 Okay, good afternoon everybody. This is Jasper LaMark Analyst going into our weekly market analysis webinar. Let's get through these risk warnings and then I'll crack on with the webinar. As always, feel free to shoot any questions through the chat or Q&A boxes in the webinar room. But otherwise, I'll be heading through some of the more popular products traded, namely the major US benchmarks, UK, 100, Germany 30, some of the major currency pairs, and some of the most commonly traded commodities. As you can see on the screen, you know, the timing, the opening of our futures disguises it slightly, but we're looking pretty green in equities today. And if you read my morning note, you know, that's probably not a massive surprise, given the huge turnaround that happened in the Dow Jones Industrial Average yesterday, sorry, on Friday. It was the biggest turnaround in four years, which is near no small feat. The Dow was down 250 points after the US unemployment report ended up the day 200 points. So, you know, a 450 point turnaround, pretty impressive. And obviously, European markets closed before a large chunk of that turnaround had taken place. So just a bit of catch-up today. Yes, it's a little confusing with the data, I know, because obviously it was a poor report, nothing really good to take out of it. Obviously, the economy is still producing jobs and the unemployment rate is still 5.1%. So nothing on the whole to complain about. It's just about the sort of short-term trajectory of where the data's headed and a bit of a weakening in the labor market. And so the market sold off just on the idea that that's bad for the economy, but the recovery was obviously on the idea that that may mean lower interest rates for longer if the Fed hold off on hiking interest rates this year. And, you know, if they hold off this year, maybe they just left it too late and they can't hike it again until the next cycle, if we do experience a bit of downturn in the economy, which there are signs that's already starting to take place in the US. So that's the state of play right now. The currency is sort of unchanged. The PMIs were generally pretty disappointing today. Just an FYI, I wouldn't have to update on the services PMIs. The UK services PMIs fell to a two and a half year low. So some of the weakness in manufacturing that we've seen for a while looks like it's spreading across into other sectors of the economy. So again, it's an expansion, nothing massive to worry about. But, you know, that's why we're not seeing huge gains in the pound as we're not in the euro either, because both Germany, Italy and Spain all missed expectations. There's only France who coming off a low base beat their expectations. So a bit of a sort of slowdown in manufacturing we saw last week, services this week. But, you know, the reason that the currencies aren't all dropping off, as you can see here, is, again, that sort of weak US data from last week. So it's weak in the US, weak in Europe, so currency is sort of level pegging at the moment. We'll dig into the charts, but we'll run a second. Oil's having a decent run at the moment. Gold had a big move higher on that weekday on Friday. So we're going to have a look at the chart on that to see where the prospects are there. Well, I'll do these markets caught in ranges, and good for range trading styles, where you're buying and selling at the top of the range. Otherwise, pretend traders, you're just waiting for that breakout, really. I'll bring up our economic calendar here. But really, you know, I need to bother because really all the big things happening economically are pretty much taking place on Thursday. If you're trading the Aussie dollar or the Japanese yen, maybe we're paying attention to the central bank meetings, the rate-setting meetings there for the RBA and the Bank of Japan, the BHA. But otherwise, it's all taking place on Thursday, which if I'm, that should be the 8th. So let's just gently scroll down here. We'll find ourselves on the 8th. And you can see that obviously we've got some kind of trade data from Germany, which is significant, obviously, for the euro, especially in light of the slowdown in China. So that's worth watching, but really it's the Bank of England minutes and rate decision. And we also have, I'm not sure if it's listed here, but it certainly should be, is the fact that we've got the ECB minutes released on Thursday as well. So that's the minutes from their September meeting. Not seeing that listed. But, and then later on, we have the minutes of the FMC Meeting and Act, typically it's updated in our calendar a little bit later too. So two minutes, two sets of minutes, ECB and the Fed, and the rate decision from the Bank of England all taken place on Thursday. So that should be an interesting day, particularly for the FX traders. I'll skip across to my charting view here on the platform. Here you can see that disappointing services TMI that I'd pop up here on the charting screen, ready to go with watching what's happening in the British Pound. Why don't we start with currencies? Now, this is the daily chart for the Pound. There's a few things going on here, but I think first things first you've got to characterize what kind of market are we in. The 200-day moving average has been downsloping, but it's starting to flatten out, and you can see the price is basically not being able to make any grain above or below it. You know, pretty much characteristic of range trading conditions, and in this particular situation, but often that little false break out there, we've got quite well-defined top and bottom to the range. Now, we did dip below on that week's manufacturing data last week. We dipped below this sort of 151.70, which I think is significant. So far, it's proved just to be a little bit of a false break, because we do have strong support beneath it. It's that May 5th low, or May 4th low probably, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of this rally from April through June. So, you know, that's our main, that's the main that we're looking at at the moment. You know, obviously the momentum is to the downside, but we're still not entirely out of range trading conditions. We're back above that kind of key 51.70 at the moment. Bit of, I think, what could be the determining factor that will end up making this a bit of a false break out is this bullish divergence that's starting to take place here with the RSI. We've seen a lower low made in the price chart, a higher low made here. There'll be a bunch of people in this kind of area who are looking for the breakout, short in this 51.70 type vicinity, and you know, they'll be looking to run for the exits if we get a bit of a push higher. We haven't had the data justification yet, but we do have that Bank of England meeting later this week, and there's a possibility that even though inflation has dropped back down to 0%, core inflation is still running quite high, not anywhere near the target of 2%, but wage growth in the U.K. has really picked up recently, so the three months ending in July, it was 2.9%. That's much higher than we're seeing in the U.S. If you're going on wage growth alone, again, something I mentioned in my morning note, your wage growth point maybe retails sales as well. Really the Bank of England should be raising rates before the U.S. Looking ahead to that Bank of England meeting, I don't think anyone's going to really want to go too heavily short at the pound, and we are at the bottom of this range. We're seeing a bit of an other side of urgency, so some scope for a move back into the range, the minimum back to this 200-day moving average, I would have thought. But you know, can't deny this rising trend line here. You know, that was a sort of a triangle type formation that broke out, touched back, and that's where we are, just struggling to push through into a lower low at the moment. So even if we get pushed back into the range, it's not to say that this can't be the development of a downtrend and pushed back down to the 146-type facility down to these lows. And I would say if we do concretely break through this low and then this sort of a little cluster of support around the round number of 150, then I think we're pushing into the lows. Over to the Euro. Now, you know, I want to draw your attention straightaway to this just particular candlestick from Friday. Now, that's a pretty weak candle on the face of it because, you know, that was some pretty terrible U.S. days. I mean, I say terrible, much worse than expectations, yet the Euro barely managed, I didn't even finish higher on the date, barely. It pretty much finished where it started, rallied 100 pips and just gave up the whole 100 pips plus and finished the day flat. So even if we get a little push into 113 again here, and, you know, who knows when we take up the higher bid. I think that is symbolic of some sort of weakness in the Euro. Again, maybe a little bit of trepidation about really pushing it higher, going into the ECB minutes this week. When the last ECB meeting took place, interest rates were, sorry, inflation was still holding at 0.2% year over year. So there wasn't an absolute emergency. You might indicate now now that we see deflation year over year in the Eurozone as of the latest figures. So maybe not quite the kind of panic amongst ECB members to suggest an increasing amount of quantitative easing or extending the timeline of the QE program. So then, you know, that's the kind of statements we'd want to be listening out for in those ECB minutes. That would be, you know, if there was any sort of suggestion that the policy could be expanded, that would be weak for the Euro. And I think that's why the Euro's holding off a little bit at the moment. I don't think we probably can see that, but there is a slight chance of it because that was only a week or so past that major volatility that sort of markets sell off because of fears of the China currency devaluation and the China stock market sell off. So certainly a bit of fear going into that ECB meeting, so they may have discussed raising increasing stimulus. If they do, I think that's negative for the Euro. If not, you know, maybe we'll get this, the kind of breakout that didn't happen straight after the week U.S. jobs number. Of course, the counterfactual to that is that we also have the FOMC minutes. And so obviously they didn't hike interest rates in September. So they may use the minutes. There's another opportunity to sort of suggest that they still are looking to do it this year. And that's what policymakers have been saying in speeches since the meeting, still looking towards possibly December. But they've been saying that all along. They've been saying if the data warrants it, we're willing to hike rates. Well, the data's not warrantsing it right now. So take that with a grain of salt. We've got to go with the initial marker reaction at the time. If the FOMC minutes are already much more hawkish than the sort of failure to raise rates would suggest, then there's some chance for dollar weakness and again more euro, sorry, dollar strength to make up for some of the weakness that we've seen recently in correspondingly euro weakness. But yeah, that was a wee candle and quite an worth mentioning that when the Fed did hike rates, that was this. We've got above that 114 handle. And then in the space of three days, we were right back down to the bottom of the range at this low at 111. So again, two big opportunities for the euro to break out. The Fed not raising rates and then a poor jobs number and it's failed to do so on both occasions. When you fail to act on weakness in the face of strong data, relatively strong data for the euro, obviously it's US data, but you catch my meaning. It's just a sign of general weakness. I think it's the best use of economic data. You can't forecast it. Just look at today's UK services PMI. Consensus was for an increase. It collapsed down to two and a half year lows. Economists often get it wrong. You know us as individual traders will get predictions of the numbers wrong, but you can look at how the market reacts to the data. And in this case, I would suggest that the market's reacting fairly weakly in the case of the euro to what should be a positive catalyst for currency. Now let's switch over to dollar yen. While we're on any currency, certainly feel free to shout through in the forum if there's any slightly more esoteric ones. I'll probably just, by default, stick here at the dollar yen. So as you can see, just real choppy range trading conditions. With the benefit hindsight, when you just wanted to buy at 119, sell at 121 over and over again, several trades involved there. You know, when you see that kind of big breakout, it takes guts to sell it back into the range again. But when you are in that range trading conditions, that's the nature of, that's the trade. And providing there aren't any huge gaps, the risk can be kept fairly minimal. You know what you're shooting for. It's within a reasonable margin of error. If it drops much below 119, it looks like it's breaking out to the downside, cut your losses, same thing to the upside. So worth considering these tight range conditions, because literally that's 200 pips either way, again with the benefit of hindsight. Minus a bit of spread, maybe margin a bit of, minus a bit of margin for error. Buying a bit above 119, maybe selling a bit below 121 sort of thing. But this range has been going for a while now, and it has to break out at some point. And you know, we're capped by the 200-day moving average. So that's, you know, it's above us. So that kind of puts us in a kind of bear trend scenario. Again, we've got this kind of trend line break, the retest, but we haven't pushed lower. So to me, that actually, you know, the fact that we're below the 200-day and below this broken trend line, we should be dropping off, but we're not. So, you know, it's, to me, I think perhaps actually we've got another push higher. Dolly Yen correlates quite well with equity indices, and they're all pushing into the top of their trading ranges at the moment. So maybe Yen and equities have another little push higher here. Okay. So let's change the base here. Let's skip over to some of the indices. You know, I just got it first on my screen here. So let's look at this UF30, our proxy for the Dow Jones, which obviously saw that huge reversal on Friday. And, you know, this is how we're starting in futures today. And, you know, this is just that beast, that little monster from Friday, where you can see we basically went down to the bottom of the range. Nice little buy just above the support at 16,000, pushes up basically right up to the, which I have as the sort of first layer of resistance in the range about this sort of 1600, 700 level. And I think it would make sense for us to, you know, it's a risky buy at this stage because we've already run up. But, you know, not to say to buy into the market right here, because, you know, your risk is much higher than your reward, but it seems logical that we would move to test that 16,700 level. And I think probably move through to test 17,000, judging by the current momentum. But again, that's not to get too caught away, caught up in the current movement, because you might have said the same thing here. We're getting a push down to the lows. Well, no, it was a false break low, we're back into the range again. So expect a possible roll over here at 16,700, back into the range or likewise back more, you know, a little bit higher back at the 17,000 level, which does correspond with this larger support from these lows here back in December and Feb. If I look on the weekly chart, you know, you could sort of see this support didn't work, but that's kind of where we're holding off at the moment. This support did work alongside the 200 week moving average. We've got this one, if we push lower, and you know, that's the one that we were just looking at that we sort of failed at on that false break higher in the 17,000 vicinity. Back to the 17,000, I still think it's going to be a struggle to make new record highs this year, but we've certainly been looking a bit more positive up there, and you could certainly say that the short-term trend's reversed and there be some short-term trend trading possibilities to the upside, I think, if we've got to that 17,000 level. Yeah, someone's asking about the S&P 500, so yeah, obviously our contract here for that is the US SBX, so I'll just pull up the chart. Am I going to be able to do that on this screen? No, I thought not. Let me jump over to my other screen. Down the SB has sort of swapping roles in terms of relative strength. It was the S&P that was holding the range a bit better. In the moment, it's the Dow, and I think to some extent maybe you could fundamentally say that, because if the Fed are going to hold off for a while on raising interest rates, the companies that are set to benefit the most are the more internationally-orientated companies that make up the Dow, just because you would expect if they are going to hold off rates and start to get more signs of that's the case, the dollar would weaken, and that would be good for multinational earnings. So yeah, this chart type. Here in the US 30, the level's a bit more sort of certain. Here I think we've got some sort of ranges to deal with, and if I just extend this one across, that's what we're starting to push back into here. I've moved that somehow. If you off that low, that's the kind of vicinity we're entering at the moment. I've got that break, but obviously you can see we just kind of remained within that. What's a fairly choppy range? And obviously we could run right up, this is kind of the equivalent of $17,000 on the Dow is up here around sort of $2,025 on the S&P 500. I think it's a good chance we get a run up to that, but based on previous conditions, we're up based on futures, one, two, three, four days in a row if you count today. So we're going to start running out of steam fairly soon, and we're into this zone. So I think there's some opportunities to assume that the range is still in place. Starting here, but it could admittedly go all the way up here. So it is tricky to actually just jump in the market. Yeah, I think the question here is through the chat is would you use $2,000 resistance? I think that's basically what we're trying to, the market's trying to do at the moment. That break out here, that was a false break of $2,000. And that's what we've basically been attempting to do is push through $2,000. So that's the kind of the center of gravity if you like, but that's not to say that's quite where the market's going to sort of fall away from and be your exact resistance line. As you can see on my chart, I've not really used that as the resistance. I'm kind of using these loads from back over here, which again, was sort of false pushes down to $2,000. Eventually those false breaks, we couldn't go down side momentum, couldn't work after four attempts, and that's why we pushed higher. So we may see the same thing to the upside here. That was kind of a false attempt. We couldn't even get up to it there. Couldn't even get up to it there. False break there. What about this time? This will be the fourth attempt if you like. Maybe get another little false push through. So it's that fatinity that we're dealing with for sure. And worth probably, given the fact we're in range of conditions, I was relatively RSI for overbought, oversold, but maybe even better is something like stochastic, because you could see when the market's getting overbought, and then just look for that to roll over. And it's going to be somewhere in that sort of $2,000 vicinity. Of course, if the trend begins, the oscillators are going to remain overbought, but that's the nature of the use of the indicator. It's just a way to pick out the top of the range. Of course, the top of the range could break. Moving swiftly on. So we looked at US markets. They, to be fair, are sort of driving the action. But let's look at the UK 100. Notable one here. Put this in the chart form. This is the weekly chart. This is basically a tweezer bottom, and a pretty drastic one at that. And the weekly chart, which is, you know, obviously when you're looking at charts, the higher the time frame, the more influential the price action. So this is pretty influential, and not much surprised to me that we're seeing a push-in to the top of our range here, just beneath that 300 level. This line looks a bit nowhere-ish on the weekly chart, the horizontal line, but it looks a bit better on the daily chart. And then we've got this, again, this kind of zone of resistance up into this broken rising trend. Let me just, if I can zoom out a bit, you can see, you know, that trend line. There's a few different ways to draw it, but that's stuff in that way, there, there. But, you know, it's not the exact, my opinion is not the precise drawing of the trend line. That's the key. It's the general concept of the fact that the line's been broken and we're challenging a retest of it. That's the board consideration. And then for more exact levels, look, you know, use the horizontal levels. They're basically in this low here, up into the sort of, the open from this, from this week of the July 5th, is the kind of area I'm looking at. To balance the daily chart, how many of the time? I think about five minutes left. But, yeah, we can sort of see that this is quite, a little false break there, but pretty much that's the area of resistance we're dealing with and we're right into it now. So we, there's a big move high last week. I wouldn't be surprised to see a little false break, perhaps down lower again, but maybe there's some opportunities down here into the range for a lower risk by, off that, of that weekly tweezer bottom. Obviously, the cancellation of the pattern, and you know when you're wrong, is going to drop through those two twin lows there, which marks the tweezer bottom on the weekly chart. Germany's chart, you know, putting the chart on this is potentially a sort of pretty choppy looking triple bottom. And the neckline of that would be these on 9800 level, which again, we're pushing into. So all the, all of the indices sort of confirming the same kind of idea. Of course, keep in mind, we're below the 200 day moving average. The kind of broader longer term trend is, is downwards, but quite a little triple bottom in the context of what is potentially building into a longer term double bottom for the, for the Germany 30s. So I sort of feel that maybe we haven't, again, if we scale out against the weekly chart, that's a nice rising trend line we've got there that's been working out well. And we haven't been able to push through that rising trend line. And that start of that double bottom on the daily chart is off that rising trend line. You know, just a few factors pointing to scope for, for expertise to push up high. In the case of the Germany 30, I think there's a good chance we push up into the neckline of what could be a daily chart double bottom, which would be in the vicinity of sort of 10, 10 500 really is the major line in the sand, I guess. And then we've got this little short term one in the meantime to look out for. So got a little bit of time left here just to cover oil and gold. Let's start with oil. Again, construction, I think to look at the weekly chart when we're dealing with this hit. Look at this. So this was the low after the big collapse. This is the low we put in at 45 on Brent. False break lower, big bullish and golfing candle. But the market's so bearish, we just haven't really built on that yet. I mean, it's a bearish sign that we haven't been able to immediately follow through on that strong candle, but it's understandable. The sentiment is so down on oil, but we've been consolidating for a while here. And there's a possibility that this marks the beginning of a double bottom in oil. Again, and not to say the double bottom pattern actually completes, but there's a chance that this bullish and golfing on the weekly chart was the beginnings of a pushback up to $70 per barrel. And again, there's that big reversal pattern, a big hammer pattern on the monthly timetable, which hasn't been followed through well, but the lows have not been taken out yet, not even the original low. So down to the lower timeframe, we're a very tight trading range, but there's some little expertise in a way. And so if we do get a push through this trading range, that's the kind of, to me, the short-term trigger that some of these longer-term supports are starting to hold out. But until then, there are opportunities at the top and bottom of this range. It has been going a while, though, so expect some false breaks if that range is to keep working. I hope to get all gold. Probably saving the best till last year because this is my RSI trend line. It's been interesting to keep an eye on this since this break, so obviously it remained within its sort of wedge triangle type pattern according to price, but RSI broke. It's held above $40, and it's held above this rising price trend line, and then this big old bullish engulfing candlestick on Friday after the jugs report. Certainly a few factors here for a breakout higher in gold. Again, you're just going to get these false breaks as we're below the 200-day moving average and the trend longer-term does not forget is pretty concretely down, drifting down. So heading up into $1,200, there are going to be plenty of sellers, and it's going to be a difficult way up, but I think there's scope for a move back up to perhaps that. Firstly, you've got to overcome the $1,170, so if we do eventually get a little break of this triangle here with the close above this trend line, you can obviously redraw the line basically that high if you prefer. It means the price, the breakout area would be a bit higher, more like $1,150, that could take you up to $1,70, and then through there, that would take us back to the 200-day moving average, and a lot of people start getting interested at that point, and a good chance we'd carry up to $1,200, and then from there, that's when... It's going to be a rough ride higher, but I think we're probably bottom for now in gold. It is my sense. Another thing to look out for is this 40-level on our side. We went to that overbought level, dropped down to held 40, and we're holding in this range. If we drop out of this range, not so promising, and obviously we've got this nice rising trend line here. Also, there's a little guideline as to whether our bullish thesis on gold is holding any weight. Prepare to accept when you're wrong, down through basically $1,100. I think you've got to accept that probably gold's going down to test the lows and perhaps breaking. So that's it. We've nicely got through the half hour here. I hope that was of some use to everyone here. Good luck with trading this week. Thursday is definitely going to be a nice one, in terms of the central bank action, but don't forget the RBA and BOJ before that. Again, good luck. Jasper, all signing out. Talk to you next week.