 Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. My paper is on transportation and climate change in Nigeria. And I've co-authored it with a colleague at the Ministry of Physical Planning in Lagos. Our focus, really, is on CO2. And the study context is Lagos, Nigeria. We want to start with global figures before we go down to what's happening in Nigeria. Globally, we have transports responsible for as much as 23% of energy-related CO2 emissions. There are different figures for this, but this is from the African Development Bank. And then set to account for as much as 30% of greenhouse gases. CO2 emissions are predicted to increase by as much as 120% by 2050. And the IPCC cautions that we would need to reduce by 50% in developing countries, CO2 emissions, if we are going to have sustainable levels. Though there are thoughts that CO2 emissions are low in developing countries. And like somebody said at the plenary, why do you even bother to measure them? But the issues are that the lifestyles and the economic activities are centered around patterns that promote modes that are polluting in the transport sector. So even if we don't have clear-cut issues now, we want to avoid them altogether in the long term by taking caution now. Now, the road transport soft sector is a major contributor to total transport emissions. We have an example in London, 80% of CO2 emissions. Incidentally, this transport mode forms the major mode. It's the major mode for internal movement in Nigeria. Now, this graph is on fossil fuel consumption, CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption in Nigeria over a century, from 1910 to 2010. We know that transport is a major user of fossil fuels. We've had significant increases of over 54% in the last century. And in the last 20-hour decades, we've had a steep upward climb in total CO2 emissions from fossil fuels from about 1997. There have been large contributions from liquid fuels from about 1970. Now, this is for CO2 emissions from different economic activities in Nigeria. We don't have this data for several years. But we have two years. We can look at here, 1999, 2003. And we see transport standing out clearly as a major contributor in CO2 emissions, 38% in 1999, 41.6% in 2003. Now, we want to conceptualize the issues before we go on. And this study, the conceptual background to this study is an urban form, transport demand, and climate change. How does one lead to the other? Now, we have several urban spatial structures. We talked about that at the last session. They are monocentric structures. We have polycentric structures. The monocentric ones are the ones we have one single CBD, a central business district. And then the polycentric one, we have several central business districts. There's really no one that is outstanding. But for the composite one, there's a major central business district. And then you have all the major commercial business districts that have developed around the CBD, or in different parts of the city. And this composite structure seems to fit the Lagos pattern more than the other two. Now, the urban spatial structure will determine the land use patterns. These land use patterns will naturally dictate the transport network form. And the transport network will determine which modes are preponderant in the city. These modes could be individual. They could be transit. Now, the transport modes will also affect the daily trip patterns, the total vehicle kilometers traveled and the passenger kilometers traveled. And these are the things that will now influence global, the GAG emissions. So this is the link between urban morphology, transport demand, and climate change. Now, this is the study context, Lagos, Nigeria. The fairly small territory, but very complex urban area. The most complex we have in Nigeria, about 17.5 million. It's been designated a mega city by the United Nations, actually. And that mega city region is just a part. It's just a part of the entire city. It's about 37% of the land mass. But that part houses about 90% of the population. We have very high population densities, as much as 5,032 in the state as a whole. And in the mega city region, we are looking at about 20,000 people per square kilometers. We've had the same economic growth in Lagos. And the CBD, the Central Business District, is the Lagos Island, actually. But we also have commercial business districts in several parts of Ikeja, Agegei, Koroju, there. Now, we looked at the vehicle inventory in Lagos. This gives us the vehicle inventory. All vehicle types are represented here. We have private vehicles, public transport. Everything is represented here. And we've had a total increase by as much as 234% over a decade. This has been composed mostly of private cars. And we know that private cars are regarded as the most polluting modes in the transport sector. Motorcycles have also increased tremendously. But public transport comes to be in short supply. Now, this is what we call the vehicle profile and the model split paradox. You can see the different types of vehicles accounting for so much percentage of the vehicle fleet. Look at the private car. As much as 78% of the vehicle fleet. But only 7.8% of trips. The buses, about 10%, accounting for 70% of the trips. The BRT, that's the bus rapid transit. It came on about 2007 in Lagos. But it accounts for only about 2.3% of the trips. Now, the territory itself, the territory of Lagos is about 22% of water. But only about 1.03% of commuters use the inland waterways. That mode is really, it's not developed as such. Now, what are the implications of this for development? Like we've been told, climate change is not really, it's not all about the environment. It's about development. We have public transport in short supply. We have private cars proliferating largely in the urban space. And what it means is that it's the most polluting modes that are the most popular modes in Lagos. Now, these are the climate parameters for a 30-year period. 1976 to about 2005. And we have divided into two halves, 15 years this way, 15 years the other way. And the summary we have here is that we have high average rainfall and temperature records for this last half of the 30-year period. And we've also seen that there are wider variabilities in these parameters in the last half of the period we're looking at. Now, what are the implications of this for development again in Lagos? Increasing volumes of rainfall, of course, coupled with the flat topography of the city, predisposes to frequent flooding. We've had flooding episodes, several of them in Lagos in the last few years. And there was a survey in 2010. We were told 38% of household street access were actually affected by floods. And these are pictures from Lagos. These are some of the implications of increased rainfall, hydrologic change. Seeing flooding episodes, we have the erosion of beaches. This is Kuramo Beach. This happened just about two months back. It was inundated. And we had that episode in August. That's the erosion of beaches. Now, there's also the inundation of highways and the erosion of road bases, the erosion of beach supports. And we find that a lot of transport infrastructure is affected when we have these floods. And so there's a kind of a reverse effect. Transport is contributing to climate change. And then the extreme weather events that we have from this climate change is also affecting the transport infrastructure. So we have that problem. And now, for temperatures, we said warmer temperatures, of course, will have to drive us stress through physiological discomforts and fatigue. And we expect that human errors are more likely to occur. The consequences from increased rainfall seem to be more direct than the consequences for increased temperature. That is for the transport sector. So we want to link the two scenarios in Lagos, the transport modes and the climate change situation. And let me just say here that we cannot direct entirely and describe the changes in climate to the transport sector. But we do know that there are linkages from the data on transport contribution as an economic activity. And there are also reverse effects. We have said it, the floods depreciate transport infrastructure. And then you have less road space for cars, more congestion, more pollution. And this is CO2 emissions from major transport modes in Lagos. Now we can see here the commuters on the third column. And then we have the model percentage of commuters. And then on that side, we have the model percentage of emissions. And we can see, again, the private car accounting for about 7.08% of commuters, but as much as 31% of emissions. Now in terms of total tons, the mini bus appears to have the most. But in terms of CO2 per passenger kilometer traveled, those modes are actually more efficient than the private cars. We can see the BRT seems to be the best of them. That's the bus rapid transit. And we said this table actually contains the best case scenario. Because what we did was that we used data for commuters for Lagos. But the vehicle emission capacity was based on the model by Bittorre Hall. And what it used was for New York City. And we know that the cars in Nigeria are fairly old. They are mostly used cars. And emissions are likely to be even higher. So we calculated the total kilogram per air per commuter from the major modes was about 517.03 of CO2 equivalent. And what's the message here? Lagos commuters appear to be contributing a lot to the pool of CO2 emissions. And we can do better than that. Now these are the suggestions for policy. We want to reduce, well, to reduce daily distance traveled through changes in land use we said may not be as popular. Most times it's not effective. So we are looking at alternatives to promote public transports. And to do this we need to make that mode competitive and attractive. We need to provide incentives. It has to be cheaper. And apart from being cheaper it has to be convenient because a lot of people will not take it in Lagos if it doesn't offer the convenience. And it has to be prioritized. When we have bus priority lanes then we know that we can reduce trip time for commuters. That would be for the short term. Now in the medium and long term we said the light rail transit will have to be developed because there's limited road space to work with. Now model shifts towards public transport will happen in Lagos. Only if price and transit time as well as convenience are more competitive with other modes. Thank you so much for listening.