 Huh Brandon you can see it. They there's two Excel files Well, I guess you know if we mute our microphone. I think it defaults to your screen, so Okay, I don't know what else to do in my and I'm sharing and it shows I'm sharing on my end Samira can you see it? Yeah, I can see that I can't really read it, but I can see I mean as you point I mean All right, I'm gonna I can zoom in Yes, I was able to see it when I clicked on it and clicked on you on the bottom Right-hand corner. All right, I'm gonna give you a clue here and then I think y'all can work it from there Can y'all see this now Brandy, can you see it? Yes, okay, this is a just a piece of this of the worksheet now I think it'll tell you what you need to do the the problem gave you the demand and I Someone asked the question. I forget who it was so I clarified that that that's total demand that's what I meant it to be and the company Charlie company gets a share of that and So if you take their share of the total demand that's how many units That they sold and then based on their price they get a revenue And then from the revenue they subtract their costs and they've got four types of costs there and Once you subtract all four of those costs you get a profit or a loss That's really all the spreadsheet is and then you just replicate that over five years using those growth factors that I gave you and That's really how it goes together does that make sense Yeah, what I'm saying for example that you know the first year their share was 20% and then I think there's a second I don't know where I can find the actual wording of the problem, but There's a growth rate that we predict. That's where we get the the simulation You know, we estimate that the growth is going to be between two numbers over each of those subsequent four years and So you just say well, what are my what's my share going to be in year two? Well, that's sharing year one plus the growth, right now you Are you using okay, so you got total demand you got five fifteen and twenty percent You know a range So are you using like a rand like function for Excel or are you doing everything in The CB well what what you do you go ahead and build your model in Excel just the way you normally would in Excel so Well shucks, I'll give you this much so you can see there I'm giving you this problem. So you get a little something for attending The the Demand had a growth factor and You put that percent growth in this cell And then you go to crystal ball and you define that assumption with whatever that distribution is and then that Demand up here You can see that. It's just equal to the original years demand And I use is number of ways you can calculate that I like to use one plus the percent So that would be the second year is a hundred and fifteen percent of the first year And you just propagate that on through year three four and five And then you do the same thing for the share the share has a growth that we simulate It's got a distribution. I don't remember what the at the distributions triangular uniform or normal Okay, but whatever that distribution is you You know set this up as you know to be to be Modeled to be simulated and then again that percent share is just the first year plus in the way I do it one plus the percent and You you just go across that way and if it's a decrease then it's one minus the percent That that's just about as simple as I can make it and what I like to do I like to break everything out Separately before I start summing up That that's the best way of doing it I've done this so many times that it you know at the bottom. I will go ahead and Just use one formula to add everything up But you can break that into pieces You could just you know total up your revenue Total up your cost and then subtract the cost and the revenue, you know one number to get the profit Might be a safer way to build it if you don't you know if you haven't built many of these models but anyway, you just define these things as a variable and Then you decide you define the bottom number here the profit as a forecast that's what you want to see you know you're studying and You do that for your whole model Then once you get it built together you just click on run and that's all all there is to it Yeah, that makes sense. So I guess what I was you know, I can't Seem to get My brain out of the long-handed Excel formulas So I was trying to figure out, you know using the CB to try and change those variables To me that I was imagining that I had to figure that out first and then put it into CB so I mean I I don't know I these these additional programs. They're all I mean now Figured out problem one with first of all, at least I think I have no idea. I'm pretty sure I did it right, but Yeah, coming up coming up with that with it. It's a it's a pretty unique program Well, it just it just can do this so quickly. I've built this thing manually Use using the Excel functions for random and then I created a triangular distribution and made a macro Which is not that hard to do So, you know, so I could build these kinds of things without using crystal ball except it takes a lot longer to do it manually and You know, my simple version doesn't have the fancy reports that crystal ball gives you The you know, I can produce a curve and I can produce all the data Manually but crystal ball makes it so much easier to do all this if you're going to do this thing over and over again And I guess, you know, our intent with this course is to introduce you to let you know these kind of tools around there So, you know, if your company most individuals can't afford to spend about a thousand bucks for crystal ball But a lot of companies can if they do this a lot But you know, just so when you get on the business world, you know I don't have to build everything from scratch and Excel Decision tree is out there pH status out there crystal ball is out there You know, all these these add-ins are out there somewhere free some few hundred bucks But if you do this a lot or you have a lot of people doing it that you know, it makes sense for the company to buy that add-in and That's really the sense, but you can do this. I've done this this problem step-by-step just using Excel functions Is you can do it. It's just a lot of work Right. I think that was my problem trying to disconnect and figure out where Where Excel stops And crystal ball takes over, you know, for me, that's just it's been very confusing and and taxing on the brain In the little time that I actually do have to do any kind of Yeah, I can understand that and it um I hear you. I know what it's like to work a full-time job and do this if y'all, you know If you look at just let me look at this other example that's in that comes with crystal ball This is a simple simple simple, you know model there again. It's just the rental times the rent times the monthly expenses and They call them assumptions. I call them variables and you can see there the first one is a A uniform distribution with a min and a max And this one is a normal distribution with a mean and standard deviation And of course that's the forecast and all you need to do is just click start Let me run it again And of course it this one populates 16 zillion graphs out there Whoops that's running mine. I'm sorry. It just ran mine. You didn't see all these I'll be doggone. I forgot it It runs, you know when when you've got I've got two two instances of um Excel crystal ball out there and crystal ball doesn't know that so when you click run it runs every active window That's why we got all those other charts popping up there But this is the I think this is the one for this little simple model And it gives you a histogram. It ran 1000 trials. You can set the number of trials right there and um This is the the histogram of you know, which is a normal distribution since the the major Expense item was normally distributed then it would make sense that the output is going to pretty well parallel that that variable and it shows it goes from Losing $2,000 to earning about $7,500 And you can look at statistics Which you know shows you how many trials and it shows the mean out of all those trials Medium and mode you don't need all those things But it gives you a lot of information there and with a standard error down here if you remember standard errors With a standard error you can calculate a confidence interval If you you know your boss wants to know what what is the confidence interval around this mean You just take the standard error and multiply it times the critical value of t or z. This would be z and For alpha over two and that would give you the confidence interval around that Let me go back here to this chart and to answer some of these questions The the way I like to remember it If I'm asking a left tail question I put whatever value I'm interested in in the left tail and if you remember the the chart I I posted earlier in the course less than or equal or less than points to the left so that would be Uh, zero if we were interested, what's the probability? I would make zero money Just put zero in there and click enter And it shows there's a 91 chance. I'm going to break even On this model And you can also just drag these pointers So I could drag it to zero and get about the same thing If I want to know what's the likelihood that I'll make more than 4,000 You got it then just click enter It shows that Um I did it backwards again But anyway, it shows you that there's a 70s 8 chance you'll make less than 4,000 So that would be a 22 chance you'll make more than 4,000 And and it gives you a graphic there and you can just use these pointers drag it there and The it there's about a 51 chance it'll be between $1100 and $4,000 So you can answer a lot of those questions just by either keying into these areas or dragging the pointers to um As I wanted and you can drag a lot of different ways there, but Let me try and 80 percent. There's roughly 80 percent So there'll be an 80 percent chance it'd be between 300 and $5,000 I'm dragging it back and forth if you're asked What's the chance it'll be between 500 And 6,000 Key it in that way and you'll get the exact answer. There's a 81 chance it'll be between that range Remember those old Normal distribution problems, you know when we're doing hypothesis tests. That's really all this is doing for you It it um, but it gives you a quick way to answer these questions The other thing you can Let's see if I can find it on here Is it up there? I clicked out of crystal ball women Where are the views? I don't use crystal ball. There it is Is that gonna work? Well, I'm clicking the wrong buttons here I don't do this enough There's a way you can you can create a sensitivity chart and for some reason it's not coming up This is a lot like spss. I'm trying to remember There it is so many other screen I don't know what spss is spss is a statistical Software that is used by a lot of people I used it in my doctor program IBM bought them about three years ago and they've really started adding on a lot of tools when I use sps It didn't have these Monte Carlo simulations built in but now you can you can do all this stuff In in spss and it's actually cheaper by a long shot than buying crystal ball You can buy an annual subscription sps for about 80 bucks Versus I think this is not a question. Pardon I'm sorry. I have a question my kids were screaming and I was yelling at them. Okay. Are we supposed to do this? for the homework This part right here Well, what what you would do is You know once you build your model you run it And you will get for both both, you know the problem one and problem two You run it and you will get a histogram like this one You run it again And of course see it's running it's running all these histograms for the second model Remember in the second model you've got You know, you'll have each of the five years And here you can see the histogram for year two your three your four and your five And there's the histogram for the cumulative and I think there's there's there's a question about what happens in year two And then there's a question about you know, how much money do we make in the cumulative? And so you would use that particular histogram To you know answer the questions um So you get a little speak sneak so that The those Assumptions or variables are created per year Yeah Okay, so that's how you come up with the multiple histograms Or instead of going like straight across you created an individual Assumptions for each of those with the same um Characteristics or you know plus or minus values, correct exactly