 Good morning and welcome to the weekly a market update with me Dave Madden today's date is Monday the 16th of September 2019 and the time has just gone 925 British summer time It's been a fairly negative start to the European session The big news over the past 48 hours was that there was a drones were used to strike oil fields and production in Saudi Arabia And there's a major disruption cause in the back of that the initial announcement was the some of the region 50% of Saudi Arabia's all production will be will be will be halted then as as the kind of story unfolded Saudi Arabia then announced saying that they had Nearly half of the of the production that was lost back on stream So things are moving in the right direction in terms of getting back to no quote-unquote normality But obviously we've saw a huge surge in the price of oil when all began trading in the early hour very late hours of Sunday, so we've made a move to the upside in the oil market Over the weekend overnight. We've also heard from China China had fixed asset investment figures out retail sales and industrial production figures and The they all came in below expectations And the industrial production figures fell and they're the lowest it's the lowest reading in 17 years They've been beyond I've even taken us back before the credit crisis and the financial crisis. So China's clearly slowing down and This surge in the price of all the time being so great. Let's be honest We have a scenario whereby China's The second largest economy in the world is slowing down clearly slowing down The straightest in the US and China granted back in the last week things were seem to be Moving in the right direction, but nonetheless if you compare to say to say a year ago or two years ago, you know trade tensions are Between yes and China are bad even though right in the kind of a few days ago They were looking to be moving the right direction. There's also uncertainty in relation to Brexit Just talking for session in Germany So all of a sudden a major jolt higher in the price of all Really kind of is not that is the last thing the global economy needs right now So you've seen make a start to the European equity markets 1,200 is doing a bit better than it's kind of little counterparts Because the surge in oil a certain old stocks will call the chair of the EP And just given the makeup of the 1,200 oil and gas stocks make up a disproportionately large amount So the underlying what's in what's what's weighing on other markets is actually in a way kind of been slightly being counteracted by the fact that a stronger role plays in Run of a way benefits the 200 So take a look now At the at the week ahead first of all the week ahead article can be found on our website cmcmarkets.com Under insights and then under news analysis scroll to that and you'll find this article here Talked about the the numbers China out overnight the Brexit cycle continues Prime Minister Boris Johnson is going to go to Luxembourg today to speak with the EU's junk law Junker Which we seem to be in a fairly similar situation And over and over again where Mr. Johnson says he believes the The they're gonna strike a deal by the same time No other kind of solutions to the to the withdrawal agreement have been put forward So keep an eye on the situation in relation to the news relation to Brexit It's all around us. So it's hard not to not to not to see it On Tuesday tomorrow, we have first quarter figures from FedEx We have UK CPI numbers coming out on Wednesday Wednesday, we also have the final reading of Eurozone CPI On Wednesday, we have first half figures from Kingfisher. We have the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday That's going to be important Seeing us about a lot of talk with the Fed cutting interest rates again They cut the cut in June there's been a lot of talk and especially if you look at the movement in the bond market The US government bond markets in the last few weeks That's going to speculation belief at the Fed are going to lower interest rates again But then again Look at the US economy. Well, employment is near a 50-year low Earnings are good and they're well above the inflation level on top of that the most recent core CPI numbers from the US Suggest that demand is strong. So there's a lot of demand saying that the Fed Shouldn't cut it all or maybe only do a small cut but you know Chances are that whatever the outcome is chances are present Trump will not be happy He's been calling for the Fed to slash interest rates for a long time And especially now in light of the European Central Bank and asking its stimulus package last week Looking ahead to Thursday. We have first half figures from next with the Bank of England Interest rate decision that probably be that's highly likely to be unchanged essentially the BOE We'll probably be sitting on their hands and waiting to see how Brexit pans out just because they don't they're likely to want to make a decision before The UK leads European Union and if things were to go badly if you know He's we've got badly in relation to Brexit where the UK does leave The bank Bank of England would like to be kind of have as much kind of you know firepower at their disposal as possible on Friday and we have we have numbers out from Canada. We also, you know Wednesday and Friday we have Canadian retail sales and inflation figures So take a look now at the some of the major markets starting off with the FTSE 100 So the broader theme of that the market is it's a subtlest upper trend Because take a look at the price action is be it's constantly above the charity moving average So things are looking fairly good last last Thursday the market got to a level not seen this is early August So broadly speaking, it's not very strong, but it's reasonably strong and essentially even even though we are We traded lower today and initially essentially while we hold above the truly moving average 72 11 it's out We can think we can get more confident that they're going to wider up for trend is going to continue And if you do you press on there from here and should we break above the last last week's high We could really get it back up towards, you know, seven thousand four hundred And if you go beyond that you could look me in the floor of this area here in a seven thousand four hundred and seventy It's only a really if you have a size of break back below the charity moving average Because then we'll be looking head back down towards this zone down here down around seven thousand and forty Take a look at what's coming out of in Germany Thanks partially thanks to the eurozone your European Center bank update, you know eurozone negative markets are in better shape in the 1500 So you can see you're very steady impressive rise From late August until essentially I said such a last week Last week that the taxi a level last seen in late July So these are quite positive fair enough, you know, obviously the tensions are high in relation to the Saudi Arabian situation So it's exactly major surprises. So at least move a bit to the downside But if you do because it's a bit further lower from here sport coming from in on the 12,300 mark or if you go below that But as you're from this one or this line here the water they move the average at 12,112 But the wider upward trend, you know It's likely to remain attacked even if you do drift in or the near term It's more coming from from this region the market has retraced bulk of the ground that was last between between July and Made August so as soon as the book is a ground to be made up It's likely that that's the kind of the wider upward trend is going to continue if you press on higher from here You can look interact with me 12,600 or up to the highs that we saw in in early July in around 12,655 It's only a relief kind of say kind of how the size of break back back below the kind of psychology board 12,000 mark could then we'd be looking at heading back potentially and towards this zone down around here on 11,853 Take a look at those coming over in the states the Dow Jones US markets are in quite good shape If you look at how much the ground that was last between late July going into and going into August nearly all of that Ground has been has been Retraced it's only on Friday people were talking about you know It was in kind of a within a within sight of the record high but obviously the Saudi Arabian situation has shaken things up, but nonetheless and Is the markets are still looking at the quite strong positions of the wider upward trend does continue We could be like me heading up towards 27,400 and a break beyond that could take us to no towards 27 27,500 600 and so on and so forth If you do count have continued uncertainty in the markets, we could drift a bit lower from here We could head back down towards this zone down around here Around 26,800. We can see that that area accents consolidation in the past And it makes them likely that we could see it be important in the future Even if you do true even if you do drop below that support could be found in this blue line here The fifth movie average is access at resistance on a support not to go So it might be important in the future as well and that comes to the play at 26,500 and 84 The Lucknow was going on on the S&P 500 it's a fairly similar Censuration to the Dow Jones or by wasn't a million miles from it's all-time high on Friday The bulk you know, there's been very much in the wider upward trend is still very much in play The vast majority of the ground that was last and in the Salah from late July into August has been recovered So the upward trend is in the market still look quite strong despite the fact that We're the market has moved a bit lower this week So if you can continue in the wider upper trend, we're going to be taking the 3000 and if you go beyond that We could be heading towards 30,000 I'd say 28 or 30 should be the wider upper trend to continue in the near term I think continue to be kind of uncertain in relation to Saudi Arabia We could see further ground last so we could drift lower from here down toward this blue line here The 50 moving average and that comes to play at 20 at 9,000 for sorry for 9,000 2,947 2,947 We could see I want a few occasions it acted at persistence along here and a support back here So the metric I see it important in the past it makes it more likely it'll be being important in the future Obviously, there are no guarantees And even if you drop below that Support could be found this on here down around that the 2000 not sorry. Yes, 2,900 mark So we talked about how some of the equity markets have declined On the on the due to the good of tensions in the Middle East But no gold is going to benefit out of it. So gold has been a massive upward trend quite some time At the beginning of the month hit a six year highs that tells you how kind of bullish the gold market has been recently We did but I should drift a bit lower some of the ground was handed back And lo and behold the market was already kind of bottoming out and Dori could have seemed to have kind of bottomed out even before the Saudi Arabian situation happened and Gold has managed to kind of push higher on the back of that So if you could hold above this this area here The loads of last week are somewhere around 1485 odd if you hold above this area here Could have 1485 or the low this this low here could have 1480 a slightly at the wider upper trend is going to continue I should be pressing higher from here We could be looking at it retesting Heading back up towards the this over here in around 1555 1557 It's only really if I have a size of break below this area here At 1480 because that would be look actually hadn't losing further ground or we could potentially head back down toward this area here 1450 1453 down to around kind of 1430 this kind of zone down around here Now let's take a look at the market the markets which I'm Biggest story of the day So here's in a daily chart you can see here given indication how much of a gap was created when the market opened higher That last night and they're actually at a very briefly the mark all up to a level last seen That this is on the break through market last seen in late May. So give indication of really how Really indication of how bullish the market actually is but if you just take a look I think I see a five-minute chart you can see mark This is Friday's clothes gap tire and has been drifting lower So we have been given back some of the ground now One of the calmest misconception that analysis is that gaps are always filled they're not always filled But they are often filled so it is possible that the oil market could drift lower Fall back below for the this area here and possibly actually kind of feel this candle potentially Feel this gap rather fill this gap before continuing any kind of before looking to kind of press higher again So in the very kind of short term we saw there on the template chart We can see that at the market massive gap to the upside, but it has been pushing lower So we could look at tripping a bit further lower before we actually for potentially moving higher again So we could head back down for this red line here to turn the moving average, which is 64 spot 29 We can see in a few occasions and access resistance nicely not so long ago And therefore it's possible that I might act as support in the near term And if you do manage to do this wider upper trend those managed to continue We could be looking at retesting 69 and then it kind of heading back up towards 70 and in this area here 72 Take a look at Brent WTI service duration WTI whereby The market jolted higher take a look at I say 10 minute chart market opened higher jolted higher But it has been pushing lower So it's up on the day But it's giving back the gains that some of the gains that it made on the up move the upside So a similar situation we could see market drift a bit lower We're going to fill in some of this gap that was greater pension all this gap I was created and I looked to kind of get press on higher again So you could drift back down towards this yellow line here the water day moving average at 57 spot oh one I even ordered to turn the moving average in 56 spot 24 these areas here We could be looking at retesting in the near term And then if the wider trend continues because we're getting back up towards the cycle as important 69 60 dollars mark and they got to go beyond that you could be looking at retesting the kind of print The high print that was set last night in around the kind of 63 region So take a look now at the euro versus the US dollar So kind of wider trend is very much to the down side But we did get some decent support from this area here in around the kind of one spot oh nine twenty six area Market finder a few occasions to drive the euro lower, but it couldn't just quite by get there We've seen a fairly decent rebound in the in the euro versus the dollar So if we do look to Continue to hold above the kind of 110 area We could look at kind of extending the recent gains And we could look at heading up towards this area here in at one spot 1164 and a break beyond that could take us back up towards one spot 12 49 but if the mark if the wider if the market turns over on itself And they do have a break back below 110 That could be a sign that the wider downward trend is back in back in play And we could make a retest in this area here and then break all that to take us back down towards 109 Take a look now finally at the British pound versus the US dollar So wider trend very much to the downside, but this kind of here looks to me like to be a hammer formation So that's a market trove lower couldn't quite get there Bounce back since then very nice a very bullish candle along here After what appears to be a hammer formation the markets being closed held above 50 moving average And then we've managed to have a very very bullish day on Friday as well So we could look at heading back up towards a kind of 126 area on the pound versus US dollar, but keep mine You can't if the wider Downward trend really can't be ignored so the market does manage to turn turn over on itself And if you do have a break below the 50 moving average is blue line here in at one spot 22 77 That could be the sign a wider downward trend is back in play I would could be looking at any back down south of one spot 20 That's all as far as that's it as far as charts are concerned before we go If you any comments to make in this video or any of the other videos we've made here at CMC markets Please feel free to leave review on the reviews. Thank you very much