 Again, welcome to this week's weekly charting analysis webinar. My name is Jasper Lawler. I'm going to take you through some of the major markets available to trade at CMC markets and some of the major events and charting patterns that may trigger a surprise movement this week. We've got the risk warning in front of us here, but we're almost done with those. And over to the CMC platform. As you can see, a flood of red going through equities at the moment. Just, I think, the cash price may be slightly down on the FTSE. But surprisingly, the FTSE is actually one of the best performing because of the likes of some of these mining companies that I've got listed out here. Rango, Rio Tinto, Anglo-American, and Forgasta, and Forgasta being an exception there, but they're quite kind of copper-dependent. As you can see, copper's down quite heavily, but the other miners all have a bit of exposure to different metals, most of which are down today, as are most of the other major markets because of a route that's taking place in Chinese equities. There was some hope that a bunch of government measures to stabilize the market. We're going to put a floor in the crash that we saw in the last couple of weeks, but it appears not. That's something that we've been calling for is the idea that there's only so much the government can do. The market in China is 80% dominated by individual investors who aren't really under the control of these government measures, which have sort of prevented large institutions or large shareholders from selling their stakes, delisted various companies. As soon as some of these companies have been listed back again on the hope that there was a bottom in place, they've just been limit down, they've been sold down for the maximum percentage to last before trading is disabled for the day, which is typically 10% in a lot of these stocks. All these stocks are slammed down 10%, and the Shanghai deposit thing is worth 34 since 2007. So, real turmoil going on in Chinese stocks. Now, foreign investors don't typically own many Chinese stocks. It's pretty restricted. There is a bit of access through here. I've got this highlighted, the Hong Kong Chinese 8 shares. Foreign investors can own some of these Chinese companies through Hong Kong. Luckily, the declines here have not been quite so dramatic, but this is the week. You can see this is the range that the market was in from 2012. We just had it rocketed higher, and then equally just came right back down to life and then back into this range again. So, that's kind of the statement fares. Here, you can't see it quite as dramatically as the Shanghai Composite or the Shenzhen Chinese exchange, which has a lot of the sort of more smaller technology-based companies in there, which was a much more extreme movement. But similar up and down again. Definitely a good example of a modern bubble that's being popped. Now, like I said, not many foreign investors exposed to it. So, then why are markets red? Well, you could argue that they're just looking for a reason to go red, given all the problems that are out there. But I think it's also just China is a big contributing country towards global growth. The worry is that if China's government doesn't have any handle over the stock market, then equally not going to have much handle over the economy. And so, that Chinese growth is going to come away from global growth and all the sort of reliance that we have in terms of trade with China. It's going to get come undone and that's going to impact U.S. and European and U.K. companies. So, I think that largely explains it. So, if we can dig deeper into some of the major exchanges. I had a quick look at the China market there. But if we have a look at Germany, look at the German DAX. Yep, can certainly have a dig into commodities given the current climate. So, now, so this was the German DAX. This is actually more of a channel. I'm just going to take out the bottom layer, but it's quite a decent channel today. It doesn't look higher, but faltered. Having broken that high, it kind of faltered a bit. Because one thing that I look at here technically is just the most simple possible thing and it's highs and lows. And no matter how you looked at this, whether you consider that a major swing point or whether you consider this more like the major swing point, here was lower. So, lower lows, definitely lower. You know, not just a little spike lower, definitely lower. On the weekly chart, it looks slightly different, which explains some of the rally here. But I think the extent of the correction that we're seeing here, he's probably explained by the fact the market's not actually that strong. It's making lower lows. So, it's fired up and made a higher high, but it hasn't made a higher low. So, we're not in uptrend character at the moment. If anything, we're in range trading character at the moment. No consistent higher highs and high lows are being made. So, that's why I thought when we were up here and we saw this bearish and golfing, I thought that, you know, we're probably going to make it to here. That's where we closed Friday and we're just seeing more assault on the market today. We're moving into this gap. Now, this gap is not necessarily consistent with the cash market, but it is certainly something to consider. It's the area in which we saw that massive break higher in volatility through Thursday and Friday, 9th and 10th of July. That's the sort of first initial surge into this up move. But, you know, if we fail in this zone, to me, we're probably heading back down to these spike lows here, if not the absolute lows here, with obviously the 200-day moving average, keeping us in business for the time being. But it's brave to fight this kind of falling momentum, but you've got to consider, with not an outright downtrend here, you're not necessarily catching a falling knife in the greatest schemes of things. So, after this massive decline, arguably there's only so much further over to go, so you're either looking to buy outright in some of these areas. If you're more confident up here, I mean, if you're more bullish on the market up here, you know, slightly less confident down here, or you just wait for some kind of confirmation pattern, which sometimes gets you in at a worse price, but maybe gives you a little more confidence that something that's actually going to reverse. Very quick look at the Euro stock 50. You can see it's a pretty similar pattern. And there's no mistake. It's because, you know, German companies make up a big bulk of these, the top 50 companies in Europe. Not all of them, but make a big part of it. And the general sentiment that's driving moves at the moment, you can see it's similar. Here, we still are sitting on that previous peak. That's where we're sitting right now. I think we probably will get through it, maybe down into this similar gap vicinity. And then the big one is, obviously, there's low here, which matches up these previous peaks over here. So we bounced off there once. You know, this break out here is positive. We've kind of pushed out of this sideways movement for now, but like I said, lower low, so not that much confidence it could stay. Got a bit overextended. Probably needs a bigger drop to get some bargain hunters in there. UK100 looks, you know, similar factors driving it, but looks a bit different. So we basically faulted out of the 50% retracement slash this spike low here. You know, this was a good confluence of support. I actually kind of thought that I was a bit risk-averse here. I kind of thought it might actually push through to the 61.8, which corresponded with those two old peaks there, but it didn't need to get there in the end. So that strong rally through 50% retracement, that spike there. So that's obviously caused a larger action in the past. And, you know, that was support in the past. Got through it a couple of times here. Nothing's perfect, but, you know, we've faulted out here. And then, so, you know, it would have been brave to be selling outright in that area, you know, at the 50%. But, you know, once you saw that bearish and golfing there, you know, that was a good sign we're about to roll over, especially when it was in combination with what happened in the Germany 30 and the Euro stocks 50 as well. So here, this is an alliance that I've drawn here because this is just our sort of break into our bullish momentum here. And we actually paused a bit above that, which is maybe just a sort of low of this gap on Friday. But I suspect we'll probably push into here somewhere. Maybe around the 6500 is a big round number, psychological number. That may attract some interest again. There's, again, a similar factor, lower low and higher high. So it's not, it's basically not a trend right now. So don't use trend-following type techniques of expecting, you know, really, you know, this is just a rule of thumb. It doesn't always apply. But, you know, expecting a bounce off these areas might have been a bit hopeful because really we'd made a lower low. So higher high could have made a higher low there and started the uptrend, but chances were for a deeper correction. Now I'll just have a look at U.S. markets and then we cover some of the economic data happening a bit, maybe in correlation with currencies. Well, since I did have a specific request of commodities, maybe I'll dip into commodities there, especially since they've been so hardly hit. So hit so hard in the last couple of weeks. We'll dip into commodities and then we'll go through some of the economic data which often affects the currency market more than others. We'll cover that towards the end. U.S. 30. Nice trade with the benefit of hindsight. My line was up here. So, again, a bit conservative, you know, but still very much, you know, look through the posts and you can see that the general theme being that even when you see strong momentum like that, you know, you start getting a bit excited. You start sort of positioning yourself at a breakout to rank new record highs. But, you know, in actual fact, we've been doing that for quite a while now. Big shoots are just failing. We're in a range market in equities at the moment. If you're able to kind of pick these ranges, then, you know, this is a mean reversion-type environment at the moment where, you know, the mean is somewhere in here. I haven't calculated exactly. You could probably call it 7800 maybe. And then prices have just been dropping back to that over and over. And there's just a few levels to look out for at the top and bottom. So here we're obviously right back at this low. And I think depending on, you know, obviously it's looking like pretty sharp to clients here, but obviously we saw really far up in clients here. I suspect that maybe we can take out that low. And if we do, you know, we're looking back at 17,000 again in the U.S. 30, you know, our approximation of the Dow. But I feel that maybe we'll get some bargain on just coming in ahead of that. Maybe we won't even get that quite that far. Maybe this level, we saw a lot of closing prices of that in this blood flow here. More than sort of 17,200 people might, might try to kind of catch this market, try to pick the bottom. But largely depends on, I think, maybe the big driver U.S. market to obviously be touching a bit on what's going on this week will be the Fed on Wednesday. And what they have to say about the timing of the next interest rate hike, I think we probably won't get too much info from them. Probably not too much different from what we've heard previously. So then actually it will probably come down to corporate ending results. We've got a few interesting ones this week. We've got Twitter and Facebook both reporting. And then the oil companies, given the weakness in the oil market, excellent Chevron reporting too. U.S. STX, this is just text but perfect really. There's our top of the range. And I've got to just use that high here to that high to sort of pick out the zone. It kind of works looking at these highs. We've fixed a bit higher into the zone. Anyone buying them this breakout right here, absolutely regretting their move. Anyone looking for the breakout up here? Well, they're okay. The age has now happened. And so we saw this big bearish and golfing pattern back on Tuesday and they've not really looked back since. Here's those previous peaks. I thought we might have sort of a bit of interest there. We were closed in that vicinity but really actually right back down to the 200 day moving average. And I keep it on the chart and I think it's kind of referenced there. The general overall uptrend we're in, as you see here, we can dip through and still make it higher again. I think if we dip through it again, it will really kind of solidify the idea that we're out of an uptrend now. We're into sideways range trading and we could stay in that mode for a while, maybe until the Fed raise rates and maybe even after they've done a few rate hikes, if they do. So really in this range band environment, we could get a rally up here somewhere. You can look to some of the lower time frames to see where there's been some action. I'll have a quick look into that now. So this reversal point here is maybe something that a few people have their eye on. There was a gap that took place here. Obviously just this low here in around the 2060 round number could be an area of interest because we kind of gap down there and end up closing that day higher. So market could pick up around 2060 if it doesn't a bit earlier. There's 2068, but this is really a pretty sharp downtrend. You probably want to wait for something more like a failure swing and a lower low, something like we saw up here before considering going along this market base. If you are inclined to use these short time frame charts, this is a distinct downtrend. We just got to be aware that that downtrend is probably going to run out of steam somewhere into the bottom of this longer term range. Okay, so look at the commodities then. There's specific requests for wheat, so I'm just going to jump into that. There's a couple of opportunities where we are sitting at the moment. I'm not too inclined to, I mean we've had a steep fall. We've crossed through all the moving averages and now we're going to this trend line. So something, and it also corresponds with the kind of momentum breakout in around here. So a couple of reasons to believe the area that we are at the moment could prove of some kind of interest, you know, right on that 500 round number. So we've got, you know, if you're buying into support, ideally you want a confluence of different supportive reasons. So we've got a round number of 500. We've got a breakout to cause this massive rally. We've come back to that area and we've got this rising trend line. So you'd imagine all the different traders out there have technical tools. There's going to be quite a few there using at least one of these. And so that may be a reason for the market finding a little bit of demand. And there's a bit of an inkling of it at the moment. I mean that's probably always going to happen, just a little bounce in the short term, whether we actually close the day above there or close the week above there is a different question. This is probably a scenario where, you know, the momentum is very much down in the short term, but you can hardly say this is a category uptrend that it would be terrifying to buy into. I think it's pretty choppy. And so quite frankly I haven't checked the latest update on the growing season for wheat, so I don't quite know where we are fundamentally there. But technically, I don't think it's all together bad. You know, it's a buying and selling market. You know, this was the line in the sand. If we'd held this area, because, you know, since no response we had a long width candle here, if we'd held that and moved up to higher prices, even this one, or even down to here, if a 200-day in combination with these peaks had held, then you would think, well, actually, maybe we're developing into a kind of bull market here. But to me, this is not a bull market. It's not a bear market. And then to Miss Coney to the downside, in a range, that's kind of what you want in terms of your buying opportunities. So I hope that helps. I've got a request for silver. Yep, certainly do that. So silver is really interesting at the moment for this reason. It was sitting right above what was multi-year lows, was five-year lows from November. It was just holding above the pie area. So as you probably know from multiple headlines that you've read and seen and watched, the gold did make five-year lows, but silver has not so far. And actually did close off its lows to some extent last week. I would hardly call that a categorical reversal pattern by any stretch. I think we're probably going to head lower again. And I suspect we probably will break into new lows and flush a few week-longs out of the market. It's my base case tonight, but it's interesting that we haven't done so yet. I think the level that we're kind of struggling with is because this is a strong reversal candlestick. So part of my reason for thinking that we probably are eventually going to break the lows is that that is a strong reversal right there. Ahead of these long-term lows, just through the 15-round number support, but just have absolutely not built in at all. But we did kind of close in around that low. And that's not a mistake. People are watching that level. And weren't willing to close the market below it last week. So that offers some hope. But I think the fact that we weren't immediately able to build on that, at least up to these things, is a sign of utter weakness in the market. And I think we're probably heading lower. I don't know who knows how much lower, but I think we're going to be into the vicinity of moving into a technical downtrend when we make a new low-low there. Whether that turns to be a false breakout and is an opportunity to buy back into the trend, I would say best judged on probably weekly council stick patterns. And if you see a reversal like that, or for following weeks, or a big coalition goal thing, something like that. Before then, I think it's a very risky buy to be buying into quantities right now. They are pretty universally hated. So you might say that when the sentiment is it's worst, that's the best time to buy. Sentiment tends to be a leading indicator. So sentiment will get really rubbish on the market, but the prices will still have down, leaving time for the last people to jump on board at the end. And then those people will get quickly shaken out. The week shorts will get shaken out, and then you get to move higher. This is a sort of general basis though. Just when sentiment turns bad, there's still plenty of room for downside. So don't buy into a market just because everyone hates it. Unless you've got very deep pockets, there's more of a Warren Buffett type technique, not so much the individual investor. I say like myself, I suspect I can confidently say like us. So that's silver. Well, let's have a look at gold too. I hope that was of use. Those who are interested in silver, any more specifics on silver? All week for that matter, just let me know. So this is me digging down into the four-hour chart on gold. Quite a nice little opportunity here, I would suggest. We've made lower lows. We've come back up to the high. We've got a bearish and golfing on the four-hour chart and in a very weak market, potential to push down to the lows again and think probably quite likely break the lows. Keep in mind this massive reversal is causing us support so far, but we'll still get plenty of willing sellers even if we're not quite able to break that one of 80 for the time being. But this is a, it's not perfect, but we basically had something along the lines of this is a false break and then a bearish and golfing. So that combination together is, and then using that old high, that's a great little short-term trade. Not to say it'll work out, but it's one of those. The opportunity is down to down 1095, one of 80, looking in the region of 15 points and then 107 on the top side. So potential sort of risk of a break in high and 107 points potential downside of 15 points. So this obviously could follow through and we saw a break. Maybe it just doesn't have the momentum for the time being and then dips higher. Again, my experience as a general will probably dip to the low. But no one can predict this market perfectly. You have to take the odds. Zooming out to the daily chart here, you can see why this is something you don't necessarily want to be in a hurry to go long of. We've broken up that big support of at 1135 and it would be a pretty normal market reaction, especially after a sort of little spike at the end there to come up and see a retest of the lows. So you've got to bear in mind that distinct possibility. The other thing being, you might wonder what this dotted line is. So basically this is as far as our chart stretch out, but that's actually all they need to because this is really when the bull market began back in December of 2000. It's not necessarily December around 2000. I had that huge bull market in gold. Now we've actually corrected almost bang on 50% of it. And then I've just drawn this peak here, which is quite a big one. And then this previous low here has those levels that you see better on the daily chart, these two down here. So if we could see a continuation, I'd say they'll probably be a good magnet for where price can head. But you'll notice that on the daily chart we've not closed below that 50% retracement yet. So be aware of these different dynamics. A downtrend, a long-term potential weekly support, and a little short-term potential false breakout. So a quick look at... Oh, we're a bit short of time here. I did say I was going to look at currencies. We're not going to have too much time for that. We may have to run over a little bit here. So a quick look at Brent. He said the pretty steep sell-off today. So here you can see the general nature of things is that we had a good correction, ABC, still below the 200-day moving average and just kind of gradually drifted down. This would have been the area in which price would have needed to hold up to see that become sort of like a flag pattern and break higher. It didn't happen. It broke down. On this was the day, the big day. July 3rd, gap down through these previous peaks here. And then came back and retested them. And now we're down at this previous low and we're pushing through it. So quite a decent reversal there, but we have dropped through it. And I suspect we'll test this low here if not break it. Trend is certainly down. Keep an eye on this RSI declining trend line. That gives us a little clue that the price trend is losing momentum before the price actually shows us. Very much a similar situation in WTI. You will, of course, have access to an economic calendar, but just to go through some of the latest events, I think, we'll be driving currencies particularly. We've already had to German ifo today. And the euro was up a fair bit more than that, but the other big data piece we have today is durable goods, U.S. durable goods. That's been mixed. And generally, durable goods alongside retail sales have been one of the kind of weaker symbols of what's been going on in the U.S. Tomorrow we've got U.K. GDP, so that will be pushing the sterling around. And we've also got U.S. consumer confidence later on. Wednesday the big one, we've got the Fed statement. Thursday we've got German, CPI, U.S. GDP. That's the other big one. Because really, I think the nature of it will be caution going into the Fed statement, maybe a bit of relief when they don't really signal anything specific from the Fed. And then GDP to really tell us, I'll give us a bit of a better idea where the U.S. economy is and how inclined the Fed are going to be to raise rates as early as September. So U.S. GDP probably the biggest one of the week, but especially if you're trading the euro, which I can bring up now, will be whether we push further up higher into the trading range will be the sort of relative performance of on Friday we have European CPI, which we'll get an indication of on Thursday with the German CPI, how weak is inflation in Europe versus how strong is growth in the U.S. or vice versa. That will determine the direction to me for the euro-USD, but technically, you can see that this previous support held pretty nicely. We didn't get a close below there on the daily chart. Did get a breakdown here. That triggered us down here, but we're back above that former support now. And now we'll push it back into what was the breakdown area here. That could be of some interest, but really I think it's probably just these highs. This is going to be the next target on that 112 level. Something of a declining trend line coming through here. Make up this advance a little bit, maybe provide another opportunity to be going along in around the bottom of the candlestick or this previous peak for those in the belief that we're pushing higher into the range. Keep in mind we are below the 200 day and failed here to push in and make any major new highs. Again, it's a kind of choppy market. Buying and selling in around the middle of this range here is the highest risk. While the range maintains, this is the lowest risk opportunity down here and up here. Quick look at cable. This again is kind of diving down a bit. You can see some of these different levels being respected and not. Here's the kind of conflicting picture that we've got here. We've got the big bearish and golfing from Thursday. But then we've got the, what is sort of doji slash hammer, Buddhist reversal pattern, or at least consolidation pattern from Friday. So not much of a follow-through on this. We did get through this range, but we're sort of faltering again a bit. I have that former range. My suspicion is that even if we are able to push up back up to the 156 region, we're probably going to face more sellers after that, that reaction on Thursday. But again, we'll probably depend on the UK GDP tomorrow and how that squares up against the U.S. data that we've seen. And then should we break down here, we've kind of reacted off this low, we'll be down into this sort of area, the 200-day moving average, and the kind of merchant breakout from down here. Dolly Yen is right up close to its record peaks. Still a good chance of getting there, up above 125, 90, and into new, sorry, I don't know if I said record peaks, but multi-year peaks. This was quite a strong reaction, so it could act as some sort of support. But again, it's a bit of one of those where we made a low, a low, we made a high, a high. Not really a trend taking place. So this would be where the trend could develop. But my suspicion is that we'll probably get down to that sort of breakout zone in here, maybe the 121 being the round number of interest, but if a market's a bit more aggressive, 121-60. Okay, that's about it. Thank you very much for attending. So I ran over a little bit there. But good luck for trading this week. It's Jasper Lawler signing out.