 Tim Larkworthy from FIG live now on the USTs and response Tim to that stronger economic data and the potential on higher rates. This is interesting. We've seen if anything the yields pushing up two year unchanged at 130, the 10 year though up a point to 222. Now just wondering whether the Fed funds futures have fundamentally recast the situation as it was looking like yesterday which is essentially the say one rate rise in June and then nothing for the rest of the year. Good to be with you Carson. Yes, look I think at this stage the US 10 year bonds are holding steady at that 2.22 level. That's towards the bottom of its recent range. I think at this stage the market is well and truly priced in a Fed tightening next week. The market's got a 90% chance of that occurring. If the Fed felt that the market was mispricing that I think they would have come out and jaw burned to a certain extent to re correct that position. So I think we can say that that's locked in. What will be more important will be how the market prices in any potential for a future rate tightening over the balance of the calendar year. At this stage it's priced in at 0.38 or 38% percent of a chance of a further tightening but obviously that will be dependent on the data. Do you think they're mispricing at the moment given that the data is pretty I mean okay it's been looking softer of late but then overnight you had the Atlanta Fed tipping the economy growing at a 4% annualised pace in the June quarter so that's pretty enviable. Look it is and certainly there has been mixed data coming through and I think the Fed's been able to look through that and still very much telegraph that they intend to tighten and I think that's why the market's pricing it that way. Non-farm payrolls tonight expectations of 185,000 compared to 211,000 last time although any revision to that will be closely monitored will be will be important in the short term. Now meanwhile you've got that story around the fiscal reform part of the growth story. Now if that isn't likely to fire through 2017 what risks still are the market giving to the very real likelihood of a recession potentially on rate rises. Is that going to constrain the Fed timetable? Well look it will do but as I said Castle it will be very dependent on how that the data falls over the next six months. At this stage I think as I said they've telegraphed their intention and the market is pricing in a modest chance of a further rate rate increase it will be as I said dependent on the on the data. Tim domestically it's been a fairly light-on week for issuance so what might we be looking forward to into next week? Look I think in terms of the Australian market the focus will be very much on the GDP data that's due out in the middle of the week forecast error of a point one percent increase. The risk I guess is that it could come in at a negative number given the small marginal margin of error and if that is the case then that potentially could be challenging for our market. I think you know if you look at where the Aussie US 10-year spread is at the moment that's currently at around that 20 points that's pretty much towards the 16-year lows of where it's been trading in recent times and as a result of a weaker than expected GDP number that spread could contract further. Speaking of lows I'm further witness in the $80 greenback cross and you're saying we're no longer seen as high yield and yet in relative terms does that story sort of wane or is it still very much alive and well even on one fed rate rise? No look I think the overall trend has been that in that direction for a little while now certainly you know our status as a high yield currency has wane given the lows that we are at the moment in terms of the 10-year spread we've only been at these levels twice before as I said 16 years ago and then the early 80s and prior to that it was in a different regime when we didn't have bond tenders so you know we are at significant levels if the market were to fall to to below that 20-point level you know I think we can we can say that the currency will be at risk it's been held in a very tight range for the last almost two years between the low 70s the high 70s and a break of of that 70 region given the the propensity for a lot of hot money to be involved in the Australian dollar we could really overshoot to the downside as we did overshoot to the upside when we broke through parity to the US dollar not so long ago. Gosh yeah it does seem on the one hand not so long ago but then equally quite some time ago and when was that my gosh 2014 are there abouts? Yeah look absolutely and I think the other thing to keep in mind is that the last time that the spread between the Aussie US bonds were at these levels the currency was sub 65 cents so in fact sorry it was sub 50 cents it was at 47 cents so you know there is potential for a fair degree of downward movement on the currency. Alright meltdown Tim thank you very much taught you soon. It seems like we're from FIG there in...