 Moving Average Masterclass, and this really is going to be something and a video that you will not really have heard this information about moving averages. Regardless of what you think you know about moving averages, this is not going to be your typical moving average video or webinar or anything like that. It truly is going to be, you know, a masterclass. So what we're going to be covering is understanding value, what our moving averages exactly mean reversion, why we're going to be using the 63126 and 253 moving averages, the moving average technical strategy in a sense that will be combining, I guess, the moving average technical strategy with our core strategy, which is supplying demand zones and really applying and showing you how to apply the moving averages to your trading view charts if you use trading view. So what I again want you to do, and I alluded to this at the beginning is really kind of just unlearned. So if you know anything about moving averages or you know nothing about moving averages, brilliant. If you do know anything about moving averages, I want you to really kind of just dismiss all of what the popular YouTubers and popular videos say about moving averages because the narrative I find is basically an echo chamber. So you will have one person will come up with what seems to be a, you know, I guess a plausible narrative about what move how to use moving averages and everyone's obviously entitled to their own opinions and strategies, etc. Not to say that they're, you know, right or wrong. But after this, I want you to compare what you learn in this video in this webinar live compare and compare that if you want to. Yeah, you don't have to. But if you want to with everybody else that's doing and trading moving averages and you'll see a massive difference is totally different. You're not going to see anything like this. So unlearn if you if you know about moving averages, yeah, and the narratives generally tend to be, you know, that moving averages are used to identify trends and confirm reversals. No, that's not what it is. Again, they will tell you popular, you know, videos and will tell you that, you know, if price is trending up, you know, moving averages tell you if prices are trending up down or sideways. Again, that's a very basic and simply simplistic way of looking at it. And I would say disregard that that moving averages confirms if the trend is emotional reversing again, disregard that unlearn that. And also the fourth is what you'll hear about, you know, the pros and the cons of a moving average is that it's a lagging indicator. Again, this is just, you know, stuff that people say an echo chamber. It sounds good, but it's because people don't actually truly understand what moving averages the the actual intention of what moving averages are. I want you to just unlearn and suspend what you kind of know about moving averages and for now and then make up your mind at the end of this video. So we first have to understand that value right determining value will determine where the trend is going right and value is not price and price is not determined by by the value. Yeah, so I'll say that again, the price is not determined value is not determined by price price is not determined by its value. So just because something is going higher or lower on a certain timeframe doesn't mean that that is its current value because things can be undervalued or they can be expensive. So as we typically look at, I guess, charts, we understand that, you know, when we can see that something is either a bargain in the past because prices went to the upside. And if prices can't go any higher and they come down, then that is generally what we would consider expensive right in, I guess, in the short time and it's more price based. We're looking at a price chart looking at basically where prices moved from there and moved away from there. And in between the expensive area and a bargain area is what we would call fair value 50% areas what was known as fair value and this is all covered in the supply and demand course. Yeah, but the term and value we need to look at and future value. We need to really kind of understand fundamental analysis and risk sentiment that for me is really the only way to determine or attempt to determine true value of any asset that you're buying right so for example stop fundamentals people look at revenues earnings returns and equity profit margins etc. In commodities, you know fundamentals supply and demand macroeconomic factors which are driven by risk on and risk off sentiment. Yeah. And in currency land, our fundamental analysis is driven by, you know, central bank monetary policies and government fiscal policies based on GDP inflation and interest rate cycles. Yeah, so it's not we're not just looking at price we're determining what current prices and we can look towards what potential future value may be and whether something is a bargain by looking at its fundamental analysis. Yeah, and then we go to a price chart. Everyone following so far, by the way, everyone following. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, simple stuff. Right. Now, what are moving averages really what are they really so the moving average is a simple technical analysis tool that smooths out price data by creating a constantly updated average price average price. So the average price or the average is taken over a specific time period like other 10 days 20 minutes 30 weeks, or any time that a trader chooses. Yeah. So we, you know, we're looking at average price and as I said before, where, you know, we were looking at price based. Fair, I guess, an average price, we're looking at highs and lows, what's the what's the average between a high and a low would be what is known as fair value on a price right now, the average price. Yeah, or mean is known as its is fair value has to be therefore moving average technical analysis indicators identify fair value on a price chart, but over a period of time. It is time based rather than price based in a sense that it obviously it looks at the price, but it looks at the fair value over a period of time and any time that the trader chooses so generally traders tend to you know put moving averages in all manner of time frames. And I'm going to tell you why in fact, in the method that I'm going to show you that doesn't make any sense at all really what the most powerful moving average periods are when I say powerful talking about the ones that really make make the most sense. So, again, just to recap, moving average indicators identify fair value on a price chart who wants to buy an expensive area. No one. Yeah, the price you generally want to buy in life in general if you go to a supermarket if you go to a car dealership if you're looking at buying a home. You want to literally at the bare minimum you want to buy at a fair value bargain is always the best price to buy at, but you want to buy normally at fair value. So, why use the 63126 and 253 moving average periods so if you guys have gone through a course generally what I used to used to use. You know, maybe about up until maybe about maybe six months ago was the common time periods right so you know you got the 1520 I used to use the 20 to 50 100 and 200 which is typically the the moving average periods that generally banded about either on YouTube on Instagram online and I was doing I can't remember exactly how I've managed to basically come about this but I guess it came over time and what you guys know is that we look at you know bank forecasts we look at analysts forecasts and one of the things I started looking at was you know the forecast so forecast would used to do you know they do like a one to three month six to 12 month and long term forecasts right for you know the dollar index or whatever it is. Yeah, like ing for example doing their forecasts and do the fourth quarter first quarter, second quarter third quarter fourth quarter and then I would also see certain time periods for example on on on trading view yeah and if you look at the bottom left hand side of the trading you'll see you know one day five day one month three months six months one year year to date. Yeah, and you'll see that type of timeframe right so it's it was a constant theme that kept coming up. And it comes up in trading right so you get your monthly you get a three monthly six month a year to date etc. So I thought to myself well. When it comes to fair value and we're always about looking for you know value right this is the whole point in supply and demand is identifying bargain potential bargain prices and where fair value is not thought to myself well. If a moving average, yeah, is an indicator that identifies where the mean is and where fair value potentially is where the average is. Why do we use 2030 50 100 and 200 day or period moving averages. What is the sense behind it is it just because and as I was saying to you guys that trading tend tends to be a bit of an echo chamber right once one person says something then all of a sudden everyone else is saying you know pretty much a similar thing. So one of the things that you know about trading is that you got you kind of don't have you can't do the things that everyone else does in order to you know make money right because hardly anyone does make money in trading consistently so you got to do something different or think different. So I applied and I thought to myself what if I apply the certain time periods that the banks use for example one month they tend to look at one month timeframe three month six month 12 month yeah timeframes and actually see if I can and see if there's a an average. Fair value price over that time period because then that would kind of match certain forecasts that you know we that we look at right from the from the from the financial institutions. So what I did was I found out those time periods. Sorry, I found out those time periods and having a little search as far as how many trading days there are. So we were in 2020 for example and they were 253 trading days. Yeah, 20 trading days in 2020 February has the lowest a March, June, July, October, December has the most 22 with an average of 21 per month so the average is 21 per month or 63 trading days per quarter. Obviously when we go into a trade a chart we don't have the weekends do we we just have literally five days and then we have a you know Sunday I guess Sunday evening to Friday evening right. So I thought to myself, let me apply just logically what you know the one month which is a 21 days three month quarter, which would be 63 six months which would be one to six day and then the yearly which would be to five free trading days and going back to the point I was making with regards to traders choosing their own time frames and periods and things like that. It only makes sense on a this only makes sense on a one day chart. Again, the question has to be asked is, why are you using a 50 period move an average on a 15 minute chart. What is the significance of the last 15 candles or the last 50 candles on a 15 minute time frame can anyone can anyone answer that question or four hour. What is the last 24 hour candles price action got to do with anything if you're using the 20 period moving average exactly no idea no idea it makes absolutely no sense. Just even in general, even if you're looking at it on a daily timeframe chart. Yeah, if you're looking at the 50 period. What is what why does 100 days why does 50 days what is the significance of 200 days what has that got to do with anything. And I think personally, it's what's known as round number bias. Yeah, there's a round number bias. And that's not to say that these these typical unusual moving averages. Yeah, don't work. I'm not saying that whether they don't work. I'm just saying, why are you using them. You have to really understand and indicate if you're going to use an indicator really understand its significance for you to really have trust and belief in that indicator right so if you're using a moving average. Most people don't even understand about average price and value. Yeah. So, there you go. You sometimes because then that builds belief that does build belief in what it is that you're trading. Right. I mean you can either use it from a statistical perspective so for example, even if you don't fully understand something. If statistically, you can see it working then brilliant you just go and use it right from an indicator perspective. And sometimes deeper thought needs to be had. And this is one of the things that I was that I kind of was was doing. So, for me, what makes sense to me if I'm trying to determine value, and in the, I guess in the spirit of understanding where fair value is because again, the point is at a bare minimum we want to buy we want to at least buy at fair value we want to buy anything in life at an expensive price. We want to buy at fair value or start buying, really a fair value. So, supply and demand, we use and we know that they are potential bargain areas, but then we can have the use of using a different method of measuring where potential value is via moving averages. And so, you know, the two indicators or the two moving average settings that generally people use are the simple moving average and the exponential moving average indicators, right. And I basically just said all right I'm going to use both of them because again, it's not a case of all right one is better than the other. How can it be if we're talking about just identifying where potentially fair value may be on a price chart. Yeah, so why not use both so this is the reason why, as you guys know already I do have both on a price chart. Yeah. I understand where those potential zones are and again the markets not perfect we're not saying that it's definitely going to bounce off of this one line. It's the same thing why people when you know people draw support and resistance as just one line how can you draw it as one line when price is more dynamic than that. Yeah, it's more of a zone you know that we have liquidity stop hunting we have so many different market participants how come, even if it does, you know, bounce accurately off of a certain level doesn't mean that you should draw support and resistance or supply and demand as just an accurate price line, right doesn't make any work. It makes sense in the guess in their world but it doesn't make any sense to me. Not anymore anyway when I was maybe six seven years ago when I was learning. You don't know better right. Now, an important point in in understanding moving averages is also understanding mean reversion. Yeah, so mean reversion is a theory using finance that suggests that asset prices eventually will revert to them to their medium or long term mean or average as we know fair value level. So in cases of mean reversion, the thought is that any price that strays far from the medium or long term norm will again return reverting to its understood state. Yeah, so any, you know, when you get price move away from its, its fair value, its monthly fair value, eventually, it tends to come back to that now nobody knows exactly when it's going to come back for example, but generally, prices will come back, or, you know, mean reversion back to its original, you know, it's understood state and in our case, price generally will come back to fair value I'm not saying that prices will reverse at every single fair value that doesn't make any sense because we have to understand what the value is at the time or potential value is at the time. But we understand that prices will come back to their fair value price at some point mean reversion. They always do. So moving averages, the moving average strategy. Now this is where I guess a lot of YouTubers do have it right. And it's just it's the simple thing right so it's not necessarily anything complex or anything like that right so you have a moving average technical strategy price trades above or below a moving average. Yeah, after being, you know, below it or above it so what that means is and I'll say again, surprise trades above a moving average after being below it or price trades below a moving average after being above it so in this case. We're looking at price trading above the moving average after being below it. Yeah, so this is the area right here. Can you guys see my cursor by the way. Can you guys see my cursor. Yep. So we're going to see so you see basically prices here prices go above it. Yeah. And then you've got obviously this is this is going to be our monthly moving average some monthly fair value. And then wait for a pullback, which is basically mean reversion to the moving average basically which is fair value. And then when price touches the moving average which is fair value look for an entry trigger that's basically what a moving average strategy is. So above that above price after being below it prices revert back to their fair value states and then you see that you know if it took price obviously over the past, you know, 21 candles and the daily timeframe chart that would be it's fair value and you're looking for that being fair value. Yeah. And you have to note that the first price touch is the higher probability trade. The more a moving average is touched, you know, or bought or traded, the more perceived value for the financial institutions diminish and it makes sense in life. Right. If you go to, again, a supermarket and you find a bargain and you think you know that I don't know soap for example, you know is maybe two pounds off. Yeah. Compared to everyone every other supermarket. It's an absolute bargain but if every other supermarket now starts lowering their price for soap in alignment with where you bought the bargain it no longer becomes a bargain anymore right. So understand that the financial institutions always want to buy at fair what they perceive as fair value as a bare minimum. Yeah, preferably a bargain of course we all want to buy a bargains, but the more times the level is touched is the more obvious it becomes to everyone else. Therefore, it's not a bargain anymore. It's because everyone else is buying at the same price because they can see the level. They can see the price. Yeah. Does that make sense to everyone? And what I'll do is I'll read Danny's comments that Danny heard. I heard somewhere that 200 looked at by large traders yet so it becomes self-fulfilling trade as people believe a reaction will occur potentially. Absolutely. And that's generally I think what happens in the trading world is that it does become a self-fulfilling prophecy like Fibonacci for example. Fibonacci the 61.8, the 32.8, 61.8 and 32.8% Fib levels right. It becomes self-fulfilling prophecy because everyone's now thinking okay pull back to that level with some sort of level of confluence where it's support or resistance and then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. But still again, why? Trust me Danny, I've searched the internet for the whys of the 200 period moving average and there isn't. Apart from exactly what you said, large traders or a large trader decided that it was probably back-tested and then it becomes law. It becomes a thing, an echo chamber. But does that mean that that is the best trade? As we know, we want to do things differently to how everyone else is doing it. This is the key. Because if everyone else is doing is trading the same way, we haven't got a chance. We do not stand a chance in the trading world. So the second example I wanted to show you by the way is here. So this is the monthly and this is the three monthly, the black line. So again, just to show you basically when price trade starts to trade above it. So we've got it right here. We've got the price starts to go above. Then when it pulls back into this zone, the first touch of that three month fair value and you see prices go to the upside. Not to say that that's the reason why prices went to the upside because no one knows about the fundamentals that is well whatever chart this is. I deliberately kept it that way just for simplicity. But also as well, I want to draw you back to the fact that the more touches the lower the probability and that's not to say that a second touch or a third touch won't work. That's just to say that the best touch, the first touch is always the one where you probably have the higher probability. If you're right about the long term fundamentals, therefore the long term trade. So we touched the first time on the monthly fair value average. And then the second time we touched wasn't so much of a bargain. Yes, price was bought here. But then when prices came a bit lower into the first touch of the three month, yeah, that's where we got a move higher. So remember, guys, we always want to understand value and maybe this wasn't seen as potential value. There were traders that wanted to get in the longer term traders wanted to get in on they were looking at price over the last three months and determined that in fact I do think prices are going to go higher. Yeah, but I want to get a bit more of a discount. I don't want to trade on the monthly. I want to look at the three monthly or the quarterly price and look at the fair value from there. And that for me is the first time I really want to buy. And again, nobody knows what is going on as far as what was going on fundamentally at this time. We just assumed that we knew the fundamentals we wanted to be buyers. And this is these are the opportunities to look for the first opportunities to look for buying or buy trades. So again, I alluded to this before combining moving averages with supply and demand zones. So we always need our fundamental analysis first. Yeah, fundamentals and risk sentiment always come first. So we can identify current or potential current and future value. So potential current value, meaning is price a bargain right now. If prices are bargain right now or wherever it is, then brilliant. Yeah, if it's not a bargain, where would it be a bargain and what is price likely to do in the future. Most of us know these things right again if we know, for example, a central one central bank is hiking rates and another one is cutting rates. Then we know potentially where value is going to go. The same thing with the country is in a recession and another one is in the, you know, expansion or boom phase of its economic cycle. It's obvious there's trade divergence is there. So fundamental analysis and risk sentiment analysis first to determine potential current and future value. Yeah, and that way obviously we can determine our trade direction and the potential trend. It doesn't occur because of a pin bar at a level of support or resistance. It doesn't occur because there was some sort of Elliott Wave count or any nonsense like that. It's determined by, you know, the fundamentals basically major money moving there, you know, allocate reallocating there, you know, whatever it is funds based off of macro economics, not chart analysis. Then we use supply and demand zones as areas of identifying where past value was. Yeah. To, because that's those are areas where prices were cheap right so higher highs higher lows, lower highs and lower lows are proven areas of, you know, the bargain prices or potential bargain prices and again that's all in, you know, the course. Not to go over here. And then what we want to do is, you know, obviously go long or short at those demand zones with the confluence of moving average fair value. Yeah. So our fair value, for example, the monthly fair value. So I'm going to go through a couple of examples, a few examples, and you can back to this and we can go through some live examples as well. I think we might do that at the end of this presentation. So again, in this example, right, if we had established that fundamentals were telling us that, you know, somewhere down here was an absolute bargain. Yeah. Let me actually let me get my, get my annotation. So let's say for example somewhere around here we have established that, you know, there's a bargain. Yeah. Yeah. We know that higher highs higher lows are potential areas of, of, of, of value. Yeah, where we want to be buyers. So we saw nice high low higher high right there we know that to be a fact that's a potential bargain area. Otherwise prices wouldn't have went higher. And then when prices come back down into this area, we also have an understand that there was at least a monthly fair value price as well in combination with that area. We saw it again here. Yeah. And we saw it again in and around here. So where we have price based value and fair value. We also have time based fair value when it comes to understanding value basically that's what we're looking for. Let me move on to the next screen. The next chart. Yeah. So this was big. This would be the three monthly chart or three monthly fair value. And again, what we saw, let's say for example prices come back or prices have gone above the moving average and we're looking for pullback into moving average fair value. Yeah, so that's a three month fair value. But what we didn't see was it come back into a demand zone. Yeah, so we want to we don't want to take those types of trades we want to have the confluence of the demand zone. But we did get an example here, but we made nice higher highs higher lows prices pulled back into an area where that was proven value because prices went to the upside. And we have a nice three monthly fair value confluence first touches are always the best, but our base is the is understanding the that we should be trading this in confluence with supply and demand zones. Yeah, this is the six monthly. So again, we had a nice cross above surprises were below. Yeah, prices crossed above took a while to come back, but we saw a nice zone. And by the way, this is the actual, this would be the actual zone as well. So that is dynamic, you know, support and resistance right there. That's what you'd be looking for within that zone. The prices came back to a demand zone came back into the six month or six month moving average. And that was some nice confluence there. And then we also have the yearly right so this is the 253 so again prices went above that area there and let me just get my drawing tool right here. Yeah, and then we've got prices go above there prices pulled back but not into any kind of demand zone. And then the next time prices come back into that yearly fair value combination was right there so it can be very powerful, very, very, very powerful. Yeah, very, there's a lot of confluence understanding why you should be buying as certain areas. Yeah. One second and I've got one more slides. Right. So this is basically everything combined. So again, walking through this and just walk through this with you. So, understand that we want the confluence of supply and demand first and then we're looking for the fair value. Right and you can see where prices started to come across above came back down into the monthly fair value, but we didn't have any kind of demand zone there so that wouldn't have been a trade prices make higher highs higher lows. Now prices cross above pretty much all of the major moving averages so you've got the three month, you've got the yearly which is the yellow you've got the green line which is the sixth month yeah surprises crossed above those the prices came back into the zone. You've got lots of confluence there. You had not only the sixth month yet the yearly but you also had the sixth month and that was the first time prices have come back into that zone. Nice buying opportunity within that demand zone. Lovely. Lovely, lovely, lovely. Anyone have any, any questions by the way. Anyone got any questions. No. Right. So, pretty much. Does everyone have the moving averages applied to their charts? Or does everyone actually even use the moving averages in the way that, you know, I do, I did have in the course. You do. Yeah, definitely. It's definitely worth having, you know, on a chart somewhere and if you're not too sure on how to apply the moving averages pretty much the old ones where we use like I mean you don't even need those ones anymore by the way Sam you can literally just do it this way now so because you know what as well trading view has, has updated their moving averages where you don't need that indicator that moving average indicator anymore. You don't really need it because you can actually do and I'll explain why you can do the you can do time specific moving averages. So what you want to do is go to indicators and strategies. Yeah, first of all, which is up here and then you want to basically put a few moving averages so just moving average and moving average exponential. Yeah, so put four of those and then four of these so you're going to put one monthly to 21 period you're going to put 63 period you're going to put a 126 period and you're going to put a 253 period. And then you're going to put for the moving average exponential pretty much the same thing so you put in four of the moving averages and then four of the exponential moving averages on there. Second thing you're going to do is you're going to go to the settings on each one. Yes top left hand side you'll see a settings tab go to the settings on each one. And then you're going to put a moving average what you're going to do is you're going to do indicator thing right which is the same as the chart. The length is going to be the 21 period. And in the source is going to be open high low close open high low close is just getting more of an average price that's all it is it's not necessarily the make or break all. I know on empty for for example you don't really have open high low close on now I think you only have like a open or close on there. But what you want to do is just even if you just do the close price that's fine. It's not it's not necessarily going to you know it's not make or break or anything like that. But the indicator timeframe as I was saying to Sam is that what a trading view did was they updated this because normally what would happen is is if you put a moving average on a price chart if you change the time frame then the you know the to maybe the four hour then the moving average would then take the four hour 21 period or 21 the last 20 21 four hour candles. Whereas if you do if you do indicator as the as the one day chart you want to select it as a one day chart matter of fact not necessarily the same as chart sorry you want to select it as the one day chart. Then no matter what time frame no matter what time frame you you're on it will always display the daily timeframe moving averages which is basically what's important because as I was saying what good is a 21 the last 21 candles on a four hour timeframe telling you it's not telling you anything it's just telling you what average prices over that period of time. What is significant is that you need to understand the actual time you know the time horizon that we're looking at. Yeah and why the monthly the three monthly the six monthly the yearly is actually important so you want to change that in fact to one day yeah length is 21 and source on trading view open high low close but on. Empty for doesn't really matter too much just do close and then for the for example the 21 period moving average I choose blue. And then you can choose your colors for each one so do the same thing for the MA and the EMA and when you go to the second MA and EMA which would be the 63 the three month period moving average then you want to change that to another color etc etc. So you know these are these were basically you know the steps also as well you do have the option and I do have them on my chart as well for the two year the five year and the 10 year fair value. Moving averages as well so those are long term moving averages. And you'd be surprised how accurate these can actually be when I say accurate I'm talking about just understanding you know from a fair value perspective you know that these can be actually quite worth watching in that sense yeah. So this is what it really should you know look like on a price chart where you have your monthly moving average three monthly moving average six monthly moving average. When you're looking to you know when you're looking to trade these moving averages try not to get caught up in the. I guess the accuracy of of price and moving averages and what I mean by that is that these are just fair value right this is just telling you where fair value is not telling you exactly where prices going to definitely reverse from even though you have examples of that you know on here. Yeah it's not going to tell you exactly where it is. Remember the you're supposed to determine value or potential value via your fundamentals and risk sentiment. Yeah. And then use you know the moving averages in confluence with for example supply and demand zones as to whether you want to get involved in that trade and it's just adding as confidence. So I give you know the most recent example on this chart would be the would be here right where you've got it looks like you've got a bit of a supply zone here. Yeah. I don't know how many times this had been touched on the Swiss Frank but you had a six monthly moving average prices came into that zone along with our supply zone. Nice trade. If that was a bargain for what the Swiss Frank right now you know the date being I think what is it the 27th today of February. You know you don't really want to be buying the Swiss Frank you know I mean at this point in time but that's where you know we are and that's that's what we're looking at and prices can go you know beyond those levels. Right doesn't mean that you know it's it's you know this strategy doesn't work and we're going to do a bit of I guess you know some some back testing as well. If you want to I can stay for another maybe 25 minutes and we can just go over you know whatever charts you want and just really kind of look at the you know the from a technical analysis perspective not necessarily from a fundamental perspective because if we're going back to maybe you know 20 30 years. Who knows what you know was going on then but what I want just want to show you want to show you the confidence of these of these of these moving averages and how they actually you know do you know tend to work out if you've got the fundamentals right. So with that being said. Yeah, that's that's pretty much. I think it comes to a close bring us. This presentation to a close. Yeah. So, I think just to have a bit of a recap. Oh, I think I was meant to delete this. Just as a recap. So we want to determine the potential value and future trends using fundamental analysis and resentment. Yeah, then use moving averages to identify time based fair value on a price chart. You know the time horizons we want to use at a one month, three months, six months and one year and then you can add the two year five year 10 year if you want, and then moving averages should be used in confidence with the daily or the weekly supply and demand zones. So that's basically what we are looking at. Any questions guys by the way, any questions or tell me give me your thoughts, give me your thoughts on on the on the presentation. It makes sense. Yeah, yeah, it does. It does and we're going to go over, we're going to go over some charts any charts you want I'm not going to cherry pick any charts. You know you can tell me what charts you want to look at and then we'll just go over, we'll spend next, you know maybe 20 minutes going over any any charts, but any of any thoughts. Yeah, I open in. Yeah, it is isn't it. It is I open in your own New Zealand. You're finding some logic to move in averages. Yes, and I'm telling you if you if you've got the time I'm saying that you should I'm not saying that you should do it. Yeah, but if you go to the most popular YouTube videos or go to any, you know, TikTok videos or whatever it is that use Instagram videos that I'm telling you they're going to give you a lot of the same nonsense. It's not actually matter of fact it's wrong of me to say it's not nonsense in a sense, but it's again it's the echo chamber right it's the echo chamber someone's, you know had a certain narrative of what they think moving averages are and how to trade moving averages and everybody has their opinion on moving averages. So I'll give you an example right so one of the one of the things. So one of the one of the things is as you go to unlearn it's like, you know, you, you know, moving averages use identify trends and confirm reversals, like we know that's nonsense that I don't care who you are I can prove it without a shadow of a doubt that is nonsense because price isn't driven by by by by technicals. Yes, there is technical buying going on and selling going on 100% but but value isn't driven by by the technicals price isn't driven by technicals. Yeah, and also as well if you think about it. If that is if that is a thing, let's say for example that is a thing right. Then how can you say that it's how can someone say that it's used and by the way this isn't this isn't the same video I'm not going to tell you which video it is by the way. So the same video that said that it's used to identify trends and confirm reversals is the same video that said that it's a lagging indicator. So please tell me how something can be used to identify trends but also be a lagging indicator. How can it identify the trend and be a lagging indicator. There you go. So, you know, tells you if price is trending up or down or sideways it doesn't tell you that. You know what I mean? It's telling you just an average price. It's just giving you the average price over a certain period. It doesn't tell you that it doesn't confirm if the trend is emotional reversing it does not do that. And you can see that without without actually even looking at a moving average. And it's because people don't understand what moving averages truly are telling you is because they don't they all they do is they focus totally on technicals and then what they do is they create a narrative based around technicals and as you can see on here. And again, there's no shade to anybody. There's no, you know, I'm not trying to disparage anyone. I'm not trying to talk down on anybody. I'm just saying that you're going to get an echo chamber when you go to YouTube because there's 50 period moving averages 20 period moving averages 200 period moving average if you see, you know, on here 250 and things like that. And that's all that generally, you know, the crowd tend to to use without really just understanding what is actually a moving average and why you really shouldn't even be using it on, you know, a 15 minute chart. You shouldn't be using a 30 minute chart or an hourly chart. What and again, I'll say this again, but what has the last 20 hourly candles. Yeah. Why is that significant? What is the last 50 hours of trading? Yeah, the fair value of that. Why is that significant? It's not just because price bounces off of it doesn't mean it's significant. So, yeah, there's some there's some very, you know, deep thought that needs to go behind this. And now you understand it. We can, you know, it gives the chart a lot more significance and you can use this by the way, you know, I trade ETFs, for example, I say trade ETFs and more just buy into ETFs. If you're one of those people that, you know, doing long term investing, it's a great, great confluence of understanding where value potentially is. If you're doing any kind of long term investing, because you can look back on maybe the yearly fair value and look at price over the past year, the 253 moving average and say, All right, prices coming down. But do you know what I know the value of this asset class, for example, the stock market or bonds or whatever currency pair and say, All right, and all commodity, for example, and say, All right, and oils come down to its annual fair value. Why not buy there or why not buy copper or whatever it is. So anyways, enough of the rent. So if you guys want to go into any charts, I think did someone mention Euro Euro New Zealand, why Euro New Zealand is random. But yeah, let's go into, let's go into some some charts, let's go into some charts, right. Euro New Zealand I'm going to have, let's go all the way back, let's go all the way back, let's go all the way back as far as we can. And just remember as well this isn't like, you know, a technical strategy fundamentals, we have no idea why we would have been buying or selling until maybe after the fact this is one of the things I've got a stress because I don't know what was going on with the Euro New Zealand back in 2002. Yeah, but obviously after the fact you saw that there should have been you know that there was definitely value around here, there was definitely a change right to be could see after the fact. Now, the point I'm trying to make is this is if we understood why we should be buying here, then what we're going to do is we're going to ignore moving averages to the other side, right. Correct. That's just the way that we would look at it. We wouldn't look at moving averages contrary to our position. If we understood what was where value truly was. So again, let's look at just moving average crosses right so we're looking at, you know, the 20 actually you know I'll break it down let's do. Let's just focus on for example the 21 period moving average said a monthly moving average. So prices crossed up. And again, we have no idea fundamentally but let's just say that wasn't a trade right or that was a trade right and we got it wrong. So prices are now moving down in the downtrend you're a trend follower, which I don't subscribe to. And then thing you want to do is do what look at that the first touch of the prices have crossed down. That was fair value to the downside. Again, prices crossed above prices came back down into their prices came just about nearly touched there and just about touched there. Prices crossed down prices reactive price crossed down and again remember just remember this that no idea what the fundamentals are saying when you see moving averages kind of doing something like this. And you got loads and loads of moving averages because because people are trying to take their direction from the moving average and trying to determine the trend from a moving average. It actually doesn't make any sense. Does it? Yeah, if prices are doing this. And we know why prices should be doing something like this. And the reason why prices are doing, you know, in a range is because of a few things, a couple of things. One could be the fact that you have two strong currencies or two weak currencies, you know, against each other. Yeah, that could be the reason for arranging market. The market is in agreement really between the value of that currency, commodity, etc. Right. So they're talking that, you know, this would be maybe what would be deemed an expensive price. And this was what would be deemed a cheap price. So when prices are in a range, it's because the market is saying that, let's say, for example, this is 10, and this is maybe seven. That that is the range of which we think all market participants think the value of that commodity, that asset, that currency, that exchange rate should be nobody's willing to buy above 10, and no one's willing to sell below seven. Yeah, as nothing to do with, okay, we're trying to predict the trend from, from, from, you know, from moving averages. That's the reason why people get put off of moving averages. Because they don't understand all the moving averages telling you is where fair value is. It's not trying to tell you where, you know, that that we're in a ranging market, you can see where you're in a ranging market. Yeah, it makes sense. Yeah, it does. Yeah, so let me just, you know, continue to go right so you can pretty much see. Again, who knows what I said there, we're between a bit of a brain between there and there. That was a bit of a strange level. And remember, I always say, if something's not clear, if something is not clear fundamentally, yeah, then just don't trade it. Yeah, if you've got, you know, fair value and it's looking at the past, you know, month's price. That's telling just fair value. It's not telling you where the trend is going to be. That's the reason why traders would probably, you know, buy or sell here and then possibly try and get short and get stopped out. And all of a sudden they're trying to sell here and they go, oh, it told me to sell here. But then, hold on, it's telling me to buy here. Oh, it's telling me to sell here and I get stopped out. It's like, no, no, no, no, no. I mean, determine value first and also as well, none of us know whether the monthly fair value, whether the three monthly fair value, whether the six monthly fair value, whether the yearly fair value is going to be the one that is going to reverse. That's what we need to definitely keep our eye on. But let's just, you know, for argument's sake, look at, you know, when the trend does start to appear, when you start to see the pullback. So here we go. Nice. So the trends appeared to the downside. And then that's where you get there and you get a second touch. And probably that might have been the three monthly up there. Here we go. So the first cross of that three monthly, which is a black line, you've got it here. Whoever would have thought, hey, the 63 period moving average would be something. Most people would do the 50 periods, you know, or the 100 period, whoever thought the one to, you know, six period moving average, it seems very random, right? But it's not. It's not. It's really not. So remember as well, again, the rules that once a level has been touched several times, it becomes starts becoming less of a bargain. So less of a bargain, less of a bargain. Yeah, you could have made money there. And when prices come back up to it, the next one is going to be right there. Yeah, so do your thing. So first touch, second touch is going to be around here as well. So nice. And then you have to expect something here. So then maybe there was a six monthly fair value zone here. Yeah, there we go. So there also as well, I just want to point out as well, just because prices break above that level, right or close above that level on a daily timeframe chart doesn't mean that the level has gone or that that that zone is no longer valid. Yeah, the reason why I say that is because what you may want to look at is the weekly. So I'm going to go to the week weekly chart. Now on a weekly chart, you can pretty much see the prices came inside that three months or six month fair value. And actually it did react. Remember, price is not perfect. If prices were reacting off of accurately off of all these zones and stuff like that, it would be like, you know, it'd be very analog. This is an imperfect market. But understand what you're buying. Yeah, if you understand that this is a bargain potentially. Yeah, and it's in alignment with, for example, nice weekly zone, which would have been around here. It'd have been a cell trade supply. There we are. Lower highs, lower lows. Touch there. Touch there. Lovely to the downside. Let me just clear this up as well. Yeah. Just because prices go above it doesn't mean that that's it. You know, it's game over. That's that's it. Again, we don't live in a in a perfect in a perfect world. It's just telling you where fair value is. And if anything above that would be considered what a potential. If you want to get short, it's a potential. What's the word potential potential potential. Stop hunt. Well, yeah, it could be bargain. That's it. Razzani. Yeah, it could be a potential bargain price. And what a stop hunts when you think about stop hunts, not to get sidetracked, but what a stop hunts, right? What a stop hunts. Stop hunts are the ultimate buying the ultimate bargain above a level spikes above a level. There we are. That's where the institutions were looking to short. That's where everyone else is looking to short stops them out. And that's it. Yeah, so it's it's if this is fair value. Remember, this is just a fair value zone. So between, can you see the way it says 119 where my cursor is so one, so 1.9952. So those zones, that's where fair value is the six month fair value is just because price goes above it doesn't mean it's over. If you're if you're also within a potential supply zone, it just means that that's fair value, but this whole area here is a level that we would have been interested in selling anyway. Yeah, because like I said, price isn't perfect. It's not perfect. Anyways, as we go forward and let me just let me just get back to I have to just go all the way back to here. I'm not going to go through the whole how many years is it bloody out 20 years, nearly 20 years, 19 years of price action. I forgot I'll do that. But just to go through it enough just so that you get an understanding, you know, of really where you want to be and I'll add the annual, the yearly one as well. So there we are. So look at that now. So look at the annual. How accurate was that. That was where we were before. Yes, it went past that for from a fair value perspective but right above it was that was the was the yearly fair value right there. Yeah. So again, none of us know, for example, look where the look where the look where this trend was. Right. So that trend was to the upside. So then what we want to do if let's say, for example, we were right about this trend and we were looking to get involved from a fundamental perspective. Yeah. First one we're looking at is the monthly fair value as soon as it crosses above comes back touches it but it really kind of crossed above there. So there we go. That is a nice buying opportunity. That would have been a nice demand zone. Right there. Demand with that. So bargain price plus potential fair value and then look what happens to the upside. But again, this is not being driven by technicals. This is more being driven by whatever was shifting price. Higher. If we understood this risk sentiment fundamental wise, monetary policy wise, then that is a nice buying opportunity. Yeah. Did we have any kind of three month period moving average? Oh, yeah, we did. Well, slightly. So we had prices cross above the three month the black line. We just get rid of. Let me just hide these one set. So this was the three month period moving average. Come down into that demand zone, but we had the three month fair value also within that zone as well, which added confluence. And then you can see where prices come up. Right. So again, fundamentals probably shifted. Look at that trend. Yeah, whatever shifted the fundamentals and cause price to come to the downside. Again, let's look at that. You can pretty much see where we had again, first cross there and that nice demand that you have to draw that properly. So you guys draw it properly. There we are. That would have been a supply zone right there within that what is known as the monthly fair value prices to the downside. We had the first cross of the three month the fair value within that again that supply zone. So this was what we saw. And we can go on and on and on and on if you wanted to. It's the same thing. I would definitely suggest that you guys do it and really understand and really get the confluence of this and you'll start to see fair value. You think so. Hmm. Really some really, really, really, really nice trades. But again, I must stress and must, must, must, must, must stress. It's about understanding future trends, potentially future trends value. Yes, the fundamental analysis, which determines value. And if we know our fundamental analysis. Yeah, then we should be able to predict potentially where the trends are. You know, the last trends I think I predicted was, was the Aussie, New Zealand and Canadian dollar against the Swiss Frank and the Japanese yen. And anyone who's been with me for a while, as known from last year, you know, Maxwell, Sam, you know, Vitaly, I'm sure you guys have known that I've been saying that for ages. And if you look at the, if you look at them right now, they're saying that from last year and look at the trends, look at those massive, massive trends that have been on the Aussie, Swiss, Aussie yen, New Zealand, Swiss, New Zealand yen and CAD, Swiss and CAD yen. Yeah, so then it's just the case of predicting the trend and then looking at where you've got supply and demand zones. And then also, yeah, thank you. Thank you, Jonathan. Yeah, credible predictions. It's not, it's not, it's, but it's not a prediction in that sense. And I thank you for it, but it's just, it's just understanding where money is going to go. You know what I mean? And once you get a few of the, you don't need a lot of trade ideas, you don't need to have lots and lots of trade ideas like every day. And this is where traders get so confused because they think they really think short term. What's going to happen today? What's going to happen this week? It's like, generally, nobody knows because short term timeframes, short term timeframe, it's going to maybe go into something else. They are really the realm of potentially accumulating. So you've got so many, you know, you've got trillions of dollars and pounds going into the market, right? So at any one point, yeah, there's, there's, there's accumulations going on this conflicting flows. So, you know, one bank might say, might think that this is, you know, a buyer, another one might say this is a sell some, you know, market makers might be hedging out of their positions. There's so much going on, right? In the short term that you don't really understand. But what you will see in the long term is where all of that positioning in the short term was actually headed. Yeah, so it's, it's not, you know, it's, it's the realm of the short term trader. It's very difficult to predict price day to day and even week to week. But, you know, if you understand future value where values more likely to go in the next month or two or three or four or five, yeah, based off of monetary policy, based off of, you know, GDP and business cycles or risk sentiment. It's, you know, it's just a case of filtering out the noise and buying in areas of selling in areas or going long going short in areas where you know, well, we never know 100% for sure where you, where you think, okay, this is maybe a decent probability trade. I think prices are going to go to the downside. Where do I want to look for a sell trade? Or I've seen a really good trade right here. Yeah, where we see lower highs, lower lows being made, prices come up to that three month fair value after it's been, you know, crossed boom, there we are. But in the weeks, because remember this is a daily chart in the weeks where prices were going higher. So this is one, two, three, four, five, maybe about two weeks of price action. Yeah, there would have been traders saying, if I was saying go, you know, buy the New Zealand dollar, for example, there would have been traders telling me in two weeks, Leon, you're wrong about the trade. Why is prices going higher? Yeah, it's not about what happens in one week, two weeks, three weeks. In fact, recently, it happened with the dollar. I'm not saying the dollar is going to, you know, go down, but it happened with the dollar with me, because I was saying the dollar was going to, you know, should strengthen against the euro, right? I was saying that from the last couple of weeks. But it didn't strengthen in the way that I was thinking that it was, maybe just back to the timing issue, but now you're starting to see the potential for the dollar, you know, price to increase and the euro to decrease, for example. So sometimes we're not always right, we're not always accurate, we're not trying to be right all the time. No worries, Rizzani. I'm nearly, I'm nearly wrapped up anyway, I've nearly finished, but yeah, take it easy. The point I'm trying to make is, is that have a longer term view on price. And this is what fair, this is what the moving averages are really kind of telling you is to have a longer term view on price. Yeah, and trading. And once you do, you'll understand, potentially, you know, you can pick your trades. Look at that nice trade there, up to the downside, etc. Anyways, guys, I would say definitely put set set these up on your charts, look for certain trades and even look for if you've been through, you know, if you've been trading for the past with me for the past, you know, six months a year or whatever it is three months just look at what you know about the fundamentals to be true. Yeah, because, you know, we can look back on the chart and look back on in time and say all right then well we should have been buying the Australian dollar against the New Zealand against the Swiss Frank or the Japanese yen for example, we knew that. And then look at all the trade setups to buy trade setups, along with fair value and see how many, you know, you could have entered, you know, I mean, and do the same thing with the CAD Swiss CAD yen and all the others. Anyways, guys, is there was there any questions, by the way?