 Coming up on DTNS. We look back at our 2022 predictions, which came true and which ones were mine This is the Daily Tech News show for Thursday December 29th, 2022 in Los Angeles. I'm Tom Merritt in studio, Colorado I'm Shannon Morse From the Atlanta area. I'm Nico Moncord and in Philadelphia. I'm Stephanie Humphrey And I'm the show's producer Roger Chang folks. Welcome to the DTNS holiday week 2022 predictions results episode where we look back on the predictions we made about technology all the way back a year ago in December 2021 and See how they actually turned out How's everybody feeling about your predictions as we as we get ready to to see how we did I'm gonna say 50-50 I'm not feeling too good at all I Got to stay positive Listen, I Like doing this because it holds our feet to the fire not enough people do this So I appreciate that all of you were willing to come and and say, you know what? Let's let's see what I said. Let's let's evaluate how we did It's not that you'll get it wrong. Everybody gets them wrong. It's when you get it, right That that's what makes it worth doing it. That's the beauty part. Exactly All right, let's start with you Shannon your first prediction that will cover was that Google would release a wear OS smartwatch Using their own hardware such as tense or and or they're tighten them to chipset So I would say technically I was incorrect They did release a wear OS smartwatch and it was made with their own hardware But the chipsets that they chose were not their own hardware They actually went with a Samsung Exynos 9110 as well as a core to cortex a 53 cores So the internals were not Google But the rest was I think we give it to her. What do y'all think I? Mean are we doing like half points? Can we do partial credit? I'm looking at the fact that she said we'll release a wear OS smartwatch using their own hardware such as She left a little wiggle room there. That was a suggestion. So you were technically right, I guess Yeah, all right. All right. We're giving you the point. You get it. Thanks. I appreciate that point What about this one late 2022 we'll see Google start teasing a foldable Android phone, but it won't release until 2023 Okay, this one's fun because in just like the past couple of weeks or in the last week We've started to see leaks of renders and dimensions of a pixel fold phone So we have an idea of what it looks like, but these are leaks So I don't necessarily know if Google has you know leaked these to the press Or if this is something that people have internally like kind of gotten through other means And we also don't know if these are factually correct yet But we we do know that Google has announced that they're going to be making a foldable in 2023 so that is something that we can look forward to but so far Google has not Specifically said like yes, this is what it looks like. So yeah, we've seen leaks and that's about it But I am I'm very excited given that this has just happened in like the last week. Yeah You're making it under the wire there. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, I don't know about this one though because you said they would tease it Yeah, I don't know if the leak counts as a tease. I don't think it counts Personally since it could it could be incorrect like we do not know specifically yet So I would say don't give me that point I'll be honest to myself Yeah, I mean, I guess if it's all kind of based on rumor and speculation you can't really say Yes Google's not actually releasing or teasing. So I Think we we may have to say no on this one. Yeah, here's the thing We you know pulling back the veil we do record this before the the actual absolute end of the year We give her a provisional zero Because we still have time they're still time. Yeah That's true. I mean they could come out with a confirmation on their Twitter account That's usually where they come out with leak confirmations So I'm definitely gonna be keeping tabs on it because you know if these if the specs are correct is looking pretty cool Yeah, I'm pretty excited about it. We'll update the show notes or run a scroll or something All right news Yeah, your last one here is log for shell will lead to several data dumps and leaks in 2022 from vulnerable servers that attackers were actively targeting before the patches became available This this was correct So we did have for example the cyber security and infrastructure security and agency or CISA here in the United States They even came out with information back in July saying that like 130 gigs Of data was stolen via these log for shell Vulnerabilities through VM where horizon so VM where horizon was the really big one that people were talking about over the summertime but there were also unpublicized leaks and Information internally with businesses that I don't necessarily have access to but I know happened That that included data leaks that happened from log for shell But given that that information isn't necessarily public The one that I'm gonna stick with will be the VM where horizon one that was a really big one So it has been a major issue and it continues to be a problem to this day Log for shell is still a vulnerability that a lot of companies have not patched Yeah, but given patches are now available The prediction that I gave in this video Was correct it indeed came correct within the first couple of months of 2022 So how are we feeling we giving her the point give her the point. Yeah. Yeah, I mean even if this is a little bit like saying You know the basketball is arcing towards the basket and you're like I'm gonna make that shot like you know This is this is a hard one to get wrong But if Michelle had started I believe in Like Q4 of 2021 so we already knew it was gonna be a problem and then it kind of expanded from there So, yeah, it was a it was a good one for me to put in there. It was a strong one. Yeah It was strategic prediction predicting, right? You get points for that if nothing else All right, Stephanie, you ready to go for yours? All righty, let's go First one you made was we will see another even more catastrophic AWS outage I I don't know that I can get maybe partial credit for this maybe yeah, cuz there were some outages There were some outages. I mean I was thinking back to the one that happened back last December that like yeah Completely obliterated so much, you know so many different Services, so I don't think we've seen something to that magnitude But we've definitely seen some fairly major outages specifically this month. There was something in Ohio In the eastern region that that affected AWS for about an hour and a half almost so You know, I'm happy to not take this point if that means that we have not seen You know outages on the level of last December, so you know, but but we've seen them So yeah, I mean that that's kind of inevitable But but I'm happy to not to not take this point considering we haven't seen anything as bad as as what happened last year But in your prediction, you did not say that it had to be as bad. You just said kind of straw Like what what to find it says even was that even more catastrophic? So so I think I was going off even more worse than than last year So I mean, I'm happy to I'm happy to be wrong about this one. I'm just gonna leave that one there I'm happy to be wrong. I feel like if you had just said we'll see another AWS outage You do you get a whole point? Oh, yeah, even more Yeah, do we give her a half? Yes. Yeah, I'm gonna say a partial credit. All right. Yeah, we'll do that Your second one was a couple got married in the metaverse. There will be more metaverse relationships divorce, I think I should get a point for this one. We're definitely seeing the rise of You know platforms and spaces in the metaverse where people can can meet and meet up and get married Marriage is still not technically legal in the metaverse, but people are having ceremonies there and you know It's become an entire industry. So I I think this one kind of has has panned out pretty well Yeah, and you put a question mark by that divorce that was not part of the prediction And that was just a kind of a bonus thought There so yeah, that would have been extra credit if that came to you, right Right. There's even like international marriages going on. I've seen yeah, right where people get married by zoom So that they they could so that they are they're able to get married even though They're not in the place where the licenses or something. I can't remember all the details But there's all kind of different things happening now And you know now people need a software engineer in addition to a wedding planner And and it's just it's become this entire industry, you know So it'll be interesting to see going forward if I guess, you know I'm not making predictions for next year But it'll be interesting to see if we find a way to make these marriages somehow legal because they are Sort of cementing or officiating the marriage through yeah and blockchain now It's still not the same as actually being married legally in any particular state But it'll be interesting to see how they make these legal if if if that's possible Yeah, as I understand it you have to do the paperwork for the marriage still the license and everything that Additional way and then you could have your ceremony in the metaverse because nobody really cares about the ceremony as well Right. Yeah. Yeah. All right. All right. Yeah, full point for that one Shannon. Nika. Yeah, I would say yeah Yeah, I think so. All right, all right Then the final one Apple introduces hardware that finally makes VR cool slash mainstream Now if we go off of finally makes cool mainstream Then maybe we don't get the point but you know, we are you know Apple is introducing a headset The date keeps getting moved. Yeah all over the place for next year. So I think the latest is is later on in the year 2023 Will it make VR cool and mainstream? I don't know about that just because I think the potential price point is still going to be out of reach for so many people It's looking to be around $2,500 for this for this thing. So I don't think that makes it Mainstream for anybody even the the biggest Apple aficionados That that price point is just too high to make this something that is gonna see massive adoption When it comes out next year, this is where we need rollover predictions. Yeah Cuz Apple hasn't introduced anything yet. So so you know like you you haven't got the details You haven't got the things Apple itself has not said a thing about this, right? You do investors, right? But I bet by the end of next year you'll be able to point to this and say nailed it, right? It just it was just they didn't make the deadline They didn't make the deadline, but there are you know patents out for Software and all this other stuff. So I think it's you know, it's gonna happen. It's gonna happen It's definitely gonna happen around the bend. Yeah, but but will we all what will we all be wearing them? Probably not big shrug. Yeah Shannon Nika there. Are we giving any points here? I'm gonna say zero, but it's a zero with a very positive motion You were ahead of your time girl You go Zero with an asterisk Of that's a really good one for yet. Yeah, yeah, who knows they may surprise us All right, Dika you ready I'm ready So your first prediction was affordability availability and mainstream adoption AR VR headsets of of AR VR headsets, especially for typical in-person events like concerts sporting events multi-stream in-person and virtual events Yeah, I gave too much detail I think so Yeah, because the the affordability kind of knocks me out because I didn't specifically say Apple I just said VR headsets overall and we did get the announcement from Facebook Well meta about the meta quest pro, but that's starting at $1,500 We just talked about the coming around the bend of Apple with their reality OS or reality want to wear it whatever they're going to eventually call it so In theory and I guess technically the headsets, you know, particularly on the meta side have been announced but I think the affordability really kind of knocks the wind out of the sales a bit because You know $1,500 for the meta quest pro the assumption is that the reality one or the Apple headset or Apple glasses or whatever they're gonna call it is going to possibly be around 2000 so the affordability the availability will be there the availability is there, but the adoption and affordability I think are really Unfortunately hard sells because not everyone is going to be able to spin that amount of money on A headset we have the current Oculus which is I think like $300 from the quest to the quest to that people have and use quite a bit but As far as you know, the I guess More mainstream type usage I think it's it's going to be a hard sell especially on the prediction of the affordability angle. So Kind of but I don't know. Yeah quest raising the price Was it was was unfortunate there? I think I'd give you more more credit on the adoption part than you're giving yourself like we we definitely saw more people buying these things there was a blackpink concert in in in Fortnite, but it was kind of a you know metaverse VR Presentation where if you were looking at it in VR, you could zoom in around there was some World Cup stuff that that's being done in VR I don't know Stephanie. You're the one that we just were like nope They didn't make it so you don't get credit. Yeah, how do you feel it? I think we all Felt like this whole meta and you know meta more than anybody probably felt like this whole metaverse thing was gonna be a lot Bigger thing than it ended up being and and who knows eventually where it ends up going but I think as far as You know concerts and sport I mean, I guess since we have seen those things I'd be willing to give, you know partial credit partial. Yeah. Yeah, it's not like those things have not happened at all I think they maybe haven't happened in the at the scale that you know, we may have all expected them to yeah But but they have happened so we got to give we got to give partial credit. I agree All right. All right, so we're giving you we're giving you a half point there. Okay. I'll take it Yeah, you got you got some of it, right? I think you could judge your next one is being true for all the wrong reasons, right? Exactly crypto And I guess the definition is what are we considering mainstream we have All of these bankruptcies of these crypto currencies we have these crypto Billionaires all of a sudden losing all their money some of them unfortunately losing their lives People, you know really just kind of tanking their Investments in this because I mean it's just been over this past year. It's just been repeated issues and issues with the way that Crypto is being managed how it's being handled, you know with the voyager It was like, you know, we lost all your money, but we'll give you voyager corn coins and it's like what am I gonna do with this? That's not equal to the actual dollar amount that I put in there So in the sense that everybody's talking about it There are a lot of people who have invested in it from, you know Celebrities and you know, the super wealthy down to your everyday man who has, you know, sank money into crypto So I guess technically it went mainstream, but not necessarily in the best way Yeah, what's more mainstream than scandal and seriously You kind of got to give it she didn't say yeah, you know mainstream where everyone would have some It's now a part of the public lexicon and definitely. Yeah, so yeah, I think I think that one gets a point. Yeah This this is this is a good example of how to craft your predictions, right? Yeah, well done the first one was the first one was a little bit too detailed All right, and then your third one was easy availability of electric vehicles including a massive increase in charging stations So for this particular one, I think we may have just gotten this in under the wire I believe middle of this week General Motors announced that they were rolling out a new program of Installing the first of 40,000 new EV chargers We have the Biden infrastructure bill to kind of point to where they allotted you know toolkits for a network of 500,000 electric vehicle chargers and this includes not just You know the larger cities and metropolis areas this includes rural areas as well So I think I think this one hit as well I Mean the only thing I'd pick on would be the word massive what wait, how do you how do you interpret the word massive? I mean, I'm not mad at that though Especially you know based on what what Nika just said about, you know, they possibly 500,000 new chargers 40,000 GM like that It could be massive. We're exactly we can make the case for massive for that So yeah, I guess in relation to where it is now or what it was Or that is if you look at the relatively relativity aspect, it is quite a jump in you know Every company most every car company now is coming out with the EV line if they don't already have it And it's becoming, you know, the the cars themselves are becoming more popular. So By default, you know people need places to charge a vehicle if they're using it to travel Around their state around the country. So I I think so. Um, I think it only from here. I think it will only get bigger Yeah, yeah I give her a point. I give the point for that one. Yeah, we're giving you the point. Good job. All right uh folks How did you do on your own personal predictions? Let us know by email We've got an email address. Send us your your thoughts or or anything feedback at daily tech news show dot com Now it's time to get to my predictions. So I throw myself on the mercy of the court Here we go the first one I said and I think we were all all Even if we weren't exactly like excited about cryptocurrency, we were all thinking it seemed to be going up Uh, you know in in in many ways. I said And this isn't a cryptocurrency thing, but it's it's in that realm Decentralized identity projects would get momentum and uptake So ways to validate your uh, your identity In in a web 3 quote unquote way like like some way that where your identity You didn't have to log into a central server controlled by a company. You'd be able to validate your identity some other way Are we including like pass keys and things like that in there? Yes Because Like if that gets me a partial credit then yes Pass keys are becoming very popularized a lot of um, a lot of brands are implementing pass keys For example, chrome is we just learned about that um on day of recording. So I I think that definitely gives you At least half a point Yeah, I pass key honestly was probably in the back of my mind But really wasn't what I was thinking I was thinking more about solid You know those like uh tim Berners-Lee's uh, erupt like verify. Yeah stuff like that But uh, if you're all if y'all are gonna give me the half point for pass keys, I'll take I'll take sure Yeah, and I mean, you know again momentum and uptake is subjective So it maybe didn't get the type of momentum you were expecting But but we are seeing things move in that direction. So I'm I'm with the half point. Yeah. All right. Thank you. Yeah I think that's fair. Uh, my second one. Oh my gosh When matter launches expected in june, which it didn't launch in june I should have just predicted it won't launch in june would have nailed it. Uh, it launched in october Uh, it will measurably boost smart home adoption, which it hasn't because it just launched in october I thought it would launch in june and it would boost things more We'll probably see that get boosted a lot more last or next year Um, we'll probably hear about it a ton at ces in january, but yeah I don't I haven't seen a boost in smart home adoption. It's way too early It was probably too early for it to launch in june and really this this was a incredibly aggressive prediction It was aggressive. Yeah, uh, but I think it will I think this is another role Like if I could roll it over then yeah, it will eventually I think have an effect It just I I it wasn't going to have an effect that fast But the fact that matter did ultimately launch and it is starting to Kind of take root a little bit. I mean, I'd give you half for that. That's incredibly generous For the fact that matter did launch and I think once people really Understand what it can do and the way it can improve You know, if you choose to go the smart home route I think it's going to ramp up pretty quickly once people really Understand, you know, what it is and what it can do for them. I agree. Tom. You should just roll that one over Yeah For anybody who remembers what rollover minutes used to be All right, this last one, uh, Stephanie Stephanie, uh, was very skeptical of this one when I made it And I don't I don't feel good about being right because of the reason but I said the chip shortage will end Uh, and uh, it turns out. Yeah, because of inflation and and a decline in purchasing power We've got chip gluts. We're all broke. Yeah, we can't afford to buy chips. We're plenty of them. Yeah Well, it's the same as nika's, um, you know cryptocurrency goes mainstream It went mainstream for all the wrong reasons and and same here that the chip shortage ended for all the wrong reasons. So It means that the chip chip cost will decline and we'll be able to build and computers again next year We have seen some gpu prices coming down, which is a good sign. All right, all right But you got to get the point though. Yeah But it's yours All right, uh, so, uh, now it's time to turn to sarah lanes predictions Hey, everybody, uh, sarah here with my predictions for what was going to happen in 2022 So I was feeling pretty good about this first one and I think I got partially right Certainly not all the way right, but I had predicted that apple would announce a vr headset this year didn't happen Still probably happening. Well, it is happening. Uh, but it didn't happen in 2022 But what I did say was The vr part of the announcement would be that there would be a big fitness plus tie-in fitness plus is obviously apples um Way to do a variety of exercise classes and yoga and stretching and meditation and stuff from more or less the comfort of your own home And uh up until now it's needed an apple watch. So at the end of 2021, I didn't have an apple watch I I do now so I've since uh gotten used to fitness plus and it's a really good product But uh, I uh, a lot of people are going to be left out if they didn't have apple watches or had some sort of alternative smart watch so, uh, what apple did announce When it announced the series eight apple watch and some updates to fitness plus earlier this year Kind of in its fall announcement, uh, big lineup was that fitness plus was going to be able to use without an apple watch So, you know, I was kind of on to something there. We didn't get that vr headset We might not even get it in 2023. In fact, it's looking like 2024. But yeah, never know But let's call the 25 right on that one Moving on elan musk stepping down his tesla c who was my second prediction didn't get that one, right? Very much a fail Elan musk has been in the news for the better part of this year to my anger and fury Not because for any reason just because sometimes I just don't want to talk about the same person every day But uh, he took over twitter, uh, is still in that Seat is still the tesla ceo. Don't think that's going to change Before the year comes to a close. So He definitely dominated the news But not for the reasons that I thought he would but in my defense. I did think that His problematic being in the news was going to lead him having to step down as tesla ceo Maybe because of you know, some sort of conflicts of Whatever and uh, no, he sure doubled down and just bought another company instead. Uh, so now we're in a very different situation Finally and this one was a little bit of a uh, a softball to myself, but I said nfts While now observed with caution would be something that we Used to do and we used to talk about and we all lost money on in 2021 I think that's pretty fair now. I'm gonna say full disclosure. I've never bought an nft I've dabbled in crypto just a bit Um, and I got a little sucked into it at the end of 2021 because there were just high valuations for things and people seem to be able to Make money out of thin air. Uh, that is has not been the case a year later. We've seen a lot of projects nfts among them really plummet in value and doesn't mean that uh, there's not still a lot going on there But I think a lot of people lost money and just said, okay Hold on. I need to be a little bit more careful about what kind of stuff I'm getting involved in in the future Like what is this? What you know, what does it mean to me? Who's the community? And you know, am I really a person who's buying art anyway? And and or we're creating arts You know, there's a lot of creators have have started to think a little bit harder about You know, how they fit into this um, this this whole world Yeah, and I think 2023 is going to be a lot more of the same You know, we're we're still trying to figure it out. But those were my predictions Uh, I think I I think I did okay I've never gotten three for three in any year that we've done this before so I feel fine How well do you guys think that I did? Yeah, the second obviously number two is wrong. Yeah No point for number two Negative because he got a he got a different CEO title and additional Negative one Um Number three, I think is is kind of um I think it's another one of those like I in fact, I don't even think it's it's right for the wrong reasons Like she kind of said like uh, it'll be something we did and talked about and lost money on and and those are all true So, yeah, yeah, yeah Uh, like are people still talking about NFTs because I haven't heard that Yeah, but she didn't say we'd keep talking about it. She said we'll do it. We'll talk about it and then we'll lose money Like if you want to get you know Into the semantics it it feels like It it feels like she's saying it'll be something we did and then forgot about yeah Lost money, but I don't I don't think we're I don't think we're gonna forget about them I think there's no around and everything. Yeah, but but I think that's it's it's um, I think it's accurate enough Yeah, I agree. Yeah, I'm with that. I'm with you on that. I think that's a point. Yeah, that's a point. Yeah, that's She's arguing for a half point on the fitness plus launch even though there was no VR headset to go with it So they did launch fitness plus But they tied it into the apple watch There's no hardware. Yeah, except for the watch. There's no you don't you don't need the apple watch They launch fitness plus so you don't need the apple watch anymore But there's no headset hardware. Yeah Yeah, right Right, because it but that but the but it was pretty much all about the headset You know, it wasn't about the fact that this plus was yeah, the predictions about the headset It's not about really fitness plus launching or not launching or She added the apple watch will no longer be required. Maybe a quarter point. Okay. Well I I mean if you want to get technical We love sarah. Like I I'd be happy with a quarter point. All right. All right. Yeah, it seems like We'll give her a quarter point. Yeah, the rest of all Because like come on Don't be green All right, uh, well, there you go. That is our our check-in on our predictions from 2022. Thank again Thanks. You all for being willing to do this. This is good fun. And I appreciate you being good sports about it We will now check in with roger chang for the final tally of how we did Roger So, uh, let's do a quick, uh overview shannon got two Stephanie got 1.5 Mika got 2.5 Oh Tom got two and sarah got one and a quarter Mika Wow, and I didn't I was not confident Right Yeah Way to go that wasn't confident at all. Well done And then now you start a consulting business. That's the next right, right Based on your past wins a future performance is no predictor of past performance You know and then yeah, and then you charge people $10,000 an hour. Yeah. Yeah I will say overall all of you did a pretty good job like of reading the Reading the tea leaves as it were and kind of extrapolating what would happen I mean, you know, some of the some of the stuff is like, you know, black swan stuff like the whole elan musk I think but but for the most part, I mean, you know, I think everyone did better than than they thought they would Yeah, yeah, I agree. Definitely. Yeah, nothing was nothing was outlandish. It was all all Within the realm. So yeah good good good stuff Of course, everybody stick around. We will be doing our predictions episode for next year with We'll be subjecting a whole new crew of people to the scrutiny So so keep your eye out for that in the feeds But before we go here a big thanks to everybody here For participating Stephanie Humphrey Well done. Congratulations. Happy new year. Where can folks find more of what you got going on? You can just follow me all around the web at tech life stuff I'm usually hanging out on instagram most uh, most of the time. So at tech life stuff Fantastic nika monford uh our champion. Where can folks find more of what you got going on? I am at tech savvy diva on all the social media outlets But for now you can finally find me mostly on twitter Okay, shannon morse. What about you? youtube.com slash shannon morse spelled just like my name I'm actually doing a predictions video which was very much inspired by dtns Where I brought on some of my tech youtuber friends and asked them what they think is going to happen next year So if you want to hear even more predictions after watching the dtns prediction video, check it out Excellent the more predictions the better. Thank you shannon. Appreciate it And thanks to everyone for helping support the show All year long in 2022. We could not have done it without you. You can always support the show at any level and we've got new reward merchandise Every three months you stay a patron You'll get a different item with lenper altas nine year anniversary art on it Dtns is turning nine on january 2nd So sign up now if you haven't already daily tech news show dot com slash patreon No live shows this holiday week We're normally live monday through friday for 30 p.m. Eastern 2100 utc That'll come back january 3rd at daily tech news show dot com slash live But we are back tomorrow with our tech predictions for 2023 with will smith Ayaz akhtar and andrea jones roy talk to you then This show is part of the frog pants network Get more at frog pants dot com Diamond club hopes you have enjoyed this program You