 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the morning markets kickoff with your host Tommy O'Brien. Good morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN Wednesday morning, 9.06 a.m. as we come into Fed Day folks, announcement 2 p.m. Eastern time today. Press conference at 2.30 to follow. Markets accelerating off of the lows we had yesterday. Make a low of 38.43 at about 1 p.m. Eastern time. We're up about 50 points from there. You're up about 20 points from where we were at the close yesterday. S&Ps inching towards 3900 right now. NASDAQ 100, we're at about 11,971. You were as low as about 11,830, so you're up more than 1% from the lows just yesterday. Dow up 136 points right now, 30,937 in the Dow and the Russell, up by about 12. Bitcoin back above 19,000 this morning, 19,225. Crude up a buck 40 at 85.36, you've got the gold contract right now. Up $10 at 16.81. We jumped to notes and bonds on an all-important Fed Day and you have the 10-year right now. Positive by 3 ticks, but you see the give back right there, even in the last, what is that, half hour or so, the 10-year trading lower by about 5 or 6 ticks right now. You jump over. We're talking about yields, man, 3.555, 3.56% almost, the yield on the 10-year as we come in right now to Fed Decision Day and we jumped to the VIX Volatility Index right now, 26.91. We were as high as almost 28 when you had those market lows overnight, 28.45, the highs of Friday morning. We jump around to the action right now and let's start it off with a headline. Time to hike and hammer home hawkish message, say that three times fast, right? The dot plot forecast, now this one's an interesting one, folks, how long are those dot plots going to push things out? I read one article this morning talking about restrictive policy might be here through 2025. Restrictive policy through 2025, that's a long time from right now, man. Prices will hone in on the policymaker's projections of monetary tightening in the dot plot for year's end and 2023, I mean, the shorter duration that you are out, the more accurate they're probably going to be, pricing in rates peaking near 4.5% next March. But the Fed, they've been a vague about their terminal rate plans. When are they going to end? How long are they going to stay there? They're probably going to hike by 70 basis points. Right now, 20% chance of 100 basis points coming at you. You got different people though, Robert Dent of Nomura, he's going big. He's saying that's actually the likely outcome, which would put it over 50%. At the last meeting in July, Powell left the door open to such a move. We would not hesitate to make an even larger move than we did today if the committee were to conclude that was appropriate. What he's always been saying all along, folks, is that he's leaving everything open. He's going to let the data decide everything, which is why that CPI data was so important when the market accelerated lower on the Tuesday CPI data. Now, FOMC may project slow growth, higher unemployment. When you're talking about where you are, now 2022, let's just look at PCE, or yeah, PCE inflation and core. 2022, 5.2%. They're looking for some pretty dramatic come downs there. In terms of PCE, you're talking about 2.6% by the year forecasted growth in the Fed's goal, PCE, 2.6%. You look at the core number, PCE is at 2.8%. Fed funds rate, well, you're talking about barely waning in terms of, we're talking about a number of 2.5% in 2020, that's longer term, yes, 2.88% is where you would be on that number for 2025. It's almost tough to digest how high the percentages could be for how long. Yeah, so the updated summary of economic projections is going to include the policymaker's first forecast for 2025, so that's part of the discussion there is what they're going to talk about. Well, most of the investors will focus, will be on the rate forecast for this year and next because everything can change so dramatically. Projections may also show the FOMC expects to keep rates higher for longer, with rates coming down only to 3.6% in 2024 and 2.9%. This is the Fed in 2025, I hope the economy is doing well if they're still at rates at that level, and you're talking about almost three years from where we're at right now. Yeah, with inflation persisting, the Fed could project inflation returning to its 2% target only in 2025, I think it's going to be a real low slide, I think it's going to be a real low slide, okay, 2%, in terms of the final 1% from 3% to 2%, from 4% to 2%, nonetheless, it's going to be a slow one in 2025 is not out of the realm at all. It's likely to reiterate that recent indicators of economic growth have softened. I would say so, man, you got some big numbers that just came out in terms of that CPI number from the last time that you had the Fed out there. They've stepped up its shrinking of its 8.8 trillion balance sheet to an annual pace of 1.1 trillion. Some Fed officials have favored the sale of mortgage-backed securities as part of the effort. There's going to be a lot going on in the press conference, man, and the one thing I will say is sometimes this market has a habit of getting ahead of a Fed decision. I think I even saw a headline, maybe I haven't pulled it up. You take a look at the daily, sometimes the accelerations have bottomed out. That is one instance. On the March meeting, that's when you got your first acceleration, man. The market accelerates into that March meeting. You're able to bounce up to 4,600, and then what happens, man, all of the air comes out of the room and you trade down 1,000 S&P points after that bounce. Doesn't mean the bounce will hold, okay, but we have traded lower into the Fed meeting that has provided some of the bounces when we've eventually gotten there because the market gets ahead of things, man. Now there is your CPI data, folks. You drop off from about 4,175 to 3,950, so the market has lost about 300 points since we got that CPI data, but all we've done is trade back to September 7th. That's another way to put it, man, right? If you said you were coming into Fed Day on September 7th, so two weeks ago, exactly, okay? If you said, in between that time, we're going to get the CPI data that we got. Where do you think the market's going to be when we come into a Fed decision with the S&P trading at 3,900 on September 7th, and we're going to be trading at about 3,900 on September 21st, and here's what the CPI data is going to reveal in the two weeks in between that time. I think many of us would say that the market's probably going to be lower than where it was on September 7th if we got the CPI number we did, which we did. And yet, here we find ourselves, folks. Let's jump around to some of the fang stocks. We'll kick it off with Apple. Apple, higher by about 30 cents today. Apple catching a little bit of a bid. Apple almost traded all the way back to its 618 of the entire run higher from June up to the highs of August. You're back off to a low of about 148.37. You're up to 157.26 so far this morning. We jump over to Amazon shares, trading up a bid at 122.61. You see the difference there. Not quite as big of a bounce at all when you're looking at Amazon shares compared to what Apple had going on there in a big way. We could have some retail sales problems, folks, if you have economy problems. And that's going to impact Amazon. Apple has their issues as well. I talked about it earlier this week, though. Apple, and they make a lot of money, a lot of money, folks, off the premium phones that they're selling. Maybe the more affluent individuals might handle a recession even a little bit better than most. Stay tuned, folks. We're coming back with our man, Kevin Hicks from TD Ameritrade Network. Vista Gold owns and operates the largest undeveloped gold project in Australia, the Mount Todd Gold Project. Vista Gold just completed their feasibility study, resulting in a 7 million ounce gold reserve. Vista Gold has all major permits approved and has retained CIBC Capital Market Assistance in evaluating alternatives and in completing an accretive transaction. Vista Gold trades on the NYSE American and TSX under the ticker symbol VGC. Vista Gold executing a strategy to create shareholder value. You'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to. And you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years' experience as a day trader. 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We get S&P Futures up by 23 right now, NASDAQ 100. You're up by about 60 points, the Dow Bop 161. Let's jump over to our man, Kevin Hinks. Every trading day, folks, 12 noon Eastern time right here on Tiger TV. The TD Ameritrade Network with Fast Market. Your host, Kevin Hinks. Tom White, the whole team at TD Ameritrade Network. They walk you through the day's market action, folks. They're talking defined risk. They're walking you through hypothetical trade setups, using options in every trade that they're going over. Defined risk in quite a market and we got a big day. Kevin Hinks, good morning. Good morning, Tommy or Brian. Yeah, it's a big day and it's interesting. The Fed is going to dominate today's news. But there's some other news out there that a normal day would move markets like Vladimir Putin. And what he's doing over in Russia right now would be a market moving event. However, it looks like Jerome Powell is going to dominate today's trading with. The question is, which Jerome Powell is going to show up, Tommy, is it the market calming Jerome Powell? Is it the delivery of the news that the market's like or is it the Jackson Hole Jerome Powell and the one who's harsh and short and to the point and talk, use his word like pain? That's what the market's trying to figure out right now, Tommy. It's a tough one, man. And in my head, I try and go over, you know, he said throughout all of this, right, that he's going to be data dependent, as I'm sure every bed chairman or chairwoman would. But I think it's so important right now. And so you're going to get a glimpse of it in terms of where they go right now and the messaging, Kevin. But, you know, I'm reading a lot this morning about even there's going to be projections for 2025 for the first time. The projections have been so wrong for so long almost going into, you know, the last year, how this has persisted, the word transitory and all of that. So we're going to get what we're going to get today. It seems like we're going to get a very big hike, right? The Fed is probably going to be pretty hawkish in my opinion. And then where do we go from there? Does it become about the next CPI data, Kevin? Or do we just go right to those next data points to see? Because when I think about projections, and I know the market's going to care a lot more about the next year projections, because they're probably more reliable, but you're talking about going out so far that I feel like if we're dealing with inflation that's anywhere near where we're at right now and we still have an unemployment rate that's in the ballpark of 4%, it seems like that we're going to have a big problem right now with the Fed being a big giant in the room for a foreseeable future. Do you, what's your take on that kind of analysis of things? Remember something, even Jerome Powell has mentioned while standing at a podium, that the projections going forward, the dot plot are not reliable. So I wouldn't look on any of that. If you're trading these markets on a daily basis, you don't care about 2025. You don't care. You care about the data that's coming out right now and the market reactions to that data. Now, Jerome Powell will set the tone, I think for the next few months or weeks in his comments. But beyond that, you have no idea, none of us do what this market's going to do. So trade the news today. Don't worry about a dot plot out to 2025 because frankly, they've been discounted by the Fed chair himself. So if he does count some, I do too, Tommy. Yeah, that's why I asked you the question, man. And it's gonna be a wild one for sure. Now, what's your take on trading into the Fed meeting? I was talking about as I kicked off the program, you brought it up many times earlier than the year. I can't believe we're already six months past it. But when we came into that March meeting, which is where things really lifted off in a big way in terms of the rates going higher, you actually had the market, Kevin, at that point had traded from 4,800 down to about 4,100. We got quite a reprieve up to 4,600 following that March meeting and then the S&P's traded down 1,000 points. But with the pullback we've seen from the CPI, do you think part of a potentially caucus message is already built in to an S&P trading down almost 300 points from where we were just last Tuesday? Well, 75 basis points is surely baked in. But Jerome Powell's comments are baked in, right? Which Jerome Powell shows up today and how does he talk about the overall market? Cause let's face it, Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole was different than we had seen him historically. So if he takes on that tone, this market is gonna react to that. Now, Tommy, could there be a relief for Ali no matter what Jerome Powell says? Yes, there absolutely could be. And you've gotta be cognizant of that as well. Is there does relief come out of this or is it more pressure on the overall market? And I don't know that yet, Tommy. I gotta find out what he says and how he says it, frankly. As I like to say, man, we're gonna know a lot more when I talk to you tomorrow in 24 hours. You know, right now about this market. With that in mind, Kevin, what are you guys talking about beyond the obvious coming up today on Fast Market at 12? We're gonna talk about garden restaurants coming out with earnings. We're gonna talk about, obviously, we'll cover the Fed extensively today, but we'll also look at Lenar and we'll look at KB Homes, two of the home builders coming out with earnings, but like Bolio's gonna do presentation on Darden Restaurant Group. They're coming out with earnings before the open tomorrow morning. Darden Restaurant's trading right now, 132. Good old Olive Garden, along with a couple others that I enjoy out there for that. Capital Grill? Season 52. I'm sorry, what'd you say? Say it again for me, Kevin. Capital Grill and Season 52. Yeah, they've got a big portfolio of restaurants. It's pretty cool. We've talked about it before. I forgot about Capital Grill. I knew Season 52. They do a bunch of restaurants, along with Olive Garden, some good pasta and breadsticks, right? Kevin, we appreciate it, man. Taking the time on a busy day and we look forward to the program at 12 o'clock today. We'll talk to you tomorrow, man. Thanks for having me on, Tommy. Have a great day. Always a pleasure. Folks, tune in every trading day. Today, I'm sure it's gonna be a good one, especially talking about the Fed. You talk about volatility. You talk about a day of volatility. Today might be that day. S&Ps right now, folks. Up about 21 points, excuse me. And yeah, Darden Restaurants catching quite a bit off their last earnings, right? July, June 22nd, around the last low of 110. You're up a solid 20% from where you were then at 132. And yes, they have Olive Garden Capital Grill Season 52. If you're not familiar with Season 52, you ever find one, folks? And I don't know in any Darden restaurant stock at all, but I am a fan of Season 52. It's a healthier restaurant. So a lot of their meals, I don't think there's like a calorie number. There used to be, every meal they had used to be like 475 or 575 calories. Just a healthy conscious restaurant in a fine dining atmosphere where they have a bunch of good wine. They have a guy on the piano or a girl on the piano playing some tunes while you're in there, live music. And so it was a cool atmosphere, a cool concept, and you eat healthy. And it's phenomenal food on top of it, man. I would go in there and you would be able to get a filet. So you're getting a steak with vegetables and you're getting mashed potatoes, not even the cauliflower mashed potatoes, okay? And we would ask even the bartender, the server sometimes, you know, this stuff's so good. You're getting a steak, you're getting, now you're getting the very trimmed up filet, right? Not as much fat on a filet. Filets aren't really that calorie intensive because there's very little fat on them. Just a lot of lean meat. But what do they do in its entirety in that restaurant to keep things as healthy as possible? Very little cream or butter, if not none at all. Then that's what they said. So the mashed potatoes, they're seasoned well. Very little cream or butter. Cream or butter, folks? Pretty calorie intensive, just like peanut butter. Love them, calorie intensive for sure. All right, folks, we got the open coming up. We're up at 18 points now. 19 points in the SMPs. As we come into the opening bell of Fed Day, we have a decision about four and a half hours from right now. Stay tuned, folks. I'll be right back. Time of booming inflation. We are purchasing powers eroded. 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For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com. Welcome back, folks. We've got markets open and you have the S&P popping a bit. You're up 22 points right now with 38.95 and you see from where we were yesterday, though, you're talking about just trading back just above where we were at noon Eastern time, maybe, on yesterday, let alone well off the highs we had early yesterday morning. We're approaching 3900 NASDAQ 100. You're up by 48 points right near 12,000 Dow right now, just near 31,000 as well, 30,974. We jump around. Kevin mentioned it, man. We'll jump to Putin, Putin. So I saw one of my friends was sharing one of our group chats. I think the Russian stock market was down like 9% in the last two days and they were saying that the oligarchs know something. And there proceeded to be many, many articles written over the overnight talking about what exactly was going on there and Putin is mobilizing more troops and wields Ukraine nuclear threat. They're gonna call up as many as 300,000 reservists after losses. Things are escalating to put it lightly, folks. Putin declared a partial mobilization, calling up 300,000 reservists in a major escalation. So Bloomberg puts it of his flagging invasion of Ukraine, which he portrayed as a fight to the death with the US and its allies. Not good, man. Any other day, this would be absolutely dominating if we weren't in Fed hysteria right now. As Russia moves to annex-occupied parts of the territory, which is now the plan, Putin also renewed his warnings of a nuclear threat when the territorial integrity of our country is threatened. We will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. This is not a bluff. Well, you never know until it actually is or is not, unfortunately. So it's not clear whether the mobilization in the country's first since the Nazi invasion of World War II will be enough to slow Ukraine's advances on the battlefield, right? Man, it's pretty intense. When you talk about the possibilities that are popping up here, yeah. So that is in the fray with the geopolitics of China right now and the geopolitics of Russia, man. Not getting a lot of press because the Fed is on their hike in cycle that they're on, man. But in any other world, if we were not in a restrictive Fed cycle with inflation at 8.5%, Russia and China would be getting much more coverage, I think, than they're getting for the geopolitical risks that are popping up. We'll jump to mortgage demand rises for the first time in six weeks, despite the higher interest rates. Interesting, right? The average increase to 6.25% folks, 6.25%. Applications to refinance actually rose for the week, although still 83% lower than the same week a year ago. Maybe people think if they need to refinance, they need that money, they need that equity out of that house right now before potentially the equity goes down even more if the housing market pulls back and it's worth it. You can always refinance in the future too. That's the thing, right? A lot of times people think mentally, oh, geez, if I refinance now, I'm at 6.25% and listen, there's a possibility rates aren't going back down to where they were, okay? I get that. There's a possibility the rates are gonna be higher for three, four, five years. There's a possibility that the rates that we just lived through for the last 10 years we might not see ever again for that type of duration. I get that, okay? But rates will come back down from where they are right now, they will. So you will have an ability to refinance. You probably won't be locking in 6.25%. But guess what, man? Back in the early 80s when I was born, I was getting savings bonds. Born in the year 1980 that I think were pushing 17% yield on that savings bond. So don't say it can't happen. It is possible. You refinancing at that rate, you're giving up probably a much lower rate to access that equity. But nonetheless, that's the decision to have right now. And that's the decision people are facing, right? Which is why it's slowing down the economy. It's that simple. So applications were up 10%. Mortgage applications to purchase a home that was for refinancing rose 1% for the week, but with 30% lower than the same week a year ago, buyers are now seeing less competition in today's pricey market. So some may be jumping in when they have the chance, right? Interesting. It's a lot harder to get a mortgage right now. So if you're willing to get that mortgage right now, you might be able to actually buy a house because there's less competition. Maybe you're the one who wins out in your refinance in three, four, five years and you make up for what you did on that mortgage rate. But yeah, it showed the average rate on the 30 year fixed rates just below 6.5%, man. They're even higher, of course. 6.5% on a mortgage right now. I mean, my dad and Bessford do a show on Fridays, folks. They talk about it. I think they were talking about it last week, or maybe it was Jacob doing the show with Bessford. The statistics, or maybe it was a couple of weeks ago with my dad and Bessford, the statistics in terms of what your buying power is, folks, it's almost cut in half in terms of monthly payments, depending on what you're talking about, when you add in that the houses have risen so much. So we'll see where we go from there. All right, let's jump around and see how some of the stocks are opening this morning as we hold positive prices. Amazon dips a bit, down one tenth percent. We jump over to Apple, up about eight tenths percent. Apple can't hold Apple down, man. Microsoft shares this morning, you're up about six tenths percent right now. Let's see how Tesla's trading. Basically flat, we jumped to some of the growth stocks arc. They're giving it back down about 1.1. They're gonna have a volatile day, as usual, when rates are in question, Zoom shares. Basically flat so far. We jump over to Roku, down 1.1% right now. DraftKings, another one that's always volatile for growth stocks. DraftKings off 1.9%. Cathie Woods into Teledoc a lot, down 1%. Well, some of these growth stocks, they're getting hit right now. Let's see how Peloton's trading. They came out with their rowing machine for $3,000, right? And they are now down below $9.50, man. Look at this thing. So you give back everything you were yesterday. You were 10, 20 yesterday, folks, right? And you just give up 70 cents for a $10 stock. Set five, six percent, $10 and 20 cents. So yeah, I don't know how Peloton, I mean, the recurring revenue is everything for that company. That's all I'll say, because if you're talking about selling exercise equipment, I mean, is there a public company, you know, that sells everything from P90X to Bowflex? Some of them are big companies, but they're not a big company like Peloton, man, as they are priced in for some future growth that is pretty bananas. All right, let's jump around to some of the currencies on Fed Day. We jump as we tease real quick everything. And we'll leave this one because we're talking to our man, Teddy Kakes, as we jump around, folks, look at the dollar on a weekly, man. You're talking about from May of last year at 89 to 110, we're making new highs with the dollar surging higher. Look at that, right? Overnight to 110.77 right now on the dollar index. We jumped to commodities, crude sitting at about 85 bucks and you get the gold contract right now. Gold, up $10 right now, even with some dollar strength. See all the yen straight right now on that news as well. And yen back at about 144 right now. Interesting to see the dollar up about $10 as you have the yen actually continuing to rise, probably pushing near those highs recently on the dollar yen. The market's giving it up a little bit. Nasdaq 100, barely in the green by about 20. S&Ps off by about 15. We just gave up about 10 points since we opened on the S&P. Let's jump over the Vixie, how we're trading right now. Volatility index at 26.84. We jumped to notes and bonds, chopping right at around 114 right now with a yield on the 10-year of about 3.55%. All right folks, stay tuned. We're gonna take a quick break. We'll be coming back with our man, Teddy Kekstat, writes the Tiger Forex report. We'll be talking some Forex. We'll be talking some crude oil. We'll be talking some yields on Fed Day folks. Stay tuned, we'll be right back with Teddy. 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Hey, folks, we got the S&Ps right now, positive by 19 points, trading at 38.92. Let's jump over to our man, Teddy Kegsat. Folks, you can check out Teddy under newsletters. The Tiger Forex Report, he puts out an outstanding letter every Monday and updates when warranted throughout the week. We talk to Teddy every Wednesday at 40 past the hour. Always an interesting one when we talk to him on an interesting day like today, like Fed Day. Teddy Kegsat, good morning. Good morning, Tommy. Yeah, we have an exciting day today, don't we? Oh boy, man. I don't know, as I was mentioning to Kevin Hinks, they said, we'll know a lot more when I talk to you tomorrow in 24 hours than we do today because we find out a lot today, man. Where do you, I guess, let's jump to the Fed, Teddy. What are you anticipating, if anything, this afternoon from Chairman Powell? Well, I think a three-quarter point, no matter what is something that should be expected. The full point, I don't know. It's very possible. I think it's factored into the market already. So, but yeah, I think for sure, you're gonna see a three-quarter point with the potential of a full point, you know, and especially now that we have the ECB that's starting to get hawkish, I think that there's no reason why Powell would slow down his course of action, if you will. And how would that play into things with the ECB, I guess, is when you look at, I mean, we have the dollar index surging even higher today, right? We got some action going on with the dollar pushing 1086 was the overnight, we're at 110.75 right now. Even though the ECB is hiking, I guess, is the way to put it, that doesn't seem like it's slowing down what's happening at all, whether it's our yields or the dollar at all. Yeah, I think that the ECB thing is only putting on the brakes a little bit, as far as the Euro-US dollar trade is concerned. I still am very embarrassed at market. I mean, their three-quarter point is only gonna be canceled out by whatever we do today at the very least, you know, if not actually taken over if we do a full point. So that makes it basically a moot, you know, action, if you will. So the Euro-US dollar, I think, is still gonna trend lower. I wouldn't doubt that after today you may see a little profit-taking rally going on against the dollar. I mean, why wouldn't you? You know, now, you gotta realize that the three-quarter point is definitely factored in. A lot of people are factoring in the full point. The Fed speak is gonna be important. Are they, are we looking, we know that they're gonna remain hawkish. The question is, are they gonna be firing on all cylinders? Remember, six months ago, we were talking about, you know, the Fed raising rates every meeting at about a half a percent, maybe three-quarters here or there, you know? So, and they started out with the haves, now they're three-quarters. You know, it's a very aggressive action that's going on right now. And the question is, how long are they gonna maintain this, you know? And I always had a really interesting conversation with somebody in the real estate industry just the other day. If you look at the yields and excuse me, the mortgage rates, just in one year, they've tripled. You're going up 300% at going into this meeting if they raise a full point or even three-quarters of a point. You're basically up 300%. Now, when you're coming off of next to zero, a 300% gain is not that big of a deal. But still, it is a big jump as far as what rates are doing to the marketplace, you know? Now, we're not gonna maintain that kind of rate. You know, like, I wouldn't, if interest rates are up 300% from where they are right now to going into today, next year, then we have a really serious issue, you know, because mortgage rates will be in the teens, you know? So, but I think for sure, listen to what Powell has to say after this meeting. And I think he's gonna stay aggressive. I think that the stance that he has is he's gonna remain hawkish into the rest of the year, especially with the way the economic numbers have been coming out. Yeah, that's CPI number, right? And we still have an unemployment rate that by historical standards, man, it's pretty low. So, we're gaining hundreds of thousands of jobs a month, man. We got unemployment at 3.5, 3.6%, and we have inflation raging. So, yeah, I would say that they should keep the pedal to the metal, as they would say. What do you think of Russia, man? And the news going on with Russia impacting things at all in terms of, you know, the energy, the crude, we got crude sitting pretty healthy at $85 is not that bad of a price tag right now, especially with potentially things ratcheting up with Putin over there. Well, especially with crude right now, you know, we had that buy signal that we put out in the report a couple of weeks ago. Crude has been holding, you know? I mean, it's kind of bobbling off the lows. I think especially with this Russian thing that no matter what, things are gonna escalate when it comes to commodity prices again. We're in the fall, we're coming into winter. These, all these energy issues with the EU, they're gonna come to ruse sooner than later. Well, that's for sure. You know, you gotta realize we are very, very lucky even in the U.S. with the way, I mean, the climatologists will tell you the earth is falling apart, but we haven't had any major storms in the U.S. that we normally have going into the fall. You know, we haven't had Houston hit with any hurricanes. You know, that hasn't had any, we haven't had any disruptions on the refinery or supply side in America, which is weird for this time of year. Usually we will have had at least one major storm hit Houston, you know? It's like clockwork. Now globally, the same issue is there. Now we're coming into winter. What happens if the weather starts to really go hard this winter, come November and December? The price, the energy prices in Europe are crippling them. If the Ukrainian, Russian conflict, this is not going to be over in six months. This is not gonna end at any time soon. You know, hopefully it doesn't get escalating in a really bad way, but there is no way I can see this panning out that we're gonna have some kind of peace talks or neutrality or easing up on anything, you know, over the next six months. The sanctions that are on Russia aren't hurting Russia. They're destroying the economy of the EU right now. And they're also affecting all kinds of other trade balances across the world. You know, lines in the sand were drawn by these sanctions. Those are not gonna go away, even if you have peace talks between the Ukraine and Russia. You know, I mean, the reality is India, China, these things, they're in motion. They're set in stone now. Why would they come back to the table with the United States or even Europe or any of these other countries that have now put them through all this financial nightmare? Cause on their end, they're looking at it like, well, we're not involved in this war. Why do we have to have our economy suffer because of what you're doing to act, you know, for your actions, you know? And I think it's all gonna come to roost. I think that the dollar right now, we're riding a nice little wave higher, but when this thing turns, you know, and it could really turn very quickly next year, you're gonna see a sell-off in the dollar like you saw on the bonds over the past year, you know? And that's gonna be very big. You were talking about where the dollar index was a year ago, we could be back at those levels in less than a one year's time when we go down, when we start going the other way. Wherever we eventually turn, because yeah, we will get over that at some point. As in, I think, you know, at least you have a chairman who may be late to the party of the Fed, but seems like the focus is there. And it seems like, fortunately, our economy can handle it right now, at least better than Europe in terms of really, you know, crushing things to the point of getting inflation under control and having an economy that, yeah, might not be as good as it's been, but hopefully the Fed doesn't completely destroy that where they have to come into the rescue following that. What do you think, let's jump to the dollar yen, all right? Because I was kind of surprised to see we got dollar yen up a bit, we got gold up, even $10, but gold, man, near recent lows you're talking about years, but what's your take on the yen, Teddy, as we push 144, kind of similar, we're just chopping around in this area? Well, right now, excuse me, I think that after the meeting, when the number gets hiked up, I think for sure you're gonna see a little spike into US dollar yen. They've already hit through some key resistance with, I mean, in the very short amount of time over the past few weeks to begin with. And I think that there's no way to see, no reason to think that these levels aren't gonna keep continuing to make higher move highs and higher move lows. So I think that after the meetings, we're gonna probably see, if not today over the next couple of sessions, we're gonna see new highs in the yen, I can see it's going to 150 over the next couple of weeks, if not the next two weeks or so. And will that eventually get the same type of pullback like the dollar when that turns in the years to come? Oh, well, eventually, yeah, that will, but it's gonna take, you know, a real much more than market. Hang with us for one more segment, okay, Teddy? Perfect, we'll be right back folks, talk a little again to finish it up, we'll be right back. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger Zen, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. And now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den, available to all tigers and tigers' for just $1 for the year. There's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders. 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When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from Veteran Day Trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com, educating investors. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. We get the S&Ps up about 23 points right now, trading at 38.96. We're talking to our man, Teddy Kegstad. So just finishing up, Teddy. Talking about, you know, because it is interesting to think about, right? We have the dollar index charging above 110. Once we eventually maybe roll over, maybe once the Fed gets inflation under control, they don't have to be as restrictive. Yields come into things, of course. Maybe that rolls over. Now, is that gonna translate? Of course it's gonna translate to dollar pairings versus any currency. But the way the yen has written up there, is that kind of a market that you could look for a similar top that would be tied to that type of a rollover in the dollar? Oh, I think that once we start to see the Fed not be so hawkish that that would give us a good situation for a correction, I think really the only way you're gonna see a big correction in the yen, though, is if we have another big sell-off in oil. You know, that's one of the big things. And I would say, if we get a bounce in the bonds in the tenure, which is very likely after this Fed meeting, you know, in a couple of sessions, now I would think that we may still push the lows first, you know, spike before we, you know, reverse for a correction. But we're due for a correction. I mean, the way the bonds in the tenure over trade now, there's no reason to not see that we would have a three, four basis handle correction. If we have something like that, we could easily have a four to $6 sell-off in the yen. You know, so I mean, right now we're trading around 143. To get back to 137 for a bounce, very, very likely. You know, I think that going any lower than that, you could maybe get down to the 135 area. But that would be if we have like a week and a half to two weeks of the yields, basically trending lower in the U.S. on the tenure and the third year, which could very easily happen in between the next Fed meetings. We have a little gap now between this meeting and the next meeting. So for us to have a bounce, you know, going against the trend of the Fed, the market, I mean, you gotta realize the mortgage, the bankers right now are scrambling for people to refinance because they know that rates are going up. I mean, I had a conversation with somebody yesterday, you know, that they were trying to get people to refinance and lock them in. Yesterday, I'm like, well, that would be a good thing to do because tomorrow it's going to be up a full point. Sure. No, I hear you, man. The end is not in sight just yet, in my opinion. But we get to find out today. Teddy, thanks for taking the time as always, man. We appreciate it. We'll talk to you next Wednesday. Folks, check out the Tiger 4X report. Thanks so much for tuning in. Starting your day. Stay tuned. Basil's up next, folks. It's Fed Day. Don't go away. We'll be right back.