 The following is a presentation of TFNN. Trade what you see with Larry Pezzavento. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now, Larry Pezzavento. Testing 1-2-3, testing 1-2-3, and that's a big 10-4. Alright, I posted a chart of the German Dax up here, folks. You can see it's been in the downtrend. Jeff Hughes will be our guest, Alpha Insight. And as you know, he's a super bear. He'll be live here at the break at 9.30. I'm sorry for the technical difficulties, but nothing I can do about that, but we'll move on to the next one here. I want to go through what happened yesterday, boys and girls, because, you know, we talked about this, the timing of some of these things, and I look at shorter term patterns, but that's what really helps me to understand what the heck is going on. And let's just walk up here. I'll walk this through. This is basically a chart. It's going to be the chart of the E-mini S&P. Hold on, we'll get it right up here for you to see it. It's a four-minute chart, because I wanted to be able to see over here the A, B, C, D forming. You see A, B, C, D right there at the bottom. Okay, now that was the first key that there may be a turn in the market. That happened to be correct. We were setting, you know, right at that magical A, B, C, D number 4203. We went a little bit below it. Then we rallied 100 handles. And look how we did it, folks. We rallied up. We pulled back to a 382. We rallied back. We pulled back to a 382. I stopped it right there because I want to continue it today. If you were to measure that 382, it gave you a high of 4303. And a high last night was 4305. So the A, B, C, D don't work all the time, but when they do, you know, they work pretty good. Now we're going to look at a couple others here because they're very, very important today or are we getting ready to be important? And that is the crude oil has already surpassed. And let's just double check that one too because the only way you can really determine what the heck the market's going to do is to see how it's working in the past. So what you want to do now is we're going to take a look at the crude oil, just like we did yesterday. We were looking for crude oil. You see it come down to that level there, just a little bit below 96, around 95, 90. The low was 95, 40. And since that, that was the A, B, C, D. You can see it right there, 95, 40. Since that time, we've had a very, very strong rally. I'm going to get it up here because now what we've done, and I want to thank our friend Jeff over in Philly for alerting us to the fact that we have this really interesting pattern now coming into crude oil. In fact, we are very, very close to it right now. I just noticed the limit miners went on and stuff. So look what's happened. See, we have now a beautiful 135 pattern. I'm going to post that again just to show you where we are right in here. Now, folks, I don't care what you trade with the trend or against the trend. The whole process of this is to try to make money off the doggone trade. And that's the real key that we want to be watching. So let's just take a look here what that 135 pattern looks like when you put the numbers in and you can see it a little bit more clearly. If you get this up here to move on to this right here and you'll be able to see it hopefully and we'll see what's happening. There you go. Now you can see the, there's your one right up at your high. That was a 61% retracement too. There's another 61% retracement. That's 0.3. And there's another 61% retracement. That 0.5. Is it going to work? That's the secret point, boys and girls. Nobody knows that because this thing, they're predictive in nature, but you're not going to be able to know all the time whether these things are going to work all the time. It just doesn't work that way. So you've got to remember it's all about probability and nothing you'll ask. That's the key to what we're looking at here as we watch some of these things unfold here this morning. I have my beepers just about ready to go out where the order is going to be setting anyway. Hold on a second here. I want to be out close. We are close and almost is where we are. All right. Let's move on here to just a second here, folks. I have a slight difficulty due to the allergy season this day. I wanted to bring another one to your attention that was sent to us by one of our friends up in Canada. It comes from a research firm that I'm not familiar with. But I think it's worth taking a look at this chart because I see some of these things starting to turn down in the commodities, well, especially the metals that we can see here. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? 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At tfnn, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis, and it's not just dry tedious text, either. tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and tfnn's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, tfnn, educating investors. You can see this really nice ABCD Gartley right here. What it's doing is it's looking at all the things. If you look at the wheat, corn, soybeans. Soybean oil has been the strongest, but some of these are starting to turn over. We've got lower tops. They're not rallying back like they should. They haven't broken down yet, but at least they're showing signs of a possibility of a top-up in here. We've had $8 corn. We've got $13, almost $14 beans, and of course we had $13 wheat for a while. But that's what it looks like. And of course, copper, silver, platinum, palladium, all of the metals look very, very negative. So that's the reason behind that chart. So I just bring it to your attention, because as we see them unfold, we'll try to get into some of them if we're able to. Now, the next one I would like to share with you if you'll bear with me here one second is a really good question. Just be here one second. It is a relatively important one, and that is the, hold on one second, noisy girl, there it is, right here. This is the one that's on the watch list big time. We've broken, hold on one second here. Got to get it up to make sure I can put it into this machine as directed. Here we go. Now we're going to switch. We're going to talk about the euro and the US dollar. This is the euro, folks. We have this monster, A, B. There's your C point right here. There's your D point right here. And you also have another A, B, C, D. And here we're already below this point right here now, folks. So we're within about 100 pips of what should be one monster rally in the euro, i.e., turned down at the dollar index. Somewhere around that 102, 103 level in the dollar index is what we're looking at. So it's going along with A, B, C, D, the news behind it is insignificant to us because we just look at the patterns and let the charts try to tell us where are we at. And it's not an easy thing. Like Mark Douglas always said, trading is simple but it's not easy. So let's move on here since we're talking about the US dollar is to bring the US dollar chart up. First, I'm going to show it to you in the format of the daily and as you can see, there's absolutely no reason here to be looking to be short here. We had that beautiful butterfly, three-drive pattern up here. We backed off very slightly, I mean very slightly. We can only make a 3A2 of a low right down here and then we exploded to the upside. What that's telling us and what that's telling us is that if we go in and take a look at the weekly, and that's telling us we're getting ready to go higher which we already have been. This is where you get this price objective. You see we're way above the 78% level now folks so we're going to be shooting at these old highs back in here and that's going to be the one that's going to be really interesting. The key is to watch the euro once we get down to 105 and break 105. We just broke 106 and so we are heading down to that level and that's why I think it's important to pay a close attention to that. Also if you remember we were saying there was going to be a pretty high probability that we would be getting a rally in the notes and as you can see this week we've had, just to get this up here Jeff Hughes is going to be talking to us about these interest rates so that'll be fun to watch but you can see we've made that bottom down in here. We've rallied well over $2,000 now in the notes. Look at the ABCD folks. Just a weekly chart and look at the target here. That's the exact low right down here. I mean, you can't make this up but somebody does. Anyway, you can see the very large ABCDs so we should get a really good rally. We've already got it. We've rallied more than we've rallied four points in bonds now. 139 to 143 and so that's the first part of the rally. Remember down here that the whole world was bearish down here and now what are we doing? We're having this really good rally. That's all I can say. It just looks like it's had the rally and it's continuing and we're going to find out what it's going to be doing. That's the main thing that we want to be watching as we go through looking at some of these. The next one I want to talk to you about is the T-bonds because yesterday's action was a very strong indication of what was happening on this. This is not updated because we've had a very strong notice here all of this after this ABCD was made last night. We came all the way down here. We dropped two handles down to this level right here almost equalling this and then what we've done is we shut up and we made a move above the 143 level. 143.07 I believe was a number. The 382 on that move is 143.03. That's on the daily. Pay attention to that number, folks. It's a doozy and maybe it will work. Maybe it will but all I can say is don't stand in front of it because the whole world is one way and when the whole world is one way, you want to be going the other way. That's the bottom line of what we're paying attention to here. Okay. We've got to do a couple other things here that I need to cover and that is the hold on, this is second here. I think this is it. I had some questions about the Australian dollar from yesterday. I'll bring that up here so we can see it. There we go. This is one of the traits of the seminar over in London. You can see we had the beautiful ABCD up here and it's really hard and it's continuing to drop below that number so it looks like it could be a really big monster but you'll notice here we had this beautiful 382 retracement. Look at this little three-day retracement right at the 382. Those are the ones that are the real easy ones to do and they only work about 65% of the time but the payoff of these things, folks, is nothing short of spectacular in a chart format to make sure that you're on the right side of the market. I covered the DAX. I did cover the hold on one second, Larry. There it is. Got to try the Bitcoin again because this is where I think the big fortunes will probably be made here. This is not a bubble under any circumstances, folks. Get this up here so we'll be able to see it here. Because if this happens, and I think it will, we've had the big ABCD here and then we had the 38 rally up here to 48,000. We got down to 39,000 today. Today we're trading at 41,000. When we break below these lows right here, that means that we might very closely break this low. That would make this a large A. Your B would be here. Your C would be right there. Your XB would be way down here. That's the one you want to be buying. Get that Bitcoin down to 20,000. By golly, that would be really good trading up. We're following that one closely. We haven't traded cryptos yet but we're certainly getting ready to if this pattern unfolds the way that we hope we can. Stay tuned, folks. Let the break always has great stuff. He's got about 12, 13 charts that I know you're going to like. It describes what's going on in the market and I think you'll enjoy it quite a bit here. So we've got a break coming up. The gold market has taken off topside in a large way. If you want to take advantage of this sector now is the time to subscribe to my Gold Report. The Gold Report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector as well as the markets that move gold, which is the currency with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to lose. Every Monday morning I publish the Gold Report with coverage of gold, silver, bonds, the XAU, HUI, GDX as well as more than 30 different mining equities. To see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the Gold Report, sign up now by visiting tfnn.com. Don't miss out on the next great gold trade. Sign up today. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, Tiger's Den. 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To sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders just visit the front page of TFNN.com TFNN is excited about our new software charting program The Art of Timing the Trade Chart in collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best-selling book The Art of Timing the Trade Your Ultimate Trading Mastery System David White has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology. Using this first-of-its-kind program, The Art of Timing the Trade Charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci Formation setups, including Gartleys, ABCs Butterflies and much more. The Art of Timing the Trade Charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days, weeks or even months searching to find. And right now we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month. We are so confident that you're gonna love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money-back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting TFNN.com This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com Okay, folks, we're back. We're talking with Jeff Hughes of Alpha Insights. Jeff, how are you doing today? I'm great, Larry. Thanks for having me on the show today. Well, you're a real treasure to have on you've been warning these folks about this market taking a flying well into and boy, you've certainly been right. Your first chart we're going to look at today is called the tipping point of what's happening with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. Do you want to tell the folks what you're looking at here? Well, this is a 60-year history of 10-year Treasury yield. And as you can see, going back to about 1981 or about 41 years ago, we've been in a very well-defined downtrend that is now being challenged by 10-year bond yield as we traverse above that 270 level where the upper boundary of that trendline comes into play. And our view has been for some time that 10-year yields could challenge 3-3.25% this year, and we thought it was going to happen over the course of nine months, and instead, it took only nine weeks. And so here we are dancing on the razor's edge. And the reason we're calling this the tipping point is simply this. Once we break above this trendline definitively, it now tells us that we're effectively going to put an end to the bull market bonds. And I think that puts into play this potential of closing above 3.25%. And if we did post a monthly close above 3.25%, it actually brings the 6% level into play. Over a number of years, we're not looking forward to immediately gap up to 6%. But I think over the next two to three years, we could be looking at 6% treasury yields on the 10-year. Wow, that's terrific. Now, the next one that we're looking at is your 10-year treasury yield targets. I actually started trotting this chart out about October of last year. We were a little bit early, but the pattern setup looked like it could project to about 3.3 and a quarter. And we went out with a 3% target saying, we think this could occur in 2022. And it took about nine months to go from 3.25 down to 1.70. And so my thinking was once we broke above 1.70, it could take about nine months to get to 3%. Well, again, as I said, it only took about nine weeks. So here we are dancing on the razor's edge. And the Fed has indicated to us that they are now in a position to raise rates really over the course of the next year pretty steadily. Wow, that's really great. Next one we're going to take a look at is the market expectations. You want to tell the folks what you're looking at here. Yeah, so the CME group has created this tool called the Fed Watch tool. And what it does is it gauges the probability based on street expectations, based on survey data, and also Fed funds futures. And what they've done is they've come up with this probability matrix where every meeting going out to March of 2023, they've come up with a high probability of what the Fed's going to do. And so what Bespoke Investment did is they created this chart using that Fed Watch tool. And what it looks like is we're basically on the path of 325 basis points of tightening from the March 16th meeting that just, you know, we just passed. And so we could be looking at something in the neighborhood of around a three and a quarter percent Fed funds rate by March of next year. And the thing that's really important to me about this is the fact that if we look at the core PCE, which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, that came in at 5.4 percent the last time they reported it. They're going to update this on Friday. And basically, I just saw from the PPI number and the PPI number, importantly, I think that what is reported on Friday will eclipse what we're looking at right now 5.4 percent. And what tells me is that two-year yields are going a lot higher. And if in fact the curve remains steep, in other words, if it doesn't invert, then I think we could see this be the catalyst for that 10-year move to go well above the three and a quarter level. Wow. Truly amazing. When I look at these charts, they do so much work and the thought behind it is really spectacular. Now the next one we've posted here is the S&P 500 trend analysis and it's quite apparent there's something rolling over up here. So do you want to tell the folks what you're looking at here? Absolutely. You know, valuation certainly matter in this market at a point in time where the market trades about 19-and-a-half times forward 12-month earnings. And as rates continue to creep higher, it gives the market an excuse to compress that multiple. And based on where the two-year treasury yields trading right now, we believe the multiple deserves to be about 14-and-a-half times. Now we'll assume about five multiples lower. And so if we actually translate that into what we're staring at right here with the S&P 500 trend, it looks like we're about to break below the neckline of a head and shoulders top formation that's been developing over the last basically nine months or so. Clearly the trend is negative. Clearly we're below the 200-and-moving average. Clearly we've broken the uptrend channel and we're now trading sustainably below that 4,300 level or near 4,200 in fact on the S&P today. And I think with the bevy of earnings that are due out today, tomorrow, and Thursday from what are some of the most important companies in the S&P 500. We've got Microsoft and Google reporting tonight. Facebook reports on Wednesday and then of course Apple and Amazon on Thursday. And these four or five stocks represent 22% of the market capitalization of the S&P 500. And as anyone who's been paying attention to earnings reports knows that regardless of whether the numbers are great or bad, stocks are not reacting well. In fact Tesla reported a blowout quarter last week and the stock was only up 3% on the number. It's now down 10% today. And so it's telling us that it doesn't matter what the earnings numbers are. The Fed has already initiated a process of tightening and removing liquidity from the market and the market recognizes where the risk is. And so these heavyweight stocks are a real vulnerability to where the market sits today. Wow, it's truly amazing. When I look at these charts and the way you describe them, it really makes a lot of sense. I appreciate it very much. And we've got a break coming up here in a little bit, but since we've got a break tell the folks how they can reach you. I've already posted that into the room, but those that are in the car might want to hear it. And then when you come back we'll cover some more of these things. Sure, absolutely. You can always find me on my website at www.JWHinvestment.com But a really good way to find me is on Twitter. I'm at www.JWHinvestment.com and you can access our huge insights monthly and investment newsletter. It's free and that's something that we put out some pretty interesting stuff every month. So if you want to follow our work, that's an easy way to do it. And if you really want to dig into our institutional research, you can always subscribe to that on our website. The thing with this, Jeff will be right back. We've got a sweetheart break with Eric with Jeff Health. 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An investment in the funds is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor Four Side Fund Services, LLC. Visit DirectionInvestments.com and hit watch Tiger TV. Folks, we're talking with Jeff Hughes of Alpha Insights. Jeff, your next chart here about the rule of 20. I remember this vaguely, but, you know, I... Could you tell the folks this is from my past and I can't remember what it refers to, so please describe what you're looking at here. Sure, absolutely. So, the rule of 20 simply states that when the sum of the forward 12-month PE multiple and the rate of inflation are added together, they should equal about 20, okay? And so, you know, what we're looking at right now is we're looking at a PE multiple of around 19-and-a-half times on the S&P 500, and that would suggest that inflation is only half a percent and we all know that that's not the case. So, as I was kind of alluding to before, you know, we're going to experience this compression in the PE multiple and what this chart's really showing is it's showing that there's been a very tight correlation between the two-year Treasury yield and the PE multiple on the S&P 500. It's a negative correlation, and so when rates are going higher, PE multiples tend to compress. And so, you know, we're currently looking at something like 260, 2.6 percent on the two-year Treasury yield today with a trip with the multiple on the S&P at 19-and-a-half times. And based on this historical relationship, it's projecting that over the next several months that PE multiple could collapse down to around 14-and-a-half times. And so, if we were then to take that 14-and-a-half and add to it the 5.4 percent, for example, of the core PCE, the Fed's preferred measure of core inflation, the sum of that would be 19.9, almost 20. And we suspect that that core PCE is going to come in a little higher on Friday, and so we're going to be dancing around that. So my suspicion is that PE multiple on the S&P will compress by about five multiple points, and that translates into about a 25-percent valuation haircut on the S&P. Oh, man. Hey, this next section is really important for me because I don't follow stocks very much, but I do follow the FANG stocks, and you've got a chart here on some of these I'd like for you to go through those. The first one we're going to look, of course, is Google or Alphabet, and go ahead, my friend. Yeah, so Alphabet reports tonight after the close, right? And as you can see here, this is a three-year weekly chart, and Alphabet's already broken below its trend line. It's broke trend, and it's also broken chart support, and that's based on weekly closing prices. And so now we've closed several weeks, three weeks in a row now, below that chart support and trend support level. A relative strength is tanking on this chart, and so it tells me, and what we're looking at here is more or less kind of a classic pattern top formation of the head and shoulders variety, and this pattern is proliferating throughout the market. And what it's telling me is that if Alphabet reports tonight, even if they report a good co-quarter, the market's already decided that the stock needs to go lower for whatever the reasons are, but the multiple is going to compress, and unless they give us just blowout guidance for the next quarter or the next year, the market is not going to accept that as satisfactory, and we will see the selling ensue in my opinion. Well, Jeff, I respect your opinion. I remember three months ago, it was, well, it was November. We had you on the show there, and we had, I think, eBay, not eBay, but Netflix, just near $700 a share, and you were talking about the over-evaluation of it, and I think it's had a sell-off. I'm not sure, but I think it's down a little bit below $700 now. Am I correct? I don't trade anything about the stocks, folks, or anything. All I'm showing you is that some of these things, when they unfold, boy, they really, really unfold. Now, I wanted to bring another one up, where it starts with an A. We'll do the As first, and this one's going to be Amazon, and then we'll move on to Apple, because all of these are beautiful chart patterns that you can show the folks, the technical patterns that we look at so much. So go right ahead, please. Yeah, so Amazon, again, has kind of something of a classic top formation. There's multiple tops in place, so it's not your true head and shoulders top, but we've clearly broken trends. We've clearly broken chart support, and it's telling us, basically, when they report the results on Thursday, they need to say something spectacular in order to get this stock to move back up, and the thing about Amazon is they've never failed to disappoint when they report. You can look at it quarter after quarter after quarter, maybe one in 10, the stock reacts positively. I would be very surprised if the stock goes up on whatever they have to report, because there's really no good news to report here, and that's kind of, you know, across the board. Wow. That's really good. We've got a couple others here that I hope we can get to, because I really think we're going to look at Apple, because everybody likes Apple. Well, how would I know about products? I don't use an Apple product at all. Well, I actually have a little, those little stereo deals to put in your ear when you're walking around. Okay, here's Apple. Apple is the most over-owned stock on the planet. Every single mutual fund has to own it. It's the largest market cap stock in the S&P 500 at approximately 7% of the total market cap. And what we see here is a double top, a clear double top. The stock is broken trend. It's challenged what would be chart support based on prior highs, and it's failed to make a new high on this, on this, you know, recovery rally, and it looks to me like it's, you know, going to challenge or retest that support level and if we get bad news and mark my words, anything that isn't great news is going to be treated as bad news. And we already know they got supply chain problems up the yin and yang, and that's because we've got a lot of yin and yang going on in China right now. And at the end of the day, my suspicion is that Apple will resolve to the downside confirming this double top pattern, which again, these patterns proliferate across all these big mega cap stocks. You know, we'll look at Microsoft and some others as well. Wow, that's really good here. Let's get softy up because I know that is such a big factor between Apple and Microsoft. I think you're talking a huge amount of, let me see if I can find it here. You had so many beautiful charts in here today that I, this one's going to be a little more difficult for me to find Apple. You know, I can't find the darn, I know it's Microsoft. The first chart of the series, if you're looking at it in order. Well, unfortunately, I can't find the darn thing. We got a break coming up here. Hopefully I'll find it by the break. Here it is. I found softy. Hold on just a second, folks. We'll get it right up here so we can take a look at it. This is like, you take those stocks. This is about 15 or 20% of the Nasdaq and plus, you know, the Nasdaq is the weakest of all. So, okay, we've got softy up. So let's take a look at it. Yeah, so Microsoft is really the poster child for the whole thing. We broke this trend back in December and put in this classic pattern top formation of the head and shoulders variety. And it looks like it's already resolved to the downside. I think anything other than stellar guidance will send this stock reeling. They report tonight after the close. Thank you, Jeff. We'll be right back after the break, okay? Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis. And it's not just dry, tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. 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You told us a long time ago that about three weeks ago we're hitting down hard and by golly we're down 500 and the Dow 400 and the Nasdaq, that's a huge move, 1% and 80 points in the S&P and we're going to have you on again soon so please come and visit us in about two weeks, okay? That sounds great, Larry. Thanks for having me on the show today. Always a pleasure. It is a pleasure, Jeff. Thank you so much. You're a stand-up guy. I really love it. Jeff, huge alpha insights folks and we have tomorrow our guest will be none other than Alfie Levois, the owner of Air Software. He's got a big sale going on for those that you'd like to do cycle research and stuff so that's very important. When we started the show, folks, we were looking at the June crude oil to get up around that 101.60 level. So far it's been 101.68. We're trading 101.58, up $3.00. Remember yesterday, folks, it was down $5.00. We've rallied now $8.00 off the bottom. We wanted to yesterday. Everybody wants it today. So be really careful in here, folks, because they're really interesting patterns forming in some of these things that look... Sometimes they work, sometimes they don't, but when they do, they work very well. Also keep an eye on the bonds, folks. We had some really interesting patterns and we weren't able to cover those today, but we've been talking about them well over two weeks now to see this strong rally occurring and that's exactly what we've going on. So I hope all of you have a wonderful day. I think I have about half a minute or something like that before the end of the show, but live every day in an attitude of gratitude and may God bless. And I think everything's going to be okay no matter what happens in the world because we think positive here at TFNN. So we'll see you on the flip side tomorrow, folks, with Alfield Roy and may God bless.