 Hello everyone, my name is Dr. Anand Kumar Sharma, my rank is 62 in CSE 2018, in this video we will be covering chapter 7 that is India's Demography at 2040 Planning Public Good Provision for the 21st Century. So this chapter is talking about the slowdown in the population growth of the country, how it is impacting the various states, how it is going to impact the provisions of the country of the labour force, the PFR, the health climate or the public good provisions, how they are going to impact it and how do we need to prepare it. So it is about the trajectory of the population growth and how we need to prepare for the population growth trajectory in the future. So it says India is set to witness a sharp slowdown in the population growth, although the country is going to enjoy the demographic dividend but states like south Himachal Pradesh, West Bengal have their TFR below the replacement level whereas the states like Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Uttargarh, Rajasthan are above the replacement level but they will also be experiencing a significant decline. It talks about that the Dashlet TFR is going to be below replacement level by 2021 adjusted for sex ratio. The age distribution however India implies this work age population will grow by roughly 9.7 million from 2021 to 31 and 4.2 million per year from 2021 to 41. Also the proportion of elementary school going at 5 to 14 age is going to decrease though state needs to pay attention to the merger of the school and also prepare or the health infrastructure for the aging. So it shows that our growth rate has decreased from 2.5 percent during 71 to 1.3 percent as of now in 2011-16. Some states have their replacement level, TFR below the replacement level some states have higher than the replacement level but they are going to significantly decrease. So the replacement level is usually marked at 2.1 as discussed this has been decreased due to the effective replacement level adjusted to the sex ratio of the country. India has reached the current TFR of 2.3 and which is relatively low to the other countries. There is a wide variation in experiences of different Indian states. States of South India as well as Himachal and West Bengal have their replacement level as low as 1.6 or 1.7 whereas high fertility rate Bihar have a high TFR but they are sharply decreasing. So this development suggests that India is going to enter a new stage of demographic transition which is along with the demographic dividend. So this we need to prepare for it so they are preparing for it and hence there need to be make provisions in the policy for old age care, for school facilities, retirement, public pension, income tax revenue, retirement age all these needs to be adjusted to prepare for this demographic transition. Now we are talking about the national and state level population projection. So it says projected values for TFR for fertility rates for 2021-41 suggests that national level will continue to decline rapidly and will reach replacement level at 1.8 as early as 2021 and at 1.7 it will become stable. This will be close to TFR and this will be early in Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and in Madhya Pradesh UP it will be in 2031 and some states have already reached this level. So this will have an impact on this assumption and this TFR assumption is based on the sex ratio adjusted because the number of women are less than the number of men. Now we talk about the population growth trajectory. Population growth trajectory it talks about the population growth. It shows that population growth will continue to slow rapidly over the next 2 decades growing less than 1% during 2021-31 and under 0.5% during 2031-41 which shows that there is a sharp decline in the population growth of the country which is the current trend seen currently in Germany and France. So since there is a given a state level differences in the TFR replacement level and the growth rate declaration there is going to be a significant changes in the impact of this policy on this stage. So this is we need to prepare for this impact there is going to be a change in the age composition as well. Since this is decreasing India it says that the share of India's young population from 0 to 19 has already started to decline and projected to drop from as high as 41% in 2011 to 25% by 2041 whereas the doubling of the old age population is going to happen from 8.6% in 2011 to 16% in 2041 when share of working population expected to hit 59%. With changing of demographic composition India's age structure by 2041 will resemble as that of China and Thailand. So it highlights that how the old age population is going to double from 8.6% in 2011 to 16% in 2041 which shows that India's age composition in 2014 is going to resemble China and Thailand as seen during the current decade. Since there is going to be witness a decline in share of young population for next two decades the demographic transition such as Himachal Pradesh, West Bengal or the southern would have less than one fourth of the population under age of 20 but one fifth or more population over the age of 59. Similarly in the states like Bihar, Chhattisgarh, MP and Rajasthan this population is going to share of young population all those will remain relatively high as large as 30% in Bihar by 2041. So all this demographic transition this is going to have a various implications. Now we will study about those implications. Implication is like the working age population. Working age population will start to decline in 11 out of the 22 major states. The labour force ratio that is 9.7 million per year is going to rise in 2021 to 31 and from 31 to 41 it is going to be 4.2 million per year the labour force will be added. The working age population will start to decline in the states of southern states Punjab, Maharashtra. On the other hand working age population will continue to rise through 2014 in states lagging behind in demographic transition that is MP, UP, Mehr. So rising population could meet now there is going to be a migration from those states where the demographic transition is yet to happen and not where which has already happened. So the people will migrate from states like UP we have to all the southern states because there is going to be a deficit and there is going to be an access. So this will minimize the access will meet the deficit which is there in the other states. There are many elementary schools since the 5 to 14 population is going to decline and there are schools so there is a need the population is going to decline so the government needs to instead of opening school need to consolidate and merge the school to increase the quality. Quality of the schools and elementary education we are not talking about reducing the funding of the elementary education but shift from quantity to quality and that has been done where there is a decline in the school getting population in states like Japan, China, South Korea, Singapore and Canada they have also followed the same model so we need to do that so has to have a more quality and efficiency of education. Then health care facilities states where the young population is increasing or the population demographic transition yet to happen the number of beds per population is very less. So we need to prepare for this rising population as well and on the population where there is going to be a aging in the southern state or the other state there is a need to focus on the geriatric care geriatric care means infrastructure and the facilities for the old age people the diseases are affecting these people we need to prepare for that also. Further it talks about the retirement age since India's healthy life expectancy at the age of 60 that has been increasing over the period for both men and men it is 12.9 years average that is 12.5 years for male and 13.3 years for female so due to aging population and increasing on the pension funding many countries have been raising their retirement ages such as Germany France and USA Australia they have increased their retirement age so India also need to since a life expectancy for both male and female at 60 is increasing India also needs to increase their retirement age this will be key to the viability of the pension system help increase labour force participation and older age group and hence perhaps a decade before the anticipated shift this will help in plan for advanced pension and other retirement provisions basically they are planning about the infrastructure as well as the retirement age pensions for the people so as there is less burden on the pension funds and more labour force can be created so that a more output can be created for the people and also a better output and better efficiency for the country can be created so this chapter is not merely an attempt to look at the changing population dynamics but it also talks about what are the policy revisitations we need to make to address the demographic transition which has occurred and which is about to occur in some state so as to meet the needs of the rising population aging population so that there is a less impact and less burden on the resources and this will help us so that the government policy intervention can cope up with this change now we will summarize the chapter India is said to witness a sharp slowdown in population growth in next two decades all the country as a whole will enjoy the demographic days state some state will start transition to an aging state by the 2030s a surprising fact that this population bracket in 0 to 98 bracket is already peaked due to sharp decline in TFR across the country the national TFR is expected to blow replacement late by 2021 working age population will grow by roughly 9.7 million per year in 2021 to 31 and 4.2 million per year in 2031 to 41 the proportion of elementary school going education that to 5 to 14 children is going to decline so there is a need to shift toward consolidation and merger of the schools to have a better quality and efficiency of the elementary education and also the policy makers need to prepare for aging that is for the health infrastructure as well as increasing the retirement age to reduce the burden on the pension and other resources this way this chapter talks about the changing population dynamics and how to cope up with what policy interventions we need to make to get prepared for this change and so there is a less burden and also the government is well prepared for that thank you subscribe to our channel and click on the bell icon to get latest updates on upcoming videos