 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapman. Call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. Hello everyone, Basil Chapman. You can see from the chart that I'm showing you right now on this Tuesday the 12th of July. Look at this. Let me show you the one minute chart. It's just unbelievable. The kind of movements we've had in just a couple of hours. Look at this. It has the one minute chart. It comes from the low of 3820.75. 3820.75, that's right there. And screams to peak A, B, C, D, and pulls back, remember the Chapman way of always looking for Ds, pulls back again, starts all over at about 7.05 or 7.00, just off the 7 o'clock. It was exactly 7.01. At 3825.15, goes peak A, B, C, D, E, F, and goes to a G. I'll turn it on, G, C, turns around at 7.42, 3844.75, because I'm doing about the ESU, this is the September E-mini, one minute chart, pulls back to where? The 200-period moving average, right? Hits it five times, and takes off and goes peak A, B, C, D, E, F, pulls back sharply, starts another move, peak A, B, C, 1, C, 2, D, E, F, another F, right there at the high of the day, 7.40, and that is at the high of 3876. So it goes up 50 points, just like that, and then it pulls back. But what does it do? It pulls back underneath the 200-period exponential moving average, here comes the fight, the magnet of the 200. Does it become a holding pattern for a period? Does it become a repellent zone, or does it become a propellent zone? And we'll know, because if there's a close on a one-minute basis for two bars out of three under 37, that's a problem. If there is a close above 38.53 for two out of three bars, that says we should continue up. Yeah, we come with the tests at 38.42. All right, let's get back to our story. It's more important that we look at the big picture in the market. So a couple of things are happening here. In the general market, we'll start off with the Dow. I'd say in the preamble, the update at 10 a.m. for the Tiger Financial News Network market update. I'd say that the Dow had yesterday and today momentarily flipped positive with the pink nine-period moving average pushed over the 14-period, black 14-period moving average in the daily chart to go green. And if it holds green all the way for two sessions, that says, you know what, finally we've made a low that allows you to at least make an attempt to take out the candle high of the 8th of July of 31,511. If it takes that out, we can, oh, and I should put here, I meant to change that in my daily update for my subscribers. This is actually gray peak A again, gray peak B, and any move above 31,511 actually starts C. It doesn't have to go all the way to 3185 or six, let's say, to start an XC. This will start a new C because you got from the low bar initiation of the buy signal that was momentarily at a buy mode, went back to just a buy signal. You have to count your channel wave obligations to count each successively higher peak and trough. In this case, that becomes, that was a gray peak B, I'll just change the color since I'm talking about it. This is a gray peak A because it's underneath, it hasn't confirmed yet enough technical veracity to be upgraded to a buy mode that we still have to wait. But at the same time, we are long and we're still anticipating that there's, I've been very disappointed, as I mentioned, even on Friday, that the action Friday was doji candle, small plus sign, that's where it looks, that was in great action. The setting was just, it just came in too often, it was too easy for the sellers to have a predominance, even though the buyers were there to hold it up. Same thing yesterday, sellers predominated, same thing this morning and all of a sudden now you start to see some kind of give back, some kind of buyers are saying, we are starting to see some bargain, that's the way the price looks. I would consider this to be a very bullish action until I see the Dow trading in the 31,700s. Oh, in between, you can do all sorts of things, but that would say to me, oh, finally you can test this channel wave inside track repellent zone, look at this, the green and pink narrow channel, you really need to be trading above that to say, change course, 70% of the stochastic is not very good, it needs to be over 80%, on balance volume not very good, needs to be much higher than that. So this is all a process, and I'm talking about it as a process because should I take some time now to do, yeah, I'll just take time, I was nothing to do, just waiting for prices to improve, if they're going to improve, this is the moment that they should. So what we're looking at is within the context of what we're hearing either on the news or in the financial shows, there really is a mix now of some analysts saying we are so oversold that a really decent low is in place and the Dow and the S&P and the Qs, even the IWM should start to move to the upside, there are some people that say, uh-uh, it is so oversold under any measure that I've ever looked at, this is what I'm hearing, that there's just no way that even if there is a sharp sell-off, there's just no way that we haven't made a substantial low that says there should be a really strong trigger for a move to the upside, then there are a lot of people that say there is so much evidence of weight, W-E-I-G-H-T, overhanging, you've got, let me just do this right now, as I'm speaking I'll go to all these different areas, you've got crude oil, which happens to be down today, down six at ninety-seven point two four, a person who was asking me about the SCO the other day and I said yep it's made of PXC but it could be really choppy, I don't know how you can actually trade this without just closing your eyes saying I'm long and when I get to a leg D, I'll have to manage the trade because in the choppy buy signal to buy mode is now in a buy mode, no no stochastic 754 percent, so it's well PXC, unfortunately to go to a buy mode as it crosses PXC to go to a leg D but anyway the SCO which is the inversion of the of the crude oil price of crude oil is showing a lot of strength and the weekly chart is actually improving so when you put it into that context crude oil is still at a very high level, I mean it's still in the 90s but if you look at the rectangle formation that I said this suggests if we stuck in the rectangle because we broke more than half away on the pullback we couldn't even test the lows that would be at the 80 was 86 I think it was and we go to the slowest here the week of yeah the week of yeah the week 87.37 was the week of the 15th like continuous contract so it's still stuck in the range but it might be headed down but it is still in a very high level I'll talk about that in relation to yields and I'll talk about in relation to commodity, super speed, the dials are up 44. 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It had a high up in the 280s. Double top, 281 area. Plunges down to the 205. I mean that's our whopping decline for the transport, especially since you consider that the transports overall is ready. A measure of economic strength in that you've got. Yes, you've got the airlines Jets, J-E-T-S, which has just been hammered. It's holding to 90 days up 60 cents up at 17.07. But in fact, there's a whole other thing going on in the airlines. So I like to think of it more as the CSX, the rails. And if you look at the rails at a low taken out in the arch formation with the peak D high up in the 38s. Plunges down to days low is 2815. That's almost 30% decline. Peak F in the monthly. So it's a real mixed picture. And I have said to subscribe some open call. What we're going to do is try to be individualized. We're trying to identify areas of strength areas of weakness and try to just put a limited amount of built up a huge cash position, put a limited amount of money to work in order to at least benefit from any rally attempts to try to build up a kitty of cash. And that way we can look at putting a lot more money to work. We finally get some kind of a signal that says, you know what? That's the signal we're looking forward to say all all's clear, at least for a six to maybe even an eight week rally in the market. I don't really see that at this particular point other than to say we've got to go step by step. And actually, if you're looking at it in terms of time, we have been from the 17th of June. Here we are the 12th of July. We haven't even been in a month. We off the lows. But we really, I said, oh, there it is. L could be just an intraday thing. L flash, the nine is now above the 14 period moving average in the dating chart. But the dating chart, you have to wait for the closing valve because it's you don't want to make calls intraday, unless you're using other techniques and the hundred and twenty minutes are is improving. But that's not the point. The point is that's way to the end of the day. So within that context, I'm saying that there are now an increasing number of people that are saying the the impact of the global markets. If you look at the housing sector, this is go to the housing sector, HGX. And I'm doing this because so many people will ask me, could you just go through your thinking in terms of the overall? What should we do? We know what we're doing as subscribers. But what should we do in the big picture? And what should be at least telling our children, our parents, our friends, just in terms of the hopeful signs of is it so bad? Well, if I put it together, the HGX, which is the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index, has come off very nicely from its low peak A, peak B, peak C. Here we are finally in leg D, peak C, right there. And here we are in leg D. It's a fact. It's not clicking. There we are. Click, click, click, D. What's really nice about this is that it's touched the 14 period moving average in the weekly chart for the first time. Now, I'm hearing stories about housing. Of course, this is the time that you hear interest rates have really popped to the upside. A lot of things are going on. Let me just put the picture into the way I'm looking at it right now. This is an extremely difficult market in the sense that you could be right and you could be doing just absolutely fabulously, looking at a particular stock or index or sector and you've picked the bottom and it's now way off the bottom. And you can see 20%, even a 30% gain in some cases, sometimes even more. But that's after coming down 30, 40, 60, even 80% in some cases. So please consider that your cash is really important, number one. And number two within the context for my subscribers, I'm still looking at trying to have a whole set of parameters that subscribers can look at. I people from all walks of life, fund managers, people overseas, people in the everywhere, people who can only put in a bid from when they get my newsletter at between eight and eight 30. And then they're off to work. They can't they have to actually leave home and that they're out, they can't do anything. So I have prices from single digits. I love that we've got one single digit stock. It's a really nice percentage of taking little bits off. Or we could have something like the dollar index, the dollar index, which is trading right now at 108.17. We've had it since 2018. Since April of 2018, when the UUP, that's the dollar bull fund was trading. We got in the 23s. And we just took off another tiny little bit off as the first time in ages, we've taken it off at what was the UUP. UUP in leg D, we took off yesterday for a 22% gain at 28.86. We're in from 23.62. Way back, as I said, oh, I should retype that way back in 2018. So DXY. I think that the dollar and this is I'm getting now I want to put this all together. As I said, right at this moment to be looking, we've got a couple of questions about stocks. I'll get to them really soon. What I want you to say is, look, the dollar is done the Chapman wave one to one expansion. And that took it just a little bit above that blue line went from that low back in late March. So April May to the high of 105.79 pulls back and then goes sideways and then this big move up. It's got a one to one move say 11 bars up and this is I think the 10th or 11th bar. So this is exactly where I'm saying what everything because the dollar you can say it's overbought. But if it's the if it is the focus point, if it is where people want to go internationally, if the big globalists want to go into the dollar, I don't know, let's just say globalists, maybe there's other commentations. If the global market wants to go into the dollar because of the currency of security, it has been for so long, you can talk about Fibonacci, you can talk about Chapman wave, you can talk about volume, you can talk about anything you want. The price is rising because the tide is rising until that changes. We'll see what happens. So this little doji in a leg E says, alright, on a very short term basis, maybe ready for a bit of a pullback leg D in the weekly way above the previous highs, leg C and the monthly icon are going to change this now to an F slash these is a leg C. So what we're looking at here in the dollar index is that within the context of the big picture, we could have a pullback for the dollar still seems to be the lead indicator. And if you look at the euro, look at this, the euro is making a little doji candle today. I had drawn in the cup formation potential in the weekly after the huge arch. Look at this huge arch and it says somewhere around here at 1.005 at all. 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This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. So how important was the one minute E-mini SMT Our 200 feet of expansion moving average that was support from back at 8 20 and then ran all the way from around at 38 36 all the way to the high of the day of 38 76 50. Then it pulls back under the 200 feet of moving average and tries to go above it. And now it's testing testing testing and sitting right at 38 46. This is the 200 feet of moving average. It's been there in terms of number of bars since 10 01. Yeah, we are 10 30 since about 20 27 bars. It's been hugging that line. That's how important some of these indicators are. You don't have to do anything. You don't have to practice or learn anything. You just put it in and watch it. And when it's up here, you just ignore it because the 9 and 14 period moving averages are most important. And look at this. The nine went under the 14 pink and has been there since that turned down at 9 55 around about 38 67. And just a very momentary for one boy when green, they went back to pink. And now I think it's getting ready to test because we've done the testing of the cut the arch formation. Now it's getting ready if there is a close above the arch high in this case, it's the price of 38. There we are. It's the price of 38 62. No, no. 38 53 75. If there is a closing price above that more for more than two to three bars, but I would like to say that if it takes out the other candle of like 10 o'clock with a high of 38 57.75, that's going to be a big deal. And then I can draw in the the arch going to a cup formation. I'll just show you what it is right now. I'm not saying this is active. But I would like to think that it could be active. So I usually put this in and I say they're always two fighting patterns. One is the cup. And the arch is the other. And sometimes they can just fluctuate like a sine wave going arch cup, arch cup, now we're looking at the chance that it 38 52 down for the E-minis. Finally, look at this. The manganese improving, the stochastics improving, on balance balance improving, relative strength is improving, nine periods gone over the 14. Maybe instead of the rectangle formation, it actually breaks out. We'll see. But it's stuck in the meantime until it really does that. So I like to say stuck in a rectangle formation a lot longer than your patients. Let's see if we can get out of that. So I'm showing you the overall picture. What is bad? What is what? So the dollar hasn't shown any sign yet other than the Chapman wave notation say just on a very short term basis leg E possible doji candle today. Maybe it pulls back a little bit. If you look at gold, gold down five at 1727. This W formation in the on balance volume with a stochastic at 7%. That's all very weak. The magdi histogram still very, very weak. The nine is way under the 14. It would take not just a reversal to the upside. Certainly a reversal in the dollar. Let's just exclude the dollar. I like to think of these things. Try to think of them all as separate separate beings. And in this case, if you're looking at the daily gold contract at down five now, you see how small the little candles are over the last four sessions, even though the dollar is making your time high. So let's exclude that and say, hey, the dollar is the gold is actually showing that it's done the one to one to the hasn't really done the one to one. I I thought I thought I think I might have done that with the GDX. Let me just do that right now. You see this pattern right here from the high at that peak E in the 1880s to the low of just under 1800. I can draw in a a line that says to the downside right there. Oh, the downside that it could says it could still go to the 1714 level on the area is a 1726. So that could be one to one to the downside. I'm not making predictions about this. I'm saying that's just a measured move in the Chapman wave arch formation when you dreaded H when you take out that left side low and then hold down below the left side law of importance that was the one in May that was it's on the continuous contract in 1791.2. That's important. Okay, so I've spent a lot of time on this. There's a left side right side price time match that says that by oh, it's this week by this week, the left side low all the way back to last year, August of last year of 1693 and the continuous contract this week, maybe next week. So within within a week of today, it could test the 1700s, watching it very closely. All right. So that just says everything is different here because the gold, when you think about what the dollar has done, the gold is still held very well, but on its own chart formation, it's not a great pattern at all because that weekly chart broke underneath the generally falling act support level, the the U that goes to a double U in the monthly chart is being challenged right now and I'll just do silver quickly because silver always has a slightly different pattern. Silver right now is silver leg D to the downside. That's a good sign in the notation, but that doesn't mean to say it has to have a ready from a a trustee, but in the meantime that's just a very poor, I said the monthly chart of continuous silver, it looks just terrible. So we've got that. If you if you go to the TLT, look at this, this is bonds, a nice move up $1.42, 115.86, that's fabulous action. Weekly chart did the one to one to the side, but then it went to a lower low. That makes it a rally above the 14 period moving average in the weekly chart right there. It's imperative if you think that yields are going to go lower to really help the market together with with with Krutor pulling back together with maybe the dog pulls back a little bit at least temporarily and that allows the Johnson and Johnson's allows the multinationals to rally. These are all maybes and we don't know. So you have to look at the price. The price action says if the weekly chart on any weekly basis if there is a touch of 121 and that's only six points higher, that's a lot of points, but if it does that in the iShares Treasury bond ETF, that's going to say besides the fact that it is the MACD has turned positive in the weekly, the stochastic's come off a single digit low, it's at 24%, that on balance volume is not particularly good, but there are some signs, the histogram's improving and that 0% line is turned positive. There are some signs in the weekly to say you could have a little bit more of a rally and bonds so yields can come down. Wouldn't that be important? That'll help the housing market and I just need to show you this if I can remember what I'm looking for. T and X, this is the 10-year yield. Look, that yield's made a peak F in the weekly chart, a peak D in the daily, a leg C maybe a peak C in the monthly 10-year treasury note. Well that just says that it's 29.24, 2.94%, 2.924%. It is below what was a high and I don't like to type it in because I always have to change it because this is a continuous contract, 34.83, 3.483 and now 2.294, that is much better, all right, there's not a great risk, much better. To look at wood, which is the ice shares, a global timber and forestry ETF, that is a heck of a move down, but if you look at the monthly chart, it's not bad after the massive move from under 40 to just under 100 and now it's trading at 74, 25% pullback, but that goes together with high-grade copper and high-grade copper. Another international monetary and economic benchmark is trading down today, down 3.31. So what I'm saying is that there's such a mixed market that for subscribers, I'm trying my best to get us into just positions that have the chance to defy any general meat, market weakness and move higher and that's the way we're doing it right now before we get aggressive. I don't want to get aggressive until I feel a lot more secure. Dow's up 69 and the S&P's down 55. Yeah, that's a divergent service all the time. Now I'm going to go to the questions. 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Whether you think the Biotech bull has room to run or has run its course, trade LABU or LABD, directions daily S&P Biotech three times bull and bear ETFs. Visit directioninvestments.com slash biotech today. An investor should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing. The prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares. To obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus, please contact direction shares at 866-476-7523. The prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor Foresight Fund Services, LLC. So the question was, where is support? So the question really is, in my techniques I use three basic patterns, straight up, straight down, cup formation, arch formation, a mix of the two. This is one in three where it pulls back sharply, makes an arch formation, fails at a peak A or a B, and then it comes down, takes out the left side low and goes much lower. But sometimes if it holds the left side low, it can make another arch formation. So it looks like a lowercase h, going to a lowercase m. Well, low and behold, and then what I said when I typed into the den, what I was looking at, I was saying, once it forms the h pattern, if it holds the left side low, and then makes another arch, until it takes out decisively the arch high, in this case it would be up into the 70s, 273 area, this is important because it's in its own momentum. It might not even, it might not even do what the market's doing. It's just in its own turmoil. It's trying to figure out what the heck to do now. I've been, you know, such a huge move down, sharp move down, makes a dreaded h to peak C, becomes C minus because it plunges below the left side low in about the 65 area, goes down to 56, and now it's trying to rally, it's rallying to the 70s. That's a good percentage move, but then it pulls back and now it's trying to rally again. So just think of this, and the key thing is, yes, correct, where is the key support? I said 62s, but actually on a purely technical basis, based on the Chapman Way methodology, this low that was made on the 30th of June of 59.08, you take that out and then there's a really good chance you're going to test the 56 level. So it's really important on a very short-term basis today, so 63, 13, I would say the 62 is just near-term, but think of it in its own, own, it's done with the chaos. Now it's trying to resolve that. So the upside momentum showed some trigger of support, and even now it's support, but support's not good enough. You want it to be able to explode to the upside. That's the most important thing about support. I've seen what we have stocked today that we picked up because it was doing so well during the turmoil, and I said to myself, there's a chance, I'm looking at a lot of, it's in the biotech area, but we've looked at a lot of biotechs that have done fabulously, but the pullback that they've had from any pullback in the last two days has been for some of them quite severe. Most importantly is that this particular issue that we've got, the momentum of the entire, I've got the generic, in other words, I've got all of these biotechs in this particular area, and that says, yes, it could pull back today if there's strength elsewhere, but within three days it should find its upside momentum again. That's the way I'm playing these things. So we got, I said yesterday's buy it on a dip, we didn't get the dip, well it did, but it didn't get your uprise, and today we got our price, and that's all you can do, you do your homework and we, now you'll see what happens. So the same thing here, so my point being that unless block ink from this square, training it 6440 right now for $1.22, unless it finds its own momentum to break from the sideways consolidation and rectangle formation can last a lot longer than your patients, that's what you're looking for. You want upside momentum to be reinstituted, the magnum is good, stochastic's okay at 60%, you want the stochastic to get to 75% and then quickly to 82%, you will see square really move to the upside, until then it's just kind of stuck, so I think momentum is really the issue here in terms of a position you might be having, or in your case you're going to be using out of the money puts, oh for Friday, ooh, I didn't see that for Friday, that's just three days, you see a rectangle formation can last a lot longer than your patients. You do your homework because you know you just asked me whether the supporters and the 6062s, okay, where's the breakout on a very short-term basis, that's really what you want to know, and the breakout is look at this in the 120-minute chart, peak A, peak B, peak C, peak D, it's pull back, your objective in whichever way is a buy mode, takes you to at least a peak D, the last one is peak A, B, C, D, it went to an E, so you're to get to at least a D, and then you can see a sharp pullback, well we got that, and then you've got your D and a sharp pullback, so you want to see by Tuesday afternoon, by Wednesday at this time during the show, you want to see square trading at about 65.85 to 66.35, if it does that and it can hold into the close, say tomorrow preferably today, but let's just say tomorrow, as it says by Friday you could have a test on the 70 level, so that's the way I'd look at it, I hope that helped you. Next question came up, I'm not sure if that's, oh that's for at Tommy, all right, well it says Apple, because three people have asked for Apple, so I'm going to put Apple in here, look, Apple is on a leg C to the upside, it's had a really nice bounce off the Chub Wave inside track support level in the weekly chart, the MACD is improving, but it hasn't crossed positive in the weekly, the stochastic is improving, but it's only at 25%, on balance of volume is really terrible in the weekly, but fabulous in the in the daily, so I'm suggesting to you that this is B right here, that is C, usually in a buy mode, and it has to be a buy mode because 93% in the stochastic is fabulous and MACD strong is fabulous, 9% over the 14 is fabulous, that if Apple in the next two sessions, that's not today, I'm saying Wednesday and Thursday, if it's able to touch 150 strike price, it's at 146.85, if it just, not even 149, if it can even touch 149, that's going to be a really good sign, especially if it's still in leg C, but your big hazardous resistance level is in the 151 to 152, 151 area where the higher on the 1st of June was 151.74, if at any point it gets to 150.80, the 152.65, 200 period exponential moving average will become a magnet, it's been repelled before, it hasn't got there, but the second time around as it gets closer and closer, the more you go from repellent to magnet in the 200 period moving average, and that's also the 14 period moving average, right now it's touching, so this is so for saying Apple, this is a pretty decent move, and you think Apple was at 182 back in January, and the lowest 129, that's a 60 point decline, that's a pretty decent decline, but if you look at the monthly chart, it's not a bad pattern at all, so Apple's holding much better than many of the others, XLK was mentioned as an indicator, see the XLK is doing the same thing as many of the stocks, the same as what the square, it made that peak aid pullback, it's the same as the Dow, everything needs to break above the high of the space in late June, and if the XLK can change into the 134-135 area in the next by Friday, that'll be a really good action, that's a big ask, I'll be back down to the 49. who's deep understanding of technology and the markets allows him to consistently find and share winning trades, support and resistance define the ranges at which stocks trade, by understanding these trading ranges, David White is able to find a path of least resistance, David White's trading newsletter, The Path of Least Resistance is delivered daily before the markets open to make every trading day an easy win, visit TFNN.com today and subscribe to David White's ultimate trading newsletter for $119 a month and try all of our newsletters risk-free with our 30-day money back guarantee, take the path of least resistance at TFNN Educating Investors. 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TFNN.com Educating Investors on the Front Page of TFNN.com If the E-mini at any point starts to trade in the 38-68 area for more than 10 minutes, then the higher the day of 38-76 becomes a target. If it starts to trade under 38-38 for 10 minutes or more, the upside has a real problem. My thinking right now is that we've got just too much ease with which the market is being pushed higher and pushed lower. That's just an indication of tremendous uncertainty. Those are the prices. Rather than if the market tell you a quib, a question that became in, the iShares, China, Internet, ETF. Yeah, remember the cup formation can go to an arch formation and now it's on its way to test the lows, which will be in the 29s and it's a 30.09. So until it resolves that, it's just kind of stuck. Let me just do this. I think it was a question that came in. Yeah, I think that this is kind of a holding pattern for now, but my bias is looking at the upside just because the individual particulars that I'm focusing on, and as I said, the data chart has just gone L, which means the 9 has finally gone above the 14 period moving average. First time since about June the 6th or so when it broke down up in the 30, almost, what, 32,800. So this is a good sign, but today's young. We're not even an hour and a half into the session. Make sure what you want to see is the Dow is holding a plus 135 or more after two o'clock and that'll be a good sign, not plus 40 or minus 50. You want to strengthen and that'll help the general market. So I hope you have a wonderful day. I'll be back on the late one. Thank you very much. Thank you Larry.