 Okay, hello and welcome back to episode 83 of the market maker podcast where I'm joined by Piers Curran co-founder and head of trading and we're gonna talk about some of the major things that have happened in markets this week And it's been pretty incredible week. And so to give you a quick Flavor of what we're gonna discuss for the next Well, I'm not gonna commit to a timeframe, but for the period ahead The Bank of England they hype rates by 0.5 percent Taking the benchmark right now to two and a quarter percent as the higher since 2008 But the pound fell which is slightly Contradiction to normal economic theory so we'll discuss why that happened the Fed the US central bank they hype rates They went for another 75 basis point move higher and actually that might have been a relief to some which normally would have meant that stocks went up Because there was a partial market pricing of a of a hundred basis point rate hike Which did not materialize but stocks actually sold off for quite aggressively so and are still selling off in fact going into The final trading day of the week and Piers before you call me out We'll get to that in a moment in regards to my year-end call because Goldman Sachs have come out with an update and perhaps we can Briefly touch on that when we talk about the Fed as well and then two other big stories from the week Japan has finally Intervened in the currency and appears and I've talked about this for a while But we'll just quickly cover that as well as the first official intervention from Japan since 1998 And then a big story in the banking space You might have seen the FT reporting the credit suice is Considering splitting its investment bank into essentially three parts looking to pivot away from Traditional investment banking and focus more on wealth management, but can their new management team pull that off What is their strategy? So there the things will discuss before I begin though We did do a bit of a call to arms for our ratings of the pod and so Just a quick one be amazing if you could rate the show if you enjoy the episode or if you're a regular listener would super appreciate that We saw the Spotify ratings go from 256 up to 276 In the last week so good effort, but we need to hit that 300 marker and you could be that person to get us there So help us out and just to make it a bit interesting The Apple voters are a lot more complacent complacent voters Yeah, whereas the Spotify voters seem very motivated to get out there. So come on Apple guys Let's let's keep keep the pace, but um, yeah Please do drop us a rating it would be goes a long way to help get this out to a lot of people So let's kick things off then talk about about Fed So they've hiked interest rates by 75 basis points for the third consecutive meeting Some might have thought At least they didn't go for a hundred And that would have normally meant that stocks would go up in a kind of relief type reaction but the opposite happened and There was additional information of course which accompanied this particular meeting because it was one of those quarterly ones so March June set deck when they released their economic forecasts and perhaps Pierce you could Take us through those and why and what was the trigger then that's weighed on US equities? Yeah, definitely an important sort of week for sure an important Moment in the week was obviously that Fed meeting Wednesday night. I guess there's a simple way to kind of explain what happened and then Which we'll start with and then we can kind of drill into the kind of finer detail, but the simple fact of the matter is basically Powell in the press conference again has kind of shifted his sort of Outlook Let's say if you go back earlier in the year. I mean, obviously they've been raising rates all year inflation staying high and they're continuing to raise rates, okay? Fine, but the messaging about I guess the potential impact these higher rates might have has changed So I think back earlier in the year power was of the opinion that look, we're gonna have to raise rates here But it doesn't mean we're gonna have a recession. It was basically saying we could probably avoid a recession Okay, then in the summer he kind of shifted to going well We're probably gonna have a recession, but he was kind of talking about a soft landing So look, we got we got a raise rates faster. You know this inflation thing's a bit more of a problem than we thought So we're probably gonna have a recession, but don't worry. It's going to be a mild one And I think now he's really shifted again too We're gonna have to raise rates for you know faster for longer. They'll be higher And you know what and actually here's the quote he said we have got to get this is a direct quote from Wednesday night We have got to get inflation behind us. I wish there was a painless way to do it there isn't Basically translates to look we're probably on for a hard landing now So I think that that that's the kind of takeaway from Wednesday night that the recessionary impact of this Rate hiking cycle is now going to be worse So with these projections then so that's like the that's a great summary Of the situation. So let's delve into some of the numbers then and yeah to have a look at a couple So for context then in these quarterly projections, they will tell us market participants about things like their forecasting over things like inflation jobs growth and the big one which is where they see interest rates so officials coalesced around expectations of unemployment rate to rise To 4.4 percent they previously or the current rate is 3.7 percent. They expect GDP to slow to 0.2 percent for 2022 Rising slightly in the following years to a longer term rate of 1.8 but the big one That traders will look at is immediately to the the dot plot matrix. Yeah interest rates. So again just to recap This is where we will get a visual Chart with literally dots on it, which if you weren't educated about what that was you'd be a bit like What on there? What the heck is that but essentially Without knowing who specifically but we can have pretty educated guesses by the general stances of each Fed officials kind of communication on policy It plots them and where they see interest rates at the end of this year and each subsequent year thereafter And every quarter we're able to map over What the shape of interest rates looks like connecting the median Dot plots So what was the shift in the dot plots then this time? Right and so this is that finer detail as to really what drive the big market reactions that we saw and yeah I mean as you said To put even more simply the dot plot is really the feds method of forward guidance It's just them telling us what they themselves think Interest rate changes will look like in the future and and and this is where we've seen the big shift and we've seen massive shifts In this dot plot and as you said right Plot your dot for the end of each year And I think it's the 2022 end of 2022 dots Plot and and really now into 2023 So it's the front end of this dot plot curve that's key and it's the front end of the curve That's massively gone up throughout the whole year and it's stepped higher again so just for context in Well, if you went back let let let's make this really dramatic if you go back 12 months Okay So go back to the september 2021 Dot plot matrix. So on on that matrix. They had the forecast for interest rates at the end of 2022, right So back then a year ago the fed themselves were predicting that interest rates at the end of 2022 would be zero It's trying to get no change no rate heights at all obviously That was spectacularly wrong. So I guess that does maybe in one sense dilute the sort of relevance importance accuracy Of this, I mean you would have thought but It still plays a massive role in influencing market pricing But so if we skip on right so in December 2021 They were telling us rates at the end of this year would be 1% okay, so In three months they took their end of 2022 rate forecast from zero to 1% which is was a big jump, right March 2022 Their forecast moved up to 2% So now again another 1% jump in in year-end forecasting in june Right. So this I presume it'd be this is where the leap comes right that bury invasion of ukraine Exactly. So in june, they told us that year-end rates would be at three and a half percent Right. That was a 1.5% jump on the on the previous and then last this week Their year-end prediction went from three and a half percent to four and a half percent Essentially, well, it's basically between four and four and a half percent. Okay so yet again year-end Rate forecasts have jumped like a lot And and we're now up to this kind of four to four and a half percent range also The 2023 dots also jumped from three and a half Up to what's now basically between four and a half and five So that's yeah And the big thing there That was the one that immediately stood out to me was that people are thinking the recession is coming They're going to quickly start cutting rates But that we're talking about these projections are where our interest rates at the end of the year Yeah, in 2023 they actually see rates higher than when they see them ending in 2022 and that was critical Correct. And really the summer rally in stocks Was based on the idea that the fed would start to slow down their rate hiking And we were thinking You know, maybe september they might hike 50 Maybe november, maybe they'll do 25 or 50. They won't be hiking at all in december And then when we get into next year, they'll start cutting That was the thought in the summer that drove the stock market rally Obviously, that's now wrong Um, the fed aren't slowing down their rate hikes So the forecasting then because we still got two meetings to go this year, right and currently based off the dot plot That's another 75 hike in november and another 75 hike in december Maybe 50 to 75 in december Right. So And then we're actually forecasting another hike in february now So we're hiking into next year and then not Expecting rate cuts at all, right? So it's an incredibly You know, again, it's been the direction of travel here where we keep sort of adjusting We keep hawkishly adjusting our fed expectations It's been the absolute pattern For the last 12 months. We thought we were going to stop having to hawkishly adjust But sadly that's not the case So goldman's came out with a note last night and as you described that's the pattern of interest rate hikes that they see They actually see the peak of funds rate between four and a half to 4.75 percent That's broadly in line with that terminal rate of 4.6 and the the feds forecast The interesting part here is that goldman's now have cut their year end Target. I'm setting myself up here for a bit of a brutal bashing from peers But goldman's have slashed their year end target for the s&p the 3600 from 4300 but wait They based that on higher rates weighing on valuations, but the kicker which you'll particularly enjoy Is that goldman said the risk to the latest forecast are skewed to the downside Because of the rising odds of recession a scenario that would reduce corporate earnings widen the gap and push the u.s equity benchmark to a trough of 3150 Okay, that's that like outside bear most bearish case scenario Yeah, but then base case is 36 base case 36 bearish scenarios No one's interested in goldman's all right They were out for I mean what? End of year forecast was 4300 now they're going. Oops. Sorry guys got that wrong. Oops. Yeah, that's a no I stick to my guns. No one cares about goldman's what people really want to know about Is the antony chung year-end forecast Because you I think you're at 4600. Is that right? Well, yeah, you look I I I don't want to fall into this camp that you just said where You know, there's a it's being stubborn or keeping my credibility Well, I mean on the chart there's obviously is Many of our listeners will know there's a big level which is the summer low in june Which was that initial trough before the summer rally that we had Where we went from basically 36 50 all the way up to north of 4300. Yeah You know, so pierce wasn't so confident when we were smashing through 4k and heading to 4300 at the time So, you know, let's see because I remember the stat that we said before about We've never broken down further from a bearish move I think it was a stat we covered in a couple of other podcasts a while ago. This would be unprecedented if that happened The odds are rising against me at this point That's that's not right. What are you suggesting that it would be unprecedented for the market to break the summer low and go lower In terms of not in history, but going back to the date that I believe was what the second world war Right So it's happening. It's gonna happen summer lows That 3600 day if you go back on the chart, it's a key flexion point of for sure from a support in february 21 Yeah to a high during the kind of the rally back from the covet dip in late 2020 Big level and if we break that then massive. Yeah, that would be huge. You get a quick run down pretty quick Snap to 34 which was the pre-covid high And then there's a double bottom and another key level comes in at 3200 below Yeah, yeah that so we're trading 37 the low there We're about 100 points now in the s&p away from testing that key level. So yeah next week Let's make a break for me. Well, you know what's well just so just to bring the listeners up to speed because um, you know the best The best kind of lead indicator Well, the best indicator For market sentiment like globally Let me reveal it to this is a this is a high value big reveal here. The best indicator is Antony Chung's holiday schedule So whenever he goes on holiday Markets just collapse and tank Uh sentiment just It gets destroyed. Do you know what he's going on holiday listeners next week? So I just hope that the fallout is so severe that the fed go full board pivot to we'll do whatever it takes And then we just well here's the problem with that right because whilst Whilst maybe in the past that was the case right the fed were perhaps kind of held hostage by the stock market And whenever they're going look we need to raise rates in the stock market to sell off they go. Oh god. All right fine We won't Not anymore right pals in this mode where he's Really He now believes rightly or wrongly and time will tell but he and his team believe that the only way to get inflation down Is to actually Reduce demand right so One way the convention way is to raise interest rates cost of borrowings higher people borrow less they they spend less so that that kind of dampens demand and Price pressures kind of drop. All right, but he thinks he needs to go further and he needs to drive the unemployment rate up They they believe they've got to create a recession They have to they have to drive the unemployment rate up people losing their jobs then they're going to stop spending So that that's they that's how aggressively they're thinking here about how to To overcome this inflation problem raising rates isn't enough They have to drive that recession Destroy demand. That's the the the downside scenario that goldman's talk about about the further Impact that it would have on corporate valuations through the fallout of their earnings essentially Yeah Cool. Well, look, let's let's uh, let's pivot away from the fed And let's talk about the bank of England because I know you're a big fan And the bank of England have hiked interest rates for the seventh increase in a row. They've actually been hiking At every meeting since december It's hard to kind of remember. Yeah, they were the they were the first of the kind of Developed economies to start hiking So so rates now the higher since the the infamous 2008 and couple things before we delve into the the key part which was the The bank of England came out and they also lowered their forecast for peak inflation From what was I think it was 13.3 percent originally. They're now looking at less than 11 And suggested a deep recession might be averted because of some of the actions taken since liz trust and upm has come in particularly around this energy relief plan but the biggest talking point undoubtedly is I don't want to again dramatize it, but the utter chaos Going on in inside the building on thread needle street, which is where the bank of England is located because the vote split was quite radical I'd love to be a fly on the wall when they were debating this one out But what you were at you were outside the building and it's just around the corner from our our office So you you were outside you walked up and we're right. So could you actually hear them? Like screaming and shouting and arguing. Yeah. Yeah. I could hear glass glasses smashing I could hear everything but five five of them voted for a 50 basis point increase so they got their way Three though voted for 75 Yeah arguing that incoming fiscal support will also Add to demand so it kind of feeds through on what you've just explained with the u.s and what the fed trying to Counteract in that sense with higher unemployment, but then one I'm probably going to say her name incorrectly. So I apologize upfront, but swatty dingra Voting in her first meeting. She I believe was a professor at LSE in london This is her first meeting. She was the lone voice. So you got a you know, I've got admiration for her Play in that sense first meeting Stepping up to the plate and she went no, you're all wrong particularly She's wanted a zero point two five percent increase She cited concerns that activity was weakening and the risk of second round inflation Effects are falling Was her general thesis for her rationale But yeah, your take my take is I'm in her camp. I just wish she'd gone a little bit more Like and voted for no change If I I think I think if I was on the committee and and look I will never in my life ever be invited to join the committee Too many too many skeletons in your closet, but if I was I would have voted unchanged I think Yeah, the the fed the us is a whole different ball game to the uk. So the fed hiking, you know, fine. I get it Maybe that's right and justified. I think the uk I think we've got trouble coming and I think we need to stop hiking like now But so I wish she'd have gone just a little bit more braver But she was super brave and yeah, as you say stepping out and being that lone wolf is it takes a lot so I I put out a comment on linkedin after this saying that in my 20 years in markets I'd never seen The monetary policy committee of nine people Have three different Uh interest rate actions, so they vote nine of them as you're saying I I thought I'd never seen it where there's three different outcomes from the nine um, but I got corrected Someone messaged back going that you're wrong. It has happened in the last 20 years Uh, and it was in 2011 So they were and there they voted unchanged but you had um, a couple of people voting for 25 hike And then Andrew sentence voting for a 50. I remember he was the uber uber hawk, wasn't that's right Um, so it has happened In my lifetime. Obviously I forgot about that but anyway, it's super super super unusual um, look you could argue that The whole point of a committee. I mean really You should you should be forming the committee With the objective of having different opinions Right, there's no point having a committee where everyone just seems the same You know the whole point is right. What are the opposing opinions and let's kind of argue it out and and let's decide so um, I think you should always have a spread of You know this idea that unanimous which the ecb love to roll out Like the guards favorite word were unanimous. Well, I don't want I don't want you to be unanimous. There's probably some political overlay though on the unity of the eurozone and all the rest of it For sure, but look, I I think I think it's a reflection of just So this time they had yeah One saying 25 basis points most going 50 a few going 75 the point is It's so difficult The outlook is so uncertain It's an incredibly difficult moment in time and right you're getting a more of a spread of opinion and that kind of makes sense But it's a reflection of really No one really knows. I think they're just they're in the dark here They're literally in the dark and it's just doing it because everyone else is I mean, they were brave and they hiked first I think they should be brave and stop hiking first and and I just wish Well, maybe they'll do it next meeting but That's my view and so the uk Mini budget Has just come out Is there anything in there that people should be aware of that might impact the bigger picture Well, you there's a whole load of stuff, but you can bet your bottom dollar what the big headlines will be And that's that they've chopped the higher rate of income tax. They've removed it So the 45 band Which is on when does that kick in But is it above a hundred thousand? Thought 45 was 150 it was 150,000 right fine. So the bands are It's it's it's no income tax up to 12 and a half thousand Then between 12 and a half thousand and 40 odd Is 20 percent and they're actually lowering that band from 20 percent to 19 percent that kicks in april next year Then above 40 odd grams It's 40 percent and then above 150 grand. It's 45 percent. They've scrapped that top one Which is obviously going to get the headlines because everyone's going to be up in arms about oh, it's just a budget for the rich The rich are just going to get richer You know, it's just not fair Blah blah blah that'll be that'll be addition to scrapping bankers bonus caps, right? So yeah, here you go bankers. You can have your massive bonuses back and oh, we won't tax it as much either Press are going to have a field day with this But look, this is a massive massive budget. They're calling it a mini budget. It's the biggest budget I've seen like for years and years. This is properly pivoting like a massive pivot in in policy towards big tax cuts across the piece and you know reducing regulation and unashamedly Going out there with a big aggressive bold very risky move Of how do we sort out our big issues? Well, let's try and do it through big tax cuts, which we think will drive growth They want to grow. They want to grow us out of this problem Um, and look, there are big issues with the uk. I was reading a piece in the ft earlier this week Which was a really good one and raising the the issue around our current account deficit Which is right now a record ever It's the it's we've got the biggest current account deficit ever in our history Going back to when data on this kind of stuff started to be measured. So really it's back to 1955 We right now have the biggest current account deficit. We've had ever on record going back to 1955 So this is a big issue and it kind of ties into I think The problems we have here in the uk and so just Super quickly. What's the current account deficit? Well, it's just looking at the basically think about your current account And right money coming in and money going out, right? So your money coming in if you're working, right? That's your salary coming in and then obviously what you're spending Okay, and if you've got a deficit that means you're just there's more money going out each month Van is coming in and obviously that's not sustainable Um, you have to close that gap and how do you close the gap? Well, it could be through borrowing money or it could be through international investment coming in So the country so what's happened the big widening of the deficit has primarily been driven by the sharp increase in gas prices Because of the russia invasion of ukrain and because the uk import a load of gas and we're very we're more dependent on gas than other European nations for our energy and so this is this is the main reason but underlying all of that is really a slow kind of trend Over the last couple of decades where the uk has just become less and less and less and less competitive less attractive as a as an investment destination and so You know, we're sat here with this monster deficit and the government right now I think they've I think it's part of their plan here is looking at this deficit and going jeez we we need to We need to do something about it. I actually You know this this budget Yes, it's controversial Yes, they are going to get slammed in the press Personally, I think this is brave And I I support it just because we need to shake things up You know, we can't just Keep on shugging along because we're going in the wrong direction. So I think it's bold and it's a big change And and and I like it whether it will work. Sure. It's risky For sure, but they're trying to attract in More foreign investment. I mean the pound is super cheap Um, so that should definitely help, right? So, yeah, we'll see but they're going to get slammed in the press for this Yeah, just having a look on the chart actually sterling has just weakened again Just in the last few moments actually while you are talking You've just knocked the pound lower again by uh a full point actually Yeah It just broke down in price, uh, Maurici. So we're actually trading Just hit lows down in the 110 Yeah, it's it's crazy Now for the for the pound. So the direction of sterling then in in contrast to What's happening as described at the Fed where rates are going to go higher multiple times Compared to stopping at the bank of England as you're suggesting. So what does that mean for the parity outlook here? Well What's interesting just thinking about the currency space a bit more broadly and we'll talk about the yen in a minute But the dollar has obviously been Super super powerfully strong all year And that's because the federal reserve have been aggressively hiking You know faster than most other banks and are expected to continue to hike for longer than most other banks And therefore this monetary policy divergence is driving dollar appreciation against everything What's interesting though is then when you think about the other side of that all right the dollar strengthening We get it But think about the other side of it and you think about the euro and the pound and the yen right and they've all been Super weak versus the dollar now when you think about the euro and the yen Well The ECB have only just started hiking rates So fine the monetary policy divergence is huge. Okay Japan aren't even hiking So that's the absolute maximum divergence right But when you think about the pound you can't say the same thing You can't tell me well there's a massive monetary policy divergence between the Fed and the bank of England because there isn't The the bank of England hiked first And are continuing to hike So there underlies the actual issue for the pound is is not necessarily the monetary policy divergence, although it's a factor It's actually just underlying economic outlook being really bad for the uk And so whilst the the bank of England are hiking The pound's dropping anyway because of that kind of economic situation. So will it Will it hit parity? I'd said to you I think you asked me that I think a few weeks ago and I laughed it off Saying don't don't be silly But here we are 110 handle And I don't know now I I still wow, I want to still stick to my guns and so I don't think we will get to parity but For that view to be right This big move from the uk government has to work quickly And I don't know if it will work quickly these things don't Don't happen quickly. So And given the rate height cycle in the us is likely not to finish until february. Yeah and conditions generally anticipating to deteriorate Europe here For the end of this year in q4 Yeah, if the if the bank of England start do a dovish pivot and start talking about That we're at the peak i.e. We're not going to hike rates anymore And if they even go further and start to think about Into 23 in a recession and starting to think about having to cut they start talking like that in the next one month Then you may well get parity But I don't think they will I don't think they'll be brave enough So I I'm still sitting on my camp on in the camp where we won't get Down to parity dollar against the pain. Okay. I thought you were going to do a goldman's then and flip flop every five minutes All right, so two more things To wrap up on japan as you mentioned has taken action on their currency directly It comes as japan's currency hit a 24 year low And we've talked about this for a while. It wasn't really a case of if but when I guess the worrying thing for japan is the price of dolly yen It's the most common pairing of currencies that the market looks at it was trading at 146 When they intervened it dropped to close to 140 But this morning they're already back up trading a 143 handle So we've reversed 50 of the entire intervention in less than 24 hours Big problem, surely yeah, I mean it's it's like It's like It's like you're there's like this massive juggernaut coming Towards you, right? And that that's the dollar yen Moving and trending and the yen weakening and the dollar appreciating and this juggernaut's coming towards you and the central bank have just stepped out in front of it to try and stop it Except what are they using to try and stop it like some like a toothpick or something? Right the and to put that in numbers Because well firstly, how do they intervene? Well, they've literally directly intervened last time was 1998 so they've literally stepped into the currency market because The japan have foreign currency reserves. They hold a lot of dollars Okay, in fact We think roughly it's about one trillion dollars They have right And what they've done here is they've taken some of these dollars and they've sold the dollars and they bought yen So directly acting in the currency market with a monster trade to force The yen to appreciate because of their market impact with this massive trade. Okay But they've got what they've got about one trillion dollar war chest so they could just carry on trying to intervene and intervene and intervene but To put it into context, do you know the value of the What's the daily average volume that trades dollar yen spot market Average daily volume is 1.1 trillion dollars. Right. So their entire reserve Is less than one single day Of volume it's good stuff. So that's your toothpick, right and the and the issue I guess They're not stupid though. I mean they they I don't think they Genuinely think They with that single method can just stop this trend What what they're trying to do is create uncertainty. So their tactic is right Don't be transparent. Don't say right. We are going to intervene again On the 10th of october and we will sell You know 10 billion dollars and we'll buy yen and it's going to be on the 10th of october and it's going to be that amount That's not the play. The play is just just don't tell anyone. So it's like we could do it at any moment at any time In whatever volume we like up to a trillion, right, which is a lot So that creates uncertainty and I think what they're trying to do is force out some of the short positions There's obviously a huge amount of open positions in this currency trend following positions and I think they're just trying to spooks them out and they're just trying to Maybe maybe they won't halt the trend, but they're they're going to slow it down Possibly you could argue because of that uncertainty they've introduced And maybe that's enough because they're probably thinking look the fed can't They can't carry on hiking 75 basis points every time Indefinitely, we will reach an end to this fed hawkish pivot, right? So just they've just got to get to that moment in time that moment in time is now a bit further down the track than we thought But you know, it's it's going to come And that's where the rest bite will that that's the only way this currency market will reverse trend Is when the fed changed direction. Yeah That's a great great stat because I think people Who are not people of markets? They often just think the stock market the stock market buying apple shares and tesla That's that's the big market. Yeah, it's a minnow. Oh, yeah Compared to the forex market. Well, there's more money trades through forex than all other assets combined by easily more and look, that's that is actually because It doesn't if you trade anything there's often a currency Transaction ahead of it if I want to buy apple shares Well, I'm in the uk with my pains. Well, apple shares are denominated in dollars I have to change my pains to dollars first Then buy apple shares. Yeah So, yeah Cool, well final thing to wrap up is credit suice and they've had Quite obviously an awful time of it in many different ways of late from scandal to scandal but One of the big things here that I wanted to ask you was this idea of splitting up Is the strategy to less independence on investment banking and pivot towards wealth management And ala ubs in the last decade or so who've done that with success. Yeah, so Just a little bit more about the The idea behind that strategy from your perspective Yeah, I mean, I think the new CEO I should get his name there. I don't know, you know, but he came in in the summer um and and his brief from the board of directors was Be aggressive Make radical change because We're not doing very well and we're kind of on the wrong path. And so, yeah This is about as radical as as you can kind of get it. I would say I think it makes a lot of sense. It's kind of back to their roots It's much lower risk lower volatility kind of revenue streams of wealth management You know going going back to their core and the Uh, they're going to sell off their securitized products business, which is actually based in new york Uh, and actually is their most profitable part of the business um That kind of brings in about three to four billion revenue a year. I think so just just for clarity What is a securitized product? Oh, well, okay. Yeah, it's basically taking loans packaging them up And selling them. So yeah, yeah And that's that sounds like awfully reminiscent of A bygone era. It's massive. It's massive business, right? But it's risky You know as we saw in 2008 Um, if you get yeah, if you get on the wrong side of that that could be super bad So they're they're kind of getting rid of that. Um, that does bring issues for their Tier one capital ratio But we won't delve into that today. But um, so they're getting rid of that securitized products business They're going to then set up a like like a bad bank and put all the toxic stuff and just look Let's just get it off our balance sheet. Let's just stick it over here. Love that Love that financial engineering And then pretend it doesn't exist And then you're left with their core, which is look, let's just get back to the basics You know, let's go back to our roots and it's wealth management, and I think it makes it makes a lot of sense But but yeah, and then an urik kurna who's the guy just come in importantly Guess where he came from uh The regulators side. I don't know he came from UBS having done the transition already He served as a member of the group of executive board for 11 years at UBS I did not know that okay makes it was part of the asset management division right his background um, so Yeah, he's uh He's he's the man for the job if this is the the direction they want to head in couldn't couldn't really pick a better person I guess in that sense. Yeah Um Cool. Well, look, let's wrap it up there Um, thanks as always for everyone for listening And for peers obviously joining me on the on the call Please do check out some of the links in the show notes to our daily newsletter Feel free to connect with with me and peers on linkedin. Obviously, we're here to serve you the community So, you know, if being connected to us can help you broaden your network then absolutely go for it We'd love to we'd love to help Yeah, and if you've got any topics or questions that you'd like us to kind of address or cover What's the best way To get to kind of put questions to us. Yeah, look, um, absolutely happy to have people email me directly So Yeah, I might regret that but my email address is a dot chung. So a dot c h e un g At amplified trading dot com. So hit me with any suggestions any ideas actually reminds me someone did ask us They have to comment on our youtube video saying what is our favorite trading? film Yeah What are you gonna question? I can't mention like lots. You just got to pick one. I can't mention lots. I was going to mention lots, but Well, maybe maybe give the run through of what the library is and then well, I was going to mention my top three. Okay, go on um And probably in order of so in third place on my list margin call Okay Second place You've got to be of an age for this one, uh wall street If your number one is what I think it is your top three is exactly not just the same but the same order as mine Oh, really? Well, it's probably yeah. I mean the best is the best. It's the big short Oh Oh, you've gone somewhere else big shorts on my four All right. Yeah, big short is my favorite Trading places is my favorite. Oh, okay trading places sits right at the top Only about that one. Absolutely hilarious film I actually think they do a pretty good job Explaining what it is that they do these guys. That's great shout. I completely forgot about that But again, we're winding back the years then this was eddie murphy peak in the 80s. It's so good Yeah, basically, yeah go out there. There's your top four go and go and watch them highly recommended Cool. All right. Cheers. Peace Have a good weekend. See you later