 Welcome to Jill asset news. My name is Robin. Welcome to 2023. I have to tell you 2022 is not our best year I can totally agree with a lot of people on that one But there's some things that are going on Right now in the crypto market and if we zoom out, I think it can give us a better picture about what's going on So let's just jump right in the first thing you're going to notice here Is that I want to take a look at just the big overall picture of monthly return tables this is uh from uh ben's website and the cryptiverse link in the description And uh, we can see that's you know in all honesty. I mean so far. It's it's january 2nd 2023 And we're doing pretty good. We're up one whole percent. So everybody's happy about that But I want to take a look at how things are As far as as it pertains to cycles And what's happening and what I want to do is just break it down by if we take a look at the four-year cycles There's what I call the reset years and those are two years after the all-time high That was that would be 2015 2019 and coincidentally 2023 and when I'm talking about four-year cycles as a as far as like a quick review Of course, everything starts with the halving right 2012 a halving and we had an all-time high Then a dip and a reset. So in this situation 2013 was the all-time high the reset years Our year was 2015 same thing here in 2016 We had a halving all time. I was 2017 reset year was 2019 Of course, we're doing this again. The all-time high was 2021 the reset year was 2023 And what I wanted to see real quick was what are the prices? In the reset years the very beginning because I think when we can zoom out on that It'll help a lot of people and this is what we got And it's amazing to me how people forget just how far along we've come in 2015 the first reset year Again, here's out the other night. Bitcoin's price was $314 314 In 2019 two years at the all-time high. It was 3794 I remember those I remember that year. It was awful because I started investing in 2017 and Just saw everything took a big dive in 2018 85 90 95 99% in some case of my altcoins and now in 2023 as of january 1st. We're at 16,728 again, these are on The reset years and what I want to take a look at then is just jump back because these percentages are, you know, They're cute. They're nice or adorable. They can they can tell some things but to get a real picture of things About what's going on and then I will just remind everybody that January as far as the reset years are not good months just because You know in january right now. We're at 0.95 percent or 1 percent doesn't mean we can't go lower what I want to take a look at was just what that looks like As far as for these reset years and again january 1st some around here $300 It looks in the direction of a Going up Very simple 2015. That's that's what it should look like As far as like the reset years not what it should look like but what it does look like or did look like the same thing can be said for 2019 it was pretty much an up year and of course there was some sign always action a little bit of decline But again looking pretty good now if we take a look here At 2014 this is one year after the all-time high. Remember all time. I was 2013 2017 2021 in those years one year after the all-time high. I called that the dip year It looks exactly what it's what it sounds like. It's just a negative Going lower pattern the same thing can be said for 2018. That was an awful awful year again Just keeps going down down down as opposed to those reset years and then of course not to leave it out, but In 2022, I mean what it looked like just a big catastrophe just going down so in all those years that's what we look like And coincidentally even in 2022 We had this assumption that we had hit the all-time lows But one thing to note is that in 2015 we hit the low Of 172 that was 85 from the peak And then 2018 it is 84 percent and those happened december And january january and december now. We thought it was in june of 2022 that was wrong and we thought well, maybe in november That's the all-time low which it was for 2022, but I don't think That is the low for the four-year cycle. I still think We could go down to 12k or 10k and if history is any indicator and again any kind of Past performance is not indicative of future results But there are some similarities and of course 85 percent Last in cycle 284 85. So i'm thinking somewhere around there, but I could be wrong So what I want to take a look at is okay now. We're on the right track, you know We're in we're in 2019 or excuse me. We're in 2023 And we are going in this direction of the reset years How would that look like for dollar cost average and we had talked about this before But I wanted to make this a little bit more Graphically available to people and what I'm taking a look at here Is bitcoin if we invested $100 every week since 2018 There's a great website dca-cc.com links in the description. You can check that out But you can see right here that if we did $100 for every week starting in the the worst year The dip year not the reset year not not two years after the all-time high We would have invested $20,000 To bitcoins all-time high hopefully you hit it and you sell at the at the exact moment that hits high But chance are you want but this is what it could have done You would have had a 7x now in 2018 you would have been eating crow for quite some time And he'd been pretty nervous and there's a lot more risk So just remember that Now let's take a look at what I call the reset year and the reset year was 2019 That's when things were starting to go up a little bit and you can just tell just taking a look here that You're not underwater that gold line right there. You're not as underwater as as much as used to be and What's interesting to note that you would invest in 15,000 you would have had roughly 100,000 99,433 As far as an appreciation if it has sold the all-time high But look at the game for the more risk you have only a 7x versus a 6.5x and that of course gets me It's what I talk about as far as diversification. Here's how I diversify right now. Most of it's in cash 1% is in stables. I got some D gen plays master rick's facts last year as of art Mostly it's land and real estate Amazon business staking crypto 1% in the IRA and and a little bit of into stocks But I like to diversify a little bit and that's why because it's all about how much risk to reward Okay, getting back to this one now. Let's just say that I'm like, you know what I don't want to deal with any risk I just want to wait till the bitcoin having Which was in 2020 just kind of start to do that and you could you would invest at almost 10,000 And you've got 42,000 back, which is pretty great in all honesty. You would have forexed If you would have meant starting in january 1st, 2020 again, the more risk you take sometimes The better off you have as far as the returns. This is not financial advice. You can do whatever you want to I'm not your father But that's just what it is now. Let's just say I'm like, I don't want to do any risk Let me just start investing when we're hitting the bull run and you could But she'd go from $4,600 to 60 785 if you've done $100 per week now Let's go down that list. Let's take a little bit more risky into altcoins So ethereum by the start of january 1st, I would have done a 16x again In 2018 that was the dip year now the reset year in 2019. Take a look at this You would have done a 17x On the reset year again, what are the reset years 2015 2019 2023? So isn't amazing that you hit you took more risk, but you'd had less of a return Now you would have more money, but the return the 17x is what we're talking about Let's just say you wait again. I'm like, I'm just gonna wait till the you know the bitcoin having and You could have done 11x 100 bucks a week or on the Bull run You would have a whopping 2x. Congratulations. It's something right Now let's go down even farther down the altcoin rabbit hole and do this Let's take cardano. If you start in 2018, you would have done a 35. I should have put 19,300 in and got 686,000 This is interesting If you would wait for the reset year again 2015 19 2023 you would have a 39x again not as much money But your return is a heck of a lot better for a lot less risk And this is of course crypto the riskiest asset that's out there If you'd wait till 2020 not too bad 26x and then during the bull run just a paltry 3x And now this is the most important part. I need you to remember this and burn this into your brain, which is this Just because you're into crypto doesn't mean everything's going to go up And that's what I call a dash of salt There are some products that will never come back some products that are vastly under performing And these are two of them Dash I'm nothing against dash personally. I don't really care. It's just an investment But if you had done dash $100 per week Starting on January 1st, 2018 and you would have sold the top, which is about a 3x Do you really want to do that for four years in a very risky asset class? Why would you do that? And here's another another example salt Salt was the next big thing as far as lending platform centralized. I might add I don't care how much you DCA you're not coming back from this $17 to the all-time high And just pretty much flat line now. It's roughly three cents as of today So that's what we have again past performance is on indicative of future results And that'll leave me to my last point because even though this all looks great And a lot looks good and looks like this could actually happen any day now We're in a different environment. First time we've ever done quantitative tightening And that's where the fed reduces their balance sheet or some of their holdings on their balance sheet And start to sell things off. This is from new york fed.org And you need to see this last one here change from the prior week about 12 billion dollars So they're taking off 12 billion per week. Let's just round up and just say it's about 60 billion Maybe 80 billion per month as they start to unwind all the different things they bought and kind of propped up all these things So that's going to keep happening which is going to Lead to a little bit more of of pain and heartache in the traditional finance world and in the crypto world So just remember Quantitative easing we've done quite a bit of quite a bit of that printing money quantitative tidying first time ever And they got to take a lot off because guess what they did They printed a ton of money And you can just see here. This is the m2 money supply growth versus inflation This is from long-term trends.net link in the description M2 money stock is a measure for the amount of currency and circulation It includes m1 physical cash and checkable deposits as well as less liquid money such as savings bank accounts I got to tell you when the first glance doesn't look too hot So this red is inflation and of course in the blue or black or whatever navy blue You want to call it a black is the m2 growth rate and you're going to see here after coronavirus Uh, we had an m2 growth rate of 26 27 percent, which is the highest in history Now what's interesting here is that you see this inflation rate? 2.6 5 percent so on and so forth it peaked out at around 8.54 But it's been coming down It's amazing that it's actually there and this is actually coincides with one of our One of our friends over there at trueflation trueflation.com link in the description And this takes the chain link The oracle to pull an outside data to get real-time assessment of what inflation actually is and the trueflation year-over-year rate right now for the united states Is looking pretty good. It's not the 7 percent that the m2 money suppliers Inflation is looking at we're looking at 7 percent or somewhere around there as far as inflation But it's going down in the right direction and I got to tell you that makes me quite bullish Unfortunately, if we take a look at the uk Not looking too good for our friends across the pond looking pretty pretty bleak But again, and I'll finish this up by saying this This is a much different environment than what we've ever been in because we've bitcoin has never gone through Actually, people say it's never gone through a war but America has been enough was an afghanistan for decades to do okay during that time And it's of course bitcoin never gone through a pandemic Worked out okay in that situation and now we're talking about money tightening and an economic repression or not a depression But a recession and bitcoin has never been through that I think it was just one more thing But if we can take a look at what we just saw I think that there's still gains to be had moving forward Anyhow, so that is what we have for today if you like today's video Give it a thumbs up consider subscribing You do most of the things we talk about as far as news but today a little bit different Just to give some people a little bit of bullishness not to say that I am a hundred percent bullish But I think it's a step in the right direction. 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