 Hi, my name is Liam Rowe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180 comm and welcome to this week's supply and demand Forex and gold fundamental and technical analysis if you are new a warm welcome to you And if you're returning an equally warm welcome to you and before we get started in the fundamentals and technicals and I guess the the news coming up this week and the week ahead so wanted to really present I guess a fundamental analysis webinar proposal to you guys and If I get a hundred likes on this video normally I get about 50 maybe 60 But if I get a hundred likes on this video, I will do a free fundamental analysis webinar and really go through the steps that I use To really kind of My approach to fundamental analysis and it's not just a simple You know looking at Forex factory and seeing if a data news data release is you know positive and means by if it's below The you know the forecast and so it's nothing to do with that. It's really Understanding the rules to the fundamental game and it's not not I don't think anybody really talks about it on YouTube too much But it's the rules to the fundamental game And I'm gonna show you the really the step-by-step analysis that I use fundamentally in order to You know Decide on where the trend is going in the medium to long term and many of you who've watched my videos Can just see recent examples of that for example one on the dollar, right? I've been saying, you know long dollar for for ages against certain currency pairs mainly against pretty the Swiss franc and the and the Dollar yen and more recently the actually more recently But the euro dollar was always a was always a short and there were moments where it kind of wasn't but generally I've been saying pretty much a week in week out long dollar and you'll see in the result of that on the price chart We'll go over that so it's all driven by fundamental analysis and I'm gonna show you pretty much How I go about doing that so a hundred likes in this video if I if I get that then within a next a couple of weeks I will sort out a webinar for you guys and And yeah, I'll sort that out anyways Let's get into the the week ahead and going to trading economics Looking at the week ahead All eyes turned to the US employment report next week Which is probably which will probably show jobs growth accelerated in September as well as worldwide services PMI surveys and an OPEC plus meeting say OPEC plus OPEC meeting that is Expected to offer guidance into the coalition's production plan. So that's going to be quite important US employment is definitely going to be something to watch and I'll go into why in In a second we get into kind of the nitty-gritty of the charts and there's some deeper fundamental analysis Elsewhere key data to watch for include US foreign trade balance and factory orders You're a zone retail trade UK house prices Australia business morale in Japan household spending and current account Central banks in Australia New Zealand. That's going to be Important one and India will be siding on monetary policy Australia not so much because I think both of the matter of fact it's pretty much known what they're likely to do and If the Australia basically surprise or if New Zealand surprise and a surprise for the Australian Bank, I guess the RBA would be if they were to potentially hike or cut rates Yeah, because they're expected to hold in if the New Zealand dollar who were expected to hike rates Don't hike rates, then you know, there's there's some trading opportunities there But for now, you know, the market has pretty much priced in these Rate hikes or holds so no real major surprises Probably on the day because again, the big money is pretty much made their money and there would be retail traders who are lagging behind And Gonna get smoked really if they if they really thought to buy and sell on the announcement. Anyways Yes, we've got some we've got some market moving news this this this coming week So let's get into really the the technicals and some deeper fundamentals on the Starting off on the dollar index the XY and the dollar index. So again Really been talking about, you know, pretty much long in going along on the dollar, especially recently I've been talking about long dollar from way back in June around here when the Federal Reserve We're talking about, you know tapering and you've pretty much seen what's happened, right? But last week during FOMC and in fact, I kind of break it down in this video right here Which is called Forex news trading mark masterclass done on the 25th of September. Actually it was recorded I think it was on the 22nd or something like that Live FOMC euro dollar analysis and trade setup and in this video I go through why You know, I was a long dollar especially against, you know, the euro and really kind of break down the news on that one, but And it's really worth worth a watch So any kind of supply zones that you were looking at trying to show and you wouldn't really been shorting on the dollar index You would have put it been looking at, you know, a dollar cross For me, it really wasn't, you know, the pair to really go short on right because ultimately Price isn't driven by technicals, right? There are technical factors, but it's not driven in the medium to long term By by technical analysis, there's no You know supply zone or demand zone That's going to stand in the way of if the market thinks that this is a bargain area, right for the dollar There's going to be more buying and more demand. It doesn't matter what stands in the way of that Yeah, that's the reason why supply and demand zones don't hold because the market generally thinks that it's not There's no value particular value there or there's a lot of value there, right? That's either cheap or expensive but getting into You know this week's important news in US growth Re-accelerated after third quarter COVID speed bump, right? So ING think that the consumer sector will lead a fourth quarter rebound in the end with the economy set to grow by close to 5% next year So that's really important and really why is that important and it's because it jobs will basically paves the way For a potential Fed tapering, right? So the Fed want the economy to be dependent They don't want to have to support the economy and print money which devalues the dollar so in order to taper they need to know that the Economy is self-sustainable, right? They need to know and one of the signs. I guess is Jobs one of the major signs is hiring and employment, right? So jobs is a major factor of a growing economy So the question is will jobs world US job numbers pay the way for Fed tapering, right? So You know, there's there's there's a massive massive Pressure I guess, you know on the economy and Really on the Fed right because the Fed could easily change their mind if if if the jobs numbers disappoint Then the Fed are gonna have to do will pretty much, you know We consider tapering which then the dollar will is probably likely to you know, revalue and and and set off But also as well You've got another kind of headwinds when it comes to the debt ceiling, right? So what is the debt ceiling and what happens if Congress doesn't raise it pretty much the debt ceiling and its creation in 1917 was supposed to make it easier for finance World War one Sorry to finance World War one by grouping bonds into different categories easing the burden on Congress to approve each Bond separately with World War two looming the 1939 Congress created the first aggregate debt limit and gave the Treasury Department wide latitude on what bonds to issue bonds being government debt, right? so at the moment, right, there's a there's a debt limit, right? There's a government debt limit and If they don't raise that limit then obviously there's gonna be Some problems, right because they need to because they can't afford, you know to kind of pay the the government debt right so the debt need the debt ceiling needs to be raised and My take is that they they they will they know they're not gonna have the you know, the Government debt not be paid and default, right? So the country default on its debt So that would just be cat catastrophic. So there's gonna be a lot of Politics around it, but eventually they're gonna come to some sort of deal But it is a headwind in the short term meaning that is a risk event in a short term and something you have to be aware of So if you do start to see the dollar, you know fall away doesn't mean, you know That it's not gonna go higher in the short term as long as they you know Deal with the debt ceiling which they you know are likely to for me I think if you are looking to buy the dollar and you want the DXY as confluence, then you're looking at This area here the 93 48 as your first as your first type of confluence Any move in that zone your prices start to turn up in there Then you're looking for some dollar crosses to potentially get long again It's not financial advice because ultimately you could see, you know the debt, you know if the debt Sealing doesn't get you know Raised then this is probably gonna go all the way through all of these zones, right? Also as well. It depends on Jobs as well because because jobs Again, as we know the jobs data Really kind of guides monetary policies. So if jobs disappoints as well, then we could see a really big pullback but ultimately you know, the economy should recover and You know this these are just basically great buying opportunities in my opinion For the dollar as long as the data supports the narrative, right? So the data has to support the narrative regarding tapering and potential interest rate hike So we've reached, you know Quite a high. We've also got, you know, some supply zones just right there But I think for now, I think this is probably the limit of the of the range of what, you know Dollar value is all about right over the past, you know year or so Yeah, because that has been actually a year from from September 24th. Yeah, so it's reached a 12 month high. Anyways So, yeah, lots to look forward to this week dollar yen No surprise that you've seen again dollar breakthrough these supply zones We have created now a bit of a Another supply zone up top not necessarily the strongest supply in the world But it's there And I think on nearest yet demand zone is all the way down here So unless prices start to make, you know, higher highs and then you get a pullback into that demand zone Which would be somewhere around here the nearest demand zone is going to be all the way down at the 109 areas now again the dollar or the yen strengthens on based off risk off sentiment so If there is any risk off sentiment or there is some bad news regarding jobs And in the US then you can probably expect in fact prices to really kind of sell off because I think The dollar is definitely at an expensive area. So there'll be a lot of profit-taking a lot of short trades coming in people trade is short in the dollar. So So, yeah, I think it's really kind of data dependent Similar thing with the dollar Yeah, Swiss again, we've had this nice move higher, but some kind of broken through that supply zones little one right here And again, not the strongest area of supply not by Not by a long shot, but at the end of the day, there is some supply there And again, I think if you are looking at buying any kind of pullbacks are going to be down into this zone right here It's a pullbacks and then it's at 9245 area 0.9245 And again similar to the Swiss. I'm sorry the Japanese yen It's more of a risk-off play. There's if there is risk off for example Any kind of coronavirus outbreaks or global Economic financial crisis, you know, you've got Evergrande, etc Then the Swiss Frank and the Japanese yen really would be the ones to buy but so for now I think the dollar is probably a buy until again the data doesn't support that narrative dollar CAD dollar CAD Pretty much going sideways. The Canadian dollar is actually picking up in a bit of strength Still might be a bit slightly early to look to buy the Canadian dollar But I think when it does turn around I think it should be really good Also as well, you have had oil making, you know, I think it's reached $80 recently and it's been going higher and higher So that's aided the Canadian dollar Meaning that if you want to be a buyer of Canadian dollar, then you're looking at, you know, short trades So if the if oil keeps, you know, supporting the Canadian dollar keeps going higher Then potentially you could start to see a bit of a, you know, a down move But ultimately you've got two strong currencies And two central banks that look into high crates, hopefully, you know Well next year or the year after competing with each other. So the trend is probably looking at, you know Stopping for now is pretty more of a ranging market sideways moving market or fair value In the short term, but again, it just depends on what goes on fundamentally moving on to the New Zealand dollar US dollar And there was a massive move on the New Zealand dollar last week And I do think that it was really kind of like a clear out, you know, the fact that The banks do want to buy the New Zealand dollar And I think a lot of traders would end up being long at this area here Right, of demand Right, with Traders looking to go long, especially with that nice Big outside candle, that engulfing candle Lots of stop losses below that and then it's just taking them all out Drawing traders to go short And now this whole area here between this low and this high is actually What is known as a bargain area, right? Because if this is expensive, if this area here is expensive This area is a bargain We know it to be a bargain in the past August the 20th Because prices went higher, right? That means making higher highs, higher lows So again, the opportunity to buy for cheap just before the RBNZ Look to hike rates, what better place to buy than at this level This 60, 0.688 level, right? So there you go But ultimately I would probably say, let me just get rid of some of these drawings They are, the New Zealand dollar is ahead of the US dollar So I think if you were looking to buy this currency pair somewhere You'd really have to wait for some sort of demand And if it pulls back even more, that's going to be a fantastic buy I think Or you're looking for higher highs, higher lows to be made And then a pullback into that demand zone before looking at getting long For short trade, right? Let's say for example the RBNZ do not look to high crates And you see prices drift up this week And then all of a sudden there's no rate hike Then there is going to be a very, very, very nice short trade Because it would have taken the market off guard As they are trying to price in I guess the New Zealand dollar hike Moving on to the pound dollar and the pound, right? Pound is something that I was looking to get short on Not necessarily on this pair But in the group we did some really good analysis last week Which worked out to be quite, quite a good short trade, right? This week and there was a bank, MUFG That was talking about going short matter of fact And we did that analysis last week in the group And it actually worked out a really good trade on the pound dollar But I was looking at getting short on another couple of pairs As far as mainly the pound New Zealand Which I didn't manage to get in, evolved in just yet But if the opportunity does present itself Then that would be the pair that I'm looking at getting Short on when it comes to the pound Now pound's obviously sold off There's some major I guess quite a wide demand And I'll probably say somewhere around there These levels have gone And what have we got here? We've got some bit of support as well Support here which has come in for that in that demand zone So if you are looking at getting short on this currency pair Which I probably would start to look for any kind of short trade Because there is a divergence now, right? You've got the pound which is not doing so well And we look at the fundamentals And the pound lowest level since 2020 As stagflation crisis fears take hold Stagflation is just simply when you have rising inflation But you don't have the you have slow growth Slow economic growth which is what stagflation is And so when you have a mixture When the stagflation word is used It's a tough spot for the central banks To really kind of do anything with monetary policy Because ultimately they have to ride They have to hike interest rates Based off of the economy as well Not just inflation So you have a US dollar that is doing decently And then you have the pound Which isn't doing so great, right? So hence the reason why you're seeing You saw that this week We have there's a lot of headwinds When it comes to the pound fuel crisis There's the furlough scheme ending to think about Energy crisis, you know what I mean? So there's loads and loads of things That was really indicating that You should go short on the pound this week And you can see how it's pretty much worked out But again if you do want to go long on the pound Now it's pretty much a decent level But technically again The path in these resistance is going to be to the downside If you ever see something like that Or a lower low And a pull back to a lower high Pull back to that zone Which creates should create some sort of lower high And then a lower low So that would be where My bias would be on this currency pair Moving on to the euro dollar And again euro dollar Said it again last week Around FOMC That really the play was to the short side And since that in fact Since that video prices have moved quite a bit In fact the entry would have been Just around here around this level This 1.175 area, right? And it's moved over 100 About 180 pips Nearly 190 pips since that trade And that was again was posted right here In real time, right? So it's not a hindsight bias trade It was, this was a live call with the members in the group And we went over this And pretty much from this trade idea That was about 180 pips to be made Anyways, again Because dollar is looking to high crates Or that's the rumor anyway Demand zones are really not going to stand in the way of that So now once it's broken down beyond that zone You're even looking at some sort of stop hunt potentially Which is definitely beyond the scope of this video But your next demand zones are going to be really down At these 1.14, 1.13 areas It doesn't mean that prices can't reverse From right now, right? They definitely can But from the perspective of You'd have to really kind of see prices Prices would have to prove that there's demand there Then that creates the demand zone And then you're looking for a pullback But until that happens Why, you know, why look to go long there There's no proof to the left A chart that there was ever It was ever really a great level Or a great zone or a great area To look to go, you know, longing, right? So no demand zone there So that's that out of the question But you're looking at nice little supply zone At that 1.17 Which I think is going to be a really nice area To look for any kind of shorts And then look for short trade right there I think is really, really nice I think there's lots of traders That would have got long here as well A bit of a CPR For those of you that don't know what CPR Means, Capture Pain Relief And how to trade it I think that's going to be quite a decent area as well So, yeah, I do like that Looking towards now the Euro Yen And the Euro Yen I do like this zone just below For a buy Again, if prices come down I think this level's been touched once What's been touched once Actually, it's been touched several times Matter of fact, if you drag it back from here You're looking at probably This is going to be the second time, right? Yeah, so there So that zone has been touched once, twice So this could break down Of course, there's no guarantee But the more times the level is touched The weaker it becomes So I think it could come down even further If it does, then brilliant I think that's a nice buyer I think as weak as the Euro is I think the yen is probably weaker I don't really buy the yen in the risk-off environment And even then it would have to be a major risk-off scenario Looking at more supply zones I think that's a nice supply zone To potentially look for any kind of short-trades Nice fresh area of supply But again, if we're in a risk-on environment I think the Euro is going to be a really decent buy Especially when they start to get their act together And their central bank becomes a bit more hawkish On rates and monetary policy Looking at the Australian dollar US dollar again, there was a decent Bit of a stop-hunt I should say The Australian dollar Think has the potential to outperform But for now, their central bank is very dovish And I think it's probably one of the last central banks Alongside the Euro to potentially look to high crates So unfortunately the Australian dollar isn't a buy yet Although technically this 0.715 area is absolutely lovely I really like that technically I just don't like it at the moment fundamentally But if you are looking to go long That's going to be the area to go long If you're looking to go short Then you're looking at a short trade Looking at probably right now So that would be decent for a potential short But again I think the US misses When it comes to their jobs report Then actually in fact this is going to be a really decent buy But it would be based off of really mainly Dollar weakness not Australian dollar strength Moving on to the The Aussie yen And Aussie yen again this week Bit of a range Reacted off of the supply zone here And then it's kind of sold off a little bit Use that I'll just probably just use this whole area Matter of fact again not the strongest area of supply But there is some supply in that At the top of that candle That might be worth a look But daily wise it's not great But I think from again a path at least resistance Perspective I think if risk is on I think any pullbacks to that demand zone Is going to be a really really nice buy Even better would be down at lows And again any kind of short trades Potentially right now probably say again Maybe above that 81 area for a potential short Or even that 82 That's a very nice technical trade I think But again it'd be more driven by Whether we're in a risk on a risk off environment And what you know I see a monetary policy But from a monetary policy perspective The Australian dollar is ahead of the Aussie Australian dollar is ahead of the Japanese yen So my bias would be more to the upside And finally gold Gold kind of bounced off of this area here on the I guess a dollar some dollar weakness And again looking at jobs Is going to be the major property driver of the dollar Which means that gold moves in the opposite Direction to the dollar So if the dollar starts to sell off Then you should want to see prices go to the upside But if there's any good news on the dollar Then pretty much the path again of these resistance Is going to be to the downside Gold prices are really going to be driven Lower by a stronger dollar at the moment So it's not necessarily fantastic for gold It's really kind of hold your breath Territory if you're looking to trade gold You really have to kind of believe that The Federal Reserve aren't going to hike rates And that inflation is going to get out of control And that the economic recovery is going to stop Which is basically stagflation Right? Once there's stagflation talk for the dollar I think gold would be a really decent buy But let's see what happens this week The jobs report on Friday Anyways that brings me to the end of the video And again just a quick reminder 100 likes and I will sort out a webinar For you guys really kind of breaking down How to do fundamental analysis step by step And it really opened up your eyes to how You should apply fundamentals to Technicals really first And how fundamentals can really guide you And it's just really for me anyway The only way to trade technical analysis Has its place in trading of course But for me my guide in light My North Star is fundamental analysis And then going down into the technicals Anyways take care Have a great trading week And don't forget to like 100 likes And speak to you soon Take care