 Good day, fellow investors. Welcome to the stock market news with fundamental twist. One of the hot topics in the recent days was the longest stock market, bull market, ever. And whether that means that a bear market is around the corner and whether that means that you should sell stocks. In this video, we're going to discuss the bull market, will there be a bear market and what we know about it, what to do and go to three steps that will help you in answering the question whether you should sell your stocks or not. So let's start. This bull market started in 2009, March 6. Oh, I was buying in 2009 in 2010. Since then, the SAP 500 is up immensely. It was at 683 points. Yes, 683 points. And now it is at 2900 points. If something didn't happen, as I filmed this on Friday. So the questions are, when will this bull market end and should I sell stocks? Now, I have found a very, very interesting anecdote about market timing and when will this bull market end? And the author there compared it to potty training. So potty training, if you try it, if you work on it, if you train, all of us have been trained to do that. But there is usually a lot of shit around. And that's the same with market timing. Nobody can time the market. Nobody can know what will happen. If we go back to the stock market chart, we can see that stocks were expensive already three years ago. Everybody was scared about a recession, about market crash, bear market, whatever. And then stocks simply continued to go up. If we look at the economic expansion, it is the second longest in history. So even that, we never know how long can an economy grow. The Chinese economy has been growing for what, 26, 27 years now and is still growing strongly. However, when it comes to stock markets, this is a nice chart from Morningstar. Anything can happen. In 2009, there was a 50% decline. 2001, 44%. 1987, three months, the stock market declined. 30%, there were other declines, 1970s, 42%, 20%, 22%, 21% in the meantime, 59% in the 60s, and a few more of 20%. And then there was the big stock market decline of 83.4% in the great recession in the 1930s from the great stock market peak of 1929. Now, that peak of 1929 resembles this stock market peak. Everything was great in the stock market. The economy was doing extremely well. Everybody was confident about the future. There was this saying that stocks have reached an everlasting high plateau. Then the market crash and everything got destroyed. Will that happen again? That's highly, highly unlikely because the governments simply intervene into the markets. Trump is even thinking of lowering the capital gain tax, adjusting it for inflation to even more spur the markets and spur investing, because it's extremely important that the markets, asset prices, real estate prices are remain high and go higher because that's the way our financial world works. However, there are also risks that ratios around the world are extremely high. Interest rates are rising, which will be a burden for those with high debts. Then productivity is low. We have a trade war going on. There hasn't been a recession for 10 years, which means usually there will come a recession. Will it be a difficult recession? Will it be a mild recession? Nobody knows. Stock market valuations, price earnings ratios are very, very high. That's also something that historically hasn't led to positive returns over the next 10 years when the price earnings ratio is this high. There is so much financial engineering. Everything that's good now can revert in the future. What will happen? Nobody knows. Nobody knows what will happen. Those who tell you that they know what will happen are just praying for a break of luck. It's not like 2008 where a few of them knew what will happen with real estate. It's just praying that they will get a lucky break by nailing the next bull market or bear, nailing the next bear market. When it comes to investing, you simply cannot know what will happen. The only thing you can know is, okay, this can happen, positive, negative, and then see, okay, what will I do if the positive happens and how will I respond? How will my personal financial life be in case of the bad happening? Let's say that the SAP500 or stocks in general fall 25% in the next 12 months and then you think they will rebound and then they fall another 20%. Let's say in general in the next two years that stocks fall 40%. That's possible. I don't know whether it will happen. So the question is how will you react if that happens? And let's say that for the next seven, eight years inflation adjusted, SAP500 returns go nowhere. So fall 40% and then stay down. How will your financial well-being, your financial life, let's say you also lose a job in the meantime because there is a recession, your home value goes down and the mortgage stays where it is. And that's something people have to implement in their financial life decision. And that's the first answer you should give yourself when asking the being asked the question whether you should sell stocks. It's a personal thing. How will you handle the risk? What I have invested in stocks makes me happy about what I own. I like the businesses what I own. I like what will happen to them if there is a recession because then I know I'm happy if prices go down. Yes, if the stock market goes down, I'm happy because I can buy more. And that's a feeling you should have too about stocks. Then you don't care about anything else. If stock prices go down, good, I simply buy more, I get a better return in the long term, I end up richer. If stocks go up, continue to go up good, then I get my money, I can take some money out, I can do some things that I have ever dreamed in my life. And that's the attitude you should have when investing in stocks. Then investing in stocks is one thing. If we look at the SAP500, it has gone just up. However, not all markets went just up. Comparing the SAP500 and the Shanghai index in the last few months, eight months since January 1, 2018, the difference is 30 percentage points in return. The Shanghai index is down almost 20% while the SAP500 is up almost 10%. So not all markets just go up. There are even markets that go down, like the Chinese stock market. And remember China is growing at 6%, China has been expanding for 27 years, I believe. China is doing really, really good and has a lot of room to grow further. So that's something to keep in mind with what can happen with stock markets. And then I already mentioned it, but the next step is to make a big differentiation between investing in stocks, the stock market and the SAP500, and investing in businesses. When I look at my portfolio, I'm really happy, okay, this is a business I own. I look at the business return and I'm happy with that business return. If it is above 10% in the long term, if there is potential for that, I'm very, very happy with that business return. I don't know what will happen with the stock. If it goes up and my business return becomes smaller, I will sell the stock. If it goes down and my business return becomes bigger, I will buy more. And that's the only thing I can do. So to resume, you can't time the market. Nobody knows what will happen. The only thing you can do is look at your risk reward. And the best thing to do is to really know into what you are invested, look at the risk reward of your investments and be happy if those investments that you own that are great long-term investment, if those fall in price, you are happy because you can buy more. And that's all the answers you need when investing in stocks. Buy businesses, don't worry about ups and downs in the stock market. Take them as a reward, because if stocks go down, you get the dividends, you buy more. And in the long term, you get a higher return. The cheaper stocks are, the higher will be your return. A lot of people fail to grasp that because they are focused on the short term. However, that is what leads to long-term returns. If you like this attitude of buying businesses, buying business returns, buying on the cheap for the long term, please subscribe to my channel, as there will be plenty more of stock analysis, business analysis. And on Sunday, my next video will be about Brighthouse Financial, David Einhorn's second portfolio position, which looks like a cheap insurer. So a cheap, good business to buy. And I will analyze it in detail to see whether that is an addition for my and your portfolio. Thank you for watching. I'll see you in the next video. Please comment, add ideas, do you disagree? Do you agree? What's your take on this? See ya.