 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network The UEFA Champions League final is coming up on Saturday between Man City and Inter We're gonna break down that match for today Let you know where you can find value in the betting markets over at Fandall Sportsbook by talking to Austin cast getting his read on that Game then we'll talk some baseball later on for tonight This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire Joined here as mentioned by Austin Cass You can check them out on Twitter at Austin Cass and find his work over at number fire comm and Austin EPL season is wrapped up the UCL about to be wrapped up So what are you gonna do with soccer in kind of like a downtime until the women's World Cup picks up? Yeah, I think thankfully you've got the women's World Cup But yeah, this is gonna be the first break for men's soccer really in a couple years with COVID and the schedule being jammed up and then the World Cup and Yeah, it's it's gonna be a sad summer at the Cass household Absolutely. Well, hopefully we can get a World Cup championship in there to kind of fill that void Pick up the excitement once again But the final one of the men's side coming up this Saturday between Man City and Inter We'll break down that full game with Austin get his read on his favorite bets at Fandall Sportsbook Then I'll talk some baseball later on in the show for Wednesday night But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the covering the spread podcast see because on yesterday's show We broke down game number three in the NBA Finals between the heat and the nuggets by talking to Brandon Ghadullah also talked to him about the RBC Canadian Open breaking down his thoughts on this week's field and Sierra bets over at Fandall Sportsbook so Both those options still live you can bet them still over at Fandall Sportsbook Check out that show by subscribing to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and also check us out Over on the Fandall YouTube page coming up later on this week. We'll be talking some NASCAR It's a no ma some more baseball thoughts coming up. We'll talk some more hockey talk some more basketball and of course Strikeout props with pitching ninja back with us on Friday and also the Belmont stakes We'll have Christina Blacker on again on Friday as well all right here in the covering the spread podcast feet But for right now awesome Let's turn our focus to this UEFA champions league final between a man city and enter and right now looking at the markets We got man city minus 220 on the money line That is for 90 minutes plus stoppage time a man city was able to wrap up the EPL and now trying to go for the double crown But the market pretty high on man city in this game So do you believe the gap between man city and enter is as big as the markets imply here? No, I don't and it's actually cities actually going for a trouble because they won the FA cup last weekend. Oh, yeah So I do think city are the best team in the world I think they kind of have been for the past few seasons and that's backed up by their expected goal differential per 90 minutes of Plus 1.23 which is tops among Europe's big five leagues per every reps expect a goal model They're awesome. I've been super impressed with them the second half of the season They've shown an ability to win in different ways. They don't always have to play a beautiful Soccer to win which that hasn't always been the case for them But I think enter are pretty good, too. They're actually differential per 90 is Plus 0.83 which is seventh across Europe Europe's big five leagues and serious generally viewed That's a slightly worse league than the Premier League But both of the leagues have three teams in the top 13 of XG differential across Europe's big five leagues So I think Syria might be just a little undervalued overall Interfinished Syria with an XG differential that was nearly as good as Napoli's and If this was Napoli in the final, I don't think the gap I don't think the odds would be what they are here and Over two matches with Barcelona in the group stage of the Champions League Internache to win in the tie and Barça finished the season with the second best XG differential costs Europe's big five leagues So enters shown that they can play with the big boys and Yeah, I don't think the gaps quite as big as what the odds are showing So right now the tie market is plus 360 again for 90 minutes plus stoppage time The inter money line is plus 550 in that span So if you think that the gap between man sitting enter is smaller than the markets imply What to you is the best route for exploiting that in the traditional markets? So I am interested in taking entered to tie after 90 minutes plus stoppage time but I also like the Correct score market. I think that's what I'm gonna do and that's my preference because it allows me to Bet on city to win which I think is what's gonna happen But also maybe take advantage of enter being undervalued So the shortest odds lie with city to win 1-0 and 2-0 Those are both price at plus 600, but I like taking city to win 2-1 or the match to tie 1-1 Which are plus 700 and plus 800 respectively This match is pretty much a free hit for enter no one's really given them much of a chance As I mentioned earlier, this is a chance for city to get a historic treble only that's only been in once By one other English team. It's kind of a coronation for them. It feels like the stars have really aligned just considering What finals typically look like it's a somewhat easy matchup for them at least that's what the narrative is It's a chance for their manager Pep Guardiola to finally win the Champions League post Barcelona Which to get that monkey off his back So really this it seems like all the stars are lined up for Man City, which means enter can be super free. They're not really supposed to be here There's no way they thought this would be where they were would be before the end of the season So you're talking about the fact that you could be off in this market I think that's important to acknowledge but I think the one thing that this does by taking kind of a longer shot on the 1-1 tie at 8-1 or the 2-1 win at 7-1 You're kind of allowing yourself more upside should that be right? So you're taking a bigger risk which implies more volatility and volatility in your case is not a bad thing So I do like that approach and I think that what I was going to ask you initially is going to go to the double-chance market and check Out inter and draw a plus 165, but I think that you kind of answered my question for me I was gonna ask, you know any thought for you towards taking inter and draw a plus 165 instead of these But I think that by talking about the fact that you could be way off You're getting a better price on those numbers to compensate for that possibility I think that you know you kind of answer my question by saying that you wanted to take that route So was that the thought process for you and giving yourself more upside to account for the fact that you may be off here? Yeah, for sure. I feel like I'm You know sort of swinging for the fence a little bit Yeah, I'm gonna swing for the fence then I'd like to get a payout that Reflects that I'm swinging for the fence instead of just blooping a single over the shortstop's head So, I mean, there's nothing wrong with you know more than doubling your money out plus 165 obviously But yeah, I want to I want to swing for the fence and and see if I can nail it on the 1 1 or 2 1 Okay So the 1 1 market again 8 to 1 and the 2 to 1 win for Man City is 7 to 1 now What about player props anything stand out to you for those in this match? So a lot of these are priced as if enter is not going to score so this kind of correlates with The whole theme I've been talking about all along. I like both Laotaro Martinez and Nicolo Barea to score or assist Martinez is plus 240 to score assist His this recommendations a little bit contingent on Romelu Lukaku not starting if Lukaku starts He'll probably be on penalties if Lukaku doesn't start Martinez will be on penalties And I'd like Martinez to be on penalties when I place this bet He tally 27 goals plus assist in 28 27 serious starts No other enter expected starter have more than six goals So he's their clear focal point and I don't think Lukaku will start So I like that one and then also Barea is plus 430 He's a real key creative piece for them He finished Serie A with 12 goals plus assists and 31 starts scored two goals over his past four Champions League matches with nine shot creating actions in that span If enter are chasing the game late and get some extended possession against City I think he's someone who is capable of making magic happen and creating a chance for them out of nothing So I like both of those guys To score or assist And the kilo Barea as you mentioned plus 430 to score or assist and the Martinez one was plus 240 Are you holding off the Martinez one until you get the official lineup to account for the Lukaku possibility there? Yeah, I'm gonna wait just just in case because to me He's a lot less enticing if Lukaku plays and he doesn't get the penalties One of the risks with that is if Lukaku Does not wind up in the lineup. We could see the Martinez number shorten how How short are you willing to go if we assume this market does shorten with Lukaku out of the starting lineup? Would plus 200 be too short for you to score or assist on Martinez or where's kind of the breaking point for you? I would say the plus 210 plus Okay, 220 range probably for me, but Lukaku I Think he's a long shot to start and I think that's pretty much priced as if he is not starting in plus Okay, for the book. There's no real punishment for them to put it here in case he does start, you know, so right Yeah, so I I would say that I'd go as low as like plus 220. I think Okay So check out the Martinez to score or assist market depending on if Lukaku does or does not go plus 210 plus 220 We're Austin's looking for that one Nicola Berea to score or assist it plus 430 and then again the the correct score markets tie 1-1 at 8 to 1 and man city 2 to 1 at 7 to 1 giving yourself a lot upside here Austin which I like that's some fun for your final men's match for quite some time that is Austin cast make sure you check Him out on Twitter at Austin cast find his work over at number fire calm Austin It has been a pleasure to talk to you throughout this soccer season looking forward to talking to you once again Next year or as other stuff pops up along the way. Good luck on Saturday. Enjoy the match. We'll talk to you again soon Sounds good. Thanks for having on. I've appreciate it. I've enjoyed it too Absolutely. All right, again check out Austin on Twitter at Austin cast and looking forward to some more soccer discussion coming up Next fall once things resume Hopefully getting someone talk on to talk the women's World Cup as well We'll dive into some baseball here in just a bit But first is almost time to crowd a new NBA champion and Fando wants you to be part of the excitement because right now New customers getting no sweat first bet up to two thousand five hundred dollars That is two thousand five hundred dollars back in bonus bets if your first bet doesn't win There's no better place to bet all the finals action than America's number one sportsbook fan duel Official sports betting partner of the NBA must be 21 plus and president select states first online a real money Wager only ten dollar deposit required refund issued is not with trouble bonus bets that expire in 14 days Restrictions apply see full terms at fandal.com slash sportsbook Fandal is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC gambling problem Call 1 800 gambler or visit fandal.com slash RG in Arizona Call 1 800 next step or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 Or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1 800 9 with it in Wyoming in Kansas 105 2 2 4700 or in Kansas KS gambling health comm Louisiana is 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in Massachusetts gambling helpline MA org work all 800 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in Maryland MD gambling health org in New York 1 8 7 7 8 open wire text open Y and in West Virginia Go to 1 800 gambler net Let's dig into some major league baseball for today and outlined a couple money lines and a couple strikeout props that my numbers are Liking for today's game. Let's start things off here with the Red Sox and the Guardians My numbers are showing value in the Red Sox to win this game money line for them plus 1 16 over at Fandal sportsbook and I'm pretty far off market here as I actually do with the Red Sox Favored to win this game and again the money line is plus 1 16 and that could mean that I'm off That's always a possibility and you know, you always want to account for the possibility of your model is just not correct There's margin of errors and stuff like that But I also understand why the model is here the starting pitching matchup definitely does favor the Guardian because Tanner Bybee has looked fantastic Especially recently he's been great his entire career in the minors now in the majors But especially the past six or so starts. He's been outstanding. So I get it but Boston's offense is much better than the Guardians and I Kind of feel like that's going a bit overlooked here Red Sox active roster as a 103 WRC plus against righties The Guardians are at 80. So really bad offense for them this year Cutter Crawford starting for the Red Sox I wouldn't expect him to be a full go here probably around 60 or so pitches before he gives way to that bullpen That's fine for me Crawford has pitched. Well, whether it's been in long relief or as a starter earlier on this year So I've got faith in him. I've got faith in this Red Sox offense. I do not have faith in the Guardians offense So plus 1 16 to me a very good number to get the Red Sox money line for tonight I will take that so the first bet the Red Sox money line at plus 1 16 Second that I like for tonight is actually one in what was the thriller of last night That was the Dodgers and the Reds and right now the Reds money line is plus 142 and I like it I'm gonna take it because I understand if you want to skeptical of Brandon Williamson who will start here for the Reds because Did not have the best numbers in triple a start in the majors I think has been a bit worse than the results let on so his ERA is 4.29 his skill interactive ERA his expected ERA both much worse than that and I'm not super high on him personally But also not super high on Noah Cinder guard on the opposing side Cinder guard has struggled all year long and he's been tinkering as most pitchers do trying to correct that He's been using if you were curve balls his past six starts and you know, we can look into those starts That's his most relevant sample and see if it's improved, but his skill interactive ERA has actually gotten worse It's 4.98 in that stretch So the adjustments Cinder guard has made have not paid on off as of yet. That's one aspect The second aspect is when runners get on base. They are running with reckless abandon against Cinder guard He has led up 16 stolen bases this year The Dodgers have a team as a team have led up more stolen bases than any team in baseball And the Reds are a team that is very willing to run Especially now that Ellie De La Cruz is up with the big league the big league team so I think the Dodgers should be favored here because Williamson is not a guy of a lot of faith in their ISO against lefties is otherworldly so they should be favored but The Reds implied win odds are 41% There are going to be a lot of runs in this game. The total is 11 for a reason this game was chaotic last night I think the Reds offense a bit underrated. I think they could do some damage with their legs against Cinder guard for tonight I think they're a value relative to the market So as always account for the fact this this bet based on what the market is saying has is 41 percent odds of cashing But I think that the odds the Reds actually win or higher than that. So to me The Reds money line plus 142 the Red Sox money line plus 116 the two money lines I like for tonight as far as strikeout props want to start things off with one that is primarily based on pitch count Actually, the other one is too. Let's start things off here by talking about James and Tyone His strikeout prop right now at Fandall sportsbook under four and a half is minus one oh six There's been some action towards the over so that has shifted here I Despite that it's never fun to bet against the market, but I do think the under is the way to go here It's minus one of six right now This has moved against me from where I took it earlier on this morning But do still think there is value in the under and primarily the reason I want the under here is pitch count because Tyone Hasn't gone longer than 80 pitches since he came off the IEL and that's a six-start sample now So pretty large sample they have not been letting go deep in games now part of that's because of effectiveness And that could be fluky, but also even the games. He's been good. He hasn't been going super deep The era for Tyone 8.61 angels roughly average in this strikeout department So I've got Tyone projected for a 3.7 strikeouts tonight He's had strikeout totals on the road in three starts in the sample with three one and one So it is concerning the market has moved against me here as it has there has been some action on the over for Tyone But I do still think the under is the right way to go So I'll take Jameson Tyone under four and a half strikeouts minus one of six I think in order to talk myself into an over here I would need to get assurance that the pitch count for Tyone will increase and I've not seen anything to make me believe That will happen. So I'll take Tyone under four and a strikeouts minus one of six I would note that again, there is money going against that bet But you know, there are reasons I feel differently personally The second one is gonna be an over that is where Chris Bassett gonna check out where his number is right now Over four and that strikeouts is minus one thirty eight a fan. Well, this one has been going the direction I thought it would I do still think there's value in the over but As always make sure you shop around find one number you can get because at least as of earlier on this morning You could get Bassett over four and a half at minus one twenty So check around there even at minus one thirty anything it is a good enough bet to take The reason I like Bassett and would be okay taking it even at minus one thirty eight Despite that being closer to the tipping point is that Bassett will go deep in games He often gets over 100 pitches. He rarely is under 94 and Bassett is a guy I was betting against earlier on this year taking unders considering sacking against him in daily fantasy But seems like he has corrected course He said seven starts if you were curveballs and his strikeout rate in that time is twenty four point two percent That's allowed and hit the over on this number in four out of five in six out of seven starts in this span Despite having four to seven starts on the road He's at home here and facing the Astros not a high strikeout matchup by any means But also not as low of a strikeout matchup as it has been in years past If you look at the starts that Bassett has made a home in this stretch his strikeout totals at home are seven eight and seven so well above that mark and that's been against I believe the Mariners Yankees and I believe the Braves with a third team in there. So three pretty tough teams So the Astros I think with their current health are tough as well But Bassett is shown he can rise that test I'd be willing to check out alternate markets here in Bassett just to kind of see maybe we want to go for a higher upside One a six plus strikeouts plus 154. That's semi enticing too. So Check out the over four and a half if you can get the minus 120. I would probably take that but Minus 138 I'm still wanting to take it. I would consider Six plus strikeouts the plus 154 because I haven't projected at six. So, you know or six point something I believe for tonight. I'd at least consider it But to me, I'm gonna officially go with over four and a half check around if you get minus 120 even at minus 138 is still fine, but overall Bassett and Tyone the two strikeout props Bassett over four and a half at minus 138 Tyone under four and a half strikeouts minus 106 from the two money lines the Reds plus 142 in the Red Sox plus 116 that is all that we have here for today on Covering the spread back with you once again tomorrow talking to an NBA and some NHL And then on Friday double dip we'll be talking some MLB With pitching Ninja Rob Friedman and then talking the Belmont stakes later on so three more shows still to come For this week again, if you want some thoughts on NBA finals game three check out yesterday's show with Brandon Gidella talking about that and the RBC Canadian open Thank you once again to Austin cast or swinging by breaking down his thoughts on the UCL final team Man City and Inter Check out Austin on Twitter at Austin cast and check out his work over at number fire.com I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J I am s a and an ES you can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcasts want to thank you all for Tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your bets. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow Enjoy game three of the finals for tonight. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network