 Welcome, traders, to this week's installment of these live analysis sessions with me, Patrick Munley. Before we get going today, obviously, what we want, first of all, adhere to is the risk disclaimer. As we, as you all know by now, it's incredibly important that we understand the risks involved in trading any financial instruments. And more importantly, from my perspective, the opinions I'm sharing today, firstly, don't constitute investment advice, and secondly, they are not related to TickMill. So for those who are here for the first time, I'll just give you a quick context as to who I am. I've been trading for 15 years. I wasn't always involved in financial markets after I graduated. I went into the world of consulting, and then I left a city, PLC, and got involved in a startup, consulting startup, experienced some pretty rapid growth, and after 45 years, I cashed in my stake in that business and I had a bunch of time on my hands and some chips to play with. So I started to, what I've referred to as meddle or gamble with respect to the markets, I had a front row seat due to the nature of the work I was doing in the startup to witness the tech boom and bust, seeing people making moves, fortunes in the markets, quite literally overnight at times. And so I started day trading the E-mini S&P and the market was predominantly trending north, and I caught some lucky early breaks and started to make some solid and then some quite significant gains, and I've all seen rosy until, as is often the case, my big luck ran out and things hit the skids, say in the least. I ended up not just losing what I've made, but I actually took a six-figure hit as I started averaging down into losing positions. So it was at that stage I decided to step back from trading and try and gain some perspective and understand whether or not I could actually make training work as a commercial endeavour, as I've done in other business enterprises. And so I sought out a mentor, someone who demonstrated excellence in the field of trading, worked with him for 18 months, two years, developed a trading plan, business plan, fully back-tested, forward-tested and came back into the markets 2008 with a solid approach to markets. And really what I'd learnt from working with a mentor is not just the technical skills I needed to operate consistently in the market, but most importantly, it was the mental skills and they stood me in good stead. And I navigated 2008, came out at the end of the year profitable and have been profitable on an annual basis since then. The reason you can see performance from 2013 on the screen is that that's when I started my managed account service and it's initially family and friends. It's all I was doing. I wanted to get in on the action and it's growing organically since then. It's now a multi-million dollar portfolio that I've managed and like I say, on an annual basis, I've managed to be consistently profitable and that's because what I do is I'm not interested in the outcomes of individual trades or even small streams of trades. What I'm looking at is the next hundred trades and I'm focused really or my sole concern is process. You know, if I execute my trading plan from a process perspective with excellence, then over a significant or over an extended series of outcomes, my edge will demonstrate itself and I'll I should deliver positive returns. That's not to say that I don't have strings of losing trades, losing months, multiple losing months, none of that. You know, I'm not I'm not bothered about about that. I accept loss as part of the process in terms of moving towards the next next game. I guess really what I focus on is the fact that when I lose an average losing month is 2.4 percent, an average winning point is a month is 8.1 percent. And so if you extrapolate that out, you know, I'm getting somewhere between two to three times my risk reward in terms of returns. So that's that's my core focus. Most of the the trading I do is end of day stuff now. So I have a bunch of time, but, you know, I still want to be involved in markets. And so I have a couple of other projects. I obviously am the resident market experts at Tick Mill. I provide a daily market outlook and a set up that I'm potentially looking after the day ahead or within the next few sessions. You can subscribe by the blog page there to receive those to your inbox. And then the the other project that I'm heavily involved in is effects career swap. This is really a way of giving something back in terms of helping retail traders overcome what are a bunch of key challenges, primarily not just in terms of helping develop them from an education perspective, but working towards actually managing meaningful capital. Because the reason most retail traders end up liquidating their accounts is that they're woefully undercapitalized. And so when it comes to once they've got a plan in place and they've got risk management, they know what they're doing finally. For most retail traders, even if they adhere to their plan and, you know, execute it with professional risk management standards, you know, even a 30 to 50 percent annual gain, which is fantastic. If you're trading a thousand pound account, that really doesn't move the needle in terms of financial return. So what tends to happen to retail traders is they they leverage up. They take on too much risk. They run into a small drawdown, but because they're over leveraged and overextended on the risk side, the drawdown basically wipes their account. And so that's the really the the merry go round that most retail traders find themselves on. They experience that process over and over to the point which they just get sick of it and they're going to do something else with this for a time. So what we're offering at FX Korea Swap is we're saying, you know, we believe in the education we're providing, we believe in our community and the support that it gives traders to the point that we will actually fund you for a meaningful sum of money that you can then grow over time. I've got a poor CD from trial service at the moment. I'll put a link into the chat if anyone is interested in learning more about that service. And actually this evening, I'm hosting a webinar which will explain in more detail the service, nothing to that in the chat. If you want to join me this evening at six p.m., you are all welcome. So that gives you a flavor of where I'm coming from. Now let's move into thinking about the markets and what we're up to. So share this chart last week and that, you know, want to always be cognizant of the seasonality that we tend to see in markets. And as we anticipated, the dollar is having a decent run, maybe it's the best amount of the year on average. I'm going to look at the dollar chart in a minute and some of these are some very interesting positions because this dollar strength that we're witnessing in May tends to be the, you know, tends to put in a tradeable high in terms of the dollar because we then see a swoon in terms of the summer months for the dollar. Obviously, the other major is picking up a bit from losses seen in May. In terms of other seasonality that I'm also tracking that is the S&P 500. We saw very strong April as we'd anticipated versus the historic seasonal trends. And May looks to, we're looking at a bit of a wobble here at the start of May or mid-May now. And we could see that that persists throughout the month before we see some gradual pickup in the S&P. So if we think about the S&P as the global barometer for risk, we want to be cognizant of what's moving that. Another thing of interest or note that I would pay attention to, I posted this to the trading team, I don't know if it's Chris or this morning. Sterling has taken a bit of a dive, I wouldn't say dive, but a swoon here this morning. We've had Trump out on the wires talking about King Dollar. I guess he's at the stage now where, you know, he's in a position where obviously these economies are going to open up again. We'll see how that plays out in terms of the pandemic and the implications for a re-emergence of infections. But yeah, he's talking about King Dollar and about the fact that, you know, he would like to see negative interest rates, but he accepts that, you know, at this stage that the dollar is king in terms of the global scale. And so this is moving into election campaigning rhetoric at the moment, so expecting to flip-flop a bit. But we've seen a bit of a drop in Sterling and we note that in terms of the FX options, the last 24 hours, big increase in some downside attention. Certainly it's that 120 area and we'll look at that 120 area in a minute because we've got a deadline coming up at the end of June with respect to the Brexit talks again. And the implications at this stage are that, you know, the UK once again are adopting a fairly hard stance and that appear to be up for much negotiation. So the options market is starting to look at downside potential. And so where we see these 120s, basically what they are, is that they're downside structures which allow the purchaser of the option to take, you know, to take possession of that 120 strike on the date. So, I mean, if, you know, if you're going to, if you're betting that prices are going to decline, you've got a 120 downside strike, then what they're allowed to do, depending upon where price is heading into that period, you know, your profit is anywhere below that 120 area. So it's certainly something to keep an eye on. It's something I update the guys in our, in our, in our team chat on the daily basis, the options flow, it's something to keep an eye on. We're also this VIX structure, the VIX, obviously the volatility index with respect to the S&P 500. You see, we'd look to be tracking here where the kind of the model we saw in 2008, 2009, whereby we've got a spike in the VIX and then we got that secondary spike before we saw as we've traded into what ultimately became a low. So it's important to watch this VIX move. And certainly as we're seeing a pullback in terms of the S&P at the moment. Again, this is a similar thing. Looking for that secondary spike in terms of the VIX here would suggest that we have a little bit of work to do, maybe on the downsides. Again, this is just the analogies with respect to 07, 08 in terms of rallies and scope of rallies, 46 days, 24 percent. Obviously, we've seen a lot more than that most recently, but in terms of time and price, something to keep in mind. And it says the analogies. This is taken from Jeff Gundach, Dublin Capital. You can see that in 1929, for example, we were with 1929, we got a significant pullback before rolling over and the real nightmare set in in terms of the economic decline. And if we listen to Fed Chair Powell last night, he certainly was sanding the alarm with respect to the markets. We've had a bunch of high profile investors outside for the past couple of days, knows the Drucker Miller thinking that this market's got ahead of itself and that we probably have some more work to do on the downside. So again, it's just these are market themes or dynamics that we want to be cognizant of as we're navigating through the charts. Finally, this I've shared this before, but it's worthwhile revisiting this idea of the dollar cycles and the potential that we're heading into a major dollar peak here and certainly driven by the amount of liquidity that the Fed is putting into the market is potentially going to drive that. And this is the Goldman Sachs monthly 16 year cycles in terms of the dollar index as well, which we've just completed. So these are again, these are just factors that I want that I keep in mind. This is the US dollar seasonality. Obviously, we just looked at it through the heat map, but we tend to see a peak into this summer month and then a decline in the dollar. So those are factors that I certainly want to be cognizant of as we now move into the charts. So we want to check in with this monthly dollar index chart as I keep you, I try to keep you aware of these hard time frames we're at this major trend line. We've seen each month that we've, you know, during the month we've traded higher, tested the trend line, tested the way of the trend line. But at the end of the month consistently or the lot, you know, we close the last two months below it. And if we get a third close this month below it, that would certainly be concerning to dollar bull, dollar bull. Sorry. So keep an eye on this this monthly chart. It's one that I certainly pay attention to. Now, in terms of the current environment, the current trend starts up. Well, we've got this. This is the Dow Jones dollar index, which is an equally weighted dollar index versus the Euro, Stirling, Yen and the Aussie on an equal way basis. And we can see here that we're just coming in some symmetry swing swing resistance. When I refer to symmetry swings, I'm measuring prior swings in the decline and looking for those to act as resistance. We've got a cluster here at this one twenty five ninety area, one twenty five sixty. We're just trading into there now. And I'm watching to see if this is the area where we're going. Things are going to get a bit sticky to the dollar. And we're certainly over overbought in terms of the momentum. And I also know that we're coming into some trend line resistance with respect to our side indicator. So if we hold this trend line resistance, we get a bearish reversal in this area. And certainly again, I'd be looking at deploying dollar shorts. If we take the DXY, so this is the broader dollar index as versus six major pairs, it's quite heavily weighted in terms of Europe, also includes things like the Swedish Crone, which I'm particularly heavily traded. But again, we're trading at this trend line resistance. Now we've broken it certainly and traded above, but we fail to close. So watching today, we're also trading at the monthly R1. We've we're in the midpoint in terms of the psychic indicator in terms of sentiment, but we are in terms of momentum getting into the oversold area. So I'm really paying attention today. And you'll see there are a bunch of these charts. Now they're at this key inflection point. If we get a break, if we take out the trend line on a closing basis, then what I'd be looking for or we then start to pay attention to potential upside here. And the first port of call will be the equidistant swing, which would actually see the dollar up into this one one 60 area. We think we've probably got some further conference here if we look at this equality move. So yeah, so if we if we close above this one hundred and forty area one hundred and fifty, then it's one one hundred and ninety to one one one sixteen will be the next area of interest in terms of the upside. And again, if we if we take out that zone, then we're up into the one six one extension of this structure, which we've had us up at one or two. And if we bring the fibs there, let's see where that comes in terms of and that's a seventy eight point six percent retracement. So where we get this confidence of the one six one extension and the seventy eight point six percent retracement. Certainly pay attention to those areas because those are levels that we often see reversals or new trends emerge. So we trade up into there, get a sell signal, and there's still opportunity to to see down. So you've got to bear in mind as well, we're trading with it. We're heading into the summer months and often the summer months in terms of forex and most markets are defined by range. And so at this stage, we're still in it, you know, we're still in the range here. And even if we break up here, we're still within the march range. Obviously, the march range is very extended due to the nature of the pandemic and the crisis trading. So it is an extended range, but we are still just trading within ranges. We're not we're not really breaking out as such at this point. Obviously, if we do take out this one or two, then as I've mentioned before, there is certainly scope for an upside target here of one or six in the dollar. Less likely at this stage, but again, always want to be paying attention to where the where we can go in terms of market mapping and realistic expectations with respect to prior price swings. We're not just pulling levels out of the air. We're letting the prior moves within the chart give us ideas of where prices is likely to go. Another one that I'm watching at the moment is this swissie. Again, you'll you'll note this theme in terms of triangles is is prevalent at the moment. But the swissie trading back up into the resistance area and see the wicks we've seen here every time we've got up into this 97 late 27 area. So watching to see what happens as we test here. We've also got again, thinking in terms of these momentum trend lines and paying attention as we get up into this area, because this may may stall again here. And then we've got another move back down to the support area. If we take it out, which would obviously imply that the dollar index takes out that its descent, its first train line, then we've got the next area of interest at 98 50 in the swissie and certainly watching that. Gollien played this from the from the long side earlier in the week with the reversal patterns per our strategies. Now what I'm looking for is. One second, what I anticipate now is that we hold symmetry swing support. We could drive higher here. Let's see, we've probably got a little internal. Equality move there as well, we have. So if we do, if we do push higher here in terms of the dollar again, 108 30 to 108 50 is the area I'd be watching to to set short positions. And ultimately, I'm looking for a test of this 104 60, which is the equality objective versus this structure. So this this high is reaction low and the reaction high. Whilst we trade below this 108 30, then that's the downside objective from there. Obviously, we could see a more meaningful correction ensue. But if we do get down to that and certainly want to pay attention to how the dolly end trades there, because that could be a decision point for the market in terms of the next next phase for dolly end. Lulee, obviously similar story trading in the triangle. So I'm watching triangle resistance coming up to the over overbought area with respect to the. The momentum studies and so watching the loony as as we trade here, because I've still got a downside target on the loony of this 136 area, which is the quality. So basically what we've done is we've had a first egg down. We've corrected an hour in this complex correction, similar story in many charts that we look at today. But these are certainly very tradable and third to patterns. So it's well worth paying attention to these trend lines and how price reacts at them. You can either do most of my trading, like to say, daily chart. You can also look on those intraday charts to try and tighten up your risk reward parameters so you get down to the early four hour charts and see when we hit these trend lines, how price responds. If you get that bearish reversal or bullish reversal, depending upon where we where we're at, then there will be an opportunity in terms of in terms of this dollar card and a bunch of these I'm looking at. I haven't got anything there. The euro. So this is the one I'm really paying attention to. We're testing that sending trend line. If we can find support here and on the initial stab into this area, it looks like we're some bids are emerging in the market. But certainly a close back through the near term be worth. So today would be one of eight twenty three would be would set up a bullish reversal and the potential then to trade up to test trend line resistance. Certainly the first target would be this one or nine. We had a pop up there yesterday. Important to also understand. And I shared this in my daily market updates. Daily market outlook, sorry, is that we're in a position at the moment where there's a significant options flow, twelve billion dollars worth of options expire this week between 107 50 and 109. And that's kind of defining the range at the moment. Once they've gone after, you know, the end of the week, we could then, you know, we could have the potential to get up and test trend line resistance. And as I posted before, we have that interim equality target at one 1050 if we can get through that trend line. But like I said, always be cognizant as we head into the summons of range trade. And you can see the volatility bands are flattening out somewhat here. So first of all, we'll call the 109 if we can get a reversal today. And then 109 70 on to one 1050. Another child I'm watching is the Euro kiwi heading up potentially about to test some symmetry swing resistance here at this 181 area. And if we do find and get a bearish reversal pattern here, then we could have an opportunity to do something on a short side targeting a move down into this seventy eight point six percent retracement of this prior advance. And from there, we could see a more meaningful move. But watching this one eighty one forty area, again, bearish reversal patterns depending upon how you choose to trade. You can look on the four hour of the hourly charts to see if we get a reaction there and get some of your risk reward sterling. So this is what I was this is the one I was talking about earlier. Whilst we're trading, we have a we have a trend line here. Whilst we're trading below that trend line, then, you know, we're kind of in a fairly well-defined channel, which will take us down into this equality target at the one 20 area. Sorry, the one six one extension and the 50 percent retracement at this one 20 area. Now, if if we can, if someone can find its feet today and get a bullish reversal of clothes back above the VWAP one, two, three, five, then there's the potential for another symmetry swing move here. And you can see this will take us into a kind of head and shoulders scenario whereby we have Streltson, you have this as your shoulder here for the double head and then and then we have our other shoulder over here. So watching today because it could be certainly a tradeable set up if we get that support here at the one 2160 holds bullish reversal, then there could be a long to trade back up into the one 25 area before we probably get that next leg lower to test this one 20. And remember, certainly be cognizant of those downside options that are in play there. But from that one 20, that'll be a key decision point, I think, for Stirling. And it's from there that we can see the next leg higher. Certainly have open targets at the 78.6 percent tracements again, the level always want to be aware of at that one 28. So, you know, we can be getting up to one 28 depending upon and again, we'd have to be looking always when paying attention to the market dynamics in terms of the narratives with respect to Brexit, etc. And I'm paying attention to that. Stirling yen is coming into its support or decision point that I'd be paying close attention to one twenty nine fifty, one twenty nine seventy. We get some bullish reversal patterns here. I'd look for a symmetry swing for potentially then setting up that next leg lower to test into its 78.6 percent tracement area. So watching one twenty nine fifty, one twenty nine eighty as the potential reversal zone, the Aussie. Seeing the pullback that that I talked about with the trade team. So we're testing looking now for a test of the quality objective at this sixty three sixty six three thirty area. Whereby I'd still be then looking for a final leg hard to complete this this sequence and test that sixty seven, which is seventy one six percent tracement and this equality target versus this structure here. So sixty three sixty six three thirty. The key areas I'm going to be watching bullish reversal patterns set long positions for the sixty seven test. Aussie yen similar story. Correct. Correction developing here, but we've got equality at the sixty seven sixty seven seventy area. Get down there. I'm going to be watching bullish reversal patterns again for the same type of play to get this final thrust higher into this seventy eight point six percent retracement and the equality objective at seventy two level. And then I think we can see a more meaningful correction in Sioux similar story in the Aussie key Aussie Swiss. We have the potential here for this equidistant swing to play out. And that would take us nicely into the seventy one six percent retracement. So again, watching for bullish reversal patterns monthly V wax gone bullish. So we can play a continuation trade from the central tendency here if we get a bullish reversal in the Aussie Swiss. Because the Kiwi and tracking this one for a while. It looks like it's about to complete its it's impulse leg here. And so I'm watching for a move into this one eight fifty area. And certainly there I'd be looking at the potential for short positions and looking for a quality move the last leg down. Practically the cycle low. So I think we can easily anticipate that if we can get these bearish reversal pattern in around one eight fifty, then certainly I think we can play for one or four on the downside in the coming months. So keeping that one on the radar Kiwi is testing trend line support. Distant swing, key test here now. Note that we have or we are breaking down here. This bullish momentum support looks like it might be failing. So that could forewarn us that the trend lines are going to hold. But again, if we get bullish reversal here, we've got unfinished business to my mind up at this sixty four thirty, sixty four eighty area. So we've just been consolidating in the range. And let's see if we can get reversal patterns to target the completion of this initial leg off the lows. Similar story in the Kiwi Yen, a little bit more defined in terms of range. So we're looking for a test back down to the sixty three ten, sixty three fifteen area bullish reversal patterns get long for the quality objective up at the sixty nine fifty. Yes, so at the moment, I'm short. The only trade I've got on at the moment is the cad yen, which I'm short. It's risk free now. And it looks like it's we've got some Canadian data coming out later and we can expect some volatility. So we'll see where we are after that data. But looking at this stage to try to test the same trend line sport down to seventy five, there may be another pop higher before we're going to move back down again, but bearish the cad yen at the moment. This structure looks corrective versus this decline. I'd be expecting new loads monthly be what bearish again. You can see the contraction in terms of volatility bands making it making it tricky in the in the center, you know, the high volume node in terms of the triangle, central triangle. So finally, I'm going to finish up with a couple of charts here. I've got the S&P 500 in the correct pattern, like the Aussie, the Aussie and the S&P have been trading in tandem. So I'm looking for twenty seven fifty eight to hold in in the futures here. So we get this move. Then like the Aussie, like a bunch of these other charts, I'm looking for this last leg in this initial correction. We've got a bunch of equality objectives, one, six, one extensions, equidistant swing, seventy one, six cent retracement. And I think once we get up here, then we should see some exhaustion in terms of this initial move off the loads. And again, I've been looking for something like a fifty percent retracement maybe into the summer as we just grind out a correction here. And then we'll see how we're looking in terms of, you know, the economies reopening, what sort of data we're getting in terms of reinfections, etc. But anything in this thirty one forty, thirty one, sixty area bearish reversal patterns, intraday charts. You can also use a game type of a risk reward. But that's what I'm looking for. So I'm going to look to see if I can get an entry on the long side. First of all, at this twenty seven fifty eight area in the coming sessions. And the last chart I'll leave you with is gold. Shev, this is a chart chart of the day today. I'm looking for one more push down into the support to complete a corrected structure here, ABCD pattern. And then I think we get the move higher. Pay attention as we test the quality objective versus this structure here. An equidistant swing. And we also have the one two seven extension of this this last leg down here. So. Watching how we trade if we trade up into the 1766 area, because this could this could cap things. But if we get through there, then I'm looking for 1850 as the next upside objective. So watching it now, I think we get it. You know, we test this trend line and we get this one last swing low. That's an opportunity to get in on the long side. So I've showed a bunch of charts there. I hope that's been useful for you. Does does anyone have any questions at this stage? Guys, you do. You can type them into the chat or a chart. You want me to look at that might not have covered. And I'm happy to cover that for you. Um. They are day on that's that's a topic. That would be a little bit too tricky to cover right now in terms of the time I've got left in this webinar. If you want to drop me an email, I can send you information on how option expires impact the effects market. Essentially, it's to do with hedging by the options providers. So mainly the big banks that if if price is trading in and around the options strike, then if they're trading through those levels, they have to hedge in the spot market to cover potential losses. And that's what that's what creates the kind of magnetism of these. You know, when I say options levels, I'm talking, you know, they need to be in excess of well, excess of a billion dollars to be to prove magnetic in the market. This week, like I said, we've had 12 billion dollars in euro optionality between 1,750 and 109. And you can see how the prices at this point has been penned in by those options. So pet engines, the bigger strikes is my advice. Certainly if we're trading into them on the upside, potentially it's resistance on the downside, potentially the support. But again, be cognizant of the size. It needs to be at least a billion plus. Any other questions? Euro see? Yeah, I know it's a shopping market. Just want to say, yeah, I mean, again, so you know, this is a bet on the Swiss National Bank. And like I said before, they are, you know, look at the chart in 2015 when they pulled the peg and an all hell broke loose. Technically, we're in a declining wedge. And, you know, you could expect outside from here. But on the bit of, you know, how we're trading at the moment, the weight of the bounce probabilities to the downside. And I did note a while back and I shared this in the chat that there was some big optionality down at 103 in the Euro Swiss for this summer. So, you know, we could still see a further grind lower here. And like I say, the Swiss National Bank are notorious at throwing in the towel. So I won't be relying on them. Any other questions? Anthony, the, yeah, yeah. So in terms of looking at the lower time frame, so, for example, if we just quickly show you something. So this is the daily chart of this, you know, this is this big daily trend line in terms of the Euro. Now, what you can do to try and tighten up your risk reward is you can go to the hourly chart. And you can see we tested just shy of the trend line and we've got a, you know, a reversal here. But to my mind, in terms of, you know, how I look to manage my risk, I need to see a close back above the near term VWAP. So if I'm going to close back above the near term VWAP, this is the daily VWAP of 10834. So if I'm going to close above that, then what I would look to do would be looking at a long position. Risking the swing low and a few pins below it, initially looking to target into the daily VWAP. We've got the daily pivot here. So now this is 1.5 risk return. Like I said, what I'm ultimately looking for is, you know, we've got that. There's 109 options. We've got the range highs here. So again, thinking in terms of range at the moment, by the time we get up into those range highs, if this is my play, then I've got three times risk reward. Does that make sense, Anthony? Yeah, absolutely. OK, if there are any more questions, I'm going to wrap this one up here. I hope it was useful keeping on these these key trend lines and I'll join you all again next week. And like I say, if you want to join me this evening, there's a webinar I put the link in the chat where I will go into a bit more detail about trade pro program. Thanks very much for your time and I hope you found this helpful.