there were two F-16s which had him in view but didn't fire at him. And only half the military or part of the military had staged the coup apparently, which would never happen in any military. There's a line of control and command. And unless the entire military is on board in a country like Turkey, they would not take the chances. But, you know, Erdogan has important discussions coming up with Israel and with Russia. Are you suggesting that maybe Erdogan set up the coup for his own reasons? What were those reasons have been? That's my thinking. I still have this conspiracy theory in mind. But for a few reasons, I mean, it gives him an excuse to do what he's doing now, which is establishing himself as the only person in power. Ah, moving to the right. Taking greater control of the country. Exactly. History personal, but also 3,000 judges. So there was a joke I read this morning about the economist with a person, a military man sitting in prison with another guy and he's saying, oh, this is not fair, I need a human rights lawyer. And the other person is, well, you came to the right place. At least there's some humor there. He always wanted to make the president's position stronger than the prime minister because earlier he was prime minister. Now he wants to transfer it into a presidential system. And second, I mean, other reasons are also because it strengthens his own position vis-a-vis the EU, vis-a-vis Russia, vis-a-vis Israel because he has negotiations and he portrays himself as the only man they need to speak to. He's the prime suppressor coup in the second largest army in NATO. It makes him stronger at a time when he needs to be strong. He's got a lot of challenges right now, right across the border from Syria. I would say it's just foreign policy posturing in a way. But, um, but yeah, I mean, with him you never know. Yeah. Yeah, he's really a sweet generous. Let's take a short break, Kauri, and then we come back. I'd like to talk about the fallout from Brexit. This is really full of headlines. I'd like to talk about the Asia-Europe meeting in Mongolia. And if we have time, I'd like to talk about, you know, whether Europe cares about the Hague's decision over the South China Sea. We'll be right back. Hi, my name is Aaron Wills. You are watching ThinkTechHawaii.com. I am the host of the show Rehabilitation Coming Soon. You can catch us live on ThinkTechHawaii.com at 11 a.m. on Tuesdays. I will see you there. Hello, I'm Marianne Sasaki. Welcome to ThinkTechHawaii, where some of the most interesting conversations in Honolulu go on. I have a show on Wednesdays from one to two called Life in the Law, where we discuss legal issues, politics, governmental topics, and a whole host of issues. I hope you'll join me. Hello, I'm Patrick Bratton. I'm the host of Global Connections. I'm also a professor at Hawaii Pacific University, and my show, and some of the other things that we do, is show soft the collaboration that we have between ThinkTechHawaii and Hawaii Pacific University. So I look forward to seeing you and talking with you about a lot of issues dealing with Hawaii, the United States, and the world. Thank you very much. Welcome to ThinkTechHawaii.com. This is Johnson Choi, your host. The topic is Asian Reveal. We do it on a monthly basis on Thursday at 11 o'clock. Be sure to check the schedule. See you. We're back live with Gary Kondekar. She joins us by Skype from Brussels. We call this Midnight in Brussels, with us a little earlier than that. We're talking about the news in Europe, one headline after another. Okay, moving on to, let's see, what do we got? The Hague. The Hague has made a ruling about the South China Sea and ruled in favor of the Philippines, which I think in most people's view was the right thing, that China has no legitimate claim to building Scarborough Island and otherwise taking control of that area. Now, this happened in Europe. This decision was made in Europe. What kind of reaction do we see in Europe? None. China is too politically all to import and economically as well for Europe at the moment. So none. There are a few reasons for that. Actually, it's the permanent arbitration court, which has nothing to do with the UN. It's a member's court, actually. And China has been calling this statement void, the ruling void, and it says that it does not accept it. Now, you know, China is Europe's second largest partner after the US and trade figures are quite close. Investment-wise as well, Europe is looking for investment from China for obvious reasons. China's one belt, one road will really benefit Europe. Yeah, so people are not likely to take action against China about it. In fact, I would say the same process that you described in Europe is happening in the US. You know, it's somebody else's backyard, not mine. And I think the only way to stop the Chinese on this move, this taking of territory essentially, is force. But nobody is willing to even suggest that. No, but also who is going to implement the decision? There's nobody. There's no global NATO. There's no Southeast Asian Army. So there's nobody who's going to implement that decision at all, except for putting pressure on China. And China doesn't really care about pressure. And the Europeans won't even try. Yeah, and the stakes are high for China, because it wants control of an area where three trillion tons of trade move every year, whereas strategically, from a military point of view, this is a critical piece of real estate. And because this is a process they haven't done before, but which now they can do again with impunity. You'll see more of this, Gary. I guarantee it. Yes. You know, what's surprising is that some countries in Asia themselves are not supporting this. And they've opposed Philippines' decision to appeal to the court in the first place. So the countries like Malaysia as well, India, and Cambodia, which is, of course, curry-flavored by China. But I mean, most of these countries oppose it because they have their own crisis. For example, India and Pakistan over Kashmir, yes? And what the court does is give a fait accompli, which is a decision that is to be, you know, a ready-made decision. You cannot appeal that decision. So there are some countries that don't want to already acknowledge the ruling in Asia itself. Even though they might benefit from it. But this is the paradox of international politics. It is. One thing is clear, though. The boundaries are changing. The area is changing. The power structure is changing. And from an international point of view, it seems like China is making headway every time you look. Not only politically, militarily, and economically. This is just a geoeconomic policy of Europe at the moment. I think it's a misguided policy because peace in the South China Sea is extremely vital because Europe has trade with South Korea and Japan. So it's not only trade with China that comes. So Europe has all the more reasons. It's also trade with Southeast Asia that is dependent on this sea. So I think geoeconomics aside, I think geopolitical considerations should also be born into mind. A more united Europe is required. But of course, after Brexit, that becomes all the more difficult. Yeah, well that takes us to our next subject. Let's take a moment and talk about Brexit. Theresa May, what do you think of her position? You're going to let it happen the way they voted. She's not looking for any re-vote or reconsideration. She's going to try to make the best of a bad vote. Is that going to work? Well, Theresa May has been surprised by her or taken aback by her, not positively because they thought she would, since she was close to Cameron and she had campaigned for the remain vote to remain in the EU. They thought she would somehow work it in a way that UK stays in the EU, but she's not done that. And there are two surprising revelations because first of all, she's created a Brexit minister and they've set a date for Brexit to happen, which is the 1st of January 2019. By that date, the UK will be out of the EU. The second thing is she made Boris Johnson, so I think everybody knows a bit about Boris Johnson. Now he was the mayor of London, the former mayor, and he campaigned quite strongly for Brexit. And he was also a good friend of David Cameron, a former prime minister, and he stabbed him in the back. Which is, he was a quite close friend. And she made Boris Johnson, who's quite a controversial figure now in Europe, she made him the foreign minister. And as foreign minister, he has a number of meetings and he's in Brussels today, actually. So these have been the two moves. Theresa May has taken a hard line on immigration as well so about the people who would, Europeans that are already in the UK, but also Europeans who would come between now and the Brexit date. So she's been quite tough on immigration. She's been very adamant on, or she seems very adamant on Brexit, so there's no second thought there. I think she wants to appease the people in view of the next elections. So that is her personal gains, medium-term strategy. Well, economically, this is going to hurt Britain and it's going to hurt the EU, too. But what role does the US have? Can the US help soften the effect of Brexit on Britain? Well, the UK is going to bear the brunt of it. It's already going through quite a difficult time economically. Brexit has wiped out billions of the stock exchange of property prices. The euro is at its lowest, it's standing at 120 per pound. If I could travel to Europe, I should come to Europe immediately. Yes, you should actually go to the UK because it's cheaper and then come to Brussels. But how necessarily lost its value? I don't think there's anything the US could do at this point. President Obama himself was in London speaking to the public. I don't think you could do anything more. In terms of what to do after Brexit, I think the US will have to strike its own special relationship with the EU itself. And I think Germany will be taking the role of special partner to the US in the EU. Now, taking over from the UK of course, and the UK-US relationship will of course be something a bit separate, but I think the UK will lose its value. Yeah, really interesting. The implications are huge. They're still unfolding. We don't know yet. The next few months or a year we'll see more, what two years, whatever it takes. And at the end of the day, it's not going to be a zero sum game. At the end of the day, there will be big winners and big losers and maybe more losers than winners. Yes, I agree with you. One other point if we could get to a quick discussion of what happened in Mongolia. Was that every several years there's a meeting between Europe and Asia. This time it took place in Mongolia just a few days ago. What happened? Why? What was the reason? What was the upshot? An intergovernmental platform called ASEM, the Asia-Europe meeting. This was the 20th anniversary of ASEM and they were celebrating it with a summit. It's a biennial summit. It's an event which brought together around 34 leaders from Asia and Europe. The total membership of ASEM quickly is 53, but 34 members had come to Mongolia and it was already Mongolia's largest international event in its contemporary history. So it was quite a big deal for Mongolia. Now ASEM has been working over the years to try and bring Asia and Europe closer. It's a bit like APEC for the US, but not quite. The thing about ASEM is now today it's more divided than ever. Asia is more divided and Europe is more divided and that's my new piece actually what I've written about ASEM. Already ASEM lacks visibility and it does not have many tangible outputs, but today's geopolitical situation with the crisis Europe has faced and Brexit of course and the far-right movements that are gaining space in Europe but also what's happening in Asia with India and Pakistan, China but also the other fights between China and Japan, Japan, South Korea and this has all created so many divisions within ASEM that it's unprecedented in a way. So as a forum which does not have a secretariat which does not have many tangible outputs it's already a difficult task. So going into its third decade I think ASEM has many challenges to face. Garry, it all sounds like the world as we see it evolving these days is evolving into greater fragmentation here, there and really everywhere and wait till you see the Republican National Convention which is happening today, tomorrow you'll see. Now that will be a study in fragmentation too. Some people say it's going to implode the Republican Party. I'm sure Europe will be watching. But I would like to see your piece. When you finish writing your piece on fragmentation I would appreciate if you'd send it to me. If you don't mind I'll send it around too. Fantastic, I'll do that. Thank you very much, it's very grateful. Thank you Garry. Garry Kandakar, Global Relations Forum turning us by Skype as she does every few weeks on Midnight in Brussels. Today we're talking about the news in Europe. The headlines are one headline after another. We'll be back with more headlines next time. Thank you so much Garry. Thank you Jay. Hello.