 The following is a presentation of TFNN The power trading hour with your host David white Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618 now David white And welcome all to another excellent addition of the power trading hour With me, and it doesn't matter where you're at you can be you could be on the moon As long as you're here and listening at this time The following takes place between 2 p.m. And 3 p.m Where day where are you Dave doesn't care to shake it like it's Up there Give me call today eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight and of course We've got a market that is reminiscent of one when I started in 1998 Talk about getting thrown in that a deep end. We're gonna talk about that and why I suspect We will eventually find out something. I Remember it took almost two years to get the truth out about the flash crash Although almost everybody already knew what it was we had some other things like that, but there's something going on and Yeah, us rubes are not privy to those conversations, but I think that story is probably over today and You know, you get a high volume Low like we're probably gonna have today means that maybe you come back and retest us low But I've seen lows like this that were mechanically driven not driven on market forces And they have maybe not as good a chance of retesting their lows in the short term So we'll look at that but we'll get into that with a little bit of history and everything else, but Yeah, it is one of those things where I I Cut my teeth from going from just a swing trader to actually sitting in front of a monitor in 1998 and of course the big thing that happened there was either late October or first week in November Was the culmination of a company called long-term capital management Management This disaster Encouraged Nassim to leave to write his book called fooled by rammed and a randomness but it Also reminds me a great deal of other things going on in the markets and not just now and Of course long-term capital management leave men brothers the Fed is slow to act and Then overreacts At least that's my view of both long-term capital management and Lehman brothers if we go back further in history As I say probably the first book you should read if you're ever interested In this business is reminiscence of a stock operator. I think he's got two separate Times that he was in the market where people had to come in to save the market It would have just bloated and there wouldn't been anything left but the first one I think was around 1907 and He chronicles The market just imploding and literally everything was going to go boom and Finally one of the big bankers the guy with the big red nose Trying to remember his name now Think it was JP Morgan Pretty sure it was JP Morgan Comes in to a market literally burning itself to death as lighting itself on fire and comes into the middle of a bunch of traders and The big board there in New York City and says there'll be all the money you need to start lining up over there and Put it into the one in 1907 pretty much something fairly interesting to Jesse a little more talks about It was I think it was JP Morgan maybe somebody else coming to him in 1929 during the crash and I don't know it was it wasn't the it was after the To the September or October crash in 1929, but I think it was weeks or months and everybody's getting ready to give up the ship and One of these big men of Wall Street comes by to Jesse and goes I know you got a lot of money short. In fact Jesse had A lot of money short. He was going to make about 300 million dollars on the crash in 1929 he says what are you going to do if there's nobody there on the opposite side and you can't get out because back then you literally had to buy back your shares and He says what good is it going to do you if the whole world goes up in flames and Jesse took that message to heart and started buying back his covering his short positions But there's a long history from long-term capital management on one of the biggest days That I will ever see at least on a percentage basis. It was easily. I think the SMP the Dow was down 500 points, which is kind of like being down about 1600 points today and That was in the morning and then I think about one or two o'clock Jamie Rubin and Greenspan come out and go You know what? We're going to make sure that everything's okay And of course it ended up closing about 500 points up, which is about 1500 points on the SMP cash I mean on the Dow so you had what was probably a 3000 point range in today's figures probably at least if it wasn't 2600 It was 3000 points probably in today's numbers, but both these things happened and of course long-term capital management and a lot of other companies that involve and hedge funds and nitwits Get into a market and really believe that they've mastered it in their king of the markets And of course long-term capital management was one that had three Count them three different Nobel laureates involved in the company. They'd all figured out that they could beat Everything if they just kept doubling down and doubling down and doubling down Well the Russian market and bond market in Russia blew up and that was it These guys were a hundred to one Leveraged in the bond market and that's all it took they almost took down the entire market with them and as I said You get these kind of moves, but the kind of moves we get today where no one's buying Almost always tells you that someone knows something and probably everybody on Wall Street knows who it is But there was someone out there and they all just stood back and let them fry It always reminds me of Of Well, it's a little gross I won't say that but there's a a few things it reminds me of but literally No one is going to come to your rescue They're gonna wait and tell everybody just blows it out, but my guess is we're gonna find out some more hedge funds Maybe the art fund Maybe some other ones out here that it were in real The dire straights and they dumped these shares out at the lows today now does that mean that everything's over it doesn't but Probably the worst I'm gonna say yes We're gonna be back in a minute you grinding in the market But seeing little to no return or are you a successful trader simply looking to make your job a little easier? Learn to take the path of least resistance with David White's powerful trading newsletter David White is an accomplished trader whose deep understanding of technology and the markets allows him to consistently find and share win trades Support and resistance define the ranges in which stocks trade by understanding these trading ranges David White is able to find a path of least resistance David White's trading newsletter the path of least resistance is delivered daily Before the markets open to make every trading day an easy win Visit tfnn.com today and subscribe to David White's ultimate trading newsletter for $119 a month and try all of our newsletters risk-free with our 30-day money back guarantee take the path of least resistance at tfnn educating investors What's separating you from the most successful men and women on Wall Street? 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To 4 p.m.. Eastern for free Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the Right moves with your money watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's YouTube channel and become the investor You were born to be tfnn educating investors Toll free at 1-877-927-6648 Internationally at 727-873-7618 and as we return Want to talk just a little bit more about it John and then post it a little bit more about the crash of 1907 and how the bankers came in and that led to the to the Formation of the Fed Whose job is supposed to be keeping these panics And slowing them down so that there's not a mechanical reason For a blowing out stocks, but I had a couple of emails about what do I think or why do I think this is happening now? And that is the mass of selling in the last 30 minutes of the day that tells you that somebody probably a broker For one of these hedge funds or an ARC fund or something Is saying hey, we need the cash now or we're selling stocks and I will sell it at any price We need to and we'll sell as much as we need to until we get you back into Compliance with how much you're gonna have and again probably a little bit of this is The Fed raising rates which almost always means that leverage has to come out of the market and For a great deal people are talking about the market doing the job of the Fed I Pretty much Don't think that's very healthy, but when we look back in the history. We find out that twice The Fed failed to act and caused a bigger problem. First one was on long-term capital management They should have been kicking their butts way into I'm gonna say 1996 There's no way that any company should have a hundred to one or 125 to one. It's hard to actually tell How big the margin was in that They did a couple things that Warren Buffett does which is they literally become the market by buying it all up But at the same time, how do you ever sell that? Well, they put a deal together and they bailed everything out and it was okay for a few years But it didn't take but yet for another year for all that to revisit us again and the debt comm bubble Lehman brothers the same thing. They said well, let them fry and guess what it was the infection that went to everything and I'm just very shocked The Fed hasn't really stepped in to slow this down now slowing it down means a couple things one We have the highest short interest going back for at least seven years now That is a lot of Shorts if the market just starts creeping up higher eventually It will probably continue to creep up higher until the shorts give up in which case the next big leg down Could happen so if you are bearish just remember these things come fairly quickly and then make you sweat Bullets for weeks and sometimes month and months until the next leg comes down There are about four books that I know of maybe even more on long-term capital management I would recommend reading one. There's a lot of stuff that I look at that doesn't happen very often And everybody wants to know the stuff that'll work every day. Well, generally that's okay but the stuff that's going to save you from blowing up and Walking into two or three days that ruins your life is going to be understanding these rare events as as Jesse Lerner not Jesse Lerner as Nessim to leave said Like long-term capital management. I think he spends a fairly good amount of his book Talking about the hubris going into that Lehman Brothers getting all fat and Nasty on the housing bubble But who didn't know and of course we're going to be able to write new new chapters in the book of financial dementia with a Cryptocurrency at its highs we had three point one trillion dollars in cryptocurrencies Right now or earlier in the day at least it was just under 1.8 billion So there's I mean 1.8 trillion so we had about 1.3 trillion Dollars in cryptocurrencies go to money have it someone had to buy at the highs which means they had at least to this point Given up about a third or more of the overall money now that bitcoins a little different kind of the old guard out here It's a little bit a little bit more Long in the tooth than the others so it doesn't have as many new shares coming in I'll call shares coins But if to really understand the market and make it long term It's not the stuff that works every day that's going to save your bank And it's the stuff that you only see every once in a while because guess what? That's why there's so many traders that have only been around for four or five or six years They get used to everything they think they know it all and one of these rare events comes out of the woods and Disclubs you like a baby seal, but there's a couple. I think the ones that I read were was inventing money About long-term capital management a little less about Lehman brothers. It's a little easier to understand The hubris of a long-term capital management though Epic I think they made a movie of it, but it wasn't very good. I can't remember now But that's it you can give me call 8779276648. Let's do a little history On this day in 1984 Apple computer launches Macintosh computers with a demonstration of the computer in front of 3,000 people of course this was just after Think the Super Bowl about a week after when they bought that Super Bowl ad which is iconic Why the Apple ESA was the first commercial computer with a graphical interface the Macintosh would bring graphical Computing and computing in general to the rest of us as Apple's early slogan for Macintosh claimed Well, the problem was there wasn't any real software for it It was rather slow. You couldn't really buy faster versions of it better processors or anything It was what it was and because it didn't have a really good application Like the Apple twos did which was all these guys getting out of NBA school With their masters or their bachelors In accounting and wanting a spreadsheet. There wasn't the real Link in for Apple in fact Apple could have gone out of business And we would have never heard probably any more about Steve Jobs but In a rare turn of history someone walks in the door in early 1985 This company make desktop publishing software. They've also made a deal with Kira Sira, I think it was Kira Sira To make laser printers that used post script generally a very high-end Product I think even back in the mid 90s or 80s here. These things were already $3,500 so fairly expensive But it's opposed to paying a printer and waiting a week to see what you got The advent of desktop publishing saved Apple and of course they bought their printers and had them Relabeled and made a lot of money on just selling in fact made a lot more money on selling the printer Then they ever did on selling back at watch and through about 1987 But a history will teach you a lot, but man if you haven't been through a few of these Then generally you're fairly I Will be back in a minute fun trading the markets But having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with become an apex predator in the trading markets And join the Tiger's Den trading room only at tfnn.com The Tiger's Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas Join the den and surround yourself with the sharpest minds in the trading world Subscribers to the Tigers then are also the first to have their questions answered live on air and can privately chat with our Tfnn hosts live during their shows Interact with other Tigers and Tiger's as they share trading ideas news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day Subscribe to the Tigers then risk-free with our 30-day money back guarantee and become part of the tfnn trading community tfnn educating investors You could be making money off the stock market and if you're already making money off the stock market You could be making a lot more check out tfnn and Tiger TV and get expert investing advice to give you the power to Control your financial future go to tfnn.com and find the newsletter for you whether you're into trading gold Metals futures currencies or options you'll get advice and analysis to help you seriously get ahead tfnn also features trading services with a 30-day money back guarantee for new subscribers as well as tfnn's Tiger Den trading room trading software and educational webinars for all trading levels and make sure you check out Tiger TV for free on tfnn.com or tfnn's YouTube channel for live financial content from 8 30 a.m. To 4 p.m. Eastern on market days Stop watching on the sidelines while other people get rich and become the investor. You were born to be tfnn educating investors tfnn is excited about our new software charting program the art of timing the trade charts in Collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best-selling book the art of timing the trade your ultimate trading mastery system David White has programmed an Outstanding piece of software that will complement any traders methodology using this first of its kind program the art of timing the trade charts allows You to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups including guardlies ABCs butterflies and much more the art of timing the trade Charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks Just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days weeks or even months Searching to find and right now we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month we are so confident that you're gonna love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day Unconditional money-back guarantee don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software Get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting tfnn.com This segment is brought to you by think or swim For more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com We're gonna go to David and framing him Massachusetts How you doing today? Hi Hey, I'm right here. Go ahead How is he do you think that the SMT has bottomed in today with this capitulation. I Think it has for the week. We'll see what it does the rest of the week But yeah, I was buying calls for Friday this morning So yeah, I do think it is bottom at least for a little while got the fed coming out at 2 on Wednesday I think they'll probably be a little bit less hawkish than they thought they see the market down 500 points in Handful of days For the s&p's and yeah, they're gonna they're gonna start getting the phone call and I you probably don't know which one it is Yeah, I'll tell you what it is and this is I'm senator so-and-so and what are you doing? This is this is what Powell's going to be getting For the rest of the week because these guys all want to get reelected. Thanks. Don't look good for him already And they're gonna go They're gonna go, you know what what are you doing? Are you nuts? Are you I mean you don't yell fire in a crowded theater and You know, there there a lot of people say well, you know, it's just temporary and stuff, you know, it's not different I said two weeks ago. I think this is going to be the year of picking stocks I think that you're gonna have a Index that maybe moves around a bit like the Nasdaq or the s&p's But there's gonna be as many winners as losers and it's gonna be you're not gonna be making a lot of money Just going along the indexes. It's going to be picking the fastest horses and getting off of them And getting on yet another faster horse Yeah, because I thought that the Anybody that wants to be out of the market worried about the Fed is gone here and the market is beginning to stabilize here That's yeah, there's probably a little bit of that But I think a lot of this Was probably We're gonna find out that there was probably a handful of folks that were way over the tips of their skis Yeah, and now you remember that I it sounds like you got a little aged your voice I remember every Saturday watching the wide world of sports that same skier. He never learned She just kept on jumping over and absolutely getting smashed to bits Yeah, but yeah, there's there was way over the tips of their skis, which is where that saying comes from and Yeah, they have to clean them out every once in a while, but generally I think we've got enough to get the The market back down to about the mean of the growth going forward I showed that chart maybe three four weeks ago. Maybe before Christmas can't remember And said this is the most important chart you need to look at There wasn't a lot to tell us that This would happen, you know last week and this week normally doesn't happen During options expiration So another kind of year of everything being breaking all the rules But yeah, I think we're probably in stocks that are cheap Relative on a PE basis are probably going to do fine if you've got high growth and you don't need a lot of cash I think you're going to do fine But I think we're probably just going to hover after the recovery today into what the Fed says and The feds probably going to know by the congressman and senators calling them They probably may not change what they do, but certainly the tone and speed of what they do Will be a lot different. I'm sure they're getting a near full From the president or his office. Yeah, so yeah, I think there's probably a lot in there And of course the idea of the Fed someone brought it up Was to yeah someone in the den says this is going to be a pony express market Hopping off one horse and getting on a fresh new one But I think that's going to be a lot of it if you think we're just going to be able to sit back on your stocks and Look forward. I think it's just going to be everybody looking for a faster horse for a while until these Interest rate hikes are in which I don't think are all that big a difference or big a move And I think actually we're probably looking for the best things I see kind of the looking forward past the end of the pandemic I think it could evaporate as if you look at other ones in the past Historically you get this one big last move and then it just burns itself out. I hadn't yet, but I'm the best people I follow Suspect that the numbers do tell us that Yeah, so anyways, so I yeah, I felt as though that this could have been it Like today's clean out here this morning Yeah, you can always get it you can always get a retest of the low though, right? Right, you can't if it does and I don't I don't think we're going to get that this week I think I think you the Fed is probably going to be a little bit more dovish in what they say But not what they do and everybody will go, okay Well, maybe they only go three times or two times this year if the market keeps pulling back and everything with the unrest of you know invasion of Taiwan and and the Ukraine and Kind of a lack of confidence in the US government around the world for geopolitical events and You know as long as Crude prices remain high too. That's a massive tax on everyone So I mean, it's not all rosy But if you're in a company that doesn't have to worry about the high price of Transportation You know you're probably going to continue to have a year full of inflation Yeah, David, do you see the this pet turning into a v-shaped pattern here on the war? Probably more ewish and we're probably at the bottom. Yeah more ewish. I think there's probably a fairly good Bet out here. We've had it now. The question is do you see selling again into the clothes today? If you do that tells you that whoever is on the whip and post is not done yet I don't think we do because I would imagine they would have dumped those shares on Friday I would agree with you. Yes. Yeah, just because if you're a If you're a Somebody on in Wall Street a broker and you got somebody that's way out of margin You just get rid of it. It doesn't matter what it is. Yeah, right, right, right? I think they I was just thinking that At around three o'clock, there'll be margin calls going out and that'll be the end of it if it does drop Otherwise, they really Yeah, generally they don't like to go into a weekend with those margin calls Yeah, so my guess if anybody was actually very close to begin with. Yeah, that's it. You may have More retail traders now. I put it in my newsletter this morning, but the the Dark pool numbers are very Low which suggests a lot of the selling over the last day or so is probably retail traders and they tend to Give up their shares at the very lows. Yeah, do the absolute wrong thing at the wrong time Oh, so probably pretty close, but yeah, we can watch But yeah, could we get a retest yet again today? I think we could but not much else Okay, thank you very much David. You're very good. Thank you bet. Thanks. Thank you Today's decline enough to create more margin calls tomorrow morning Well, first of all, that's not the way it works. We'll talk about way margin calls actually But we return Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area including the surrounding st. 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There was a big movie with that title not a bad movie to watch by the way of Basically a Lehman brothers fiasco In fact, I would recommend it highly But let's go back to marriage real margin calls in the market They happen twice a day You're gonna find they happen at 10 30 in the morning and Then they happen about now at 230 and what happens is you if you're a big guy on Wall Street or Retail trader you're gonna if your retail trader you get an email Maybe if you're lucky the broker calls you and he says you've got 30 minutes to put cash in to get your margin back in line or we're gonna sell you out and Everybody on Wall Street pretty much knows how that number is gonna come in for the different stocks So I'm not surprised. We're getting a little bit here, but it doesn't look bad so far But normally around this time now when does the actual selling come in? From about three ten to three thirty and My guess is that you'll probably see a little dip then the last 30 minutes are really what you're going to be calling about Are really be watching today And my guess is that you had the most of it on Friday You have a little less of it a lot of stocks already reversed So if you were good on Friday, I'm gonna say three-fourths of the stocks are probably gonna be okay today and This kind of puts an end to it now If it day if you get a day then everybody gets a little bit better off, but you got the Fed I don't know if a lot of people are gonna want to get into the Fed or get in front of the Fed on Wednesday But I think there's that now there is of course a lot of Gamifying what the Fed is gonna say. I just can't believe I don't think they're gonna change what they're gonna do But I do think that the tone is going to be very different now that the S&P went down 500 points straight They will understand that Letting the air out of the balloon This makes it fly around real quick and then of course it's all out and if you don't slow down the roll You do get into the problem of having a huge mechanical never-ending whirlpool of the pit of despair and I'm sure they get like I said, I'm sure they got an earful of it this weekend I'm sure they're getting an earful of it this week From the people over their heads and that is what are you doing? If you want to let the market out you just don't you just don't open the door to the refrigerator and leave it open and Yeah, or run around with scissors. There's a few things my mom yelled me at I remember that running around with scissors and That's the first thing I did when I got my first apartment was leave the refrigerator door open Fan it a little bit and run around with scissors just to assert my dominance in my new abode Anyway, we're off 109 points as I said a Do we had 114? Are we going to get a little bit more here? Yes, do we probably break I don't think so But we shall see but I think we've got kind of the low end for a little bit and we'll see But there's going to be some selling You know, it's not going to be over In the olden days they'd give you three days But remember those times 10 30 in the morning 2 30 in the afternoon 2 4 5 those when the calls are going to go out to the people that are on the wrong side of the market and Hoping that they'd get a bounce and then they could sell out of it That ain't gonna happen. As I said before I'm not adding Really to anything that I'm gonna have overnight for equity positions If I'm buying something it's buying at the lows and selling 30 minutes later or 45 minutes later I did that a couple of times today, but if I'm gonna buy something it's gonna be something with some asymmetrical reward like an option where my where I can risk maybe 3% of my portfolio or less and Maybe get 9% back or 12% back. I'm not going to be betting the farm I'm going to have my wrist controlled and you know If you get one of those huge down thrusts where everybody's coughing up calls Not a bad time to buy it You've got to get out of them and of course so once the market starts moving higher Everybody I want to want them and the premiums will start coming back in on the calls Which they were about nothing this morning eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight And see what else do we have here? Okay Okay, Dave do you think Microsoft is a buy now? Yeah You went and retested the candles of this low. Let's get out of this and reset it 2825 you got through it this morning You had twice the volume Yeah, it's hard for me. You got a little bit more energy on the way down I'm going to say Microsoft more likely is in a bigger trading range and that trading range may last for a while Many of these other big companies are out there. It does not have the same real problems that companies like Facebook and Google have with regulation Google and Facebook have done exactly what you're not supposed to do and that's tick off everybody On one side or another or for one reason or another And literally everybody hates you Google continues to assault the free speech of at least half of America on a daily basis And other things that are rather hideous I just don't understand who in the world thinks like this But apparently they all do So do I think that these kind of bigger companies are coming in for a reckoning? On both sides of the aisle politically. Yes, and they're you know, probably going to have at least one if not two sides of Congress with subpoena authority after November and As that happens, what are these guys going to do? They are going to be sitting in front of people that they would not like Or they wouldn't let speak Not because they said anything that was wrong just because they thought maybe they would say something was wrong And I don't think it's going to go well for them at all The pendulums in societal evolution swing at very large, but when they get to one Extreme they swing back fairly quickly and I think their war on free speech is going to be a huge issue against Google and Why they can't maybe do anything on a frontal assault. I Think everybody in the world is going to be going after Google and Facebook for Antitrust violations Google on its ad front Already facing this in Europe Facebook as I said, I'm making a rather bold prediction that by the end of the year. Zuckerberg is gone And he's hiding out on his compound in Hawaii. You had a good test down here on Facebook You're gonna have more volume But like I said, probably you could get back up to 325 you probably good, but I think all these stocks in antitrust Sites are problematic for the long term Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument You have to practice sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts at TFNN You'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV Live every market day from 8 30 a.m. To 4 p.m. Eastern for free Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help You make the right moves with your money watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor You were born to be TFNN educating investors You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? 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That's 877-518-9190 catch Tom O'Brien professional trader and educator founder of TFNN also a special guest on CNBC Tom will bicep and dissect the markets the Tom O'Brien show next on TFNN I had some more questions about margin at least what I believe If it has not been my experience somebody that didn't said you normally have three days to close a call all I can think of is last year with interactive brokers and when everybody went the wrong way on the Oil contracts before they bought them. They didn't give anybody five seconds. They booted you out instantly They didn't even give you a phone call. So it depends. It's more Less of a rule and more of a suggestion set from the curse of the black pearl about Parley rules and stuff But yeah, it's they don't have to do anything They can take you out in a New York second and guess what if they think you wouldn't pay them back They're gonna do it And especially if you're a retail trader They won't worry about your business because you're they're not gonna make that much off of you They're more than interested in you know losing 10 grand real quick You'd have to be their customer for the next 10 years for them to get it back And Sometimes sometimes not Actually That was a little bullish ruby Just a little like I said, I'm more interested in individual stocks than that Another question about uh, why do we see the selling at the very last 30 minutes Of the day when you say that the margin calls come in at 2 15 Because they're selling those Into the dark pools and those don't instantly get reported They're supposed to But not one person's ever been fined No, well one company's ever been fined that I know of and I'll watch the FINRA And sec stuff fairly religiously I don't see a lot ever happening to anybody that sells something at 2 at 3 15 and then You know says the and here it is at 3 3 45 or 3 50 they just get it in for the So when you can not when you have to and we will return like mccarthur to the philippines tomorrow