 Okay, very good morning. I hope everyone is doing well. It is Tuesday 31st of March Before we begin with the briefing just wanted to have a quick word about Amplified trading because I know there's still quite a few people who watch our briefings on YouTube who are a not subscribed to the channel So please do be much appreciated Hoping to grow our community further particularly stateside as well as in where we're based in in London in the UK We managed to cross to 10,000 subscriber mark not that long ago So it'd be great to build out the community if I had some really fantastic comments actually Over the last couple of days So remember you can always drop a comment on the on the video and I'll always reply throughout the day Whether it's about us as a trading firm or whether it's about markets in general On that point then a quick look at this is the company website As you can see here just a couple of shots of our our main trading floor in London But obviously given COVID-19 as you can see I'm not sat at work. 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Well, actually volatility wise things have died down Quite a bit as we go into quarter end obviously today the last day of March and Q1 So definitely keep that in mind I guess as we go through into the second half of the week interestingly Having a conversation with someone online actually on the YouTube channel in some of the comment section We were talking about the quarter end and perhaps this little bit of a bump that we've had in equities Which has resulted in this type of movement Which is the S&P being on pace to post four up days in five sessions Now is this a little bit of reflection of the fact that equities have been so beaten down over the recent weeks and particularly the first Quarter that portfolio managers are just looking to kind of rebalance going into the end of Q1 and then from kind of Wednesday onwards do we start to see then a bit of renewed run on markets if we are to see any downside materialize again But you know looking at this morning things are a touch more positive Let's start with the S&P 500 here and just have a quick look You can see here Just marked up the chart from some of the recent price activity that we've had so since the Fed's announcement of measures And I mean look where we are now We're back up to retest those highs that we're seeing right at the end of last week and if we take that low Really from really this time last week or Monday last week to where we are at the moment was still up about 20% or so and you can see in the overnight Asia Pacific session We've had a test and rejection of that resistance point from where we were trading on Friday and we're going into Thursday night Friday session Up at around the 34 and three-quarter level So definitely now that's the the kind of range to keep an eye on as we go forward throughout the rest of the day Would be here this kind of movement You've got those highs that were seen on the 27th So this was Friday's high and then also the Retest that came late in session before the eventual collapse that we saw into the Wall Street close The end of last week so markets responding a little bit to that around those levels in the early European entrance this morning To just to find that near-term range that could be quite interesting to watch on the upside obviously early break high on the downside Probably some of these lows that was seen over the course of the last Day so would have been yesterday evening in the futures market Scaling back down through that 2600 hand or if we're to push back lower If we go back higher Let's have a quick look Here just widening the charts out a little bit. You got obviously the 2700 handle which would be the next kind of More bigger psychological level on the upside, which isn't that far off So if we just look at 2700 you can see the market has responded to that before Given some of the big volatility that we've seen in recent sessions Particularly in around mid-March and you can see how the markets also responded to that as a bit of a floor-in-price activity Before in the earlier part of the month So some some bigger levels there coming in if we were to go on the other side and continue to push on To the upside but as I said a little bit of mild risk on I'm going to get into the Chinese data That came out overnight, which was quite strong But with that then as you can imagine gold a little bit lower this morning There was a trend line we were looking at in the briefing yesterday And you can see that that's still being respected to a certain degree and the Asia Pacific session having already broken through it Yesterday afternoon it came back up tested around that point and now we're just keeping an eye on that Would have been Friday low. You can see it's had a an attempt late last last night But any I'd be keeping an eye if equities do remain quite buoyant. Do we get a bit of a push on? Breakdown to here perhaps targeting then the the s1 Bounce back and then for the prevailing move back down targeting these kind of areas Which would have been the low point that was seen back on what last Wednesday Thursday type level But again conducive of equities and sentiment still remaining relatively bullish on the commodity front Pretty similar actually oil prices have oil prices were interesting. I was actually looking at my charts last night I did see the rundown in oil that came shortly after what would be the traditional kind of market hours So to speak so around half seven and What we broke down Through the lows through $20 and saw a bit of an extended run in price and we actually printed a low down at 1927 And obviously when we start looking at these longer term price levels You know that starts to bring in another look down to these very depressed points of going back to 2001 but After that close, you'd see a ramp back up and then overnight the Asia Pacific session You can see a bit of a short-term descending training line there break above And we just remained quite bullish on the back of the the Chinese numbers that did come out Which we're going to have a look at shortly from an oil perspective Obviously a couple of interesting things were developing yesterday some source reports suggesting Coming from Trump that he's going to look to get involved if you like within this Saudi Russian confrontation, he's going to look to have consultations with Vladimir Putin I do think somewhat Trump now If you think about what's going on just generally in the world At the moment oil prices is still very low by historical standards and You know one of the things about becoming the most biggest producer in the world is that you almost become Now part of the same game that Saudi and Russia have which is the price of oil starts to become quite important as we know now For me the US have said overnight that there are roughly about two weeks away from peak virus in the united states So things are going to get worse before they get better and I think that's going to lead to more quarantined areas across The united states and therefore the implications that that can have from a demand perspective in an already Weaker oil price and this price war that's going on With the OPEC plus at the moment So I would expect quite an increasing amount of headline risk to come out for the oil market coming up in the Next few days week or two When I mean by headline risk, I mean something serious coming out that can bump the price back up higher quite aggressively Because I think Trump knows that there's a risk here prices could Drop quite substantially further and a more concrete follow-through through 20 leads us back down to the kind of 16 type area Which would be particularly troubling for all producers involved So I think Trump's trying to get ahead of that hence why you saw the source comments yesterday. I think there's more of that to come Saudi is still being quite stubborn I think some of the things I was hearing this morning on the squawk They were talking about still committed to increasing supply by about 600,000 barrels per day going into may So maybe a little bit less than what they were internating in that ft report a few weeks ago But russia seemingly a little bit more willing to come to the table now So definitely this is an evolving story and I think After what was a little bit of a range price activity here Include all through the best part of last week having broken down again again It re kind of kindles this necessity to try and now Cultivate a bit of a change in in the current status from these parties that be given the downside risks that are on the table So yeah, that's my kind of overall assessment with with that and then in the currency markets sterling A little bit weaker But both major pairs are down in euro dollar and cable as you can see the dollar index is up about two tenths A little bit of a blip down in cable overnight, but nothing really too meaningful behind that and the uk gdp has come out this morning But this is forced quarter data. So it really is not important. It's very backward looking You know how the uk was performing then has absolutely no bearing on the pound today when we're very much focused about How are we going to perform in now q2 going forward In terms of the euro currency um The euro currency has broken that kind of trend channel that we were looking at here on the 90 minute candlestick Yesterday, you can see after the breakthrough that came around midday yesterday We did come up to retest it in the afternoon and again close to it in late in the us session Before then the price broke down a little bit further We've had a failed move through that kind of s1 Perhaps keeping a close eye on that given not only the the test this morning and the s1 level But there's also the high print that we had back on the 18th So we're interested to see already a few pips away from there about 10 pips at the moment how it's going to react Okay, so let's get stuck into some of the headline stories um And let's start off with this one Why is there some you know kind of a moderate degree of risk on attitude to markets this morning? And this is the world health organization They have said overnight that there are signs of some stabilization in europe's coronavirus outbreak as the hardest hit countries in the region italy reported the smallest number of new cases in almost two weeks um european nations that continue to move to tighten restrictions to fight the the virus Conte the Italian prime minister is working on another new stimulus package this time aiming for around mid april to be Said to be around 30 billion euros This is to accompany for the initial measures worth 25 billion euros So again these governments continuing to do this kind of mindset of whatever it takes at the moment which you would say despite the Accumulation of debt which is going to put the kind of credit worthiness of these countries under a bit of pressure As we saw with the downgrade I think it was fit on the uk on friday Really, I think the markets can digest that without too much too many issues Given that you know, that's is what is necessary at this point in time The other country spain that was one obviously we were looking at yesterday They've just been particularly in focus and this is a uh an updated look at the ft's tracker looking at the cumulative number of Of deaths and what we're looking at here from a visual graphic kind of point of view is the trajectory of these Cases and deaths in these different countries And spain has announced plans Last night that they're tightening restrictions on public life further They're ordering those who work in non essential services to stay at home during the easter period but you can see here That I guess the the positive thing is that although these numbers are still moving Up they are getting slightly more shallow at this point Mimicking kind of the the shape of what we have seen in china Actually from one of the most steepest ones that have been inclining of late Which is kind of still off the radar somewhat at the moment is india They have jumped up quite aggressively here more recently when actually look at their their data As a specific country Other areas which I think are quite key Of course in the united states new york city they did report a 16 percent increase in deaths in six hours Overnight so that's Particularly troubling that is an area which so far Trump and the u.s. Administration have kind of held off of doing any kind of extreme lockdown measures To what we've seen more mimic toward That in mainland europe But you would say that that's probably only a matter of time As we were looking at some of those those graphics from yesterday where you can see the kind of national expansion of the outbreak And overnight it was suggested it's going to be two weeks until the peak So definitely I do think that this is still something which could You know the kind of the big risk at the moment to this seemingly Bottoming out of this market route that we've had the wild card still remains the development of this virus And that's not to say as well We still have to tackle the issue about when we have containment So if you think about the next kind of three to six months We are right in the middle of the initial storm at the moment But then naturally as the virus peaks and then starts to become more shallow The next big critical test that the market will have Globally is this whole return to work. I mean, how's that going to play out? Given the fact that there's going to be huge fear about a second wave of new transmission of the virus and and so this definitely is a A much more protracted longer economic theme That perhaps some were thinking at the beginning but for the moment in terms of the overnight things are looking a little bit more positive Now one of the reasons as well is this you've had the german manufacturing PMI data come out overnight And to give you the numbers the chinese manufacturing activity in march came in at 52 Versus the expected 45 so it was much stronger than expected and it went to 52 the previous was 35.7 So that's a monster jump up Going from the largest contraction since around 15 years ago And springboarding back up into an expansionary territory as far as the PMI is concerned and this is what that looks like It's kind of v-shape Important to note though a couple of things Although this was much stronger than expected and certainly has helped a little bit with the oil price and generally with equity sentiment Yeah, definitely The new orders PMI is still in contractionary territory. It's still sub 50. The employment one's just a whisker above One of the things that just reading around the data point from overnight that they're saying is that firms In china are still reporting funding shortages and falling demand in february now think about it Now if we reverse back a couple of weeks ago China their economy was significantly weakening Because of the virus now if you think about it that was because of the domestic nature of it being in their country And the ability then for workers to be active in factories in terms of the manufacturing of goods Now it's a it's a different but similarly economically damaging issue Which is that of the global economy elsewhere out of mainland china is now being hurt And what china needs is the buyer i.e. these countries from external who are Importing these chinese goods to be actively but purchasing And that's just not happening and won't be happening anytime soon in any type of size and so Although this is a kind of positive short-term signal. I would say Probably a little bit early to really jump on this and think well, that's the end of it And this is the now meaningful kind of recovery of the chinese economy. I think you got two things to monitor here one is the global ability to import chinese goods going forward given the repercussions of the Growing still expansion of the coronavirus particularly the us being one of these most important trade partners and the fact that they've They're still two weeks away from From the peak and then the second thing Is that of which chinese workers are still set to really fully return to work? It's been gradually happening But how does that play out in terms of any risk of a second wave of a virus is breaking out? One of china said well, this is that global times editor hu zhijin And he did tweet a couple of hours ago Having a little bit of a pop at some of the chinese The congress and the us politicians said won't china to compensate for us losses in the pandemic One it has no legal basis at all two china today Is no longer a country that the us can willfully coerce and extort A few us politicians. They better stop daydreaming so Yeah, absolutely the you know the kind of forgotten macro topic I guess is that these were two countries which really defined much of 2018-19 from a global perspective I mean obviously being based here in the uk brexit and the uk election was a dominant theme But ultimately that that coronavirus which sits top of the pyramid at the moment of the macro drivers That undoubtedly had been the trade war for the past two years before this pandemic came along And this isn't resolved at this point. So Anything like this that starts to grow again in this hostility between the two nations Particularly not forgetting trump has an election to manage in only a couple of months time I think it's going to be something to also Keep an eye on the more this breaks down the more it can almost exacerbate the negative conditions that we're seeing at the moment on a more global scale Interestingly, though jumping over to washington the white house and congress are said to be weighing Another stimulus, you know, it's quite incredible really and This was the one that we saw I know it's a bit small, but hopefully I can talk you through it I did post this graphic via my my twitter handle so you can see it here If you do want to have a closer look you can get the graphic But this is looking at the coronavirus aid relief and economic securities act otherwise known as the cares act This is the one that passed last week that saw equity markets surge higher on the back of this two trillion stimulus in america But what's quite neat about this infographic as you can see where just generally the money is going So if you break this two trillion down, you know Individuals last large corporations small businesses But then what exactly within each one of these kind of categories is the funding going to so for example Of the two trillion 300 billion is going to cash payments to american citizens essentially That does comprise of then for individuals 30 of the entire two trillion stimulus And as you follow it through you can see lots of different breakdowns that one of the important things here And what they've been talking about overnight with this new Top-up if you like a further stimulus Is this idea about Specifically considering aid for mortgage markets and travel industry As you can imagine these are two of the most hardest hits if there is going to be as we've seen Last week jobless claims in america up 3.2. I've seen estimates of this week. It's going to be up at 3.5 Non-fond payrolls is going to be the worst contraction since 2009 And it's only going to get way worse next month as well as the unemployment rate starts to surge And so defaults or risk of that on mortgage markets The pressure on the mortgage market is going to increase and the travel industry as we know has been under pressure Ever since this pandemic began So officials compiled lists of requests from government agencies in a total What's according to people familiar with the matter around 600 billion Dollars to top up further to what we've already seen. So yeah, again, that could well help Offset any further negatives again, if they just keep throwing hundreds of billions of dollars For the moment again, the market is not thinking about that several steps down the line debt burden That the american or any national government is going to have with the stimulus package of what they're thinking about is addressing the near term existential threat if you like to the economy And at the moment these are seen as more positive than negative in that in that sense Okay, quick look at the calendar and I'll let you guys get on with things. Uh, so we've already had the chinese data again decent surprise on the upside but I I don't think you should read too much into it beyond just this short-term reaction that we're seeing But obviously further economic stimulus could be forthcoming That is a positive The who are saying that their science of potential peaking in some of the european key nations with the virus I Italy and Spain getting closer and so these are these are good signals at least for the intro day Going further forward We have the german unemployment rate change coming up Just before 9 a.m. This morning in london And then you've got the eurozone flash cpi number Coming out at 10 o'clock expectations at 0.8 percent euro in the year slight decrease on 1.2 percent seeing last month and into the u.s. Session We get the chicago pm i again likely to be a fairly depressed number 40 dropping from 49 with a range of 35 to 46 35 That would be incredibly low number By any stretch of the imagination then u.s. Consumer confidence also expected to take quite a decent hit as well When that comes out later on this afternoon I guess with a lot of this economic data coming out from the u.s Markets have largely priced in a lot of this One thing i'd I guess i'd be watching is just making sure you're aware of that analyst range of the data Not so much focusing on the median estimate, but more the lower bound of the range and how much by how much of a deviation Did we break away from that? Low end pessimistic estimate on the street I do think there's there's some risk of some quite big misses coming up But perhaps it's going to be more evident as we go into next month's data Just given the fact that the the virus has only really started to pick up in north america over the course of the last two Two and a half weeks or so Then got all of the trees in the afternoon as per normal with supply coming out italian auctions happening throughout the morning All right, that is it That's your briefing for this morning. So I hope that's useful Again, don't forget to subscribe to the channel if you don't already and I wish you a good day ahead. Thanks very much guys