 Hey everyone, welcome to this week's video update today's Friday March 20th before we jump into the alerts and the current positions Just want to give a little bit of commentary on the markets overall We've got about a little over an hour left in today's session at the time of this recording S&P's down 50 Dad am 4 plus Nasdaq down over a hundred Russell the strongest of the group still down just under 1% so The the markets are sliding today They actually bounced up earlier in the day or actually last night and came up to about the 2,500 level Which is actually right at the number that I was looking for on my butterfly But then it quickly retraced and and we're going lower at this point so by the end but within the next hour a lot could change but Basically, you know, I still think that we get a pretty sizable bounce higher Sometimes soon now, you know, whether that is early next week next week two weeks. I don't you know, who knows? But I think we will But I but I also don't think we've seen the the lowest of the lows either so What I was anticipating kind of my Hypothesis if you will was that we're gonna get a bounce today and or early next week and then and then roll over But who knows what'll happen. That is just kind of what I'm playing for overall We do have a little bit of long Delta overall in our portfolio. So we would definitely benefit from a little bit of a bounce So that that's kind of what we're thinking here Let's go in let's go. Well before we jump into the alerts. Let's talk about who got caught being hot in the community So Andrew Roan, he's been with us for a few months and just started right off the bat posting Good questions trade ideas trade, you know posting some of his trade experiences both good and bad You know, I love I love, you know, some people only want to post their winners, right? And then some people are very frustrated. They only want to post their losers love love when you guys post both good and bad I think it really helps other people understand a when you learn from your mistakes if you can share that with others, that's always a big deal and then obviously You know posting good trades to that went well or posting before you even even know what the trade outcome was Is is is very helpful as well. So Congrats Andrew keep up the heat and appreciate all the commentary in the community Love having you in our NT family So starting with the alerts Going back to the first of the week, which was the 16th So first was a rolling adjusting trade and IWM So we did we continue to roll down our short Delta verticals and to keep that short Delta in this case You know, we kept some in April and some in May in this case with IWM We stayed in that same cycle with 32 days to expiration. So if we take a look at IWM IW the Russell's been the weaker on this entire slide that the Russell's Definitely been the weakest small caps getting hit the hardest, but here is here's where we're at So price is well inside of our range got some more room for some more downside there So just continuing to hold on to this for that short Delta exposure Next trade rolling adjusting trade in DE kind of a similar situation. This is a This is a short call vertical If you remember if you've been with it with this trade since the beginning it actually started out as a long put vertical By mistake we kind of flipped it over to a short call and we had earnings coming up So we just left it the way it was so it's now a short call vertical But same thing we stayed in the April cycle of 32 days and just rolled down our strikes from 155 160 down to 131 35 and John Deere's been getting hammered Down another almost 4% today So we are at a point where we could roll this again, and if we do so, you know April's got what 28 day? Yeah 28 days So the one thing about John Deere is there's no May monthly options yet So we'll take our time with this one those will come out Eventually and then we'll potentially and then we'll potentially roll out Or depending on where you're at in the cycle if you want to lighten up your short Delta You could also choose to close this out, you know, we're over 50% of max profit But but the way I look at this is You know we always talk about hey, you know close this once you get to over 50% of max But the way the one thing to kind of consider when you're looking at this is look at the slope of the P&L line Obviously the further you get down it starts to really flatten out right, but we've still got a pretty steep equity curve and as we get closer expiration that the gamma will make that even steeper so as long as we got a decent, you know We want this for short Delta. So as long as we got a good profit potential still and a decently steep curve I don't mind keeping on a little past 50% of max profit But that's kind of the the logic once you get past 50 it starts to flatten that a little bit and especially up here when You're about 80% of max profit So we'll keep this on the other thing. We don't you know, we try to we don't want to get whips odd either So if we do get a bounce next week, you know, that's gonna put price way up here So we don't want to roll up and then get the whiplash where it busts out of our range So it's just a managing and massaging game. Of course, we have multiple positions on so we never know what's gonna happen So we just kind of Do them at different expiration cycles roll them on different days And that's why we talk about diversifying those days to expiration diversifying the time that we that we make those adjustments. So That is the plan in DE Next trade rolling adjusting trade in ES. So same situation. This is a long put vertical Just rolling down our strikes in this case we rolled out So we rolled from 32 days out to 60 days to expiration in ES So if we take a look at that one We you know, we've come down a little bit since that roll, but we've we're out in a further duration And so I've been getting a couple questions about well how do you how do you choose whether to stay in the same cycle or to roll out and It's it's really just a matter of what I mentioned before we're diversifying our days to expiration So we just we choose some there's not really a rhyme or reason of why we do one versus the other You know, for example in in John Deere, there is no May option. So we're staying in April in ES There's a lot of different options available as far as expiration cycles. So we went ahead and rolled this one out and then the other thing and just that the other thing to consider is the the P&L Volatility in your shorter duration is going to be a little bit more volatile meaning Smaller price moves in the price are going to affect your P&L Positively or negatively depending on on the direction the further out into duration you go that P&L line does get flatter Right in both directions. So it doesn't hurt you as bad if the market moves up And it doesn't you don't get as much profit as it moves down So those are just kind of the considerations We're looking at when deciding on the time frames and and where to roll those and of course now that April is out of that 30-day range. We're not we wouldn't roll any more inside that April cycle Any any additional rolls will be out to May or a different expiration Next trade opening trade in VXX. So we put on a short call vertical in VXX This one with 31 days to expiration You know VXX is just obviously being on a tear to the upside with volatility Expanding stocks going down. And so we thought it was time to dip our toes into that So if we take a look you can see we're up a little bit in fact earlier today We're quite a bit more but now with stocks falling applied volatility is expanding So we're just up a tiny bit on the trade but If we put our price slice at the break even in fact, let me just do that here 418 to the expiration date click on the chart and click back So we get a smooth line you can see it's got about a 67 and a half percent probability of a success at this point But of course VXX also has that downward drag which In a normal cycle with the contango and backwardation if you understand that the rolling of the futures behind the pricing of this But really what we're what we're playing for is we put this on right here and Took a little bit of heat as it expanded even further and now it's come down and we're a little bit profitable So, you know, we're just playing over the next 30 days that you know price is gonna land somewhere somewhere down here and You know who knows may may not but we're staying small We may add to this if we get another big push higher in VXX But for now we're just gonna hold on and see what happens Next trade rolling just in trading QQQ so roll this one out to the May cycle with 59 and again rolled our strikes down from 201 206 down to 175 180 so here's the cues and And price is hanging out right here. So not too far off from where we made that roll Next trade rolling just in trade and Apple so another kind of same theme here and this one We just kept in April with 31 days just rolled our strikes down So we had we were well over 50% of max profit So just rolled those strikes down in the same cycle pretty close to where we did that So again, just holding this for a little bit more short delta exposure Rolling adjusting trade in SMH. So this is where we had a short strangle and we rolled the calls down So we rolled them from 147 down to 121 and so we were not and we stayed in that same April cycle We're not inverted. So we still got the 117 puts 121 calls and we're just gonna hold onto that until we get closer to 21 days And then we will roll out in time So prices outside of the range But if you look at the untested side the calls you still see we got a decent amount of juice in those We're not looking to roll down the calls again yet, but But when we get down to you know end of next week early the following week We'll be rolling this out from April to May because we'll be down to that around that 21 days to expiration point Opening adjusting trade in CL so our buddy oil our pain our thorn oil So here the one that we added is this one here We entered a new strangle and look at this look at how much the implied volatility has expanded It's not too far off as far as the price of oil from where we put it on But implied volatility has expanded so much that it's put pushed our P&L lying down now I got a question From a couple people in the community is like hey, you know, is this is it a good idea to be? you know putting on a strangle in oil and Obviously nobody knows what's gonna happen and if it's not if it's too much risk for you for your account then absolutely don't do it This is a big contract, right? And we already have we already have one position on in oil So obviously do we wait we wish we would waited a few days because we would have got an even bigger credit But we're talking about a thirty three thousand one hundred fifty dollar max profit on one contract here So but that that volatility there, you know the risk the uncertainty that comes with risk So you've got to be comfortable. Don't just blindly follow our alerts because we're putting putting this trade on You've got it. You've got to make that decision for yourself But you know if we all can you know Ivy contracts, you know that P&L line will jump back up pretty quick And we got we got a really big range here because it implied volatility so high as well But you've got to you know do what do what's best for you the other the other thing I've been having a lot of questions for email community is You know, how how low can oil really go right? It's a physical product. It's a consumable product from Every country in the world, you know, how how low can it go? And you know, I was reading something, you know, I think the Saudi Arabia oil company I mean they can they can produce oil for single-digit per barrel, you know, so let's say $9 per barrel I don't remember what it was, you know, so could oil get down to $10 a barrel. Yeah Yeah, it could now. Do I see that happening? No, no, I don't But you know, you don't want to think oh oil could never absolutely never get to $10 a barrel because it certainly could now That would be just a crazy situation. But guess what? We are in a crazy situation right now So don't ever say never just stay small key and you know, again if it doesn't fit You can also go to some of these smaller ETFs like XLE XOP if you're not if you're not comfortable with the futures to so that's that now we also still have our Have our short put leftover from our other position So we just got rid of the call because it was pretty much worthless and we're just looking for a bounce So, you know, we were on a good good bounce yesterday up over 20 some percent And then now we're sliding back down down about 10 today So just kind of holding on to that until we get down to about 21 days to expiration Or if we you know if we get a decent bounce I would look to add that call back on and then just continue to manage that that short strangle But just being patient just seeing if we can get a little bit of a bounce here Obviously if it continues lower that's going to hurt that position. So again going back to that If you have this same position on two and you're not comfortable With that with that downside risk and oil on that short put then by all means get out or sell a call against it Or you know do do what you need to do to make yourself more comfortable All right, it's oil next trade Oh, that's where we close that call side of that strangle Closing trade in spx. So we had a weekly double calendar in spx. This was a really nice one closed for over $2,200 per contract Just held that for six days I know a couple people held on a little bit longer and got out even with even a bigger profit. So Great trade in spx and we put another one though those on today, which I'll get to you in just a minute opening adjusting trade in zw. So I mentioned I think on last week's video that we may just you know Bail on our our wheat trade just because you know, there's so much high implied volatility elsewhere But the reality is the juice in the options in wheat are good as well And and the more I thought about it. I thought you know what? I think it makes sense to keep our wheat position or you know Continue to extend duration on this wheat position because it's just such an uncorrelated asset class to the rest of the market You know, see we've got stocks. We've got the euro. We've got oil. We've got gold We've got net gas bonds and and wheat just adds another uncorrelated asset And we had on so one of the alerts here was we had on a short put vertical here That was in the money and we got this huge move up yesterday And came right back into range and so we ended up booking a nice profit on last month's Piece of the trade and then we went ahead and entered a new centered iron condor. So it's pretty close to where we put it on Um, it hasn't moved much. So just waiting in wheat So there's the there's the opening trade and there's that closing of that put vertical and then closing trade in spy. So we had an iron duck on in spy and price Came right down to the duckhead. We took this off this morning Um, I mean it was already to a point where we we got you know, we bought this back for 26 cents almost nothing Uh, we could have held on for a few more cents I know some of you were looking to get at it like I read in the community like 14 cents and and that kind of thing So that's great. If this was spx, we probably would have left it on longer and potentially just let it expire But with spy with the way the market is moving crazily Let's go to a chart um, I can't remember what our exact strikes were on that duck, but um, you know What I didn't want to happen was this thing to move out of range and then we end up, you know Closing it for 50 of max profit instead of whatever we did 80 90 of max profit. So, um Yeah, I just didn't want it. It was it was so well centered in our duckhead We just said let's take that profit and run and you know, now we're getting a big move So it probably benefited us by doing that But uh, you know if remember on an iron duck and I'll show you our iron condor position But the actual iron duck, you know, if this was a duck and this was the duckhead You know, if you if price does expire in between those short strikes Then you can you could let it expire theoretically and you just it would just uh You just get max profit the options go away But the problem is you know, this these we're having such huge swings I didn't want to get to a situation where we ended up closing between our Our short put and our long put And then we get assigned uh over the weekend and we don't have the other options in place because for protection because they expired So that's why we on on on american style stocks and ETFs We typically close those before they expire whereas with spx or rut we can let those expire because those settle to cash cashish All right, um Next trade rolling adjusting trade in dia So another rolling of one of our verticals, uh, and this one was already out in may with 56 days So we just rolled down our strikes from 250 255 all the way down to 210 215 so if we take a look at dia We've got two sets on here So we've got the one out in may that we're just talking about here We've got four contracts on that one and prices moved down even more since that roll And then we've got the one in that's still in april and again We're at a point where we can we can roll this one as well So early next week we'll potentially look to be rolling the strikes closer on that one and since this is in april We'll roll this one out to may as well So then we'll have two sets out in may one with three contracts one with four Next trade opening adjusting trade in spx So this is that weekly double calendar and we did the front week with seven days and the back week with just 10 So remember in and this is the one just like the one we did last uh that we just closed out this week as well So remember In our course when we teach that weekly double calendar, uh strategy in our week in our weekly income course Typically we're we're selling the front week at about seven days, but we're typically buying the back week out at like 21 days So in this environment, I've been shrinking the difference between that front and back week And I want to take a minute to explain this uh and why why i'm doing that. So if we take a look at spx So here's what that looks like For one thing, you know, this only costs 800 and some dollars in buying power So it so by shrinking the difference between The front month and the back week front week and back week You're you're reducing your buying power so you could get into this on spx for whatever it was 800 and some dollars So that that's one thing the other thing, uh, I'm doing a little bit differently is I'm widening out these strikes So we we talk about using about the 40 delta on each side in this case. I'm going between about 25 and 30 so we're just getting a wider range uh to to uh to help with some of these massive swings If we put a slices to break even The uh, you can see initially we have over an 80 percent probability of profit on this trade I think it's closer to 84 85 when we first set it up the prices moved down since then So um, so that that's kind of the difference and and so I want to make sure you understand Why we're why we're the other reason why we are Kind of shrinking that distance between the front week and back week When we when we talk about like a double calendar or a calendar spread in general, you know, we typically talk about okay If implied volatility expands that's going to benefit your trade Uh, or if implied volatility contracts, that's going to work against your trade but I want to make sure I clarify this because You you can you can get hurt on these trades For example, I put a similar one of these on in a in a different account in my personal account yesterday Well, vol is getting crushed today And so price is still pretty dead center But my p&l line is now down here because that because that vol crush So when vol contracts Significantly you can you can get hurt on these so there's no free lunch when it expands it benefits you But here's here's the real So it's not just a matter of volatility expanding and contracting and what makes these calendars a little bit more complex Is because you're working with two different expiration cycles And so for example on this one We are selling the front week which is that seven day and we're buying the back week, which is that 10 day So theoretically we want the front options to contract quickly And we want the back ones to either contract slower Or even expand right because we're buying those ones So we would we want those to expand we want these to contract typically what happens is the front just expand quicker Then do the back and that's how we profit off of the calendar spread So if you're looking at the seven day currently The volatility the the volatility on these options is about 86 and the ones in the back are about 76 Okay, so so it's really the the expansion or contraction of implied volatility the difference between these two that really matters Okay, it's not just if implied volatility contracts. It's not just if implied volatility expands It's how the different cycles work so One of the reasons that I am kind of squeezing the duration between the the front and the back in this period is because Um Three days is not very much, right? That's not a very long time. So the so the difference so when these expand and contract Theoretically they're going to move Together a little bit closer closely than would The back week if they were two weeks out, right? So the back week is two weeks out And you could say okay Yeah, but look at those they're way cheaper, right? So don't you want to buy them when they're way cheaper? Well, yeah, theoretically, but again, it's the difference between the ones you're selling and the ones you're buying It's not just that they're cheaper. That doesn't mean that they're going to expand more Well, this one is contracting. Okay, so it's it's the difference So the reason I like to do the the tighter duration between the front and back right now is because You know, I think these just three days apart. Those are going to move pretty similarly, right? So The front will contract The front. Whoops. Where's my pin? The front will contract at a rate like this and the back will contract very very similar Okay, so so then what we're left with is pure theta decay, right? So Theoretically our our profit tent would stay very similar and as we go through time To next friday, you can see the p&l line go up We're going to exit this either the day before expiration or on expiration date And you've got a this big range of you know, potentially capturing a big profit like the one we did that we closed this week So that's that's kind of the thought process now You know the market's going to do what the market does There's nothing that says that has to happen, but that's why I'm not going out as far on the back week right now because think of it is just From a from a human nature standpoint, right? So if uh, if implied volatility contracts There's a lot of juice in these back week options. So they they could they could can uh Theoretically they could contract much quicker Even than the front week So, you know, just so it depends on what happened if some kind of news comes out That says, you know, something's going to happen in a couple weeks. Well, that's that could affect the options out here where they could contract quicker than the back ones and so Anyway, that hopefully that all makes sense I'm just trying to give you a little bit more of my thought process of why we're kind of squeezing that duration right now as opposed to doing like the seven Uh in the 21 ish day kind of differences between those so Just got to understand the way that these work if you're going to trade them because it's uh, like I said, there's no No free lunch. You got to you got to make sure that you understand The volatility of the front versus the back, but they can be very profitable like we saw this week And um, and and you can get smacked around a little bit too like the one I put on yesterday involved contracted today Um, you know, I'm I'm under water on that right now and I still have another seven days So a lot could happen. So I'm not really too worried about it But you know, we and that's why I talk about we want to get in on these on days When implied volatility is contracting now the market is Lower now and implied volatility is expanding at this point. But when we put this on this morning Uh, it was uh, I mean the the cost of these double counters kept going down and down and down I was watching them for about for for a little while before we even put it on because they just kept coming down down down so, uh You're never going to time it perfectly You're never going to catch the bottom or the top of the implied volatility expansions and contractions But uh, anyway, I just trying to give you a little bit of insight and thought process behind the method to our madness Hope that helps All right last trade opening trade in roku. So we threw on a reverse ducky duck in roku and reason we did that roku was up today and Obviously with the reverse iron duck we have no risk to the downside So this thing could tank again. We got no risk there and we got all the way up to 87 80 To potentially get a duck head. So if we do get a rally into next week, you know, that could potentially come right into the duck head Uh, obviously, we don't want it to go past that break-even point And if we if it does we'll bail and say see a roku, but that is uh, that's what we've gotten roku Some of the other positions here. We've got six e which is the euro You can see prices just outside of our range there But if we look at the untested side still got a decent amount of juice in those calls. So we're not looking to Reposition those yet We've got, you know, we've got 49 days to expiration. So we're certainly not looking to roll out to the next expiration just holding that Uh, yes, I mentioned g c. Oh gc. Yeah, I want to talk about this one too So this is our iron condor Look at what implied volatility expansion has done to this puppy Uh, so we're just outside the range But look at how much value we have left in these calls that are they're almost at full value still And so we're just that's why we haven't adjusted this. I mean, you know, if we want to roll down the calls Well, you know, we like to do that when there's very little value left in that call vertical side But there's still a bunch, you know Two thirds of the value is still left in the in that call vertical The other thing we looked at was potentially adding another one. So as implied volatility has expanded, we would do it in the same cycle So we wanted to look at adding a Another potential gold iron condor because it has moved out of out of range and that would just a get us some more More premium more credit when implied volatility is higher But if I Sorry, my computer's freezing up here. Let me pause for a second and I'll come right back okay, so um, so if we go to if we were to go to So well, they're a little bit lower now when I was looking before the the short calls We're still right around that 20 delta So it's like if if I was going to do this I'd be using the same strikes and that's not what I want Now they've they've come down so we may look at adding one next week But at this point we're just kind of holding on and and seeing if we get a little bit of a bounce in gold Natty gas moving a little bit lower today, but we've got a the suggested short strangle So it's still a little bit in range here if we look at the calls still got full value left in the call So no adjustments on natty gas yet. We've still got 38 days to expiration. So noting to roll out in time Bonds bonds have been playing a little bit nice for us Obviously, we had that huge rip your face off rally that was pretty painful and now things have kind of come back in line And if we look at Where prices this is kind of both of our positions combined, but if you look at where prices It's not too far out of that out of that range Here's the one and if you look at just the untested side the puts again still got over full value left in those puts for theta decay there And then on the other piece It looks like this we're inverted and then you know the puts there Uh, you know, we still got a ton of room to row to run and then on the calls same thing. So No adjustments. There's nothing to do here There's no adjustments that you can do that will benefit this except we are waiting, you know We are still getting positive theta decay If we look at you know where our theta is You know, we're still getting We're still getting over 271 dollars a day in the theta decay So, you know, there's that we're we're just playing the waiting game and and we're at 35 days to expiration So once we get down to closer to 21 that we'll roll out And just continue to manage this thing. We might at some point once we You know potentially recoup some of what we're down in bonds We'll probably cut one of those loose So we just have less exposure and then we can potentially add one back on at a later point But at this point we are we're just playing the waiting game ZW I mentioned that Apple I can't remember. Did we adjust that one? We've got this long put vertical here prices hanging out right here. Just holding that for that short delta exposure I mentioned de it's down over 6% now just since we've been talking this moved down quite a bit S&Ps are down almost 90 now just in the time that we've been talking I mentioned dia IWM Roku smh spx spies Yeah spy. We got that iron condor still Vxx I mentioned xbi. So here's a this is an adjusted strangle again looking at the untested side You still got a lot of room to go in those calls But late next week early the following week We'll be rolling this out to the next cycle and then lastly xlk another short delta position About at 50% of max profit here. So again, we'll potentially be rolling this out to I don't think there's any may options yet Yeah, there's no may options yet. So we're just going to hold on to this one for now Until those come about and then we'll potentially roll out We could also consider rolling out to the weeklies, but in xlk. I don't think these are that liquid. Let me just check that out For some reason my Platform is a little freaky today Yeah, the the liquidity is not great in those weekly options. So I'd like I'd prefer to wait till a may monthly cycle comes out Um, yeah, I mean, these are these are a buck wide over a dollar wide at the money. So We'll see what happens. We will just hold on to that for now Everybody have a great weekend and we will talk to you next week