 Let's get over to our mammoth to Tim orders that we do every Tuesday and Thursday and don't forget folks You can reach our mammoth to Tim wood every trading day at odd hyphen oracle or D Ord hyphen oracle calm. That's odd hyphen oracle calm Tim ord. What's going on, brother? there's quite a bit of stuff going on outside expiration week would be an up week and tried to hold on long so I could but I Still think this is nothing real dangerous here going on But we can start with the the S&P's if you want. Yeah, you sent me a bunch of shots. I love it man. Okay It would know what number was the S&P Tim was it number one? Oh, yeah, I start with the number one. Okay, good We're there cool, man. Okay. All right Well, the second window up from the bottom is a 10-day average of the trend. Yeah, and I I shaded Kind of a pink area when it's when it's Dangerous, I guess you might say that I shade the blue area. Okay, when it's bullish. So we want to get in the pink You know point nine and below it can really Pick out tops and all those red lines across that chart chart goes back You know close a couple of years or whatever and all those red lines are times when the 10-day trend got to Point nine or lower. Okay, and now right now we're point eight two That was yesterday's clothes night. I was watching that and I thought well, you got expiration week, which is bullish So I thought, you know, maybe Not all indicators Then point the exact top to the exact day all the time They just give you warnings where a probable high was coming. I thought we may hold up until Thursday or Friday Then next week would be down Well, that didn't happen. We just we started down yesterday or a couple of days ago And and we're still going down matter of fact as we're talking here, you know We got it a trend reading at point nine eight, you know still hasn't really reached panic levels But that was a good tip off. I was I thought we might you know find support a little bit higher and 20 oh no Let's talk about this Tim. Let's talk about this good folks I'm gonna I'm gonna put this I'm gonna put all the trend up here on so you can see exact what Tim's talking about Because this is really unusual man I'm telling you that you get a market that has been coming down and look at this trend on Monday and Tuesday Monday was point four zero. I got Tim and I got point five four on Tuesday It's like, oh really? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, I've seen that too, and I'm thinking yeah I don't like to see that right I tried to hold on to my Position I'm thinking okay, maybe you know because you get some weird stuff during option expiration week which is this week and I think well No, I'll wait for another day when I blew out yesterday made a small profit, right? But it is what it is. So I was trying maybe I pushed you a little too hard on this trade But that's all right. And so so just folks so we can clarify this, right? What this point five four and four all means all right that there was no no fear in the marketplace people were buying it man They're buying it handle a fist actually, right? That's yeah, that's right. That's exactly what it means, right? Actually what it defines, you know Volume going into the upstocks, right? So they're buying a lot more upstocks With volume and then selling downstocks with volume. So yeah, it was a bullish sign everybody For some reason got bullish Maybe you know they were looking at you know X because October it was March April and October are the three best months of the Year during expiration. We are during expiration. We interesting. Okay. Yeah, so if you go by statistics, you know Odds would favor this be an up month like March and April Yeah, and why go three months or up don't know but if you go over time, so yes, so anyhow the market was going down. So now Actually, so you know, this is berries as of today, you know, we're around low 80s right now in the 10-day average To get bullish this is 10-day trend needs to get up to around 1.2 or higher. Wow. So and Panic only forms at bottoms and the trend is one way to define panic is present. Yes, so So can you turn bullish here now? It's not a good idea. Right. Yeah, you know, maybe next week, maybe a week after I don't know but Like if we look at the spy right now, too, you know, it's it's into that bar from the October 6th the strength but more than likely I mean, it's gonna be pretty hard for this to get it get over that You know the 1.2 zero probably until you get to the bottom of this consolidation, right? Yeah, yeah, I'm thinking we're gonna go to 120 Or 420 on the SPYs or about 4200 on the SPX Okay, cool and that if that area is gonna find support that 10-day trend needs to be up around that 1.2 area now if it's not Then you don't do anything until you do find panic, which is so cool That's what makes that that indicator so cool, right? I mean it really does Right. Yeah, so you're not fighting the market, you know, whenever when everybody's you know running for the door You know, you're trying to pick out the best trade you can find and all that panic. It's kind of you know You know, how much panic can you get? You know, basically the the more panic there is The higher probability you're near the the lowest low. Yes But but don't ever try to buy a market with release on the SP's or the NASDAQ or whatever not This really doesn't apply the equity market But you know, you won't find a bottom unless you find panic right and once you find panic you're looking at the bottom So there's another indicator. I wanted to touch on this go to page two for real quick. Okay and We talked about this last week and it was his wag breast thrust indicator. I say that ten times real fast. That's right So, but anyhow it got down to Actually the last bottom up to four four twenty area on the S&P is wag thrust breast indicator Get down to point four and I was looking for a sign of strength up to point six to really give confirmation of a bottom and That had to do that within 10 days. Well the 10-day period is today. Yes, we're not gonna do it So we did not get a sign of strength off that for 20 area. Yeah I was waiting for that 10 that he was even on vacation. I said it's gonna be cool Stay right there folks Tim and I coming right back our phone numbers eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight We have the down industrial straight down four Down to 46 and Aztec off 128 S&P's off 39 Tim and I coming right back folks Welcome back folks Tim or Tom or Brian. We do appreciate your growling prowling with us out here We have the doubt that I was trading down to 15 Aztecs off 117 S&P's are off 36 Tim and I were just Tim's bringing us through the Marty swag Basically ratios Yeah, no, I know and you know, I can't say it either and For one second we were talking about pay or a page one and flip the page for a chart tree real quick Okay, cool page one right top three. Yep. Oh, yeah. Well, no, we'll start three. Okay. I'm there. Yep All right. So, you know, this is basically chart or chart one Taken down into a smaller time frame because so you can see what really was kind of going on Okay, and the bottom window is that 10-day trend and I got a pink area I drew up when that down around 1.2 right and showed where that picked that bottom out wasn't Exactly perfect, but you know, it's good. Sure. And so now Yes, they were at point 8 to on the 10 day and so I my scenario is you know The trend has to get back to 1.2 or in that vicinity and I'm thinking that's going to happen when the S&P's which is the top window. Yes, the Goes down to around that 420 area and normally when you get start to get panicking an area Next time around you to get panicking the area and we did have some panic in there I wrote it down the trend All the stuff in blue there the trend clothes Are in blue and the tick clothes? Yeah When they reach panic areas and we did have panic areas between looks like about 420 to 425 range. All right So so we had it once and normally when you go back down to it, you'll get it again So we'll have to see if that happens if it does happen then I'm back You know looking for a low in that vicinity sure You know that's going to be my setup wherever it happens in that 420 range So if you don't get panic in the ticks and trend You wait. Yeah, now you wait until you do get it This is where this gets real interesting because if we don't get panic at that level Well, your next level is down to 403, right? Yeah, yeah, you the market will go until it gets panicked right right so And I've seen it before but actually it goes down and panic doesn't happen Market takes a kind of a bounce and goes back down to that same level again Then you get panic and it goes I think the time frames Sometimes it's not right for a time frame being though the price. I say go And I and I think other times where the price is you know the first time down But so anyhow, I don't know how all that's going to develop and I'll have a crystal ball But all I know is To get to get near a bottom you got to have panic and so that's what we're going to be looking for in this next Nice next pullback You want to go back to swag thing there? Yep. Absolutely. Here we go. Good. We're good. Yep. All right so we're back to this swag and the Red lines are when the swag breath thrust indicator hit below point four Then the blue line is when the bike thrust indicator hit point six Happen within ten days, right? So that's the parameters you got to have for the brag thrust Breath thrust indicator to trigger and for a brag thrust indicator to trigger what that and says you're forming a low So you got panic on the downside and you got a sign of strength to the upside So if you don't have the sign of strength the upside, it's not a bottom yet So that's what this indicator is really good for so you got to have a selling climax You got to have a buying climax so so you get selling climax if you don't get buying climax You're gonna have another selling climax Perfect. That was gonna be my question, right? So now we start all over again So now we need to selling climax then we we go for the well It's a selling climax that what that a sign of strength then That number goes up within ten days of that first sign of strength. Is that it or just? Well, you get like it. Why? Sometimes you get you know, well, I can't quite read the swag breast thrust indicator as of yesterday's close Came at a point four two. Yeah, so most likely we're reaching the panic level on at least the breath the There's like breast thrust indicator probably today ending blow point four is Where that any care needs to be to get the sign of weakness Okay, yep, and so that's developing right now, but it can stay below point four for you know, several days You know if you're looking for I got that Yeah, so you can stay there so I start to count when it starts going up and keeps going up Right, so you just stay stay down there below point four, you know, maybe for two three four days Whatever it is then once it starts going up. That's where I start the ten-day count from okay, cool So yeah So yeah, so probably the Bragg stress indicator is gonna hit, you know My opinion probably point four lower today, but if you'll you know on chart three, you know We need the ten-day trend to get up to one point two. Yes, so you're a long way from that Yeah, yeah, we're a long ways from it. So I'd be I'd be not in a hurry to To get so you know so the Bragg thrust so say we do get the one point two on The ten-day trend and we get down to four twenty and the market rallies on that market rally That Bragg's thrust indicator needs to get points to point six and ten days If it doesn't we're gonna go back down again and tell we do No, I listen man, I love the conversation I think it's it's it's it's great information because the market folks has always released an information and Tim Just looks at the market at a different way and so it's beautiful when you can look at this information particularly because now when you look at the the ten-day arms You know this next level down folks. Okay. Yes, it held the last time. We're here but if in fact that Arms still says low because keep up people keep buying well the bottom line is that means you can bust it apart That's one scenario. The second scenario would be that you know, you get the fear that's coming in That the arms blows out and then good then you got a trade, you know So it's really cool all around him, you know, it really is Yeah And so so you know the Bragg thrust is good once we get the rally going forget a sign of strength If you notice a sign of strength a lot of times there's a like a short-term pullback, too Sometimes yes, but sometimes you don't right along as you get a Bragg thrust indicator You know bully sign chances are that you're you're changing to an intermediate term rally. Yes, and so that's what we're looking for So it's not a day trade, you know, you ideally you like to get on trade and hopefully up every day Day after you buy it for the next five six months. They ain't gonna happen, but right I'm looking for the immediate term, but if you look at that last True on it on his wag breast thrust indicator during that bottom process from April of 2022 to April of 2023 We had three Swag breast thrusts Indicators at that low all proxies in the same location. Wow. So that was a good sign that intermediate term rally starting So that's reason why I'm kind of a little bit more bullish on the bigger time frames Because I think this market on that base period for the whole year has run its course to the upside Yes, so I'm thinking airman a term trend is basically still up. That's how I'm looking at it Yeah, well and we're not down that far. I mean that's that's the reality. Oh, yeah, it's like an ABC down to me Yeah, stay right there folks Tim and I coming right back And don't forget you can get hold of Tim every trading day folks at odd already Hyphen oracle comm that's odd hyphen oracle comm Tim and I coming right back Give the Dow industrials trading down 204 Nasdaq's up 109 S&P's off 32 come right back Welcome back folks said Tim or Tom around do appreciate your growling prowl on us out here We have the now about 261 down 261 as a cop 132 S&P's off 40. Okay, Tim, which out would you like to go to? Let's go to four number four Yeah, and and anyhow this chart goes back to 1984 I think we talked about it once before yes, and the middle window is the monthly XAU gold ratio, right? So it compares the Stocks against the gold so it's a monthly it's a monthly time frame So this is a big picture in the bottom window is the flow stochastic of that XAU gold ratio So and I've been kind of bullish. I think a major low last time The signal comes when the slow stochastic of this ratio block of those below 10 and turns up And I marked those all the times with and blue lines there where those signals come and the right above the slow stochastic is the XAU Index so you see where the index were triggered when they were triggered Last time this thing was triggered was August of last year Now the market has gone up a little bit and I'm thinking You know, I'm not an expert of Elliot wave could never make a lot of sense out of it But you know, there is some aspects that are pretty good But probably it picked out the leg one up and went into a high here whenever it was and we've been kind of retracing I think it's probably Elliot wave two down, but in my opinion, we're gonna make a higher low So the next leg up is probably gonna be a three But I think the major low was made last year in August of 2022 Well, they started an uptrend from there and and the goal in the gold contract I mean since up in a way, I mean you get some huge signs of strength in here, right? I mean, you know, yeah, we just came out of nowhere up 50 bucks With volume up 40 bucks with volume. Do you know what I mean? that yeah So so I'm only thinking you know, we're going down. We're not in a bear market anymore I think we're in a bull market has been a bull market since August last year Yes, if the top window is gold And you can see where that blue line hit that bottom pretty good and gold had a It went back and tested its old highs and barely has retraced any Uh, so I'm thinking that we're in a bull market. So the only thing we're screwing around now is the shorter term time frames And uh momentum rules quite a bit different things. Anyhow We'll go to chart five. Okay And uh, I thought we hit a decent low back in august And we want to be a little bit lower low Into this october low And I pointed out, uh, the bottom window is the gdx up down volume percent with an 18 day average The next higher window is gdx advanced decline Percent with an 18 day average And we talked about it on your show that, you know The gdx, which is the top window make lower lows and both those indicators made higher lows. Yes So to me that was about a bullish diversion And I thought we were at august lows. I thought that was a low. Well, then we they went we tumbled down And um And now we know we came off as last low like crazy And I put in my I think we even talked on your show that everybody was calling me that Right, you know, that's how bad it is and stuff. So I went and bought options And I bought those options on september 28th You know about a day or two right before the actual bottom bottom Uh, so I still got those options Um, you know when I'm going to sell them I I guess I'll be watching both those indicators on the bottom if they you know the clothes below minus 10 I'm definitely out. Yes, but if they get up to You know extremely high levels, you know, you know, plus 40 range You know a lot of times That's kind of like a sign of strength that couldn't get any stronger Okay sell them but right now even though we can kind of consolidating here We're hitting up against a 30 range on gdx with just some previous highs there Yeah, so I've still got those options. I'm up a couple hundred percent, but Yeah, I'm trying to figure out. You know, it's just a good place to sell it get back in a little bit later I don't know You know, you know, it's always great the gold market tim think about how many times I know how many times I get calls You know, you sell it. What happens folks? You sell it because you made money and as soon as you sell it, you want to get back in Yeah, you know it. Yeah, so Yeah, this is the daily so the dailies are bullish because Both, you know those two indicators are above minus 10 and then general trending higher So I slipped to the next chart. Okay. I have it Which is the weekly Yeah, and what I found out when the weekly either one of the the bottom window is the uh advanced decline for gdx But it's a cumulative So it just adds on to what you know adds on itself So it's a little bit different than a moving average and the next higher window up is up down volume accumulative the same kind of thing Okay, and it it works pretty good when either one of them You know closes above or below The bow and your band doesn't have you know either one it's a signal So sometimes you'll get one close above the other other one and right now Uh, two days ago both are above the mid bow and your band as I did this just one of them above the mid bow and your band By the way, that's a signal. Okay, but the need to hold above. This is a weekly chart So on friday tomorrow If either one of them are above the mid bow and your band, it's a bicycle on a weekly time frame All right, if you notice these signals can last anywhere from You know a month or two to six months. Yes The last signal was generated was in april and it's just now Tearing around on a bi signal so april to now is that wow both six months So that was a six month decline it caught Um, yeah, and the and he stayed below the bow and your band so Uh, so can it last another six months? Um You know, I'm thinking, you know these signals could You know, there's a pretty good indicator to catch a trend right and uh So it's something if you're an option player, you know, you you got a window of Of I don't two months to six months. This is an indicator good for that. It's a big number. Yeah, it's a big number There's no doubt about that. Yeah, it's a big number Okay, I know we don't have a lot a lot of time. We've got one minute left. Yep, and I want to go to chart Seven there we go. I have it All right, so we looked at the daily And we looked at the weekly And now this is a uh a monthly momentum indicator I'm still using the uh Updown volume indicator, which is the top window. I'm using an accumulative Updown volume and the bottom window is accumulative Advanced decline, but it's on a monthly time frame, right? So so these ones when they give a signal They you know, there's like a two-year signal. It's a big signal. The last signal we got was was in You know, it's like about january 2021 And it showed in the middle window is a gdx So it didn't pick out the top, but it's looking at a real big time frame. Yes, and so far we haven't You know closed above We kind of screwed around with it back in I'm with you. I can see that we're not above it yet But in this the middle he's looking for the middle Bollinger band there folks. Okay. We have you're right. Yeah. It's all in your band right now Both of them are below it, but you know this signal will be a little late Yes, once it turns it usually stays on this it doesn't whip around Right, and it'll stay on that signal for months Uh, if you go, you know, if you look back it gave a signal back in The 2012 top and never gave a bicycle until 2016. Wow, so So this is a good indicator to pay on the bigger time frame. No doubt. Well, listen Tim It's always a great education. You have a great weekend safe weekend. We look forward to speaking to you on this coming Tuesday All right. Thank you. Stay right there folks. Come right back