 So welcome again to this webinar today. Just talking quickly about the Dolly Yen and the reaction from the non-farm payrolls result. Saying that this was the non-farm payrolls reaction here, we've got a bounce off this longer term support that I was showing on the chart. Whoops. Basically, we've had the four touches on 124.50. We had a breakthrough the level. And then if we look down more detail on the one-hourly chart, we can see this was a non-farm payroll scandal where initially the numbers weren't as good as expected. So we saw a spike lower in the dollar. But people who then came to think that, well, actually, still probably a September rate hike is still on the table. So people came buying in dollars on the dip, got a rally off this pin bar from Wednesday on the day that we broke, and basically rallied straight back up to the peak and then just peated out there and undid all the gains again. And here we're close to we're chasing the losses. So it just goes to show the kind of choppy environment and the change in sentiment that we're seeing almost on a daily basis in terms of when the Federal Reserve actually might hike rates. Trust the, how is this sound? Are we getting sound at this point? OK, good stuff. So we've held this low so far in Dolly Yen. So the uptrend is still intact, but it's choppy. That's kind of where we are this week is that we're digesting the non-farm payroll result. We just had Stanley Fisher, the vice president at the Federal Reserve, speaking on Bloomberg TV. And piecing it all together, we basically don't know too much more than we did before the non-farm payroll result. It came in a bit lower than expectations. Basically, pretty neutral change from the previous month where we saw slight uptick in wages, but jobs created still about 200,215 precisely, but just slightly lower than the previous month and slightly lower than expectations. So we're not really seeing an acceleration in the US economy, I would suggest, more just consistent. Now it's just a matter of opinion whether it's consistent enough to justify the Fed hiking rates in September, or do they actually need to see improvement? So now we're just waiting for the September non-farm payrolls report, which will be the last one before they actually make a decision in September. This week, not so much in the way of economic data. We're coming into August. It's the quieter season, when a lot of the prominent market making bank traders are away on holiday. And so you tend to start getting these more choppy markets, which on a short term, can provide some pretty strong momentum moves, which provide some good opportunity. But in terms of longer term trends sustaining, it's not always that good. So you just have to be aware of the seasonality of what we're facing in the month of August. But we do have the prospect of this Fed rate hike coming, so that in itself should keep markets moving. I guess probably the couple of ones that I would highlight for this week would be the US retail sales and UK jobs data. You know, that's really some of the most prominent. Just in terms of, again, the economic data that the Fed is going to be looking at, the economic data the Bank of England is going to be looking at to decide on when to hike rates. So that being said, let's have a look over to the British Pound. Now, you can see this 157 has been the real trouble area. And just after several failures to close above it, we're now down in, we're kind of testing this breakout area from the 10th of July. My feeling is that probably just the multiple failures to get through here, when you have this kind of rising trend line, in a strong consistent trend, you would see a move up to at least a high, if not a slightly higher high, to keep a consistent channel. So when you see it touch the rising trend line and then roll over with what is essentially here a lower high and then test the rising trend line again, it's a sign of weakness and a suggestion that the trend line could break. It may not, but you just have to kind of be aware of the kind of weakness that this kind of action possibly ensues. And so my feeling is that there could still be some opportunities within this trading zone, within this kind of demand zone above this low. Because while we're above this low, we're still technically OK for an uptrend. But I'm not quite sure that'll even get back up to 157 again. We could roll over. So again, if we look at the weekly chart, for example, I think we're below the 200-week moving average, but most people follow the 200-day. And we're just about holding on to that at the moment. And you can see we are making higher highs and higher lows. So still, the bias should be to the upside in terms of the medium term trend. And so into that zone, it is still generally in line with the trend, but we've just got to be aware of the kind of strength of the trend and the possibility that we might see a deeper correction. Obviously, what this kind of bearish divergence here as well, where the price has made a new high, but the RSI has made a slightly lower high on these recent peaks. So that in itself could be a reason to see a breakthrough that 50 level and maybe take us down to this low, which you can see a bit more prominently on the weekly chart. So we're in a rising trend, but it's more of a choppy kind of sideways trend. And there's plenty of room for us just to break this trend line and just drop down and be just very much a sideways trend. So since we've found ourselves in currencies right now, let's have a look at the euro as well. There is European CPI. That's probably the next major data point for the euro. But it's probably going to be dollar focused in terms of whether euro actually ends up. We know the broad backdrop. We know that when there's still quantitative easing going on in the euro, that kind of does cap gains for the most part. And at the moment, we're just in this choppy trading range. And so you can see again here this kind of breakout area from the 21st of July is supported the price so far. And we're getting a bit of a bounce. So this is Fridays. And we can see that after initially losing out to the dollar, what we saw, the initial reaction in the dollar was weak. And we saw a surge in the dollar. And then the rest of the day, we saw the dollar drop off again. And that's where we can see a bit of a kind of reversal hammer type pattern coming in at this just before this previous low. So it's a bit of a side of strength there, but still within the kind of context of this declining trend line. And we saw a big reversal on the 31st of July. This is still probably a bias, I would say, to come down and test the low and possibly even break lower. But that will change if we get a move through this declining trend line. Generally speaking, we're in a range. So this 115 is the top. This sort of 108 is the bottom. So down towards 108, your better chances are removed back to 115. But I think this declining trend line would be the kind of, that would be the trigger, I think, this sort of momentum change to move to the top of the range. Also keep an eye on this 50 level in the RSI. That appears to be resistance. And we've seen a bit of a move from this low to make a higher low. So some indication there there's been a change of momentum. Suppose you have a fundamental driver to talk about. Partly responsible for what's going on in equity markets today in terms of the higher open is the Chinese data. Now the most important data, I would argue, is probably the trade data. And we saw a massive drop in exports and imports from China. You might think that was bad, but now we're back into this state where bad data is good just because it may lean on the people's bank of China, the central bank of China to actually cut interest rates or cut reserve requirements of banks and basically ease monetary policy. And so that potentially is a good thing for the Chinese stock market. So Chinese stocks closed almost 5% higher today. That's one of the best moves in a month. And so European markets are sort of following in that just about as our US markets. So let's have a look at the UK 100. This has been one of the big exceptions. Again, for this similar sort of Chinese theme, but it hasn't been following the Chinese equity market higher, the mining stocks have been dragging the index lower for the most part, as well as the supermarkets. You may have seen an article on the front of Citi AM just alluding to the idea that some prices are falling at supermarkets and that's just cutting into there. They're profits and revenues. So it's a difficult time for the sector. Supermarkets are down and miners are down just because of the commodity drive and demand coming from China. So this is what we highlighted last week, because again, this sort of break down area from the previous peak. And even though it looks like we're putting in a bit of a base on the 6500 level, just the sort of choppy sideways markets that we're in, there was a good chance of a kind of sell-off from there. So I did mention in and around Friday, I believe that just given that we were at that RSI resistance, 6500 basically a base, but it was a good chance of a sell-off before 6800, and we're getting that sell-off today. Now, it may just run out steam down towards this low from Monday, because we have had a, you know, there was a higher high, there was a higher low. So it could just be a little drop-off, and then we go on to make a higher high. That'll probably be the defining point as to whether this is just drawn a drop-down to maybe this rising trend line, but it's only got a couple of touches. It's not that reliable, but watch out for any reversal in that area. Probably just a move down to 6500 again. It may be just another move higher from there. Again, just with the idea that we're not really in a trend right now, we're in sideways markets. A few notable UK companies reporting earnings this week. Labrooks, for example, Tamayo. But it's going to be a mixture of earnings performance and international drivers and belief in monetary policy. You know, these are the drivers of the market, and we have to follow which one is being followed more closely when we're in and around what we're doing to be an important price level. Let's have a look at the Germany 30 here. You're probably going to start noticing some correlations here if you haven't already. As you know, again, moving up towards that previous peak where we had made a high high, it had quite a sell-off and back up to the high again. But it looks like maybe we're going to have another run-down, maybe even a sort of break, but then maybe a correction down to the low. Maybe a little push below the low down to the 200-day moving average, then off again. Again, it's just not the most. We needed to push through that high to see a strong trend emerge, and we haven't got that yet. It still can. And you can't see it too well on the daily chart, but a level before we get down to the low, I would say perhaps is these two peaks here where we had quite a strong breakout in the short term. Could look at those lows, but I still tend to think that within a we've actually had quite a strong reaction off these peaks already, but I'm not sure that will quite do it. And so different levels to consider always is this consolidation was the most recent area. So obviously, that brings you more chance of getting into a trend, the higher the level you buy in it. But in terms of risk reward, having your stops beneath lows, be at this low down here, or be more aggressively at one of these higher lows, you're buying lower down for a run back at the high, or to make new highs, just the risk rewards more in your favor, but just less likelihood of getting a trade triggered. So I think you're picking up the general theme here is that some of the currencies, some of the equities are pretty range bound. And so you've got to distinguish your trading strategy accordingly, even if you're trading on shorter time friends and I'm referencing, be aware, and maybe you're trading trends on the shorter time friends, be aware that those trends have quite a good chance of getting capped out at these range highs that we're talking about on the daily chart. I believe it was the S&P that I updated today. So let's just have a look at that. You know, pretty similar picture with the S&P. The S&P is looking a bit stronger than the Dow, actually. And so what I referenced today is that, so here's our range. You know, I chose one of the sort of lower peaks, one of the higher peaks to kind of define a sort of zone. You know, same thing down here, chose this peak, but then also this recent one here, as a sort of general, rather than just drawing one individual line, sort of more of a zone. And just noting that for us really to have broken out of this range ideally, after that strong breakout, we want to come back down, and there's the previous peak, we want to bounce off there, but we didn't. We went right the way down to the 200-day moving average. We came up, made a lower peak, and now we're right down, back to the lows again. So to me, that sort of action suggests that probably we're heading back down to the bottom of the range again, which would make sense. So the last time we topped the top of the range, so if we're still in range-bound conditions, the next one theoretically to touch is the bottom of the range. It doesn't always work like that, look at this. This was another example of where people were looking, buying in around these previous lows, hoping for the break, but it's never happened. And the more this goes on, the more people are going to lose faith in the break actually happening, and we could see a break to the downside. But keep in mind the long-term trend, of course, in equities is higher, so never a good idea to get too bearish. Quickly look at the US 30 just for a basic comparison. Oh, well, I'm pretty sure. So here you can see a low of the 200 day in the US 30 and making lower lows and lower highs, looking a bit weaker, but got quite a decent rebound off of this highlighted low here. Didn't quite get there, but I think that was probably the... I mean, I had this line on the chart previously, and that's in and around, you know, that's the round number of 17,300 fountains and buyers. But the trend is sideways on the bigger scale, and the kind of shorter scale is still down. Now, an area where... So we talked about the fact there's just pretty sideways markets in equities and FX, and some of the FX at least, the major FX. But actually an area where there's been some good trends pretty much to the downside is commodities. So all being the obvious one, what did I update today? I believe it was WTI, oh my God, yeah. So this is a short-term four-hour chart, you know, well below even the four-hour 200, you know, the 200 period moving average on the four-hour, but, you know, well below the 200 day. Now, chance of a bit of a, you know, again, I've used this low, which was kind of a major low that we formed after the big sell-off going into January. We came back low, we made it slightly, you know, lower low, but only just, they came back, and now we're in this kind of consolidation period. So that was actually almost more significant than this one. And so I've done that at the zone, and that's kind of where we're bouncing off at the moment. Comes in on, I think it's 43, 40. So that's just something to bear in mind, and it is, it is seeing a bit of a bounce at the moment, but so far, you know, it's just a very kind of weak bounce to the same extent as these, where we get to move back into the previous lows and then roll over. So here's the low, break the low, retest down. Here's the low, retest down. And so we're kind of looking for the same thing again, but we haven't moved that much further down, we're in this potential longer term support. So if we get above here, and we get above this trend line, which I've connected these first two peaks, we've got to move above here, but then it worked again here. I've got this trend line. So I think that would be a little trigger to show that actually maybe some buyers are coming into the market. Incidentally, there was some CFTC data on hedge funds, you know, speculators, who actually have added to net longs in oil, which is maybe not such a bad play with coming into these, you know, the previous multi-year lows. There's this dome that we're talking about. So hedge funds getting a bit bullish. They're not always right, but it's just maybe an extra piece of information to determine whether this pretty hard, hardcore short-term trend is gonna sustain or not. So could be in for reversal, but at the moment, no, go with the trend. Silver also has been cratering, but again, some signs that I've highlighted over the past few days, that maybe we're starting to put in a bit of a bottom, because here is that spike low. We've actually not, whereas gold did put in new multi-year lows, five-year lows, Silver did not, and it's held just above this spike from December. I'm putting in a kind of small double bottom pattern at the moment, so, you know, kids, you know, these kind of things happen all the time. But if we do get a move and a close above this declining trend line and above 15, I think that adds weight to the idea that we could get a pushback to 16 and maybe just back into the trading range again. So maybe even a move back up to, you know, these previous peaks. So it gives strong downtrends in commodities, but be aware there is a slight setup for reversal going on. Gold, yeah, I mean, this is a really obvious triangle pattern that I think anyone that has a chart opening gold will be seeing in a moment. And so when things are this obvious, you know, you've got to think, the way I tend to think is that, you know, what is a move in the market that would cause the most amount of pain to investors in the market? And so I think what we could well see here is that we get a spike one way, and then it just rolls over and goes the other way. So I'm not, I can't say which way that's going to go, but I'm going to be a bit fearful on the first break. I think if you get a close on the day, after some strong break, then maybe you're safe to go with that move, but there's a good chance of a reversal, particularly if it, you know, within this, within an intraday. So a big spike up to one, you know, to one 10 within the day, could within the course of the day, just come back down into the range again and maybe set up for a break lower. So be cautious of the breakouts. We've got this rising RSI trend line, which to me suggests slightly more likelihood of a top side breakout, but it will actually give us a bit of extra information. If we get a break at that line and then a retest, maybe before the bottom rising trend line in the chart breaks out, then that will give us an indication actually, no, things have switched to the downside if that breaks. Got a question on wheat, so do you have that set up here? A bit messy with these trends. Have not checked the fundamentals on wheat, I'll be honest with you, but in terms of the chart, we've broken through this rising trend line, but we have held this previous low. So definitely a good sort of low, deep value to be buying into what is still basically a sideways market, excuse me, but certainly the better value would be down near the lows. Here is a, when you pull out to this longer-term chart, it's a little bit in the middle of nowhere, but we've had a few lows in this area. You could say here, here, and here's a three, so it would make some sense to see a rebound for this area. And so if I had a bias, it would probably be longer rather than the short going against the recent momentum, just with the idea that we're not really, you know, we're below the 200-week moving average, but the 200-day is not telling us too much, it's in the middle. So looking out to that longer timeframe, you can argue the bias is slightly down, so you have to be aware of that, but I think maybe we're about to undo some of the short-term momentum, it looks like it's slowing up a bit. So looking at these lows, now we've obviously found some support here, we've pushed back just above this rising trend line again, so maybe we're looking at a false break-lower and a push-higher. So essential long here, but you know, the lower risk I suppose, or better risk or reward I should say, is probably down in the 460s. Hope that helps. So I'm not seeing any other questions or any other markets to be looked at here, so I think we're probably going to wrap it up. Thank you very much for attending. Good luck for trading this week. Talk to you next week. Jasper Law's signing out.