 Good day, fellow investors. A stock that has been a team on this channel for a while for the last few months, even earlier, I think, is Gatsprom. And Gatsprom really exploded in the last month because of some changes in the dividend policy, in the direction the management is going. And I really want to give you an update on what am I going to do with my holding. It's now public that it's my largest position as of today, I think. And I want to really discuss this from an investing perspective and then see, okay, what does an investor do when things like that happen, when a stock jumps 50% in a month. And that's it. So let's start with the latest news and how am I going to approach that. If you want to dig deeper into the stock, please watch my video with Sven, with fellow researcher, independent researcher, Sven that we did a few weeks ago. And then there is always the bad scenario, Gatsprom video, the negative view that I made in December. But despite that, I still bought later. Let's start. So the news is the following. This came on Bloomberg a few days ago. Gatsprom CEO confirms plans to move to 50% dividend threshold. So 50% of net income. And that is a huge change. But this is something that has been brewing for a long term because other companies in Russia did the same government owned. And it's actually a legal requirement for them to pay 50% of net income in dividends. This was a follow up on the publication from Sberbank, where they raised Gatsprom to a buy based on the new dividend policy. And they see the dividend growing to 14 or 15% yield on current prices in 2022-2025. So a lot of positives. And I can assure you that the dividend yield won't remain at 14, 15% if everything develops as it's currently planned. It will go down to 5%, 7%, 8%, which means there is still a lot of room for the stock to appreciate. Just on the latest news, the management characterized the first quarter of 2019 as moderately negative. But the company still made close to $10 billion in the first quarter. Not surprisingly, everything, all the news over the last month, that that's how usually comes to value investing. You have a long line of nothing, nothing, nothing. And then the market gets all the news together, a few good memos from the management and boom, this stock explodes and it's up more than 50% just in the last month or something. So this is very significant news. It is a big change. And when something like that happens, the key is to go back to your initial research and why did you buy the stock in the first place. So and then compare, okay, what's going on, apply that to the scenarios you made in the first place. And I made four scenarios when I looked at Gazprom when I made my buying decision. One was, okay, nothing happens, the dividend stays at 45%. Then there was the best case scenario where the dividend yield, the dividend payout is increased to 50%. Then there was a scenario where the dividend slowly grows over time, but nothing spectacular. And then there was always the Russia terrible corruption scenario, you lose everything. I attached 10% chances to the bad scenario and the others in proportion because I couldn't have known six months ago that this or that will develop. Those are let's say political decisions. But I was happy with the three scenarios where I said, okay, the worst thing that can happen is that over the next 10 years I get the dividend yield of 56%. Plus there is always the 10% chance that I lose everything. And I looked at the upside, potential upside, potential downside, the value of the assets and I said, okay, even with all the bad things surrounding Gazprom, I thought it was a buy. Okay, now we are 50% up. What do I do as an investor, not as a speculator speculators, they already sold much, much earlier. I had a lot of comments, oh, you should sell it now because it will drop so much. And then it actually went up. So I didn't play on that. I'm still holding my position. I just made a small trade just for portfolio balancing for managing the risk in the portfolio where I sold the additional shares I bought when the stock dropped somewhere in April. I sold that. So my initial investment is still there in Gazprom, bigger now, but I'm focusing on something else. If we look at my scenarios, as I said, I had a bad scenario, 5% yield and no change. Then the present value for me was $2.5 for Gazprom. So 50% decline from what I initially paid. But here is the good scenario, the positive scenario. I was looking at Rosniewt. So they also had a huge capex for investments and you can see their production going up the gray line and their capex declining. So this was my, okay, Gazprom will probably, the government will probably do the same. They want the cash through dividends. And that's exactly what happened with Rosniewt. The payout went from 35% to 50%. And then we have to see whether Gazprom's Bearbank and Gazprom Nhaft will also increase to 50%. The next inline is Gazprom to be increased to 50%. And I wrote, if that happens, I would expect about 2 trillion rubles in profits per year, at least, which could lead to 1 trillion for dividends or four times the current situation. This was written in January. So we could expect dividends of $1.2 per share or a yield of 25% on January prices, thus $5 per share. And the best case is actually materializing as the management said that they increase the dividend two times higher than the dividend of 2017. And to conclude their presentation, he would like to mark the following. Despite the significant growth that Gazprom shares enjoyed in the course of this month, so they are focused also on the market capitalization, we believe that there is a further significant upside for our capitalization. Once our new export projects come online, further upside in the oil business as well as high dividend yield and the potential to see the increase further. I would like to underline it now that in the nearest future, we expect to reinforce on the investment relationship side to bring home to the investment community our near-term strategic goals. From that, the current dividend yield is 16 rubles and that's 25%. If we use the normal, the current year earnings of 65 rubles per share, then the dividend will again probably double over the next few years. And that's bearbanks scenario where we see a 15% yield on the current price, which is already 50% higher than what I paid. So my yield will be above 20% on my initial investment somewhere down the line. And now what do I do? I have a company, okay, I have some money, but I have also the yield, which is currently 8%, will probably be 13% on the current scenario, but for my investment is 20%. And then I'm thinking, okay, I can sell it, take the gains and look for other opportunities. But that makes me a speculator. Investing, value investing is still boring and you get paid, you reinvest the dividends and you slowly accumulate, you compound your wealth over time. And that's exactly what I am going to do. I'm going to take the dividends, look at my portfolio, see where can I reinvest them for the best compounding method. Whether a stock goes up or down doesn't really matter to me as I'm looking to build a long-term portfolio where we get, in the long term, we get higher and higher dividends, which could say that I'm a dividend growth investor, or we get higher earnings that are reinvested at a good return on invested capital. So I'm looking to become a better owner, have a larger, larger ownership base of businesses. If stocks go up and down from an investing point perspective, I really don't think that matters much. And especially for Gazprom, I really, I think I'm going to sell it when there is exuberance. So when there is a full dividend payout of 50%, everybody's so happy, everybody's excited and people are willing to accept a 5% dividend yield on Gazprom, then I'm going to sell. That target is still, I think, a free beggar away. So now we are at $6, $18. And it might happen over the next 10 years. In the meantime, I get huge dividends and when there is really overvaluation exuberance, then I might change for something else. And this is the strategy. And I think such strategies, investment strategies really lead to best returns over the long term. Further, also there is a floor of 27% of net income as a payout. So that has also been increased, confirmed. And I think that, okay, the scenarios have really skewed to the betterment of this company. Just to mention, there are still risks. Nothing has changed. It's still Russia, still anything can happen, depending on the political moves, what's going on. However, a lot of positives have happened. Putin has recently met with Xi from China, strengthening their relationship, more export for Russia, more imports for gas for China. So the world is going on. There is the gas, there is the people who will use it no matter where in the world. So it is a lot of positives. And just maybe we might see this continuing to be a great investment like Buffett held Coca-Cola, even if it went up 50%, 100% over the next few years when he bought in 1988. But still, he's now getting a 60%, 70% dividend yield on his initial investment, which he reinvest. So just building a compounding machine is what is really my goal with this one. Therefore, I'm not going to sell my position just because it went up 50%. So to summarize, the main message is compounding overtime. I see so many that solved Amazon five, six, seven years ago because, okay, they made 20%, they were happy. You know what was the result. So if you have a good compounding machine, if you understand the risk and reward, if you're happy with the negative scenario, I'm happy with the 5% yield from Gazprom for the next five, six years, because I'm an investor. Five, six percent, it's okay. And if there is an option for upside, that is okay. So thank you for watching. Please check my stock market research platform if you wish to compound with us for the very, very long term, if you wish to own businesses for the very long term and let the businesses deliver your long term returns. Thank you for watching. Looking forward to your comments and I'll see you in the next video.