 The following is a presentation of TFNN Trading Hour with your host David White. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-445-1044. Now David White. And welcome all to another exciting edition of the Power Trading Hour with me your humble lovable and squeezibly soft host as always we love to come to you at this time the following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. well we're off nine points although we did get out 2900 on the S&P cash still off 150 on the Dow let me update that just to make sure sometimes that one doesn't update no it's updated 150 on the Dow that's a negative negatory big what was that CB things wouldn't big daddy big something we'll have to think about it anyway off 150 on the Dow 30 Nasdaq still off 24 Russell's up three and a half and of course there's always that thing where anytime we get a little bit of news thinking the trade deal isn't going to be there and of course you got the kids in the back seat going are we there yet are we there yet are we there it's going to take a while for this thing to get done it's not happening overnight no matter what anybody says I understand the yellow German journalism on the major cable channels has to kind of carry it because that's you know you got 24 hours you got to fill it with something and they had to give up on the occlusion thing so now maybe they can get another jet crash like ML what was that the one over there something else they're going to get something else that they can beat like a dead horse but until then they're going to go round and round and round on this stuff and doesn't make it happen any quicker maybe even keeps it from happening for a little later maybe because all the attention if it probably didn't have any attention probably like these whack jobs that go out and shoot up places they probably wouldn't have as many anyway and I'll get off my soapbox although I like being on it I've actually never seen a box that was one I could stand on that contained soap but maybe maybe someday I will see one anyway we're waiting again for earnings out after the bell so we'll talk about that today really want to look at what the volume is doing and again we went lower we've got significantly better volume for a couple of times lower we've got about 4.6 billion shares as we start the show this is a kind of about where the volume should be my guess is that we're going to see continued selling until we get through some of these bigger IPOs they need to sell shares now to raise cash for shares into next week so you know if you're a dog haven't performed you're probably for sale if you have been running hot lately and they're probably not the first ones that are going to sell they're going to sell the dogs at least right now because they don't have to sitting like the stock market's already down 10 or 15% and then they don't want to sell they don't want to sell their losers they want to hold on to them and sell their winners that's a little different than this but we've got Uber coming up on the 10th we've got a handful of other IPOs I think when I saw it there was maybe 10 or 12 billion dollars of IPOs stacked up I don't know how many of those are actually going to make it to market been trying to keep an eye on it but they're pretty close lipped when things aren't going real great if they're oversubscribed they're yelling and screaming out on the street corner but you know Uber had to be dropped down by 20-25% to get people to say enough people to say okay that they could go out and push for the rest but again it's still a lot of money that money's got to come from somewhere and right now kind of going to come from selling probably maybe half or maybe even more it's going to come from selling stocks that probably you know if you're going to get rid of a dog this is probably a good time to do it and get maybe a faster horse and an IPO maybe it'll move and make your numbers look a little bit better if you're a hedge fund manager yeah just like Brexit yeah it's going to happen when it happens I just don't understand the whole trying to avoid it kind of thing why not just get out in front of it but you know I guess that's why I'm not a politician I just couldn't stand there and do nothing but that's me okay so oh I was going to go back to a few other things that want to look at of course we saw the dollar spike it's up only about nine cents today 9750 it's still you know yesterday and the day before look like you could get the kind of power to go hit a hundred looks to me like the Treasury Department and the government the bankers are all in here trying to keep the dollar from moving too quickly but it certainly looks like now to me that is more than likely in this higher trading range and above 97 now that we might slip all the way to par 100 on the dollar index kind of a psychological thing more than anything else so what else do we have going on looking at the you know we've got some things that were pretty horrible we got some earnings from last night and like I said we'll talk about earnings after the belt tonight we'll do a little history and we'll get into all of that one of my favorite patterns is starting to show show up in earnest we're going to go through as many of those as we can today also but first we got to do a little history that's what it is good buddy I couldn't remember I thought it was big buddy you never know on this day in history in 1972 near after nearly five decades as director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation J. Edgar Hoover dies leaving a powerful government agency without the administrator who've been largely responsible for his existence of shape Hoover came to the forefront of the federal law enforcement during the so-called Red Scare of 19 19 and 20 God we need him back now we got a bunch of filthy reds back just a little bit of tongue-in-cheek there folks but not too much with all good humor there's a bit of truth in it the former librarian set up a card index system listing every radical leader organization publication in the United States and by 1921 headed mass some 450,000 files and yeah you wonder if how all those FBI files ended up in the White House and people and politics that's the problem with the FBI is that sometimes it's used for political means to an end he certainly was one of those folks had a lot of blood on his hands for Martin Luther King to the the Kennedy brothers boy did he have some stuff on them man if you ever read about that I'll turn your hair white and I like my hair the color it is on this day in 1972 the kingmaker the guy that knew all the palace secrets died and people have been trying to be like him since then we'll be back after this the Taz profile scanner is the most revolutionary piece of trading software that you will ever try wouldn't you like to approach the markets with confidence as you begin your trading day it's likely that you'll be faced with lots of decisions in order to make the best decision the first thing you'll need is a strategy that will help you minimize your risks whether we're in a bull or bear market a good strategy is to have the tools needed to help you scan and analyze the markets before you trade the Taz profile scanner instantly scans and filters over 2,500 global financial markets such as stocks ETFs commodity futures and forex headed by Steve doll president of Taz market profile the Taz profile scanner understands that in today's technological world the use of top flight software applications automated 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TFNN.com now and experience all the upgrades TFNN.com educating investors call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618 and we're off five points on the S&P cash down 120 on the Dow Nasdaq's now down off about 13 so getting a little bit better we can't allow this market to sell off even if you're only going to make one thin dime you've got to buy the dip get it by the dip as I as I've been talking there's a pattern that I watch for that generally tells the end of a big continuing market hire and that is Joe Denapoli's double repo pattern I his research from using some of the earliest PCs which was actually a CPM machine when I talked to him very enlightening how he did a lot of this stuff but it's are there better things there kind of is the I've got my machine learning models but probably the best way to show it and for people to do it at home is this and that is generally you have something like a three by three displaced moving average which is just three days put off into the future so if we took the last at the close today we took the last three days and averaged them and put them out three days that would give kind of a line that goes out past today you can actually when you see it you can see the three days here as I'm pointing to it and you know kind of the ballistic curve there's nothing magic about moving averages and I I hate to even bring this up sometimes because I really kind of despise moving averages it's just that the shorter moving averages do kind of make a ballistic curve that you can trade against nothing magic about it and certainly if you start doing the longer moving averages you'll see how the longer that they go out kind of the exact same thing as the longer the forecast for the weather it becomes more and more meaningless I guess that's why the short ones at least have a little bit of validity but they when you get into this kind of pattern it does kind of show you that if you continue to get light volume at highs it does make a very good pattern anyway you get your baseline and that is from the three by three displaced moving average or a nine by a nine day moving average something kind of short in fact not a lot of difference point is six and nine day moving average when you actually go back and test it by the way I could use shorter ones but kind of the same thing they're not that different what you are looking for is 10 to 15 days above moving average a little bit below it a handful of days below it above it and then a decidedly significant candle that shows you that you've got a reversal at least short-term reversal the next close underneath that line is the signal that that stock or market is tight as a top out we got that or a little bit today and some of the ones that we're looking at I'm watching this one right now is avnet AVT it's a distributor of electronic components I'm gonna do as many of these as I can maybe I'll run out we'll get to some of the other stuff didn't really know how long I had let's see what else we have out here car part CP RT is another good one now what you really want is a more significant swing that I'm showing in this one and that's why I showed that AVT one first much better looking much better swing but here's another one that this is what I like to see in the Equifax you've got it great you've got 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 days above it you go a handful of days below it you get like three days above it yesterday you get the reversal back underneath it and as long as it stays underneath that you know you've got a good chance if the market turns sour to make some big dough the projection for the double repo is back where it started so on Equifax if this continues and then accelerates we get a little volume maybe Monday Tuesday next week because of course we're still in quote quote fun buying and we're lower which is never a good signal in the market yesterday today if you can't rally I'm gonna say 20 points now in the S&P cash on a day during fun buying the second of the month there is some weakness to it anyway you got your close below it yesterday continuation today and you kind of just let that one show you what happens but generally the way that these things work is they kind of start off slow and then get fairly steep fairly quickly but that would be a nice trade 125 issues where you got your signal yesterday that would take you back to where this thing started which is about 110 not the end of the world but fairly nice trade options are fairly cheap fairly interesting and of course you got the option of hitting the next couple of days where we actually start the sell-off and had major sell-offs in May but generally start about the fifth so we're maybe just a little early and that I got a whole bunch of them last night my scans kind of also tells you something but we're close but we may still have a couple of days and that may be with fun buying over let's see if we got anything else here on these are a handful of ones I wanted to see how they did I want one here here's another good one global telecom and technology DG TT is the symbol on this one so in fact I want to do this I'm going to flip this over for you people who do not have art of timing trade charts maybe you do have something that shows a three by three displaced moving but if you not you can kind of get a nine-day moving average and it's kind of the same thing pretty close actually a little bit smoother so sometimes your entry into these is just a little bit later but this is exactly what you're looking for starting on the 29th of last of actually March you got one two three four five six seven eight nine ten eleven twelve thirteen fourteen you get the reversal candle up there that's a huge bearish engulfing of the day before you come back underneath it you stay underneath it for four days you pop back above it you don't get any kind of significant volume as you do this is on the 26th of this month you get four days above it you get kind of a reversal yesterday without a lot of volume and generally this is a pattern that does develop without a lot of push either higher or lower until you close back below this day so there's this is I've seen this work so many times at the end of big runs and stocks that I'm always watching for it even though if it only happens every once a year even once every two years I continue to look at it happens a great deal more in commodities but it does in the stock market not exactly sure why but anyway this one's right at that level today but if you continue to kind of see this curve move lower is interesting but this takes you back at about 41 bucks to about 34 bucks where this actually started back on the 29th of March we'll do a couple more of these we'll go into summer earnings after the bell down five on the SP down 122 on the Dow NASDAQ off 14 Russell just up one and a quarter now crude finally cracked down two bucks the path of least resistance is David White's daily trading newsletter and if you're looking for active trading ideas then now's a perfect time for a 30 day free trial to this powerful daily trading advisory service David uses his years of trading experience to offer his subscribers his trading ideas each morning in his path of least resistance newsletter using a combination of equity trades along with options David keeps his subscribers up to date with all pertinent market information with intraday afternoon updates when warranted don't miss out on this great chance to get a 30 day free trial to David's daily newsletter the path of least resistance with no obligation to pay anything David has been delivering solid recommendations for his subscribers recently and if you'd like to see the type of newsletter he delivers every morning then visit the front page of TFNN and you'll find the path of least resistance under trading newsletters for all the details and to start your 30 day free trial today log on to TFNN dot com now hi folks 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people in the coasts that are very trendy like that and inner out burger and stuff like that and we're kind of normal people down here in Clearwater Florida we don't cotton to those high-priced burger places United States Steel which of course the mob was bigger than if you listen to Hyman Ross and the Godfather to Planet Fitness Expedia Ariston Network Skyworks Solutions Fortnet I think Skyworks going to be important today because it's going to tell us about what they're thinking going forward probably one of the better companies to think about what the future of 5g is going to be and what they say in their earnings call tonight Tableau software a symbol on that is data first a solar I looked at that one FSLR and then we'll get back to our double repose our Eddie in action yeah doesn't look good does it back to maybe 58 on this one there's a lot of talk about spending money on green energy projects but I don't think that there's really the kind of appetite for that in the Senate may all the wishful thinkers may be in the house push on it a bit but I don't see where there are a lot of those green incentives are probably going to go through for either electric vehicles or some of the other fly-by-night idea like solar power that we've had you know money into for years still hasn't come up with any solution that's actually economically viable yet I know people don't like it when I say that but I guess you got to be a financial realist if you're gonna be a trader can't be a wishful thinker monster beverage corporation go daddy Viking herbal life nutrition El Poco loco and Makato Libre Beezer Homes CBS anything else out there and not that much and then of course tomorrow morning let's go ahead get down to that on Friday American Tower another company I'm gonna be interested in for telling us about what 5g or 10s for them got to be a lot more smaller antennas we've got some down here that they've been putting up in this area I've talked about it on the Tech Insider half hour with Tom O'Brien a few times we've got some that are just down the street from my house Johnson outdoors CBOE global markets noble energy so I don't think there's anything really that could move the market tomorrow American Tower would be just interesting in that sector probably a little pin action with Qualcomm going on in that too on Monday we get back in the morning with Cisco Bosch and Loam Tyson foods see a lot that moves this Monday morning either so we'll get back to this already in progress am I still there there we go give me call at 877-927-6648 especially if you have any questions about double repo patterns anyway one that's kind of setting up here that you want to watch for is for solar again we're gonna go do another one but this is the first day underneath after having about 10 to 15 days above it the couple below it couple above it and then the next move net next move down underneath that nine day moving average or three by three is when these things start falling apart this one probably does have fairly decent support at 57 guide wire software good another good indication of one that just really is going to close today underneath that uptrend line again you want a couple days below it couple days back above it and then the next close below it is when you pull the rip cord and you start getting the real destruction there is one else I wanted to look at here because we got a bunch of these that just dipped underneath yesterday he I kind of a similar thing this is hi-co the one I wanted to look at that I thought was the most important in all this bunch was the SMP equal weight ETF RSP you certainly I had a handful of days above and below and now yesterday and the confirming one today suggests that there will be pressure on the SMP for a while the target would be where this thing actually started back up above it and that's back to about 103 50 on the RSP are my charts working no the that's what I was going to say the com thing blew up here so let's do this boom let's close that see if I can't restart it and see whether or not it works again we can get everybody on it okay hey hopefully everybody can see it again I'm back in the den everybody can get me hooked back up and show these charts we only got about a minute left in the segment anyway the equal weight ETF on the close below with a reversal candle yesterday and today continuing to get up there right to that nine-day and then fail and come back down to 107 suggests that you will have a fairly good shot at seeing this back at about 104 and 104 103 50 back in that range on the SMP again that may take a little bit this may be one of the slow rolls at the highs but a combination of going into the summertime the IPOs coming in and sucking all the oxygen out of the rest of the market being stuck right at the highs without being able to get a trade deal that's promised by the yellow media yellow journalists yellow newspapers they were yellow that's what I remember the yellow journalists always saying it's tomorrow and yeah I guess there's probably a little bit too much from the White House about talking about it too I always wait like to see the cake when it comes out of the oven I don't want to hear about it cooking really that's just me anyway you can tell me why I'm all wet by giving me a call at 877-927-6648 emailing me at path at tfnn.com or putting it in the no sound in the den what we'll get all those tech issues fixed during the break and we will get back on it if you're in the CD market and looking for a secure investment the tiger first mortgage program may work for you the security for these first mortgages are building lots in the tax opportunity zone in st. Petersburg Florida the tax act of 2018 set up tax free zones across the country where you can build and hold for 10 years and pay no tax on the profits which makes these lots valuable the investment is anywhere from 30,000 to 75,000 the interest paid is 7% yearly paid on a monthly basis according to bankrate.com the best rate for a four-year CD in the country as of February 20th is 3.1% a $50,000 investment at a normal four-year CD rate of 3.1% would give you income of 1550 per year or 6200 over the four-year period that same $50,000 investment in the tiger first mortgage program would give you 3,500 per year or 14,000 over the four years what should you prefer 6200 or 14,000 of interest on your investment if you'd like more information about the tiger first mortgage program you can call me at 877-518-9190 that's 877-518-9190 if you haven't checked out the newsletters page of TFNN.com what are you waiting for all of the TFNN newsletters are informative up-to-date affordable and must have for every trader looking to gain a competitive informational edge in today's markets TFNN newsletters cover every aspect of the markets to offer you the very latest in market news plus new subscribers get to test drive our newsletters risk-free for 30 days from all aspects of the markets including stocks bonds metals commodities and tech there's a newsletter to fit your needs exclusively from TFNN stay informed each day you trade and get the competitive edge that will help you stay ahead of the game visit our newsletters page by going to TFNN.com and click the newsletters button near the top of the page TFNN.com educating investors will the S&P 500 continue to climb for bold trades on US large cap stocks in either direction trade SPXL, SPUU or SPXS directions daily S&P 500 bull and bear leveraged ETFs direction leveraged ETFs an investor should carefully consider a funds investment objective risks charges and expenses before investing a funds prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a funds prospectus and summary prospectus call 866-476-7523 or visit direction investments.com a funds prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor for side fund services LLC don't forget you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to TFNN.com then hit watch Tiger TV that's TFNN.com then hit watch Tiger TV for the latest market information and just getting something email off right there as we go. Okay, anyway, we were talking about RIDEX again, not a monster move back up here and given all things I'd probably be a little bit more bullish but I just have seen the markets top out with IPOs sucking so much money out of the market. Fairly quickly and of course being up here on no volume doesn't make me feel real warm and fuzzy as we got here. Let's see what else we have someone wants me to look at IBM. And yeah, you just had your drop for earnings on there. You know, you got one big gap up, you got another big gap down. I don't know this thing kind of gappy. I kind of stay away from those. But I don't think there's a whole lot in IBM for probably a couple of years and that's problematic. They're basically putting all of their eggs in one basket and that is quantum computers and Mr. Shor and his algorithm are all about what IBM is going to be in the future. Shor's algorithm is is what's really going to make machine not machine but make quantum computing work. That's basically what IBM is now put their entire future and bet on. Probably not a bad bet. It's just going to take years to come to fruition. But Shor's algorithm is making a guess. At you make a guess and you know, it's probably not going to be right. But then you can make a much better guess on the next time around, not just randomly make guesses, but a very clever algorithm that shortens the time frame down sometimes millions of times. So it can take a very complex problem and make it almost instantaneous on a quantum computer when those do come out. But I just I'm not feeling it. You know, they're probably going to sell a few to the NSA right off the bat is literally they will be able to crack everything that went through. And there's a long precedent for that. Of course, the NSA built that giant facility to save everything. For years when I put it up a year and a half ago, two years, something like that. I mean, this thing's a monster up there in Wyoming or somewhere out in the middle of nowhere. And one of the reasons why Western Digital and Seagate still had some good years in the last couple of years because that one place bought every hard drive damn near that they could make. Now, of course, they're busy filling those things up. But after the Second World War, same thing, even if they couldn't break it, they kept it and then they would break it later. And that's how they found out we had so many filthy vile traders. You can look up the vanilla. It's a banana papers. For that, is that right? I think it is. Or is that the nuclear explosion south of South Africa? I'll have to remember. Utah, thank you in 2014. Well, I think it didn't get finished until 2016. I think they actually they had that up there. Anyway, I'm pretty sure that the history of the CIA and the NSA has been to save literally everything because you'd never know when you go back and find those things and you can break them almost instantly, how many traders and spies you will find in your midst in those papers. And yeah, OK, to what else do we have? Take a look at some other stuff out here. GLD want to take a quick look at it. Yeah, it just looked like some market gas from the Fed speech yesterday. GLD still above 120, which doesn't really change anything over the last couple of days other than it's kind of hanging around in this territory. Adobe is one of the stocks that I think has given the first one of the first signals. It went up on a DBE, right, a DBE. OK, went up on no volume for a while. I mean, the last day of volume was a gap down on earnings and they still pushed it up. They guided down and everybody on the street said it's still going to the moon. I always wonder about people that when the people of the company tell you that it's not just going to be bad, but it's going to be horrible. And they keep on saying that they're oh, they're just saying bagging. They're just telling us that so that we won't put the earnings estimates up and they put them up anyway. I don't they just kind of acting asking for a train wreck? I think that's kind of what's happening in Adobe. They're probably not that bad, but certainly looks like it could get back in that two hundred and sixty dollar range with a issue here. Now, again, we're back at the point where this is going to be the first real day in a while that we're going to close under a nine day or three by three day moving average and then you probably get a couple of days below it. Couple of days above it, maybe a spike back to maybe two eighty five or something in the first couple of days the next week that also shows a giant reversal. I mean, you had many signs here in Adobe. The first one was this doji on the 29th of April and then the huge bearing and bearish and golfing that we had yesterday on this. Now, there wasn't a lot of volume and that's why I'm saying at the very beginning of these patterns in this double repo that signal a lot of tops in the market that you don't get it right off the bat. These things do pop back above briefly with no energy. Then the next big the next close underneath it. That's when you want to pull the trigger. So you have to wait. And that's a good pattern because it makes you wait. And if you get in early, then you get stopped out and then you kind of feeling bad and your mind isn't right. This one kind of makes you wait for it. And sometimes you have to pay up a little bit more. But a lot of times it's well worth it. And just watching how many of these stocks do it, I think it's going to be important. By sect F I X S F I X. It's fixed. Is that what this is? Yeah, stitch fix. A recent IPO, it hadn't been out here that long. Let's see if I can get exactly when is a range of apparel shoes, accessories through its website. Mobile app offers denim dresses, bosses, shirts, shoes, jewelry and handbags for men and women. This used to be known as the rack habit, changed its name to Stitch Fix in 2011. Yeah, they haven't been around that long. Headquarters in San Francisco. Yeah, I don't know if there's a whole lot to say about this. Let's go back and look at the IPO date. We'll be back in a minute. We'll wrap up the show with this and anything else you get in. I got a couple of emails here, so we will get into those. I'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life. It's the most common trait that we tigers and tigers share. If you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money, let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done, which is how to time the markets. 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Also a special guest on CNBC. Tom will bisect and dissect the markets. The Tom O'Brien Show, next on TFNN. And I got an email that just came in. And a couple others will try to get them all taken care of. We're off about 12 points on the S&P cash, like I said. I think they're going to do the best they can to make a good retreat, not just all yell, throw their arms up and run, get shot in the back. They're going to try to hang this up as long as they can. Again, those IPOs coming through probably the big one through the 10th. So I think we're going to continue to see kind of weakness based on selling to get cash up for some of those. And again, if you can't rally on the second day of the month, you're in big trouble because that is the best that fund money can do. Crude oil cracking probably has a lot to with it. Energy is about 30 percent correlated to the market. So always a big deal. And a lot of stocks looking like they're rolling, like I said, like Adobe earlier, a question about Yeti holdings, which is a company that makes coolers, very expensive coolers. You know, I kind of wonder if they're made with diamonds or gold and silver, anything because they are massively expensive. But apparently they're very good, but they're a lot of knockoffs. They're probably 90 percent as good for 25 percent of the price, maybe around there. And what always disturbs me is that these kind of companies like GoPro, where you get a camera, I've got one for $30 that works as good as a $200 GoPro. Maybe 90 percent is good, right? But is it worth five times more, especially for something you might destroy? I mean, this isn't something you're going to be keeping in a phone box. So I'm always worried about companies that can actually get moved out fairly quickly. Again, thanks for the email from Pete about Yeti. Take a look at that one. Looks like a major failure. And of course, if you what you want to be looking for is the lock up period. And what was the lock update? 423. Surprise, surprise, surprise. Don't look high.