 The Tiger, technician hour. With your host, Basil Chapman, call now, toll-free at 1-877-927-6648. Good morning everyone, Basil Chapman here on this Thursday, the 7th of September now. We're well into September and so far September is looking a little bit ugly in the market. The Dow is down 6 at 34,437. It tried to rally earlier on. It was actually up with the 34,524 level. So let me just talk about this. There's a technique that I developed years ago. It's called the Chapman Wave Roman Candle. It can be red, it can be green. It could happen right at the top, which is very important. It happened the month of October. I think it was 2007, which gave a real good clue the following month, what was happening to the general market, because this is the rule of thumb, that if it takes out, right here, the long wick at the bottom. So the actual candle has to look like this. It has to have a long wick, has to open, and then make just a fraction. It doesn't have to, but usually you have the little tiny wick that you like the candle. And then there's a sharp plunge, but it closes halfway to three quarters of a way from the bottom. In this particular case, this is the perfect red Roman candle. It can be green upside down. We had one just the other day. He has an upside down one, a red reverse or inverted Chapman Wave Roman Candle and exactly what we were talking about within two days if it closes sharply underneath the low. In this case, I said if there is a trade for 60 minutes or more below the halfway marker, and that is this halfway marker of 34,380, and we're at 34,437 right now, there's a real good chance we're going to test the low of yesterday, maybe even take it out. But if there is a close above the high of yesterday, and I did see just a little emoticum of strength coming to the Dow, I wasn't sure about the other indices, if there is a close above it, that's actually really positive because it stalls the downside move because in the Chapman Wave methodology of the dreaded age, oh, I said it, now I've got to go there, see if I can find it. Okay, Mike. Oh, no, no, no, what am I doing? No, no, no, what does that say? Just click out of it. Okay. I just don't want to play games yesterday. Out of the blue, everything stole that and restart. Oh, it's doing the same thing now. No, please don't. All right, so I can't do that. This particular point, I thought I'd be able to show you this particular chart. Oh, and then I clicked again. Larry and I, we got this technical problem every once in a while, it just says, okay, close the program. At least in this particular one, it saves everything. This is Snagit. Fabulous. It just saves everything you did. I never have a, oh, I shouldn't talk about this. Let's just see what happens. Close program, close program. Try to get it back and let's see if this works. Hold tight, folks. This is where we're coming to. This is where, oh, wrong, wrong chart. Oh, no, no. Come on. Oh, now I've got to do something. Outlook Express, add an account. I don't want to add anything. Just get me out of this. Good. Okay, try it again. Here we go. One, two, three. Click. Let us pray. Okay, we're coming up to whatever. Okay, in the meantime, let me just say that the S&P is down 29. The S&P is much weaker. There it is. Okay. So this is what I wanted to show you. As I say, Snagit Fabulous. In Trade Station, when I have to shut down suddenly, I lose data if I haven't been saving. So why am I, oh, in this jetted H pattern, the lowercase H, what happens is, look, this is a peak A and then it fails. This is a peak A and it fails. This is the H pattern. This is this sharp move down and then an arch formation. Fading at a peak A or a B, if it rolls over very quickly, takes out that left-side low, that is where you're looking at some serious damage as possible. But when it becomes a larger one, it says that maybe it takes a little more time now and other things are going on because there was enough strength to make a large arch formation. But normally, the third bar of the H pattern is the one that really extends down. So that was one, two, that was yesterday. Very often when that comes down very sharply, the fourth candle just plunges to the left-side low. That's why I'm saying this is really important. Look, we saved the day so far, not even an hour into the trading day by rallying above the halfway marker of the long wick at the bottom. So that's a good sign. Now that there's up seven, just trying to have a bit of a bounce. All right. So I got that out of the way. Now let me go back to the whole story here. Within the context of the Dow itself, I'm still saying, even though it was much weaker in the last rally where the NDX rally rotted much stronger, the S&P was much stronger, I think the mix of the Dow at this particular point, until we get the JP Morgan's, the financial sector of the Dow, look at this holding very tight and very key support here on the left side. You've got the Doji candle, it's at $144.55, down $0.40. That's JP Morgan, look at the XLF. And the reason why I mention this is because within the Dow, the financials, God, why is it that every day during the show, I was like Dave White used to do that as well. I don't know what it is. Anyway, so what we're looking at here, you've gone in the XLF to the arch formation and a sort of stalling. This is the day there should be a big down day and so far it's holding quite nicely, just down $0.14 and $0.3419. So as I'm looking at the Dow, kind of saved the day. But what I am saying is that when we finally get the financials really on track and moving to higher highs and higher lows on a weekly basis, that's where I think we really start to see the Dow lead and start to move very sharply higher. At this particular point, I'm watching it and I'm saying the mix of the Dow so far has some qualities that I really like, but there are enough stocks that say choppy, choppy, choppy at this particular point. That's what we've got, choppy, choppy, choppy. So here we go. S&P, I did that, I did the Q, let me show you something in the gold. The gold now is down one, but the nine-period moving average has crossed negative. Now, that should be all day. So if by the end of the day it flips back to unchanged, in other words, that S disappears, then what we're looking at is a situation where there's still internal strength. At this point, if it turns S, if the nine-period moving average goes to a sell, just the nine-period moving average, that MACD holding up is going to probably get very close to turning negative. The stochastic is already at 60% very weak at a good weaker, so is the on-balance volume. So I'm watching this very closely for gold because it's holding very nicely. When you think about what the dollar has done and what the gold is doing, you have to admire it, you have to say, hey, gold, bravo, bravo, bravo. You've held very nicely so far, but can you keep doing that? Because the dollar will get a little tired at a certain point, it's getting close to an extended level. Let me just do that, DXY, let me show you what I mean. Look, there's no volume here because this is an index, but the UUP, which has finally got out of the 28s and gone to the 29, look, that on-balance volume is holding very nicely there, but it's just starting to get to an over-port level which says we could be pulling back. Remember, we're all along the dollar. I'll be back in a moment, dials out 24 SPs down, 27. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN, Educating Investors. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks and commodities, subscribe to the Opening Call newsletter at TFNN.com. The Opening Call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. Get the Opening Call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com, Educating Investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. 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There's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Toll Free at 1-877-927-6648 Internationally at 727-873-7618 Folks, I'm back and I'm just... This is what I showed earlier on. This is the e-mini, the one-minute e-mini. It had a good rally to peak C1, C2, in other words it just missed making their D, and then it made the arch formation. This is the pattern that we were looking at. When I did my webinar a few weeks ago, I said in the next month or so, we've got to be very observant of this arch formation because the dreaded H is a pattern when you're going down, which I expected to be very choppy during September. That's what you've got to... Even here on the one-minute chart, look how it went down in the arch formation. I drew in a little X there to say that would be the target and missed it by one bar, one-minute bar, and by about a point. So now we're making the second arch. The lowercase H can become a lowercase M formation, and we've just got to see that 44-34 holes on any pullback from here. We're at 44-39. So a couple of things I want you to just go through. A number of people have said to me, the dollar is absolutely imperative, and that's one of the reasons why we're in this kind of what I call a cell mode in the daily. I haven't yet had any indication that the weekly has changed, even a cell signal yet in any of the indices. But most importantly, what I am looking at here is that the UUP that night, let me just show you this because some of you might not have seen it before. I used something called the 914 crossover, and look at the dollar. Pullback sharpening, what I've been talking about for quite some time is that as long as that nine is strongly above the 14, whatever instrument you're following, it has to be really bad news to tank it and get that green to turn pink by going under the 14-period moving average. And so far, we've broken to new recovery highs, and that's important. If you're looking at a gold, of course, it's just happened to gold. Gold went pink, that's negative, then it went green for just a very brief moment, and then it went back today. It's back to pink, but the day is young. Look at silver. It today has gone pink. It had a fantastic move from here to here. I mean, almost two points, maybe even over two points, and now it's pulling back. That gray line is the price itself that we're following. Look at the TLT. The TLT three days ago flipped to negative. It went for one day green. Here it went for a few days green, and then it flipped it. The majority of selling pressure in the bonds has been constantly to the downside with just very brief moments to the upside. And I think if you put the whole thing together, let's go to the HGX. This is the Philadelphia Housing Index. Look at this, pink, big rally. I don't know where that rally came from. Today it's down only 27 cents at 544. What is it saying that there's some kind of a rotation going on? I mentioned this yesterday. This is one of the most unusual market scenarios that we've seen in, I mean, just in ages and ages. Let me explain why. Look, you've got the dollar screaming to the upside, and yet gold is holding well. And normally when the bonds are rallying and yields are coming down, historically you've seen a pretty good rally with the market saying, oh, but yields are down, let's rally. So you've got the yields. Let's go to the TNX. This is the tenure screaming up to the 43s. It's at 42.88 right now. 43s is where this double top resistance has been for a long time. And yet you've got, look at this, tall brothers down today by 15 cents still within points of its all time high. So this is what I'm saying. The normality, and I'd say this maybe about six or eight months ago. Do I see it? Is it in front of me? There it is. Okay. Bondi, Crudi, Dolly, Goldi, Vixi. So if you want to go through these five icons right here, bonds, the relationship of bonds to other things hasn't quite worked at this particular point. The relationship is not there. I think it's going to be there. I think the home builders are going to be coming down. I think that the area of construction should be pulling back. Haven't got it yet. So that's Bondi. That's bonds. Crudi, Crud Oil. So look at this. Yes, Crud Oil. Beautiful cup formation. It's got until, is that a September or October? It's got until the week of October. There's six to try to get to the left side high. There's a continuous contract. I don't like to print the price because the prices always change because it gets smoothed out. But on the week of the 11th of November, it hit 9156. And here we are, 87, 37. It might sound like, oh, it's only four points away. Those are big points right now. It's going to be a little tough to get there right now unless something dramatic happens, right? But Crud Oil running like this should have sent, what it has sent, the IYT. That is the transport index down very sharply. But you've got a federal express. Surely it should have just not federal express for a loop. No, federal express at 255 is within 20 points, maybe less than 20 points of its most recent high. So that relationship should be there, but it's not UPS, United Parcel Service. Huge move now. This is the relationship. You can see United Parcel Service in shipping. Wow, look at that dreaded H potential in the monthly chart. It's already failed in the weekly chart. It's got a much bigger arch formation from a peak E right there and a peak G in the daily. So this is telling you that there is a relationship. But I'm saying that it's unconventional. So we had the dollar and look at this. Here's the dollar, DXY. Look at that. Just a sideways move, actually. This is sideways in a rectangle formation going to the top of the range. But wait a minute, EUR, USD, look what happened to this. A plop right underneath the Chapman Wave inside track, propellant zone, it's becoming a repellant zone. And look what happened here. Look at this beautiful left side, right side price, tie match of that peak D, three doji top, right there on the 18th of July at 1.1717. So this is going to be very important because look at the USDJPY. Keep getting a notification here. I don't know if that's a notification from me. Oh, no. All right. And look at this. It's right there in a G slash C in the upper nine-period moving average, fabulous on the daily. Weekly, it did this beautiful left side, right side price, tie match. The next one is going to the high of 131.945, made the week of the 21st of October. Remember the October lows of last year in the market. So it's the Chapman Wave. Large arch formation in the monthly chart, which says if you make higher highs and higher lows from that flag bow high, you can go all the way to just under right on or just above the previous high. I'll be back. That was down 55. Currencies, commodities, and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex report. Teddy Kegstad breaks down the forex markets every Monday using his 30 plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, forex, stocks, and options. 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So Apple was holding really well, but there was, I've made this a dashed line because I have other even more important trend lines that I followed, but I'll make this, I'll put this back into the red right here so that you can see this weekly chart making red right there, pink making full, not dashed. And now you can see that within the context of channels, look at this beautiful channel that Apple had from the 124.17 Law of the Week of the Six of Feb comes all the way up and then it stops at a doji candle right there and that was at 200, no, 198.29 and that was in July, that was the week of the 21st and then there was an ugly candle. Now what normally happens with an ugly candle is that the test of the acceleration to the downside is if there is no inside bar, in other words a higher low, but a lower high and kind of trading in the lower half, instead it just plunged to the downside for two bars, two weeks, had a very strong two-week rally and now it's almost given that back. So Apple is the one I was looking at and I said from all the technical indicators that I'm looking at, this might be one of the seven darlings, might be one of the first to show tremendous strength quickly changing to weakness. It hasn't happened yet because the green, the nine-period moving average, let me just go over here and I'll show you your way to see a little bit better, let's see go here, Apple, AAPL, you'll see the daily chart, it went green and then it went green, then it's finally turned around, it was green, look at this, this is a daily chart, Apple from the 6th of March at 153 didn't turn pink until right here, so you can go to the actual bar which is at 181, 181, but it actually hit the 198 level, so and then now it's turned pink, stayed pink, all of a sudden for a couple of days it goes green on the 10th of, say the 30th of August and now it's still green, so let's go to the weekly chart and see what's happening, nothing, still green but you've got your M-shaped pattern here, you've got a little mini M-shaped there and now both the 14-period moving averages turned down together with the green 9-period moving average which says on a weekly basis there's a really good chance that Apple is going to turn pink and that says one of your bellwethers, one of your key major stocks in the market is starting to fail, but let's just do this, let's go to, let's go back to the daily, let's go to Microsoft, another one of those bellwethers stocks major, making lower highs and lower, look much lower than the previous side back in July, up near the 360 level and now we're at 330 down 2.15, the green is still green, the price of Microsoft, this is the intraday chart, is turning down but look what happened, so that was the 7th, that was the 6th, so these are the daily bars, right, so this daily bar hasn't crossed negative yet, look at Goog, hasn't turned negative yet, look at Meta, actually turned up two days ago and today it's up 360, 3068 cents, 303, so that's what I'm saying, that this is a market that if you are in particular stocks, you could be saying to yourself well I don't know what everybody's making a fuss about, but I can just tell you this, that we're getting this roll over and this roll over is saying, let me just show you something else, even you can go from multi charts to one minute charts like this and look how these dreaded H, I just said to you, the lowercase H is going to a lowercase M, I didn't have time to do it but look at the symmetry between this pullback, the last pullback, this one here and we've actually made new lows on the day to right there, that's the low right, right there, oops that's not the low, this is the low, right here and let's see what happens, click so these are techniques in my webinars, this is what I discuss a lot, I mean it looks so complicated but it's really very simple, but easy doesn't mean it's an easy trade easy just says the technique might be easy, following it sometimes takes a lot of tenacity, so here we are green here we are, I would have put an X in I didn't have time, X would have been there, it missed the X by two bars, two one-minute bars and now it's having a nice pop to the upside, it went to a new low right there, right, so in that oh wait, I didn't do this correctly, I didn't want to overlap, this should have been there, to that low right there right there, that should have been to that, oh then the X would have been there, so it actually came in two bars early, right, so now it's having a little bit of a balance and I have to tell you from what I'm looking at here, I see just rotational residual strength going in and out of some stocks, stocks that might or might not be important to the general market but are important to the indices that you might be following, so with that said, let me just go on to something else in the den, I did a little says NG, let me just look at NG, this is NG is the, yeah, this is the NG is the natural gas continuous contract, so you see this low right here, today's low of 2.6, 2.500, but if you look at this rectangle formation, look how long we've been doing this rectangle and my contention is that natural gas is going to be building some upside spike potential and I don't, Louis Anamata, I can't remember her name right now, really good technical analyst from some time ago, I think she's around, Yamamata, so what we're looking at, she used to say the longer the base, the higher the space, something like that, but in other words, the longer you take time to be, as Tom would say, building cores, the longer you're taking the sideways action, but look at the MACD, how strong it's been, and the price has been absolutely, it ignored it, it's just pathetic, because it's stochastic holding okay, the price is pathetic, this is a weekly chart, at some point you will get a sudden pullback, maybe even a lower low, just a one sharp, lower low, just to tell everybody, okay, you thought you could time this, watch me, and it takes out every single long position that is being patient all the way for months and then it starts to move up, so I see natural gas looking at six weeks, maybe eight weeks, as once on a weekly basis it takes out, it closes above the high of, this is a continuous contract, so the price may change, the high of the 11th of August, my price is 3.113 right now, the most it starts to go, I think it starts to see a rally that has some way to the ups and downs, I'll be back Gold Report As a precious metal, gold is still king, it continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the US futures market and the Shanghai Gold Exchange The Gold Report Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly Gold Report every Monday morning for subscribers, consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, The Dollar, Bonds, the South African RAND as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy sell recommendations The Gold Report New subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee you have nothing to risk subscribe to Tom O'Brien's Gold Report newsletter now at TFNN.com Are you ready to take your trading to the next level? 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Market Insights. using the Dow daily chart and what I'd said was for a long period instead of drawing in little rectangles saying that yazza top yazza top it started back in November of 2022 I said dark news cloud cloud cover and then over the months I said you know what this uh Dow 35 no it was a 35 782 what was it 30 sorry 34 712 that high of the 13th of of December that is that's the dark news cloud it just sits there and sits there and it's penetrating the market but moment we break out of it it says just for a moment we can have some relief or we got relief but on the 26th of July and it's one of the reasons why we went short the very day of the high of the Dow Hyatt August the 1st is because I said we're starting to get this dark news cloud cover again that if we go back into the range it says it hasn't dissipated that cloud cover is going to be sitting there for a little while so I'm just saying to you that this particular instance with the arch formation in the daily chart this is a little savior because it could look really really ugly for 60 minutes we start to trade in the 34,000 I think 380 level here we are 34,493 up 50 let me just check to see a little ping ping oh we've got Garo in Newport Beach Garo how are you I'm very good sir how about you I'm very good sir you'd like to look at whoops I typed in the wrong place square yeah okay sq is the symbol block is the name and what did you do because it actually held very nicely using your parabolic saw and now it's given a chunk back today yes sir yes sir you you told me that day a few days ago when I called you you just draw a rectangular there and you told me that this is struggling you cannot go any higher than that and how right you were I was long I was long for a while a few days and then this morning I shorted it at five o'clock California time your time was eight o'clock in the morning I showed it at 57 14 my question is that sir now the position of the dots are reversed now you have one dot at the top but how far do you think that that will go lower just approximately all right now as I see it right now the support that was and this is what we discussed the support on the 18th of August was at 54.73 the way I'm looking at it right now the weekly the daily the weekly and even the monthly are suggesting very strongly that there's a chance that if it closes under 54 it could quickly hit 52 I actually look at it more negatively than positively so that's kind of how I'm looking at it right now and it was fascinating I just want to explain to the listeners Garo looks at this particular stock using a technique that is used for years and years and years and it's really the parabolic sar is the name of it and you can see the little dots I've actually kept this on my chart my daily chart for years because you've mentioned it and I've I used to use it then I didn't use it then I do so I've kept it there and I have to tell you when it works it is fantastic it can not work of course not everything's perfect but when it does work and not only that the technique that it uses to get look one one down day and it's already got the dot it didn't have the dot when you started because you had to wait for the market to open but then the dots showed up and you said whoo right yes yes that is true I learned that sort parabolic years ago I would say from you and that was about almost 15 or 20 years ago a long time ago yes and it really is it is a really wonderful tool but I like the way that you use it it's not just having a tool you're using it very methodically use it you know your parameters now I must say there's a little bit of strength still on the MACD not the stochastic but the MACD but that 9P remember I said to you the 9 period moving average hasn't even been able to get close to the 14 period moving average to me that's a big negative so I'm just going to say to you be careful because there could be balances but why didn't you take a little time to say where's your stop and then use your technique because my suggestion to you is that there's a good chance that I might be wrong but tomorrow the dot appears again saying it's continuing in this cell signal base on the SAR so mine's in a cell mode and I'm very worried this this particular pattern has the habit of taking out the left side low and then doubling the distance between the horizontal base and the height that it went to to the downside that says that 52 level is going to be gotta watch that closely but I you're in the right position right now yes sir you're absolutely right MACD is a little bit of a problem MACD is still has work to do but the stochastic already rolled down absolutely I do my daily trade daily the trade Mr. Bezos I showed it at 57 15 and I got at about 55 50 and I showed the 500 shares very early in the morning and I'm already up I'm ready I'm waiting for the next I usually buy a cell on my 30 30 minute so you might think I do that pre pre-market start the charging system on 30 minutes and that's where I buy and sell usually around five in the morning which is your 8 8 30 in the morning that time but I got thank you sir and I hope I'll talk to you again appreciate thank you thank you thank you sir bye bye bye bye newsletter at tfnn.com the opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman wave the Chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys and stock prices get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman and your inbox every day first time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up tfnn.com educating investors tfnn has just launched their new trading room the Tiger's Den hosted at discord tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours and now 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of weeks ago i talked about the tides the chart patterns and trends so the tide at this point is going out so even that very strong single leg to the upside a move that we just saw in the one minute chart that could be a rip tide you've got to be careful because the major trend i hope i can find the chart but look one steady tidal rhythms these are waves two larger but uneven waves three rip tides four 100 footers think nasa ray oh i love those waves five overlapping waves to look at six flat just a flat market all right rough waters number seven now let me just see if i can even find this chart here um did i put it in i thought i did did i did i did i did i did i not yeah look at this identify the trend and then trade with the trend and we have a we have a position now that's on the long side brand new did it today we were waiting waiting waiting i did it because i think it's under the radar maybe but mostly look when the when the price is going up this is wrong it's shorting all the way up yes if you very quick and nimble absolutely you can do it buying on the way down that's wrong this doesn't this even look right the tide is going up so you're trading up the tide is going down you trade down so that's what i wanted to show yeah i've got the mac d's the casting and all the stuff but really look at the price higher highs higher lows higher higher lower highs lower lows that's the trend that's what you've got to stick with so with that said as i'm about to wrap up i'm not able to do the next hour um i want you to just mention that uh on the on the day the dowels showing some leadership role now look at the single leg a it's starting to fail gotta be careful gotta be simple thank you again for the great lead and so close down i was wondering for us today as the six of us should be in the car next okay this is hell to do