 Good morning. It is Thursday 15th of August. I hope everyone is doing well. As you can see to the side of me, quite the blood bath we had yesterday, absolute sea of red. The dowel, I was getting alerts on my watch saying down 700, down 750, down 800 at the close for the dowel. And we're going to have a look at some of the reasoning behind that. Of course this idea of really a build up of multiple factors leading to people to get very apprehensive about the future for the global economy. That's kind of the overall bottom line summary. Led by things like the inversion of the yield curve, which yesterday of course we saw this. Which is the, not just the US 2s, 10s, but the UK as well, both moving for the first time since the financial crisis into inversion. So once again, just given the historical significance of when this tends to happen in the post-war era of what this means then for the kind of near term horizon. Typically we have a recession looming and as we're going to run through the headlines, they're certainly, you're not short of evidence to support that argument if that was your view of financial markets. A few things though to have a look at the charts this morning. Things obviously have settled. It's almost like a bit of a rerun of this time yesterday. When we had kind of big moves and then we kind of had this kind of eerie silence if you like before then the market shows its hand and it goes again. And I do think that potentially we could be in for another situation like that because as we're going to look at the economic calendar is particularly busy today. And there are a number of interesting data points in particular coming out of the US. And when we are in this situation of the interesting moves we've had in markets, this pickup in volatility and then also the fact that we're still in this uncertain period of what are the Fed going to do. Irrespective of the fact that they've talked about this mid-cycle adjustment, the data points given how many important ones are coming out this afternoon. It could be quite telling in combination with this recent kind of the market being spooked by the inversion of the yield curve as to market pricing around the size of the cut to come next month from the US. But then how many cuts to come in the future as well. But just having a look at these charts this morning, currency markets are pretty quiet actually. The dollar index in fact is absolutely flat, largely reflected on both major pairs here in the top left charts on my shared screen. Got gold at the top, finding a little bit of near term support by areas of where the price responded to late yesterday London time. So towards the back end of the US session and also we've retested that this morning which lines up with the pivot in the future space in gold. That about five bucks. T-notes as well just drifting a little lower at the European Open as equities have just kind of risen off those initial, the overextension of the move somewhat yesterday. Now looking at the sell off yesterday, there's a couple of interesting things here or observations. For one, really this is looking at the near term price action and that being of the last 24, 48 hours. We had this delay of tariffs of course and that was that really extreme move that we had because just given the timing at around the open on Wall Street, really sharp move higher in US equities. What was interesting yesterday was the idea and this is when I think sell offs in US equities can start to see potentially a rerun of those bigger retracements that we've had in markets over the course of really. This is a daily continuation now. Those periods of selling that we had in February of 2018 or Q4 of 2018 or May of this year and then the last kind of move that we've had at the beginning of the month. But what I think is quite interesting is that it's not one dimensional move kind of catalyst by one piece of news and immediate move. I think when you get those big shifts, it comes when the whole herd kind of changes focus and the tipping point almost falls into the more bearish category and that reflects on price in a more graduated way. So you can see here yesterday you had from really the European entrance, US equity futures and Europe followed in suit. So this just continued to drift south all the way through the session. You had the open on Wall Street and the selling just continued. Obviously breaches of key technical levels help exacerbate the price action. But the point being here is that this is when I think sell offs can be perhaps a little bit more consistent from a multi-day point of view. It's when you've got this now it's more of a herd behavior trades than it is in just a one quick fast money speculative kind of trade on the back of a headline. So interesting now where we go and I know Sam's going to look at this in a lot more detail but the pivot level and the S&P which was the low point that we had before the positive comment that came out of the USTR about delaying the tariffs as that was an area of support that will now be resistance that coincides with around that pivot. So again talking to Sam, do we think we want to just get in short and follow the market lower? Really I think in this situation you're best served just letting the market play out and then just seeing how it reacts at these key levels. So identifying those levels but then seeing how the market reacts around them. Whether or not we could break then the classic to then try and follow the market back up or to see how it responds and then perhaps then at these other lower down points looking to re-enter to follow the move back down again. It really is not a case I think of forcing your opinion. I definitely don't feel as comfortable as it did the last time this happened to think that well the move of 800 points has got to come back a little bit. It's a bit extreme. I would say that there's plenty of things negative that are going on at the moment that might sway your opinion that this could continue. Just transitioning my screens actually over for one second. There was one thing I wanted to do to draw out as a concept. So this is if I just move this over if you can see my screen okay. If I just draw out this because this is one thing I think that's important from a strategy points of view to some degree. I tend to break up the day into meaningful sections and so let's say this is London time. This is 6 a.m. I would say this is then midday. So let's say 12 4 30 so then you've got the cash equity close and then you've got the extension in the US session to get to basically 9 p.m. Now how the market and let's just combine all the different assets. Now the volume profile for different markets and when are they traded is slightly different. I'd say the Forex market perhaps slightly earlier. You tend to get the big banks institutional flow and consequently the pickup on the charts for about 6 30 ish. Equities obviously a little bit later cash open none until 8. But this is what we tend to see is just a general kind of profile of the day. So 6 a.m. and 6 30 things start to pick up and then once it gets to let's say 7 8 9. We've we're already hitting the European kind of maximum of the day. That will include then all of the pre-market reaction to news in this kind of area here. You think corporate earnings anything like that. Economic data is then littered in through the Eurozone and the UK which kind of finishes at around 9 30. Then what tends to happen is you have a little bit of a lull as then much of the morning's business is done lunch happens and so on. And then the US start to come in around 11 30 and then obviously with both UK US and Europe now in the market as we get to our midday. That's when you have the biggest kind of peak of market activity. You have the 130 data kind of here in the 3 o'clock data follows and then you get the cash close in Europe and then Europe leaves and it falters early to pick up then towards the end of the day. Now one of the very important periods of the day I feel is really this period here. I just draw a dotted line. Now I tend to break this up into almost phases of a day. So when you come in at 6 a.m. this is when you know my job would be to interpret the news understand then the intraday sentiment. Looking at the charts technically combining that with your fundamental directional biases and then understanding what it is you want to trade. But by the time we get into the this critical this dotted line I think this is where market sentiment can often shift. Because that's when the US come in and the US often will interpret not only sentiment in a different way but that hierarchy of what they feel is really pushing the market as the main most sensitive story. It can often be different or they can have a different view. So point being of this this discussion is that I just want you guys to be aware of that kind of shift here. So I think this does have implications then for your execution of trades because if you're looking to execute a trade based on the information first thing in the European UK morning. I would say then when the US come in you want to be mindful of the fact that markets can change direction even though the information in itself hasn't really changed. Now this can often be the case when you know in part in the past when we've had episodes of say selling in the morning in Europe over Greece. Only for the Americans to come in and go I don't even know where Greece is and then they buy the whole thing back because they go this is massive value at these levels. Then the whole market goes bid. So these are kind of cultural shifts. This is why the market and we suggest to our guys that really that 11 o'clock kind of time is not really a great time to trade. You've got a kind of generally lower volumes. There's no real catalyst in the market. The morning's trades have kind of been done. You're waiting for the US to come in. And so you know you're in a market at that point that really isn't moving too much. Of course talking of an intraday sense here. OK going back then to the charts. Let's just continue our conversation about the news and then we'll hear what Sam's got to say. But let me run through some of the other headlines in light of the sell off generally that we had yesterday. Oil prices of course coming under pressure with flat this morning. We've recovered some of the sell off. We're trading though just a touch above fifty five dollars. So we have to continue to remain under some pressure in the crude market. Just sharing the graph here of the oil infantry data we had yesterday. The second consecutive back to back build. So not only have we got this growing sense of caution in the market about the kind of prosperity of the global economy. Given the signals that we're getting in the fixed income market. So demand being questionable at this point but then supply increasing. And the reason why this is important is because we had some really sizable drawdowns in the crude market over the period of May and June. And that's flipped in the last two weeks. So again it's kind of dual measures if you like that are weighing on the price of oil at the moment. The other thing of course that is heightening these current fears. We had German GDP so to recap that came in at minus point one percent yesterday quarter on quarter. So that's from the kind of hard statistics from the soft though. German ZW the lowest since December 2011. German manufacturing. Latest reading signal the steepest decline in overall manufacturing conditions since mid-2012. New export orders dropped the most since April 2009. You know this in combination with the very weak Chinese data that we've had. This all adds to this reasoning behind what we had materialized in markets kind of yesterday. And then this was another interesting one that I saw this morning. This was looking at European banks and basically their annual change in loan loss provisions. So if you like preparing for worse times ahead. And if you have a look at that it shows that European banks are preparing for a worsening economy by basically building up their provisions to levels which really haven't been seen since in the aftermath of the referendum when that obviously initial shock of uncertainty surrounding the result of the referendum. So again more evidence of kind of protecting for downside. Moving forward to today. What have we got on the calendar? As I said it is a busy one. Although it's a US focus in the UK there are a few things to have a look out for. I.e. retail sales. We did see obviously the UK curve also invert in the two's tens. UK retail sales today. The month-on-month reading expected at minus 0.2%. This previously came in at plus one. Now minus 0.2 doesn't really I would say scare me in any way. As you can see from this data set it does tend to fluctuate to a fairly substantial degree. The range on the bottom end is 0.5 and that would only put us back down to levels which would be akin to two months ago. So all in all it's kind of similar to the reaction that the market had to the inflation data. We had out the UK a few days ago where you have that initial blip which is really more I would say led by algorithmic trading. Just executing binary on the back of data. Point A being higher than B and slightly above the range and so on. It executes and then that's it. Because overall there's no real carry-through in this type of data not unless it's incredibly outlying because of the obvious thing that Bank of England is not going to change their decision on one piece of data like that with the obvious political stresses at the moment. The US though is where I would say the focus of the day is going to be. Before I go into the data you've obviously had Donald Trump the guy just doesn't sleep. I think he just lives through Twitter at the moment. He was commenting about China a couple of hours ago talking, good things were stated on a call he had with China the other day he was talking about the tariffs. He has though started to bring in a little conversation about Hong Kong which I think could be particularly interesting to monitor because the Chinese will have I feel zero tolerance to Trump saying anything about Hong Kong. And Trump knows this and I think he Trump will know that as well if he says the wrong thing over steps the mark on that very sensitive issue then it could jeopardize the trade talks that are ongoing which as we've seen he now has become you know he's kind of flipped it and after being very aggressive now he's seemingly being a little bit more positive. In his final tweet before he went to bed he basically closed it saying personal meeting question mark aimed at President Xi. So we'll see if there's any response that comes obviously not from China directly but from the kind of proxy of that state media journalists that we follow. Looking at the US data a few things then we've got retail sales that is expected at 0.3% basically just tracking very consistent from where we have been over the previous three readings. We've also got though not just US retail sales all coming out at the same time you've got that and then New York Empire State Manufacturing and then you've also got Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index as well as a few other numbers as well and then followed later by industrial production. Collectively I think this could be quite an interesting kind of slew of data to give us the latest insight as to really is this fair pricing. This being the federal funds futures and at the moment everyone is expecting 100% pricing in for a rate cut at this point for mid September. The idea being how aggressive do they get at this point 25 basis points is the majority view with a 76.5% probability. Okay I'm going to leave it at that. I think I've spoken enough. Let's get Sam on and see what he's got to say about the charts from a technical perspective. Thanks very much guys and have a good day. Hi guys hope we're doing well. We'll start off with the S&P to see the DAX and Eurostocks just gradually push higher and that could in turn help in stocks up to what is that key level today. The line in the sand if you like you can see and it's got it marked up here that low from yesterday. You've got the pivot there. You've got the breakdown from yesterday around where we're trading 2866.5. It's pretty important for the day ahead I would say and obviously if you're looking at that area as a point to get back in for us to drift down you've got more than one reason to do so. So therefore on the flip side if it was to break through I guess you could argue it's a bit of a zone as well with 73 but above that then we can really start pushing higher. To the downside no harm in waiting as well to see what happens should we break this trend that we're just starting to form across the board and this is obviously on the S&P but it looks very similar on the Dow Jones and the NASDAQ with those previous lows around the pivot points which will be obviously vital. To keep an eye on there but you can see here just starting to trend higher, got the trend line in got the key level around the pivot to have a quick flick over to the Dow Jones and you can see if I just make this onto a 60 minute that pivot point coming in just before that low that we had on Tuesday so similar across those markets and a similar trend line obviously from those lows just created now. So for stops that's what I'll be focusing on however obviously right now to keeping an eye on what the DAX does as we've been 23 minutes into that open it's just starting to push back up on the same side you've got the pivot has already been tested on the DAX with those previous lows and the first real test of it you saw a really decent push to the downside massively important level in the DAX not just because of those Tuesday low and the breakdown yesterday and the pivot today but there's also the low, the 6th, the 7th in the morning and afternoon so big levels to keep an eye on could really dictate play or trade I should say for the remainder of the European session. Speaking of Europe let's have a quick look over at the Euro really it's a couple of ideas here that I like the look of I think if we can get back up to that range that had broken so let's call it the 112th hand 12th hand or just before 111.92 those previous lows that we broke through yesterday finally I guess you could say that would be something that I'd be looking at as a good area or a potential pointer to get short we're also just starting to see us drift down we've got a key Asian session low that's about to get tested again but just putting this back on to the 16th minute because you've got quite a key level of support just below where we're trading is well at 111.51 so breaks of these points here 65 relatively decent moves yesterday's low and the low that we had back on the 5th afternoon could come into play but I would like to see us drift harder for a better place to get short for the Euro and the pound which threatened overnight to break a trend just happened at the volume just really wasn't there and you can see this is that trend line that I had marked up yesterday and then the break fruits coming when there was just no volume for it to really happen so we'd be taking that off now and just marking up the next levels of support and you can see if we were to get back down to those lows just how congested it would be and now we're getting back above that pivot you've got some interesting resistance at 2094 which you'd imagine would offer a bit of a hurdle but then we would really be getting to the top end of that range which I know people will certainly be keeping an eye on around 121.15 the highest from the previous day the breakdown that we had after breaking through the low the 8th as well to quite a key mini range if you like here for the pound and if we just move to the left hand side it was the similar kind of price action from the beginning of August the first few trading days we're just starting to have a smaller one in there now still obviously marking up that 120 handle just being aware that if we were to get a bigger move to the downside you've just got to be aware of the significance of that being that multi-year low quick look over to gold you can see just with a touch of equity strength over the last 15-20 minutes we have seen gold just drift down a bit key level to the downside you can see already been I guess you could argue tested yesterday afternoon's low the afternoon low from the 13th as well around 15-17.5 on the futures are we starting to get a bit of a trend as well let's have a quick look just from those areas of support worth having on as well interestingly we yes we did reverse the whole move in gold but not much more which is why I'm sort of on the fence of equities are we going to have a down day or an up day I just kind of want to see what's going to happen should we get to those pivot points and with gold as well you can see now we're pretty much bang in the middle of the last two days range so wherever you would want to say okay well I'm interested if we get up to 15.35 that double top maybe looking for a break for that or see what happens if we get to these trend lines and that key level of support that we've had over the last couple of days on different areas I think probably wiser than say getting involved say right now at the pivot for example but yeah certainly with gold the overall trend is to the upside I think that will more often more likely than not continuing just waiting for that better opportunity to get long nothing wrong with just sort of saying with these markets you want the continuation rather than the reverse back to get long because you're also getting the technical break of say a key double top I think that later on if should we get the volume in is a good trade up to that multi-year of course yearly high as well oil yes they come see a decent day to the downside finding support on an area not necessarily a level exactly but along with fifty four dollar handle was the previous days low and at a point where we've had decent support before we are like equities just reversing a touch but how important this area is not just the pivot but last nights at around half seven the high from there really really key and that somewhere I would you know have marked up as again your line in the sand above there yes we can look to drift higher and you're looking to maybe get to towards fifty five eighty five where we can see we broke down just after mid-day if that was to hold and then suddenly you're looking at these trend lines from this morning which have been so well respected that might be where you say okay well now we are looking to drift down lower targeting fifty four sixty nine and fifty four and a half so for a lot of these markets there's no key points just where we're trading now and it would be a case of you have your bias or you want to wait to see absolutely nothing wrong with that especially with equities we've traded last two days where you had a big up day big down day what's going to happen next and identifying these key levels is fine or looking for the continuation like with oil to the downside on the break of that or gold with a break of that double top is is not a bad ploy to have a look at quick look over to see how the DAX has gone over in the last five minutes I've been talking it's just come off a bit that pivot still remains absolutely key just putting this on to lower time frame the trend line which is there in US stocks not really there for European equities we've had a I mean we never really had that third test of it so I'd speak focusing on maybe the low of the days where if that was to break the US on those trend lines may well come in as usual any questions do let us know and if you are getting your A level results today good luck with those of course and enjoy tonight and any questions as I mentioned please do let us know