 Hello and welcome to CMC Markets on Tuesday the 29th of July and the weekly market update. And once again we've still got what I would call a little bit of divergence going on between US markets which continue to make new highs, they continue to make new highs last week and European markets, notably the DAX which continues to slowly fall away from the highs that we saw earlier this year. Now it's been a fairly quiet start to the week this week thus far simply because we've got a significant data deluge starting on Wednesday. Now what have we got on Wednesday? Well we've got the ADP Employment Report, we've got US Q2 GDP and we've got the US FOMC Rate Decision and then on Friday we have the non-farm payrolls data on the 1st of August. So a significant amount of what I would call event risk going on. But I think more than anything I think the expectation is that given the fact that we're expecting another taper of $10 billion, the pressure will start to mount on the Federal Reserve to outline some form of exit strategy with respect to when it's going to raise rates. And we're seeing that reflected to a certain extent in the Dollar Index. Now we haven't quite yet hit the highs that we saw in February this year on the Dollar Index even though we've made new lows for the year in Euro Dollar. Why is that significant? Well Euro Dollar makes up 57% of the Dollar Index so the fact that the Dollar Index hasn't actually made new highs for this year could actually be significant in the event that Euro Dollar bounces back and we do have a significant amount of European data out this week as well. We've got manufacturing PMIs from Italy, Germany, France and Spain. Now investor sentiment in Germany is starting to look increasingly fragile simply because of fears or concerns about Russia sanctions and I think that largely accounts for the fact that we're getting a bit of a drop-off in European markets and the DAX in particular. I'm going to look at that, I'm going to look at the DAX and look at some of the key support levels on that particular index and as part of the US Dollar Story I'm going to revisit something that I looked at two or three weeks ago and a potential reversal in Dollar Canada because we saw a significant reversal on the weeklies and the dailies and I'm going to look at where we could possibly go to from there. To finish off it's also a fairly big week for banking stocks. Lloyds and Barclays in particular in the UK the key question is will we start to see a significant uptick in profitability or will we be weighed down by the same concerns about declining revenues declining investment bank revenues and increased litigation costs. So let's start with the Germany 30 or the DAX as we know it better. Now on this daily chart you can see in front of you we can see that since the highs in July we've been slowly seeing lower highs and lower lows. Now that suggests that we're finding significant upside progress that much more difficult and that's certainly being borne out by the sentiment data the German IFO data last week was particularly weak and the ZDW data as well. Now the PMIs on Friday will be I think significantly important with respect to the support level which on this particular chart is at the 200 day moving average. Now we've broken the trend line or we've encountered a minor breach of the trend line from the March lows but we haven't really pushed down beyond that pullback line from the highs that we saw in 2014 which is now currently supporting the price action. So if we look at the 200 day moving average and we look just below the 9500 level I think that is a very key support level in terms of the current uptrend in the Germany 30 so we should be aware and keep an eye on that. Before we move away from the Germany 30 let's have a quick look at the client sentiment and we can see from that that clients remain I think fairly evenly split with respect to buying and selling interest on this particular market. Now obviously these numbers can change on a minute by minute basis but so far today the long interest on the Germany 30 is actually down around about 7 or 8% on the day already and that's not really altogether surprising given the fact that we've seen a significant push higher today. So going forward client sentiment remains evenly split which suggests that clients are particularly undecided as to the future direction of this particular asset. So let's talk a little bit about the dollar story and the fact that the US dollar does appear to be starting to make gains on the upside. Now a couple of weeks ago identified a bullish weekly reversal on the Japanese candlestick charts and we bounced off a significant trend line from the lows in 2012. Thus far we've held above that trend line and the likelihood is that while we continue to hold above that trend line the uptrend is likely to remain intact. Now let's move on to the daily chart. From the daily chart we can see that we've broken the downtrend that's been in place since March but we are now currently pushing against the 200 day moving average and what we want to see now is a push through the 200 day moving average which is around about 108.40 to signal a further move towards 109 and potentially 110 and I think what will likely provoke that type of move is a continued improvement not only in US data but also speculation surrounding the timing of a future US interest rate rise. So let's finish off with banking shares. It's a big week for banking reporting this week. Last week we heard from Royal Bank of Scotland and they posted better than expected results for the latest quarter. On Wednesday we're expecting Barclays latest update and as we can see from the chart in front of us here since the news broke that Barclays was being investigated for irregularities surrounding its dark pool trading we have seen a bit of a bounce back but we need to fill that gap. Now that gap is circled on the chart. We've bounced off support earlier this month at around about 202p and that was a 61.8% retracement of the entire up move from the 2012 lows to the 2013 highs at 312p. So while we hold above 203p, 202p there is certainly potential for further rebound. So keep an eye on those numbers tomorrow morning, Wednesday morning. They could well provoke a little bit of a bounce back but do not forget that there's also an awful lot of event risk with respect to litigation costs and also concerns about drops in investment banking trading revenue. Let's finish off with Lloyd's Banking Group. Their results are out on Thursday, Thursday morning and as we can see from the chart in front of you this daily chart, solid support at around about the 70p level. That's going to remain the key level. Again Lloyd's have been at the mercy of regulators with respect to litigation and further fines but given the fact that we've seen a fairly good economic recovery in the UK and Lloyd's Banking Group is essentially a play on that I'm not expecting too many surprises from Thursday's results. So keep an eye on that support level. That's going to be key to the future direction of this particular chart. Okay, so that's pretty much it for this week's weekly market update. All that remains for me to say is we have a webinar on Friday non-farm payrolls. I will be hosting it along with my colleague Colin Szynski and we will be covering non-farm payrolls between 115 and 145 on Friday. Please feel free to sign up and listen in.