 and welcome to the 30th episode of Bird Noises presented by Bose and the Atlanta Falcons podcast about football and mostly everything else or as digital director Dan Gad says, or likes to say because Falcons are birds and birds make noises. All right, now that we've given some love to the sponsor and Dan Gad, let's get to our next guest. He is an NFL insider for CBS Sports and a senior writer for cbsports.com. Before that, he was the Washington football team beat writer for the Washington Post for six years and he served as the NFL Network's insider. Both more names can be seen every Sunday during this season on the NFL today. Jason Lockham for my friend. We've got a lot of topics we're gonna hit today including Terry Fontenot, Arthur Smith, the Falcons new regime in place. What does Jason think of that pairing and their short-term and long-term success? We're gonna talk a little bit about the NFL draft, what the Falcons might do. We're gonna talk about some NFL rumors and some things that could happen between now and draft day around the league including the Falcons. But first, welcome to Bird Noises. What's going on? You may hear some dog noises. I'm being co-opted. Hey, bird noises, dog noises. But no, thanks for having me. I'll try to keep the dog noises to a minimum and we do get a lot of action in this tree right behind me. So we may get some ambient sound bird noises as well. That's perfect. What do you think of that name, Jason? Bird noises. It works for me, man. I like it. Yeah. Okay. Thumbs up. Two wings up. Wow. Two wings up. There we go. All right, so just to kind of figure out where your head space is right about now, I like to do a little rapid fire. Okay. So I'm gonna say five words or phrases and you just tell me the first thing that comes to your mind. It's a dangerous game, Beaker. I know, I know. And so we have beeps and everything like that, so. Okay. All right. Matt, Ryan. I don't want to say the first thing that popped in my head. All things must end eventually. The new or coming NFL TV deal. Oh, straight cash, homie. The Sean Watson in 2021. New beginnings. Wow. The N.C. South. One of these things is not like the other. I'll go with that. Well, you know, I've only had a sip of my coffee but I don't need any now. This is good. The Falcons at number four, trade up, down or stay put? I think at the end of the day, they stay put. Okay. This is just a rapid fire mode. I won't elaborate this. Yep. Okay. We're gonna get into that. All right. All right, good stuff. So Jason, you've obviously fired or I obviously followed all the hirings and firings with the GMs and coaches this off season. Before we get into the Falcons, which moves surprised you the most? Could be GM or coach or both? You don't have to go deep in the weeds over it but were there just a couple head scratchers? The Texans search was bizarre by any standard. You basically had a lot of money and apparent power given to a team president and a search firm and you basically had the owner doing a parallel search on his own that involved one GM candidate and a head coach who certainly at that time wasn't, they hired a guy who neither searched really was sort of originally geared to get to. And they obviously went to war with their quarterback in the middle of it. I mean, David Cully getting this first opportunity to be a head coach under those circumstances, coming off a year in which the Ravens passing attack as someone who lives in Baltimore was under attack all year and now he becomes a head coach in those circumstances. I don't think many saw that coming, including Cal McNair and the Houston Texans themselves, but that's how it ended up. All right, let's jump into the Falcons. I thought maybe you might go up to Detroit and start talking about kneecaps, but let's go. They're delicious this time of year, I hear. I think this is, we're now entering peak kneecaps. Like if you're a kneecap hunter, this is your time. Let's hope they're good. They're actually taking an early spring just before the spring. Yeah, that's unfortunate because they need to be in season in the fall, right? Yeah, that's going to be a problem. One of many. So Falcons, what do you think of these two moves? What do you think of Terry Fontenot and Arthur Smith? You know, Arthur Smith was the one candidate that was on everybody's list. Terry Fontenot, first time GM, but kind of came up under Mickey Loomis. What do you think of these two hires? Look, I had heard Terry Fontenot's name very, very early in the process and I knew he's someone who they thought highly of. But then I talked to a lot of people in the know as well once the rule came into effect, the adaptations to the Rooney Rule and the idea of compensation. And there were a lot of people in the league who thought that might give the Falcons pause because let's face it, I don't have to tell you guys about the rivalry with the Saints and the Saints being in salary cap hell and the Saints needing additional draft picks more than ever and the potential to get two top 100-ish picks over the next couple of years, that's a thing, like that's an unusual circumstance that would be germane to this hypothetical or potential hire that wouldn't matter as much to a team that was hiring a coach from the other coast and the other conference, for instance. But obviously their process led them to that conclusion and to try to handicap these things, it is impossible. Which ones are going to work? Which ones aren't going to work? I will just say this, they have their work out for them. I think this is a team that you walk into some situations and a lot of the dirty work's already been done. They've already caught the cord with some players who the battle of the heart versus the mind. What is he now? What do I see him as in my mind's eye? What is his compensation? Now, what is his future compensation going to be? Is he ascending or descending? Sometimes you walk into situations where those decisions have already been made by the previous regime before they're let go. So I think this is a tricky little wicket that they're walking into because to me, this is a team that didn't really fully embrace what it was or where it was trending for a while. And I always go back to my previous team and I always go back to my econ one-on-one opportunity cost. It's not just the move you make, but it's the potential ramifications of the moves you get in me, which they're not walking into a situation where they have all these additional picks because the fact's been trimmed and guys were traded while they still had some value. They don't have a great cap situation. They don't have a treasure trove of picks that some other teams do. So there's certainly a lot of work to be done. Yeah, they've got to get in compliance with the cap. They've got six picks right now, Jace, and probably a couple of compensatory picks. In a way though, you gotta think it's kind of a good thing that they get to make those decisions with say a Matt Ryan and Julio Jones and some of those moves because then it's, they can't say, well, we would have done this or we would have done that. I guess you can look at it that way too, right? That they, they hold the keys and... You could. Truly do it their way. Yeah, yeah, I guess so. Okay. I guess if you were looking to get maximum compensation, you know, I think, well, with Matt, you're not gonna be able to trade that contract. I mean, that is what it is at this point. And even with Julio, with the way that contract set up down the road, you'd probably just be inclined to keep him and see what he looks like at age 33 or whatever. But I mean, I don't wanna go too far down the rabbit hole, but would these guys have even done the last extension? You know what I mean? Or would that have been maybe the time to trade them and you're drafting Ridley or whatever. So yeah, look, they have an owner who understands the situation. He knows they're not walking into a rebuild that's already been set up for them. And here's your, here's all your additional picks and here's all your cap space and don't do whatever you want. I think they will get that carte blanche blank check. Excuse the pun, from Arthur Blank at the appropriate time. But to me, this is a team that still has some tearing down to do before it really goes up. When you think about, you know, that we keep hearing about the short-term plan, long-term plan for sustained success, you know, obviously everybody that interviewed for these jobs have to come in and present, hey, this is how we can win now. This is how we win long-term. Just, you know, you've covered the league so long. You know, even when you have a situation like this, you can't predict, but with the core players they have, you know, there remains to be seen, you know, what happens with some other players like Alex Mack and that kind of thing. But do you think that the core is there if they draft right, is there a chance that they can, you know, especially with the expanded, you know, playoff format, sneak in and win enough games? They've been a seven and nine team. Two years, they lost 10 games last year by a score or less. I mean, you could, you are with y'all, but is there a chance that they can come in and compete and possibly be competitive this first year in your mind, realistically? Yeah, I mean, I guess it depends on how you define compete. Could they be playing games in December? Yeah, that's what I mean. A ramification to be in the mix for the extra wildcard spot. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, I mean, I think a lot of teams are gonna be in that boat. Is this a team that I think is poised to go on a run of a bunch of division titles and start ascending, you know, wildcard championship game, Super Bowl? Not that it always works that way anyway, but no, you know what I mean? I don't think so, but this is gonna be another unusual year. We don't know the off-season rules quite yet. You know, fans, no fans. Will that be the same across the board? Will it be different based on, you know, geography and local government? So there's a lot of variables. But look, there's in a league of that strides for parity, the field of what constitutes parity has been expanded, you know, by the additional game and by the additional playoff. So yeah, I mean, sure, could they be in the hunt for something in a wildcard? They could, but I'll just be fascinated to see the decisions they make and how, because there can be a lot of fools gold in that stuff, you know what I mean? So like chasing that and walking away from opportunities to shed salary, to pick up a pick, even if it's a lower pick and really build for the future, you know, which it's hard to mine both parts of that garden at once. And yeah, because you don't wanna be, you don't wanna be selling the message that, hey, we're kicking the can down the road and, you know, we're not trying to compete, but at the same time, you wanna be in a position for where you can really build this thing. Like if you're around 500 and somebody's peddling whatever, a guard that you think's an upgrade who's got one year left on this contract, you know what I mean? Are you trading third and fourth round picks to try to subsidize, you know, mediocrity? And then parting with a, you know what I mean? An asset that could provide five, four years of extreme value on a rookie contract and maybe play 10 years, you know, in the lead. So, you know, that, where are they, if they are like to your theory in the hunt in an expanded hunt, are they still playing the long game or do you start playing the short game? Right, right, right, right. Just trying to give them hope, Jason. Just trying to give them hope here. I don't know the answer to those questions, but that, you know, those will be little inflection points, you know, when roster cut downs are happening, and there's all these dudes on the street, you know, which way are they going? Trade deadline, which way are they going? It's going to be interesting too, because there is no cap number set yet. Right. We know what the minimum's going to be. And so that's going to be really fascinating too, to see like how many of these guys are going to take like these one year proof of it deals maybe? And they're going to pick, you know, what situations are going to be best for them where they can cash in after a season? Yeah. So I think the teams that really do their work there could really benefit too. Yeah, like you said, it's going to be fascinating to watch. What are your thoughts on the NFC South? Again, just, you know, there's so many unknowns. We don't know what the Panthers are going to do at quarterback. We don't know what the Saints are going to do at quarterback. We know what Brady just did, you know, with restructuring. How do you see, what are your just general thoughts about the NFC South right now? I think it's Tampa and everybody else. You know, as we speak, Tom Brady is working on a renegotiation slash extension. That's going to free up a lot of cap space for the Bucks. They have, and he won't be the only guy who probably ends up taking, you know, less than he could get if he played it out to the fullest on the open market than what he's willing to take in Tampa. You know, the Gronk will be back and it'll be, you know, a deal that everybody can live with. A B will likely be back and he's not breaking the bank either and there's a lot of teams that wouldn't even bring them in no matter what. So his market's already constricted, you know? And Dahma Kinsu seems to really like Florida and the no-state income tax in another year at eight million might be just right for him. So I think that's a team that's in keep it together mode. Yeah, for sure. And they're going to probably, they're going to slap a tag on somebody whether it's Godwin or Shaq Barrett. They may lose some people. Levante, David, they may lose some people but they've also drafted pretty well recently. And, you know, they got the growing pains out of the way. They know what Brady is, he knows what they are. That's a good point. They melted the scheme. There's some bird noises. It's trash day. So I know he hears the trash straw. Though the Saints, they're obviously in transition. Everything's cynical like we said at the beginning. Everything eventually has its end. Can they be better with James? And if they keep James, and I think they will, you know, does this thing with Breeze get a little messy if he decides he really wants to come back? Do you think there's any chance he comes back? I don't think there's a market for Jew Breeze. Yeah, I don't. Including really in New Orleans at this point. But they've got to reimagine themselves. And their credit card bills are due. You know, and we know Atlanta is in a transition and the Panthers are in year two of a new regime. But really year one from a front office standpoint, right? Because they let Marty Herney go in season and, you know, mix their front office up. So they're still a rebuilding team. I mean, they're not in contending mode. That owner will start spending big money on them this year. I suspect. But that's not a team that, even if they get it to Sean Watson, I mean, it would help. But if they get to Sean Watson, they're probably robbing Peter to pay Paul. Like Burns, see if we want him as part of the package. Chin, that's a really useful hybrid defender. Yeah, we want him and a bunch of first round picks. So I think that was the rumor, right? That they wanted two ones and some defensive starters or something like that, I thought. No, I mean, look, Tepper will be willing to do a lot to get to Sean Watson. I would not discount their chances. But again, you're gonna be stripping away a lot of assets. It's not just gonna be picks. It would be players too. So that's why I think Tampa is trying to keep a known commodity together. And I think they're gonna be pretty successful doing that. Everybody else is in some degree of tear down or rebuild. Interesting stuff there. So when it comes to the cap, and I'm not gonna, well, we kind of covered that. It's gonna be really interesting to see what these teams do as far as like when the number is actually set. Are you hearing anything as far as when we can expect it? Do you think it's gonna happen before March 17? Probably. Yeah, probably, but it wouldn't absolutely positive we have to. I mean, the thing is like, do you know it's gonna go up eventually? What's that? I mean, you look at the deal last night, Dak Prescott. I mean, we know the number is gonna be down this year, but beyond that, are they thinking? Yeah, they'll be growth. I mean, these TV, new TV deals will start kicking in. You know, other expanded revenue streams, whatever, you know, they've only stuck their toe in the gambling pool in terms of sponsorships. And, you know, as sports wagering becomes legal in more and more states, you're gonna have, you've already have some arenas where there's brick and mortar sports books right there. Revenue streams look like over time. Well, teams have their own gambling apps as well. So, yes, I think the arrow is trend. And then, you know, people are getting vaccinated for this horrible virus. And, you know, hopefully the worst of that is over. So, yeah, there's a lot of economic trends that are pointing up for the lead. Yeah, and I think a lot is made of the cap probably too much. Like, you know, if it ends up being 188 or 185. Right. You know what I mean? Okay, so maybe that cost you a swing tackle if you've projected the wrong way and you've got a little less than you thought. But so many of these contracts are fungible anyway. You can create cash base where you want it. If you're an owner who's willing to go cash over tap and you think you're close to winning, whether it comes in at 185 or 192, at the end of the day, macro level is not a huge difference. You know, and again, they all know that it's going up in the future. So you can structure deals so that, hey, in 2023, you're going to get a lump sum payment of 50 million bucks. It's fully guaranteed at the time of signing right now for injury skill and cap, but we don't want to take that cap. We want to delay that cap for a couple of years. I mean, Patrick Mahomes did a deal last year. Right. Where he's only making $60 million the first three years. And they got Chris Jones, right? And they, so where there's a will is. Jack, quick general thoughts on that deal last night that Prescott and the Cowboys agreed to. I mean, no trade clause, no more tagging. It's, it's kind of for a player. That's kind of like the perfect contract, right? He got everything he wanted a year ago. Guaranteed. Except more. Yeah. He got everything, he got everything. Like all the parameters that he wanted a year ago, less than five years, no future tag. He was willing to do that a year ago for 33 a year. He's now getting it all that same stuff. And a year where he got hurt, barely playing. And he's doing it at a price point of 40 versus 33. So there's people trying to tell me that this is a win-win or that the Cowboy might well. No, they had his players the whole time. You could have got him for 20, 80 years, two years ago. You could have got him for 33 a year, 11 months ago. And you're paying him 40 while he's coming off a season ending injury. And your offensive line's getting worse. And the cap is not going to be what it's supposed to be this year. And your defense still stinks. Well, you couldn't really build a contender while he's making $300,000 a year. But yeah, the cap's going up. But now he's making 40. And all these other assets who are on team-friendly deals are either not even worth that money anymore, or they're just breaking down physically. Yeah. And the running back another year, 300 odd touches, that it eventually catches up. Yeah. Yeah, Trez. Yeah, Trez are going down there. Yeah, I think the Cowboys, they had to do it. Like if he's your guy, he's going to cost you $40 million under these circumstances. That really wasn't a doubt. Because the worst case for him is he plays it out for 38. And now he's made $70 million for two. And it's either the third tag or he walks and he hits the market. At the very time, the caps should start exploding again. Yeah. Yeah, that's the other thing too. I mean, when this deal's up, he's only going to be 31. Yeah. So, all right, well, let's wrap this up. Let's get some bold predictions from you. Let's talk about Watson really quick. Will he be traded, yes or no? Yes. Yeah. Wow, that's crazy just to think about that. Will the Falcons draft a quarterback? Yeah, I don't see how you don't. Even if it's a developmental guy, a mid-round guy. But, you know, if certain people fall, there could be a case to be made in the second round as well. I don't think they're going to do it at four. Unless somebody doesn't take a quarterback. You know what I mean? I'm assuming you could have quarterbacks, one, two, three. If it's something other than that, then that's a different scenario. OK. How many more years do you see Matt and Julio Jones playing together? One. So this could be the farewell to where you're saying. Well, I think if you're a new regime and you're not invested in that quarterback, you're not emotionally invested in them, you weren't sitting there watching the Super Bowl that they almost won as a member of that organization. You weren't there for draft day. You didn't work them out at BC. You know what I mean? You don't have that sweat every day. You've got to come in and be cold-hearted, calculated decision makers. Because otherwise, you're not going to do what's in the best interest of yourself and the football team. And you look at the inflection points in that contract and when the pendulum starts finally swinging in a way where it's less cumbersome to let go than to keep if we don't think he's our guy for the next three years, and somebody else needs to start getting those reps. Because we think that person is going to be an ascending player for us. And we need to start taking some lumps with him in 20-22, so that by 23 we're where we want to be. Father time is undefeated. And if you look at the quarterbacks of his cohort, Tom Brady's on another point. Like, he's a freak. And they're like, that's whatever. He's an alien. But everybody else, the Flacos, the Roffus Burgers, the Eli Mannings, the Phillip Rivers, that's not Drew Brees. That's shaky ground. Yeah. Last question. And I just started thinking about teams that need a quarterback right now in my head. But is there an off-season move that you think could happen or you've heard things or in discussions that's come up that could happen that no one is really expecting or talking about right now? What would be, in your mind, kind of surprise people but not really surprising to you? When you think about maybe some of these teams that still need a quarterback, I'm thinking of Chicago. I'm thinking of New England possibly. I'm thinking of San Francisco. I mean, Jimmy G. thinks not really. There's rumors about that. But is there anything out there that you're hearing? There are teams that are not settled on their quarterback, even though he's a veteran and even though he makes a lot of money and even though he might be deemed to be in his prime. And even if he's been fairly successful, like David Carr or Garoppolo, those teams, they don't just have one eye on everything else that's going around. They basically have two eyes. We got this guy in our back pocket, but we got our hands on the swivel for opportunities to upgrade through the draft, through free agency or through trades. And then if those moves are made, then there's a trickle-down effect. If the Raiders trade for Russell Wilson, but Seattle's not interested in Derrick Carr, you know, they'd rather call it David Carr before, so they're not interested in Derrick Carr. Then just Derrick Carr get traded to the Washington football team in order for them to have more assets to include in a Russell Wilson trade. Maybe Seattle's interested in Marriota and the other end of that thing. Okay, but now we've got Russell Wilson in Carr. So where is Carr going? And I'll go back to Washington. If Carl Shanahan's able to get to Sean Watson, and I don't know that they're going to have the draft capital to do it. I don't know that they match up as a trade partner as well as potentially Carolina or Miami or some other teams, but then does Garoppolo go back to New England? So I think this thing's kind of going to happen in waves and the first wave is kind of settled, but there'll be another wave coming probably closer to the draft. That could have, I mean, like if you told me there was a three-way trade involving at least two current NFL starting quarterbacks and two arguably top 10 quarterbacks, depending on how much value, you know, completion percentage and some of the things that Carr really excels at, I wouldn't flinch if you told me that there was a three-way trade before the draft that had two top-end NFL starters changing addresses. I wouldn't flinch. There you go. All right. Jason locking for, man, it's great seeing you, man. Likewise, buddy. Can I have everything? Oh, yeah, you know what I'm talking about. Copper. What are you talking about? Right on cue. All the noises. This is now all the noises. We've renamed this episode. I got to have your podcast. All right, Jason. Thanks so much.