 Hi guys, um, so I just wanted to make a guess a video on something interesting and It's a little bit really kind of you know price action and Being and I caution the word Emotional right because it can have obviously negative connotations to it and But in this context, I don't mean it in you know a very negative way or anything like that I just mean it in maybe more of a reactive Scenario when it comes to price and it takes a while to really you know kind of catch yourself When you do this right and I see this pretty much all the time and and spank Who says who said, you know, wow the pounder sold off hard? OMG I'm glad about with those trades in good profits, right? Yeah, cuz I think it was last week We were and I'm still long on that um that that that pound Swiss trade as well, but the point is is is that It's all a matter of perspective and really kind of understanding was what's going on in so far as You know the pound right so in price action is selling off now um You know on on the surface, I guess, you know just looking at a point blank It looks like you know the pound is is selling off But we're not driven, you know in the group by you know price and what we shouldn't be driven By is price. Yeah, and again, it does take a while to To really kind of figure this out and kind of catch yourself in in the moment So heading down to maybe something like a one hour chart, right? And yes, the pound has moved. It is a fact that the pound has moved You know for maybe about what's that 100 or 200 sorry and 64 pips in this space of Four hours and when you consider All the other candlesticks small candlesticks, you know that it does look like a massive move but but first of all if you're if you Or we I guess Really want to be a buyer at a pound although the pound is subject to It being Well put it this way the bank of England is still on the interest rate hiking cycle So as long as they're still hiking to me, it's still the pound is still a buy only against obviously certain currencies right not against every single currency, but Um if you know prices are moving, you know pulling back, right? Um a does it really matter? You know how prices pull back if you're looking at long trades right if you're looking at levels In and around, you know daily demand zones or you know capture pay relief zones or stop hunts Does it really matter how prices pull back and I get it as far as you know You know you potentially taking you know profit And it was a great, you know profit taking You know you timed it, you know, right if you timed it at the top, right? Not everyone's going to time it at the top, but but in the medium to long term that's like that That's kind of like short term In many ways, it's a bit of like short term thinking if you understand if you have the confidence that the pound may go even You know, maybe a couple hundred pips higher. So You know prices pull back and they pull back sharply which provokes an emotional response from traders You know, you know who pretty much is saying oh potentially this could be a reversal and You know that they potentially, you know should have taken profit. So if they did take profits, then they're glad they did, right? But ultimately this could have been one of those moves, right? This pullback could have been one of those moves where in real time before You know, uh, we knew that prices, you know, they went higher that could have been considered the same, you know severe type drop. Yeah, but then Uh, you know prices ended up going higher, right? And I'm not saying that You know that that that's gonna happen here. I'm not trying to this is not me trying to predict where price is gonna go right now But you know the one of the points I'm trying to make is is don't be Try not to be driven by what short price does in the short term if you have a long term medium to long term view on On on on price and the fundamentals are all risk sentiment because it doesn't really matter at the end of the day Um, these things are going to happen in an uptrend. You're going to get pullbacks, right? Imagine the same thing happened down here, right? At some point, you know, traders would have been going short Right here If you consider all of the smaller candles below it traders who are driven by price action would have been like, oh my days You know the pound is setting off. I'm glad I took profits here Right or wherever you took profits you took profits there took profits there And then, you know, you would have missed out on everything else Yeah so Again, we know, you know, we have a you know, the probabilities are on our side as to why we want to be a buyer of the of the pound and a seller of the Japanese yen, right and Prices are going to pull back. They always will Um and to the degree that they pull back Or how they pull back Shouldn't scare you out of the trade if you understand Um, you know, again the fundamentals of this sentiment in the medium to long term. This is this is really the point I'm trying to to make and even in this one, right? There would have been again another sell-off right another sell-off Which would have had traders, you know saying to themselves like glad I took profit, you know Depending on where they got in and there's an again I'm not saying that you shouldn't have taken profit because it's always and you should really have your profit targets set ahead of time, right? And where you potentially want to take profit. I'm saying that you should have held You know on during all this time if you didn't understand what was going on fundamentally and definitely have You know profit targets and take profit along the way But to the point of you know, if you were driven out of this trade if you were scared out of this trade Let's say, you know, you had your long-term view and nothing changes, right fundamentally, but then you have Um a drop like this happen Yeah, and you're sitting at the the computer screen and wondering why this is happening. Yeah And there's really no narrative. Nothing's really changed fundamentally risk sentiment wise. Everything's just as it, you know should be et cetera Then why get out of the trade? Right, this is where fundamentals and understanding, you know, risk sentiment and what really is driving the market as far as value Um, is the but is the pound cheap against the uh, is against Japanese? Yeah, and this is where it helps you because a lot of times you can't believe or you know be driven by what you see You know with your eyes because the markets constantly being And I don't and I don't want to say manipulated, but it's it's it looks like it's being manipulated Simply because of and you would think that if you don't understand how the markets work But from for example a market maker perspective, this is a business model, right? This is actually a business model This is what market makers and institutional flow and institutions have to do in order to This is this is this is their business model, right? This is what they do And so some people might call it manipulation if you understand what's going on It's not really manipulation, but the point being is Is that these things are designed to scare traders out of, you know, of their trades, right? Um, and you can see again how how much higher prices went from there If you don't know what's going on if you have no idea what's going on Fundamentally and risk sentiment wise and can make certain choices to you know to hold on Then you're going to miss out on you know these these massive, you know moves and again going back to where We are What has this got to do with? Uh, you know our trades, especially if we're going we're looking to go long, you know at certain demand zones, right? If if prices are coming down sharply, that's that's better, right? We get we get we can potentially get a A pullback in the buy trade sooner, right? If it if it takes forever to come down then it's going to take a bit longer um, but either way regardless of what happens In the price in the opposite direction to what the way that we're looking to trade if nothing has changed If nothing has changed you're looking on Bloomberg you're looking on um, you know on on on Financial times or Reuters or anything like that and you don't see anything Then to me it is what it is and i'm not saying again Don't confuse me saying this with um our prices are going to go higher or are going to go lower Nobody knows right nobody. Sorry nobody knows What price is going to do in the short term? But what's likely to happen in the median term as long as the british pound is you know continuing to high crates and as well risk sentiment. Yeah continues to remain less Then it is honestly i don't say less but maybe you know coming more towards maybe more risk neutral um Then obviously the pound should be a buy In in that in that scenario, but again just as a reiteration So he's no wrong words today as to to reiterate I guess What i'm really want to want to say as well is that um, this is not a recommendation to buy or sell The pound for me again is probably one of the currencies that I am very cautious It's like a cautious buy. So i'm not putting you know my normal position size on the pound i've explained this um on I think I did a A post on it last week one second. Let me find it. Yep. So here we are and here is my recent You know analysis on the pound on the 25th and I said everyone So here's my most recent thoughts on the pound in the short term. I think the pound is still a buy Is it the best buy I wouldn't put it ahead Of the dollar the new zealand dollar the cad or even the australian dollar at the moment And that's due to rising The rising potential for stagflation this year Of course stagflation could happen to most if not all economies, but with the uk I've been reading some articles recently and their economy could be hit sooner rather than later Yes, the bank of england is still on the hiking cycle, which it gives support to the pound But i'm keeping an eye on continued rising inflation which can affect Can Have I should I should have put the effect of hurt in the economy and causing stagflation So if the rumor starts to indicate that the uk is headed for stagflation Then my bias towards the pound will change currently the pound swiss has come down to an interesting level Which now looks like a stop hunt setup the cpr zone I was watching didn't give me an entry this morning's news Although I focus on pound as a whole or just a gdp as a whole And less on things like retail sales wasn't great But it adds to the narrative of the slower consumer spending cost of living due to higher prices rising inflation Which then brings the stagflation scenario More into focus just to reiterate I I still think the pound is a buy against swiss and the yen at the moment But my usual position size is going to be reduced Is going to be reduced On pound long trades until positive signs of uk economic growth emerge right so again going back to the chart Again that that was from the 25th so again from the 25th prices You know when it still went higher, but again just looking at from this from a daily perspective and I'm watching my Weekly technical analysis video For the for the group members, you know Ultimately, you know, we do want we do want prices to pull back into a demand zone and how they pull back into the demand zone Is neither here nor there if that price is You know the price action is not driven by a change in fundamentals right or risk sentiment So, you know, that's pretty much it. But if you want to have again an idea of of of, you know The whole analysis behind the pound yen then just watch the video I put out earlier In the members trading Trading video channel. Yeah, but uh, but yeah, just just be very cautious and be aware I guess of you know of of of Looking at price action As and the meaning of price action because not every single Large move. Yeah, that happens in the market Is going to be some sort of reversal. So and again, I know you're learning this spanking everyone else watching this Um, but this is uh, you know part of I guess, you know, the mentoring, right? Is what I provide and just to maybe to give you a different perspective as to you know, what I think is going on So so yeah anyways guys, that's pretty much it And I'll see you in the group