 Hello and welcome back to the channel. Lots for me to get you up to speed on for the outlook for this week in markets We're gonna talk a little bit about what to expect from the G20 happening in Indonesia Also, the UK lots of information coming out this week Namely UK CPI on Wednesday expected to add to the already 40 year high level and knocking on the door of near 11% for inflation rates here in the UK You've also got the UK autumn budget coming out on Thursday lots of other things to talk about from an economic data perspective We're gonna touch on US central bank policy and also some commentary on that regard over the weekend from a central banker But also analysts at Goldman Sachs, so stay tuned and if you don't already Subscribe to the channel. Please do so. I know a number of people will watch this aren't subscribed So lots more videos coming throughout the week, but let's jump straight in and talk about the G20 as you can see here President Biden arriving in Bali, Indonesia And it's going to be dominated by two things here in the discussions for the G20 summit And that's going to be Russia Ukraine and also the tensions between US and China and on the latter There is actually going to be the first face-to-face Conversation between US President Joe Biden and China's Xi Jinping since the onset of the pandemic now They have spoken before but never in person face to face This is quite a big step in a positive direction Some might say and it does come in the context of China cutting off working Relationships in very key strategic areas of their relationship in the likes of military Relations climate change and this all happened earlier this year Of course because the US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi went to Taiwan for the first time in 25 years Which flared tensions at the time So quite a big deal and that's the real headline from this G20 summit Biden himself is going to be fitting in a relatively good mood about as good as she can be because last week Of course, we had the US midterm elections and on Sunday this weekend We found out that indeed the Democrats retains control of the Senate and also The control of the House remains unresolved at this point So the red wave really did not materialize and so Biden and the Democrats outperforming as we had known before The other thing I just put as a footnote that I've just seen is that Putin is not attending these talks in his place Was going to be the Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov However, I've just seen on the ticker tape a piece of information hit the wires that the Foreign Minister Lavrov Had been taken to hospital upon landing at the airport in Indonesia. However It's now been reported that he's left hospital. So I definitely just keeping an eye on this as it develops otherwise talking of the UK Very busy week as I said, let's talk about the UK autumn budget to start with and remember This is really important because it was only what six weeks ago or so that the UK market got rocked By at the time what was this outrageous? Plan that was put forward by the previous let's say Jewel leadership team of trust and quateng, but now they've been replaced We've got a much more kind of fiscally prudent approach by Chancellor hunt and obviously PM Rishi Sunak and hunt will unveil measures to bring down national debt Under control in the delayed what is now a more fuller autumn budget statement We're gonna get on Thursday around 40% of the savings coming from tax rises The remaining 60% then from spending cuts a couple of things then to be aware of here The bulk will be delivered in the final years of the five-year forecast to protect growth now According to two people familiar with the plans remember at the end of last week We saw the UK economy dip into contraction pretty much then the commencement of what's set to be a very long protracted UK in Recession for the next two years or so so what the government are doing here is they're trying to safeguard as you can see here They're Tory election hopes by not doing any radical spending cuts It's really gonna hamper then the kind of ability for the government to have confidence of the electorate And so they're gonna kind of keep away from that and then put in the more hefty spending cuts after the election So that's kind of reading through the kind of headline noise in terms of the other things to be aware of They're probably gonna cut 45% income tax threshold down from 150,000 to 125,000 Again, the PR spin on that is that those who could afford it should shoulder the biggest burden That should Raise around an extra one billion pounds per year They can extend current freeze and income tax thresholds for another two years up to 2028 And that's gonna add around six billion pounds And then they're going to extend existing windfall tax on energy firms by two years to 2027 and raise the rate from 25% to 30% that's going to generate an extra five billion pounds as well in income for the country As I mentioned away from this One of the other things is it's a very busy calendar from a data perspective for the UK Here's just a look at the last 12 months readings of UK inflation As you can see we've been sat up here at around 10.1% which is a 40-year high for UK inflation But on Wednesday for the month of October reading is it is expected according to those Analyst survey by Bloomberg to tick up to 10.8 percent but again, this is largely in reflection of the Rising energy bills that consumers have faced energy bills went up actually 27% over the course of that single month contributing into that sharp up tick that we're expecting so shouldn't come as a great deal of surprise and actually When you look at these numbers clean of more volatile components like food and energy So effectively the core number that is actually expected to slow to 6.2 percent from 6.5 percent The previous month as businesses sought to reduce costs that they're passing on to customers Against the weaker consumer spending backdrop. We're seeing at the moment The other things we're looking out for in the UK front. We've got UK jobs data on Tuesday Really interesting point put out by analysts at ING. They note that hiring indicators have begun to turn lower But so far there's been little to no sign of kind of mass redundancies that have been happening and firms continue to face material Staff shortages driven in part by rising rates of long-term sickness in older workers so kind of offsetting things meaning that We are going to be expecting unemployment to tick up over this long-term recession that we're heading into the UK But just perhaps not right now in terms of the numbers we'll see this week And then for UK retail sales we'll get that on Friday Expected to see a third consecutive month-on-month fall in sales as the cost of living continues to squeeze consumers And again, that really shouldn't come as too much of a surprise either. So the data perspective I don't think it's going to really carry too many Things that are really going to rock the boat the autumn budget. I think I wouldn't get too caught up thinking We're gonna get a repeat of what we had before As per usual with UK politics a lot of the information has been drip fed into the market as I've just outlined And then all of it seems I quote relatively sensible in this respect So I wouldn't be expecting any type of massive surge in yields like we saw last time All right sticking with the inflation theme one thing I wanted to mention was this I did tweet earlier My Twitter handles here actually if you want to check it out the Outlook for Inflation in the US by analysts at Goldman Sachs their chief economist Jan Hasse has put out a piece at the weekend and was basically talking about US inflation their team say Is likely to see a significant decline in 2023 And they say they expect core PCE measure to decline to 2.9 percent by the end of 2023 from 5.1% of what it is at the moment and they put that down to five key elements one softening of supply chain problems to a peak in shelter inflation peers and I talked about that on the podcast On Friday if you want to check that out Three slower wage growth for weaker commodity prices and five a stronger US dollar and on that tweet as you can see here I actually took a snippet a bit more Context around those points as well from the GS note if you want to check them out With that in mind though And I think quite an interesting thing is that we've had one of the Fed speakers come out Yesterday on Sunday feds walla if you've never heard of walla walla Is on the board of the FMC so has a voter every meeting this year and the years after but he is an outright Hawk so you'd be expecting horses hawkish comments and he hasn't let us down He said there's ways to go before rate hikes are done and of course this comes in the context of remember what we had last week which was the Weaker let's say you US inflation metrics which saw markets really spike very aggressively Last week. I think this is all pretty tactical to be honest I think the Fed don't want the markets to get too ahead of steam so all of a sudden that they should be pricing in Aggressively the rate rises are just going to stop. That's not the case. This is about downshifting the pace of rate increases There are still likely to be multiple more rate hikes to come But as like what GS was saying as inflation starts to really tail off as we go through the next 12 months Obviously, we're going to get to a point where the rate rises will stop pretty quickly in the first quarter Most likely of next year all things remaining the same One other thing I saw over the weekend's press just to cover which I thought was quite interesting was about the Chinese property market Obviously China is still very much in focus from a global perspective given the downturn that we're seeing in their economic growth at the moment We're still definitely keeping an eye on the COVID situation Some of the numbers last week were the worst we've had in many months and they continue to enforce their Zero tolerance COVID policy and that can have real economic impact not just on China, but globally So we do keep an eye on that But one thing that's come out from a more positive sense overnight is the fact that shares in Chinese real estate companies Rocketed higher overnight. I think their actual real estate index, which is a sub index They have domestically was up about 15% overnight and the reason why is a 16 point plan There's been issued to support debt-ridden sector has been interpreted as a real Crucial pivot from Beijing that could spark a bit of a revival in the sector The measures outlined in a policy document from the central bank and the banking regulator included extending a year-end deadline for lenders to cap Their ratio of property sector loans So seen of one of the strongest moves yet that Beijing wants to relieve pressure from the credit crunch has been roiling the industry And as such then a positive response on the on the back of that In terms of the week and other things to keep an eye on we do have from China of retail sales Industrial production and their latest jobless numbers coming up overnight. So when we go into the Tuesday session if you're based in the UK Tuesday we get the US Empire manufacturing PPI numbers. We do also get US retail sales this week on Wednesday you just move this down and That's expected to be driven by an increase in petrol prices Which have come down from the peak seen this summer But remain pretty variable at this point in time big retailers as well talking about retail sales are reporting this week Just flipping over here. You've got Walmart on Tuesday with Home Depot then on Wednesday for the likes of Target Lowe's TJX Thursday Alibaba Macy's Coles for example So some of the brick-and-mortar names in particular will be coming out reporting this week Which really then bookends the earnings season And then going back to the calendar a few other things to be aware of Feds John Williams little brain arts device chair speaks Alongside the SEC chair Gary Gensler who's always been quite outspoken on the crypto market and in the wake of the FTX Debarcle be interested to keep an eye on those comments Christine the guard also speaks midweek and then you've got your own CPI data as well coming out later on the week on Thursday with existing home sales on Friday from the US with that UK growth data as I mentioned All right, that is it. So thank you very much for watching Again, please do like and subscribe to the channel and I'll catch you for the next episode. Take care