 I think Democrats need to stop fretting, need to stop looking at this as a warning and look at it as a wake-up call to organize, to mobilize, to register people, to talk about the accomplishments of this administration. If you want to beat Donald Trump, stop clutching your pearls and get to work. You just heard Anna Navarro's response to Democrats concerned about new polling which indicates that Biden is in serious danger of losing to Donald Trump. Now even though she was probably the most dismissive, her response was emblematic of basically everyone else on the panel with one exception. Now we're going to come back to the view in a moment, but first I do want to look at these polls that confirm Biden is indeed in serious danger. On Sunday, a poll conducted by Sienna College in the New York Times found that Trump is ahead in five out of six swing states. Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and in the only swing state where Biden is ahead in Wisconsin, he's still polling within the margin of error. Now when you look at the crosstabs, voters trust Trump more on the economy by 22 points, immigration and national security by 12 points, and even Israel-Palestine by 11 points which is shocking considering the fact that a data for progress poll conducted in mid-October found that 66% of voters support a ceasefire including 57% of independents and 56% of Republicans. Which suggests that voters think Trump will be less militaristic than Biden when it comes to Israel, which is not the case obviously. They're both bad, with Trump probably being worse, but it just goes to show you how badly Biden's image is among voters, with them only trusting him more on abortion and democracy by 9 and 3 points respectively. So if voters barely trust you more on democracy, trust you more than the guy who's been indicted on 91 counts for trying to stage a coup, you're in trouble, you're in trouble, and I don't know how else to put it. Now this New York Times poll does not seem to be an outlier because in October Gallup Poll found that Biden's support among Democrats dropped 11 points within a single month, and the numbers in Michigan are in line with findings from a poll by the Arab American Institute which found that Biden's support among Arab Americans plummeted to 17% after 59% of them supported him in 2020. And the poll commissioned by Detroit Action got the same result, with only 16% of Muslim Americans saying that they'd vote for Biden again, with two-thirds saying that they'd vote against him. Now the same poll found that a majority of Michigan Democrats support a ceasefire in Gaza, and 92% of Arab Americans and 75% of voters under 30 also support a ceasefire. But we're not done yet because the CBS News poll finds that a majority of likely voters believe that Trump's level of support for Israel would be about right compared to Biden's. And the same respondents also believe that having Biden as president would increase the chance of war by 10 points, and having Trump as president would increase international peace and stability by 16 points, holy shit this is bad. Now Biden's also doing poorly on the economy in this poll as well, voters believe that the economic policies of Biden and Trump would disproportionately favor the wealthy, but a plurality of voters think that Trump's economic policies would be better for their own personal finances. In other words, if Biden doesn't immediately reverse course, he is going to lose to Donald Trump next year, a reality that his team is very much aware of. In fact, his campaign manager admitted that this is going to be a very close race, and behind the scenes, they are shitting themselves with White House aides privately admitting things have never been worse for Biden, despite delusionally thinking that they are somehow handling Israel's bombing campaign in Gaza well. Now this kind of speaks to the hubris of the administration because HuffPost reports that state department officials actually feel like their expertise is not being considered by the Biden administration, and we know they're aware that their support for Israel's genocide in Gaza is an optics nightmare because they've warned Israel that public support is quickly eroding, but rather than calling for an end to their bombing, they are comically considering smaller bombs as a solution. So they know that they're in trouble. They're very well aware of the fact that they are hemorrhaging support, especially now because of his complicity with Israel's genocide in Gaza, but they still think that they can turn the ship around within a year, and they also seemingly believe that voters are going to forget about his complicity with genocide in a year. And look, they might be right about that. Voters are stupid, they're uninformed, and they have short term memories, but it's a really dangerous game to play when democracy is at stake. Trump is reportedly mulling a plan to invoke the insurrection act on day one in order to violently squash any inevitable protests that occur in response to his reelection. And it's an idea that's cooked up by the same people who brought us Project 2025, a dangerous plan to seize control of the administrative state and dismantle democracy. And he also suggested that he would bring back the Muslim ban and expel foreign nationals who, quote, support Hamas, i.e. anyone who criticizes Israel or advocates for Palestinian human rights. So the situation is incredibly bleak. Democracy is at stake, lives are literally at stake. But that is a chance Biden is willing to take. It's a gamble that he's willing to make because he's not going to budge. So you're probably thinking, well, you know, why not primary him? Well, here's the thing. He's already being primaried. The media doesn't cover his main primary opponent, Mary Ann Williamson. And here's the thing about a primary, even though Democrats are disillusioned with Biden and they generally don't want to see a matchup between him and Trump. When you look at polls showing head to head primary challenges, the same Democratic Party primary voters who are apparently disillusioned with Biden would vote for him again in almost every head to head matchup. The only person who would beat Biden in a primary is George W. Bush's bestie, Michelle Obama, even though she has repeatedly stated that she has no interest in running ever. But if you remove Biden from the equation, then things do get a little bit more clear. So let's go back to the Siena College poll that's making all the headlines. As you can see, a named alternative does not fair well because the choices just aren't great when it comes to Democratic Party presidential contenders. But an unnamed generic Democrat has an eight point advantage against Donald Trump, which indicates that voters are not happy with Biden and they're also not happy with the choices that the Democratic Party is presenting. It's not just the neoliberals, it's progressives too. They don't seem enthusiastic about a Bernie Sanders run again. I'm not either admittedly or AOC. They just, they want someone new. That's what these polls indicate. And that tells us that at this point in time, our chances of defeating Trump would increase by eight points if Biden was out of the equation. But yet he is willing to risk American democracy to selfishly cling to power even though he knows the chances of him losing are high. Now thankfully, some Democratic Party elites across the political spectrum are saying what is kind of hard to say, what they don't want to say, what's been taboo for Democratic Party loyalists to say, they are gently trying to nudge Biden into dropping out as soon as possible so other Democrats can cobble together a quick primary campaign before the primaries take place in three months from now. Let's talk about Gaza, Congress, but how much damage is Joe Biden's support for Israel doing to the Democratic base? And how much is that going to cost him in places like Michigan with younger voters, Arab-American voters in a key battleground state, which thanks to that new poll from the times, we already know he's struggling in even before this war. Could this war cost him reelection? Yes, it could. And let me just be very clear. It's one thing to support Israel, which the US has always done and will continue to do. It's another thing to never hold Israel accountable for their behavior, whether it's related to the occupation, the open air prison at is Gaza, or the war crimes that are taking place right now during this siege. But I will tell you, this is the first time, Jen, that I have felt like the 2024 election is in great trouble for the president and for our Democratic control, which is essential to moving forward because these young people, Muslim-Americans, Arab-Americans, but also young people, see this conflict as a moral conflict and a moral crisis. And they are not going to be brought back to the table easily if we do not address this. When elected Democrats are sounding the alarm, it would be wise for Biden to listen to members of his own party. Now, liberals will probably dismiss the criticism from Jayapal and Bowman because they're progressive. And what progressives say really has no standing when it comes to the centrists and conservatives within the Democratic Party. But unfortunately for them, it's not just the progressives. It's not just the far left who's speaking out against the Biden's chances. It's some of Biden's biggest boosters in 2020. Let's assume the election was November the third of this year. And they said the candidates of Joe Biden, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican, Joe Manson, and Larry Hogan, no labels in Cornel West. Trump would be a betting favorite, all right? And so somebody better wake the fuck up. This is a race about democracy and the state of our democracy and the survival of our democracy. And that's the threat on the other side here. And I know how deeply the president feels about that. So he just has to ask himself, is this the best path? I suspect that he will say yes. But time is fleeting here and this is probably the last moment for him to do that check. And it's probably good if he does. That right there is very telling to me. When you have David Axelrod and James fucking Carville sounding the alarm, that's when you know things are serious. But there's an effort right now to downplay and minimize these warning signs. And it behoove all of us to not bury our heads in the sand. Yes, it's still early and a lot can change between now and November of 2024. But it's possible that things don't change enough to stop Trump from winning. And that would be obviously very bad. I don't have to explain to liberals why Trump winning would be a disaster for American democracy and a lot of people. Now early polls in 2016 showed that Bernie Sanders was also much more electable against Trump than Hillary Clinton. And even though he had a double digit lead against Trump in hypothetical matchups, Democratic elites ignored the warning signs and insisted that Hillary Clinton was the safest bet. I mean, it kind of feels like a repeat of 2016, albeit with Biden, where everybody's saying, ignore the polls, trust me, Biden is the best bet. He's the safest chance of beating Trump. Don't worry about Trump. It just, it feels like deja vu. It feels like there's a disaster straight ahead and we're just, we're moonwalking into it. It's just so frustrating. Now, thankfully, more people this time are pointing out the red flags because how could you not learn from 2016 after everyone said Hillary would definitely win and she didn't. But there's still a lot of people, mostly in media who are not learning from the mistakes that everyone made in 2016. One example, of course, is the view, the subject of this video. Now, as you saw, Anna Navarro told people like David Axelrod to stop clutching his pearls and get to work for Biden, as if Biden's potential failure won't be because of him. It'll be because of voters or people like Axelrod who didn't get to work for Biden. I mean, it doesn't really work that way, but regardless, let's listen to more of her commentary and their commentary in particular because as you're gonna see, most of them kind of express the same sentiment. Well, you know how I feel about polls because I just feel like, you know, you're polling 4,000 people in a place and you can't tell me that's half the nation. All you can tell me is that, you know, we poll 4,000 people and that's how they felt. So I always like to make sure that we're clear on polls because remember last time we checked Paul, they had Hillary Clinton winning. Look, I think people are not quite laser focused on politics the way we may be on a daily basis. Yet they're going to get there. Nobody has laid a finger on Trump because the Republican primary has been like all these minions fighting amongst themselves who can even tell them apart at this point and it doesn't matter. There's going to be a choice between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, Axelrod says, this is the last time. No, actually that ship has sailed. Like the deadline to get on the ballot for Nevada was two weeks ago. There are deadlines that you need to meet in order to be on the ballot and those deadlines are passing or gone. And so this, I think Democrats need to stop fretting, need to stop looking at this as a warning and look at it as a wake up call to organize, to mobilize, to register people, to talk about the accomplishments of this administration. If you want to be Donald Trump, stop clutching your pearls and get to work. I see it more as a campaign strategy because I think the privilege of another candidate is just not there. You, what's the, when they talk about Biden stepping down, what's the next choice? Where do you go from there? Because now you talk about Vice President Harris who is pulling, if we go with the pulling, even worse, you can't step over her. So what are you doing in this one year runway? I'm going to wait before I start focusing on this because there isn't, I love when people say, well, you know, he should really be doing this or they should be doing this. And I think to myself, but you're not offering, what are you offering me? What are you telling me? Don't tell me there's something wrong and then don't tell me how to fix it. They are telling you how to fix it. You just don't want to listen. They're saying Biden should drop the fuck out, but you're plugging your ears and you're saying, no, I don't want to think about this right now. Nope, Biden's definitely going to win. Trump's not going to win, not a chance that can happen. Nope, no way, no how. And listen, that is so naive. I feel like after 2016, we all should have collectively learned that anything can happen in American politics, but we're just right back to that same thinking that got us Trump in the first place. Now, I also want to point out her dismissal of polls. That is incredibly ignorant. Pollsters aren't just polling like 4,000 random people. They are creating carefully representative samples that can be extrapolated to get a snapshot of where the entire population is at. They can sometimes under or over represent, but polling methodology is much more complicated than she makes it out to be. And even though they're not everything, there's other things to consider besides polls. We dismissed them at our own peril. Now, there was so much more there that was just wrong, but I'll concede that time is running out. Anna Navarro is correct about that. She said that the deadline to get on the ballot in Nevada was two weeks ago, and that's correct. That is a problem. But my response to that would be, well, either they extend the deadline in the event a new primary takes place or they don't get to participate. It's not like all of these things are written in stone and nothing can change. Yes, things are difficult to change, but they can change. And that brings us to Sarah Haynes, who said, well, you know, what's the next choice? And that's a fair question. But that's what voters have to decide, right? Which is why Biden should drop out. That's the goal. But she noted that Kamala Harris is polling worse, but she said, quote, you can't just step over her, which is shocking to me because again, it gets back to this mentality that things that are supposed to happen are written in stone. You can't change them. But that mentality is so bizarre, especially when it comes to candidates, because you actually can, like you can step over Kamala Harris. She's not the queen. She isn't the heir to the White House throne because Biden anointed her. We live in a democracy and voters are supposed to decide who they wanna elect. And if anything should be learned from elites within the Democratic Party, it's that shoving candidates down our throats and telling us to accept them because it's their turn doesn't always go too well. Maybe that works for Republicans, as we're seeing with Donald Trump, but ask Hillary Clinton how it turned out in 2016 when pundits made it seem as if her win was in inevitability. You can't just do that. You can't just say, well, I know you don't like Kamala, but she's next. So tough. That's not how it works. Now, to be fair, the commentary wasn't all bad because Alyssa Farah, who is the anti-Trump Republican on the panel, or one of two with Anna Navarro, although I don't know if she's a liberal anymore, either way, she's unsufferable, but the anti-Trump Republican, Alyssa Farah, she actually had a surprisingly reasonable response. But I do think there's enough here that it needs to be a wakeup call to Democrats that Donald Trump could beat Joe Biden. Rachel Maddow, one of the, I think smartest Democrats, I can think of, said it here on our airwaves. My friend, David Axelrod, he loves Joe Biden. He wants Joe Biden to win. He is warning because he knows the threat that Donald Trump poses to the nation. And I think when you have such a plurality of prominent Democrats, you've got, you know, James Carville, David Ignatius, Congresswoman Jayapal, warning about this, it's because they're thinking about the future of the country if it is under Donald Trump. And I just want to say this, I think there's this misconception, and I fall victim to it too now as somebody who no longer supports Trump, that Trump voters are just people who storm the Capitol on January 6th. They're not. We walk by them every day. They're tens of millions of Americans. A lot of my family members are literally only not voting for Trump because he's called me mean names. And they'll be like, my 401K was better. My grocery prices were cheaper then. That is a reality. There are tens of millions of people who still support him. I spent a lot of time in Florida and New Hampshire, and there is an energy there. So I think I'm focused on the Republican primary, which is looking bleak, but there is a very real reality that Joe Biden could lose to Donald Trump. And I think Democrats need to take it seriously. And she is exactly right. Listen, I know that it sounds inconceivable that an indicted insurrectionist wannabe dictator like Trump could ever win the White House again, but this is America. Voters, even if they're uninformed, they make what they believe are rational decisions, usually for selfish reasons. So even if Trump is a criminal, they will vote for him regardless of his criminality if they think that the economy will do better under Trump, or if they think there's some net benefit to themselves under Trump. They know about the volatility, the criminality, the stupidity that he would bring, but if they think that their wallets are gonna benefit from a second Trump term, even if they're wrong, they're gonna vote that way. So I don't want to say that I told you so in 2024. I hope that these smug liberals are right, and I hope that Biden does end up winning. But right now, with so much at stake, it just feels irresponsible to ignore these polls and roll the dice with Biden again, especially if you know the danger that a second Trump term poses. But unfortunately, we're likely stuck with Biden. So he's going to spend or have to spend every single second of the next year trying to dig himself out of this hole that he made. But he's got a lot of work to do, and he just doesn't seem to know how to get out of this hole or care that much to get out of this hole. But regardless, we're stuck with him. And I can't imagine that he's gonna do the right thing and drop out. But if he does end up losing in 2024, that's on him. That's not on voters. But I genuinely hope that it does not come to that.