 Welcome traders to this week's live market and trade analysis session with me, Patrick Munner-Lee. Before we get going, as always, we want to adhere to the risk disclaimer most pertinent to today's presentation of the pattern of views and opinions expressed by me are solely mine. They're not indicative or representative of those held by Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe Limited. Those of you here for the first time, a brief introduction to myself. After I graduated from university, I joined a city PLC consulting firm and left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup which was focused on C-suite executive search for technology businesses. Essentially, I had a front row seat to the dot-com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the market, sometimes quite literally overnight. I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some capital play with and some time in my hands. I started day trading the S&P 500 or probably more appropriately at that stage, day gambling. As the market started to change, I eventually began to average down into losing positions, giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six-figure hit to my capital. Say that was a gut wrenching and severing experience is an understatement. So I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the market. So I decided to get serious about trading and sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of 18 months was a time during which I upped not just my technical game in terms of researching, developing, extensively back-and-forward testing strategies that crucially suited my personality, all of which were underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. But most importantly, during the period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game. And probably most importantly of all, I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal-orientated individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process-orientated. So what does that mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process-orientated and have a professional trading mindset and you set and understand the true nature of trading, being a numbers game in which you are simply playing the probabilities, you lose the emotional investment and that hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. So I no longer concerned with the outcomes of individual trades or even a small string of trades. I might focus on the next hundred trades because I know by focus on excellence and execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. Since 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service, again delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multi-million dollar portfolio. Since 2010, I've met hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former DME floor traders, developing the technical and mental skills to reap consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I'm also a resident market expert exclusively providing market and trade analysis to techno clients. I provide an in-depth daily market outlook, breaking down fundamental and technical drivers for the trading day ahead. I also provide daily technical trade setup videos for markets that I'm actively tracking, and I share those through the TickMill blog and through the TickMill trading view accounts. I also run TickMills E-mini strategy Facebook group where I post a daily trade plan outlining my pre-market thoughts for the cash trading session ahead for the S&P 500, giving my bias for the day ahead and specific action areas where I'm looking to engage the markets. These pre-market plans have delivered just under 6,000 points of profit now since we launched the group in April 2021. Second TickMill strategy group I run is for traders who really want to take their trading to the next level. The TickMill futures trading telegram group is a real-time environment. We're on a daily basis. I share in-depth insights, analysis, and real-time trades. I also provide live commentary during the opening hour of the cash session in New York where traders can essentially see in real-time how I dissect the markets and identify asymmetric trading opportunities. These sessions act as a platform helping traders to develop a professional consistent approach to navigating the markets and the mental mind games that must be mastered to make it as a profitable market operator. Okay, so that gives you a flavor of where it is I'm coming from. We will jump into the charts. Before I get going here, as always, if you have any questions, just drop those into the chat and I will come back to them at the end of the presentation. Equally, if you'd like me to give a view on an instrument that I don't cover in my presentation, then again, you can put that into the chat and I'll give you a view on that at the end of my presentation. So let's get going here with the S&P 500, the e-mini futures contract. Again, coming into this week, I wanted to be positioned on the long side. We had key support tested at the 3940s we talked about last week. That held. Yesterday, we got this upside extension after FedChepHow was viewed to be less hawkish than anticipated walking back or potentially walking back the rate of rate increases. Now, he certainly didn't suggest that there was going to be any pause immediately. There would obviously be that would be down the road in terms of an actual pause in the rate, but he did suggest that there could be a slowing in terms of the rate increases and the markets took that as a dovish move. And so we extended to the upside and we tested into the 4100 level. I'm looking for this 4100 to break today and my target to the move is this 4120 to 4130 area. Now, I talked about this as well last week. That is going to take us into this trend channel resistance on the weekly time frame here. And that is going to be a pivotal test for the markets. We will also be completing a symmetry, sorry, an equality objective. So when I talk about equality for those of you who are here for the first time, I'll draw one in, I'll draw more, but essentially what I'm tracking is these equal legs for Elliot Wave as it's that ABC pattern. And you can see, so that gives us the target there of 4127. So I'm anticipating we test the area today and that is going to be a key test for markets. From a sentiment perspective, obviously we saw that big surge yesterday, a washout of short positions. That's my mind, it could be a question of the market now getting overly enthusiastic at poor trade locations. So as we test this resistance, I'm going to be watching for bearish reversal patterns as a potential to engage on the short side. Now, if we blow through these levels is 41, 41, 20, 41, 30, then I'm going to be thinking of the next upside objectives. And my next targets, if we don't get any reaction at these key levels, is going to be 4150 to 4170. My support for today will be these prior highs into the 4050. So when you pull back into 4050, you're going to watch for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side, targeting 4120, 4130. We get through there without any bearish reversal patterns. Do note though, at this stage, we do have developing momentum divergence. Now, momentum divergence is a confirmation I use to play countertrend trades at the moment, obviously the short term or the for our perspective is to the long side. So we would consider any trade on the short side of countertrend trade on that specific time frame. But if we can maintain the momentum divergence here, then that will give me additional confirmation to engage on the counter trend side of the trade. So that's the setup that I'm tracking today in the S&P 500, E-mini S&Ps. Let's move to the NASDAQ. NASDAQ again, similar setup to the S&P. What we're looking for is any pullbacks into the 11,940 area, bullish reversal patterns there engage on the long side. Let me just zoom this chart out so you can see the trend channel that I'm tracking here. So we are looking for a test of weekly projected range resistance, daily projected range resistance and this trend line resistance, trend channel resistance coming in 12,230. Similar to that S&P setup, if we get into that area and we maintain momentum divergence, i.e. prices making new highs but we don't get a new high versus the last high in terms of the momentum study here, then we're going to be watching for bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side. And from that area, the first target on the down side will be back into this support area 11,900. If we get through there, then we have trend line support coming in 11,730. Moving to Dow Jones. So we are looking for a test now. This is the five equals one objective. So if we're going to reference this pullback as our way for low, we have a five equals one which will take us into weekly and daily projected range resistance just below 35,000. Same setup. We get bearish reversal patterns there. I'm going to be looking to engage on the short side, targeting move initially down into trend line support, 34,000 at the high volume there, 33,700. So you can see with these equity indexes specifically, we're coming into some pretty key inflection points. Now, like I say, if we can get through these levels on a daily closing basis, then we could really be starting to think about an acceleration potentially to the outside as shorts really do cover into the year end and we get that seasonal effect, the year end, Santa Ray, et cetera. But for now, I'm paying really close attention to how these markets respond to these key inflection points, certainly with these US equity indexes. Russell, similar scenario here. Russell can actually get up to test range resistance and we are looking for a move into that just below, just above the 2000 level, having a quality objective 1990. So any move into that area for the Russell, again, similar scenario, we're looking for momentum divergence and bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side. And certainly we'd be thinking about a move back down into the 1910 level in terms of the Russell moving to the Euro area and the DAX. That held that trend channel support and we're extending. So I'm looking now for the for the DAX to extend into its five equals one objective. So we are looking for a test of just above the 15,000 level. So any close through 14,600 on the four hour timeframe, the confirmation to engage on the long side, looking for a move up into that target zone. And then from there, again, I'm going to be watching for momentum divergence to develop. And certainly we can be thinking about a pullback into trend channel support here at the these prior highs again, 14,500 will be the first target for a correction on the downside. The Nifty, this was the this was really the canary in the coal mine. This was the one that led us has led the global markets higher as it's as it made new equity highs. We highlighted this this pullback area and the extension. So we've extended now into the once it's one extension here, 18,960. So once again, with the Nifty, we do have we don't have any momentum divergence yet. So what I would how I use the momentum study to give me a better sense of where we are in terms of the cycle that any near term high that we get is likely now to be a way three high because we don't have that momentum divergence. So what I'm looking for them will be pullbacks into the trend channel support to engage on the long side, looking for that five equals one extension once we can identify that way for low in place. And for now we'd be looking in any pullbacks into the 18,600 area bullish reversal patterns, and we will be looking for that fifth wave extension to develop TLT bonds. Our target last week, we have pulled back into the pitchfork support here, and we're looking for a reversal. So what I again the target for me at this stage now is this 10650 area. Let's show you actually that target is going to be adjusted let's do this. So we're looking for a five equals one from our potential way for low. So that would actually give us a target now in terms of TLT at the 10740. So any close through 10380s on a closing basis for our timeframe, we look to engage on the long side of our target is 10720s, which would complete the initial move here. So this target that we've got will give us an interim upside objective. And again, if we hit this target and we don't have momentum divergence at the moment it is developing, then we could consider this to be a way three high and then we'll be looking for a way four pullback. But for now, we're going to use this as a potential way for low and we're going to target 10720s. Dollar index continue to hold trend channel resistance breaking down. So any pullbacks now that hold this 10620 to 10650, we are looking for our target test into the 104 handle. Now from there I'm anticipating as long as we get this momentum divergence intact, I've been looking for a tradable pullback in terms of the dollar index and certainly we can think about move back into the way for high here, which would give us put us back into the 10770s. So we're going to be seeing now if the dollar can actually trade into that target zone, complete this initial cycle from the swing high here at the 113 level and then we'll be looking to trade the correction before potentially starting another leg to the downside in terms of the dollar index. It's interesting, like I said last week, the synchronicity with the dollar potentially going to test into that 104 as the S&P test into that 4120, 4130. These are key tests now for these markets and if they all reverse in synchronously, that's going to add fuel to these trade setups that I've been talking about. Euro dollar similar scenario, we're looking for that 106 test and we're going to be looking for momentum divergence to be maintained. That 106 coincides with the weekly trend line resistance as well and again we're going to pay close attention to how price responds at these key inflection levels because certainly we can start to think about a tradable pullback in terms of the dollar and the Euro dollar. Similar scenario in terms of cable. Getting close to our target level, 12218 is what we're looking for here. We've got momentum divergence so we're going to be watching the bearish reversal patterns as we test into this area to engage on the short side. Initial target, we're back into trend channel sport, interim trend channel sport here, 12040. So we'll see if we get a response here in terms of cable. If we break, if we don't get a rejection here, next upside objective is going to be 12360s for Sterling but initially we're looking for that 12218 test. Dollar yen, we traded to target last night so we're looking at a new pattern now. What I'm looking for here is any pullbacks into this prior support now to act as resistance. 13760s, again we're looking for bearish reversal patterns from that area to engage on the short side and I'm targeting a move down now into the S3 there, 13320s will be the next downside objective. Technically we have completed an initial five-way sequence on the daily time frame here so we could see a more significant pullback but for now we're going to trade with the trend and so any move back into that 13760s we want to watch the bearish reversal patterns and engage on the short side. At this stage we really need to close back through this interim trend channel resistance high volume nodes 13940s, 140 area to suggest a more meaningful corrective move is likely to play out and that would give us a retest of the wave floor high into that 14230, 14250 level. Euro yen has an interesting setup that's developing here, let me just zoom out so you can see, so what we're tracking here is what Elliot Wavre has referred to as a WXY pattern, this is our X wave low, we're looking for a Y, sorry from our X wave high here at 14614, we have the equality objective, 14029, we have some trend channel support coming in, so I'm looking for any move into this area, watch for bullish reversal patterns here to engage on the long side, first call will be the midpoint of the channel, 14280s if we can get through there, we look for the high volume node and trend channel resistance up towards 145, similar scenario developing in terms of sterling dollar, sorry sterling yen as we hold trend channel resistance here, internal trend channel resistance once just 16680s, 167, watch for bearish reversal patterns there, I'm looking for a move down to break through the support here 16307 into our WXY objective which is 15980s also coincides with 50% retracement of the move from the lows and we have this price swing low here also coming in 15980s, so some juicy targets to trade for on the downside here if we get the rejection into the projected trend channel resistance, dollar CAD, target level now, new target for dollar CAD here is going to be 13020s, we are looking now for a confirmation breakthrough, this trend line support here, 13380s to engage on the short side and we're trying to move down to projected trend channel support 13033 for the dollar CAD, Aussie getting close to our target level here we are looking for a move into the 6890s to complete this initial upside objective and pullbacks then remain supportive we've actually we'll have a new target then up into the 70 level and draw in what we will be looking for here, so we will look for pullbacks from our target zone into the prior highs to actor support, trend channel support coming in there 6760s we'll be looking to engage on the long side, targeting move up to the 70 level once we once we tag this initial target zone here at the 6890s, Kiwi dollar traded to our 63 target and we are looking now for any pullbacks into the 6280s to engage on the long side, targeting move up now to test the 6430s as the next technical upside objective in terms of the Kiwi dollar, gold I'm looking for gold now to test 1811 from there I'm watching for bearish reversal pattern so think about it as gold is testing this just above the 1800 level that dollar index should be testing that 104 which had the S&P testing up into that 4120, 4130 for all these line up and we get a bearish reversal pattern here in terms of the in terms of gold I'll be looking for a pullback into the 1730 the midpoint of the channel before we start the next leg to the upside so what I'm anticipating initially how I approach these setups is that I'm looking for a correct I'm looking to trade a correction now the correction can develop into an impulse leg and then we have a new trend to trade but for now we're thinking about these in terms of corrective moves off of some of these key levels, silver any move up into the 2280s watch for bearish reversal patterns there as I want to get some momentum divergence in play to engage on the short side first target to the downside is going to be 2140s in terms of silver crude oil trading just shy above five equals one objective seeing a nice strong bounce there in terms of crude so what I'm looking for now is crude trade up into the prior wave for high here 8240s then look for a let me draw it and actually make it a bit near for you guys so we look for an extension here up into that 8230, 8250 level and there we're looking for a three wave corrective move to ideally get us back into this 7750 before looking for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side and then we'll be targeting the move up into the high volume node there 8813 and that well will come just potentially just shy again what I'm looking for is an equality objective here so 8650s would be the initial target and then we would have that extra magnet of the high volume node at the 8813 so watch for bearish reversal patterns here as the way for three wave corrective move ideally back into this high volume node 7860s 7770s before looking for the next leg to the upside in terms of crude Bitcoin still just trapped in this range we were looking for support to hold just above the 16000 level it did traded into that first target so I was looking for 17100 those who follow my daily outlook I'm now looking for this 16600 16500 to act as support and ultimately then we look for a test up into the trend channel resistance just below 18000 in terms of Bitcoin actually let me just update this channel here let me use that and that so yeah we look for a move here into the 17300 then we're looking to use this midpoint of the channel of support for targeting a test of the trend channel resistance to the upside just below 18000 we'll finish up here looking at keyway sorry the swissing swiss is still trading technically versus the 9380s we could get an equality test up into the 9620s before ultimately we are looking for a test of 9140s as the downside objective in the swissie so any close through that 9350s would be confirmation on the short side totally moved down to the 9150s as the next downside objective that concludes the whistle stop markets I'm tracking this week we are like I say we are about to test some pretty key levels for those who want to follow along with respect to my analysis on a daily basis I will post into the chat this is the idea stream for the tick mill trading accounts and you can see my my trade analysis on a daily basis there post those videos updating these key charts and like I say we are about to test some pretty key levels here which could define certainly the next week or two in terms of in terms of price action and for those who want to get the daily trade plan that I share in the Facebook group just request access here and you'll get access to the daily trade plan along with some other interesting institutional insights I post into that that group so for me today guys really the focus is going to be on this S&P and the test of this 4120 4130 and we'll see if any sellers are at home as always traders plan the trade trade the plan and most importantly manage your risk until next week thanks very much