 Hey everyone, this is Dan. Moderna and BioNTech each drop more than 10% from June 14th to June 16th. They have been recovering. What caused the drop? Where would they go in the next three weeks? Let's go over the details. May 28th, when I published my last video on the subject matter, I predicted Moderna to be at $200 a share and BioNTech at $230 a share by the end of August 2021. At a time, Moderna was at 185 and BioNTech at 204, quite a distance from my targets. And so yesterday, market close, Moderna was at 208, exceeding my target and BioNTech at 226, almost at my target. Just want to give you a preview. My new forecast is that Moderna will be at $220 a share and BioNTech at $250 a share by the end of September 2021. In the next few minutes, I'll be talking about the most important news that happened in the last few days and the new COVID cases in the US, UK, Israel, India and worldwide. I'll talk about the valuation of these two companies and I'll be comparing the different vaccines available in the market. Then finally, we will go into the charts and look at technical analysis. First of all, on June 14, Novavax said its COVID vaccine is 90% effective and they plan to submit the data to FDA in a third quarter for emergency approval. And that caused a major shock wave in the stock market as far as COVID vaccines are concerned. As you can see, we start from the Friday before June 14, which was a Monday. And then on June 14, the news here broke out and the stock price for BioNTech and Moderna dropped quickly. And by the time it was June 16, BioNTech closed 14% below the June 11 price. Moderna closed almost 10% below the June 11 price. Intraday, both of them got even lower. And finally, they started to recover. May 6, Novavax announced that they reached agreement with GAVI, which is an organization for procuring COVID vaccine for developing nations. And Novavax is supposed to deliver 350 million doses beginning third quarter of 2021. They will ultimately deliver 1.1 billion doses of vaccines to COVAX. In the meanwhile, another vaccine that's being in development, CuroVac, failed in the phase three trials with only 47% efficacy. Moderna signed an agreement with UNICEF to provide 34 million doses of vaccine in the fourth quarter of 2021. And they have the option to supply up to 466 million doses in 2022. And then on June 16, it was announced that the US government purchased additional 200 million doses of Moderna vaccine. So far, the US has purchased the total of 500 million doses. BioNTech on June 10 announced that they will provide 500 million doses of vaccine to the US government for donation to the poorest nations in the world. One thing Ruthie mentioned is that the US government purchased the vaccine at not-for-profit price. And then earlier in May, BioNTech received the first authorization in European Union for the vaccine to be used on adolescents ranging from age 12 to 15. And that was on May 28 when it got the interim approval. In my last video, I showed this particular table indicating how many different doses have been under contract for 2021. You can see that if you add up all the vaccines that have been committed for 2021, it will cover 55% of the world population. That's not including Novavax, because at that time Novavax was still in phase three trials. Now with the positive result announced from Novavax, if we were to include the dosage from Novavax, the number of doses under contract by all these companies will already cover 64% of the world population for 2021. For 2022, we already know there will be additional production capacity from BioNTech and Pfizer covering 4 billion doses. And Moderna announced a total of 3 billion doses for 2022. And then Novavax recently signed a contract with COVAX for 1.1 billion doses. If you add up these new numbers with the 2021 numbers, we will see that the number of doses under contract for 2022 will cover 87% of the world population excluding Novavax. And including Novavax, it'll actually cover 102% of the world population. That will be more than enough. And that's why the whole discussion about waving vaccine pattern is a move point, because the leading vaccine makers already aggressively line up production agreements around the world to ensure that there will be enough supply for the entire world, and they've been selling the vaccines to the developing nations and not for profit prices. In the meanwhile, the reasonably high prices for the vaccines are still protected for developed nations. And that's good news for the stock owners of Moderna and BioNTech. If you like what you've seen so far, I'd like to encourage you to click the like, subscribe, and notification button. That'll encourage me to make more videos like these, and also it will help the YouTube algorithm to direct more viewers to my channel. Thank you very much. Let's continue. I've been showing this vaccine comparison slide in my previous videos from Moderna and BioNTech, so I don't want to go over every single point. If you want to look at the details, you can do a screen capture of this. The gist of it is that we have all these different vaccines already available in the market. And then for this video, I added Novavax, which is a two-dose vaccine, selling for about $16 per dose, and it will probably get approval in the fourth quarter of 2021 from both the US FDA and from EU. But overall, Moderna and BioNTech are still the best defense against COVID-19, although Novavax is a fairly close competition, so I'll be watching the development from Novavax very closely. Let's look at the COVID cases in the United States. So far, 53.4% of US population have already received the first dose, and 45.2% of the population have already been fully vaccinated. The number of daily new cases has been going down dramatically. The US uses the BioNTech vaccine, the Moderna vaccine, and some Johnson and Johnson vaccines. Let's look at Israel. They have 60.7% of the population having received the first dose, and 56.9% of the population who are fully vaccinated. The case count has been zero for the last couple of weeks, and that's a very good development. They've been using primarily BioNTech and a little bit of Moderna vaccine. Let's look at UK. It's a little bit different story, even though they have 64.6% of the people receiving the first shot, and with 47.1% of the population fully vaccinated. But you can see that the case count has been creeping back up in the last two, three weeks, and it's approaching 10,000 cases a day, which is pretty substantial. And they've been using the BioNTech vaccine with AstraZeneca, and these two are the primary vaccines they use, and they also use a little bit of Moderna, and recently they also approved Johnson and Johnson. The good news is that the death rate has been still very low. That means, even though more people have been testing positive recently, that the infections have not been fatal. Why is this happening? Why are more people getting infected? There's an article on Markowitz that talked about the Delta variant, which was the variant first discovered in India. Apparently, this particular variant is a lot more contagious than the original variant. It looks like the newly infected are mostly the younger people who are less likely to have been vaccinated, and that's why they've been getting sick. In the meanwhile, they found that 99% of new cases in the UK belong to the Delta variant, whereas in the US, only 10% of the new cases belong to the Delta variant. That could be foreshadowing what's going to happen in the US, but let's hope that then we will find a way to contain the Delta variant effectively in the US and in the rest of the world. Let's look at India. For a while, India was in pretty bad shape, as you can see back in March and early April, the case count was climbing very quickly and reached a peak of about 400,000 new cases per day, but in the last few weeks, it's been going down dramatically. The interesting part is that they only have 16.7% of the population having received the first dose, and only 3.8% of the population having been fully vaccinated. So what's causing the drop? Actually, I've been doing the research and still I don't have a full answer yet. At this point, I've got to be honest with you about that. Oh, by the way, so far, India has been using the AstraZeneca vaccine, and the Covaxin made in India as well as a Russian Sputnik 5 vaccine, which was approved recently. It was this BBC article saying that it appears that the vaccine, it appeared that the COVID cases have peaked in certain states, but it's just starting to grow in some other states. And also because the infection is mostly now spreading in the rural area, it's not easy for them to get the accurate case count. One possibility is that maybe the virus has burned through a large part of the population already and therefore causing herd immunity in some parts of the country. So far, it's too early to tell exactly what's going on, but let's just be happy that the daily case count has been going down. But I don't think we're at a point where we are saying that we don't need vaccines anymore. I still believe that the world needs more vaccines to be produced by companies such as BioNTech and Moderna, and that's why I believe the two stocks are still going to be pretty strong. Now if you look at the worldwide daily new cases, even though it's been going down, but the most recent count is still more than 279,000 new cases a day, that's still pretty serious, and that's why the world still needs more vaccines. Let's look at the professional analysts' opinions about these two companies. Now I'm comparing today's ratings with the ratings back on May 28th when I published the last video. Of course, yesterday's closing price was $208, and today actually the price picked up a few more dollars already. And my target is at $220. Yahoo Business didn't change a high rating still at $246, but increased the average rating from $178 to $181, and the low rating remains at $83. Lewis Nivellia has maintained his overall A rating, which is a strong buy, and he upgraded the fundamental rating from C to B. TipRanks.com gives them a moderate buy, increased the high rating from $231 to $246, they increase the average target from $177 to $194, and maintains a low target of $100. CNN Money maintains a buy rating, the high target got increased from $231 to $246, medium remains the same at $190, and low target remains the same at $83. For BioNTech, the closing price yesterday, June 21st, was $226. As of now, the price already picked up a few more dollars, that actually at $235 at around 2 p.m. on June 22nd, went up $5 already from yesterday. Yahoo Business' high target is $237 unchanged. Average target went down from $195 to $193, and the low target remains at $108. Lewis Nivellia, overall rating A, strong buy, and the fundamental rating got improved from C to B. TipRanks.com is still a moderate buy, the high target is still at $240. Average target went down a little bit from $186 to $182, and the low target remains at $133. CNN Money does not offer any forecast for BioNTech. Let's look at my own valuation. This is the valuation I showed in my May 28th video. First of all, I took the average PE ratio from the top pharmaceutical companies. I determined that the average PE ratio of 12.4 is a reasonable number to use for Moderna and BioNTech, and I assume a net margin of 33%, which is a net margin for Regeneron. And based on a 2021 confirmed contract and the number of doses they expect to sell for the next two years, I arrived at the stock price of $200 a year. As you can see, $200 a year is a very conservative number, looking at my calculated numbers here. And recently, because Moderna announced that they were getting ready for 3 billion doses of production in 2022, and my calculation was based on only about 1 billion doses. With the additional contract announced with the US and other countries, I think the number would definitely go up, and that's why I'm increasing my targeted $200 a year. Let's look at BioNTech. This is the calculation I showed back on May 28th. Again, I used the average PE ratio of 12.4, 33% net margin. And then based on the existing contract and what they expect to produce in 2022 and beyond, which is 4.0 billion doses, then I arrived on May 28th, my target of $230 a year. Again, this was a very conservative estimate compared to my calculated numbers. At this point, because of the positive developments, I'm increasing my target to $250 a year to be reached by the end of September 2021. Let's look at the charts. This is a daily chart for the last six months. The candlestick chart is Moderna. The yellow line is BioNTech, and this red line is SPY, reflecting the standard input 500, and QQQ, reflecting the NASDAQ 100. As you can see, both Moderna and BioNTech have outperformed the broad market, and with BioNTech going up 112% in the last six months, and Moderna going up about 50%. For the three-month chart is Moderna, BioNTech, SPY, and QQQ, still BioNTech outperform Moderna, and both of them outperform the broad market. If you look at the last 30 days, looks like Moderna has overtaken BioNTech, and both of them are still very impressive compared to the broad market, and that's why I'm so bullish about these two stocks. Let's deep dive into BioNTech. From this daily chart, you can see that it's been making higher highs and higher lows. Definitely, that's a very bullish trend, and on June 14, the news about Novavax knocked it down a little bit, but it started to recover. We see this overboard warning signal from RSI back in the beginning of June, and so far the RSI is within reasonable limits. DMI just flashed a buy signal as of yesterday, and MACD so far is still in the bearish zone. Hopefully, it'll turn bullish and flash a buy signal pretty soon. Let's look at a short interest ratio. As of yesterday, market closed, the short interest ratio was less than 10%. That's very low. If you look at historically how the short interest ratio correlated with the stock price, we can see that whenever the short interest ratio got below 12%, then we had a high probability of hitting a short-term peak, then the stock price would drop a little bit and then recover after a few days. We're at a point where people might start to take profit soon. That's why I'll be watching my BioNTech Moderna holdings very carefully, and I'll sell when it starts going down again. Then I will buy back the shares at a lower price later. If you look at the hourly chart, then we can try to see where the support and resistance levels are. And by the way, I bought more shares of BioNTech as of yesterday morning before market open. Actually, I bought at about $215.30, and since then it's gone up quite a bit already. I also sent out the text message from my tutor account saying that I bought BioNTech. So if you're interested, please subscribe to my Twitter account. That way you can receive my instant updates when I make major trades or maybe when there's major development related to the stocks that I track by way of my YouTube videos. Let's look at the support points. I see support at 216, which is right here. And that coincidentally is also the 20-day simple moving average. So that'll be a very strong support point. The next level down is 211. Here in the next level down is 206. And then the next level down is 188, which is a lower bonus demand for the next couple of days. For resistance, I see the next level 227, which was actually around the closing prices of yesterday. And of course that has been penetrated. So we're definitely above that already. The next level up will be 235 here. The next level up 242. And then next level will be 247, which is the upper bonus demand for the next couple of days. And then of course 252, which is the all-time high. Let's look at Moderna. This is the daily chart. We see Moderna making higher highs and higher lows. That's a very bullish pattern. And it came down and then started to turn upward as of yesterday and this morning continued to go up. We saw the overbought signal here from ISI pretty much in the beginning of the month, but now it's within reasonable range. DMI, flash buy signal, MACD, similar to BioNTech is still in the bearish zone, but today it will probably turn positive by the time the market closes. Let's look at a short interest ratio similar to BioNTech. It's at a very low point, about 11%. And historically whenever we have such a very low short interest ratio, we have a high probability of hitting a short-term peak and then the stock price would drop for a few days before it recovers. That's why I'm very careful about watching the stock price and I'll be ready to sell some of my shares to lock in my profit when it starts dropping in the next couple of days. Let's look at the support and resistance levels for Moderna. In my last Moderna video, I used this Fibonacci extension drawing and it turned out to be quite accurate for predicting these critical points for the stock price. This point is the maximum for the Fibonacci extension chart and this point is the minimum for support levels. The next one is 201 which is right here at 23.6% Fibonacci extension and the next level down is 189 that was this peak achieved on around March 4th and then the next level down is 174, next level down 161 and then 147. For resistance levels, the next level is 208 which was the closing price yesterday and actually the price penetrated that level. It's heading towards the next resistance level of 213 which is at about 38% Fibonacci extension and the next level up will be 219 and that's the 50% Fibonacci extension. The next level up is 227 which is the all-time high achieved in the beginning of June and the next level up is 237 100% Fibonacci extension. I'd like to encourage you to subscribe to my Twitter account because if there's any major news that breaks out that might affect the stock prices, I will either post an updated video or if I don't have time to post an updated video, I will send out some information by way of my Twitter account. As usual, you can send me your comments, questions and suggestions by way of my Twitter account as well as my YouTube channel. If you like what you've seen, I'd like to remind you to click the like, subscribe and notification button. Thank you very much. Let me recap my price targets. I expect Moderna to be at $220 a share and BioNTech at $250 a share by the end of September 2021. What are my strategies in light of what we've seen so far? I will buy Moderna or BioNTech when the price pulls back at the peak by more than 5% to 10% and find support. That was exactly what I did yesterday when I bought BioNTech and I sent out a message from my Twitter account to my subscriber notifying them that I just bought BioNTech and the reason why I bought it. And the price drops significantly due to news events. I will update my fundamental analysis and we'll post new video or if I don't have time to produce a new video, I will send Twitter updates to my subscribers. I will definitely continue to monitor the short interest ratios because I believe the short interest ratio is a little bit low at this point. People are prone to do profit taking when the short interest ratios are this low. And that's why I expect a little bit of a price drop for both stocks in the next 2-3 days. As usual, I will not pump the stocks relentlessly just because I own them. There are times in my videos that I tell my subscribers that it's not time to buy any more Moderna or BioNTech stock that they should just wait until the price starts to recover. In the meanwhile, if I do sell my stocks to lock in my profit, I will send out Twitter messages to notify my subscribers. I'd like to remind you that I'm not a financial advisor. I share my stock trading strategies for educational purposes only. You should make your own decision with regard to buying or selling stocks and you should definitely consult with your financial advisors before you do so. Well, this is about the rest of my video for now. I will chat with you again in the next few days. In the meanwhile, I'd like to wish you the best of luck with your financial investments. Have a wonderful day.