 We may be a day late due to the schedule change with the Northern Trust things being pushed back due to the hurricane But we are hearing good spirits because Tony Finaw is a winner We got the BMW championship coming up. It is a no-cut event So we are ready to talk some PGA DFS and get you set for tea times tomorrow morning Welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Numberfire that's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com joined here as always by Brandon Gadoula He is the managing editor of numberfire.com and Brandon. I feel like We're responsible for the Tony Finaw win because we were talking about win juice on the podcast last week we were joking on Twitter about how Tony Finaw could endorse Windows win juice and He apparently had win juice last week and he wins John Rom who is in my my my best line-up I'm just doing really well for all of Saturday Sunday when there was no competition early Monday So I was devastated to lose some money there, but it's Tony Finaw. It's like kind of helps Finaw at the win juice How are you doing today? I? Mean good. I love we love Tony Finaw on this podcast. We were talking about the The win juice as you alluded to already and I don't think is actually an illusion I think it's much more than an illusion. So I shouldn't use that word, but It's it's it's nice to see because I'm just a big believer of the fact that it's extremely hard to win a golf tournament and That saying someone doesn't have it whenever they're consistently finishing top 10 and top 5 is just it's silly and so To see Tony got there and get it done And I don't want to hear anyone say that John Rom choked it away or that cam Smith choked it away Tony Finaw was great. He is great and it's just it's nice to see The variants fall his way for once past month has been devastating for he can't win Twitter between Xander getting a gold medal Tony Finaw winning well week at the Northern Trust Yeah, but people could I mean with Xander it's it was the Olympics So it's a small field not the most difficult field for Tony Finaw wasn't technically a full field So if we had about, you know, 30 more Bottom tier PGA golfers that would make this a much more impressive when it doesn't matter The John Rom cam Smith all you know, all these guys were at the top of their games doesn't matter If you scrubs if you want is more Danny McCarthy, and then we then we can count as a win for Tony Finaw Then McCarthy out here catching some some strays, but we we support Danny McCarthy on this podcast, but like you know Even even John Rom said if you don't like Tony Finaw or something wrong with you, so I agree I agree with John Rom wholeheartedly here. So Tony Finaw victorious Northern Trust We move now to the BMW championship the second round of the FedEx Cup playoffs. It is at a brand new course It is a caves Valley golf club depressingly not in a cave Kind of was hoping for that had some outsider vibes there, you know, Ben Mendelson that's shown HBO But you know, whatever it's fine. We can live with it I know you're super aware of what that is, but caves Valley golf club CVGC for those of us in the know 7,542 yards and a par 72 there are 69 golfers in the field very nice. Yeah, I see you I see you 69 golfers in the field Patrick read out once again So none of him this week, but the rest of the field is still there and once again the top 30 golfers advance to next week's championship and Positioning does matter a lot. So it's not just who will crack into that top 70 But everyone has motivation here because you can get a 10 stroke advantage this week That'll help you win as Brandon is want to remind us It does help to be to have a nice little advantage for next week So a lot of motivation for this week. This is the first time they played this course on the PGA tour Brandon What stands out to you when digging into the layout of this course? Yeah, I mean, I did my best That's really all you can ever try to do whenever we have a course with really no there won't even like, you know cornfairy events or anything I could really dig back into so it's more of a taking taking kind of a Like an overview like a flyover Estimation and usually whenever I find a course or whenever we reach a course where there's a whole lot I just kind of go all All over with the stats and try to get everything just so that I kind of have my bases covered but You already mentioned the length here One thing that stood out to me is the average green size is about 5200 square feet Which is smaller than average on the PGA tour the average Just over 6,000 generally so not substantially different, but these greens do look a little bit You know some of those like longer angular greens things like that the oblong shapes and honestly Seems like there are a lot of a lot of spots where having distance off the tee can help But also spots where you need to kind of hit fairways So again, it's just kind of an assumption and we might find out that the longer hitters Just end up having a huge advantage because they can carry things and they just carry things all four rounds But it could be that you know, it's enough just to hit fairways and stay in place So, you know, we don't have anything to go off of but they did lengthen this course recently It was a Tom Fosio design back in like I think 91 and then they added a bunch of length to it this past year Just to get it up to PGA towards standards And going back to the green size I think that is just a main reason to keep stroke-skinned Approach as our number one stat. I don't really see any reason to go away from that and then again for driving Tight-ish fairways from what I can tell but also where distance matters So I'm gonna go stroke-skinned off the tee so you just need to do something positively With driver, especially playing against these elite golfers You know chipping might be vital given like how the how small the greens are but We just saw Liberty National and they had even smaller greens about 4,650 square feet on average so Smaller than what we get this week and we saw golfers go low. So, I mean, it's not a guarantee, but basically what I'm getting at is Stroke-skinned approach and stroke-skinned off the tee should be our key stats And then for something that might kind of pan out it might not but looking at a hole by hole I have proximity from 200 plus yards on my list, which is not the kind of thing that I look at anymore Just because I don't know The the course difficulty the conditions for for a lot of these they're unadjusted, but there are a lot of long par 3s Ranging in this distance. I think that could help and then possibly for the forced layups for the shorter hitters They're gonna have longer approach shots. So maybe like longer approach is 175 plus 200 plus things like that Could be something could be an angle but for for honest, honestly, I'm going Primarily for ball striking so off the tee and approach and then putting conversion specifically on bent grass if you have that I think looking at the distance of this course has led a lot of people to kind of lean into some heavy hitters for this week Which makes sense, you know, it's it is a long course like you mentioned and it seems like the people who have played there Do you think that distance will be advantageous when I look at like the odds? It seems like It's possible. There has been I don't want to say an overreaction But it's possible that is being baked into a lot what we're seeing right now So Specifically Abraham answer seems like potentially a bit under value and I think that while I do want to value distance Do you want to value guys who can take advantage? I also Don't think this is a spot where I want to cross off guys who are not Bryson, etc. So like I think for me I think that going with overall off the tee play Valuing just being a good driver whether it be via distance or other stuff I think that is the right way to play things this week. So I have the same thing there Stroke scene off the tee is being a key stat this week because I don't want to cross off guys like answer We're just tremendous golfers Because they may not bomb it. I do think that there's an advantage being long And if you can't gain strokes because you're not long enough That's definitely a negative But I think that the way that you're viewing things where we go with off the tee over distance by itself I think that is the correct way to play things for this week Yeah, I mean And again a lot of stroke scan off the tee is actually explained by distance So that's that's part of it. That's why I feel like I don't have to go specifically with distance, but You know, you can't really go that wrong Targeting the best ball strikers possible now for the most part the best ball strikers on tour are the higher salary golfers on Fandle But you know every now and then you get some golfers in the value range who have elite ball striking That's generally what we spend an hour every week talking about is the better ball strikers at a value salary on the check And we'll be doing that again in the current form section, of course No course history to discuss will talk some current form in just one second at first Hey sports fans Fandle is offering an exclusive promotion for new sports book users join Fandle sports book today And make your first bet if you lose will give you a refund up to $1,000 in site credit within 72 hours your first bet after depositing will qualify if you may multiple selections on one bet slip It'll be the first selection you made head over to Fandle sports book today and place your first bet must be 21 plus and present Colorado, Iowa Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia or West Virginia new users only Max bonus $1,000 site credit see full terms at sportsbook dot Fandle calm gambling problem Call 1 800 gambler in Colorado one hundred five two two forty seven hundred in Iowa 100 bets off in Indiana one hundred nine with it for confidential help in Michigan one hundred two seven oh seven one one seven in Tennessee call the red line at 1-800-889-9789 or in West Virginia 1-800-gambler net let's dive into current form by talking about the headliner for this event the Massive massive massive massive massive favor for this one and the highest salary golfer on Fandle that is John Rom because Brandon We can't bury the lead. We can't stick ROM somewhere else I feel like we kind of got to talk about him here because a lot of our decisions will branch off of how we view ROMs talking about Rom and how we're handling him this week Yeah, I mean Jim threw a lot of A lot of heavies on how favored John Rom is and he's plus 650 to win on Fandle sportsbook next up is JT aka Justin Thomas At 18 to one so it is a Cavernous gap, but as we talked about last week appropriate for a cave place Yeah, that must have been in the back of my mind So we have that huge gap in odds and honestly in my win simulations ROM is heavily favored and I'll talk about why in just one second, but you know the reason that I think it's worth talking about here at the top is because he's Mega popular like mega heavy to to win But his salary on Fandle was 12,000 and then like next up is Zander Shafley at 11 7 Justin Thomas aka JT At 11 6 so like we don't see that and we talked about it last week, but I think it's important that We kind of establish why it's it's relevant to talk about John Rom on Fandle this week because of the salary not being quite so large but because the the form is So good according to data golf ROM in his past 20 rounds He's gained 4.02 True strokes gained per round which is their adjusted strokes so 4.02 That's the basically we look at that as like baseline professional golfer He's gonna beat them by four strokes based on how he's been playing over his past 20 rounds next up Is Harris English at 2.42 and only two other golfers Cam Smith and Louis Weasley's and are above two So ROM has basically been two shots per round better than virtually everyone else lately And that includes like I'm looking at the guys playing at their high end right now Like who's playing at their 20-round elite peak? That's why Harris English Camp Smith are up there not guys with greater long-term form It's like who's really hot right now These guys and ROM is so much hotter than they are it's like insane ROM should probably have like 30 wins this season Yeah, I don't know how he doesn't actually have more obviously the the memorial He should have should have won but had to withdraw but I think this just really comes down to game theory Rom was thirty eight point five percent rostered on Fando last week making him the only golfer above thirty percent We're cutting the field down a lot that should creep up to about forty five percent. I don't think there's any reason to feel worse about John Rom This week than we did last week So we're looking at maybe forty five fifty percent roster rate for John Rom Talk to me about your your view on him for cash games and then also tournaments I don't know how you don't use him in a cash game. I guess is the way that I would think about it because like Who else are you putting in there? Yeah cash? I made that mistake last week. Yeah Because now you're only a game up in the bobble hat with two weeks left. Yeah, we had to head Season-long competition you're you're only one up and I gave you two weeks off to try to try to make up ground To give my to give myself less leeway and yet here we are Well, I said we didn't have to do that, but I know but I was trying to be a gentleman because I was not here Yes, yes me. Hey, do you know what you remember when you alluded to the 10-shot lead? Do would you like to explain why you called that out? Nope? John Rom $12,000 I think that just it's kind of comes down what you said where the gap between his salary in the field is not big enough So I would say John Rom a lot for cash games. I would say I would like to get to 60 to 70 ish percent John Rom for tournaments. I think that's appropriate and then I think it does help too that like it's a no-cut event. We still want to prioritize Golfers who are gonna implode but it does help to have a full four rounds for each golfer So I would say go Rom and cash 60 to 70 percent exposure for tournaments and go from there Are you on the same page? Yeah, especially for cash games I think you lock it in because we're looking at yeah look golf is inherently volatile, but right now ROMs baseline is so high and yeah, I'm looking at 20 rounds here, but I should add those pulled up but ROM in my Database so this adjusts for field strength and recency over the past year. I'm said a 2.5 5 next up One same as Louie and then speeds at a 1.75 again this rate waits for recency So that's a big part of it But even with that he's like 0.7 shots better than the next best guy In the world so you're guaranteeing yourself virtually like if you say everyone plays their baseline That's what 2.8 shots over four rounds over Xander like that's gonna add up And really what you're what you're asking for With ROM to disappoint is like yes outlier rounds, but at this point like huge outlier rounds to put him like 20th in this field which seems Like yeah, it can happen in the simulations. I run he finishes like 20th sometimes, but That's a very very low probability that he's just irrelevant. So I think that like We just kind of have to use him like I have him above 50% to top 10 like Subsurd and like we don't care about floor like floor is stupid for daily fantasy It's how you lose a lot of money, but it's nice to have that reassurance that you know The ceiling is insane and he comes with a good floor as well. So yeah, ROM tremendous option Shockingly who could have predicted that Let's move now to Cam Smith because last week I got very lucky I was at the gym in the morning saw that Patrick Yeah, I lift bro. I lift I was working out Getting swallowed 645 and see Patrick Reed's Withdrawn so I got to cam Smith out of panic mostly and it worked out I'd you know probably wouldn't have gotten there either way So thanks patty for being a generous generous man and helped me out there But Smith is a guy should have been on before that. He ranks fifth in data golf's true strokes gain over the past six months He's trailing ROM who? Spieth more cow it and West Hazen of course Louie's up there Smith's ball striking is not great, but he's also not a negative there and cam Smith the short game obviously tremendous Plus Smith did gain 8.4 an approach at the Northern Trust and 4.6 of the travelers when he does that He has winning upside and he's done it twice in the past three measured events So we shouldn't assume that he's gonna gain four strokes on approach But it's within his range of outcomes when that does happen the dude is an absurd He's 10 9 this week. That's that's higher than the 10k he was at last week But it seems like it's worth it. So how are you viewing Cameron Smith here relative to his now? peers in this upper salary tier Yes, I mean I mentioned Smith in that past 20 round Discussion, but he's fifth over the past year when I when I account for recency too So I mean it's been he's been trending up like quickly And in a way that is really really intriguing to Was just kind of what we're seeing from him So I have always loved cam Smith because he has a good hat game Now he's got the The hair and the mustache going too But one thing that really stands out to me is just kind of like he's not always gonna lose distance now He's kind of gained some distance if you go round by round it kind of you know has some distance gained in there So that is a huge plus. We know the short game is about as good as anyone's So for me, I think Smith makes a ton of sense. He's not someone I'm going to straight up prioritize But I I wouldn't like I wouldn't talk to anyone out of cam Smith this week Right, like if I think that in that range would be easy to like look at Cameron Smith relative to like Rory Rory's 10 a a little bit lower than Cameron Smith like in general like you see those names like well What's going on here? He's by Fina. He's by Bryce. He's by DJ like he's in a really good tier But despite that fact, you don't cross them off this week I think that that's kind of what I'm trying to say is like even though his salary is high and he's by great people He should be he deserves to be there for sure. So not like you said not a priority, but not a guy I'm avoiding there either. Let's move down to the mid-range talk about Harry English $9,700 old Harry back here on the podcast and 97 is Non-negligible and it's not a course where guys of English's mold tend to you know We're not like seeking out dudes who are not super long of a team But his form is just really good and especially recently. What are you seeing with old Harry English here at $9,700? Yeah, I mean we've been talking about him for a long time He always seems to rate out well in my wind simulation model the form is really strong Obviously, which is why we're talking about him according to data golf He is second in this field and in true strokes gained over the past 20 rounds that I talked about already at a 2.4 2 again from that 4.08 is just nuts, but He is first in putting in that in that span And he's also fourth around the green and strokes gained which is not really the recipe that you want to see The ball striking stats in that sample are still above average But you have to think the short game is going to come back to earth eventually on the other hand though English has been good like for a long time now I think the biggest issue for me is that salary being a little bit too high Whereas I think with camp Smith. It's justified with English. It's a little Kind of a little bit ironic to say I believe in camp Smith Who's just who's bread and butter is the short game, but English is His isn't it's more about ball striking and he's kind of been cold there and has been over performing with the short game I mean Really strong data from him last week at least from a round-by-round scoring standpoint It was consistent 69 68 70 69 for him So, I mean like I don't I don't dislike English. I just would much prefer him at like 90 Even 94 I'd feel a lot better with With that's out at 97. I don't know if I'm gonna be able to get there very often. What about you put some above Corey Connors who is 96 and her dollars. Let's talk about him to and then talk about this mid-range in general because Connors He was very courier show last week Terrible putter early at the Northern Trust and it looked like he was gonna torpedo him So I was pretty worried about that but he did rebound after that He wound up finishing eighth overall Connors lost 3.3 strokes on his short game last week between around the green and on the green combined Lost four points trick 4.6 week before that So it seems like the modest gains he was making on the short game are coming back to earth But the ball striking is so good He gained 6.4 an approach and 4.7 off the tee at the Northern Trust finished 15th at the open where Don't have a lot of room for error there. He's ninety six hundred dollars We know the limitations and it seems like those limitations are a bigger concern for me Then they were about a month ago, but I still think Connors is good for tournaments If you're giving me Connors versus English in this mid-range for tournaments I think that it's Connors by a pretty significant margin where do you sit for Corey Connors given the Rebubbling concerns around his short game Yeah It's basically like the inverse right now with English if you go back and look at Harris English is putting It's like four plus strokes gained in a lot of his events for for Connors. It's hardly ever Been positive over his past like seven But despite that he's been finishing pretty well. It's because his ball striking is just that good And he is on bent grass this week, which is I mean he's especially terrible on Poe, he's not good on bent grass with the potter. I'm not gonna say that that he is but by comparison at least We're getting him on bent grass. So I prefer Connors just because of the ball striking to Harris English right now So I don't think we're gonna have a head-to-head there. I think we're on an in agreement All in on Corey Connors Let's move down to the value range talk about a couple of guys below nine thousand dollars starting off with Garcia last week didn't go so well, but $8,600 Garcia can hang at the longer courses. What are you seeing with him here? Yeah, so Garcia that $8,600 salary not someone I actually like had interest in until I was looking for the golfers in who had let me say Like intriguing recent form not saying these are the guys with the absolute best recent form But I missed the cut last week at the Northern Trust and usually that's like Oh, he's in bad form because he missed the cut and you know, there's a lot more to it than that Now he did do that with negative strokes game t-degree, which is especially not what you want to see But that's rare for him because we know Garcia has elite t-degree Opside and over the past 20 rounds which includes those two rounds entering them like with that missed cut at the Northern Trust Garcia ranks 12th in the field in data golf's true strokes gained t-degree He is 63rd in putting again. There are 69 golfers in the field. So 12th t-degree recently 63rd in putting That's pretty typical for for for Sergio But how good that t-degree and data is is pretty welcoming. Honestly just being top 12 and t-degree and data lately and he honestly has good results before that missed cut he would finish between 17th and 26th and 6th straight events prior to the Northern Trust that does include a 19th at the US Open a 19th at the Open Championship or the British Open if you call it that 26th at the WGC FedEx St. Jude. So kind of like That's pretty solid. He can always put himself out of any tournament, but he also can Ball strike his way to an elite showing especially at the salary of 8600 Again Garcia not someone I had interest in initially to a little bit of a closer look Did he pop up for you on your on your value radar? Reference in the 20 round sample you alluded to because I actually was listening to you for once In that 20 round sample was 4.3 strokes lost putting at the WGC St. Jude and 7.3 at the 3m open that could happen again Like you said, he's always a threat to just absolutely eject on the greens But he also did gain 2.1 at the US Open gained 0.8 in the Miscothe Northern Trust. So I would say Like if we're ranking out probabilities, who is more likely to lose on the greens this week Corey Connors or Sergio Garcia? Yes, I think it's Connors is more likely to lose this week than Garcia I don't think either of them is a great bet to gain but like Let me I don't want that. You're getting an actual answer. Yeah Anyway with Garcia, I think that he works I think the ball striking mean as good as it has been the fact that he is not We can't just assume that he'll lose strokes in the green. We should account for it, but we can't assume So I think that Garcia is at least interesting as a result that you get the number. Yeah So according to fantasy national over their respective past 100 rounds Connors has gained strokes putting in 45% of his rounds That's in Garcia 34% so Connors Definitely I'm more likely. I'll look at just bent grass here Bent grass it evens out a bit 39% for Connors 38% for Garcia. Do you want to do a Corey Connors or Sergio Garcia? Strokes gain putting head-to-head bet. Yeah, let's do that That's our best one ever. That's not it's definitely not I'm into it though I have Sergio right and you have Connors just straight up strokes game putting. Yeah, this is depressing Yeah, more I don't like this. I I would like to be excluded from this narrative Let's talk about Kevin now the the antithesis bizarro worlds are here Garcia because we talked about it last week And now he's trending up and then finished 8th at the Northern Trust. He's $800 this week So at least we're touching on him once again that 8th place finished for now Was his third top 10 in his past four events got they had a couple of runner-ups there He just got there in a pretty wild way He did gain three strokes putting make sense Kevin now very good putter ranks fourth in the field and putting on bank grass But he gained 8.3 strokes around the green that is the second most of his entire career It is his highest mark by 2.3 strokes since 2016 We can't bank on outliers Like that not lost 1.7 off the tee 1.9 an approach at the Northern Trust did strike the ball well at the Wyndham So not all of his good finishes here have been fluky, but last week does seem like it was fluky So given the length of the course this week given people may be odd now because of the good finishes I'm giving them the now way this week. What about you? I Don't know if anyone's ever said that before well, I have now We say it all the time. I know no, I'm uh, I'm an innovator pioneer trailblazer so over the past year Kevin nah over under fourth percentile in adjusted strokes gained off the tee I'll go over because I think you're trying to trick me under beat under third. Okay, sorry I don't trust you if I trusted you more honest that under but I don't so over under 16th percentile and adjusted approach over. Yeah, I'm trying to keep. Oh wow, okay 18th baby big smart boy Big boy. All right. Here we go He is in the seventh combined seventh percentile in this field and adjusted ball striking over the past year just you know, it's That's that's tough, right like that's tough to get get passed. I know we were talking about Cameron Smith as Someone who isn't like a great ball striker necessarily But if I could get my spreadsheet to work here, I would have had a nice Don't want to do a Cameron Smith versus Kevin. Nah ball strokes game ball striking head to head I mean, I will if I get camp Smith Who is in the 50th percentile and strokes gained ball striking over the past year with all my adjustments So like that's the difference. I don't I want to just kind of make that clear And there are some good plays Around 9000 so I don't think we need to force it with nah and I would hope people gravitate there because the good finishes It could happen again. He's a good putter good short game for sure But I'm not gonna bet on it by any means speaking of betting Let's take a look at what bookmakers are saying for this week for the bmw championship John Rom again comically large favorite of annual sportsbook He is plus 650 nobody else shorter than 18 to one That is justin thomas or as you said jt again, you're an innovator too trailblazer calling justin thomas jt got color more cowers more coward Collin more cowa I combined his name is zander zander shuffle a bryce and de shambler 20 to 1 Jordan spieth dust and johnson and tony fiena are 22 to 1 patrick cantley is 23 With brooks kepka louis west hasen and cam smith at 25 to 1 rory mackerel is 28 and Daniel burger rounds of the top group here at 31 to 1 And brandon it seems like when you look at these these numbers it seems like they were heavily Influenced by what happened last week potentially at least to me More so than usual more overreacting if that's a word it is now then what we see So, you know got thomas short fiena super short. We've got a pretty long number on spieth Do you think we should look into buying low on guys who struggled last week? Because to me it looks like It's a pretty at least in the betting market. It's a pretty serious overreaction to what happened at the northern trust Yeah, I think one of my favorite angles this week is to kind of target some golfers who actually missed the cut last week um Because then they wouldn't be playing on monday playing like waiting around playing on monday then traveling You know, I don't know what for example dustin johnson did like if he stayed there I don't I don't know but in theory he could have just gone Down to maryland and has been posted up there dj also So we said there's like no course history here But there was the 2007 palmar cup, which was in a collegiate event dj did play in that I realized that's What 14 years ago? I'm not saying that's relevant, but this apparently is a pretty exclusive Course and so I don't think a whole lot of people have access to it At least playing it once and kind of having that I don't know dj probably doesn't even remember playing it honestly Like he's kind of I don't know if he's ever been serious, but I think he said stuff like that in the past but Like I think that yeah, I do kind of feel like there's an overreaction. I feel like yeah, sure john rom is Looks unbeatable, but the thing is He hasn't like he didn't win last week, right? Like so All of the win odds are just going toward john rom So I think that we can kind of look at last week And honestly one week of data Is not that predictive. It doesn't really help us predict what's going to happen next week Sure, some golfers get on hot streaks. Some golfers are on cold streaks, but like We know to trust the long-term data more often than not So I think there is a lot of leverage so we can gain by Kind of looking at last week and and trying to take advantage of of and that should sound like we don't play john rom But like that's not that's a different conversation Are there any specific guys you're targeting as being like by los you mentioned dj Um, is he kind of the primary target for you as far as getting in on guys who may have Had a rough week last week Um, I mean, he's the one who comes to mind first um But i'm not like against like a lot of Other golfers, uh, I mean garcia missed the cut as I mentioned so That that might be a bit of a bylaw opportunity for us Um, who else here missed the cut who had jason coke rack would be someone um, I have interest in uh, chill hatton. Uh, he didn't never mind But yeah, I mean more callum is the cut started 74 70 so I mean, I think there's credence to that. Yeah, I agree and I think that it's also it's not the the rest narrative but like I mean spieth is pretty terrible over the weekends. I had a rough thursday as well The off the t play is concerning given that he did He did really struggle there, but I think that you know, we still long term know He's a very good golfer So I think that he could potentially be interesting too despite the fact he may not be the best course fit Which golfers odds have shifted since things opened up on Late monday early tuesday Yeah, I think it was actually your early tuesday when I got these but um, I think you actually said you saw bryson Shorten, but adamant 22 and he's now 20. Okay adamant 20. So you must have went from 20 to 22 to 20 again. So Um, just want to make sure I wasn't missing anything, but I see some uh, rory mackler always the probably the the primary one here from 27 to 23 uh, daniel burger 33 to 31 And then kind of a big jump down to golf versus odds have shortened charlie hoffen 100 to 70 keith mitchell 150 to 100 and then taylor gooch and erin wise from 150 to 120 Whole bunch of golfers had their odds lengthen, but I don't think that's as relevant So rory moves, uh, you had 27 to 23. He actually was a 28 when I pulled which means is actually shortened even a little bit more nice, um Any interest in rory this week? Um, so I mean this is basically like This is basically like we do you want to play some of the best golfers on the planet whenever they you might get a little bit of of leverage like sure Um, you know, his iron play has been something that helped me buy back in he had gained in Uh, significant. Well, he'd gained in two four Like seven straight measured events with the irons Six out of seven, uh, he generally almost always gains off the tee But last week he did lose, uh, the northern trust 3.7 strokes from approach gain 3.4 on the greens, which is atypical for him um, and rory honestly Just Rarely shows that like high end putting upside But it's almost like a jt thing where he can lead the field and stroke cnt to green and if he gains like Three strokes putting he can win. Um, we saw him at the Wells Fargo game almost seven strokes putting but like Yeah, we're probably going to talk about the golfer's most people I would say are going to talk about the golfers who looked really good Finished well last week had the best tee to green data. I don't think that's that predictive So I think that we could you know, quote-unquote buy low on rory as a result for tournaments rory or caton smith Rory or camp smith you said yeah for tournament specifically Rory Yeah, I think based on where I'd expect the roster rates to go I think I'd agree with that as well. Which lower salary golfers have odd stand out to you um Yeah, so let me just vamp here because I forgot to filter it Like do you click like 96 97 98 to like you rid of all them or how do you do this? Have you ever filtered? I don't like filtering I filter on my nas car sheets, but that's why it's like specific drivers specific track types. Okay, so do you use You probably use google sheets, huh? No, not for my nas car. I use google sheets when I have to display it for people Okay, because like I don't want to have my actual like excel app It's a lot of work. I'm just asking because I think it's a relevant question bro I think people I think people question I was so close to changing to your sheet for my mlb thing when I was at the airport on monday because I was bored It looks like you can do it though. It's just so you know, I thought about it and decided not to So no, I mean there's a feature that you just say Filter by less than or equal to whatever you want and then that's how you do it when you do that who pops up Uh, so I did it first for 95 9500 and below which I typically do to see if Anyone really stands out and Shane Lowry does he's 35 to 1 and you know a salary is 9500 It's not like a true value, but 35 to 1 is an outlier Relative to that salary and then if we look at golfers whose salaries are 9 000 or below With the best odds we have jason coke rack kevin nod camron champ all 65 to 1 camp champ is only 8400 on Fandall, but his win odds are always So his sportsbook odds are always much shorter I was referring to when I was talking about how it seems like the odds makers are really leaning into the distance angle this week Yeah, I think that's I think that's a big part of it And champ though always seems to be a bit overvalued because he like has those weeks Where he puts it together and wins and looks really good relative to other golfers of his like baseline level But he's one of the worst golfers like long term in the field. So i'm not going to be wanting to bet him Uh, we also have cameron train golly keegan bradley alex noran charlie hoffman at 70 to 1 And then uh, sir. Yo garcia billy horsel herald varner and eric van royne at 80 to 1 So you mentioned shane lowry. He's had tremendous irons recently the wedges have been really good too The off the t-play a bit lacking, but he's still finished really well because the other stuff has been so good Is that enough to draw you in on shane lowry here at $9,500? So I have some appeal. Um, I just are probably not going to be um Living in this range too much and for me even with like recency adjustments my model doesn't particularly like shane lowry as much as like the the sportsbook odds just because You know, there are still some question marks here with his off the t-play with the pang Not being particularly good. He although he is fine on bent grass. So I'm probably not not going to get there, especially because if you if you made me guess Uh, shane lowry is going to be a little bit more popular than he deserves to be just because he is like I mean if you sort by salary and win odds or if you sort by salary you see like Well connor's will be above him there And like nemen's are people like yeah Okay, okay. So if you sort by salary, yes connor's is above him because he's 9600 But i'm saying if you sort by salary, um, i'm not going to name the name the names But from 9900 and below here the here the spandels sportsbook win odds for golfers below 10k 35 35 40 33 35 50 50 50 70 65 so like Lowry is the Lowest salary golfer and then you have a sportsbook odds drop to nemen burn sung jam So I think that lauri is going to be a little bit more popular than he then he should be that's probably true Okay, so weather for this week. Uh, luckily no hurricanes this week The main rain spots in the forecast happening overnight saturday to sunday, but we don't know t times there so Uh, not much to take away from that. There is minimal wind So I would say we can play things straight up and move right into our player picks here for the bmw championship Based on the salaries over at fan duel.com brandy. We talked about john rom already We said 60 to 70 for tournaments lock-in for cash games That does mean we have 30 to 40 with no john rom for tournaments So in those lineups, where are you turning at the top end of the player pool? Um, I like dustin johnson. His salary is 11,200 on fan duel. Yes, like john rom's the best play But I think this is a really good salary for dustin johnson who did play here in 2007 in college Which I think is at least somewhat of an angle and while i'm here Other golfers in this field who played here brian harman billy horeshaw chris kirk Webb simpson, so I mean that could mean something it could mean absolutely nothing don't play golfers Based on that if you don't like what you see, but that's just something in a gay j He might not even remember that he was here, but 93rd percentile and adjusted tita green play this past year with a field strength and recency adjustments which honestly for Like the vibe around dj Which is always slow lower. I mean not specifically Around dj because it's always low energy with dj, but like you would think it'd be probably worse than that But he's still been good tita green According to data golf. He is running cold with the irons super lately one of the worst like past 20 rounds Among the studs an approach play, but Did miss the cut at liberty national? um The northern trust I should say that the course was liberty At liberty city So he didn't have to play like late on monday Didn't have to kind of like sit there and just kind of wait things out Do some putting on his hotel carpet, which Believe it or not jim the pros. They're just like us. They do putt on the carpet sometimes That I had to I do play by play for a putting competition. It was a ladder thing as a fan to a fan fest on sunday Uh, the over under was 50 and a half putts To take for them to sink for each and uh, it was exactly 50s So it actually did pretty good job setting that line there, but uh, how far were the putts? 5 10 15 and 20 you had to sink one from each one one each Yeah, you know, I wouldn't have done any better, but and they were also pretty slanted, but You know, I gotta get that aim point going but uh, yeah So so for dj he has missed two cuts in his past three, which I think will also get people just away from dj He's got five top 25s and three top 10s in his past Five made cuts. So I think they're so upside. I think people probably just won't go to dj And we have at least two kind of narrative based things with the missed cut and not playing and then also playing here way back when Uh, so I like dj is just kind of a tournament pivot this week Would you like to do a dustin johnson versus bryce and dshambo head to head? I don't ever Really want to put too much stock into dj, but I'll do it. Okay. He sounds so enthusiastic I think the quarry conor sir here. I see a putting one is probably better. Anyway, uh, my Handle points vandal points vandal points dj versus bryce. Yeah, okay So the reason I like bryce and if we're again counting on john rom Is the sour is very low. The approach play has been a little bit better recently So i'm kind of interested in checking him out here dshambo has gained three plus strokes on approach and two straight He had not gained three plus strokes on approach Since that tomorrow prior to that since march. There we go He had these and since tomorrow, I mean whatever. Uh, he had even topped the two in that time Maybe that means he's gonna gain four an approach tomorrow in the rounds since we're recording on wednesday I don't know either way if bryce and if bryce and gains for an approach tomorrow You heard it here first. If not, please ignore He finished 31st in northern trust that was bryce and but it's because he lost 5.6 on the short game Don't only expect that with such a good putter out of bryce and though the around the green issues are not as surprising Dshambo 11-1 long course. We know he can take advantage. I'm willing to roll the dice on bryce and here We're calling dyson dshambo Uh, what you got on bryce this week Brandon? Um, I mean it's you made you laid out a good case for him This salary being low is what really helps and honestly if rom didn't feel so unfaithable It'd be a week where i'm like, yeah, like let's play dj bryce and and rory and save some salary and like If these guys show up like At their peaks they can all be the best golfer on the planet, but They feel a little bit farther from that Than john rom right now So I wouldn't talk anyone out of bryce and I just probably I still don't love the iron play from him ever Um, and he is planning on playing in a long drive competition soon. So I don't know if that's gonna if it like if we have the harmon derby Swing change narrative ought to watch out for for bryce and okay good to know Noted for sure. Uh, you were talking about how the irons are doing Uh, which brings us to victor hovland who uh used his irons in creative fashion this past week Um, he is 10 three. What are your thoughts on ol vik here? Yeah, just demolished his potter. I didn't I didn't think he had it in him, uh, but Another guy who uh was in that lineup that was doing really well and then monday happened. So uh all Well vicki and I are not necessarily on talking terms at the moment, but go ahead Well, he and I have a back and forth. Uh, tell him that I'm mad Um Yeah, I mean I'm just going back to hovland at 10 three. I think it's a really good salary He is third in my combo model, which accounts for the stats. I'm looking for Uh, but also long term adjusted form He's in the 93rd percentile and birdie or better eight gained Which is definitely a key stat for me this week Anytime we get a no cut event you want birdies because that leads to fandal points and a birdie plus a bogey is Way better than two pars. And I think we we know that hovland can go low Uh, and just score well when things are going for him rack up a lot of birdies, but 94th percentile ball striking Over the past year 96th percentile and opportunities gained over the past 50 rounds according to fantasy national That's there basically birdie chance Number so like he's writing out really well there getting the getting the ball Into birdie position. So, um, you know and and that past 50 rounds is like starting to look really good too It's like all good fields good events. Um, you know Tough tough golfer so over 72 holes. I think that's gonna that's gonna pay off for us Yeah, I think the hovlands very interesting again I was on him last week and do you not regret it despite the way that it broke later on I think that he makes a lot of sense at 10 three And could be good for like a rom plus balanced lineup. The other guy who grades out well. There's patrick can't lay at 10 seven I was filling out my notes yesterday and was on twitter because i'm chronically online and Saw your win simulations pop up and I was like, hey, that's patrick can't lay Brandon can't lay off can't lay this week. Now that cannot he's a 10 seven Uh, the stats obviously very good for can't lay He ranks in the top 10 in the field in off the t play around the green and in bed grass putting The low lower areas approach where he ranks 21st can't lay did lose 0.7 an approach at the northern trust so Now I get a non-issue But he can make up for it elsewhere when things are not fully on there which gives him a really high floor What gives can't lay a high ceiling is what happens when he does nail the approach. He did that at the memorial He won the event there gained 17.2 total strokes in the field, which is stupid Can't lay Gives us all that for ten thousand seven hundred dollars. It helps us stay balanced after we get into rom So I am very on board with can't lay in a field to this caliber. What are your thoughts of patrick can't lay this week? uh, love them my favorite golfer outside of Rom this week. I would say cool. Uh, my my pick to win um A lot of places and with my actual You know interests, let's say Uh, I just I just love a really well balanced golfer in a no-cut event because You need to kind of you You can have like one bad round, but it can't be a bad round. It has to be like, you know an average round relative to whatever Uh, the scores are But for someone who does everything well, you know, you you really can't It's got to take a particularly bad set of circumstances for you to shoot yourself out Of an event and can't lay just seems really locked in Uh, and at that salary, I think he is just he makes a ton of sense. I would prefer prefer him to rory easily I would like I would like louie plenty, but Then what his health is so for me in that 10,000 range, it's going to be uh, can't lay very very often Same for me. Let's move now to the mid-range. Who stands out to you there? Hideki Matsuyama 9800 is his salary Really rare to see but that speaks to the depth of this field Um, it's just a really really good number for Hideki who is 15th in the field and data golf true strokes gained over the past three months Uh, fourth tee to green in that span um, and you know Surprisingly lost strokes from approach at the northern trust but gained on the greens, which is like the anti hideki um But you know, again, I see the the a little bit of irony in saying we're almost guaranteed to get positive strokes gained From the ball striking and the tee to green numbers from hideki and he didn't put that up last week But that probably just makes it all the more likely that he will bounce back Uh, because we know the long term is so so good from him tee to green so for 9800 like yeah I'm not going to fool on balanced build, but if you just play to john rom find one Possibly two values like you can get back up to this range and that's that's kind of my my main plan for the week I like it too. And I think my preferred guy here is abraham answer at 10,000 feels bet me Uh answer versus hideki. Yeah, okay, sure I mean again for context for anyone who's new jams up 26 to 12 and our head to head fandal point bets, so Can I can I transfer those over the bobble hat? No, okay. All right. I tried uh, other way I think that I think answers being a bit undervalued due to the distance discussion in in it I want to buy low despite not being super long answer is still 14th in the field and strokes gained off the tee He's 15th in approach 16th in bentgrass putting Answers finished 8th or better In five of nine events since the start of may in that stretch He has gained off the tee in all but one event which was the us open He gained 3.7 at the pga 1.4 at the w gc st Jude's is not gaining exclusively in bad fields So I think 10,000 is a great salary for someone as steady as answer and I just think that he's pretty enticing What are your thoughts on abraham answer who you hate apparently relative to hideki matziyama Well, it's funny because he's actually rates out better in my in my combo model. Uh, man, hideki, so What do I know? Um But yeah, I mean like again, it's abraham answer Uh, good on bentgrass. We know he's not going to gain distance But he can still gain strokes off the tee because he's so accurate We know he's a good putter like I don't I don't see enough to dislike him And if we're gonna but if we're gonna make that case, I think it's important that we ask like Why not web simpson? I mean web's form is not as solid as answers. I don't think I mean, it's pretty comparable. I guess. Yeah, I mean like long term. It's virtually the same with those adjustments. I mean Would you so okay, would you consider? Trying to build like an archetype lineup this week okay, um Because I think there's there the archetype I would be going towards would be the distance guys I think all the distance guys are a bit overvalued. So no I think it it might I mean for I think if I go full on like, you know Web-ish type guys and answer type guys, I'm gonna be losing too much I I can't sacrifice that much distance So the only archetype build I could go for would be I guess I could go for just like all out ball strikers Maybe I could do it that way or just like Like approach gods like maybe I could do that But I I can't like the one archetype I gravitate towards this distance And I think a lot of those guys are getting juiced up this week So the best if you wanted to do the inverse which jim's not proposing, but I think that at least It could be web answer Go on. I mean you got it from here Okay, so if you were to do it speed web answer Uh cameron chingali who? Of course again Would you put Don't ask me you don't ask me you got this. I don't care. You know what you take it away Now I was gonna say that just because I have it, uh the best Stroke skeined These are the the best golfers based on that over the past year with all my adjustments louis got xander cam smith spieth Jt Aka for those of us not in the know justin thomas dj. Uh, who is dustin johnson? Uh, web burger rom More cow, can't lay tringali Wow Tringali gonna win again guaranteed. Uh, who else do you like here in this mid-range? um Who do I uh sam burns so talk about distance, huh? Um 9300 quiet like I think he's I would say quietly in good form I haven't heard a whole lot of buzz especially with like the phenyl wind and with all the studs and like drawn Rom at the top like nobody's really focused on sam burns, but um 21st at the northern trust his fourth top 25 in five starts He has indeed 76 tile in this field and adjusted stroking approach over the past year 85th percentile and adjusted putting in that sample as well Over the past 50 rounds according to fantasy national 97th percentile and birdie or better rate gained Long enough to get that edge if we're playing that angle, which I think is our default I was just saying maybe there's an angle that we just do the inverse and and hope that maybe the course doesn't demand distance But you know if you want distance, uh, and a value golfer, I think sam burns very much should be on your radar Yeah, the short game's been getting a lot better recently, which is pretty fun He's been a good putter, but like the chipping's been good too. So I think that burns is interesting I also like walkie neiman around here 94 to dollars, uh Looking at neiman if you compare him to old neiman like You know by neem by that. I mean neiman like when he was 20 as opposed to like 21 or whatever Um, his irons have been kind of cold or colder than usual recently But he's still performing decently well So I think that that's interesting for him in terms of potentially buying low He's gained an average of 0.9 strokes in approach over his past five events His lifetime average is actually double that at 1.8 The other numbers for neiman though looking much better. He's actually gained a stroke around the greens in three The past four measured events He's 30 second in bentgrass putting in this field If neiman can keep those gains and have like an old school neiman iron performance He can finish top five. So I think he's a great option here at 94 to dollars. What about you thoughts on walking neiman this week? Yeah, like neiman, um, definitely long enough, uh, even though he doesn't seem like a big hitter He's got plenty of distance, uh, and he's on bentgrass Which is always something that we should keep in mind with neiman The putting is not always consistent with him, but on bentgrass. He tends to put his best So i'm with you. Uh, he's one of my favorite plays and had you not talked about him I would have okay. Let's move down to the lower salaried range Who are you targeting here at nine thousand dollars and lower? I'm gonna go with jason coke rack coming off that miscut plant that angle For this week a little bit positive putting splits on bentgrass for him 82nd percentile and birdie are better at gained Over the past 50 rounds as well And I mean once you get that out of the way like the putting is probably gonna be Putting's been trending up for him on bentgrass. He's fine Probably gonna make a good number of birdies But we know the the real reason that we should like jason coke rack Is just the ball striking especially whenever he is listed at a value salary We know kind of have that joke where coke racks like always 93 hundred It does kind of go up and down but this week at nine thousand. He's in the value tier He is fifth among all golfers with a salary at nine thousand or below In ball striking stroke scan over the past year with my adjustments. So I think that's pretty strong. We know the putting can be good and honestly, we know I don't like to just cite wins but like we've seen wins recently from him So there is that upside if he puts well and brings the ball striking that he has Coke rack was very close to being one of my picks. I agree. My first low salary guy Shocker cameron tringale. Who could have guessed this just gonna copy and paste everything from last week He did lose 3.9 strokes off the tee at the northern trust Which is always possible with cam tringale, but He's still finished 21st because he gained everywhere else. He ranks 26th in the approach 7th around the green 13th at bentgrass putting he ranks 22nd in data golf's true strokes gained the past six months But ranks 30th in salary for fan duel this week Even with the bad driving I still feel very confident in cameron tringale for this week What are your thoughts on tringale at 8800 dollars? I was muted. I drank my coffee and then I thought I unmuted but um, I actually unmuted myself before clearing my throat earlier and I felt very bad about that So I apologize if you heard me clearing my throat. So, yeah, I think it's the wet. I think it's the Wednesday recording I'm not like up to you know, so Um, I love tringale. He's the best long-term golfer below 9000 pretty easily We talk about him plenty. You talked him up. Uh, you've alluded to him all show as if we had any Reason those last week is where I talked about him I didn't bring up until like at least the 45 Which is a lot of restraint. Yeah, but I think tringale is just one of the best value plays of the week So I'm with you. All right. Who else do you like down here in the value range? Uh, charlie hoffman. We have seen his uh, odds shortened to 70 to 1 from 100 to 1 Is a bit of a weaker putter on bentgrass, but he's gained 0.01 strokes per round on the surface over his past 100. So There we go money. That's positive For 8500. That's a totally fine baseline putting performance. I'm good with that and he's actually third among value golfers in ball striking strokes gained Uh 87th percentile and birdie are better at getting over the past 50 rounds He's 97th percentile in that sample that 50 round sample and opportunities gain So, uh, I don't think it's very fluky that he that he's you know converting birdies. Um, and over those four guaranteed rounds I think opportunities and birdies are just gonna that's what's going to separate He's golfers who aren't finishing necessarily top 10, but who's putting up the most fandal points So that's a big key for this week. I like hoffman as well I think he's a good one if you need a little bit extra wiggle room, you know in terms of value play I could definitely see myself going with hoffman. I also kind of like keegan bradley I want to maybe we could just like maybe if I speed read this part in talking about bradley, but you know He's uh, he's like tringale where we know his shortcomings kind of Hope he does enough elsewhere to overcome that and like it is still the putting holding keegan back He had a string in june july where he lost at least three strokes putting in three straight measured events And it really erased some of the good good vibes We had around keegan the previous months, but you actually gained 2.9th northern trust not expecting that I would never expect that that'd be stupid But it does mean we don't have to automatically put him down for 2.5 strokes lost putting which would seem bad So at least there's that you know, he can gain accidentally at times Keegan ranks 23rd off the tee 11th an approach 16th around the green If he has a putting implosion the first two days at least he's not going to miss a cut like he usually would So he has a weekend to make up for it. He's $8,700. I know his issues I can live with him at that salary. Where do you sit on keegan bradley laid this week? um, so I mean he is almost like career-wise almost neutral on bentgrass Over the past 100. He's not quite so much I was I actually because I started pulled up with the percentage of rounds gained putting on bentgrass I expected bradley to be at the bottom, but he's at 49% So he's above both the gas we bet that's cool um, and gar see the bottom three is garcia Cam champ and quarry conners all below 40s So So keegan, uh, honestly while daniel burgers down there at 47% that's wild um But yeah, so Not as bad as I expected And for the saying keegan's gonna win um, no, but I do I definitely don't mind keegan bradley um But I think there are at least a few other names down here if you really want to Kind of punt. I think it's somewhat viable. I don't know. I would say brian harman at 83 emiliano grillo grillo, sorry Is it great grillo? Yep 7600 max home at 7600 tater gouge 7400 Uh, yeah, I think those are actually all fine. I can't find anything to object to I tried I wanted to agree if he was off to this possible couldn't do it. So Disappointing there let's finish up with our win picks for this week at the bmw championship I don't have even picked out yet. So you go ahead Um, I'm gonna go. I have cantile. Sorry. I want cantile. I knew you're gonna do that. Um, so I was gonna go with cantile Uh, can't wait to if you want Yeah, but I'll go hovland Okay, and I'll go dj because I was talking are you going to hovland despite me? This is just a slap in the face outrageous Why wouldn't that be despite you because of the potter thing last week? We talked about it how we're not on speaking terms and you're just gonna Oh, no, no, you're trying to I'm out here just like Sobbing I picked hovland because it's not fun to me if we pick the same you can golf I won't I won't bet. I'm betting patrick cantley. So I'm recommending them everywhere So everyone knows but I'll take victor hovland for this week And I want to go longer, but I feel like I can't justify going longer than like 35 or so You do need to make up some ground. I know I know but like I again, I don't care about winning I don't want to give out bad recommendations. I don't I don't not gonna give out bad recommendations for the purpose of winning I know we shouldn't do this pot Uh You're gonna go Bryson, aren't you? No It's surprising. I'm gonna go burger at 33 We've not talked about it in the entire podcast But I think we said his name a little bit undervalued. So I'm gonna go do burger I mean, I love Daniel burger, but I just I don't think we said his name at all care I'm not gonna give out stupid recommendations um But like Bryson at 20, it's not stupid. I just but if Fine Bryson, if he wins your fault Bryson and cantley are my two picks. Who'd you pick again? hovland and some other stupid person dj All right DJ again dustin johnson for the uninitiated I mean, okay. So here's the thing like I know we're Wrapping up, but if you look at the past fedex cup the playoff winners It's like all superstars. So it does it is kind of dumb to chase long shots I'm not gonna give out bad recommendations. I'm not I don't care if I win. I'm not gonna give out bad recommendations You don't want uh patin casire. It's not gonna be a chris kirk chris kirk at 210 robert schrebb Nope chris kirk at 210 garan. He said he played here in 2007. That's all that matters. So Uh, really though, it is bryson and cantley you a dj at hovland That is all that we have here for this week I'll back to the regular time next week because obviously things were different this week with the northern trust So back to tuesday next week. We have a lot of stuff here on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed We have mlb We have nfl coming up just around the corner ufc nascar potentially more sports to come who can say who can say But a lot of incentive to subscribe to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast Brandon people have questions for you on twitter. Where can they find you there? macadol 13 gdu la 13 and brandon's weekly q&a coming up today at 3 30 on the fando youtube twitch facebook and twitter pages I am at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s you can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast Big thank you to everyone for tuning in and good luck to you at the bmw championship We'll talk to you once again next week to to wrap up the fedex cup playoffs This has been the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire