 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network. I realized that it is pretty embarrassing to be a 31 year old person and to lose your voice from screaming at a college football game But that is the scenario I am in right now So I apologize if my voice is a little bit hoarse for today I was out in Dublin for the northwestern versus Nebraska game result was good So a bit more yelling than anticipated But I had a blast out there Dublin a really cool city got to see some lost people out there Got to watch Northwestern win a game which I didn't expect so a lot of good stuff out there But I apologize if I said a little bit weird for today still in recovery mode from Dublin But a fun show on tap for today because I got some good MLB stuff I think got some money lines and strikeout props to go through for this Monday action on a six game Well six games after seven o'clock that I ran through for today We'll break down those what I'm liking for today and then also taking a look back at a pretty successful Last week for the show. We'll do all that right now. Let's dive on in welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm here to take a look at Mondays And I'll be action breaking down a money line my numbers like and to strikeout props as well Then we'll take a look again at what happened last week again for accountability purposes We'll still be going through covering the past and outlining how things went how I might have done things differently stuff like that So we'll all that coming up later on today, but we do have a week one college football coming up on Wednesday with Dr. Ed Feng we've got pitching ninja back once again tomorrow loaded week once again and this week you're on covering the spread so Make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast also up on the fandal YouTube page Hit subscribe there because they do go up after the fact on there as well so just search for covering the spread or the fandal YouTube page hit subscribe and Swing on back throughout the week for some more good content and if I'll kick off is still a few weeks away But you can get in on the action now on fandals sportsbook with their NFL super win bonus right now anyone who plays is at least a $50 Super Bowl winner bet will get $5 back for each win. Their team has during the regular season They're also a ton of other features futures markets available like team win totals division winners Player props and so much more There is no better place to get ready for the football season than on fandal America's number one sportsbook and official sports betting partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and president select states only bonus issued as Non withdrawal with free bets that expire seven days after a street max free bet $50 restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook Fandal calm gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or was a fandal calm slash RG in Arizona 100 next step or text next step to 5334 2 in Connecticut 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1-809 with it in Louisiana 1-777-770 stop in New York 1-778 hoping wire text hoping why in Tennessee Call the red line at 1-889-9789 in Wyoming 1-805-22-4700 or in West Virginia 1-800 gambler net let's figure the money lines that my numbers like for today and just one showing Good enough value for me to bet it and that is actually on the angels Scoring off for the Yankees right now that money line is plus 154 at fandal sportsbook I do think there is value there the implied odds at plus 154 are 39.4 percent My numbers at the angels at 47.9 percent to win so a pretty big gap potentially too large But it's big enough where I've got a lot of room to be wrong here A lot of the stems from my numbers being skeptical of Frankie Montas He did look better last time out went five and two-thirds two runs Just let up he had six strikeouts in that game So it better start from Montas than we've seen his entire tenure at the Yankees the problem is that he was still using a sinker a lot and I think that's kind of like part of it's the injury But I think it's also the sinker is part of the cause for why he's been struggling more recently It's just it's not a good pitch for him. He has a 396 woba against it according to baseball savant So It was encouraging to see him pitch well But the previous red flags from Montas didn't evaporate from one good start innate starts for Montas with more sinkers He has a 4.33 skill interactive. Yeah, Ray. So I'm still skeptical of him right now He's this is hosted Suarez and it's a lefty against the Yankees. That is a terrifying combination to have But my numbers know that they know how good the Yankees are versus lefties and despite that Despite not being in love with Suarez despite loving this Yankees offense It still gives the angels a really good shot to win this this game I do agree with my numbers here. I did bet this one. I got plus 158 So plus 154 pretty much right there The win odds are under 50% so Make sure to scaling correctly in terms of the expected value of this bet keep that in mind But when we got an eight percentage point gap between what my numbers say and what the market says, I'm okay Not passing that up and locking that one in so the angels plus 154 on the money line versus the Yankees The favorite bet that I have in the money line market for today and probably my favorite bet in terms of other stuff, too I do a couple of strikeout props, but I'd put that one above it So right now angels plus 154 the one that I like most for baseball for today With that said there are two strikeout props and one of them is tied to the Yankees point And that's Frankie Montas under six and a half strikeouts at minus 148 This one is a five and a half elsewhere. So It could also be there. We'll talk about that in a second But I just don't like that singer from Montas. It doesn't get whiffs Using it too much right now the angels are a high strikeout team They have a 26 strikeout rate on the current active roster versus righties But this is a really big number If it stays at six and a half I'd be willing to lay about minus 170 on this one to get action on the under from Montas But I'm guessing more likely this number gets down to five and a half to get in line with other books And that's what you got in other spots. My projections do have Montas down for 5.45 strikeouts So right in line with the five and a half But that still leads to under odds greater than 50 percent But with the way things are distributed the way things work from a pitching perspective At draft kings, uh under five and a half is plus 115. I'm okay with that So whether you're getting minus 148 under six and a half I prefer that one obviously, but I would also take under five and a half at plus 115 for Montas Just make sure you're not getting a bad number there But check out the under on Montas and to see how you want to play that one now This is a unique scenario I'm not a big same-game parlay same-game parlay person because It requires me to find two bets I like within the same game and that doesn't usually happen We do add that here If you were to try to parlay the money line with Montas's strikeout prop under you get plus 262 over a fan dual sports book On those two parlay together in the same game parlay I think that works. Um, I again I'm not a huge same-game parlay person because very rarely do I find Two bets I like within the same game But these two are correlated a bit if Montas struggles Probably not going to get to over six and a half strikeouts the angels then more likely to win this game There is some interaction there. I think this is fair So I would check that out. Give it some consideration Not going to pound the table for it because I'm not a huge parlay person in general I have a pretty strict set of rules I need to hit in order to get there I do get there with this one though. I'm not opposed as like a broad from a broad perspective I just have a pretty strict set of criteria. This one meets that criteria So if you want to pair the Montas strikeout prop under six and a half with the money line at plus 154 plus 262 a fan dual sports book I can take that. So this is actually a spot where I'm good with doing that for today being a bit more aggressive And getting both those under the same umbrella The other strikeout proper like for today is on ranger suarez That's a four and a half at fandal sports book with minus 112 on the over. There was a minus 111 lingering out there earlier on so Again shop around see what you can get on this one here But I do believe we'll see the suarez number creeping up as the day goes along I have suarez projected for 5.81 strikeouts tonight and he's become more of a High strikeout pitcher recently We've seen suarez using a cutter now, which is not a pitch he had in his arsenal earlier on this year But in the eight starts using that pitch suarez has a 23.9 strikeout rate Pretty good number the diamond backs not a big strikeout team against lefties But they're also not a good team against lefties that shelves suarez work later in the game and hopefully Get more chances to bolster that strikeout number get a higher number of plate appearances Out there, which means the requisite strikeout rate to get above that will inherently be lower The roof is also closed tonight in arizona That's another thing that can help pitching can help effectiveness in terms of getting suarez deeper in the game So if we look at the number here, it's again minus 112 on the over right now I have his over rods at 60 percent. So that'd be out to minus 150 I'd be willing to go to minus 130 to give myself more wiggle room from my from my number should be wrong I'm not sure if it'll get there honestly because it would be a pretty significant move It's already 9 0 5 a.m. Eastern. We're talking about this So it's been held holding steady for about the past half hour I think you'll be able to get four and a half at a pretty reasonable number So check your books see which numbers you can get available to you So you can get that minus 111 out there somewhere But if it's minus 130 or better, I'd be okay with that one So rangers suarez over four and a half strikeouts minus 112 Frankie montas under six and a half strikeouts minus 148 or potentially under five and a half If you can get plus money on that as well, I think that works. So overall Pretty solid baseball day for today. Check out the same game parley if it's available If it's one of those sites where they don't let you use unders in the same game parley wouldn't bother But uh, if it's fan dual sports book specifically and you can do that I'd be checking that out for the montas strikeout prop for today That's gonna wrap up the monday stuff But I do want to go back through last week's shows and outline Some of the bets we discussed here again for accountability purposes and recap recap how things went Actually pretty good week across the board. We had brandon kadula on to preview the tour championship and brandon talked a lot about rory macaroy Winning the entire tournament rory was nine to one to win the tournament after accounting for starting the stroke I think he was plus six fifty to win it without accounting for that And macaroy came back from a six stroke deficit to win that thing on sunday really good rally for him. So macaroy winds up caching that one on the to win it all at nine to one Good bet by brandon there. He did like xander shuffle as well xander finished fourth in the overall I think he was eight to one or plus seven fifty to win that one But he did get macaroy other stuff for brandon He had a stallings over a stroke ahead to head uh cam young top ten and the cam young 72 all winner bets those ones didn't hit but the macaroy nine to one winner Does hit so a good call by brandon and rory macaroy Winning the tour championship the fedex cup playoffs And a nice outing by rory there to get that uh third fedex cup Championship as well We had ed on the show last week talked some college football again confined ed on twitter at the powering because my brandon I could duel at 13 But at the powering to find ed he went one-on-one in the first week of college football week zero He wasn't in northwestern plus 13 and a half in ireland Did get some good movement on that. I was back at 12 and a half in most spots and honestly like Part of this was like scott frost maybe making a mistake with the onsite kick I didn't hate it honestly given that um If it had worked they would have had a two-score lead in the ball and that game might have been toast but You know, it was partly that but also northwestern's lawn kicks and butt during that game They played great. Uh, ryan hillinsky very much exceeded my expectations. So sure you could Put this on the coaching staff if you want to but a that's part of the analysis b northwestern covered the spread by 15 points or whatever did depending on the number that you got by winning this game by three so Honestly ed's numbers had this. I think it as a nine point game in nebraska's favor northwestern covered that pretty easily So good call by adam that one being in northwestern versus nebraska plus 13 and a half at the time we spoke back on wednesday Hopefully got it that number. Maybe you got a money line. I'm not sure I'm not sure what the numbers were seven and for that for the money line part of it But a win against the spread regardless for northwestern in that ireland game Other one that ed's numbers liked was hawaii plus eight and a half against vanderbelt. This one didn't go as well Vandy rolled here. They won that one 63 to 10 So vandy good showing in week zero hawaii not as much but one in one week for ed there On those two bets that his numbers liked for last week Also, do you want to remind you that ed did talk about a week one game there? I'm not going to make you go back and listen to it because I'd force you to listen to An entire podcast analyzing games that already happened But he did talk about clemson minus 21 and a half against georgia tech in week number one at last check that number Was still available. So ed did talk about a week one game that he likes clemson minus 21 and a half versus georgia tech Uh scrolling now to see if you can still get that one. Uh, but either way Uh, yeah minus 21 and a half for clemson right now So you can still get that one Check that out well the full preview week one with ed coming up on wednesday to break down his favorite bets For college football in week number one Final thing that we talked about last week was nascar at Daytona a wild race I was on a plane for most of us. I didn't get actually actually watch it, uh, but landed and turned on the race saw So I had like two like long shot bets. I had, um Landed castle plus 350 to be the top chevy and cody wear plus 450 to be the top forward I got off the plane and they were both second among their respective manufacturers. I was like, oh boy What are we doing here? So, uh, didn't didn't get either of those but came real close, uh, where was actually out front in the final corner and got passed by allison syndrick, but like That's kind of the risk you take when you bet on bad drivers as they could get passed in the final turn Despite having, you know, good positioning He lost that bet that that's part of the analysis. Sure castle finished third among chevies, but fourth overall So I felt good about those two bets. Those were not in the show though The show bets were uh, blaney 12 to 1 to win. He wrecked. I wrecked with christor bell Who I also liked the 25 to 1 eric jones caught up in a wreck. He was 35 to 1 None of those outrides hit but I did have david raggan at 10 to 1 to finish inside the top 10 and He was one of the benefactors of that carnage Reagan Kept his nose clean all day. He's a very good super speedway racer So that to me was not a huge surprise and he finished top 10 in both. They tone a race this year That's pretty incredible. So david raggan did finish top 10 10 to 1 hit that that last week here on the show and do feel good about that one Also want to talk quickly about uh, you probably saw if you're on twitter like this insane parley That won almost a million bucks 13 $13 and 49 cent free bet a bunch of top 10 bets parlayed together in nascar I don't retweet those ever. I don't talk about those because they Give new betters unrealistic false expectations for how things work in sports betting They will put down Minus ev parlays hoping that they hit to you know get rich quick kind of thing I don't want to talk about that because It just gives false expectations bad expectations for things that are not realistic and probably not going to happen This one though actually was Plus ev if I look at my numbers, I actually have value on all four bets all four individual legs Uh for this race cody where top 10 bg mccloud top 10 lana castle top 10 and david raggan top 10 My number should value at all those we're talking about raggan on the show He was plus 950 when they bet it it was 10 to 1 when we talked about it on the show but my number should value in all those numbers and Yes, there is a situation where if cody where gets a top 10 That's one less spot for bg mccloud to finish top 10. So there is some Negative interaction there. They're not independent events because assuming one guy's in the top 10 You have nine spots off the rest of that group, but at the same time These are all bad cars and they run in the back for the entire race Which means that if david raggan finishes top 10 You're probably going to get a situation where there actually is a correlation where it makes it Higher odds lana castle finishes top 10 to so I don't want to like dive too much into this because again It's still it is still like, you know a one in a million kind of shot Um, I don't want to focus too much on those but I think the overall takeaway is Think about events if you're looking at parley is that are correlated But may not seem to be that correlated because they're going to let you get tie-ins like that You should take advantage. Um, so This better did exactly that kudos to them for doing so again It was four plus ev legs within the same parley individually independently again I didn't run the numbers to see if my simulation side of situation were all four in the top 10, but Individually they were all good bets. That's what I want to parlay. So When you see those stories, you know sports books tweeting out stories about how oh this insane parley hit We lost a million bucks. I would ignore them 99.8 times out of a that are 99.8 times out of 100 But this one actually was plus ev pretty much across the board. It was based on Good bets based on actually analysis from Two guys. I like a lot in the NASCAR betting sphere on dr. Nick Giffen We've had on the show here actually at rhododoc on twitter and then jordan mackabee at fan racing online They have a podcast called stacking denny's they talked about those bets on the show and it won wound up hitting So, yes ignore those. They're bad for the most part But this one actually was plus ev you wanted to highlight that just to show that there are situations where there are There's correlation you can take advantage of that with saying game parlays or other parlays And that's the situation where parlays are going to be Better bets than the otherwise would be Don't go chasing minus ev bets just to get super super long odds But in this one situation, I think it actually did make a lot of sense So kudos to that guy congrats to him or congrats to them. I should say um and uh spend it wisely But don't go chasing long parlays if they're not plus ev bets across the board That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread big show though for tomorrow We're going to have pitching ninja on to talk about uh, uh, Tuesdays and now beastly Tuesdays always pretty big So we'll talk about that dr. At fang swinging by on wednesday To break down, uh college football week number one as well Hopefully we can get a good week this week as good as it was last week as well If you've gotten any questions for me, I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Don't forget to subscribe to covering the spread We'll talk to you once again tomorrow. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network