 This is Covering the Spread, here are your hosts, Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang. What is going on everybody, welcome on into Covering the Spread, that's right here on the FanDual Podcast Network and NumberFire.com where today we're getting you set for the NBA playoffs by talking about the conclusion of the regular season and taking a quick peek at the futures market with Drew Dinsick, whalecapper, swinging by today to break down NBA futures and what he sees on the board. My name is Jim Saunas, I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com, joined here as always by Dr. Ed Fang. You can find his work over at thepowerrank.com and Ed, NBA season is starting to come to a close. They've got that crazy, crazy blitz coming up on Sunday with all the games. Starting at the same time, I've barely paid attention to NBA this year, which is why I don't talk about it here on the podcast. What about you? What's your level of investment in the NBA right now? Yeah, you know, I mean, I love basketball. I mean, played so much growing up, loved the game, kind of wish I had more time but you know, you go through more madness and that's all consuming and then April, every year I go through April and I'm more consumed by the draft. Right. But now, you know, it's time to start thinking about the NBA. So, so interested in talking to Drew today and yeah, I really, you know, I feel a little bit embarrassed to say that I'm kind of an NBA playoffs fan because that's kind of most people out there and that clearly doesn't make me an expert in terms of what to bet by any means, which is well, that's why we had the experts on. Yeah, exactly. That's what the experts are for. There is a reason we have them on and we're I'm talking NASCAR and not talking NBA. Yeah. Like just with the way this. What? Go ahead. I'm just excited for the playoffs. I think things are really interesting with the Nets this year, with the Lakers being so low in the standings. I think there's a lot of intrigue. There's a lot of betting that's going to go way outside anything that numbers can kind of tell you with superstars like LeBron being hurt and things like that. I think that makes it interesting and since I actually ran no like zero NBA numbers this year, the first time I haven't even run the team rankings. I mean, since I put up my site, honestly, right. So yeah, you know, from from my perspective, I can't do everything. So something's kind of go by the wayside. So it's, you know, for me, this month is going to be kind of looking at what experts like Drew think and going from there. I mean, if we can't be informed on everything, I definitely cannot be informed on the NBA because that'd be starting from ground zero. So that's what we lean on people like Drew. You can find him on Twitter at whale underscore cap or you can also find him on his new podcast. It's the bet the edge podcast on NBC sports edge with him and Sarah Perlman. We're going to talk to him about that, the new podcast NBC life. We're going to talk to him about the NBA futures market playoffs being around the corner. Drew is still doing the deep dive podcast. So fans of that can still find him there. Make sure you do so as well. We'll get his read on the NBA futures market. Also this week, fan dual win totals went up for the NFL for this year. If you want some thoughts on which teams you may want to buy into we had NFL discussion last week with Kevin Cole of pro football focus talking about takeaways from free agency and the draft in which teams he is buying into for this year. All some wind total talk in my covering the future for this week as well. But if you want to find the talk with Kevin about NFL improvements, go to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast. We are an Apple podcast, Spotify, Stitcher, Google podcast. You name it, we're there. And while you're there, make sure you subscribe and leave a rating and review as well. Before we talk to Drew, though, got to go back to last week. We had some NASCAR on the podcast and it kind of seems like got a little hot streak going with NASCAR right now. Covering the past. So last week, a good week here on the podcast. I had NASCAR at Darlington, a second consecutive good week there. I was in a Martin Truex, Jr. Now it's Bowman Truex outright Bowman. I had podium and top 10 bets. Bowman didn't pan out. He had tire issues. I didn't have enough time to work his way back through the pack. Had some speed at one point, but no win there. But Truex worked out really well. I had him at plus 750 for the outright. He took the lead on lap 22. He basically never looked back. He led 248 out of 293 laps, just dominated the race. Did get a late challenge from Kyle Larson, but held them off and got the win. So plus 150, not a super long number, but I had him at 14 percent in my win simulations, the implied at 7 to 1 is 12 and a half percent. There were some eighths hanging out there as well. I think DraftKings had him at 8 to 1. So either way, there was an edge in the sims. It played out to perfection. Truex dominated. Feel pretty good about that. He's I think he's plus 350 this week. So good luck with that. I'll I'll I'll hold off for this week for sure. And Ed, you were on the Mets. You talk about the Mets and how cluster luck had been working against them in the time sense. Then the Mets are six and one. That is despite Jacob de Grom getting like half or two thirds of a start in that time due to some more side tightness. So a good week for the podcast here between the Mets and NASCAR. Yeah, for sure. I mean, I'm still it's not like I've bet the Mets recently, but it's good to know that they're coming back based on the analytics. I still think that baseball market is really hard. But if you did, I if you did, I hope you did. And yeah, we'll continue to try to give advice like that. And they will need to keep it up with the Grom on the injured list now. So we'll we'll hope they keep on swinging a hot stick to get that record continuing in the right direction. We're talking to Drew Dinsick in just one second. But first, the preakness is just around the corner. And FanDuel Racing is helping you get in on the action. FanDuel will match your first deposit dollar for dollar up to 50 bucks when you open a new racing account. That is free money you can use to turn race day into payday. There is no promo code needed. Just download the FanDuel Racing app and make your first deposit. And you're off to the races. The app is super easy to use. Most payouts occur in a matter of minutes. Start building your bankroll today. Be ready for the race on Saturday this week, because it's not the preakness that in the stakes. It's one of Baltimore's greatest sporting traditions, and it just got even greater. Download the FanDuel Racing app and make your first deposit and get up to 50 bucks for free on FanDuel. If more details is at FanDuel.com or download the FanDuel Racing app today, eligibility restrictions apply. Let's talk to Drew Dinsick now. Get his read on the NBA Futures Market. Again, you can find him on Twitter at well underscore capper. The NBC Sports Edge Bet the Edge podcast as well and the deep dive podcast. Let's check in with Drew and see which futures we should be betting as the NBA grinds towards the end of its regular season. Covering the present. Let's bring Drew Dinsick into covering the spread to talk some NBA with the regular season winding down and Drew, you're a busy guy. You got the NBC money coming in. How are you doing now? The NBC is such a cool kind of way to come up in the space. You know, we're reaching a broader audience now, communicating about sports betting the right way. I guess this is yeah, this has been a ton of fun. And yeah, we're doing daily content now as in the betting space for NBC, which is sweet. Yeah, I mean, it's exciting when big companies decide to go people who who understand the sphere, understand like the nuance of it. So I was excited when I saw that you had gotten this gig with you and Sarah Perlman. I think that's a fantastic hire for them. But I mean, for you now, like you've got your full time job still. You've got your bets you're making. You've got the deep dive podcast still. You're kind of doing a lot of stuff. How is the time management been so far so far so good? It is certainly going to be interesting come fall when NFL season rolls around. That tends to suck a lot of time and, you know, it's going to be a balancing act for sure once we get there. And actually, honestly, NBA playoffs coming up is going to be an interesting thread the needle as well, for sure. But without a question, kind of continuing to create and provide what I think is, you know, a pretty important, you know, kind of content that reaches the, you know, the recreational plus the professional better in a way that they have something to, you know, to really chew on when it comes to handicapping, I think is important. And hopefully we're filling that niche. Now, usually do tennis stuff for them, too? Or are you just doing NBA NFL right now? French open coming up, knock on wood. I'll get involved in some some way, shape or form. OK, good to hear. Good to hear. I mean, no one really needs earthquake engineering to build buildings in Southern California, right? We haven't had an earthquake in LA in a long time. People forget it, but there you go. Yeah. There you go. Who cares about the day job, right? We got to we got to, you know, the daily content is definitely going to be keeping you busy. Yep. Earthquakes are so 1990s. Well, that's glad I'm glad you got the new podcast. Glad things are going well. And happy you still have time to talk with us for a little bit. And let's talk about some NBA. And this is the last time we get to talk to you before the play offs, and we're probably not going to have time, you know, to do like individual game stuff. Once the playoffs do get here. So one to pick your brain a bit about alterations you make when you're betting the playoffs, because things obviously change. Rotations, Titan, stuff like that. Are there things you have to adjust to account for that with as far as like must win games go and any other adjustments you make that we may overlook when it comes to betting playoff games? Yeah, I mean, honestly, it's like a different sport. It's really like handicapping a different sport in regular season NBA. And actually, this year has been closer to my playoff approach just because we've had so many clusters of games where you have had common opponents. It's made it a little bit more important to try to kind of sift through, you know, what the market is doing in some of these spots and try to identify value. But when it comes to the playoffs, there are a couple of key things that differ for me. Number one, this season during the regular season, I've focused solely on on sides. I've completely abandoned totals. That was that was like a specific decision for this season, considering there were no fans. I didn't know what the impact was going to be on shooting. And the impact was massive. The the amount of three point shots that are going in right now is at a rate that you would barely believe it was, you know, possible if you had the last 20 years of data. And sure enough, without the noise, without the fan distraction, you know, guys are hitting open threes at historic rates, offensive efficiencies like I think five or of the top six all time offensive efficiencies are all this season's teams. And it's just like that, you know, that that sort of stuff, you know, if you can't see it coming, if you're not prepared for it from a betting standpoint, and you know, then you're betting into totals like best of luck to you. So I I swerved on totals for the regular season. That ended up being a great decision. But come playoffs, most of my edges that I think are especially meaningful end up being totals. And it kind of comes back to the fact that, you know, you can, you know, what's going to happen in a seven game series with a spread between two teams, assuming that there are no meaningful injuries. They're running out the same lineup every day. You know, it's not like baseball series where you get a different starting pitcher every night. So there's going to be a little bit of fabric to what the lines, you know, telling you NBA, it is the same, same, same seven, eight guys are getting the same, same expected minutes night in, night out. The only thing that changes in an NBA series is venue, you know, after the first couple of games. So you, you know, so how the side matures over the course of a seven game series, it becomes less and less valuable, valuable to bet into the side. Cause come game six, seven, you know, five, six, seven, you're basically betting a coin flip on the side. The total, in my opinion, is a little different because it's anchored to whatever they open that total in game one. And there can be factors that are unaccountable in game one, that once you see it play out, you can incorporate into game two. You know, oh, surprise, this team decided that they were going to run, you know, a faster pace than they have on average during the season because they thought that's, you know, you know, suited their advantage. You know, okay, well, now that we know that and we rerun what the fair total ought to be in game two. Oh, it's off by five points, right? You know, like those sort of, you know, opportunities do manifest in the totals market over the course of the series, which, you know, I think it's pretty important to kind of key on. And then the, you know, the other way to play a series from a game by game betting standpoint is to, you know, just to try to evaluate, okay, this coach does this when the going gets tough, right? When he is running, you know, when Team X shuts off their transition offense, they go with these sets and then will that work against this defense? And if the answer is yes, then, you know, they have a chance to come back in the series. If the answer is no, then, you know, bombs away on the favorite, right? So you can kind of find some, you know, some indicators from how coaches handle adversity and what their go-to adjustments are going to be because in series adjustments kind of tend to dominate a lot of the, you know, a seven-game series or lack of adjustments in the case of, say, the Milwaukee Bucks. You know, they're for sure are, you know, are kind of read between the lines. This is what this coach does and we can use that to inform, you know, whether we should get involved with this team now that we're seeing the market give them an extra couple points, you know, if they're down 3-1. So with your totals numbers, do you need to like abandon all pre-2020-2021 data as a result of what you've seen during the regular season or how are you adjusting that if you are going to dive back in to the totals market for the postseason? Yeah, so a couple of important assumptions I'm making heading in. I think my data from previous seasons, particularly playoff series, is going to be valid because there are going to be some fans in pretty much every arena. I think Portland is the only one that we're still waiting on confirmation that there'll be fans in the lower bowl. And in my opinion, at least, you know, the way the game was ref and the way that, you know, shot lines were undisturbed and noise was not a factor. It really was what played into the offensive efficiency. Boom, we saw much more so than, say, the schedule being compressed and players being tired. Like those are kind of the two competing theories that I've heard as to why the offensive efficiency was so high this year. I and so I'm guessing that it's going to feel more like a typical NBA game come playoffs, you know, than than what we saw from a lot of stretches during the regular season. So I think my guess is it's going to be valid. You know, that said, if we are proven, you know, if we are that said, we're probably going to be anchored with a lot of totals that are reflecting what we saw during the regular season. And so we may see, you know, a fair amount of unders early if there's an over adjustment, you may see some some overs in the next wave. So that those are things I'll look out for, but I'll be pretty quick to adjust on if my thesis is proven incorrect. Excellent. So, Drew, you always seem to have a pretty good read on when to buy a team's futures based on schedule and changes. Are there any teams that stand out right now in the futures market? There are there. And this is not a great answer, unfortunately, because they're not the long shots. Although I will say, I guess I I've been I've been kind of beating the same message into the back of my head for the entire NBA season, which is do not overreact to the regular season. You know, that the the teams that really are going to rise at the end of this is it's going to be the Nets in the East. It's going to be the Clippers and Lakers in the West. Don't overthink this. Don't worry about standing. Don't worry about, you know, path like those teams. They just they have the Premier players and oh, by the way, they haven't really gone through the same rigor as a lot of the other teams over the course of the regular season. Just based on they've been able to give these guys rest. Now they've been recovering from injury. The Lakers pretty obviously are not perfectly healthy. Even Anthony Davis last night, limping around against the Nets is a somewhat of a concern if you're a Lakers future holder, as I am. But, you know, but ultimately, I think the cream will rise here as I currently project the standings for the Western Conference. That does manifest the small edge on Phoenix and it comes entirely down to path. Phoenix is likely to draw the Warriors as the eighth seed by my numbers. And I think really what I'm saying is I think Phoenix gets the one ultimately over the jazz. I think the jazz are going to stubble here a little bit in the home stretch. Phoenix, I think it's the one. I expect them to draw the Warriors in the one eight matchup. The Warriors, you know, the public, beautiful spot for the public to get involved with the Warriors there may warp that series price a bit to where Phoenix is a value to bet in series there. Like fair series prices, probably about minus 700 minus 800 for the Suns there. I can see like a 400 or a 500 out there, which would be a fun, fun way to kind of just, you know, sweat a little heavy, heavy juice on round one of the playoffs. But I'll probably get involved with the Suns against the Warriors, if that's what we see. And then the four or five between the Nuggets and the Mavericks, potentially, is just that's those are two very flawed teams and whoever emerges from that series to take on the Suns in round two. The playoffs, I think, sets up favorably for the Suns to get to the Western Conference finals. And then, you know, potentially any path for any of these teams that ultimately avoids Lakers Clippers in round two is going to be huge. And if you can get to the Western Conference finals, if you're hosting the Western Conference finals, you know, and you're playing, let's say Lakers Clippers square off in round two, and that's just a battle to the death seven game series blood on the floor, kind of a situation. Then, you know, Phoenix, you know, kicking their feet up after dispatching the Nuggets in five or something like that and playing at home like that's that's a you're going to get a pretty pretty favorable start to that series. They could get a one or two game lead, and at that point, you can just come in heavy over the top on the on the on the on the Lakers or Clippers. So, as kind of a casual NBA fan, I'm a little surprised that Phoenix is at the top of the Western Division. We I think we talked on this show about how they kind of surged in the bubble last year and there was a lack of distraction and a bunch of young players that clearly clearly have added to their roster. Give us the quick take on what has happened with this team going from just getting into the bubble last year to the best record in the West. Yeah, but I think the bubble was hugely impactful for a lot of these young guys in terms of just, you know, taking them from, OK, you're an NBA player. You're making a bunch of money. You're having a lot of fun to, oh, you're winning. Like, this is this is this is fun. Like, forget about that. I, you know, forget about outside of, you know, the NBA world. Like, we're we're winning now. Like, this is real. And I think that that that that encouraged some buy-in from guys like Booker, who really needed to take a meaningful step forward in terms of how he plays defense, in terms of how he's willing to kind of share some of the offensive, you know, offensive roles. And then you add a guy like Chris Paul, who has just massive experience in this exact type of situation, taking a good young nucleus and, you know, elevating some of the play of the, you know, of the ancillary players like that was a perfect storm. And then the coach like Monty Williams, he gets buy-in from all these guys during the bubble, you know, he's now, you know, he's now understands, you know, what he's got in terms of talent and who, you know, whose roles and responsibilities, who thrives in, you know, given what task and what challenge and has buy-in from all the players. So it really was a perfect storm. And, you know, they they ended up with a pretty lucky draw. Schedule-wise, I mean, you know, we knew the Clippers were going to do a lot of load management resting. We didn't know that the Lakers were going to get as hurt as they ended up getting, but that certainly helped the Suns a lot in terms of kind of navigating the Pacific and getting the, you know, winning their division potentially. I know it's not sewn up just yet, but it looks likely to me. And yeah, it's been a pretty cool story. And again, at six to one to win the Western Conference, my strategy again is, you know, put that in your pocket now. If the if the path favors them to not to avoid Clippers and Lakers until the Western Conference finals, then just, you know, just be patient, wait for them to have a one nothing, two nothing lead in that series. And then they're they are then that series price is going to be like minus 600, you know, or minus 300, right? And then you can get pretty aggressive coming back the other way on on the Lakers or Clippers. And that's why the schedule was such a key part in betting futures, knowing when to buy in, knowing when to go reverse of that makes a lot of sense. Phoenix standing out to drew right now. You talked about part of the reason you like them is they may face the Warriors in the first round. So let's talk about some teams trying to make the playoffs here over the final five days. The Warriors minus 115 to make it as of right now at Fanadul Sportsbook. Couple of spots still have to be decided. Do you see any value in those markets as of right now? I do like the Warriors at minus 115. I give them a 60 percent shot, a little over 60, actually 62. So I have a decent edge on minus 115 to make it. Some of that is speculative in terms of how the you know, how they match up against the Lakers and whose Lakers are even going to have out there in that play and game. But I ultimately I would make the Warriors about four point five, actually five point favorites over whoever wins that nine, ten matchup if they were to lose to the Lakers and say the seven, eight or if they lose to the Portland Trailblazers in the seven, eight. So it's it's a that's a favorable look, but even more shocking. The Charlotte Hornets are plus 172. That's way off my number. I have the Hornets at almost 50 percent chance to get in. And when you think of the seven, eight matchup in particular, their take they likely would take on the Celtics in the seven, eight. All they got to do is win one game. And that seven, eight Celtics are without Jalen Brown. You go back to late April, Celtics were six point favorites over the Hornets. Hornets had a couple injuries in that game. Celtics had Jalen Brown. I wouldn't be surprised if plus 172 is the money line for the Hornets to win game one, which means, you know, you're basically betting plus 172 for them, you know, and then you get the free roll of the home second home game where they would host the likes of the presumably the Wizards or the Pacers. The Pacers really have fallen apart. I don't 100 percent know what kind of honest effort you're getting out of this team in terms of, you know, the way that their defense has just gone from, you know, middle of the pack to like clear 32nd in record time has been mind blowing. But I would expect that the Charlotte Hornets have better than the implied odds here to get into the mix of eight. And so one plus 172 is pretty interesting to me. That's worse than the Wizards and the Pacers who both have to win two games, presumably, which is is pretty shocking. We'll take it. Drew, you mentioned lack of effort. And this is actually something I want to bring up with this notion of tanking and teams that are out of the playoff hunt. They're looking for these high end picks. And, you know, the NBA is a competitive league. You know, you don't see spreads usually greater than 10. Are you seeing any value going against these teams at the very bottom towards this end of the season? Yeah, for sure. Without question, the the. From all-star break through today, the most actionable angle was identifying one of the tanking teams that performed well last time out and then, you know, giving them expecting about a 16th percentile performance next time they play. And so so basically, if you're using media and you're beating expectations, then the lines are fair. But if you're expecting them to come out in the 16th to 33rd percentile range, then there was usually like three or four points of value laying the chalk against whoever was taking on these tanking teams. And that just off the top of my head, that's been hitting at about a 75 percent clip going back to the all-star break because, you know, a lot of these teams, you know, they look at, you know, they have they haven't they give you an honest effort. They give you, you know, they have a full hard perform and, you know, they just they they are not interested in rallying the next time out. They're not trying to build momentum. They're not trying to accidentally win too many games. They're not trying to take themselves out of lottery position. Even a team like Minnesota, surprisingly, who if they don't get a top three pick, that pick goes to the Warriors, you know, they're they're playing hard and I wouldn't put them in that same conversation. But teams like Oklahoma City, they're at the very top of that list. Houston is in the mix there and then Detroit, Cleveland and Orlando, those five teams, any time I have seen them give you an honest effort on a given night, I've gone pretty aggressively against them next time out and it's been working out like a charm. That's awesome. OK, so we're fading the tankers and buying into the Warriors and the Hornets to make the playoffs. Talked a lot about the Western Conference already. So let's talk about the Eastern Conference and try to decide what we see in the futures market right there. The Nets, even money to win the East 76ers or plus 300, the Bucks plus 330, you talked about not overthinking the regular season, but I feel like the sportsbooks aren't right now based on the number they have in the Nets. Do you see value in the Nets at plus 100 or is there someone else stands out to you here or is it a stay away market for you right now? Yeah, I'm going to hold my nose and take the Nets at the best price I can find them is what I think it comes down to. Kevin Durant has been unimpressive since coming back from injury, particularly in crunch time games against good teams. However, we haven't seen him be playing with James Harden really at all this season. But Kyrie Irving looks extremely sharp. I've been impressed with his level of play over the last month or so. If Durant is willing to shed some of the offensive responsibilities in the fourth quarter and Harden is even close to 100 percent, there's really no one that matches up well with this Nets team at all in the playoffs. And, you know, I know Harden has a propensity to no show in the playoffs. I know that, you know, Steve Nash is a completely unproven coach. And, you know, by the way, he's, you know, Dantonie, his assistant hasn't exactly covered himself in glory with playoff adjustments. So it's it's there are questions for sure, swirling around the Nets. But they're by far the way the most talented, starting five, crunch time five. And I look at the Philadelphia 76ers and I see some pretty clear limitations when that second unit is on the floor. There is that it is very lopsided, all defense, no offense. And then, you know, Doc Rivers obviously in a in a game seven situation has had a difficult time getting his team across the line to put it politely. So the sixers are a little bit of a, you know, a little bit of a buyer beware for me, especially at the current prices. And then the Bucks, of course, you know, I am, I will fully admit that I am wearing some bias against them, considering how they treated me last year after having just spectacular prices on the box, spectacular prices on the box, heading into that playoff series. And they go up against the heat and they never had a chance, you know, and I hang a lot of that on Budenholzer still. They obviously they bring in Drew Holiday. They make a couple of roster moves, which were positives. In fact, it looks like General Management decided, hey, we're going to give you less depth to force you to play your players, your starters more minutes in the playoffs, which may make sense. But I'm more concerned about what we saw in that heat series last year, where number one, if you can take away transition opportunities for the Bucks offensively, their offense gets stagnant and it looks bad. And then you, if you, if you want to break down what the Bucks do well defensively, they sell out to stop you at the rim, clog the paint, and they give you wide open looks from three. Again, you know, considering how often the open three has gone in this season, if that is even remotely continues in the playoffs, then they're susceptible to an upset, I would say. And, you know, if they, ultimately, if they get it done, if they get over the hump, if they beat a team like the Nets in the seven game series, all the power, all the credit in the world to you, but I'm going to need to see it to believe it before I ever get involved with the Bucks and Budenholzer in particular. So, Drew, I do need to ask, I understand, you know, Adam Stanko was on the show saying that a lot of people in the NBA think the Nets are going to win. But I do have to, like, how is a team featuring Jayne Tartt and Kyrie Irving going to play defense when it matters? I can't imagine that they will play defense to be positive. Isn't this a problem? You would think. They're just going to outrun you? I'll score you? They're just going to outrun you. They're just going to outscore you. I guess, I mean, like, let's talk about their path. So, they probably draw the Celtics in the two seven. Celtics, not a great match up for the Nets that's really in any way, shape, or form. I would expect that there are some competitive moments in a lot of these games, but their ability to turn on the afterburners offensively, particularly when Harden is on the floor is just masterful to watch. And one of the things that the Nets have been lacking since Harden has been out, which has been kind of led to some of their struggles led to some people kind of looking for a reason to doubt them is that Harden can slow the game down to a crawl and get three points one way or the other, either by getting an open shot for himself, a teammate, or getting to the line for three free throws. And that sort of ability to really play with pace in the crunch time scenario, that has a tendency to really throw off the other team. And if your other team is the likes of Boston, who has had some offensive struggles this year, particularly when Tatum's been off the floor, and now that Brown is out of the mix entirely, the Bucks who from a half court offense standpoint can get extremely stagnant and the Sixers who have a second team that is a fifth percentile offense in the NBA. Those are all huge questions, huge problems, if Harden does what we've seen him do time and time out against overmatched opponents and just slows the game down like that. And I guess the defense, the idea that defense doesn't matter in the NBA playoffs is tough to swallow, especially considering what the Heat and the Lakers did last year. But, you know, it's we're not that far removed from, you know, the Steph Curry, you know, the Steph Curry, Kevin Durant warriors who were just absolutely untouchable offensively and, you know, they they they could have won some of those those titles, particularly the finals against the Cavs, you know, defense as optional. So it's I think it's possible. But those teams were significantly better than what this Nets teams put us out there. Like, I mean, the Warriors had teams that were top five defensive efficiency. I don't know if Katie was on any of those, but it just, you know, when you have those two guys out there, it just seems like there's going to be problems. Yeah, I think Hardin is a little underappreciated for his defense. Clearly, he's not a plus defender, but he's not a huge minus. And then similarly, Kairi, you know, any time any time you're looking specifically at guard defense, I tend to down weight that relative to, you know, what your your ability to protect the rim. And for the most part, you know, where the Nets lack defensive quality, it to me looks like an effort level. Mostly like they're not switching, especially aggressively. They're not, you know, their defensive scheme is not especially complicated to break down, you know, and they're giving up advantage looks to their opponents. Presumably, a lot of that is fixable if you can turn up the intensity. And that's kind of what we have seen teams like this do in the playoffs. And it's been made a meaningful difference now. If this is still, you know, it's still speculative and still, you know, it's tough for me to look past a guy who is as good as Kevin Durant is, you know, guys as good as James Harden is, you know, and say that anyone, you know, will match up with them score for score across this Eastern conference, particularly where I think the Nets are going to find a huge, huge issue is the finals. They're going up against a Kauai led Clippers. They're going up against a LeBron led Lakers. They're going to be in trouble. And most of that just comes down to ability to kind of dictate the way the game is played in the final quarter. And, you know, guy like Kauai finding his shot anywhere he wants it on the floor at any time in the fourth quarter against a team like the Nets is going to be a problem. Similarly, LeBron, you know, getting his getting his way in the fourth quarter of games against the Nets, I could see being a problem. So I think ultimately the Nets are much less concerned about them emerging from the Eastern conference. But your points are valid and they probably do show up in meaningful ways in the finals. So is plus two ten a forgiving enough number for you to actually bet the Nets to win the finals or do your concerns make it to the point where you want to avoid them in that market and just focus all your bankroll on them winning the East? The only real reason to get involved with the Nets in the finals instead of keying them for the East is if there is an especially bad path for the Lakers. Like, let's say for whatever reason the chips land and they're in a three six matchup against the Clippers round one. All of a sudden, I'm a lot more interested in the Nets to win the finals. Right, right. If they're basically if if either the Lakers or the Clippers, you know, have an end up with a especially difficult path, then the Nets become valuable finals wise. Otherwise, I'm only only have eyes for them for the East, honestly. So do you find any other value in the championship market right now or is a situation where you want to see how the seeds shake out and then react to that and then dive into the championship market? Yeah, I think I think you can you're going to get your best price that you're going to see all season on the Lakers to win the title right now. OK, five fifties as good as it's going to be. I can I again, if they end up against the Clippers in round one, that's obviously not good. But I don't think I don't think plus five fifty turns into plus seven hundred all of a sudden. Right. And from basically just kind of reading the market and seeing the way that these numbers have moved over the season, it's pretty obvious that a little bit of little tics in, you know, making the Lakers and the Nets a little bit more, you know, a little bit more enticing have have generated decent action, like they're getting they're they're taking, you know, they're writing significant bets with small moves on these teams from what I can tell you. So I doubt that we see better than plus five fifty, which that I'm inclined to get more involved here with the Lakers, a plus five fifty and, you know, dream matchup for them. Jazz round one you jazz around one in the two seven Clippers round two and in the three seven and then Sons round, you know, Western Conference finals in the in the. And I think ultimately they can get through that path barring significant injury at Anthony Davis. And again, identifying the right time to buy a big part of your process and a big part of why we have you on the show to talk about all this stuff. That is Drew Dinsick. Make sure you follow him on Twitter at whale underscore capper and check him out on the bet the edge podcast for NBAC Sports Edge. Also can still find the deep dive podcast as well. Drew, we appreciate it. Thank you for taking time out of your very busy schedule. Talk to us for today. Good luck with you for the remainder of the regular season and good luck in the playoffs as well. All right. Thanks for having me, guys. Best of luck covering the future. Big thank you once again to Drew Dinsick for swinging by and breaking down his NBA Futures thoughts. And I think that it makes sense. The Lakers would be plus five fifty right now, given that LeBron's banged up. A.D. is not fully healthy. But as Drew was talking about after we got done recording, like he couldn't get plus two fifty at one point on this team, much less, you know, plus five fifty. So it's identifying those spots to buy. And it seems like he's pretty into LeBron being at full health as of right now, even though he hasn't come back yet. Yeah, exactly. I mean, LeBron's played two games in the last however many months, right? So I got to think that's what the market's considering right now. And maybe they're saving them, you know, maybe they're not rushing them back. But then, you know, I mean, being the 7C, you don't have any ways of easing your way into the playoffs either. So I think that's just what leads to the massive intrigue with the playoffs this year, right? I mean, the best player on the planet has been hurt. You know, Kenny come back like he did last year and play really well and win the title. Yeah, of course, it's possible. You also have to remember last year that they ducked the Clippers and the Bucks, the two teams that had were considered the other two primary contenders going into those playoffs. So just all kinds of story lines. I think it's going to be pretty cool. Yeah, it'll be fun to watch and I think that with LeBron, whenever there have been situations where we have doubted him for whatever reason, it's kind of been a situation where LeBron has said, no, I'm still pretty good. So we'll see how that plays out. Did Drew talk you into any futures for the NBA here? Whether it be a Nets in the East, any Lakers futures? Do you talk into anything here, Ed? Yeah, I mean, I think I like his logic on Charlotte sitting there at the eight spot in the way you can kind of hedge that as well. Obviously, I haven't had time to do anything about it yet, but I think that kind of sticks out most. Yeah. And no, I mean, I'm definitely looking forward to betting some NBA playoffs. I'll give Adam Stanko a call before I before I bet anything else. But yeah, no, I think I think the Charlotte one from what he said sticks out in my mind. Yeah, plus 172 to make the playoffs ever, Charlotte. So that should be good. And maybe some more covering the future NBA talk with you once we get into the playoffs or maybe not yet. We'll see. I'm certainly not going to originate any number. Right. For sure. And I kind of depends. There's kind of some interesting opportunities to bet the NBA playoffs when you see a mismatch between the Game One spread and the series price, which, of course, is more complicated this year because of reduced home court and blah, blah, blah. But so so anyways, when you see that kind of mismatch, you could potentially bet it, but I don't know if that's going to fall on a Wednesday when we're recording. Right. So but I definitely, you know, if I do see any of those mismatch prices, I'm going to write about it in my email newsletter. So OK, so that's another reason to subscribe to the email newsletter at the power right, for sure. For my cover in the future for this week, I want to talk some NFL win totals because those are up right now on fan dual sportsbook for the first time. And they'll likely be a focus for me for the next couple of episodes trying to dabble in this win total market because I am building out my win total projections for the first time and want to see what they can do. Wanted to dive in here first by taking some risk and talking about the Patriots under nine wins, which is even money right now at Fan Dual Sports Book. I currently have the Patriots offense being better this year. I'm projecting them to step up from where they were last year and given the improvements they made with their past catchers. I still have them as being a top five offensive liney without Joe Tooney. Their skill guys are better. Great offensive line. It's a better situation what they had last year. Plus, if Cam's healthy or if Mac Jones pans out, that could help too. But even when I project their passing offense to be better than it was last year, I still have them at 7.6 wins right now. Part of that is because their opponents have improved to the Dolphins win total is nine and a half at Fan Dual Sports Book. I had them at 9.6. The Jets win total is 6.0. I had them at 6.0 as well. I also like the bills more than their 10 and a half win total. But it's minus 170 on the over. Tough for me to bet them with that much juice on it. So basically what my numbers are saying is that the AFC East will be pretty good this year with the Jets and the Dolphins meeting our expectations, the bills potentially exceeding them. That puts the Patriots in a pretty tough spot. It's not a super easy schedule. If you look at their additional Week 17 game, that's against Dallas. My numbers like Dallas a lot this year. They get the Browns and the Chargers as their flex opponents. I think both those teams great out pretty well, too, with good passing efficiency. So it's a tough schedule combined with what I think is I think is obviously would do to think of as fair. I think it's fair off or fair pessimism around or skepticism is the best way to phrase that fair skepticism around what their offense will do this year. That's enough for me to actually take the dive here and plug under nine wins at plus 100. They have to go 500 over 500 to get you nine wins. And I'm skeptical that they get there. So I do want the Patriots under nine wins at plus 100 is my first win total bet of the year. And we didn't ask Kevin specifically about the Patriots win total. But it seemed like he echoed my thoughts last week in being more glowing about Washington and being more measured with the praise of New England at their gains. I know you haven't run your numbers yet for this year, but like what are your thoughts in the Patriots given all the changes they've made. But to me, I think there are still reasons for questions there. Yeah, I mean, I think I think there are reasons for questions. I don't know how much better the offense is going to get. I mean, you're probably going to be in a platoon situation with both Cam Newton and Mac Jones. How's that going to go? I don't know. I mean, I'm very high on Mac Jones, but all NFL rookies struggle, rookie quarterback struggle. Right. I guess the thing, you know, if you're betting under right now, the thing I would worry about is regression on their defense, you know, positive regression, right? So you had a lot of guys. You had a secondary Stephon Gilmore, Jonathan Jones, J.C. Jackson that was lights out in 2019 and then really took a plunge last year more so than we could kind of ever expect. So, you know, what's Belichick going to do on the defensive side of the ball? I mean, if those guys play like they did in 2019, I would not, you know, I would not go under right total. So big question mark there. Those are the types of things that stand out. And you mentioned that, you know, I haven't run my model yet. I actually don't have a model for NFL win totals in the sense that like I don't have a way. I use market win totals to do kind of my preseason ratings and that's been an also crucial part of my model all year long for NFL, but I actually don't take data from last year and to project out what a rating for teams should be this year. I found there's just too much regression to the mean to do that in any way that I personally know how. So so there's no model in that sense for for betting NFL win totals. It's it's very different in college where right you have a model. So, you know, there's actually no NFL model to be run. Well, I will use market information and kind of looking forward to week one to to betting those things. So with regards to the defense, I think that's a very fair thing to bring up because like they were an outlier two years ago. And it weren't as good last year, but looking at what I have, I had them rank 10th in schedule adjusted past defense for this upcoming year. That's based on a lot of manual tinkering. I will say that it's not like a super scientific process, but based on additions they've made based on guys who opted out coming back, stuff like that, I had them 10th in past defense. So that's still pretty good. And that's the second biggest component in the model after passing offense. Sure. So 10th might be conservative. They could outperform that for sure, definitely. But I think that 10th is still viewing them as being a positive for that team overall. Yeah, I think 10th would be positive. Right. I mean, they were a definitive second in 2019. They were maybe last for good parts of last season before they started playing a little bit better. Towards the end of the season. So. I think everything is with the secondary there. What can Belichick do on that side of the ball? And it'll be interesting to see. But being high on the AFC East in general has not been a profitable, profitable thought process previously. We'll see if that can change this time around. That is all that we have for today here on Covering the Spread. Ed, you mentioned might be plugging some stuff in your email newsletter. What else is going on for you over at the Power Rank? Yeah, no, in the email newsletter actually this will go out later this week. But writing a little bit about closing line value. And this is not actually work that originates with me. I'm not a professional better. I'm a quant that that bets. So I just want to be clear about that. And in terms of talking about things that betters really care about in terms of closing line value, I really rely on other people who are pros. So it was part of my learning process of to understand exactly what it exactly why you should think about closing line value. And in particular, like what percentage of games you want to have closing line value to think that that you're going to be profitable in the long run. Is it 60? Is it 70? Is it 90? Right. So you can check that out at thepowerrank.com in my free email newsletter. OK, anything over on the football analytics show that we can check out as well? Not this week, but I am actually very excited about the next two weeks. So I will let you know that. Subscribe now so you get notifications for when those go live on the football analytics show. Make sure you follow Ed on Twitter as well at the Power Rank. I am at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the Fanduel Podcast Network at Fanduel Podcast. Big thank you to Drew Dinsick for swinging by and breaking down his MBA futures thoughts. Get a link to his new podcast in the show notes up on Numberfire.com and follow him on Twitter at whale underscore capper. Big thank you to Calvin Theobald, our video producer for running the video side of things here today. Thank you Cal as always. And thank you to everyone for tuning in. Good luck to you with your MBA futures bets if you're betting on that crazy, crazy Sunday or anything else. We'll talk to you once again in the very near future. This has been covering the spread right here on the Fanduel Podcast Network.