 Hello, everyone. I'll get started in just a moment. Hello, everyone. Welcome to Options with Doug, streaming live daily on Bookmap Discord and the Bookmap YouTube channel at 1.30 p.m. Eastern Time. Before I get started, I need to go through the disclosures, general disclosure, all Bookmap limited materials, information, and presentations are for educational purposes only, and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Risk disclosure, trading futures, equities and options involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Just a moment. Here's my contact information. If you have questions after the webinar or at any time, you can contact me on Discord at Doug P. On Bookmap Discord, there is the options-doug-chat channel. That's a great place to post questions, comments, and content related to the topics of this channel, the topics of the webinar. And then I'm also on Twitter, or X now at Doug Plus is my name on X formerly known as Twitter. The focus of my presentation and the focus of the options-doug-chat channel is options, order flow, the impact of options markets on stocks and futures, and the influence of market maker hedging flow on price action. I have a two-step process for trading and the first is positional analysis. I look at how traders and market makers are positioned in the options market and how those positions change from day to day to develop a thesis regarding the expected trading range and volatility for the day as well as the directional bias. And the second step in my process is execution. And I look at real-time motor flow and book map and real-time market maker hedging flow and Spont Gamma Hero to confirm my thesis and for setups for entries and exits. And when I talk about setups today I will be talking about setups and an underlying asset and setups can be taken with futures, shares of stock, or options. Questions and comments are welcome and I will be watching both the options-doug-chat channel and discord as well as the chat and youtube for your questions and comments. So please feel free to post your questions and comments. My agenda for today-what I want to cover-first of all go over news items, economic data events, and earnings for the week. Then I'll go through my positional analysis, my planning process. Then I'll review some setups this morning and then we'll take a look at the live market. So if anyone has any stocks they want me to take a look at when I get to the live market. Please let me know and I'll be glad to do that. All right let's get started with news items. So nothing today then tomorrow there is a consumer confidence number at 10 a.m eastern time and then on Wednesday the ADP employment report comes out at 8 15 a.m eastern time and then the GDP report at 8 30 a.m eastern time then on Thursday the PCE data comes out at 8 30 a.m eastern time that could be a market mover and then Friday is the non-farm payroll report first Friday of the month at 8 30 a.m eastern time and that could be a market mover as well. All right so that's the economic data for the week as far as I know no events or earnings for stocks that I follow this week. All right let me get started with my positional analysis now. So let's start with book map. We'll start with the SB 500 and before I dig into this chart I'm going to take a look at a larger time frame. This is the SPX in a thinkorswim chart showing 30 day one hour chart. Note the downtrend that began with the Fitch downgrade of U.S. debt and then ended and SPX started to move higher with the expiration on the August expiration 8 18 and that was a put dominated expiration a lot of puts expired and market makers could buy back short hedges. All right so SPX is now up just below the lower upper daily expected move I'm sorry the upper daily expected move so let me point out some levels on this chart. First I have the lower and upper weekly expected move shown with the dash purple lines and then the dash blue lines are showing the lower and upper daily expected move and all this information is comes from an options chain. It should be available in any trading platform that has an options chain just showing the expected move for any day. So this for SPX this is the expected move for today. SPX is up just below that level now and then also the upper lower and upper weekly expected move. All right let me point out the spot gamma levels on this chart. These are the dark red lines. These are proprietary spot gamma levels, levels of gamma concentration. These are available to spot gamma subscribers and shown in a variety of platforms. Again we're looking at thinkorswim here. That is the first level that I want to look at is the put wall. That's the strike with the largest net negative gamma that can be expected to act as support and note that level did move lower from from Friday from 43.50 on Friday to 43.00 today. So that level that potential floor for price did move lower. Then the next level up is the 4400 level that's right here that's a key level. That is the absolute gamma strike that's a strike with the largest absolute positive and negative gamma and then just above that at 44.15 is the volatility trigger and that is spot gamma's proprietary gamma flip level. Below that level market makers position on the gamma curve is negative in a negative gamma environment. Market makers have to trade with price to hedge their delta exposure and that tends to enhance or increase volatility. On the other hand above that level market makers position on the gamma curve is positive in a positive gamma environment. Market makers have to trade against price to hedge their delta exposure and that tends to subdue or decrease volatility and then finally the call wall is up at 4600 that's the strike with the largest net positive gamma and that can be expected to act as resistance and that level is pretty high up not not in play in the next few days at least. All right so those are the key daily levels as well as the daily and weekly expected moves for SPX. Let's go back to book map now. So for book map I have my own column of cloud notes here that I'm using to show levels so I have the SPX levels and oops I forgot let me take a look at one other chart just we'll take a look at SPX in a one day one minute chart zoom in just to show the levels on play for today sorry about that so I've got the volatility trigger key level 4415 acting as support today and then the upper daily expected move around that level acting as resistance and know that level is a little bit different than the upper daily expected move for ES. I use the different numbers for each instrument so the key levels the upper daily expected move resistance and the volatility trigger at 4415 as support. All right so that's the daily one day chart showing the levels that are in play for today and I've got these levels on my chart I've got my cloud notes here there's the 4415 level upper daily expected move for ES a little bit different than the SPX level then I'm also showing SPI levels at just the SPI round number levels all right so nothing really new here again volatility trigger acting as support upper daily expected move acting as resistance shifts and levels again for SPX the put wall did shift lower and for SPI the volatility trigger shifted slightly lower from 442 to 440 so slight shifts lower in the key daily levels for SPX and SPI I'll talk about setups in a few minutes so now I'm still going through my positional analysis just looking at the levels levels and play note there is a difference in price between ES and SPX and earlier today that difference was about nine points it's still at about nine points so ES minus SPX is nine points so this 4415 volatility trigger that is SPX that's shown at ES 4424 taking into into account that nine point price difference all right let's take a look at NASDAQ now so here's NASDAQ and Q futures in book map I'm going to take a look at first of all a QQQ chart just to see the levels and play for today so nothing nothing really stands out here there is a 365 L2 large gamma 2 level right here that has somewhat been in play not not necessarily acting as support for the entire day more or less support earlier and then price broke through and now up above in this 367 level not a gamma level but a round number level acting more or less as resistance so that is QQQ let's take a look at NDX so this and I'm zoomed out on this chart just to show the the 15,000 level that has been a key level it has been in play last week acting as resistance and now price is really oscillating gravitating around that level that has been a very important level for the last last week or so and I talked about that almost daily last week that 15,000 level all right so that is NDX 15,000 NASDAQ just like SMB500 trading in a fairly narrow range today all right so let's go back to NQ futures just like the SMB500 I have my cloud notes here here's the upper daily expected move acting as resistance here's the 15,000 level and there's about a 40 point difference between NQ and NDX so the 15,000 level for NDX is shown at NQ 15,040 and here's the QQQ 365 level and then the 367 level along with the NQ 15,100 level acting as resistance so really today not really close adherence to levels like like some other days and both SMB500 and NASDAQ trading in a range today all right let's take a look at and we'll talk about setups in a few minutes I want to wrap up my positional analysis by talking about first of all gamma notional this is market makers position on the gamma curve at the beginning of the day for SPX spy NDX and QQQ note these numbers are all negative SPX spy NDX I really don't pay much attention to that is so insignificant compared to the other numbers so for SPX spy and QQQ these numbers are all negative market makers position on the gamma curve at the beginning of the day this is indicating that traders are long puts market makers are short puts and when price drops and implied volatility increases they have to sell futures to hedge their delta exposure that tends to enhance a move lower and on the other hand if price increases implied volatility drops market makers can buy back their short futures and that tends to enhance or increase a move higher and that is a put banner rally all right so this is market makers position on the gamma curve at the beginning of the day and note these numbers are still negative quite negative for spy at 1.72 billion but less negative than last Friday let's take a look at a graphical illustration of how this may work this is the van a model for SPX this chart is showing market makers delta notional and how it changes that's on the vertical axis how it changes with price showing on the horizontal axis the gray curve is showing how market makers delta notional changes with changes in price only and then the purple curve adds implied volatility to the equation that's showing how market makers delta notional changes with changes in price and implied volatility so what this is showing is if price decreases and apply volatility increases market makers delta notional will increase when their delta notional increases they have to sell futures they sell es futures to hedge their delta exposure on the other hand if price increases and applied volatility drops they can buy back their short hedges and again they're trading with price in this negative gamma portion of the van a model all right let's check on price so first of all here's the the low of the day around that that's about as close as i can get that 4415 volatility trigger so not much of a van a tailwind here for the spx so what i'm looking at is the slope of this curve and that would indicate that market makers could buy back short hedges but not to any substantial degree so a minor tailwind if price moves higher and then if price starts to move lower if price broke down below that level market makers would have to start selling futures more aggressively so so far that day that today that level was did held a support and there was a slight slight van a tailwind for spx all right let's take a look at some setups i'm going to start with the sb 500 this is spot gamma hero this chart is available to spot gamma subscribers the white line is showing price for spx the purple line is showing the hero signal hedging impact real-time options and it's showing options trades and market maker hedging flow for a combined signal for spx spy xsp and es futures all combined into one signal so if you trade any form of the sb 500 this is the signal that you want to take a look at all right let's zoom in on this i'm zooming so that this chart starts just at the rth open remember this is a combined signal of es spx spy and xsp and of course es and spx options do trade before the cash open shown right there where the right where the red arrow is pointing so that's the 930 cash open so what this is showing is pretty much from the open traders were taking negative delta positions and we'll take a look in just a moment and uh we can see more closely what they were doing so this set up a nice divergent short so price oscillated up and down and then finally started to move lower right around 1030 the 1030 reversal as options traders were taking negative delta positions so this was a divergent setup it took about an hour to play out let's go take a look at book map we'll go back to the sb 500 so let's zoom in a bit on this chart and see what clues we can find at order flow for this short setup so we know that both the sbx and es were trading around their upper daily expected move so statistically there is a a likelihood of price moving lower notice in the sub chart here there was really no support for a move higher other than the first five minutes aggressive buyers coming in that show bother all the green volume dots those are buy minus sell aggressive buyers also a little bit of a stop run so the cvd showing that aggressive buyers coming in rising yellow line there showing a stop run up to that spy 443 level and then price moves lower so that was the initial move aggressive sellers notice during this time really not much activity no activity from aggressive buyers or stop orders or large traders with iceberg orders nothing to force the price higher at the same time we know that options traders we're taking negative delta positions so we're just waiting for really waiting for a good entry point for a short and that comes right around 10 30 again the kind of the 10 key 10 30 reversal time and price starts to move lower and as price starts to move lower aggressive sellers come in sell stop orders shown by the yellow line start to fuel the move lower and then large traders come in with iceberg orders as shown there by that ice icon that is a hundred uh that's a thousand contracts executed those are sell iceberg orders large traders used to hide their size that's also shown by this drop in the light blue line there so as price starts moving lower at 10 30 again we know that options traders were taking negative delta positions and then the aggressive sellers large traders with iceberg orders and sell stop orders helped to fuel the move lower down to the 4415 volatility trigger a level that you would expect to act to support all right so there's the short setup in the sb 500 this morning nice divergent short set up with options trades and then confirmed in book map and order flow all right let's go back and take a look at hero again and notice as price came down to that 4415 level that's where it looks like where sbx is right now options traders started taking positive delta positions moving price back up to that upper daily expected move and now price is back down so options traders have uh other than this first divergent setup have provided a very good confirmation the very strong correlation between options trades hedging flow and price action let's see what traders are doing so we can separate out puts and calls so today and this is pretty typical uh although these lines are usually flatter traders are buying puts and shown by the negative notional value for the blue line also the the falling blue line indicating traders are buying puts negative notional value and then they're buying calls shown by the orange line and the positive notional value there let's take a look at the total signal and the total signal is showing the combine puts and calls negative notional value put buyers more aggressive but again a very strong correlation between options trades hedging flow and price action today let's just take a look at the the zero tte that's shown by the green line and notice the strong uh correlation very close um correlation between the total signal the purple line is showing all expirations today tomorrow friday next week next month showing all expirations and then the green line is showing options that expire today and notice that is um actually lower more uh negative notional value than the total signal so anyway you can just see from the closeness of the lines of the purple line all expirations and the green line zero dte that uh zero tte traders are having a really controlling options trades today the bulk of the volume in options trades is going to be uh zero dte today so often uh spot gamma will publish the statistics at the end of the day of the amount of zero dte trades and uh today it looks like they're quite involved with again zero dte options all right let's take a look at nasdaq so this is a combined signal for ndx and qqq and pretty similar to smb 500 options traders were taking negative delta positions from the open and also setting up a nice divergent setup around 1030 let's go take a look at book map let's go over to go to nasdaq now zoom in so here's the 1030 divergent short set up just below the qqq 367 level and the uh nq100 level and not these sub chart here showing not a lot of support from cumulative volume delta a little bit of uh buying from large traders with iceberg orders uh but not much support again from aggressive buyers and stop orders fueling a move higher and as price starts to move lower you can see the shift to magenta volume dots those are by minus cell the magenta color indicates more sellers than buyers helping to uh move the lower fuel to move lower as options traders were taking negative delta positions so it took the patience this morning uh to wait for that 1030 time frame that first hour and again options traders setting up this divergent short for uh smb 500 and nasdaq all right let's take a look at some stocks now all right so mike p says uh hello hello mike could you share your thoughts on tesla for this week sure yeah well uh when i get to uh i'm going to go through a couple of stocks and then we'll take a look at tesla and normally i'm looking from day to day so we will uh we'll take a look at tesla we can take a look at equity hub and see what information is in there that uh you know that might that might guide us for uh for the week all right so there's nasdaq just like the smb 500 trading at a range up and down qqq 367 acting as the top end of the range and then nq 15 000 more or less acting as the lower end of the range with uh this ndx 15 000 somewhere in the middle all right let's take a look first of all at meta and i'm going to take a look go to hero let's go to meta notice that 290 is the key gamma strike another divergent short here just a few minutes after the open traders started taking negative delta positions and then right around oh 1015 meta made started making a series of lower highs and then broke below that 290 key gamma strike as traders were taking negative delta positions let's go take a look at book map and i've got this marked in um in book map here strong move higher and then the break let me just zoom in on this trend break price broke above the 290 level and then started making a series of lower highs broke the trend and then broke below the 290 key gamma strike all right so about a four point move lower uh from the 290 level for meta nice short setup let's take a look at invidia so invidia has recovered very well but this was a good short setup this morning we'll zoom in on that then we can we'll take a look and see what invidia is doing after finding support at the 450 level zoom in on this just a little bit right so let's go take a look at hero actually before i want to uh want to take a look at some background information for invidia i'm going to start with the this risk reversal what this chart is showing and this is in spot gamma equity hub it's available to spot gamma pro and alpha subscribers this line is the risk reversal line this line is price the risk reversal is showing the implied volatility of a 25 delta call minus the implied volatility of a 25 delta put and when there's a demand for calls or puts let's say there's a demand for calls the implied volatility of the calls will increase and price will increase you know if there's a demand for anything price is going to increase so what this chart is showing is there has been a persistent increasing demand for calls took a while for price to respond so traders are buying calls when traders buy calls market makers sell the calls they have to buy stock to hedge their delta exposure and that really kicked off a rally starting around the beginning of the year and note that recently this persistent rising demand for calls began to decrease and price has stalled or leveled off as that persistent demand for calls at least for the time being has slowed down so we know that there is a declining or waning demand for calls for Nvidia that has driven Nvidia much higher let's take a look at something more recent here we'll look at the key daily levels and this is comparing the last 10 days for the key daily levels so what this chart is showing from last friday to today the key gamma strike dropped from 500 to 450 that's bearish hedge wall dropped from 467.5 to 450 that's also bearish call wall remains at 500 and then the put wall dropped lower from 457.5 to 430 so overall bearish drops in the key daily levels for Nvidia for today we know that that demand for calls has been declining right so let's go take a look now at hero go to Nvidia so our pre-market prep planning process looking at Nvidia would give me a bearish directional bias now i'm going to look at hero now that has you know certainly turned around today but let's just focus on on this warning so at the beginning of the day my directional bias was bearish and the hero signal i'll look at that at a minute was weak when i ranked the my watch list by the hero signal from weakest to strongest Nvidia was at the top of the list and they're typically for Nvidia there's a very strong correlation between options trades and hedging flow and price action and i've heard people people say that Nvidia is the new tesla and it certainly is driven by options trades is you know clearly shown in this chart so traders started taking negative delta positions oh just maybe 935 936 just a few minutes after the cash open price started moving lower good entry point after seeing that move lower and hero was right around the 460 level and then that was good for a 10 point drop down to the 450 key gamma strike hedgewall level right there so let's go take a look at book map i'm going to zoom in well this is pretty close this is good enough so here's the reversal right around 935 Nvidia moves pretty fast good entry point right here at 460 and a quick move lower to the 450 key gamma strike hedgewall notice the buy sweep down at this level that's shown by the bright green small bright green dots that's a buy sweep and then price starts to move higher at a level that you expect might act as support right so let's take a look let's zoom out now actually we'll scroll over to the right a little bit let's just zoom all the way out and options traders started taking positive delta positions we'll go back and look at that in just a minute and price started to move higher let's take a look at cvd not much of a clue there let's go back to hero zoom all the way out so it's pretty clear just around 955 10am options traders started taking positive delta positions and price reversed at that level the 450 key gamma strike also a high liquidity level in book map so let's see what traders were doing so they started so initially they were selling calls and buying puts those lines reversed right around 955 so they have been buying calls that is really what has been driving price higher primarily not the strong correlation between the rising orange line showing call buyers notional value is positive traders are buying calls they're also selling puts so Brent in spot gamma founders notes has talked about this recently the confluence of having the calls and puts moving in the same direction is a very strong signal so for nvidia starting around 955 traders started buying calls and selling puts helping to fuel the move higher back above the opening print let's go back to take a look at book map so back up toward the past the opening print right around 465 and didn't quite make it to the 470 liquidity level back to hero and now mike p wants to take a look at tesla we can do that tesla pretty choppy day today we'll take a look at book map and then we'll dig through equity hub see what we can figure out for the week to book map tesla so tesla pretty pretty good short today trading under vwap that's shown by that light blue line good shorts at vwap so in this case cvd cumulative volume delta providing a good clue to direction let's go back and take a look at hero and recently for tesla i've had tesla hero for tesla has not been as clear typically as it is in the past the the correlation that has existed in the past between options trades hedging activity seems to be not quite as clear now let's just see what traders are doing not nearly as clear as nvidia so really today traders are both the numbers are positive so they are buying calls very small number 14 million and they're also selling puts both the numbers positive the blue line blue number 61 million all right let's take a look at equity hub go to tesla first of all let's take a look at the risk reversal and note this chart is a little distorted due to stock split here that's shown by that line this chart does not take into account the change in price due to a stock split but this chart just like in nvidia is showing a declining demand for calls so that persistent demand for calls that can drive a price higher has slowed down and that happened right around uh june 20th that's shown the the peak of the chart there the risk reversal chart at uh june 20th and again this risk reversal line is showing the implied volatility of a 25 delta call minus the implied volatility of a 25 delta put so a rising line indicates an increased demand for calls and a falling line indicates an increasing demand for puts in relation to calls right let's take a look at history now to get a more clear picture of the last few days right so for tesla the key gamma strike did rise from 230 to 250 today hedge wall also increased call wall increased put wall remains the same so uh for uh mike this looks bullish to me if the call buyers can uh step up to the plate then um then tesla might move higher but it looks like again this these increases in the key daily levels that looks bullish to me all right any other questions anyone has uh does anyone have any other stocks they want me to take a look at all right mike you're welcome all right let's go back to the um go back to hero let's see what's happening with the sb 500 we'll take a look at look at nasdaq in just a minute so now sb 500 at the right around at the 4415 volatility trigger again as options traders started taking negative delta positions at the upper end of the range upper daily expected move and they have not started buying yet so still sb 500 holding down around the low let's go take a look at yes still finding support at the 4415 level no support from aggressive buyers large traders large traders really fading this move today so far cumulative for the day since i opened book map around 7am eastern time uh 5,210 iceberg sell orders large traders selling with iceberg orders they use to hide their size so it looks like it'll take some positive delta options positions and or uh large traders coming in uh to move yes the b500 higher right floyd's garage wants to look at disney we can do that now i don't have disney and book map but we can take a look at it in spot gamma to search for disney all right what this chart is showing is most of the most of the options trades and hedging flow was in one large uh order there so a large block order institutional order came in let's see what that was so this large order one large block order of calls somebody bought a lot of calls and that happened after price already started to move higher and this is about a one point move higher from 83 60 to 84 60 so disney not really uh especially actively traded um small move today and v who asked uh hello hello v who does the spot gamma only tool to see the stock options data or any other website or tool we can check spot gamma is what i use i i think there are other tools um you can just do your research just do a google search um you know you should find some competitors i think spot gamma is the best that's what i use i think it was one of the first out and um certainly the best provides the most information again that's what i use let's take a look at nasdaq all right tumen says another good thing about nvidia is that it respects a vxn very well unlike tesla all right be who you're welcome so nasdaq uh nvidia is a key driver of the smb 500 as well as tesla but nvidia i'd have to check the market cap i think it's probably higher than tesla at this point i'm not sure but yeah nvidia has been a key driver of nasdaq and the smb 500 all year so nasdaq options traders taking negative delta positions cumulative uh notional value here for the day 107 minus 107 billion we'll go back and take a look at book map so uh smb 500 es still hovering just above the 4415 level nq trying to move higher just above the qqq 365 level let's take a look at nvidia still trying to make it up to that 470 level notice the uh the shift in order flow here all the magenta volume dots a lot of aggressive sellers coming in as prices uh around the high of the day let's go back to hero nvidia so options traders have taken their foot off the gas more or less hero line is slightly sloping down slightly from about 130 135 and price has corresponded by chopping around now it looks like options traders may have started to take positive delta positions again so worth keeping an eye on if uh just watch nvidia to see if they can make it up to the 470 level let's go back to book map right so we know that options traders are starting to take positive delta positions again but aggressive sellers are in here that's shown by the all the pink volume dots that started to come in around the 465 level just after 1pm and note the sharp shift lower and cumulative volume delta there all right so we know that the SME 500 still stalled around the 4415 level nq around the qqq 365 level and in nvidia there's a battle between the aggressive sellers and options traders all right my time is up vhu you're welcome and let me i'll answer your question then we'll wrap it up for the day so vhu says based on the hero chart how to make a decision to enter the trade when down move is happening that's where the combination of book map and spot gamma comes in so i i'm not making a decision on spot gamma only or only book map only or spot gamma only i'm looking i have two screens i'm looking at both at the same time and i could see for example let's take a look at meta so this was really clear this pattern in the chart the trend break the wedge pattern and then the break lower at at the 290 key gamma strike so that was very clear so i'm looking at book map and at spot gamma so i know that that was that divergence was setting up traders were taking negative delta positions and i was just looking for a confirmation in book map for this short setup here so very pretty clear illustration in meta there all right so i hope that answers your question combination of book map order flow and spot gamma understanding what options traders are doing and putting that together for a setup all right thank you very much thanks for watching thanks for your questions and comments you're welcome everyone and i will see you tomorrow thanks again bye