 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We've got a full 10 match slate for EPL match week 25 coming up Saturday through Monday So we've got Austin cast on the show to break down his thoughts on that from a betting perspective Good excuse get Austin back on the show once again later on I'll talk about NASCAR at Daytona break down some bets I like for the truck series and exciting series and maybe talk about some cups series stuff as well This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim sawed us I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here as mentioned by Austin cast check him out on Twitter And Austin cast find his work at Fandall research where he is a senior editor Austin Happy to have you back on the show for today. How you doing? Generally, wow, how are you doing Jim? I'm doing delightful more delightful now that we are back to our regular cadence of having you on every Friday Once again that darn other football game in the way of our Austin cast time here on the show So we'll dive into EPL match week 25 and outline where Austin sees value for this weekend I highlighted a couple of key matches as well But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We have our breakdown of the Envy all-star weekend festivities already up with Tom Vecchio There is a timestamp for that in the episode description over on Fandall research over on Apple On spot skip ahead past the Thursday betting thoughts and into the three-point contest dunk contest thoughts from Tom as well That's up on the covering the spread podcast feed and over on the Fandall YouTube page and Fandall TV plus to get these shows as they're posted each And every day make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread also check us out on the Fandall YouTube page and Fandall TV Plus no show on Monday because we are off for a company holiday, but back with you once again on Tuesday of next week Let's dive right in Austin and talk about match week 25 in the EPL Let's begin with what looks like the headline match in the slate that is Man City taking on Chelsea and Chelsea hasn't had the best year by any means So Man City's money line is minus 310 right now. When you look at this match anything stand out to you Yeah, so my favorite bet from this game is actually a player prop and It's Phil Foden to score or assist for a man city I think city role in this game the betting odds reflect that the odds makers also think that and It's a little bit puzzling to me that Foden is plus 105 to score or assist given how well he's been playing this year He has eight goals and seven assists in league play Across his last four matches in all competitions. He has four goals and two assists City are pretty much doing what they've done the past three years Around this time of year. They flip the switch just start running away with things. They haven't lost since December 6 That's a run of 12 matches. They scored at least twice in 11 of those 12 games In their earlier meeting with Chelsea this year. It was a wild 4-4 game City of Mass 2.9 expected goals on that one and that was at Stanford Bridge. This one will be at home for city They're minus the city are minus 3 30 to go over one and a half goals So they're probably gonna score goals and probably gonna win this match But I think the pretty much the standard match odds are pretty pretty fair and they're pretty accurate I think but this Foden one plus 105 I Feel like I pretty much come come to you with a score or assist prop everything I really love that wiggle room that they don't have to score the goal and Sometimes you can get an assist for not really doing much at all. You just Dish to somebody and they make a special play, but My only word of warning here is I would make sure he starts luckily This is a 12 30 Eastern time game. He'll probably start but City played In Denmark midweek in the Champions League. So there's a chance maybe they rest a few players But given where they're at in the league, they really Can't afford to rest too many guys So I'm guessing that he'll play and like I said, it's not one of the times you got to get up early to do it That is a blessing for sure I said 12 30 match on Saturday Foden is plus 105 and there are quite a few Players ahead of him in the score or assist market Why is Foden this far down the pecking order in your eyes? And why do you think he should be a bit higher? Well, some of those guys are strikers. You probably won't start. Okay, like Bob and Hamilton there But Yeah, De Bruyne has come back. He is a really unbelievable player He's just been it's insane how good he's been in just the limited matches He's played since he's come back from injury, but that kind of bumps Foden down the pecking order a little bit in terms of He doesn't take corners anymore De Bruyne will and De Bruyne and Holland are just the guys you're probably going to take the most shots on target Alvarez when he plays is Also right up there, but lately Alvarez hasn't been starting and having De Bruyne It probably gives Foden better chances to record assists than what he would have had otherwise but so far it's actually helped his goal scoring form De Bruyne has helped set him up, but Really, they just have a ridiculous group of attacking players that they can put out there at one time and Any of those starting guys who are in kind of their front forward depending on what formation they use if they're at plus money and pretty much any match They're very appealing All right So Foden is a plus 105 at Fandall Sports are from Man City versus Chelsea on a Saturday again As Austin said makes you check the starting lineup once it comes out Saturday to ensure that Foden is in fact in there Just to safeguard yourself in case he does not play but then sir does not start but then subs in later on Eight other matches across Saturday and Sunday specifically Austin. So we look at those other matches Which bet stand out to you as of now So my favorite bet to the weekend come from the Everton Crystal Palace matchup, which is the lone Monday game for this week This one's at Everton and I really like Everton in this one and there's two ways I want to take advantage of that I like Everton's just on the money line straight up at minus 140 But I also like Everton over one and a half goals, which is minus 104 You can find that in the goals tab. Thank you. You probably got the hang of it now But uh, this is a really big matchup at the bottom of the table Everton are currently in the drop zone in 18th and Palace are in 15th But despite the places in the table pretty much any way you slice at Everton have been the better side this year They're expected goal differential according to FB res model is plus 2.9, which actually ranks ninth in the league Basically the main reason they are where they are is they got a 10-point deduction as a punishment handed down to the club Without that they'd be safe in the middle of the table, but with it. They're really going to be up against it and have very little wiggle room for Where they're going to be in a relegation battle on top of Palace Sorry, their expected goal differential is minus 8.5 So roughly 10 goals worse than Everton's on top of the XG numbers. Palace are going to be without Michael Olise and Everichae Eze they're two best players who I think we've talked about them before on this podcast With those two guys they probably wouldn't be in a relegation fight, but without them They're one of the worst teams in the league. Those two have combined for 15 Total goals and assists and Palace only have 27 goals in the season And they haven't been good on the other end either They failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 13 matches and that stretch started with a 3-2 home loss to Everton Plus this match being at Everton's a really big deal Over the last two seasons Everton swerved with relegation, but have really been saved by their home matches And things are trending that way this year too. Over their last five home home fixtures They've lost just once despite playing Aston Villa, Tottenham, Man City, Chelsea and Newcastle in those matches So personally I slightly prefer the Everton money line at minus 140 But I also really like them to go over one and a half goals at minus 104 That number as you mentioned is in the goals to have that fan dual sports book home team over under one half goals minus 104 So you're getting a bit of exposure via the money line But then you can also add in a bit more should they decide to have a pretty good offensive output Any consideration for you for the other alt markets here because you don't work under two and a half goals Over is plus 330 over three and a half might be ambitious. That's 10 to 1 right now Consideration for you for playing this like a ladder situation where you put your largest bed size on the money line Put a bit more on over one and a half goals bit more on over two and a half goals Or do you think that this is just the ideal way to play things for Everton? Um, it's definitely worth considering three three and a half is is definitely pretty ambitious. What's the odds reflect? I could see it happening because things are kind of snowballing for crystal palace right now. So if they got down, maybe they just kind of like fold but With how important this matches for Everton and and getting three points would be massive for them I see them probably Being a little more defensive and conservative if they score twice that would be my hesitation there but Overall, they've been much better in attack According to xg than most people would assume they've been and they're capable on their day, especially at home Alrighty so that market again Everton over one and a half goals minus 104 along with the Everton money line at minus 140 And then we also had phil phoden to score or assist plus 105 in the man city versus chelsea match That is austin cast make sure you check him out on twitter at austin cast find his work at fando research Where he is a senior editor austin appreciate the time as always enjoy the soccer this weekend We'll talk to you once again next week here same time same place Sounds good. Enjoy the nascar this weekend. I very much will and I think you will as well That is austin cast again on twitter at austin cast speaking of nascar We're gonna dive in to date tona and not just talk about the cup series But also expand a bit on the truck series and xfinity series An outline where I see value here in just one second But first get buckets with your first bet on fan duel america's number one sports book because right now New customers get 150 dollars in bonus bets with any winning five dollar bet That's 150 bucks if your bet wins bet all your favorite nba players and teens with quick bets live same game parlades exclusive props and more Just visit the fan duel app and shoot your shot fan duel official sports book partner of the nba must be 21 plus And president select states first online real money wager only 10 dollar first deposit required Bonus issued is now a travel bonus bets that expire after seven days after receipt See terms of sports book dot fan duel dot com fan duel is offering online sports waging in kansas Under an agreement with kansas star casino llc gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit fan duel dot com slash rg colorado Iowa michigan new jersey ohio pennsylvania illinois kentucky tennessee virginian vermont call 100 next step Or text next step to five three three four two in arizona one eight eight seven eight nine 7777 or visit ccpg dot org slash chat connecticut 1809 with it in indiana 1805 224 700 was a ks gambling health dot com in kansas 18077 770 stop in louisiana visit md gambling health at orgin mariland 180 gambling dot net in west virginia 1805 222 4700 miyoming hope is here was a gambling helpline ma.org or call 800 327 50 50 for 24 seven supporter massachusetts Or call 1807 70 hopin y or text hopin y in new york Let's dig in now to nascar once again We did see the qualifying races for the day 200 500 last night to set the starting grid for the cup series side of things I think the big takeaway from last night's races was that toyota looked really good when they were in the draft They won both qualifying races with christa rebella tyler retic and when you look at the odds at faddle sports book I don't think that's being priced in quite as much as it should be and it does create a bit of value I think uh martin truex jr truex is 23 to 1 Right now at faddle sports book the implied odds at plus 2300 are 4.2 percent Right now my model. I had truex at 4.9 percent to win this race without giving him a huge bump Based on what we saw last night, but anecdotally. I do think they deserve that just based on How fast they were it's not just the fact they won but they were able to work together They really worked their way through the pack despite qualifying poorly and that does matter a pretty decent amount Truex specifically will start mid-pack because he had an issue where he ran out of fuel During the dual race tried to help jimmy johnson get in the day 200 500 as a toyota teammate as well He did do so successfully which means toyota will have nine cars in this race, which better creates more cooperation between the teams that we've seen before now truex notoriously has never won on a super speedway, but Did come close in Daytona a couple years ago finished second behind eric jones his teammate at the time And I think he's been a lot better than what perception is of him on super speedways So as I look at the board right now for the Daytona 500 specifically I think the best value is in taking martin truex jr 23 to 1 to win this race again I've got him at 4.9 percent implied odds are down at 4.2 percent That's enough value for me to feel good about truex again despite the fact He notoriously has never won on a track like this So for the cup series, that's kind of the one place I saw value with the reposted odds So we'll stick to just that one for right now as far as other series Truck series odds at Daytona are not currently back up at vandal sportsbook So let's check back on those later to see if they do get posted but They had a practice session yesterday and we don't tend to see things shift a ton Based on practice. I'm gonna assume that we're gonna see odds reopen About where they were before and if they do so I want to be on tyler ankram As the one bet where I see good value right now in the truck series Ankram was 20 to 1 yesterday at vandal sportsbook And this will be ankram's debut with mackinally hillerman racing And he wasn't in bad equipment before the torii But this is definitely better because mackinally hillerman was able to get wins on more speed-centric tracks last year So I think it's an upgrade for ankram and that does matter because speed if it's not like as essential here I'd rather be in a fast truck than a short than a slow one An akram himself is also Good on pack tracks even if he doesn't always have the finishes to show for it Since the start of 2022 the truck series has run six pack races Ankram has had a top 10 average running position in four of those six races Those races came during its age 21 and age 22 seasons And if you look at aging curse david smith formerly of the athletic now with rfk racing Did a lot of research into when drivers hit their peaks their big peak is at age 39 Ankram is nowhere near that but there is like a mini peak around age 24 when You start to see their hand-eye coordination Get to a better spot Ankram not quite there yet but getting closer. So we should see continued improvements my model Has an akram's win odds at 6.1 percent His implied odds if he does reopen at 20 to 1 are 4.8 percent. So I'd be okay taking ankram anything 18 to 1 or longer personally. I think that's appropriate Given how good he's been on these tracks given the improved equipment. I think that does make a lot of sense So tyler ankram the one truck series bet on i'm eyeing right now In the Xfinity series, we did see some value get scooped up yesterday. I was on riley herbst talked about him He had yesterday's sim piece over on fandal research. He was 22 to 1 He has been shortened down to 19 to 1 So still a tiny tiny value for me but not big enough for me to feel great about that If you can find herbst longer 22 to 1, you know post practice post qualifying Then I would be in there for sure But that's the that's that's not there right now The biggest value that is available is daniel suarez at 16 to 1 Suarez is a situation which you will see at times in the Truck series and Xfinity series where I think he's being improperly handicapped based on his team Listed on the entry list is suarez as driving for ss green light racing And their equipment is not good But in actuality if you look at uh fox sports bob potgrass is importing It's a car prepared by collig racing and there's evidence That's true because uh suarez is running a Chevy while ss green light typically runs forwards Collig Has a very good Xfinity program So that means that suarez is in a very competitive ride and he's gotten much better odd pack tracks in cup recently We over the past two years in the next generation suarez has seven top tens and 12 races on pack tracks That's why sorry my model has uh suarez with the second highest win odds in the field at 8.7 That is well above his implied odds of 5.9 percent. So I personally think suarez is a great bet He's 16 to 1. I'm very on board of that if you want a bit of a long shot Ryan sig is 50 to 1 prefer him in Not outright markets like top 5s, but we don't have those as a fandall. So I think for me, it's more so about suarez at 16 to 1 Herbs if you can get him at 22 to 1 or longer and then maybe if you just want a fun bet That you expect to lose ryan seek 50 to 1 could be the way you go there. So updated value recommendations for daytona. I like martin shurex jr. 23 to 1 to win in cup. I like uh Tyler anchorman 20 to 1 or longer to win in the truck series Daniel suarez 16 to 1 in the xfinity series as well That's all that we have for today and this week here on the show as mentioned No show on monday next week due to a company holiday back with you on tuesday big Thank you once again to austin cast for making an epl match week 25 Find austin on twitter at austin cast. I am on twitter at jim sonnis You can find me on threads at jim dot sonnis and check out fandall research on twitter At fandall research want to thank you all for tuning in for today and this week. Good luck to you with your bets across this weekend We'll talk to you once again on tuesday. This has been covering the spread right here on the fandall podcast network