 So I'm joined by Jonathan Shafi, the co-founder of the Radical Independence Campaign in Scotland. It was a major player in 2014 as the campaign for independence went up from the mid-20s I think it was polling all the way up to 45 on the eve of the vote of course it didn't win but nobody was expecting that kind of improvement in the vote it was within touching distance of creating an independent Scotland. Welcome Jonathan. We've got so much to talk about obviously that campaign was in 2014 since then we've had the rise and the relative for the SNP the renewal of Labour with Jeremy Corbyn that meant a few seats going Labour's way in Scotland in June so we'll start with this if there was a general election in three or six months time how many seats would the SNP win or lose? Okay well to kind of answer the question about where the SNP vote is going we have to draw back slightly towards the referendum you're right to say that the support for independence went up hugely in a very small scale of time so it went up from about 20% to 45% and is now permanently around the 45% mark. The reason for that in my view it wasn't because of a nationalist impulse or any kind of patriotism as such but because there was an opportunity to vote against austerity against the Tories against new Labour and in that sense it was organically radical in my view because if you look back it was range against that movement of ordinary people it was the banks most of the media there was only one paper that supported independence the financial institutions and project fear which was designed close by better together so it was a radical movement in broad terms and in 2015 in the general election the SNP tapped into this they pitched themselves of being anti-austerity as being a thorn in the side of the British establishment and they won great rewards from this they won 59 MPs a huge huge number historic complete political hegemony but the problem I think comes when they think to themselves okay we've won that section of the working class it's now time to orientate ourselves in the corporate boardrooms so instead of using this hegemony to directly appeal and to continue to appeal to working-class Scotland by doing things like replacing the council tax which they didn't do or by pursuing a seriously radical programme of land reform which which they didn't do it's meant that a section of their post 2014 search has fallen away to an extent and that was always going to but I think it's been exacerbated by that kind of leadership which has been to moderate towards the centre and of course this has come alongside the development of Jeremy Corbyn who is seen as a kind of anti-neoliberal anti-establishment figure who obviously excites lots of people in Scotland lots of people who by the way voted yes are also excited by the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn and I think the combination of these things makes the political terrain very difficult for the SNP at a general election so to answer your question there is no safe seat in Scotland and that's quite a turnaround from 2015 we look at the 2017 results many seats were won by very small margins indeed one was won by two votes so there's no safe seat there was a Tory surge there was a steady increase in the labour vote to an extent they won back some territory I think with the possibility of a Corbyn prime minister in the next three to six months if that's when an election that's a realistic option and I think that labour at a general election would do well because of that but I think that underlines that lots of what's driving Scottish politics is a left-wing agenda so I'm obviously a big fan of Jeremy Corbyn I'm a Labour Party member you are a fan of Jeremy Corbyn's politics but you are still campaigning for independent Scotland I'll briefly state well I think Scotland should stay in the union and then you can you can make the counter argument I would say that Britain is better together I never thought I'd be saying that a couple of years ago because we now have the possibility of a parliamentary majority at Westminster alongside a social majority in the country which is highly politicised highly mobilised and a radical left-wing prime minister overseeing a radical project of both economic reform anti-imperialism changing global institutions now Britain is a medium-sized power but as a hangover of our colonial past we you know punch above our weight when it comes to the G7 the IMF WTO now I would say to a left-wing Scott you can be part of this and even if we only achieve 30 percent of the things we set out on that's significant reform could be on a par say with the remaking of the World Order after 1945 and NATO and so on we could do that or you may go off have a separate country and actually be very affluent you know have a country that's equivalent to Norway or Sweden in terms of wealth and maybe even with fewer income inequalities out of those two alternatives as a left-wing what would you take this is a really important discussion and by the way I don't come at it from a dogmatic point of view first about Corbyn Corbyn is probably the most authentic political leader that Britain has seen in the modern era and I think that's what's galvanised so many people behind them but I think it is important to point out that I don't think Corbyn is a product of the labour left necessarily if you remember he struggled to get on the ballot paper the first time around he only got on by the skin of his teeth and actually it's the build-up of a whole series of social processes social movements a feeling in society a frustrated feeling needing to find voice and they found it through Jeremy Corbyn and there was this huge influx of people into the Labour Party now I think that this carries a whole range of strengths what Corbyn's managing to do is not just to challenge with power but to change the terms of the debate which is hugely important but in Scotland the political terrain in my view is quite complicated unlike England where the whole left is behind the Labour Party I mean really without question in Scotland it's not it doesn't mean that everyone who's not behind Labour is behind the SNP but it does mean that there are some quite deep issues when it comes to the relationship that many many working-class people have with the Labour Party because of the 2014 experience so from my position in Scotland I want to be in a position along with a range of other people to be able to bring together sections of people who agree with independence sections who don't but that doesn't mean there's not tactical questions give me one last example if Jeremy Corbyn was the prime minister I would not be arguing at that point in time further to be a Scottish referendum because A I don't think it would win B I think the arguments would be very difficult and C I think that there's a real sense in which the independence movement could be hijacked by people who essentially want to break the Corbyn government and build a neoliberal Scotland so I think that's a really important distinction and just lastly everything that we are discussing hinges on absolutely hinges on in my view the strength of the extra parliamentary movement this is to me the fundamental thing to me it's not about joining Labour although that's important particularly in England when you're going through re-selections and so on it's about having a focus on what happens if Corbyn's elected and there being an extra parliamentary movement that goes for the same if Scotland was to win independence if Scotland wins independence and there's not a radical social movement that can forcefully express itself onto the political situation it will be captured as well so that to me is the essence of the most important strategic element of I would say the situation but okay I'll reset the question then forget Labour if get Corbyn even but if the end result here when we're old men we've got white hair 25 years time on the one hand you have a independent Scotland a world leading in renewable energies high tech great food exports GDP per head higher than Norway very low income inequality or Britain slightly higher income inequality not perfect not as far down the road when in regards to the development of socialism has played a major role in the recasting of global institutions while also undermining the neoliberalism in one of the primary centres for that paradigm what would you take well I think the question of Scottish independence isn't just about you know the living standards of Scots although that's clearly central it is about dismantling the British state and this is I think important because maybe this is where we have a difference to kind of explore you're talking about a Britain under Corbyn or under a socialist government going and being able to transform global institutions and so on and so forth I think that that is optimistic but it's optimistic on the basis of there being the possibility of the British state itself being able to transform these kinds of institutions instead of the British state and its various arms the army and so on and so forth reforming the Weber party out of its radicalism that's why I think the extra parliamentary is so important the reason why I say that is because I think the institutions at the global level are going to have to change anyway I think this is a good point yeah I mean so the question is in which way do they go and you know I talk to a few people around the Melocheon project they're you know they're quite positive about the outcome of a French presidential race several years down the line we don't know what's going to go on in the US but unless the Democrats go with a relatively radical candidate I think Trump would win a second term so let's be very optimistic and say we have Melocheon we have a left-wing Democrat nominee and left-wing a progressive Democrat nominee and they win the presidency all of a sudden in between Corbyn and those two these are three players if you can get a bit of buy-in from elsewhere in the global south China for instance just those four can really change the terms of the game can't they whereas Scotland by itself you know like I say it could be an analogue to Norway but it can't play the game at that level definitely right so it's not about but you see it's not about Scotland playing the game at that level it's about Scotland dismantling the British state it's about Scotland breaking British power right I don't think that we can do the things that you're talking about without there being a major confrontation with the global capitalist system right I know you agree with that right but but what what what that looks like what forces are involved and to me is important I think the left has to far more adopt a politics of rupture in that sense I'm opposed to the EU for example I think one of the one of the really interesting dynamics is the idea of a Corbyn government happening outside of the EU how does that play itself out I'm in favour of a pan-european movement and I think Corbyn can play a huge role in that but I do think that the national question if you're operating in Scotland you have to take a very nuanced view it's not going to be the case that you're always on the front foot when it comes to independence but it is the case that that question is going to exist and it has existed of course for a very long time but I mean you know if Corbyn comes to power and gets drowned out by whole sections of the rolling class then Scottish independence suddenly then becomes much higher up the agenda my view though would be that if Corbyn comes to power the absolute priority for everyone regardless of where the yard in the UK is to defend that government against the onslaught that would inevitably come but also to challenge the government as well to to turn most of the left again and keep coming back to this that's the need of extra parliamentary movements how best do you build an extra parliamentary movement in Scotland I don't think it's necessarily by being a member of the Labour Party which cuts you off from quite important sections of people the Tories did surprisingly well in the in the last election in Scotland are they got seven seats now some of this yeah yeah I think more I'll have to double check but yeah they've done they did well yeah what's the future for them if the s&p vote does go down a little bit if Labour do a little bit better we thought the Tories were dead and buried in Scotland after 1997 do you think in the long term they're going to sort of slightly come back as the voice of reaction reunionism I think that the Scottish Tories did well in the last election because what they did was as you point out was they crystallised their entire campaign as opposition to independence if you wanted to support the union you voted Tory simple as that so Ruth Davidson is being entangled in the crisis of the British state and of the British Tory party and there's only so much that they can distance themselves for it it's worth remembering that Ruth Davidson was very public in campaigning for remain she doesn't like the relationship with Donald Trump she has built her political brand on being a progressive Tory that's very very difficult for her to do now when at the same time she can't lash out against her own party so I think the Scottish Conservative party is going into a period of thankfully I think it's going into a period of relative plateau I don't think it's going to increase from here and I would very much hope that it can be overtaken by the Scottish Labour Party I've made a number of jokes about how you know if Richard Leonard wins Labour will overtake the SNP and Westminster polls not Hollywood polls just for clarification how possible is that I think that's very possible because if you look at the last election I think I've kind of mentioned this in various formats before is that there's no safe Scottish seat I mean if you talk to SNP MPs right they'll tell you this I mean it's not rocket science right one seat I think was won by like two votes another by 60 votes when there's the real possibility the realistic possibility of Corbyn becoming the prime minister I think they'll be attractive to many many people in Scotland and it's really important that the SNP begin to develop a theory of the crisis I think Alex Salmond for example does have a theory of the crisis he understands the nature of populism he understands the nature of the crisis of the British state I'm not sure the present SNP leadership does they think that a managerial approach to politics will break through into the kind of popular into popular discourse and sentiment I don't think it does I think people want politics which is based on a real determined vociferous attempt to completely alter how our society works finally Richard Lennon has just been elected as the leader of the Scottish Labour Party we could have a general election next year probably not but I'd say there's maybe a 40 percent chance it's perfectly possible can you foresee a situation whereby the people behind independence could be advocating a Labour vote strategically even if Labour were a party of the union were promising some kind of constitutional convention immediately following a general election which is being talked about quite widely I think John Trickett would oversee it do you think there's two conversations about a constitutional convention for Britain and then something like divo max and another referendum being promised under certain conditions a bit like the Good Friday agreement is that is that possible for you well I think that I mean to me the idea of a constitutional convention is a good thing right I mean you know that's that's a good thing to happen however because of the nature of the no campaign in 2014 one of the things that put forward in the days running up was a vow and this was a vow about more powers going to Scotland a bit more devolution so on and that wasn't delivered in fact the repatriation of powers from Brexit right is now even in contention right about where they go and so because people feel that they've been sold up up to put it like that and then the ability of Scottish Labour to be able to convince people who voted yes or who voted no on that basis right is very difficult and I think people will vote Scottish will vote for Labour in a Westminster election I think Scottish Labour still has huge challenges I mean one thing I would say about Richard Leonard is he's not Jeremy Corbyn Richard Leonard is a GMB official I mean he's not I'd have to check but he doesn't have the kind of standing as being a permanent rebel inside the Labour Party that I think Jeremy Corbyn has certainly not the profile around it and Corbyn comes from a different I think political milieu and I think that's more exciting for people but there is a reason why the huge phenomenon in England that's existed around Jeremy Corbyn and thousands of people coming out to see him and so on hasn't translated in the same way as Scotland it's important for us to think those things through but yeah I think that I think there's every possibility that many people who voted yes would vote for Jeremy Corbyn I equally think that their vote for Jeremy Corbyn would also should not also be taken as a vote for the union I think it's much more complicated than that