 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread? That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire comm as we're getting you set for the NFL conference Championships breaking down both those games with Nick Costos of you better you bet and sports illustrated My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire comm joint here As always by Ed Fen you can find his work over at the power ranked calm and on Twitter at the power-ranking Ed It was an awesome weekend of football. We had the Saturday games, which is okay I was mostly mad about that Titans game the whole time, but I don't know that Titans. Okay, it was just okay That was that was pretty fun. I was a team that went 14 and 2. I mean, that's just the variance No, you didn't bet the under on 19 and a half on the Titans and watch those dreams go out the window very very fast Yeah, I don't know. I thought it was fun. I mean, I've kind of been I Don't know. I guess I didn't my heart wasn't in the Baltimore. I like what they do Obviously, I love what John Hall was doing with the analytics But you know, I think it kind of made a perfect story I mean I'm thinking about doing some more content around fourth down decision-making and like they were just so brilliant at it Yeah, but the regular season then you go 0 for 3 in critical situations or over to or whatever they were It was uh, I don't know. I had a lot of fun on that Saturday night. I did not I did very much enough, but I had a lot more fun on Sunday because I love Patrick my homes I love Damon Williams. I love the Chiefs and I was like my fiance came home from something like When it was 24 to nothing and she asked how the stuff was going for like work, you know Like asking about my daily fantasy and betting and stuff and I was like, it's not great I was it was in a bad place But then they came roaring back and she came back out at halftime and saw that the Chiefs were up And it was just like it was nuts. Yeah, I was telling you beforehand I think I've only had more fun watching one game this year And that was the 49ers Saints game during the regular season like right those two are the top two for me And that one I know the final score wasn't close, but it was such a thrill ride that whole time Yeah, yeah, absolutely. I mean, you know to see him go up 24 nothing and You know, I mean the thing about that game Houston actually had more yards in Kansas City You know when you fact when you when you go over the whole course of the game Houston got out and was very good. Kansas City had some major drops these issues And then and then the switch completely flipped Yeah, and you remember, I mean Kansas City a bunch of really short fields in that second quarter when they put up 28 points. Well, yeah, I want to ask you quickly because I trust you to know analytics stuff and I what are your thoughts on Bill O'Brien kicking the field goal because in the moment I thought it was really dumb and his explanation made me feel worse about it Like it seemed like oh, that was actually downward than I thought it was I mean, are you the same way there? Yeah, absolutely. I mean I tweeted about this, you know that just that You you should go for that. I mean, what was it fourth and three the offense is rolling 21 nothing You're up 21 nothing and I think part of the psychology level we're up 21 nothing, right? Like we can just kick the field goal take the points, right? And then you know, they probably had but no, oh wait, that was fourth and one, right? I Think it might have been fourth and three. I don't actually remember. No, because it was a fourth and three I think that they did the punch the fake point. Yeah, yeah, which which in you know Which feels okay to me right like you want I'm always in favor of being aggressive If you think you got to play and obviously they make that if the Kansas City guy doesn't make a pretty tremendous open field tackle there I guess that is his job But you know that better odds of converting that fourth and one deep in KC territory than than the fake pun So yeah, I guess like if I'm gonna go for it on fourth and three I'd rather have it with the Sean Watson rather than you know a special teamer But I understand I think the reason I'm hesitant to you like that one is Knowing bill O'Brien. I think that his mindset was the momentum has gone against us. Let's get the momentum back and momentum I'm not gonna say doesn't exist But it kind of like doesn't exist as much people think it does and I think that was a thought process So I think the process to getting him to go for it was flawed. Therefore. I'm hesitant to say it was the right I just don't want to praise him for something. I think was likely very flawed in the disability for sure for sure Look guys momentum exists man. It's mass times velocity is well-defined concept in physics Okay, that exists the point is how much does classic physics apply to football when you're looking on the scales that we're looking at So classic physics clearly applies on every single play. Yes in terms of contact and collision and conservation of linear momentum There's a lot more randomness when you're looking at the score So maybe momentum, you know, like when we physicists like start thinking about bigger things We tend to go to random models and there maybe momentum isn't See that you know going to good use there we go. I like it Then we had Monday night We had the national championship momentum did not matter there because LSU just went nuts and That was a really fun game to watch not because it was close But because watching Joe Burrow do what he did Like there's a difference between a close game and a game where the execution is just insane Trevor Lawrence to not execute But Joe Burrow did and I think that that alone made it a thrilling game to watch Yeah, I did not enjoy this game. I as you guys all know I definitely had Clemson plus five and a half points and I expected them to At least be on the same level as LSU. They were not on the same level as LSU LSU's receivers dominated Burrow missed what? One or two throws the entire game. He was very accurate on all of his deep balls Trevor Lawrence was not accurate at all. You can either blame him or I actually talked with David Hale of ESPN who Watches a lot of ACC football as part of his job He thought it was a little bit more on the receivers not getting separation Sure, you could clearly see that they got no separation as well But LSU dominated, you know, and I got to eat a lot of crow man Someone pulled up a tweet about when Edo first got hired at LSU and how I thought that was hilarious He was three and 21 in SEC games as the coach at Ole Miss I did not think that translated to anything remotely close to what we've seen from this LSU team So props to him. I was wrong and and I got to eat it. Yeah, there was an LSU fan who like Added old takes exposed on our podcast from last week and I was like, hey, they're not gonna listen to the podcast What are you doing? But I was like, come on man, like chill out So we're gonna go back through that and talk about what we got wrong for the national championship game and We got quite a bit wrong. So we'll go through that in just one second But first make sure you follow Nick Costos on Twitter. He is at the Costos again He is a host on you better you bet his betting advice or sports illustrated in some really quick really fun videos there We're gonna preview the conference championships across the NFL and get his thoughts on deep dish pizza and other very important things So make sure you follow at the Costos on Twitter. Is there only podcasts this week? We're doing one podcast per week through the Super Bowl We'll have one next week and then one week before the Super Bowl as well to get set for that So make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread and while you're there Please rate and review the podcast if you are an Apple podcast We do appreciate all of those before we get to Nick though Let's take a look back at last week and we're both gonna eat some crow should be a lot of fun Covering the past Alright, so last week we had Teddy Savaransky on here to cover the national championship I can find Teddy on Twitter at Teddy underscore covers and You guys got some really good line movement on the things you mentioned It just didn't matter outside of the under for Teddy was talked about in a second But you and Teddy are both on Clemson plus five and a half It actually closed at four and a half and I think it was at four at some books as well Unless you obviously covered that So I know the line movement doesn't really make you like it doesn't comfort your pocket Book right, but at least there were other smart people on the same side as you I know it does not financial matter But it seems like other people had a similar thought process there Yeah, it's it's not look all all the numbers I looked at a bunch of numbers and mostly the ones that I trust every you know It was a pretty wide spectrum But it was within three the game was within three points and and everything that I looked at and I think that was right and but and and obviously the line movement went in our favor and That's fine if Clemson Could pretend to be on the same level as LSU right, but they they just couldn't and I don't know what that is I mean obviously everyone has bad games album is not as bad as they played against Clemson last year in the title game So, you know, it's football. That's what happens and did not did not go my way But you know, I mean Clemson Trevor Lawrence will be back So and it seemed like there was kind of a snowball effect to you where once once things start to go in the wrong Way, you can kind of see guys start to question themselves like maybe that's where momentum exists is where it affects people Psychologically, yeah, because like they are human beings in their college kids But like people's overvalue it, but I'm not saying it's like not a thing at all Well, I think it seemed like we kind of got to that point Right, but I think the way we got to that point is interesting, too I don't think there was a single turnover in the game and usually when I Should double-check that but I don't you know like usually when a game gets away turnovers are playing a role Right, but that wasn't the case like Clemson was just getting beat on both sides of the ball You know, I mean, I think Clemson was pretty good running the ball But you know, that kind of goes out the window once you get down a little bit And you need to come back So I think just the way the game happened the way the game got away from Clemson was you know Probably more effective them just because they're like look, we're not we can't cover these guys like that What did it amounted to and just the depth of the Clemson pass catchers or the LSU pass catchers It was nuts like yeah, if you cover Jamar Chase who cares we'll go to Randy Moss's son You know, like that's it. It was so wild Justin Jefferson who had like seven touchdowns against Ohio State Wasn't the prime. He wasn't even like the top two as far as like targets and stuff like that So the depth there was nuts. Teddy did get the under on this game He said he liked it at 69 and a half like the under there close to 67 And luckily Teddy got that one when he did because the game finished with exactly 67 points So good on Teddy for nailing the under there I wanted the under on Joe Burroughs passing yardage prop at 365 and a half He passed that in the third quarter and finished at 463 So he didn't lap it by a hundred yards at least because that would have been way worse, but You know Joe Burroughs is good and like I'm okay admitting that he's really freaking good I thought he was good going in. I just didn't think he'd get to 365 and a half though It's such a big number, but like dude. It's just good man. It doesn't matter if the defense is he's just good Yeah, absolutely As far as the NFL goes we had Chris Andrews on he is the director of the South Point Sportsbook You can find Chris Andrews on Twitter at Andrews Sports for Titans Ravens He said he thought the right number there was Ravens minus nine at Fandall Sportsbook The line was nine and a half when we talked about it So I thought that the Titans side was better than that when the Titans did cover and win I said I wanted the under on 19 and a half on the Titans team total and Like with the Joe Burrough thing they passed that pretty quickly So not a great weekend there for me didn't really have a chance on either of those unfortunately Chris also said he wanted a high number on the Chiefs in South Point And they were nine and a half the Fandall Sportsbook and they covered that one pretty easily eventually So Chris on the right side of both those you both talked about Packers versus Seahawks He said that his numbers like the Packers at minus four and he thought he'd get to minus four and a half It did you on the Seahawks plus four and if they hit that two-point conversion You would have covered which I think is the second time this year that's happened. So Just one of those where it could have gone either way, but you've had some bad two-point conversion lock this year as a way that I'd phrase Yeah, yeah, but let's not focus on me. Let's focus on Chris I mean he basically told us the right way on every single side He likes San Francisco side to that worked out and he was basically like I don't know what to think about this this This the Green Bay Seattle side and it landed very close to the number. So props to Chris Andrews I thought he nailed it and you know, I didn't I didn't agree with all four of those Right. So So anyways, we all have a lot to learn from from people like Chris Andrews Maybe there's a reason he's in the position. He's in yeah Yeah, but you know like, you know, Seattle more yards then more yards per play, you know They they just couldn't get it done on on third downs I think the third down discrepancy between Green Bay and Seattle was pretty big and obviously Green Bay converted two very long Third downs the ice to game towards the end Jimmy Graham Stop being a statue and actually made some plays in that game, which was kind of unbelievable Given what I've seen from him this year. So this year last year, too. He couldn't move Yeah, outside of week one this year week one he looked pretty spry and I was like, oh, no I because I didn't have any of my best ball leagues and I was like, oh boy. I'm gonna get wrecked but then after that it was nothing and I Don't know how to quantify this. I've been trying to quantify this. I've dug into different splits The Packers play really poorly when they're ahead and I don't know why this happens But it happens like the the Washington game when they got ahead They did nothing the Seattle game when they got ahead did nothing Giants game yeah, and I looked into Roger's splits and like he's league average when they're playing from ahead and like maybe that's like What it is like they're just kind of okay when they're ahead But for some reason they play really well like if you look at dr. Heger he tweets out like EPA on it's unscripted plates the Packers great out really well there and they get leads But then they fold and like right That almost bit them here, but like I don't know what that says about this weekend against the 49ers I don't want to bet them at plus seven and a half, but it makes me nervous about Taking the 49ers side, too. So I don't know man. They're very confusing I don't know why they'd be bad when playing from ahead because you should be really good playing from ahead But they suck and it's so it's so confusing to me. They are a very weird team They might just suck period. Yeah, that's true. We'll have to get Nick cost us his thoughts on that But the Packers a really weird team So looking to bounce back this week with the conference championships will talk to Chris and just one second But first if you want to get in on the action check out the Fando sports book and place your first bet today If you lose Fando will give you a refund up to five hundred dollars in site credit This is sportsbook.fandall.com for more details terms and conditions apply must be 21 plus and Physically present in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia or Indiana gambling problem call 1 800 gambler Let's bring on Nick Nick Costos right now He is on Twitter at the costos you can find him on you better you bet and it sports illustrated as well We're gonna break down the conference championships in the NFL and get his thoughts on those two big games Covering the present Let's bring Nick Costos here into covering the spread to preview conference championship weekend across the NFL Nick It is a pleasure to have you on for today. How you doing? I'm doing great great to be here with both of you fine gentlemen who have both been on you know My show you better you bet throughout the season so really appreciate that appreciate the inside and analysis and you know I'm kind of honestly candidly Little happy the football season is coming to an end because it's like you get you kind of like you get your ass kicked for three or four Months straight and it's like man. I could really like just get me to college hoops I get get me to conference playing college hoops in the NBA because at this point like I feel like I'm like Floating out in the ocean like searching for something to hold on to with the way that this football season has gone so far It's not even the difficulty It's it's like the workload because at this point I am dreaming about like Tajé sharp snap rate and I want to like I want to lose my mind Because I can't it's so mundane and so stupid. I don't care how many snaps Tajé sharp place It does not affect me in real life, but because I'm obsessing over it every day Just the workload aspect it gets to be it's a lot. You know, well Which are you guys are going to be diving into XFL next? About it, but yeah, I mean, I'm definitely gonna bet on the XFL But like it, you know, like I think this is kind of an underrated part of what like we do for a living Right that people are like, oh like this is great Like like you do this for a living and it's really awesome and it is really awesome Like it's great to be able to talk about football for a living But when you do that you have no free time during football season because in theory like the days that you should have off Let's say it's like the weekend for instance for a regular person who works a regular Monday to Friday 9 to 5 We we got to watch games all day Saturday and all day Sunday And I know it doesn't sound like it's like a drain because like we all love football But like when you can never do anything else and you have no free time Like I'm looking forward to like living my life again once football season ends like having more of a social life being able to Like brunch on a Sunday if I want to do that and not have to be like locked in in front of the Television like first world problems to the extreme, but this is kind of like the give and take with doing this for a living Yeah, I call January through March my summer and like that's very weird given that live in Syracuse, New York And that's very much not summer in Syracuse, but that's that is really what it is now Nick before we dive into the very mundane things That is the conference championship and things that don't matter I had to ask you about something that does matter and that is deep dish pizza because I deeply judge people who don't like deep dish and your Twitter account says you have seen the light You've come to the right side of history and are now a deep dish believer What got you to convert and finally come to the light side? Well, I want to give a shout out and I'm a bash him in a second So shout out to my regular producer on you better. You bet Eli Herskovich was like a badass College basketball handicapper as well as being a great producer and an up-and-coming host in the industry So Eli is a Chicago native and we've had the opportunity and thankfully very grateful that that intercom or parent company has Believed in our show and given us the opportunity to be simulcast on terrestrial radio throughout all playoff days So like from I'll be back in Chicago this for conference championship Sunday this weekend doing a show Broadcast all around the country as opposed to just being on radio comm. It's also on radio comm so appreciate that opportunity so Having gone to Chicago the last couple weeks Eli's from Chicago I said Eli like I want to do the full tourist experience here. Take me for Chicago deep dish pizza And I'm from New York. I got the Yankee out of here So I like New York style pizza obviously so Eli takes me to Giordano's now. I'm like, okay, whatever So they bring out what I viewed to be like a manhole cover with like cheese and sauce And I'm and I'm eating this thing and I'm like it's not bad like even like it's like sex Right even bad sex is good like bad pizza still good I would give it like a five point one or a five point two out of ten Like I really didn't impress me so I'm down on the deep dish pizza So I tweet that out and everyone's coming back at me like you got to go to another place So this past weekend so wild card weekend. We went to Giordano's this past weekend divisional weekend He took me to P quads and man That was some that was some dope ass deep dish pizza man. That was delicious. Like I loved it So it's it's like anything else right like good if it's good. It's good if it's not good It's not good. It was really good. I loved it. No, that's awesome So I live four hours from Chicago. We go there every year basically to eat me and my family and we I mean Honestly, I've always been disappointed with some of the pizza I can't even remember the places that we've been but one of This is my best life hack that I can tell anyone is eater.com So they will do the top 38 places in every city. I I mean, I've probably gone to 4050 restaurants based on eater.com. I can tell you You gotta get that you gotta get that sponsorship man You can't give them stuff like that out for free. They should be paying you for that man I can tell you the two places that were not exceptional fried chicken place in Las Vegas and the pork place in Boston Everything else is amazing. So anyways, the point is P quads was on that list and so we didn't we didn't hit it this last time But when when eater and Nick costos degree, I think I think we got a winner there So Nick, you're going back to Chicago again this weekend, right? That's right. Yep I'll be back this weekend. So get Eli to take you to Luma Nadi's Okay, I've heard that yeah the butter crust from Luma Nadi's with the You can get it with the sausage where the sausage is literally just a layer But you should get like the crumbled sausage with the butter crust at Luma Nadi's that is your assignment From covering the spread for this weekend and you got to go to Rick Bay. This is Choco, too So here's the thing this weekend guys that may that may hinder all of this My girlfriend is coming with me to Chicago this weekend because we so we don't have to do a show on Saturday this week It's a Sunday, but I'm still flying in on Friday. So she's gonna come with me. We're gonna check Chicago out I don't know if I can like get her to come and eat deep dish pizza Maybe but if I can I'll be back for the Super Bowl too though So but anything like butter related like butter crust sounds like absolutely like unbelievable So I'm not going back for the Pro Bowl, you know the the the pinnacle of betting across the NFL Whatever take the over Well, let's talk some Eddie Bell now here with you Nick while we got you here And one thing we were talking about last week was you're trying to you know reinvestigate our process We're talking with Teddy Savransky about this teddy covers And he was talking about how he goes through every game He bet during the year to see what went wrong try to find some flaws in this process What about you? You know, what's the process for you in evaluating yourself? Trying to find strengths weaknesses and any alterations to your process as you look forward to next year So I want to be like very clear about this And I say this, you know, whenever I do podcast or talk to anyone about anything including like perspective bosses when I get Hired to a place like I did for sports illustrated and radio calm I will never like misrepresent myself like I am not a professional sports better I I have gambled on sports for 15 years. I'm a lifelong diehard sports fan I think if you put me in a room with like 90 on other sports fans chances are I know the most about sports and sports history That's not me being braggadocious. That's just basically a fact But I am not a pro sports better like I'm a host. I'm a professional host Like I don't get paid to go 57% by my employers. I get paid to host an entertaining show So like I'm never like I've had seasons where I've done Exceptionally well like right and they're probably veered more towards luck than anything else But I'm not like a winning sports better so to speak like I'm never gonna go like 57% season after season after season unless I get extraordinarily lucky now this season has been worse than it's been I would say probably in like Since I've started doing sports gambling stuff in the media back in like 2012-2013 when I started writing about it for bleacher report and the industry has changed so much since then This has been my worst season and I think the reason why and It's gonna sound like I'm kind of like blaming external external Reasons why but it's my fault ultimately I think that we interview so many people on the show on you better you bet right and there's so much more Information out there than there ever has been and there are so many sharp people whose opinions. I respect that I find that Normally like on a Monday or Tuesday in past years I know what I'm betting like I know what the sides I'm gonna take are and like I'm like locked into that throughout the week unless like the injury information comes out and like Changes something dramatically or like a total and there's gonna be weather this year I find that like I could really like something and then we'll have like an odds maker on and he's like Well, we're gonna need the other side or we'll have a guest on like maybe it's maybe it's Jim Maybe it's Ed maybe it's someone else that we really respect that comes on the show on like a weekly basis or close to it And they are hot on the other side and that forces me to kind of sit back and fully Acknowledging that the vast majority of guests that we have on are sharper than me And I have no problem saying that again because I'm a pro host and I think that when it comes to talking I'm really good So it's whatever and I'm forced to kind of reevaluate my thought process a little bit like huh if This person who is sharper than me and like does this for a living is really strong on this one side And I like the other side now I start to question it a little bit and I get in my own head a little bit And I think that the biggest takeaway I have and this is again not to insinuate that I know more that I shouldn't take the opinions of Other people, but I need to be have a little more faith and trust in like my own process Which has led me to winning seasons in the past and again I'm not saying that I'm the best gambler of all time, but I have had seasons where I've won This has been more of a down season in the past than I've had in the past So I think that's gonna be the number one change that I have is to kind of stick to my guns a little bit and not get thrown off What I like just because someone whom I respect is on the other side and that's happened quite a bit this year Interesting so Nick. Do you still have any futures bets that are live or anything that you're still looking at? And any teams for the Super Bowl. Yeah, so my big futures bet that I have right now And it's my biggest future bet. I had the nationals to win the World Series, which is really good You and Eli During the during the movie playoffs about that and he was like Sweating the whole time and I was like rooting for them partially because of that. It was it was fun to follow Yeah, so we had the Raptors in the NBA playoffs. You shouldn't say we I'm not giving Eli credit for that I had the Raptors in the NBA playoffs and then we had the Nats along with Joe. Oh, Joe Estrowski What am I co-host on you better? You bet we all had nationals futures tickets My biggest future ticket is on Kansas City, and I think I bet it at like the end of November I think I've eight and a half to one wish I had gotten a better number I just felt like at the time when I placed that wager and it was kind of like universal on the show like Joe And I both came to the same conclusion Locky Lockers and Ken Barkley and I came to the same conclusion like the Ravens were getting so much love, right? And deservedly so because like they had an unbelievable regular season but it was almost like people were sleeping on Kansas City to a degree and Lamar's the MVP and I'm not here to argue Lamar shouldn't be MVP and I think he's gonna be fine I love the hot takes coming off after the game on Saturday. It's like whatever. He's gonna be great Patrick Mahomes, I still think is the best quarterback in the league Like I still think he's the guy and the defense is playing so much better and there again We're flying under the radar that I felt like No brainer at that point when like they had the third best odds in the AFC behind New England and Baltimore at the time And I think there was a case to be made even at that point that Kansas City was the best team in football So I feel very comfortable with that number. I'm a little nervous about this game coming up on Sunday But I do think the Chiefs will be able to win So that's my future right now is Kansas City to win the Super Bowl and I do feel decent about it at the moment I think the wild thing about Kansas City is at the time you made that bet if probably around like week 13 or so at that point they had played like two or three full games With everyone healthy, you know, they lost a lot of tackle Eric Fisher for a long time Mahomes is hurt Tyra Kill was hurt semi walk-ins was hurt like they hadn't had everyone together except for like three games and they were still playing really freaking well and One of those games that span was actually a game against Tennessee We get to see the rematch this weekend and we also imagine between the 49ers and the Packers at one point during the regular season two But it's so different now from what things were back in November when these these teams played each other So do you even look at those games when trying to analyze the games this weekend? Or do you think they're too misleading to really put stock into well? I want to give a shout out to a guy who I know is a friend of both I think he's a friend of both he should be at any event if he's not Adam turnoff Oh, it's the simple handicap podcast He's one of our regular guests on you better you bet and I think he's made a really great point and like I've thought it also But I can't like pass it off as my own because like he's he's also said it that like I think it's important kind of to go and look at what your handicap of that game was Before the game was played, right? And I think like that's the important thing to take out of it. So I Lean towards Kansas City right laying the points on Sunday And I know Tennessee won that game that they played when they played that game I think towards the end of November 35 32 an arrowhead or whatever the whatever it's ten now Whatever the hell it was Kansas City was minus six and Titans ended up winning outright It was kind of a flukey result And I feel like you kind of get yourself into trouble if you're like if you are one handicap for the game is Titans won the game outright now. They're getting seven and a half I need to bet on Tennessee for that reason like I think there's a case to be made for Tennessee And I'm actually like I think both of you guys are really sharp I'd love to see if you guys agree with me or not that I think it would be faulty To kind of use that like you can make a case for Tennessee But the case should not be that they beat them in that game because there was I thought was a very flukey result Well, I think the the Packers game too is another great example of that because there was no D4 There was no quant exam Quant Alexander and then Brian Bulaga the right tackle for the Packers left that game nine snaps in and so I guess like for Me if the teams were similar then to what they are now I am okay looking at it to get aspects of how they'll play each other stuff like that But I don't want to look at the results because that Packers game snowballed and games like that happened like that can happen But I don't want to overvalue that so I think for me It's taking into mind the context around what happened and not overreacting to the final score So I think is what you're saying with that Titans chiefs game being kind of fluky in the final score Yes, correct So like Kansas City easily could have won that game and now we're and then we're having a different conversation about it right now And again, I think there's a case to be made for the Titans to cover this spread I actually kind of like Tennessee in the first half maybe a little more than the full game because once Kansas City pulls away and like This Titans defense. I don't need to tell you guys the Titans defense is better than Houston's defense I think on the whole but this Titans secondary is really not very good And we saw what Kansas City is able to do obviously with like that that redskins against the Broncos Super Bowl like performance Is just annihilating them in that second quarter where I had the Texans plus 10 I thought that looked like a great bed and then all of a sudden they don't even cover the game line up 24 Nothing, so I think there's a case to be made for Tennessee keeping the game close I think what's more likely is Tennessee keeps it close at the start and then maybe Kansas City pulls away at the end of the game So I do like the chiefs to win the game if you made me pick right now I guess I I slightly lean towards the chiefs to cover that number. I think Tennessee keeps it close at the start I would have set this number probably at like nine or like eight and a half if I had said if I had to set the Opener so I do think there's a little bit of value with the line being what it is now if you like Kansas City But it is by no means a slam dunk pick in my opinion And I don't think the either game is um as are either or as well and I would agree with that too I think it could go either way for bullsot. Let's talk more about that titans chiefs game The number right now fandals sportsbook seven and a half the total is 52 and a half and The toughest Dilemma I have had with this titans team is figuring out the sustainability of their offense I agree with you about the defense the defense is Not going to have an answer for tiger kill, which I'll talk about later on But the offense is hard for me to decipher So do you think Derek Henry can keep doing what he is doing or is what he's done unsustainable? I I see no reason why he couldn't keep doing what he's doing like he's A physical freak and I don't care And I don't I don't want to listen to any of this crap, and I'm not poo-pooing at a lady I'm really not and I'm not trying to like plant my flag in the sand to someone who's like anti that stuff because that is The farthest thing from the truth, but anything that tells you that like Look, maybe he's not going to go for a buck 80 Right and then like continue to set like that nfl record like maybe that's not going to happen But like is Derek Henry going to rush 21 times for 52 yards in the game like That's not going to happen Like he's going to have some degree of success on the ground And I think it stands to reason that you know even though ryan tannill has thrown for 160 yards combined in the two Playoff wins like a throwback to like the helsion days of bob greasy and the miami dolphins He has shown you over the course of the season since he replaced marcus marriott in the lineup That he's capable of putting up fireworks through the air like he's not as good as my homes And i'm not trying to indicate that he can match with a home score for score But to be like this is like some prehistoric offense. I don't think that that's fair I mean they've got weapons in the passing game that can be very effective a j browns an absolute stud I'm down on cori davis, but he's not a terrible complimentary piece John oosmith you brought up tajé sharp and the slot like these are not like all all world weapons But like to be like this is like a mesozoic era like army navy style offense Like I think that's kind of foolish to think that so I mean I actually think and maybe maybe i'll be proven out to be wrong about this I actually think that if the titans are to cover this number and to keep this game close Normally if you like an underdog it kind of like correlates to the under right I kind of feel like it may correlate more to the over if the titans are going to keep this game close Because I don't think there's any doubt the chiefs are going to put a number up right like there's no way they're not going to And you mentioned tiric The titans can't defend the opposing titan travis kelsey's going to absolutely eat as well So can't you see he's going to put points up on the board if tennessee is going to cover this spread They're going to have to put points up as well And I think that they definitely could be up to the task and I think again It's foolish to kind of dismiss this offense and say oh they can't do that if they get down by 17 points They can't possibly come back. I don't know that that's true I still think that they have something that they can put some points up on the board and they can throw it if they need to Yeah, absolutely. I mean one of the things I'm looking at in this game with derrick henry is that kansas city is the worst Rush defense in the league by success rate adjusted for for who you played. So I mean, especially if tennessee can get up They can um You know they I think they they're going to have some success there with with derrick henry The offensive line has been pretty good. Just looked at all those pff grades So that's definitely a match up. I'm looking for any thoughts on the total at 52 and a half I like the over I think it correlates kind of with with and and again It's tough to take like a number that big obviously And this is kind of like where like we psych ourselves out as betters, right? So like this past weekend I was Not really firm on the total in the chief's texans game I kind of kind of lean towards the over a little bit and then like we everyone we had on the show this past weekend Like the odds makers are like we're going to need the under big time here And we're very comfortable with that and i'm like, huh well And then christians is out Texas is going to be and then I bet the under and then it's literally over by the first half Like it doesn't even make it to the second half. It's done. So it does make me a little nervous to bet a big number like this but I see Like I try to think of it like this like play out different scenarios in my head like I see if this game is played 10 times I see no scenario that exists where the chiefs don't put a number up Like the chiefs are going to get theirs on offense And I think the titans are going to be able to score as well here So like I I lean this game going over the total I have not I don't think the team totals are out yet But like I'm going to take a long look at kansas city's team total I may take a look at tennessee's team total over as well So I lean towards the over in this game. Um, I like the over 52 52 and a half Yeah, I think the only scenario in which it the there is one path to an under and that is where The titans control the ball for like 36 minutes. That could be it But that's pretty much it the titans team total right now 22 and a half the chiefs team total is 31 I think 31 is a fair number and I'd be very willing to go over on that one personally Well, I guess so here would be my question right for two guys that are Smarter than me and better math than I am. What is what would you say is the absolute minimum minimum? Number of possessions the chiefs will have in the game I mean that kind of depends on the game script, right? You know like if tennessee's up and they're gonna run like let's create a scenario where Things go really off-kilter and like tennessee controls the clock What's the minimum number of possessions that we think the chiefs will have in the game? Eight nine. I mean probably around there. Okay. Um, they're going over 31. Yeah If they get eight or nine possessions, they're going over 31 Even if it's the minimum number of possessions, I think they go over that number Yeah, I think that's probably what I would like I think that of the numbers in this game Over 31 is the one that stands out most to me. Let's move down to the Packers at the 49ers 49ers seven and a half point favorites here The total is 45 and we were talking about analytics before and analytics You know have been down on the Packers this entire year, but It seems like at least based on this number the market is accounting for that with the 49ers being seven and a half point favorites So I know we take a very Numbers-heavy approach, but nick what about for you? What has been your view of this Packers team this year because they've kind of been They're not as bad as the seahawks as far as being totally confounding, but they're pretty dark clothes So what has been your read of this Packers team? I think they suck Like suck being a relative term like they obviously don't like suck suck Now I have been on an obsessive basis obsessive watching the nfl Since 1990 so first year I watched football. My first Super Bowl was Niners over the Broncos. I'm a Giants fan So the first year I watched football Giants beat the bills 20 to 19 and I've been hooked ever since then It's like my favorite thing So like I am like in addition to the sports gambling stuff and like me doing this for a living I've been obsessed with the nfl like nfl history for my entire life I can honestly say that I think the Packers this team and maybe they'll keep shoving it up my ass You know and I'll keep being wrong. I think they're the worst team to have ever gotten a buy In the nfl postseason, I think they're the single worst team to have ever clinched a buy in the nfl postseason This is a nine and seven team Masquerading as a 14 and three team that is about to play for a right to go to the Super Bowl Now again, they keep proving me wrong because they keep covering spreads and stubbornly. I'm like, okay I'm gonna keep I'm gonna dig in and I'm hoping that I'm gonna keep being right And I think that you made a great point that like the market's kind of accounted for this a little bit Where if we look at what happened the first time these two teams played San Francisco blew them out right and they were minus three and a half in that game Where I think it stands to reason now that the number should probably be like nine in this game, right? And it's not it's seven or seven and a half So I think that the market's kind of accounted for that a little bit Which I think maybe tells you a little bit that the Packers may be the right side in this game I'm not ready to make a firm pick on this game. I think both games are really tough this weekend I thought the visual weekend was tough. I thought wildcard weekend was actually the easiest one I I lean towards San Francisco covering this number here because I look at that game And I know like you talked about bullock, etc Green Bay was coming off the buy in that game And I don't want to buy like use the excuse that all like they were rusty coming off the buy Like this team went 14 and three. It's not some slapstick group of jabronis, right? This is a team that's playing for the nfc title They got waxed coming off a buy like and they just played last week So I give San Francisco the advantage here. I think they'll be able to harass rogers Stop the run a little bit Niners will be able to do what they have to do on offense If I had to take a side that I really like in this game though, I'm going to go under I think it's like a 20 to 17 game either way. So if you made me pick a side I'll lay it with the 49ers not comfortably though And it's more so because I hate this Packers team And I feel like I have to keep going against them because I feel like at some point I'm going to be proven right or I won't the play that I feel better about though is going under Like I said, I think this is like 20 to 17 23 17 maybe like something in that range here where the game goes under the total And I know the scores I'm giving kind of indicated towards the Packers covering So I'm just like thinking up like maybe that's not like the best thing that I'm thinking right now Let's maybe let's call it like 23 14 something like that Niners cover game goes under but I feel better about the under than I do about the over Yeah, Nick I've kind of been a broken record on the show saying that I do not like this Packers team And and other places I just don't think they're very good. I mean they're I think they're nine and one now in one score games They keep holding on for dear life. I had them against I actually I think that was the week I was on your guys show I had Carolina plus the points at home They need a last second stop more more Packers black magic in that game By the way like I had Carolina that game was one McCaffrey getting started You can't make that crap up another yes win by the Packers They covered because Carolina didn't get a two-point conversion Last week they covered because the Seahawks didn't get a two-point conversion Like can we like I had this has been the way my football season's gone Like my two biggest plays this weekend financially where the Ravens Titans over I I like I Guys is this is this sour grapes because like I think about like The numbers of that game and I feel like if they played that game 99 more times and like the same crap happened in the game The game's gonna go over what like 90 of the 99 times and like the Ravens have like 570 yards They ran 92 plays and had eight possessions in Titan's territory that ended in zero points Like you have to like conjure up a scenario where crap like that happens And then I had the Seahawks plus four and a half and you'll lose by the hook at four and it's like you can't It anyway, okay I'll throw your pain man. Yes. So Yes, great. So I think green bay is fraudulent and I kind of like People are like, oh, like you hate the Packers. I feel like I've bet the Packers every single year except for this year I don't care about teams winning or losing. This team annoys me though I kind of hope the Niners vaporize them on Sunday. Yeah, no, I agree with you man And I came into this season and I think I talked about Like how I like the prospects of this Packers team and part of it is you expect airing riders to be airing riders And he just hasn't been that good last year, you know minus last week He was he was great last week And then, you know, you had hopes for the secondary that they the young secondary a lot of high draft picks And they're terrible And they're they're just not a good football team and um, and I agree with you Well, let me toss this at you guys not to like host the show, but I have a question for you guys. So Watching the Niners Vikings game this past week like San Francisco won they won comfortably the defense was really impressive They ran the ball down minnesota's throat. I did not think Jimmy Garoppolo was all that good. And I think yeah, he's volatile and that can lead to Bad things very quickly because like that that interception he threw was a very Garoppolo play that was in character The problem is that he can also hit the high end of that volatility And like the new orleans game and put four points up on the board So it's like you don't know what you're going to get with Garoppolo That makes me nervous about laying a big number in this game as San Francisco Because if you're going to be volatile There are a lot of situations where you don't cover seven and a half That would be my biggest point of concern because I I agree that that that defense is going to do well against the Packers offense I think that's that's totally fine. Um My big concern is Garoppolo. I don't think he's bad I think he's volatile and those are two very different things to me But the volatility would worry me at seven and a half Like like like james is volatile garoppolo that that's kind of like what they have He's got the upside to go into new orleans and want to shoot out against rubries But he's also got the downside to go out there and look absolutely terrible and on any given Sunday like that atlantic game Same thing. You know exactly and like, you know, there was there was a point in the season where By success rate their pass offense was like 20th In the nfl that was clearly before the new orleans game Uh, they're actually up to sixth right now when you look over to the course of the season Including all the data. So, you know, I think he has been better more recently and um, yeah, I agree Like that should definitely make you feel nervous. But I mean, there's randomness like that in every nfl game record a bit Right. Someone core back has an off game and screws you that's just that's part of the nfl Yeah, it's gonna be an interesting weekend. Uh, nick anything else you want to add in here before we let you go about, uh, conference championships Um, I don't know anything you guys anything you guys want to want to ask me anything Yeah, you talk about anything you want. So I want to throw in one thing that I forgot about earlier, man Sure, uh, your new york pizza guy, uh in detroit. There's a place called subpoena Uh, best pizza I've ever had man and even new york people say that too people from the east coast have said that as well This guy spent seven years Making dough in his kitchen aid before he opened up This pizza shop. So if you're ever in detroit, uh, or near detroit, uh, let me know We'll uh, we'll eat some pizza there. Awesome. No, I appreciate it And I've heard like people have been tweeting me like pictures of detroit pizza and I gotta say It looks pretty good. Yeah, I I think like all pizzas good like I there's like this I try to eat I'm not I'm not a vegan or a vegetarian But there's this place by me and where I live in connecticut and stanford right outside manhattan That like it's called like the cauliflower and it's all like cauliflower crust pizza And I get it with like no cheese and like vegetable toppings and stuff and like it is so good So it's like pizza's always good. It's just like it just varies like how good is it? Do you get the I'm into trying detroit pizza Do you get the oil pizza in stanford because like I was there once and I I have friends who live there and like They made me get the oil pizza and like I liked it But I felt like I felt like a bad person after eating it because it's so like greasy. Oh, no, I felt So like not only do they have oil pizza here and like I'm so happy you brought that up because it's kind of slept on They it's like hot oil pizza and they put like a big-ass pepper down on it That's like and I can handle my spice like I have like an iron cast stomach It hot it's delicious. So like but I'm trying to like Like man, like I'm like you guys don't we're on camera a lot like I can't if and I got a terrible metabolism If I'm eating that kind of pizza every day I'm walking around looking like I got stung by a horn of like my cheeks my cheeks are all puffed out So I'm trying to lean towards more like the cauliflower crust if I can during the weekend It may be indulge a little bit on the weekend, but pizza's great And uh, yeah, um, like I said, I I think I said to you guys off air to start I think regular life stuff is so more it's more interesting than sports So I don't know if I have anything else to add to you guys But if you've got anything you want to ask me I'm more than game to answer it or uh, or we can get the hell out of here It's really well, it's just an edict that you need to get luma. Nadia's whether it's this weekend in Super Bowl I would just make sure you get luma Nadia's and then we'll be good. Oh, yeah, I actually I do have something I'd like to ask you guys Okay, fire away. So again, like I am now I've been saying now for like two months Probably maybe even longer And when I do the show with Joe It's even more pronounced because I've known Joe for a long time Joe and I have been in the super contest together like we've gambled together, etc Where I am like a streaky gambler, right where I will Lose a lot, but then I'll go on like a really big hot streak and I'll win a lot also I haven't like this has literally been No hyperbole no exaggeration and I am somewhat prone to hyperbole So I feel like it's important to know that this is not hyperbole. This has been the most frustrating stretch I've had betting football in my entire life where like the hot streak hasn't come and I feel like I've been on Like I had the vikings last weekend. That's a bad bad bad Like I'm not going to argue that the viking should have covered that spread But like I lose the over in that ravens titans game. I got the texans plus 10. They're up 24 nothing They don't cover the spread like I got the seahawks, but it's like it's just one after another after another and like I can't get a break Curious if you guys have thought I felt like that either because I feel like there are a lot of people That probably feel the same way if you felt like that either a this season or be like in the past before if you've had a Year where you felt like holy crap I haven't changed my process that much and it's just like everything's going against me like I feel like I can't get a break Well, so nick, I mean, you know listeners of this show can tell you that I haven't I haven't exactly been on a heater lately So that stuff just happens and then I've also done a lot of work just to show You know people kind of expect randomness to be win loss win win loss loss in reality You know randomness looks like win win win win win loss loss loss win loss loss loss loss loss So I've written some stuff about that. I'll send it to you. Yeah And for me not from a betting perspective because betting has been normal for me this year, but for daily fantasy I was reviewing my ROI by sport across the calendar year And for NASCAR it was a smile graph because it was Daytona. I was awesome. Daytona is a great great event for me It was really bad the entire summer and then the last two weeks for my best two weeks of the year So it was like this smile and it was wretched because that's 35 weeks or 34 weeks of This ROI is going down pretty steadily and it's not rising all that quickly And NFL was kind of like it was weird But I 100% relate to that and it can last an entire season At least it did for me for NASCAR except for at the end and ironically so like There are times where like I I I love like love Season-long fantasy football. Yeah, I enjoy it more than betting. I love season Like I love daily too, but see there's nothing to me like managing a season-long team throughout an entire season and there are times where like I I'm I don't want to say like I'm like the greatest fantasy player of all time But like I'm very like like I did five season-long leagues this year I made it to at least the semis in every single one like I'm good at fantasy football Like I I follow it. I've been following it for a long time. Like I'm I'm pretty good at it So there are times where like I bust out right and like I'll lose in every title game Or like I don't make a lot of money in fantasy even though like or like I make my money back And there are times like my gambling pays for the fantasy this year for whatever reason All my season-long teams made it to the ends. I won my big high stakes league Which is a $500 entry winner take all so I won that I won more money playing daily fantasy this year than I ever had Including I had one tournament where I turned $3 into $1,000 And if not for Jason Myers missing that kick that slapped it clown at the end of the seahawks bucks game I would have I literally would have won $50,000 and I watched it all decrease with Russell Wilson points and overtime in that game That was brutal But um, so I won more money playing daily and season-long this year than I ever have before So like I made money this football season on games, right? So like it more than made up for my gambling losses and like I won money this year on football So it's just funny how that works, right? Where like I had the worst betting season that I've had probably probably literally in like seven to ten years betting football But I've had the best fantasy season I've ever had in terms of money It's just funny how that works, right? Where it's like I feel like It all kind of dovetails together, right? Like you got to have a clue about what you're talking about to be good at either And I feel like I have a clue with both and the variance on one was so far on one end positive And the variance on the other was so far on the other and negative that I feel like both are probably bound to regress to the mean Next season. I think we need to get you into best ball drafts. Uh, fandal is going to be offering best ball this year I want to do it. No, like dead serious. I've talked to like evan silva about this off air like I am dying Well, that's what you want to talk to because evan is very good at it So I want to do it. I want to do it with you guys too. Like I want to do more of this stuff Like I love this stuff. No best ball is amazing because like I couldn't use erin jones and daily fantasy for most of the year because his salary is too high Jamal williams healthy stuff like that But in daily or in best ball I already had it didn't matter that his price is going up I already had him locked in from like april and stuff and he was great. So, uh, best ball One second's launched on fandal. We're gonna get you there and then it'll be even better Great. I'm looking forward to it and like I have like that's why dynasty fantasy is fun Like I I thought erin jones was better than jamal williams from the beginning and like I own erin jones And all three of my my dynasty leagues which all include idp So like i'm a psychotic fantasy football player like I love it. No idp, but we can we can link up on the erin jones thing I will very much agree with you there. That is nick costos. Nick want to thank you so much for swinging by for today talking pizza Talking at afl and talking everything else. We appreciate it. Good luck with your bets and uh, hopefully some dfs this weekend too And we'll talk to you again soon. Well, you allow me to drop my professional wrestling like catchphrase to end to end Absolutely So I am wishing you jim you ed and all you dear listeners and viewers minimal sweats winning bets and the absolute very best of luck That's your twitter handle too, isn't it? Yeah, it's whatever. Yeah So I used to do it to real because of the last thing when I was um anchoring for cbs I used to do it. I used to say minimal sweats winning picks And then like I don't even remember who it was and like i'm pretty sharp at this crap And someone said to me like you know like you should probably make it bet so it rhymes You know what it's like that's a good idea. I'm gonna do that minimal sweats winning bets and the absolute very best That's awesome. Well, thank you so much nick. Uh, keep the sweats to a minimum this week and uh, we'll be written for you Thank you appreciate it guys. Thank you covering the future One final thank you to nick costos for swinging on by and breaking down the conference championships And had it was fun to talk to nick about non-sport stuff You do a really good job of this on your podcast, but like because we're so Time crunched during nfl season. We haven't had a lot of time to do that here I'm hoping In the off season we can do more of that because like it's just sure, you know It's it's enjoyable and I agree with what he was saying about it I know i'm gonna spend the whole off season talking about books and comedy the things that I love No, actually, we'll talk some sports too, but yeah, no, uh, that's always fun I do like to do that on my show as well And uh, I guess pretty good feedback on that too. I definitely get some eat and I was like, hey, you know, p Keep keep that last segment So I mean it's clear now why you would listen to my podcast, but it's a it's a nice little, you know People and and guests appreciated too. Oh, yeah, because like when you had me on like I actually put a lot of thought into the things You were asking me because like I've never thought about some of these things and I want to try to figure out my answer Is because I don't want to give you a bad answer, but it's also like good questions So I know when JJ was on last week. We were talking about one of the questions beforehand It was the one if you had to bring something with you to an island All right, they could fit in like a backpack and I was like Man, I don't know. Uh, and like it took me forever to try to figure that out because it's it's like a good question So, uh, we'll have to get some more non sports talking to here to as we get into the off season have or less crunch for time Yeah, absolutely A big thank you to nick for swinging on by and talking about all that stuff again Follow him on twitter at the costos. Ed and I always preach searching for the best value when betting on games Well, look no further than the new odds comparison our engineers have developed over at number fire dot com It's called odds fire. It's the premier odds comparison experience across major bookmakers in the regulated u.s Market compare odds quickly identify the best value and even examine first party fan dual data all in one place Never settle always get the best odds Check out the experience for free now on number fire or at odds fire dot com gambling problem call 1 800 Gambler, let's take a look now at covering the future here what we have for the conference championships and ed You were going to talk about the titans chase game and just what this titans offense has done Since ryan tana hill took over. What have you seen with their numbers under tanny? Yeah, absolutely. Let me just let me just preface it like let me let me give you some leans on these games I'll lean with san francisco and I'll lean with with tennessee and I'll be a little bit more Uh, I'll tell you why about tennessee, but I just feel like I've been a broken record with green bay this year And I've talked about them so much and not believe be believing in them. I just didn't want to talk about that again so Yeah, let's talk about tennessee because they obviously had a big change during the middle of the season when ryan tanny hill took over and before you know before last season and I started doing success rate like I didn't really like to do these types of Calculations where like I would just look at a part of the season Versus the part of the season because a lot of my statistics were yards per play And I kind of instinctively knew that there's a lot of randomness in that number I've since confirmed that in kind of a number of different ways Um, but we know success rate is much more sticky. So even though We're restricting the sample size like I feel a little bit more comfortable doing this Okay, so when um through the last game that mario had started The the tennessee offense wasn't good when you look at success rate and adjusted for who you played. They were 30th I was like, well, how much better could they get I kind of knew like over the course of the season when you Put both of them together that they were about League average or a little bit better than league average so what happens when uh Oh, so what happens when you just look at the games with tanny hill and then uh, so essentially the calculation is eliminating those first Uh games with with mario. Well, it's pretty good. I mean they're first In adjusted success rate. I mean that's better than baltimore better than new orleans. Now all the small sample size things Uh come into play here So, you know, take this with a grain of salt But um, when you break it down into passing and rushing they were second with passing and then fourth When running the ball, we've all seen what what darry canary can do part of that has been the big plays That he's been able to break but Um, so we'll see if that continues I went back and I looked at it again And I was like, oh, well, you know, houston didn't really have much to play for in like the season finale um I noticed sean wasin did not play in this game. Uh, I don't know how many starters they may have rested on on defense But but they they certainly didn't have anything to play for in that I took that game out when I did that, uh, tennessee often still looked pretty good But not quite as good so fourth overall and adjusted success rate second passing and fourth rushing again so I mean that you know to go from bottom five to top five Is an astounding jump when when you make that switch Kind of what you dream for as a coach when you have a quarterback that can just kind of make that transition All the caveats about small sample size exist um, but you know, it definitely, um Definitely it's one of the reasons that I would lean towards, uh, tennessee in this game I do not think they're going to win. I think kansas city is just too explosive um, but But I would definitely lean towards the side. Yeah, um, I think that What's interesting to me is Let's say about tannahill because you know i'm a mario to guy Uh, but it's what's interesting for me about them in this specific game Is how much better they are as a passing offense when derrick henry is out there now like The splits are influenced by the fact that when henry is out there and they're throwing It's probably first and second down and you're going to be efficient if you're throwing on first and second down in general But like tannahill averages like 10.8 yards per pass attempt when derrick henry is out there and it's like Seven points something when he's not out there. I don't know this what's up in front of me right now, but like It sounds pretty good though. Yeah, it's still fine. Uh, but like it's not 10.8 10.8. It's disgusting And we saw this with several teams During the divisional round it was the titans with derrick henry The cheese with damien williams and the packers of erin jones Those are three players Who have been Key assets for the passing game this year Maybe not like contributing themselves But because they force a defense to allocate resources to stopping the run So erin rogers yards per attempt when erin jones is out there goes up like Two and a half or three yards. I think it is uh, the cheese grew up like a yard when damien williams is out there and like We're seeing I think the analogy I made was it's like the nba playoffs where you tighten rotations You're not having Lashawn mccoy out there for 30 percent of the snaps, you know damien williams out there for 98 percent of the snaps and When you look at this titans offense when derrick henry is out there And ryan tannell is out there. They're a really freaking good offense Which is why i'm not going to talk about bashing their offense this week for the first time in like two months I just think that like We need to adjust To account for the personnel they're going to use this weekend and the personal they use when derrick henry is out there Is a pretty efficient offense Yeah, absolutely. Uh, and uh, I think you know, I think a lot depends on how Uh, this game goes, you know, if tennessee can get a lead They're gonna end up running henry more Kansas city like I mentioned has the worst rush defense by success rate adjuster for for who you've played So, you know, and then I mean, yes, kansas city is going to come back, but Yeah, with with that offense, but um, yeah, well, so I mean, I think the game script really matters Yeah, I think that if you're looking for a broadly available number this week My favorite one is uh, the only talk about nick where going over on the team total on the chiefs at 31 points But over on fandals sportsbook for those of you can bet there You can bet on which players will lead the conference championship weekend in various categories and One of them you can bet is who will lead the week in receiving yardage and right now Tyria kill is plus 650 on that and At that number i'm happily going to take tyria kill because he didn't do a whole lot last week He hasn't done a whole lot the second half of the year. It was really the travis kelti show last week, but overall The workload for tyrie kill has been awesome this year when he's been healthy The chiefs have had seven games this year We're all three of mahomes hill and semi walkins have been fully healthy and in those games Hill has 23.5 percent of the chief's overall targets, which is it's an okay number But he has 44 percent of their deep targets and we know that mahomes can convert on those deep targets That's a really big number if we're looking at we talked about air yards with bob stol And if you look at the air yards this weekend if you're projecting air yards There's only one guy this weekend who i think you can project similar air yardage to and that's davante adams But adams is four to one while hill is plus 650 So if i had to pick straight up i would favor davante adams to lead this week in receiving But that's a pretty decent gap in their odds with adams at four and hill at six at 650 When the chiefs played the titans in week 10 hill had 19 targets He had 157 receiving yards I am not expecting to duplicate that and as mentioned with nick you can't look too much Into individual games, but when you look at the personnel for tennessee Their biggest weakness is their corners adory jackson's crazy fast. He's really really fast He will be on tyrie kill But that doesn't matter tyrie kill is still the better player He's going to emerge victorious more often than not so There aren't a ton of guys on this weekend who i would expect rack up a bunch of receiving yardage The 49ers are very run heavy as are the titans I'm not sure if the packers offense moved the ball all that effectively which lowers me on davante adams So your field of players who could win this prop I think it's pretty small and when you get that With a guy who could go for a buck 50 like tyrie kill I think that it's pretty intriguing So I want tyrie kill a plus 650 to lead the weekend in receiving yardage I think it's just a good number That's not available though. I do like the the chief's over 31 from a team total perspective, but I think tyrie kill is a potential to go nuts here playing daily fantasy Pretty hard for me not to go with tyrie kill any final thoughts for you on the conference championships I think this should be a pretty fun weekend. I'm hoping the games are tighter What the spreads are saying, but I think there is at least the potential for that Oh, for sure. I definitely think there is you know more so More so in that that first afc game But yeah, of course, I mean, it's going to be some good football and uh, yeah Then we'll get two teams and a loss for the Super Bowl I hope we get division around Rodgers again just because When he's on he is insanely fun to watch He's not lamar or mohomes from a fun perspective But like his good throws Are so far so I hope we get erin rogers good erin rogers I just don't want to I just don't want to be financially tied to having that happen. Exactly. I mean, it's going to be tough I mean the the defense of the seahawks versus the Niners It's a completely different ballgame Especially when you're at home against a bad seahawks defense going on the road now to face the 49ers So we'll see how things turn out, but it should be a pretty fun weekend Anything for you going on over at the power rank for this week Yeah at bob stole on football analytics show had a great conversation talked about the conference championship games and Yeah, a lot of that was inspired by the things he told us on this show And we continue to talk about air yards and and madden ratings and it was a lot of fun Yeah, I love that. Yes, that too. It's uh, I've thought about that a lot since we talked about with the madden rating stuff And it's still Really fascinating to me So find that by searching for the football analytics show and find ed's work over at the power rank dot com You can find him on twitter at the power rank. I am at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast once again a big Thank you guys out to nick costos for swinging by for today find him on twitter at the costos and find His work on you better you bet and over on sports illustrated Thank you as always to calvin theobald our video producer for keeping us on the air here as always Thank you cal and thank you to everyone for tuning in for this conference championship episode back at you next week Talk probably some basketball. I would guess and also a quick a little sneak peek at the super bowl Thank you all for tuning in. Good luck with your bets this weekend. We'll talk to you again next week This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network