 Tuesday's MLB DFS slate is one that's defined by putting good pitchers in a really tough spots and Objectively bad matches because some of the top guys for tonight. You got Lucas G. Lido. He's facing the blue Jays Kevin Gosman Facing the white socks. We've got Frankie Montas going up against Houston. Those are some of the guys I turn to most often in daily fantasy baseball and those are the matchups I go to a lot of them least often and it's a tough balance this side, okay How much do I value the pitcher? How much do I value the matchup and then decide is this guy worth it? Does he grade out better than other options on the slate and decide where to rank them all things considered? It's a tough tough dilemma first day for shirts We'll break things down. We'll let you know where I come down on these guys and rank them all for MLB DFS Welcome on into the solo shot. That's right here on the fan dual podcast network in number fire comm My name is Jim Sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire comm here to preview Tuesday's 12th game of May in the slate with lock set for 705 p.m. Eastern for tonight in Chicago for the Cubs and the Brewers Winds are out to center at 13 miles per hour That is a bump down to pitchers and a bump up to batters in that gate Also, there is a chance of rain in course field for the Rockies and the Marlins It's also just 57 degrees with winds in from center. So Take regular course down rated a couple of pegs for the batter still very good because it's the park You know the the outfield stays big no matter how cold it may be. I Do think they'll be able to play the game despite the rain, but just keep in mind that It is not full-on Coors field for today still probably a spot will want to stack Well, she'll talk about in just one second But first a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed for not just the solo shop But also our PGA DFS podcast every week day or every week. I've got that solo today Brandon is on vacation. 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I know it does sound tough and it is tough, but It's mostly tough for DFS due to the low strikeout nature of the White Sox versus everything else Gosman is not pitching as well now as he was to start this year and it's likely because He's throwing fewer sliders. It's a pitch that generates a lot of whiz for him But it also lets up a lot of hard contact Gosman is scaled back on that pitch for his past five starts and the strikeouts are down But so is the hard contact. He's letting up just a 31% hard hit rate in that five-star sample The strikeout rate is down, but it's still fine at 27% and he has a 14.9% swinging strike rate So you could say that That strikeout rate may rebound as the sample expands Three of those starts for Gosman are on the road one of those home games One of the two was against the Astros. It's a really tough spot, but Gosman had 10 strikeouts there So I do downgrade him for DFS with his slide usage down I do downgrade him because of the low strikeout matchup But the rest of the profile is still great so I will have Gosman at the top of my list tonight despite a what I would say is a meh matchup against the White Sox here for the second pitcher, I'm gonna go Christian Javier and That to me is a bit counter to what I usually do because I typically downgrade Houston pitchers on the road It's a good pick park for strikeouts that can juice up their numbers and Javier is on the road tonight But I'm still gonna be hiding in large part because he's one of the few high strikeout guys tonight Who's in a good spot? He's facing the ace. They have an 82 WRC plus against righties and their current active roster They're ISO just 113 23% strikeout rate and they don't walk that much Which should help Javier Get good bang for his buck out of the batters he faces for tonight And we've seen Javier be fully stretched out now too because he went 96 pitches his most recent time out that is his second straight start topping 90 pitches and Even with the increased length Javier has still been getting strikeouts He's actually been increasing those somehow despite the increased length He has a 17.6% swinging strike rate in two consecutive games And then Mark is 14% in his games with this pitch count being up So it's still very high even as the pitch count has gone up He's still getting whiffs and that's translated to a 32% strikeout rate If I project Javier at 92 pitches for tonight, I got him at 7.1 strikeouts That's a pretty good number and actually ranked second on the slate behind just Geolito And his matchup is better than what Geolito has to so I do downgrade Javier for being on the road But even with that he is one of the few aces on this slate who is in a good matchup for DFS So I still think Javier Should be our number two pitcher for tonight behind Gosmin because of the matchup because of how good he's been pitching I think that's enough to make put Javier number two for tonight Now Javier is a value play here He's $8,700 which means the board is open for our third pitcher on the slate and to me It does come down to Geolito and Frankie Montas both those guys are in rough matchups Geolito is facing the Jays Montas is against the Astros I am gonna give the edge to Montas here by just a bit and the Astros are tough to be sure And I got burned by using a pitcher against them just a few weeks ago But I think Montas is good enough to still be in play despite this spot We're up to ten starts on Montas this year He has a 2.97 skill interactive eray with a 29 strikeout rate His fly ball rate allowed is 33 and those are great numbers all around It has led to some huge spike individual games Montas has double digit strikeouts in two of the past three games in the one game He did not get there He left because of a hand injury in the second inning But one of those games the big games came against the angels and they're the best team in the league in WRC plus against righties the Astros ranked 9th So they're very good, but not quite the angels the angels do strike out a lot more than the Astros So it's not a straight comparison not a one-to-one spot here, but Montas has shown He can shut down super tough competition That game was at home as was the Rangers game, but he's there tonight too The Astros had not seen Montas yet this year. So there are no familiarity issues here So I like it despite the issues It would be one thing if Montas were projecting to be the chalk pitcher for tonight I don't think that'll be the case. You know if he were chalk, you'd be able to avoid him But I don't think that'll be the case here against such a good team I've got Montas projected for seven strikeouts tonight. Again, that ranks third behind gilito and Javier That's good enough for me. So I'll be high on him and hope that others will not so I didn't go overall that game A's and Astros really good spot for pitching for DFS It is a bit warmer in Oakland today than usual, but still to 67 degrees. So not a spot We have to avoid but just worth noting that the temperature there is up a bit, but I think to me it's gosman one Javier to Montas number three Gilito for we'll talk about him in things to watch later on before that though Let's talk about the stacks and I mentioned that Coors field is not full Coors field But I think there's still enough there to like the Rockies for tonight I don't want to stack the marlins against serma marquez given the I mean, they've been playing pretty poorly offensively, but also I just think that it's a Not a good enough situation in terms of the weather to justify stacking against marquez But against with the Rockies facing edward cabrera. I could do that for sure now cabrera Not officially announced the starter yet for the marlins But craig mesh of sports grid has said that cabrera will likely be the starter So I trust craig I'll go based on his word and outline what I would do here assuming cabrera is the starter Cabrera did struggle in a short stint last year in the majors. He had a 5.31 skill interactive era mostly due to a ton of walks It doesn't seem like he sticks that issue yet because he's made five starts in triple a His walk rate there is 12 and that's led to a 4.56 era Despite a very good strikeout rate And we saw this with cabrera last year too where he had a 37 strikeout rate in triple a when he got promoted That did down to 23 percent in the majors his strikeout rate in triple a this year 32 percent So actually down from where I was last year his swinging strike rate is down as well And he did struggle with hard contact last year too a 48 hard hit rate allowed So I would expect cabrera to get some ground balls And we do want more balls in play than what he allows the walk rate can be kind of annoying because it suppresses balls in play But it's coarse field and I'm more willing to Stack in perfect situation than that spot and I'm okay with that here So the Rockies will be firmly in play At home for me for tonight Of the guys high in the order for the Rockies yonathan daza will probably be the lowest priority for me I can't say I won't use him because it is coarse field, but Doesn't have the best upside he's had he had entering last night zero extra base hits against righties this entire year He had to pinch it double last night against righty. So that stat is no longer true But one extra base hit still no stolen bases I will likely use him because it's coarse field me is very low salary, but You know, even if we get like sin hilliard lower in the order I prefer prioritize him over daza despite the fact that daza will be betting second hilliard probably sixth or seventh If he plays Garrett hampton if he plays I'd consider above daza as well some power some stolen base upside again daza Digest hit for an extra base hit last night against a righty. So maybe this will Wide the book and stupid and I will use him But he will be lower on my prioritization list than a lot of the other Rockies in this spot As far as the second second stack goes this one is good for weather because it is 95 degrees in Arizona And they're going to keep the roof open for today. So we want to stack here I think we can do so with the brakes the facing of bertha casayanos Who I've been stacking against for a while now and I keep thinking that it's not going to work Because he does some things pretty well But the results have been poor for a while now and he's facing the braves tonight So I think we should stack the braves here casayanos just really struggles to get strikeouts He has a 16 strikeout right this year and I think he knows that because He's been starting to throw more sliders across his past four starts for him It's a it's a low whiff pitch despite the fact typically it's more of a high whiff pitch, but I think that You know, we might see this this strikeout number continue to be low despite leaning on what in theory should be a higher strikeout pitch The strikeout rate for casayanos in this four-star sample is 17 percent It's coming with a 41 fly ball rates with a 39 heart rate The results this one against him too. He let up six runs the Dodgers last time out He's let up six home runs across those four starts. He's now facing the braves He'll be a 40 fly ball right against right. It's a great environment for heading for tonight. So The braves to me Very much a priority stack given all the factors lining up for them And I think that's a good spot to start buying into matt olson His salary just 34 to dollars But he saw as a 207 iso against righties the strikeout rate Manageable just hasn't been lost in the ball as much But his launch angle is 14 degrees across the past two weeks versus 10 degrees for the full season So he is still putting it on the ground more than I'd like But I think he's trending the right way So I'd expect the dingers to come eventually. He's only got I think five so far this year But I think that it's a good time to get in on olson now While the salary is doable at 34. I think to me It's a good time to buy so to me matt olson really good option for dfs for tonighting and good option going forward in decent spots Just because I'd expect the power to increase as we get further into the year There are a couple of other spots where we don't know the starter yet and I'll touch on those and things to watch But among the spots we do know the situation. I think the mats need to be an extra stacking They're facing patrick orbit who is still really struggling though There have been some more bright spots recently He's been going to more Sinkers and fewer four steamers of late and that's helped this fly ball rate go down to 30 percent across his past six starts That's calmed things down for him. He did hold this same mats team Scoreless across five innings in one of those starts But the broader sample and the peripherals are still concerning because in that time that's six start sample the era for Corbin is 4.46 He's let up five earned runs and two of those starts you let up three and two other starts He let up three home runs in one of the two one of the starts and they'll have two and another And that's because he's still letting up a lot of hard contact. So he's getting ground balls But the hard contact is still there. So when they do lock the ball It's going pretty far. His hard hit rate is 50 percent in that time And the strikeout rate is still to 17 percent. So it's getting better for Corbin But it's still definitely not great. I think the Mets are good enough to take advantage of that And it's super hot in new york for today, which which bumps up batters for sure So I think it's enough to make the Mets a really good stack here I talked a couple weeks ago about how I was pretty much out on Eduardo Escobar He was really struggling and that's not been as true against lefties as varieties because this is against lefties Is 250 small sample but a lot of fly balls as you've come to expect from Escobar He's been getting a couple more barrels the past two weeks. He's 24 to dollars I'll be in on Escobar here I think that's worth highlighting because I've been lower on him so far this year But I think in this spot against the lefty who's really struggling I will buy back into Eduardo Escobar for tonight. Let's move now to things to watch I do think Geolito deserves to be in your player pool I don't always get to four pitches in my player pool, but I think I will for tonight Geolito has a 33% strikeout rate this year It has mentioned that's tops on the slate for me his strikeout his strikeout projection But he lets up a lot of hard contact the Jays can be feisty in that arena Geolito's on the road and those downsides are enough to put him forth on my list but I think I will get to four here so Geolito to me Is fourth and I don't typically get to four pitchers But I think I will for tonight just because I think all four have a really good shot to be the number one pitcher for tonight The two spots where we don't know the starters yet are the Orioles and the Pirates The Orioles are facing the Mariners. I'm guessing it'll be a bullpen game Definitely not a bullpen. We need to avoid They do have two lefties in the bullpen and Keegan Aiken and uh, cnl Perez Aiken is on two days refs after he threw 46 pitches. So Probably available but but not definitively So I try to look for guys who can hit both lefties and righties If you decide to stack the mariners here and I'm okay with them for sure But just try to get guys who are good against both lefties and righties Finally, I bet the Dodgers are facing Mitch Keller potentially after an opener for the pirates Keller's been better than his results this year But he's still a low strikeout guy not enough fly balls not a ton of hard contact Or he's letting up enough fly balls for us to stack against him and enough hard contact But Keller's specifically doing a good job against lefties the numbers against righties are not as impressive So I'd bump up the righties if you go to the Dodgers here And would feel pretty good about them assuming that Keller is the starter for today But check back on starters to the Orioles and for the pirates to see if it is indeed a bullpen game and Keller For the pirates let's finish up here with our dinger calls And it's a couple of guys we've touched on during the stacking section for the boring one Matt Olson, I think that again the homers will come starting to get more loft in the ball recently Still hitting for some power really good spot for hitting for tonight with the temperature what it is So Matt Olson the boring home run call the fun one I will go Eduardo Escobar big fly ball guy playing in a park that is also super hot for tonight We want to target warm weather for batting We get that with both Olson and Escobar. So to me home run calls for tonight Matt Olson and Eduardo Escobar That is all that we have here for today on the solo shop But as I mentioned, we are back once again later on today to preview this week's pga tournament It is the memorial tournament. We'll break down My favorite golfers in each salary tier and get you set for that one over on fan duel.com Get that by subscribing to the number fire daily fantasy podcast So you wherever you get your podcast and if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well If you've got any questions for me I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan duel podcast network at fan duel podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your mlb dfs armets I hope you all had fantastic weekends. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down wednesday's sleep This has been the solo shot right here on the fan duel podcast network